DOCSLIB.ORG

From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment economies Article From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India Vijay Victor 1,* , Joshy Joseph Karakunnel 1 , Swetha Loganathan 1 and Daniel Francois Meyer 2 1 Department of Economics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru 560029, Karnataka, India; [email protected] (J.J.K.); [email protected] (S.L.) 2 College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: The recession in India and the UK peaked in 2017 due to the implications of new policy initiatives. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 intensified the crisis, causing a drastic decline in aggregate demand and output. India and the UK have resorted to monetary and fiscal stimulus packages to face the economic crisis. This study investigated the inflation–unemployment dynamics during the recession and COVID-19 times in India and the UK. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), the results of this study revealed that the recession had given way to stagflation in India. In contrast, in the UK, it has led to a more severe recession in the short-run. During the downturn, policy initiatives aggravate the recession and eventually turn to stagflation in India due to inflation caused by the weak supply side. However, in the UK, the policy initiatives during this downturn pushed the economy into a deeper recession due to reduced demand. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a similar recessionary impact on both Citation: Victor, Vijay, Joshy Joseph economies. A time horizon based recovery plan is suggested to help the economies recover from Karakunnel, Swetha Loganathan, and stagflation and even deeper recession. This framework could enable policymakers to choose the right Daniel Francois Meyer. 2021. From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: path of recovery within the shortest possible time. Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and Keywords: COVID-19; inflation; unemployment monetary policy; fiscal policy India. Economies 9: 73. https: //doi.org/10.3390/economies9020073 Academic Editor: Franz Seitz 1. Introduction The Indian and UK economies have been under pressure due to domestic and global Received: 5 March 2021 factors for over a decade since the 2007–2008 global recession. In India, the fall in the GDP Accepted: 9 April 2021 growth is attributed to factors such as increasing non-performing assets (NPAs) in the Published: 7 May 2021 banking sector (Lokare 2014) and the 2007–2008 recessionary effects from the major trading partners. When the government implemented the so-called ‘twin blows’ of Demonetization Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral (2016) and Goods and Services Tax (GST 2017), an already strained economy was pushed with regard to jurisdictional claims in into a more severe recessionary phase in 2016/2017 (Verma et al. 2020). Similarly, the published maps and institutional affil- UK recorded robust growth by 2010 and moved into a prosperity stage in the following iations. years (Lenoël et al. 2020). However, this boom is characterized by high GDP growth, consumption and investment soon spun into a steep decline in domestic savings and gross investment following the Brexit Referendum in 2015–2016 (Figure1). These observations imply that India and the UK moved into a recession by 2016–2017 Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. due to Demonetization and the Brexit Referendum, respectively, when the economies had Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. already been shrinking and under pressure. The implementation of Goods and Services This article is an open access article Tax (GST) in 2017 deepened the recession in India. The Brexit Referendum results led to distributed under the terms and the depreciation of the local currency, which raised the cost of living and reduced real conditions of the Creative Commons wages. It automatically reduced the proportion of income saved and spent on consumption Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ (Giammetti 2020), along with a rise in unemployment. Figure1 shows the contractionary 4.0/). phase in both economies after the new policy initiatives introduced in 2016. Economies 2021, 9, 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9020073 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/economies Economies 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 22 Economies 2021, 9, 73 wages. It automatically reduced the proportion of income saved and spent on consump-2 of 19 tion (Giammetti 2020), along with a rise in unemployment. Figure 1 shows the contrac- tionary phase in both economies after the new policy initiatives introduced in 2016. Figure 1. Percentage change in GDP growth rate for India and the UK from 2000 toto 2019.2019. Source:: World Bank,Bank, 2020.2020. It is is vivid vivid that that the the way way these these economies economies are are respo respondingnding to the to thecontraction contraction is not is uni- not form,uniform, as India as India has hasrecorded recorded a more a more severe severe adverse adverse impact impact sincesince 2016. 2016.Against Against this back- this ground,background, the present the present COVID COVID-19-19 pandemic, pandemic, unparalleled unparalleled to many to many earlier earlier economic economic epi- sodes,episodes, is characterized is characterized by bydemand demand and and supply supply shocks shocks (Br (Briancainca et etal. al. 2020). 