Creating the Fastest Economic Recovery
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Deflation: a Business Perspective
Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation. -
This Is the Heritage Society After All – to 1893, and the Shape of This
1 IRVING HERITAGE SOCIETY PRESENTATION By Maura Gast, Irving CVB October 2010 For tonight’s program, and because this is the Irving Heritage Society, after all, I thought I’d take a departure from my usual routine (which probably everyone in this room has heard too many times) and talk a little bit about the role the CVB plays in an historical context instead. I’m hopeful that as champions of heritage and history in general, that you’ll indulge me on this path tonight, and that you’ll see it all come back home to Irving by the time I’m done. Because there were really three key factors that led to the convention industry as we know it today and to our profession. And they are factors that, coupled with some amazing similarities to what’s going on in our world today, are worth paying attention to. How We as CVBs Came to Be • The Industrial Revolution – And the creation of manufacturing organizations • The Railroad Revolution • The Panic of 1893 One was the industrial revolution and its associated growth of large manufacturing organizations caused by the many technological innovations of that age. The second was the growth of the railroad, and ultimately the Highway system here in the US. And the third was the Panic of 1893. The Concept of “Associations” 2 The idea of “associations” has historically been an American concept – this idea of like‐minded people wanting to gather together in what came to be known as conventions. And when you think about it, there have been meetings and conventions of some kind taking place since recorded time. -
Research & Policy Brief No.47
Research & Policy Briefs From the World Bank Malaysia Hub No. 47 May 24, 2021 Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia during the COVID-19 Recession Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Eka Vashakmadze The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated lives and damaged economies, requiring strong and decisive policy responses from governments. Developing Public Disclosure Authorized the optimal short-term and long-term policy response to the pandemic requires understanding the demand and supply factors that drive economic growth. The appropriate policy response will depend on the size and duration of demand and supply shocks. This Research & Policy Brief provides a decomposition of demand and supply dynamics at the macroeconomic level for the large developing economies of East Asia. The findings suggest that both demand and supply shocks were important drivers of output fluctuations during the first year of the pandemic. The demand shocks created an environment of deficient demand—reflected in large negative output gaps even after the unprecedented policy response—which is expected to last through 2021. The extant deficient demand is suggestive of continued need to support the economic recovery. Its size should guide policy makers in calibrating responses to ensure that recovery is entrenched, and that short-term supply disruptions do not lead to long-term declines in potential growth. The Pandemic-Induced Shock Low external demand will continue to affect economies reliant on tourism, while sluggish domestic demand will disproportionally affect The pandemic, national lockdowns, and reverberations from the rest economies with large services sectors. Understanding the demand of the world inflicted a massive shock to the East Asia and Pacific and supply factors that drive economic growth is critical for region in 2020 (World Bank 2020a). -
Flattening the Curve: 3/9/2020 We’Re All in This Together, Together We Can Stop the Spread and We All Have a Role to Play
3/23/2020 HOW TO DO IT Flattening the Curve: 3/9/2020 We’re all in this together, Together We Can Stop the Spread and we all have a role to play. • Practice social distancing. This means staying at of COVID-19 & Save Lives least six feet away from others. Without social distancing, people who are sick with COVID-19 will likely infect between 2-3 other people, and The COVID-19 pandemic is continuing to expand and affect our the spread of the virus will continue to grow. community. By making some important changes to the way we live • Stay home and away from public places, and interact with one another, we can stop the spread and save lives. especially if you are sick. • Wash your hands frequently with soap and water. • Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when FLATTENING THE CURVE coughing and sneezing, throw the tissue away and then wash your hands. If the COVID-19 pandemic If we can slow the spread, That’s why public health orders that promote social • Avoid touching your face including your eyes, continues to grow at the just as many people might nose and mouth. current pace, it will eventually get sick, but the distancing are being put in overwhelm our health care added time will allow our place. By flattening the curve • Disinfect frequently touched objects and system, and in-turn, increase health care system to — reducing the number of surfaces, like door knobs and your phone. the number of people who provide lifesaving care to the people who will get experience severe illness or people who need it. -
