TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE Work Better

April 2015 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE Work better. Live better. CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015

Contents

01 Executive Summary 02 Trends Update 03 Work Transformed 04 Innovation Special Feature

05 IoT Special Feature 06 Retail and Finance 07 The Future of Education 08 Healthcare of Things CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015

Contents

01 Executive Summary 02 Trends Update 03 Work Transformed 04 Innovation Special Feature

05 IoT Special Feature 06 Retail and Finance 07 The Future of Education 08 Healthcare of Things Staff CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015

GUY BIEBER – MANAGING EDITOR / LEAD AUTHOR MATT HYNE – AUTHOR (EDUCATION, HEALTHCARE)

Guy Bieber leads the production of the Technology Landscape as Citrix’s chief futurist. Guy is the Director of Strategy and Matt Hyne is the Director of Strategy and Communications in the Citrix Technology Office and a member of the Citrix Architecture for Citrix Labs and the CTO Office. Guy drives strategy, advanced research, and architectural initiatives. Guy CTO Office. Matt is responsible for researching new technology and market opportunities that will develop into new previously served in the CTO Office at General Dynamics having worked on advanced military research and architected business areas for Citrix. Matt is also the co-lead for the Citrix Future of Healthcare initiative that is looking at applying billion dollar programs. Guy has worked on everything from large command and control centers, to wearable fighting systems, new technology innovations to improve healthcare. Prior to Citrix, Matt held R&D leadership roles at Cisco, Ericsson and to intelligence and surveillance systems, targets for the Patriot missile, and many other systems. His diverse background gives CSIRO where he developed some of the most innovative technologies that make what the Internet is today. Matt was him a unique view of the future. also General Manager, Asia with Myriad Group where he led commercial engagements with major service providers and mobile vendors including Samsung, LG, Vodafone and Softbank. REUVEN COHEN – AUTHOR (FINANCE AND RETAIL) KYARA-LOMER-CAMARENA – COPY EDITOR Reuven is recognized as an early innovator and thought leader in cloud computing. He leads worldwide advocacy efforts for Citrix, with a particular focus on increasing the reach and influence of Citrix’s extensive portfolio of technology solutions Kyara Lomer-Camarena is the strategist for the Information Experience team at Citrix, where she interacts with customers and used by more than 330,000 customers and 100 million end users across the globe. A serial entrepreneur, Reuven founded across teams to create and curate top-quality technical information experiences. Kyara is also the communications director Enomaly, which was among the first to develop a self-service infrastructure as a service (IaaS) platform in 2005, and was for Citrix CubeFree, an app that helps mobile workers find great places to work outside the office. Prior to Citrix, Kyara was an acquired by Virtustream in 2012. Reuven also founded SpotCloud in 2011, the first commodity style cloud computing Spot award-winning journalist with Tribune Co., where she has been a reporter, TV correspondent, newspaper editor, and managing Market. Reuven writes The Digital Provocateur column for Forbes.com and co-hosts the DigitalNibbles Podcast, sponsored editor of a parenting magazine. She has created more than 10 new publications and played a critical role in shifting traditional by Intel. He is the co-founder of CloudCamp (300+ Cities around the Globe), the largest unconference where early adopters of print journalism to a community-based online experience. Cloud Computing technologies exchange ideas. He has served as a board member to the Information Technology Association of Canada as well as a strategic advisor to Sun Microsystems, Amazon.com, York University, and others. DEBORA AOKI – ART PRODUCTION

As Senior Information Experience Designer at Citrix, Deb uses both her 15+ years of experience in interactive/online content KURT ROEMER – AUTHOR (HEALTHCARE, SECURITY) development and marketing, plus her 20+ years of experience in comics/illustration to facilitate brainstorming, develop storyboards for user testing, and illustrate user personas, customer journeys, and flow scenarios to drive customer-centric As Chief Security Strategist for Citrix Systems, Kurt Roemer leads the security, compliance, risk and privacy strategies for product development. Citrix products. As a member of the Citrix CTO Office, Roemer drives ideation, innovation and technical direction for products and solutions that advance business productivity while ensuring information governance. An information services DON CLAVETTE – DOCUMENT PRODUCTION veteran with more than 20 years experience, his credentials include the Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP) designation, he served as Commissioner for the US public-sector CLOUD2 initiative and he led efforts to develop Don Clavette is a Senior Graphic Designer who brings a wealth of experience in both traditional art and digital design to the PCI Security Standards Council Virtualization Guidance Information Supplement for the payment card industry while the team and is known for his imaginative illustrations and expert draftsmanship. He joined Citrix in 2002 and has since serving on the Board of Advisors. Kurt is an active member of the ETSI NFV (Network Function Virtualization) specification worked on designs for print, web, events and motion graphics. Don’s prior experience includes illustrating book and team, and is Rapporteur for developing NFV Security and Trust Guidance. magazine covers for more than 10 years for publishers such as Ballantine Books (Del Rey), Berkley Publishing Group and Warner Books to mention a few. TRENTON CYCHOLL – AUTHOR (EDUCATION)

