1 PANDEMICS: Past, Present, Future Published in 2021 by the Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Education for Peace and Challenges & Opportunities Sustainable Development, 35 Ferozshah Road, New Delhi 110001, India © UNESCO MGIEP This publication is available in Open Access under the Attribution-ShareAlike Coordinating Lead Authors: 3.0 IGO (CC-BY-SA 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ ANANTHA KUMAR DURAIAPPAH by-sa/3.0/ igo/). By using the content of this publication, the users accept to be Director, UNESCO MGIEP bound by the terms of use of the UNESCO Open Access Repository (http:// www.unesco.org/openaccess/terms-use-ccbysa-en). KRITI SINGH Research Officer, UNESCO MGIEP The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The ideas and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors; they Lead Authors: NANDINI CHATTERJEE SINGH are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. Senior Programme Officer, UNESCO MGIEP The publication can be cited as: Duraiappah, A. K., Singh, K., Mochizuki, Y. YOKO MOCHIZUKI (Eds.) (2021). Pandemics: Past, Present and Future Challenges and Opportunities. Head of Policy, UNESCO MGIEP New Delhi. UNESCO MGIEP. SHAHID JAMEEL Coordinating Lead Authors: Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University Anantha Kumar Duraiappah, Director, UNESCO MGIEP Kriti Singh, Research Officer, UNESCO MGIEP Lead Authors: Nandini Chatterjee Singh, Senior Programme Officer, UNESCO MGIEP Contributing Authors: CHARLES PERRINGS Yoko Mochizuki, Head of Policy, UNESCO MGIEP Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University Shahid Jameel, Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University W. IAN LIPKIN Contributing Authors: John Snow Professor of Epidemiology, Charles Perrings, Professor of Environmental Economics, Vice-Chair, Diversitas, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University; Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University W. Ian Lipkin, John Snow Professor of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Professor of Neurology and Pathology, Health, Columbia University; Professor of Neurology and Pathology, College of College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University B.N. Satpathy, Senior Consultant, Office of Principal Scientific Advisor to the B.N. SATPATHY Government of India Senior Consultant, Suneet Mohan, Consultant, Office of Principal Scientific Advisor to the Office of Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India Government of India Devesh Kumar, Consultant, UNESCO MGIEP SUNEET MOHAN Designed by Prasun Mazumdar Design, Gurgaon, India Consultant, Printed by Lustra Printing Press Office of Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India Printed in India DEVESH KUMAR Consultant, UNESCO MGIEP 3 Preface Please note: The research, and findings presented in this The booklet took about 6 months till its completion. document are based on data collected until January, 2021. It was a herculean task as the goal posts kept changing, we were flooded with new information on a daily basis As the world continues to grapple with COVID-19, regarding a relatively new phenomena. However, as this booklet comes in handy to answer and reflect upon we sailed through uncharted waters and endured the basic questions encompassing the word “pandemic”- the hurdles, we believe we have a story to tell through this what, where, when and how of it. The genesis of the booklet and hope the readers find it useful primarily as book began when we were approached by the Office of an information note on pandemics in general. It also Principal Scientific Adviser to the Government of highlights some of the complexities we have to face India to produce a document that was not meant to be: when making decisions to combat the disease but at (i) a compendium for training individuals on pandemic the same time oversee the welfare of the people across science; (ii) an exhaustive compilation of do’s and don’ts multiple domains and not just linked with the disease. with respect to a pandemic; and iii) a commentary on global best versus worst practices to combat the We acknowledge that an exhaustive evaluation of the pandemic. current pandemic- COVID-19 and its aftermath might not be possible, given that it is still ongoing and we What this booklet does aim to provide is the following: make no such claims. However, we do try to gauge the (i) basic information about key concepts associated with magnitude of its impact on the world we live in and and procedural understanding of the term “pandemic”; derive preliminary inferences based on facts to enhance (ii) a synopsis of past and present pandemics with our understanding. focus on lessons learnt- primarily from COVID-19 and preparedness for future; iii) a brief overview of If there is one thing that the COVID-19 pandemic has mitigation