2020 ).It Ithas has created created a deepa deep-rooted-rooted socio socio-economic-economic crisis crisis worldwide worldwide,, with with an an adverse adverse impact impact on on the the labor, labor, goods, and financial financial markets ( Baqaee and Farhi 20202020).). On the supply side, it has led to a cut inin production with job losseslosses and aa furtherfurther increaseincrease inin unemploymentunemployment levels.levels. It isis possiblepossible thatthat,, when the economy falls into a deeper recession on the wings of bothboth demanddemand andand supply shocks, it might eventually lead to a stagflationstagflation phase,phase, characterized by a higherhigher price level and unemploymentunemployment rates ((PapanikolaouPapanikolaou andand SchmidtSchmidt 20202020).). The traditional outlook on inflation inflation–unemployment–unemployment dynamics dynamics is is based based on on a trade trade-- off, although modern modern approaches approaches reduce reduce their their relevance relevance in inthe the short short run. run. Despite Despite the thede- batedebate surrounding surrounding its itsexistence, existence, thethe Phil Phillipslips curve curve has has been been established established in contemporary in contempo- empiricalrary empirical works works on developing on developing and and developed developed economies economies (Abu (Abu 2019; 2019 ;Tenzin Tenzin 2019;2019; Donayre and Panovska 20182018;; Ho and Iyke 2019).). Interestingly, thethe naturenature andand strengthstrength ofof the negative negative relationship relationship are are dependent dependent on on various various factors factors,, such such as asinflation inflation relative relative to its to longits long-term-term trend trend (Donayre (Donayre and and Panovska Panovska 2018), 2018 source), source of external of external shock shock and and policy policy re- sponseresponse (Ho (Ho and and Iyke Iyke 2019). 2019 ).These These works works stand stand to to substantiate substantiate the the complexity complexity of of inflation inflation–– unemployment dynamics and bring focus to the understanding of policy factors in thethe relationship. ThThee presentpresent economiceconomic situation situation warrants warrants examination examination of theof the inflation–unemployment inflation–unemploy- mentdynamics dynamics of India of India and theand UK,the UK, countries countries with with wide wide variations variations in thein the economic economic charac- char- teristics, as the world gears towards policy intervention for economic revival from the acteristics, as the world gears towards policy intervention for economic revival from the pandemic. We investigate the possibility of recession giving way to stagflation and to bring pandemic. We investigate the possibility of recession giving way to stagflation and to out the reasons behind it. In examining the magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 bring out the reasons behind it. In examining the magnitude of the impact of the COVID- crisis in India and the UK, this study also highlights the drawbacks of the current eco- 19 crisis in India and the UK, this study also highlights the drawbacks of the current eco- nomic model and recommends an alternative economic model to address recessionary nomic model and recommends an alternative economic model to address recessionary trends. Research in this area is expected to contribute towards developing an intimate trends. Research in this area is expected to contribute towards developing an intimate and and nuanced understanding of the inflation–unemployment dynamics with a focus on tailor-made policy interventions for recovery. In the context of policy-induced economic events and unprecedented external shocks like the pandemic, this study seeks to provide a framework for remedial measures that can be adopted for economic recovery. Economies 2021, 9, 73 3 of 19 2. Literature Review 2.1. Theoretical Foundation A. W. Phillips(1958), a British economist, empirically tested the statistical relationship between inflation and unemployment. He observed the negative relationship between money
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Deflation: a Business Perspective
    Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation.
    [Show full text]
  • Analysis on Indian Power Supply Situation and Policies
    IEEJ：July 2018 © IEEJ2018 Analysis on Indian Power Supply Situation and Policies National Expansion of Successful Electric Power Reform “Gujarat State Model” Jun Makita* Summary India features robust demand for the development of infrastructure including electric power and is expected to drive the world economy as a manufacturing base and a giant market. However, about 240 million people, close to one-fifth of the Indian population, live without electric power. Blackouts are frequent, indicating an unstable electric power supply environment. Narendra Modi, who was elected India’s 18th prime minister in May 2014, has vowed to supply electric power 24 hours a day, seven days a week, indicating his determination to promote domestic electric power development. Cited as the largest factor behind his election as prime minister are an electric power reform and other successful policies in Gujarat state when he served as the state’s chief minister from 2001 to 2014. Particularly, the electric power reform is called the Gujarat state model, gaining high ratings. In response to people’s strong wish to see the expansion of the reform’s fruits throughout India, Prime Minister Modi is now tackling the national expansion of the reform. Stable power supply is such an important policy challenge supporting national development. In this paper, Chapter 1 reviews India’s present situation and future outlook regarding economy, energy, electric power supply and demand, and an existing supply-demand gap. Chapter 2 summarizes India’s present electric power business arrangements, power supply conditions and numerous challenges facing India. Chapter 3 analyzes the Gujarat state model cited in the subtitle, delving into the electric power reform that Modi as chief minister of Gujarat state promoted to eliminate blackouts and into the reform’s fruits such as electric power quality improvements.