Trenton has been part of the Citrix team for over 17 years. He has a proven track record of successfully implementing technology and solutions that have helped Citrix scale and transform. Currently, he is Managing Director of Apps and Integration Management within Worldwide Operations. His responsibilities include enterprise applications, integration technologies, business intelligence technologies, and application architecture. His innovative leadership has brought evolution to Citrix through the use of cloud technologies, mobility platforms, and strategic use of APIs at Citrix. Trenton holds a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering from Florida Atlantic University. Staff CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015

GUY BIEBER – MANAGING EDITOR / LEAD AUTHOR MATT HYNE – AUTHOR (EDUCATION, HEALTHCARE)

Executive Summary

Since last report we landed on a comet, saw the first carprinted in just 44 hours, India went to Mars for 9 times less than the U.S. mission, Apple entered the wearable market with the Apple Watch, robot sales FPO assistants arrived at Lowe’s, nanobots are under development to treat cancer, small nano-satellites image the Earth every 24 hours, Microsoft HoloLens jumped into the intersection of gaming and wearable technology, 3-D printing got 25 times faster, and so many more amazing things. “Innovation - Dramatically and irreversibly changing the world for the better.” Innovators are moving at an

-Chris Hylen astonishing pace to improve the world. This brings us to this year’s theme for the Technology Landscape: Creating Your Future. We want to IN THIS CHAPTER provide you the information and tools -- Trends Update not only to anticipate the future but -- Work Transformed

-- Internet of Things to create it.

-- Innovation

-- Finance and Retail

-- Education

-- Healthcare

-- What It All Means

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 3 01

Executive Summary

-- Internet of Things to create it.

-- Innovation

-- Finance and Retail

-- Education

-- Healthcare

-- What It All Means

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 3 Each year, the Citrix CTO Office updates you on the latest trends. This year, we added a special feature on work transformation, talking about the forces shaping the workforce and the impacts of those forces. We added a special feature on innovation Hybrid intelligence will enable best practices from the outliers who consistently get unusual results and who outperform everyone else: moonshots, unicorns, and the crazy ones. There is also a special feature on the Internet of Things, which represents the biggest expansion of computing and IT ever. We also will give you our view of these changes’ impacts on various verticals, including finance/ specialized artificial intelligence and retail, healthcare, and education. people to work together in ways that If you go on this journey with us, we will help you make sense of these dramatic changes. We will make your work more meaningful and five times more productive. We will help your company reinvent itself through innovation, and as always, we strive to help you work better and live better. dramatically outperform either alone.

