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1.E SPRING POPULATION SURVEY of EMPEROR GEESE (Chen

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1.E SPRING POPULATION SURVEY of EMPEROR GEESE (Chen SPRING POPULATION SURVEY OF EMPEROR GEESE (Chen canagica) IN SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA 28 APRIL - 4 MAY, 1990 RM DRM ARM/P ORP WB ' BY ST MW MN Rodney J. King* SEC CT and ye.‘.1.e CAN 1401. Christian P. Dau** Key Words: Emperor goose, population, distribution, southwestern coastal Alaska, aerial survey, migratory birds. November, 1990 U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service *Migratory Bird Management **Izembek National Wildlife Refuge 1412 Airport Way P.O. Box 127 Fairbanks, Alaska 99701 Cold Bay, Alaska 99571 INTRODUCTION The tenth consecutive aerial spring population survey for emperor geese began on 28 April and was concluded on 4 May, 1990. A total of 67,581 emperor geese was counted along the southwest coast of Alaska (Table 1). This total is 47.6 percent higher than the 1989 survey. The three year average of 55,722 is an increase of 10.5 percent over the 1989 three year average (Table 2). Survey conditions were considered optimal because habitat on and near the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YK Delta NWR) was snow covered, ice pack was close to shore (limiting available habitat north and west of the survey area), and other major estuaries southwest of King Salmon (except for Port Heiden) were at or near high tide which concentrates emperors along shorelines making them more accessible and easier to count. Emperor goose numbers, survey conditions and survey time are summarized by segment in Table 1. METHODS The 1990 spring survey was conducted by Rod King (pilot/observer, MBM-Fairbanks) and Chris Dau (observer, Izembek NWR). This was the ninth consecutive year that the same observers have made up the survey team. A Cessna 185 (N1055F) on amphibious floats was used as the survey aircraft and was flown 200-300 feet above ground level at 110 mph. All coastal habitat including bays and estuaries frequented by emperor geese was surveyed from Hooper Bay to Portage Bay except as noted in Table 1 (Figure 1). Each bay is approached in a manner that allows the survey team to observe all emperor geese. A majority of the flocks are placed on the pilot/observer side for counting except in large bays where a systematic search perpendicular to the shoreline places some geese on both sides of the aircraft. During the survey (flying a southwest direction on the north side of the Alaska Peninsula and a northeast direction on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula) the bay is surveyed clockwise around the shoreline. Surveying habitat in this manner allows the pilot to haze birds towards the shoreline and eventually behind the aircraft. This lessens the chance for double counting. Estimating waterfowl numbers (i.e. emperor geese) is the highest priority of the survey. Other migratory birds and incidental wildlife species are recorded as workload allows and are summarized in Table 4. 1 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Spring conditions on the YK Delta NWR and the Bering Sea are monitored prior to the survey. At our request the U. S. Weather Service provides ice maps and ice forecasts of the Bering Sea during April. By monitoring ice conditions via sattelite imagery and the resultant breakup forecasts we can determine the approximate extent of habitat available to migrating waterfowl. Personnel at YK Delta NWR, Togiak NWR, Alaska Peninsula NWR, and Izembek NWR are also contacted to discuss the progress of spring breakup in their respective areas. During the 1990 survey, ice conditions appeared to be average. Approximately 70 to 90 percent of the Bering Sea was ice covered. There was some open water near Nunivak Island and Hooper Bay. Ice-free conditions were generally prevalent south of the mouth of the Kuskokwim River (Figure 2). Snow still blanketed the YK Delta NWR and less than five percent tundra was free of snow at the time of the survey. Coastal conditions were in sharp contrast to 1989 when even though the tundra was completely snow covered all mud flats were ice free from Hooper Bay to Nelson Island. This spring (1990) ice was prevalent on shore, scattered over mud flats, and common within one-half mile of the low tide line. The first emperor geese were noted in Jacksmith Bay during the second day of the survey (Table 1). Other major bays north of Togiak NWR used by waterfowl were mostly ice covered providing little emperor goose habitat. The number of emperor geese in Chagvan and Nanvak Bays (998) was slightly above the seven year average of 945 (Table 3). Table 3 also, summarizes the distribution of emperor geese in major estuaries by total numbers and percent of the total since 1986. The winter of 1989-90 did not reach the record setting low temperatures of the previous winter and it is believed that there may have been less overwinter mortality. The 1990 spring population is the highest gain (47.6 per cent) in emperor goose numbers from any previous spring since the survey began in 1981 (Table 2). It is also, the highest spring total since 1984. The past downward trend of emperor goose numbers is evident in Figure 3, where three year averages are plotted as a curve beginning with 1983 and annual population levels are indicated as bars. In Figure 3, 1990 is the first spring that the population (three year average) has indicated a noticeable upward trend. 