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Private Equityspotlight Private EquitySpotlight www.preqin.com January 2009 / Volume 5 - Issue 1 Welcome to the latest edition of Private Equity Spotlight, the monthly newsletter from Preqin, providing insights into private equity performance, investors and fundraising. Private Equity Spotlight combines information from our online products Performance Analyst, Investor Intelligence, Fund Manager Profi les & Funds in Market. This month’s issue contains details from our latest publication, The 2009 Preqin Limited Partner Universe. Preqin’s Predictions for 2009 Feature Article page 3 Investor Spotlight page 11 Private Equity in 2009: Preqin’s Ten Predictions Fundraising Prospects for The global private equity industry is certainly facing some 2009: challenging times. However, Preqin believes that while With fundraising slowing, uncertainty is the only certainty at the present time, the and investor movements coming year will not be as bad as some are predicting. restricted for a variety See this month’s feature article for our ten predictions for of reasons, attracting 2009. new LPs has become a challenging prospect. We examine the state of the Performance Spotlight page 6 fundraising market and look at the prospects for attracting investment in 2009. In this month’s Performance Spotlight we examine how private equity has performed relative to other asset classes Investor News in real world portfolios, and evaluate the future for private page 19 equity investing. All the latest news on investors in private equity: Fundraising Spotlight page 8 • SPF Beheer plans on committing EUR 250 million to private equity funds for 2009. This month’s Fundraising Spotlight takes an in-depth look at fundraising over 2008, funds currently in the market and • MetLife Insurance Company is forming a unit focused fundraising by region. solely on venture capital investments. No. of Funds US Europe ROW Total • United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund (UNJSPF) has on Road approved a maiden allocation to private equity. Venture 217 100 166 483 Buyout 142 61 65 268 • Philadelphia Board of Pensions & Retirement is looking into boosting its 12% target allocation to private equity. Fund of Funds 96 58 33 187 Real Estate 202 114 107 423 • Twin Bridge Capital Partners is planning to commit to 5-10 private equity funds in 2009. Other 106 74 83 263 Total 763 407 454 1,624 If you would like to receive Private Equity Spotlight each month please email [email protected]. OUT NOW Subscribers to Performance Analyst and Investor Intelligence receive additional information not available The 2009 Preqin Limited Partner Universe The 2009 Preqin Limited in the free version. If you would like further details please Partner Universe email [email protected] More information available at: Publisher: Preqin Ltd. www.preqin.com/lpu Scotia House, 33 Finsbury Square, London. EC2A 1BB Tel: +44 (0)20() 7065 5100 w: www.preqin.com p q PERFORMANCE • INVESTORS • FUNDRAISING © 2009 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 2 ◄ Feature Article Feature Article: Private Equity in 2009: Preqin’s Ten Predictions Perhaps the only certainty in the 2005 and 2006 vintages will generally course some fi rms won’t weather the current market and economy is that be the ones that are most exposed to downturn, but predictions of 20 – 40% we are in uncharted territory, and investments made near the peak of the failure rates are hopelessly wide of the detailed forecasts are impossible market, and so will suffer the most; mark: of the fi fty private equity fi rms to make with any degree of that raised the most money during the confi dence. At the same time, 2. But PE will still out-perform period 1991 to 2000 (i.e. before the investors and fund managers have other asset classes: whilst there last downturn), no fewer than forty-six a greater need than ever for insights will be some spectacular – and well- are still active today. Private equity into likely market developments to publicised – disasters in PE portfolios, fi rms are very resilient; help formulate their strategies. the overall picture won’t be so drastic. At the micro level, many portfolio 5. Deals will return: debt may be The fundamental diffi culty is companies are still performing strongly. severely constrained currently, but the macroeconomic backdrop At the macro level, private equity still private equity fi rms will start to do – specifi cally, are we in a tough out-performs most other asset classes more deals again, once the economic recession or the early stages of a long- (please see the following article, outlook becomes a bit clearer. PE fi rms lasting depression? If the latter is the drawing on data from Performance have huge amounts of dry powder case, then ‘all bets are off’, so let us Analyst and Preqin’s annual survey of available, and many deals will initially assume we are in the likelier scenario, pension