Trends Update Work Transformed Innovation Internet of Things We see new, specialized computing architectures (neuromorphic, We see tremendous forces reshaping work as we know it. This year’s landscape is themed “Creating Your Future,” so we The entirety of the physical world is coming online rapidly. vision, hearing, no power) dramatically changing how we Work is no longer a place. For employees, we see more thought we would share all of the cool stuff we have learned Gartner predicts we will go from 4.9 billion network connected can sense and understand the world. We predict that simple meaningful jobs, coping with “infotoxication,” freelancing, about innovation. You probably already know about lean things today to 25 billion things in 2020. Smart things will cameras and mics will be replaced with depth cameras and remote/flex work, productivity improvement, and automation. startup, design thinking, and agile development. We looked soon outnumber every other kind of computing device, directional audio in the next five years. Just like smart TVs have For employers, this includes accelerating the speed of to role models to find the outliers of innovation, including generating more data, causing more network traffic, and all but replaced TVs, simple mics and cameras will be a thing innovation, better use of facilities, and major IT shifts (cloud, PayPal, Apple, Google, venture capitalists, DARPA, P&G, and using more cloud computing and storage. The Internet of of the past. These sensing gains represent the end of data SaaS, BYO). These forces are driving a workplace flip, where more. We have been seeking unicorns, moonshots, and the Things (IoT) promises efficiency gains, productivity gains, entry and the beginning of computing that understands us, employees co-locate 20 percent of the time and work crazy ones to create innovation gravity. Gravity is a key force and better experiences by closing real-world control loops improves our senses, and creates anticipatory experiences. elsewhere 80 percent of the time. This may be at customer behind the formation of planets and life. Innovation gravity to enable new levels of automation. Things with APIs add sites, partner sites, coworking spaces, or home, often allowing aligns the forces necessary to create continuous innovation in to the growing number of cloud-based services with APIs. them to reclaim hours of travel time each day. The office is your company. In addition, we discuss the advantages and “Integrate Everything” will be the new mantra where cloud We believe there will be tremendous productivity gains driven becoming a reconfigurable activity-oriented workspace pitfalls of “intra-preneurship” and the amazing amount of services and services provided by things work seamlessly by hybrid intelligence and robotics. Hybrid intelligence will designed for collaboration. Workers are losing large amounts innovation activities at Citrix. together. IoT will represent the end of data entry as we will enable specialized artificial intelligence and people to work of productive time because of unnecessary email (1.2 hours sense and collect all the data in real time. This represents together in ways that dramatically outperform either alone. a day), ineffective meetings (1.6 hours a day), and interruptions the biggest expansion of IT ever by bringing operational Machines are surpassing humans at some tasks. Deep learning (2 hours a day). That is over half our typical day. No wonder technology to industries that traditionally did not have IT, over massive data sets is able to build super-human capabilities people are compelled to use mobile technology to reclaim such as agriculture, construction, and city infrastructure. for some human tasks such as voice recognition and facial downtime for work. recognition. The interface to people will open up dramatically as the virtual world and physical world blend with technologies Innovation Gravity Top 10 such as Magic Leap and Microsoft HoloLens. These interfaces This rebalancing will drive changes in the individual/ will allow us to maximize use of our spatial memory to process collaborative work ratio to optimize productivity. We believe more information, understand more, and work faster. the quantified self-movement will extend to the other half 1 Many viable independent tries of our lives—in other words, work. Quantified work will be • Self-Selected 1% to 4% 2 Stories not ideas • Troublemakers • Crazy Secret like having a confidential executive assistant that helps free • Small to go Big 3 Teams not ideas • Painful Constraint The highest-impact robotics that will occur in the next five • Friends • Good Questions Burn the ships to embrace risk • Break Assumptions cognitive bandwidth (keep us present), optimize for flow (five • Prototype, Don’t Pitch 4 • Seek Intersections years are driverless cars. This will forever change public and • Accelerated Hacking 5 Learning, not failure • Seek Perspectives -time increase in productivity), and help us process information • Iterate with Customers • Avoid Competition private transportation, delivery, safety, parking, traffic, and Time-boxed Experiments 6 Think bigger • Disruption Bias at our fastest productive rate. This virtual executive coach • AARRR Metrics • car utilization (we currently utilize our cars 5 percent of the • Adoption / Value 7 Data-driven value creation will be extended with specialized hybrid intelligence that before Revenue Pareto’s Timebox time, while they sit idle 95 percent of the time). The robots 8 Scr-happiness Law will blend human and artificial intelligence together to 80% 20% EFFORT RESULT are here; they’re just not widely distributed. Robots are Creative Abrasion 9 Open innovation significantly outperform either alone. • invading sales and inventory, cleaning, security, manufacturing, • Creative Agility 10 Foster collective genius • Creative Resolution agriculture, health care, homes, and humanoid robotics are making great strides forward. This combined with cheap Illustration by Guy Bieber renewable energy will create productivity gains like we have never seen before.