Rebuilding the Public Sector for Economic Recovery and Resilience
REBUILDING THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE Sara Hinkley, Ph.D. March 2021 Executive Summary As the country crests the most devastating wave yet of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing optimism that the new administration will act quickly to stem the economic crisis: both by deploying the federal government’s leadership to control the pandemic itself and by using the federal government’s fiscal capacity to mitigate the economic damage caused by the public health crisis. The Biden administration will need to turn around both of these failures quickly in order to prevent further catastrophe for millions of Americans and a sustained recession. But the disaster unfolding now is not just a result of policy failures over the past eleven months; it is the result of decades of disinvestment and austerity, accelerated during the Great Recession, which made us more vulnerable to this crisis. Local, state, and national austerity set the country up for a harsh, prolonged, and profoundly unequal recession. We face a pivotal moment now: we can repeat those mistakes, leaving us more vulnerable to future crises, or we can build back our public sector to make us more economically resilient. groundworkcollaborative.org REBUILDING THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE | 1 It is certainly bad luck that the long-predicted1 economic downturn was sparked by a pandemic, but our failure to meet this crisis with an effective public response is the outcome of years of deliberate policy choices. The austerity implemented after the Great Recession decimated both our ability to weather an economic downturn and our ability to handle any crisis requiring a strong public response. -
Pandemic.Pdf.Pdf
1 PANDEMICS: Past, Present, Future Published in 2021 by the Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Education for Peace and Challenges & Opportunities Sustainable Development, 35 Ferozshah Road, New Delhi 110001, India © UNESCO MGIEP This publication is available in Open Access under the Attribution-ShareAlike Coordinating Lead Authors: 3.0 IGO (CC-BY-SA 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ ANANTHA KUMAR DURAIAPPAH by-sa/3.0/ igo/). By using the content of this publication, the users accept to be Director, UNESCO MGIEP bound by the terms of use of the UNESCO Open Access Repository (http:// www.unesco.org/openaccess/terms-use-ccbysa-en). KRITI SINGH Research Officer, UNESCO MGIEP The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The ideas and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors; they Lead Authors: NANDINI CHATTERJEE SINGH are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. Senior Programme Officer, UNESCO MGIEP The publication can be cited as: Duraiappah, A. K., Singh, K., Mochizuki, Y. YOKO MOCHIZUKI (Eds.) (2021). Pandemics: Past, Present and Future Challenges and Opportunities. Head of Policy, UNESCO MGIEP New Delhi. UNESCO MGIEP. SHAHID JAMEEL Coordinating Lead Authors: Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University Anantha Kumar Duraiappah, Director, UNESCO MGIEP Kriti Singh, Research Officer, UNESCO MGIEP Lead Authors: Nandini Chatterjee Singh, Senior Programme Officer, UNESCO MGIEP Contributing Authors: CHARLES PERRINGS Yoko Mochizuki, Head of Policy, UNESCO MGIEP Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University Shahid Jameel, Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University W. -
Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries†
Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveriesy Martin Beraja Christian K. Wolf MIT & NBER MIT & NBER September 17, 2021 Abstract: We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with ex- penditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy. Keywords: durables, services, demand recessions, pent-up demand, shift-share design, recov- ery dynamics, COVID-19. JEL codes: E32, E52 yEmail: [email protected] and [email protected]. We received helpful comments from George-Marios Angeletos, Gadi Barlevy, Florin Bilbiie, Ricardo Caballero, Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, Fran¸coisGourio, Basile Grassi, Erik Hurst, Greg Kaplan, Andrea Lanteri, Jennifer La'O, Alisdair McKay, Simon Mongey, Ernesto Pasten, Matt Rognlie, Alp Simsek, Ludwig Straub, Silvana Tenreyro, Nicholas Tra- chter, Gianluca Violante, Iv´anWerning, Johannes Wieland (our discussant), Tom Winberry, Nathan Zorzi and seminar participants at various venues, and we thank Isabel Di Tella for outstanding research assistance. -