policies adopted by countries across the globe revealed it is the power of oneness- power of global to combat the pandemic iv) an account of direct and coordination, international scientific collaboration, and indirect impacts of pandemic on various sectors of the aligned action in fighting against the virus. We are all society ranging from health, education, to economic, in this together. As we learn to live with the fact that and v) a preliminary inference of its ramifications COVID-19 is here to stay for a while, and continue to on progress towards Sustainable Development Goals acclimatize to the “new normal”, our aim should be (SDGs). Therefore, this booklet should be considered to trust scientific evidence and align our actions in a as a primer on pandemics with the main objective of manner that maximizes “normal” living and minimizes familiarizing its readers with key concepts, measures, inconveniences caused due to the pandemic. We hope lessons and preparedness on pandemics. this booklet will provide its audience with necessary information to help achieve this goal. 5 04 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 9 Q5 38 Q10 66 Q15 102 Executive Summary 10 What are the causes What are the health impacts What have been the Introduction 16 of emerging infectious of COVID-19? economic policies in response diseases? to COVID-19? Q1 18 Q6 42 Q11 74 Q16 106 What is a pandemic and how Which are the main pandemic What health sector specific What have been the overall is a pandemic declared? viruses and what are the key policy responses can be effects of COVID-19 on the differences across them and implemented? SDGs? the type of treatments used? Q2 22 Q7 48 Q12 78 Q17 112 What is the procedure used What are the main causes How has COVID-19 impacted What are the key lessons we to declare a pandemic? or drivers behind the school education? can learn from the COVID-19 emergence of pandemic pandemic and opportunities diseases? to be explored in preparation for future pandemics? Q3 26 Q8 52 Q13 86 Is it legally binding for all What are the factors What are some key policy References 120 countries to adhere to affecting the spread responses in education? pandemic guidelines? Can of pandemics? a country defy a pandemic declaration? Q4 30 Q9 56 Q14 92 What pandemics have we What measures were What have been the witnessed over the past 100 adopted by countries to economic impacts of years? combat COVID-19 and how COVID-19? successful have they been? Foreword COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in human This document is a collation of facts and figures history. It has brought to the forefront some which are informational in nature. It highlights some unimaginable challenges and has highlighted the need of the complexities we have to face as a nation when for resilient and adaptable health, economic, and social making decisions to combat the disease but the same systems. It is only through an unwavering commitment time oversee the welfare of the people across multiple to COVID appropriate behaviour and adoption of an domains and not just linked with the disease. I hope integrated approach towards vaccine development that that this document will serve as a useful tool not only we can mitigate and recover from damage caused by for policymakers who are at the forefront of devising pandemics like COVID-19. plans to combat the spread of disease, but also for other stakeholders like educators, economists, health care As the world continues to grapple with this pandemic, personnel who are tasked with implementing the plans, it is essential to understand the basic questions and most importantly people by and large who are encompassing the word “pandemic”- the what, where, ultimately responsible for executing the plans, thereby when and how of it. This is the motivation for the deciding success or failure in curtailing the spread of the document. disease. The primary aim of this document is to provide basic I would like to congratulate Prof Anantha Kumar information about key concepts associated with and Duraiappah, Director UNESCO MGIEP, his entire procedural understanding of the term “pandemic”. It team and the eminent contributors in taking the itiative gives a synopsis of past and present pandemics with and bringing out this document focus on lessons learnt primarily from COVID-19 and preparedness for future. It sheds light on the mitigation Lastly, I thank my team consisting of Shri B.N. policies adopted by countries across the globe to combat Satpathy and Shri Suneet Mohan for coordinating and the pandemic and gives an account of direct and indirect contributing towards building of this document impacts of pandemic on various sectors of the society. K. VIJAYRAGHAVAN Principle Scientific Advisor to the Govt. of India 9 It is against this background that well as reports from the relevant this document has been prepared.