4 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 5 Each year, the Citrix CTO Office updates you on the latest trends. This year, we added a special feature on work transformation, talking about the forces shaping the workforce and the impacts of those forces. We added a special feature on innovation Hybrid intelligence will enable best practices from the outliers who consistently get unusual results and who outperform everyone else: moonshots, unicorns, and the crazy ones. There is also a special feature on the Internet of Things, which represents the biggest expansion of computing and IT ever. We also will give you our view of these changes’ impacts on various verticals, including finance/ specialized artificial intelligence and retail, healthcare, and education. people to work together in ways that If you go on this journey with us, we will help you make sense of these dramatic changes. We will make your work more meaningful and five times more productive. We will help your company reinvent itself through innovation, and as always, we strive to help you work better and live better. dramatically outperform either alone.

4 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 5 As mobile technology drives a shift in Transformational medical insights and how we buy things, the revenue that research will be globally enabled through the payments industry extracts could massive volumes of continuously grow tremendously. collected sensor-based data.

For things, location really matters, and location will be Education What It All Means a major factor in the sharing and onboarding of things. Education is one of the last major industries to experience Today is amazing, and the future will be even more amazing. We hope to leave you inspired, in awe, and with some Location is as important for sensors on a pipeline as it is to significant technology disruption and transformation. For practical advice. The software-defined workspace will continue to improve your quality of life and business productivity. fleet tracking sensors or to the light bulb or to the TV you years, the education system has been modeled after factories Here is advice for individuals for over the next five years: want to control. Low power, power mining, and wireless- and “manufacturing” knowledgeable individuals for use in power technologies will soon break the last cable to things: the work environment. We are moving to a world where Learn faster – Leverage the tools that allow you to learn new skills faster. the power cord. All this new sensing will create privacy education is more about learning experiences personalized challenges, but we will come to good compromises. In the to the student. Learning can no longer be a set amount of process, we hope to make dumb things smarter without time that aligns to specific foundational degrees or training; Embrace the quantified self for work – Seek the tools that will give you mass productivity gains. adding complexity (for instance, onboarding, security, it can occur anytime and will continue to occur while interaction, sharing, and maintenance). IoT includes the “students” enter the workforce. Technologies are bringing Rebalance work – Rebalance your workday for big productivity gains. challenges of connecting devices, automating workflows, contextual opportunities to the learning experience as well and learning behaviors. Intelligence without complexity is as enhancing the learning experience and the “classrooms” Leverage hybrid intelligence – Learn to work with AI to dramatically increase your performance. the core challenge of IoT. where learning occurs. Prepare for intimate computing that knows you and anticipates your needs.

Finance and Retail Healthcare Enable robotic co-workers – Prepare for robots entering your workplace. They will offload mundane One of the biggest disruptions occurring today is being felt Deeply insightful data from “Healthcare of Things” is tasks and create different jobs. in the retail space, and the stakes are huge. The estimated transforming the management of personal health for global retail sales market is forecast to hit $28 trillion by individuals, caregivers, and medical professionals. Wearables Here is our advice for companies for over the next five years: 2018. Globally, almost 6 billion people now have access to will enable doctors and insurance companies to have a a mobile phone. The next generation of retail and the money heavily incentivized 24/7/365 picture of your key health Flip the workplace – Enable the tooling to get the most out of your remote / flex workforce, create to be made are enormous. A cashless future for businesses parameters. The routine office visit and annual physical will better activity based workspaces, and reduce your facilities cost. may require the complete overhaul of how many in retail be retired—and instead will be performed continuously. think about payments. In developed countries, money has Transformational medical insights and research will be Seek productivity gains – IoT, hybrid intelligence, and robotics promise mass productivity gains over been digital for sometime, but in the rest of the world, cash globally enabled through massive volumes of continuously the next five years. is still king. As mobile technology drives a shift in how we collected sensor-based data. But all is not rosy—traditionalists buy things, the revenue that the payments industry extracts will fight this new model in the name of regulations and Create innovation gravity – Use innovation best practices to make disruptive innovation part of how could grow tremendously. The growing use of wearable smart resistance to change, citing a longstanding healthcare you do business. technology may allow for nothing more than what you’re model. Security and privacy challenges abound, and your wearing as form of ID. Payment authorization could be healthcare data may be used against you if not properly nothing more than a smart watch, ring, or glasses—simply protected and authorized only for specific uses. Please accept our deepest gratitude for going on this journey with us, and please tell us what you think! tap, swipe, or blink an eye.

6 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 7 As mobile technology drives a shift in Transformational medical insights and how we buy things, the revenue that research will be globally enabled through the payments industry extracts could massive volumes of continuously grow tremendously. collected sensor-based data.