    [Show full text]
  • This Is the Heritage Society After All – to 1893, and the Shape of This
    1 IRVING HERITAGE SOCIETY PRESENTATION By Maura Gast, Irving CVB October 2010 For tonight’s program, and because this is the Irving Heritage Society, after all, I thought I’d take a departure from my usual routine (which probably everyone in this room has heard too many times) and talk a little bit about the role the CVB plays in an historical context instead. I’m hopeful that as champions of heritage and history in general, that you’ll indulge me on this path tonight, and that you’ll see it all come back home to Irving by the time I’m done. Because there were really three key factors that led to the convention industry as we know it today and to our profession. And they are factors that, coupled with some amazing similarities to what’s going on in our world today, are worth paying attention to. How We as CVBs Came to Be • The Industrial Revolution – And the creation of manufacturing organizations • The Railroad Revolution • The Panic of 1893 One was the industrial revolution and its associated growth of large manufacturing organizations caused by the many technological innovations of that age. The second was the growth of the railroad, and ultimately the Highway system here in the US. And the third was the Panic of 1893. The Concept of “Associations” 2 The idea of “associations” has historically been an American concept – this idea of like‐minded people wanting to gather together in what came to be known as conventions. And when you think about it, there have been meetings and conventions of some kind taking place since recorded time.
    [Show full text]
  • Republic of Korea Bilateral Relations
    India – Republic of Korea Bilateral Relations India-Republic of Korea (RoK) relations has made great strides in recent years and has become truly multidimensional, spurred by a significant convergence of interests, mutual goodwill and high level exchanges. Bilateral consular relations were established in 1962 which was upgraded to Ambassador-level in 1973. In course of time, RoK's open market policies found resonance with India's economic liberalization and 'Look East Policy' as well as “Act East Policy”. Consistent Indian support for peaceful reunification of the two Koreas has been well received in this country. According to "SamgukYusa" or "The Heritage History of the Three Kingdoms" written in the 13th century, a Princess from Ayodhya (Suriratna) came to Korea, married King Kim-Suro, and became Queen Hur Hwang-ok in the year 48 AD [wife of former President Lee Myung-bak (Mrs. Kim Yoon-ok), former President Kim Dae-jung, former President Kim Young-sam and former PM Kim Jong-pil, inter alia, trace their ancestry to the royal couple]. Korean Buddhist Monk Hyecho (704–787 CE) or Hong Jiao visited India from 723 to 729 AD and wrote travelogue "Pilgrimage to the five kingdoms of India" which gives a vivid account of Indian culture, politics & society. The travelogue was rediscovered in China in 1908 and was subsequently translated into different languages, including Hindi, under the aegis of UNESCO. The original fragment is now owned by the National Library of France. Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore also composed a short but evocative poem – 'Lamp of the East' - in 1929 about Korea's glorious past and its promising bright future.
    [Show full text]
  • Research & Policy Brief No.47
    Research & Policy Briefs From the World Bank Malaysia Hub No. 47 May 24, 2021 Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia during the COVID-19 Recession Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Eka Vashakmadze The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated lives and damaged economies, requiring strong and decisive policy responses from governments. Developing Public Disclosure Authorized the optimal short-term and long-term policy response to the pandemic requires understanding the demand and supply factors that drive economic growth. The appropriate policy response will depend on the size and duration of demand and supply shocks. This Research & Policy Brief provides a decomposition of demand and supply dynamics at the macroeconomic level for the large developing economies of East Asia. The findings suggest that both demand and supply shocks were important drivers of output fluctuations during the first year of the pandemic. The demand shocks created an environment of deficient demand—reflected in large negative output gaps even after the unprecedented policy response—which is expected to last through 2021. The extant deficient demand is suggestive of continued need to support the economic recovery. Its size should guide policy makers in calibrating responses to ensure that recovery is entrenched, and that short-term supply disruptions do not lead to long-term declines in potential growth. The Pandemic-Induced Shock Low external demand will continue to affect economies reliant on tourism, while sluggish domestic demand will disproportionally affect The pandemic, national lockdowns, and reverberations from the rest economies with large services sectors. Understanding the demand of the world inflicted a massive shock to the East Asia and Pacific and supply factors that drive economic growth is critical for region in 2020 (World Bank 2020a).