WHO COVID-19 Database Search Strategy (Updated 26 May 2021)
Search purpose: Systematic search of the COVID-19 literature performed Monday through Friday for the WHO Database. Search strategy as of 26 May 2021. Searches performed by Tomas Allen, Kavita Kothari, and Martha Knuth. Use following commands to pull daily new entries: Entry_date:( [20210101 TO 20210120]) Entry_date:( 20210105) Duplicates: Duplicates are found in EndNote and Distillr using the Wichor method. Further screening is done by expert reviewers but some duplicates may still be in the database. Daily Search Strategy: Database Daily Search Strategy Medline (coronavir* OR corona virus* OR corona pandemic* OR betacoronavir* OR covid19 OR covid OR (Ovid) nCoV OR novel CoV OR CoV 2 OR CoV2 OR sarscov2 OR sars2 OR 2019nCoV OR wuhan virus* OR 1946- NCOV19 OR solidarity trial OR operation warp speed OR COVAX OR "ACT-Accelerator" OR BNT162b2 OR comirnaty OR "mRNA-1273" OR CoviShield OR AZD1222 OR Sputnik V OR CoronaVac OR "BBIBP-CorV" OR "Ad26.CoV2.S" OR "JNJ-78436735" OR Ad26COVS1 OR VAC31518 OR EpiVacCorona OR Convidicea OR "Ad5-nCoV" OR Covaxin OR CoviVac OR ZF2001 OR "NVX-CoV2373" OR "ZyCoV-D" OR CIGB 66 OR CVnCoV OR "INO-4800" OR "VIR-7831" OR "UB-612" OR BNT162 OR Soberana 1 OR Soberana 2 OR "B.1.1.7" OR "VOC 202012/01" OR "VOC202012/01" OR "VUI 202012/01" OR "VUI202012/01" OR "501Y.V1" OR UK Variant OR Kent Variant OR "VOC 202102/02" OR "VOC202102/02" OR "B.1.351" OR "VOC 202012/02" OR "VOC202012/02" OR "20H/501.V2" OR "20H/501Y.V2" OR "501Y.V2" OR "501.V2" OR South African Variant OR "B.1.1.28.1" OR "B.1.1.28" OR "B.1.1.248" OR -
COVID-19 & the Swedish Conundrum: Part I Why Did Sweden Not Lock
COVID-19 & The Swedish Conundrum: Part I Why did Sweden not lock down? What were they trying to achieve? Prathap Tharyan The world is cautiously trying to emerge from lockdowns People enjoying the sun in Stockholm on April 21, 2020 Jonathan Nackstrand /AFP via Getty images (Business Insider May 4 2020) No Lockdown: Do the Swedes know something the rest of the world does not know? Or are they playing “Russian Roulette” with their “Herd Immunity” strategy? SWEDEN’S RELAXED CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE NO LOCKDOWN IN SWEDEN: A SOCIAL EXPERIMENT IN COMBATING COVID-19 Cafes, bars, restaurants, elementary schools and most businesses, including hair salons and gyms are open and people are allowed to exercise outdoors Parks and public spaces are open Pubs and bars remain open https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden- Photograph: Ali Lorestani/EPA (The Guardian March 23) coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html WHY IS SWEDEN IS ‘DOING NOTHING’? Advice from the Public Health Agency Sweden has recommended good hygiene as part of infection control “Face masks are meant for Sweden’s Public Health Agency healthcare staff and not needed in in does not recommend face masks the community. for the public The best way to protect oneself and others in daily life is to maintain social distancing and good hand hygiene” SWEDISH PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY RECOMMENDS SOCIAL DISTANCING No large gatherings (50 people max.) Does not apply to schools, public transport, gyms Work from home if possible Keep arms-length distance from others in all public spaces including -
Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses
Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses Craig K. Elwell Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy August 30, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R40512 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses Summary Despite the severity of the recent financial crisis and recession, the U.S. economy has so far avoided falling into a deflationary spiral. Since mid-2009, the economy has been on a path of economic recovery. However, the pace of economic growth during the recovery has been relatively slow, and major economic weaknesses persist. In this economic environment, the risk of deflation remains significant and could delay sustained economic recovery. Deflation is a persistent decline in the overall level of prices. It is not unusual for prices to fall in a particular sector because of rising productivity, falling costs, or weak demand relative to the wider economy. In contrast, deflation occurs when price declines are so widespread and sustained that they cause a broad-based price index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to decline for several quarters. Such a continuous decline in the price level is more troublesome, because in a weak or contracting economy it can lead to a damaging self-reinforcing downward spiral of prices and economic activity. However, there are also examples of relatively benign deflations when economic activity expanded despite a falling price level. For instance, from 1880 through 1896, the U.S. price level fell about 30%, but this coincided with a period of strong economic growth. -
Economic Crisis, Whether They Have a Pattern?