6 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 7 02

Trends Update

Each year we highlight the key trends and predictions. It’s been another exciting year with many past predictions coming true and a finer focus being put on the future. Each year we examine where investments are going for startups (2x2 innovation: 2 years and $2M to disrupt), prize-based innovation (4x4 innovation: 4 years and $4M to disrupt), exponential trends (things that double every one to two years), and intersections of technology.

“The pace of technological process is decoupled from The chart below summarizes the the economy.” -Steve Jurvetson key trends, and the sections below explain these trends in more detail.

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Evolved Computing

-- Hybrid Intelligence (HInt)

-- Aware, Anticipatory, and Amazing Experiences

-- The Bots Are Here Now, Just Not Widely Distributed

-- Middle Class Renaissance

-- Big Impact of Small Things

-- The New Utilities: Compute, Networks, Free Decentralized Energy

-- Security / Mobile Security

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 9 02

Trends Update

“The pace of technological process is decoupled from The chart below summarizes the the economy.” -Steve Jurvetson key trends, and the sections below explain these trends in more detail.

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Evolved Computing

-- Hybrid Intelligence (HInt)

-- Aware, Anticipatory, and Amazing Experiences

-- The Bots Are Here Now, Just Not Widely Distributed

-- Middle Class Renaissance

-- Big Impact of Small Things

-- The New Utilities: Compute, Networks, Free Decentralized Energy

-- Security / Mobile Security

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 9 NEUROMORPHIC CHIPS (NPU) GOOGLE AND STANFORD ARE APPLYING NEURAL The Human Brain Project has made significant progress in mapping the brain; they have NETWORKS TO IMAGE achieved a 20-micrometer detailed map of the human brain. We have achieved a 300,000- UNDERSTANDING AND CAN DECODE molecule model of a single synapse. This knowledge is being used to design new computing CAPTCHAS WITH A architectures. One example of these new architectures are neuromorphic chips, which are modeled after the neural networks of the human brain. DARPA Project Synapse with a neuromorphic computer chip gives a small quadcopter the ability to navigate indoors. Google 99.8% and Stanford are applying neural networks to image understanding and can decode CAPTCHAs ACCURACY with a 99.8% accuracy. Though neural networks can run on traditional computing architectures, they are much more efficient on neuromorphic chips. The United States Department of Defense expects these chips to be truly autonomous machines.

IBM’s neuromorphic chip has 4,000 cores (mimicking 1 million neurons and 256 million synapses). This chip processed the DARPA NEoVision2 Tower dataset, which recognized objects with 80 percent accuracy, processing a 30-frames-per-second (real time) video, and only consuming 63mW of power. That is a truly amazing accomplishment for visual computing. Qualcomm and others are investing in these neuromorphic architectures to put vision and hearing coprocessors into phones.

REPURPOSING GRAPHICS PROCESSING UNITS (GPU) Highly parallel GPU architectures are being reprovisioned to solve new problems. NVIDIA outperformed Google Brain (1,000 servers, 16,000 cores simulating 1 billion synapses—enough Evolved Computing for a honey bee; the human brain requires 100 billion synapses and 100 trillion connections) Moore’s law already drives today’s computation to double every 1.5 years, but we are now seeing curve-jumping compute with 12 GPUs (18,000 CUDA cores) using 100 times less energy at 100 times less cost. Currently, architectures. These specialized architectures can solve various kinds of problems faster with much less power than traditional neural networks are cartoons of the brain because we still don’t know how the brain works, NEIL JACOBSTEIN – ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (PART 1 OF 2) architectures. We are seeing compute architectures customized to solve specific problems. We expect dramatic compute said Andrew Ng. There are a tremendous amount of GPUs idling in client devices (thin clients, architecture changes in the next five years that will affect IoT, mobile, networks, and cloud computing workloads. Workloads PCs, and laptops). We have even had vendors request the ability to run workloads (like actuary that will enable hearing, vision, contextual sensing, and driverless cars. We also will see vision and speech coprocessors on calculations) on these devices when not in use. Imagine a compute buyback program to a chip bring computing to the edge of the network. handle peak cloud loads.