    [Show full text]
  • Structural Violence Against Children in South Asia © Unicef Rosa 2018
    STRUCTURAL VIOLENCE AGAINST CHILDREN IN SOUTH ASIA © UNICEF ROSA 2018 Cover Photo: Bangladesh, Jamalpur: Children and other community members watching an anti-child marriage drama performed by members of an Adolescent Club. © UNICEF/South Asia 2016/Bronstein The material in this report has been commissioned by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) regional office in South Asia. UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this work do not imply an opinion on the legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers. Permission to copy, disseminate or otherwise use information from this publication is granted so long as appropriate acknowledgement is given. The suggested citation is: United Nations Children’s Fund, Structural Violence against Children in South Asia, UNICEF, Kathmandu, 2018. STRUCTURAL VIOLENCE AGAINST CHILDREN IN SOUTH ASIA ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS UNICEF would like to acknowledge Parveen from the University of Sheffield, Drs. Taveeshi Gupta with Fiona Samuels Ramya Subrahmanian of Know Violence in for their work in developing this report. The Childhood, and Enakshi Ganguly Thukral report was prepared under the guidance of of HAQ (Centre for Child Rights India). Kendra Gregson with Sheeba Harma of the From UNICEF, staff members representing United Nations Children's Fund Regional the fields of child protection, gender Office in South Asia. and research, provided important inputs informed by specific South Asia country This report benefited from the contribution contexts, programming and current violence of a distinguished reference group: research. In particular, from UNICEF we Susan Bissell of the Global Partnership would like to thank: Ann Rosemary Arnott, to End Violence against Children, Ingrid Roshni Basu, Ramiz Behbudov, Sarah Fitzgerald of United Nations Population Coleman, Shreyasi Jha, Aniruddha Kulkarni, Fund Asia and the Pacific region, Shireen Mary Catherine Maternowska and Eri Jejeebhoy of the Population Council, Ali Mathers Suzuki.
    [Show full text]
  • Rebuilding the Public Sector for Economic Recovery and Resilience
    REBUILDING THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE Sara Hinkley, Ph.D. March 2021 Executive Summary As the country crests the most devastating wave yet of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing optimism that the new administration will act quickly to stem the economic crisis: both by deploying the federal government’s leadership to control the pandemic itself and by using the federal government’s fiscal capacity to mitigate the economic damage caused by the public health crisis. The Biden administration will need to turn around both of these failures quickly in order to prevent further catastrophe for millions of Americans and a sustained recession. But the disaster unfolding now is not just a result of policy failures over the past eleven months; it is the result of decades of disinvestment and austerity, accelerated during the Great Recession, which made us more vulnerable to this crisis. Local, state, and national austerity set the country up for a harsh, prolonged, and profoundly unequal recession. We face a pivotal moment now: we can repeat those mistakes, leaving us more vulnerable to future crises, or we can build back our public sector to make us more economically resilient. groundworkcollaborative.org REBUILDING THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE | 1 It is certainly bad luck that the long-predicted1 economic downturn was sparked by a pandemic, but our failure to meet this crisis with an effective public response is the outcome of years of deliberate policy choices. The austerity implemented after the Great Recession decimated both our ability to weather an economic downturn and our ability to handle any crisis requiring a strong public response.
    [Show full text]
  • Violence Against Women: a State Level Analysis in India
    Violence Against Women: A State Level Analysis in India MINISTRY OF WOMEN & CHILD DEVELOPMENT Submitted By: Tanisha Khandelwal. M.Sc.(Applied Statistics). Symbiosis Statistical Institute, (Symbiosis International University, Pune) Submitted To: Mr. Rohit Parashar Consultant, MWCD. TABLE OF CONTENTS S.no. Content Page No. 1 Introduction 3 2 A Review of Literature 4-5 3 Data and Methodology 5-6 4 Discussion 6-19 (i) Index for Domestic Violence against Women in India 6-9 (ii)Index for Violence against Women in India 10-14 (iii)Index for Violence against SC/ST Women 15-19 5 Conclusion 19-21 6 Refrences 21-22 2 Violence Against Women: A State Level Analysis in India 1. Introduction The principle of gender equality has been enshrined in Constitution of India. Although women can be victim of any of general crimes such as murder, robbery, etc. but there are some gender specific crimes which are being characterized as crime against women, more specifically labeled as violence against women. The fear of violence can prevent women from pursuing education, working or exercising their political rights and voice. Violence against women causes suffering and misery to victims and their families and places a heavy burden on societies worldwide. It is a social construction based on a societal consensus about the roles and rights of men and women(Krahe Barbara,2017). Violence against women is a serious cause of concern as it also deprives women of their freedom and other safety rights which is a very bad indicator for any country’s development. From every region, women have grasped the power of social media to expose their pain and harm, including through use of the hashtags #MeToo, #NiUnaMenos, #BalanceTonPorc, #PrimeiroAssedio, #Babaeko and #WithYou(UN Women, 2018).