2 The following species had significant population changes between the survey in 1989 and 1990 (Table 4): 1989 1990 % Change Scaup spp. 1,489 3,328 + 55 Common Eider 3,969 654 - 84 Oldsquaw 2,017 948 - 53 Harlequin 1,728 3,056 + 77 Large Gull 29,891 48,846 + 63 Mew Gull 2,121 5,987 +182 Kittiwake 6,563 21,137 +222 Murre 8,275 1,262 - 85 Seal spp. 385 1,555 +304 Sea Otter 1,034 2,888 +179 We will continue to use "other species" data to indicate spring conditions along the survey route. Eventually, mulitple past years data will be compared to explain significant population changes. CONCLUSIONS The 1990 spring emperor goose survey total of 67,581 is an increase of 46.7 percent over the spring estimates of 1989 and possibly indicates less overwinter mortality on the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Islands. Emperors were subjected to some days of poor survival conditions and probably sustained at least average overwinter mortality. Productivity estimates of 21.1 percent found in Table 2 was less than in 1988 and the previous three year average, but with a less severe winter it appeared that emperor goose survival was higher than during winter 1988-89. This would indicate weather conditions during winter have more influence on spring populations than the previous fall productivity. Possibly, even a large recruitment in fall followed by a severe winter can jeoparidize the expectations of a high spring population. If emperor geese are subjected to extreme overwinter conditions followed by delayed nesting due to poor breeding area conditions, in addition to continuing illegal harvest we could expect low population levels for several years. With this significant population increase from 1989, good nesting conditions, and the hope for at least average winter conditions 3 in 1990-91 emperor geese may well be on their way back to past higher population numbers. RECOMMENDATIONS Emperor goose management is based on the spring population survey. We believe that the spring emperor goose survey continues to be the most reliable and meaningful data to estimate the population. It is imperative that the survey team evaluate all information available prior to the survey, i.e., weather conditions, ice conditions, on ground observations (Research) and cursory aerial surveys (Refuges). Other surveys, i.e., Yukon Delta NWR goose breeding population (MBM-Anchorage), nest plot data (Research-Anchorage and Yukon Delta NWR-Bethel), fall population estimates (MBM-Fairbanks), and productivity estimates (MBM-Anchorage, Izembek NWR, Research) all are significant in understanding the population structure and trend of emperor geese and should continue. Continued information collected by the Division of Research on movements of marked birds will increase our knowledge of emperor geese during migration and hopefully identify areas of mortality. These criteria are important and necessary in judging proper timing for initiation of the survey. Future years may necessitate "fine tuning" the survey as data on timing of the spring migration is received (Research). Replicate surveys may become necessary to refine the estimate of the population. When necessary we should be prepared to expand emperor goose surveys north of the Yukon Delta NWR and west of Unimak Island. This may be accomplished with additional survey teams. Possibly one team north of the Yukon Delta and one team west of Unimak Island. This may be necessary when the survey team cannot arrive on the Yukon Delta NWR prior to the major migration of emperor geese or when reliable information exists which indicate significant numbers of emperor geese may be in habitat outside the survey area. The information from such a "coordinated" survey may give us averages of birds found in these areas. It is evident that to assist the emperor goose population to recover to past levels there must be total abstinence of all hunting for a number of years. Those who take the opportunity to hunt adult emperor geese, especially in spring, must be encouraged to understand that any additional mortality prior to breeding during low population levels is devistating to the total 4 population and prolongs the recovery to viable numbers. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We wish to thank personnel of the Yukon Delta NWR, Alaska Peninsula NWR, Izembek NWR and Togiak NWR for their continued cooperation and support of the survey in providing: bunkhouse space, vehicles, parking of aircraft in hangers, advice on migration status, and use of facilities for radio communication.
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