One of today’s most interesting use of GPU/neuromorphic chips is in deep learning, an approach to machine learning where no feature engineering is required. It is at its most interesting when used with massive amounts of data. Andrew Ng spoke of a Baidu voice recognition project that ignored phonemes by leveraging more than 100,000 hours of speech, which was unprecedented, as was the ability of that system to recognize language in noisy scenarios.

QUANTUM COMPUTING WANTS YOUR KEYS Microsoft and Google are aggressively working on their own quantum computers. Google has been making breakthroughs in making quantum computing more reliable. This type of computing will be able to crack encryption keys very quickly. This could be five to 10 years away, but this will dramatically challenge today’s security and encryption architectures and potentially lead to next-generation encryption.

POWERLESS As the Internet of Things distributes computing everywhere, supplying power to these devices becomes a real problem. Several companies are trying to overcome this limitation to create

10 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 11 NEUROMORPHIC CHIPS (NPU) GOOGLE AND STANFORD ARE APPLYING NEURAL The Human Brain Project has made significant progress in mapping the brain; they have NETWORKS TO IMAGE achieved a 20-micrometer detailed map of the human brain. We have achieved a 300,000- UNDERSTANDING AND CAN DECODE molecule model of a single synapse. This knowledge is being used to design new computing CAPTCHAS WITH A architectures. One example of these new architectures are neuromorphic chips, which are modeled after the neural networks of the human brain. DARPA Project Synapse with a neuromorphic computer chip gives a small quadcopter the ability to navigate indoors. Google 99.8% and Stanford are applying neural networks to image understanding and can decode CAPTCHAs ACCURACY with a 99.8% accuracy. Though neural networks can run on traditional computing architectures, they are much more efficient on neuromorphic chips. The United States Department of Defense expects these chips to be truly autonomous machines.

POWERLESS As the Internet of Things distributes computing everywhere, supplying power to these devices becomes a real problem. Several companies are trying to overcome this limitation to create

10 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 11 “I don’t work more autonomous and green IoT solutions. Psikick is a batteryless sensor chip for IoT that runs Artificial intelligence that can self-replicate, self-improve, and on less than 1 percent of comparable chips’ power. EnOcean is building a suite of technologies have intent hasn’t arisen yet (though we have seen aspects of on preventing AI for energy-harvested IoT. Energy harvesting collects energy from the environment through each of these in isolation). Most successful people realize that from turning evil for many means, including solar, motion, heat, and even RF energy. EnOcean includes core wireless serving others is how they can have a lasting impact; perhaps the same reason sensor technology and a suite of home security products. In truth, energy is everywhere; that is what a super-intelligence would conclude. That is why we just need better ways to access it. the once richest man in the world (Bill Gates) spends his time that I don’t work and money trying to solve world problems. Alternatively, it could on combating be like the movie “Her,” in which the artificial intelligence finds MAKERS AND MICROCONTROLLERS overpopulation on humans painfully slow to interact with and boring. They simply We are seeing tremendous innovation in the easy to use microcontroller space. The Arduino decide to leave and do their own thing. For now, we haven’t the planet Mars.” has made it easy for amateurs to connect analog and digital IO to computers. Cell phone class crossed the true AI bridge yet. computing is showing up in many maker platforms, including the Raspberry Pi, BeagleBone – Andrew Ng Black, Intel Edison, Intel Galileos, and many others. This inexpensive, powerful, and simple use Assistants Become Specialized computing allows makers and entrepreneurs to rapidly prototype their ideas. This is driving a tremendous wave of innovation in hardware. Computers will become colleagues, coaches, and executive assistants for all kinds of professionals, including doctors, lawyers, artists (music creation), etc. Laws are getting so complex that Hybrid Intelligence (HInt) software is being developed to help lawyers merely understand Last year we discussed attention economics, where we have more information coming at us the complexity of law. Services are being developed to significantly than we can filter, process, or act upon. We are in an environment of surprise and information reduce the cost of e-discovery. Your next lawyer may be more growth that we can’t handle without help. Hybrid Intelligence (HInt) enables computers and AI than a person. In fact, IBM Watson is being trained to be a people to work together to significantly outperform what either can do separately. Computers C-level assistant, participating in and contributing to executive continue to augment our intelligence and decision making. Automated intelligent specialists meetings. Pandora uses its specialized knowledge of what will work with us to solve bigger problems, cope with greater quantities of information, and people listen to to help musicians plan tours (for the price of a outperform computers or humans alone. We saw that moderately skilled computer chess free concert). Sports analytics help athletes optimize performance programs and human players working together could beat chess champions and the most (like Moneyball on steroids). Algorithms are helping design things “There is no end to advanced computers. Hybrid intelligence helps us make more connections, which are the people couldn’t do alone. For software developers, DARPA is not our desire to have essence of creativity. We are seeing tremendous advancement in understanding unstructured only working on auto code completion, but also auto-code data and making inferences with everything from IBM Watson to Quid. We are moving computers answer suggestion (anticipating your intent and writing the code for from search to found, from found to answered, and from answered to done. What is you). This will become more than software specialized for a more complex possible is becoming a matter of the quality of questions we can ask as opposed to what particular field, but instead intelligent assistants that dramatically questions.” the system can answer. improve performance. This is due to improved natural language processing and learning technologies that enable contextual – Eric Schmidt understanding and anticipatory behaviors.