fund returns), and the principal be done with little debt – but can still a nasty and tough recession. area of concern (mega buyouts) deliver great returns if the entry price raised only 17% of the entire industry’s is right. And debt will come back – not Even under this assumption, some capital during the period 2003 – 2008. to 2006-7 levels, but in volume and at commentators from inside and outside Factor in the funds that have already appropriate prices; the industry have come up with distributed profi ts and those that alarmist predictions for the industry, haven’t yet drawn their commitments, 6. LPs’ allocations to PE will hold ranging from widespread systemic and the scale of the problem becomes up and even grow: Preqin is in fi nancial losses to a major shakeout more manageable. LPs with well- regular contact with the 4,600 LPs on that could see 20 to 40 per cent of diversifi ed portfolios saw depressed our Investor Intelligence database, all private equity fi rms disappear. but positive returns throughout the and they are telling us one thing quite However, even though fi nancial previous crash at the Millennium, and consistently: generally speaking, they markets are in turmoil, and private will do so again this time; plan to maintain or increase allocations equity is clearly feeling the effects, over the medium term. Of course some these predictions appear unlikely 3. 2009 and 2010 will be great times LPs over-allocated at precisely the to us, and could lead investors and to invest: PE investments made wrong time of the cycle and will need fund managers to draw the wrong during recessions have historically to pull back, but generally speaking conclusions and make unwise choices delivered the best returns, and 2009 LPs recognise a) private equity’s ability for the future. and 2010 will follow this pattern. With to out-perform over the cycle, and b) approximately $1 trillion of dry powder the great opportunities over the next Here are Preqin’s predictions for the available, private equity is poised to couple of years; industry: deliver excellent returns to LPs, and to play a major role in the coming 7. Fundraising will recover in 2009 1. PE returns will decline, especially economic recovery; H2: there is little doubt that the fi rst the 2005 and 2006 vintages: guess half of 2009 will be a dreadful time for what, private equity isn’t uncorrelated 4. Some PE fi rms may fail, but fundraising. LPs are waiting for FASB to other assets classes after all. The fewer than some people think: of 157 valuations to come through, and © 2009 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 3 ◄ Feature Article ... 2009 and 2010 will be great times to invest: PE “ investments made during recessions have historically “ delivered the best returns... will be making few new commitments In summary, we’re unashamedly bullish – Preqin is forecasting 2009 H1 fi nal about the prospects for the industry, closes of around $200bn, down from even in these diffi cult times. $346 bn for the same period in 2008. However, things will start to fl ow One other prediction: private equity again in the second half as managers will get much better press in the come back to market and LPs decide next couple of years – no longer the to partake in the great opportunities ‘overpaid fat cats’, private equity will ahead; be seen as a key player in getting the economy moving again. 8. 2009 – the Year of the Secondary: many LPs need to rebalance their Happy investing! portfolios, and some need to make Mark O’Hare outright reductions. 2009 will see a big increase in secondary transactions, and we anticipate this will prove to become a permanent feature of the market, as LPs make use of greater liquidity opportunities. Preqin’s new Secondaries Market database will help sellers and buyers make the most of Business Information their opportunities; In A Global Context 9. Niche strategies will prosper: 13th Annual there will be huge opportunities in several niche areas of private equity – mezzanine, distressed and emerging CEE Private markets will all do well. This will be a boon for fund-of-funds managers, as Equity Forum they are best-placed to help LPs gain access to these specialist areas; Exploiting New Opportunities in Uncertain Times 10. Fees and terms will be re- March 23 – 24, 2009 | Hotel De France, Vienna, Austria aligned: private equity’s greatest With Valuable Contributions From: asset is the alignment of interest 3TS Capital Partners Bank Gutmann GESSEL Mid Europa Partners between LP, GP, and portfolio company Acanthus Advisors BRE Bank Gimv Nomura Mezzanine management. In the boom years Advent International Bridgepoint Hansa Investment Funds Pantheon Ventures Adveq Management Deloitte Intel Capital Partners Group” some of this was lost, but it will now AIG Capital Partners EBRD Intermediate Capital Paul Capital Partners be a focus for LP and GP alike.
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