    [Show full text]
  • Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models∗†
    Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models∗† Martin S. Eichenbaum‡ Sergio Rebelo§ Mathias Trabandt¶ June 19, 2020 Abstract We analyze the e§ects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does not rationalize the positive comovement of consumption and investment observed in recessions associated with an epidemic. Intro- ducing monopolistic competition into the neoclassical model remedies this shortcoming even when prices are completely flexible. Finally, sticky prices lead to a larger recession but do not fundamentally alter the predictions of the monopolistic competition model. JEL Classification: E1, I1, H0 Keywords: Epidemic, comovement, investment, recession. ∗We thank R. Anton Braun, Joao Guerreiro, Martín Harding, Laura Murphy, and Hannah Seidl for helpful comments. †Matlab/Dynare replication codes will be made available by the end of June 2020 at the following URL: https://sites.google.com/site/mathiastrabandt/home/research ‡Northwestern University and NBER. Address: Northwestern University, Department of Economics, 2211 Campus Dr, Evanston, IL 60208. USA. E-mail: [email protected]. §Northwestern University, NBER, and CEPR. Address: Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Man- agement, 2211 Campus Dr, Evanston, IL 60208. USA. E-mail: [email protected]. ¶Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business and Economics, Chair of Macroeconomics. Address: Boltz- mannstrasse 20, 14195 Berlin, Germany, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), E-mail: [email protected]. 1Introduction Acentralfeatureofrecessionsisthepositivecomovementbetweenoutput,hoursworked, consumption, and investment. In this respect, the COVID-19 recession is not unique. At least since Barro and King (1984), it has been recognized that, absent aggregate productivity shocks, it is di¢cult for many models to generate comovement in macroeconomic aggregates.
    [Show full text]
  • Disaster Management of India
    DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN INDIA DISASTER MANAGEMENT 2011 This book has been prepared under the GoI-UNDP Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (2009-2012) DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN INDIA Ministry of Home Affairs Government of India c Disaster Management in India e ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The perception about disaster and its management has undergone a change following the enactment of the Disaster Management Act, 2005. The definition of disaster is now all encompassing, which includes not only the events emanating from natural and man-made causes, but even those events which are caused by accident or negligence. There was a long felt need to capture information about all such events occurring across the sectors and efforts made to mitigate them in the country and to collate them at one place in a global perspective. This book has been an effort towards realising this thought. This book in the present format is the outcome of the in-house compilation and analysis of information relating to disasters and their management gathered from different sources (domestic as well as the UN and other such agencies). All the three Directors in the Disaster Management Division, namely Shri J.P. Misra, Shri Dev Kumar and Shri Sanjay Agarwal have contributed inputs to this Book relating to their sectors. Support extended by Prof. Santosh Kumar, Shri R.K. Mall, former faculty and Shri Arun Sahdeo from NIDM have been very valuable in preparing an overview of the book. This book would have been impossible without the active support, suggestions and inputs of Dr. J. Radhakrishnan, Assistant Country Director (DM Unit), UNDP, New Delhi and the members of the UNDP Disaster Management Team including Shri Arvind Sinha, Consultant, UNDP.
    [Show full text]
  • The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond
    Working Paper No. 822 The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond by Riccardo Bellofiore* University of Bergamo December 2014 * [email protected] This paper was prepared for the project “Financing Innovation: An Application of a Keynes-Schumpeter- Minsky Synthesis,” funded in part by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET grant no. IN012-00036, administered through the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Co-principal investigators: Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex) and L. Randall Wray (Levy Institute). The author thanks INET and the Levy Institute for support of this research. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2014 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X Abstract An understanding of, and an intervention into, the present capitalist reality requires that we put together the insights of Karl Marx on labor, as well as those of Hyman Minsky on finance. The best way to do this is within a longer-term perspective, looking at the different stages through which capitalism evolves.
    [Show full text]
  • Structural Change and Productivity Growth in India and the People's
    ADBI Working Paper Series STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN INDIA AND THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Jagannath Mallick No. 656 February 2017 Asian Development Bank Institute Jagannath Mallick is an international research fellow at the University of Hyogo, Japan. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms. Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published. The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication. Suggested citation: Mallick, J. 2017. Structural Change and Productivity Growth in India and the People’s Republic of China. ADBI Working Paper 656. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available: https://www.adb.org/publications/structural-change-and-productivity-growth-india- and-prc Please contact the author for information about this paper. Email: [email protected] The author is thankful to the discussant and participants of the workshop at the Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan, on 25–26 November 2015.
    [Show full text]