1/36 The COVID-19 pandemic vs Post-Truth By Dr. Jennifer S. Hunt National Security College, Crawford School of Public Policy ANU For the Global Health Security Network, August 2020 2/36 3/36 popularity to run for electoral office, they may even come to directly influence policy-making and public funding. Though the United States is the focus of this report, the impact of COVID-19 conspiracy theories is potentially global. As far away as Melbourne, Australia, demonstrators defied lockdown orders, shouting “Death to Bill Gates!” – a key figure in US-based conspiratorial assertions. Public discussion Executive Summary of the pandemic must take into account the viral spread of conspiracy theories surrounding it and the longer-term impacts of the ‘post-truth’ age in which it thrives. Conspiracy theories constitute a growing challenge to tackling COVID-19. Alongside the global spread Recommendations of the pandemic itself, spurious allegations of hoaxes, cures and secret cabals circumnavigate the global information commons, poisoning debate, eroding community consensus and paralysing pol- icymaking. Conspiratorial assertions challenging the severity of the virus, the need for mitigation 1. Government, in concert with researchers, should work with technology companies and social efforts, and the motives of state and public health communities have moved from the dark corners media platforms to establish programs that actively monitor, target and take down conspiracy of the Internet to Facebook page pages and even elected officials. These narratives undermine pub- theories and associated user accounts for repeat offenders. lic health messages and measures. By eroding trust in institutions and creating confusion over facts, conspiracy theories styme collective action and cooperation. Specifically, these conspiracy narratives 2. Governments should adapt the law enforcement mechanisms used to fight child pornography not only compromise mitigation efforts such as masks and lockdowns, but the associated groups and domestic extremism, and introduce accompanying legislation or statutes to combat conspir- also attempt to overturn these public health mandates for others. Overall conspiracy theory groups acy groups that disseminate extremist content. threaten to derail current public health mitigation mandates as well as future vaccination efforts, 3. Professional associations should update their codes of conduct to include formal review and with longer term impacts around the politization of scientific organisations and personnel. When disciplinary processes for individuals in positions of public trust (e.g. licensed physicians) who violence is rationalized to achieve these objectives, conspiracy theory groups can endanger both endanger public health through promulgation of conspiracy theories. health security and national security. 4. Political parties could include in their election and policy platforms a commitment to professional code of conduct, with sanctions and removal of campaign support for candidates and members Negative Impacts of Conspiracy theories around the COVID-19 pandemic: that fail to adhere to minimum standards around the dissemination of misinformation and con- spiracy theories. • Undermining of mitigation efforts such as facemasks and lockdowns 5. Civil society organisations and professional associations should mobilise their membership net- • Encouraging lower vaccination rates (if or when a vaccine becomes works to target corporate advertising in outlets that promote or facilitate the dissemination of available) conspiracy theories. • Politicisation of scientific institutions, practitioners and researchers • Launching political campaigns of conspiracy theorists In 2019, the Federal Bureau of Investigation declared conspiracy theory groups a form of domestic terrorism. One group identified in the report, QAnon, has leveraged COVID conspiracy theories to re- cruit new members. The group now boasts more than 1 million members in the United States, with branches across 15 countries. Their global reach is accelerated by technological connectivity, their influence expanded by elite cues and partisan messaging. Such conspiracy groups are dangerous in that they posit that certain other groups or individuals are existential threats. Currently the targets of these narratives include the public health officials, state governors, scholars, researchers, philan- thropists and other public figures on the front line of COVID-19 news. As these groups leverage their 4/36 5/36 implications. The same avenues and tactics are being activated to spread misinformation and disin- formation about COVID-19, with significant consequences. Conspiracy theories and alternative facts circulating in the information commons poison debate, erode consensus and paralyse policymaking. By undermining trust in institutions and creating confu- Introduction sion over facts, it also stymes collective action and cooperation both domestically and with interna- From pandemics to climate change, efforts to confront our greatest global challenges are impeded tional partners. The Deputy Secretary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Rose Gotte- by the erosion of trust in science, experts and public institutions. Instead, alternative facts, misin- moeller called “alternative facts a threat to the alliance” as it undermines a sense of shared reality formation and conspiracy theories pollute the information global commons, poisoning debate and and a will to fight together against common challenges.3 As COVID-19 demonstrates, the post-truth paralysing collection action. Conspiracy theories represent a particularly potent strain of misinfor- age comes with a hefty price in both health and economic terms. mation. Their global reach is accelerated by technological connectivity and their influence boosted by algorithms primed for engagement rather than accuracy. Alongside the global movement of the pandemic itself, conspiracy theories blaming technology, religious minorities, immigrants, secret ca- “We’re not just fighting an epidemic; we’re fighting an infodemic.” —Tedros Adhanom Ghebreye- bals and entire countries are spread from the dark corners of the internet to family Facebook pag- es, and even public officials. These conspiracy theories threaten to derail public health mitigation sus (2020), Director-General of the World Health Organization mandates as well as vaccination efforts, and may endanger even endanger scientific communities and institutions. Conspiracy theories can be dangerous, positing that certain groups are existential threats who must be removed by violence. Thus discussion of the pandemic must take into account the viral spread of these groups along the virus itself, and the longer term impacts of the ‘post-truth’ The United States, currently in the grips of what the Director-General of the World Health Organiza- age in which they thrive. tion (WHO) described as an “epidemic and an infodemic”, has recently surpassed 180,000 COVID-19 related fatalities in August 2020 and nearly 6 million cases.4 As a result, the United States will likely be the last OECD country to get COVID-19 under control. In part, these poor outcomes have been Scope: exacerbated by the mainstreaming of conspiracy theories and alternative facts. Conspiracy theo- ries have helped to erode public support and effectiveness of mitigation efforts, undermine public This report examines some of the key challenges and implications of COVID-19 misinformation, fo- trust in institutions involved in tackling the pandemic, and paved the way for conspiracy theorists to cusing particularly on conspiracy theories. Drawing on insights from the field of security studies, this mount their own political campaigns. Throughout, blame has been weaponised, and attacks person- report is intended to augment rather than replicate extant public health and communication liter- alised against public health authorities, researchers, virologists and philanthropists. ature. The United States constitutes the main case study, both as a global hotspot of the pandemic and as an epicentre of misinformation, including serving as the home of technological platforms by In Lexicon of Lies, Dr. Carolyn Jack explores the categorization of “problematically inaccurate lan- 5 which misinformation spreads globally. However, the challenges examined here are not limited to guage that disrupts politics, business and culture.” Between misinformation and disinformation, the United States, and will likely manifest in various countries to varying degrees. Some dynamics intention is key, much in the same way that manslaughter and homicide are differentiated by intent and narratives detailed herein will likely outlive the virus itself, particularly the threat to scientific but not the outcome – in both instances there is a dead body. Conspiracy theories fall within the gap. communities and institutions. Thus these challenges should be explored with a view towards their If they are fervently believed they are not intentionally false, but by their nature conspiracy theories durability and endurance both temporally and geographically. are well outside the standards of evidence and credibility. Pollution of the Global Information Commons Key terminology: “Post-Truth” was the word of the year in 2016,1 recognising a growing public sentiment that facts • Misinformation: Unintentionally inaccurate or misinterpreted information. are no longer persuasive, and that truth is malleable and subject to personal belief rather than ev-