The 2nd ICVHE The 2nd International Conference on Vocational Higher Education (ICVHE) 2017 “The Importance on Advancing Vocational Education to Meet Contemporary Labor Demands” Volume 2018 Conference Paper Economic Crisis, Whether They Have a Pattern?—A Historical Review Rahmat Yuliawan Study Program of Secretary and Office Management, Faculty of Vocational Studies Airlangga University Abstract Purpose: The global economic recession appeared several times and became a dark history and tragedy for the world economy; the global economic crisis emerged at least 15 times, from the Panic of 1797, which lasted for recent years, to the depression in 1807, Panics of 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, or the most phenomenal economic crisis known as the prolonged depression. This depression sustained for a 23-year period since 1873 to 1896. The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange caused the economic depression that spread throughout the world. It is very important to note that this phenomenon is inversely proportional to the incident in the United States, where at this period, the global industrial production is increasing rapidly. In the United States, for Corresponding Author: example, the production growth is over four times. Not to mention the panic in 1893, Rahmat Yuliawan Recession World War I, the Great Depression of 1929, recession in 1953, the Oil Crisis of Received: 8 June 2018 1973, Recession Beginning in 1980, reviewer in the early 1990s, recession, beginning Accepted: 17 July 2018 in 2000, and most recently, namely the Great Depression in 2008 due to several Published: 8 August 2018 factors, including rising oil prices caused rise in the price of food around the world, Publishing services provided by the credit crisis and the bankruptcy of various investor banks, rising unemployment, Knowledge E causing global inflation. -
Recovery from the Great Depression in the United States, Britain and Germany
Recovery from the Great Depression in the United States, Britain and Germany Donghyu Yang* June 1995 WP 9503 This paper was written while I was visiting the John F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Free University of Berlin. I thank the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for their support which made my visit possible, and Carl-L. Holtfrerich, Raymond Stokes and Peter Temin for their valuable comments. All remaining errors are mine. Recovery from the Great Depression in the United States, Britain and Germany Abstract This paper examines the process of the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States, Britain and Germany in a comparative perspective. The U.S. and German governments spent more actively, while all three countries manifested monetary ease. This expansionary switch was made possible by currency devaluation (Britain and U.S.) or by exchange control (Germany), though the banking sector remained passive in industrial finance in Germany. Investment allocation, in particular, was more favorable to recovery in the U.S., and perhaps to a larger extent in Germany, where the Motorisierung and rearmament had greater repercussion effect to boost up total industrial production, partly because Britain suffered a long run depression of a more "structural' character. Donghyu Yang Department of Economics John F. Kennedy Intitute Seoul National University Free University of Berlin tel 02-880-6375 tel 030-822-3434 fax 02-888-4454 fax 030-822-8877 I. Issues Since the relative stagnation of the world economy from the mid 1970s, economists have revived their interests in the Great Depression of the 1930s, if only because of its probable relevance to the contemporary problems.