Befriending or Fearing AI Present, Focused, and Optimized: Anticipating So You There is a lot of fear around AI. Some books like “Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence Can Be Present and the End of the Human Era” envision a very dystopian world where we create something that grows in intelligence so rapidly that it soon outsmarts us and takes over (not just reaching The best executive assistants allow their executive to be human intelligence, but superhuman intelligence). IoT and robotics mean computer-controllable completely present. These assistants have everything planned and computer-connected things can sense and manipulate the physical world. There certainly and anticipate needs before their bosses realize they even is an AI war going on for everything from search to stock market trading. Ultimately, whoever have them. The average worker will soon have these kinds of controls intelligence and connects to the controllable physical world will have huge impact assistants available to them virtually, whether they’re building on everyone. For now, AI boils down to counting, statistics, and relating things (Deep Neural software or building roads. This includes helping us optimize Nets, Bayesian Networks, Hidden Markov Models, Random Forest, etc.). There is no intent focus and performance through awareness of emotional and or nonhuman goals in it now (it is simply as good or ill intended as its creators). The benefits mental states (some robots can now understand trust and of this kind of AI to help us better understand and manage our world are tremendous. regret). Though we think we are good multitaskers, only about 2.5 percent of us do it well. These assistants will act more like encouraging coaches that empathize and help us achieve our best performance.

12 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 13 “I don’t work more autonomous and green IoT solutions. Psikick is a batteryless sensor chip for IoT that runs Artificial intelligence that can self-replicate, self-improve, and on less than 1 percent of comparable chips’ power. EnOcean is building a suite of technologies have intent hasn’t arisen yet (though we have seen aspects of on preventing AI for energy-harvested IoT. Energy harvesting collects energy from the environment through each of these in isolation). Most successful people realize that from turning evil for many means, including solar, motion, heat, and even RF energy. EnOcean includes core wireless serving others is how they can have a lasting impact; perhaps the same reason sensor technology and a suite of home security products. In truth, energy is everywhere; that is what a super-intelligence would conclude. That is why we just need better ways to access it. the once richest man in the world (Bill Gates) spends his time that I don’t work and money trying to solve world problems. Alternatively, it could on combating be like the movie “Her,” in which the artificial intelligence finds MAKERS AND MICROCONTROLLERS overpopulation on humans painfully slow to interact with and boring. They simply We are seeing tremendous innovation in the easy to use microcontroller space. The Arduino decide to leave and do their own thing. For now, we haven’t the planet Mars.” has made it easy for amateurs to connect analog and digital IO to computers. Cell phone class crossed the true AI bridge yet. computing is showing up in many maker platforms, including the Raspberry Pi, BeagleBone – Andrew Ng Black, Intel Edison, Intel Galileos, and many others. This inexpensive, powerful, and simple use Assistants Become Specialized computing allows makers and entrepreneurs to rapidly prototype their ideas. This is driving a tremendous wave of innovation in hardware. Computers will become colleagues, coaches, and executive assistants for all kinds of professionals, including doctors, lawyers, artists (music creation), etc. Laws are getting so complex that Hybrid Intelligence (HInt) software is being developed to help lawyers merely understand Last year we discussed attention economics, where we have more information coming at us the complexity of law. Services are being developed to significantly than we can filter, process, or act upon. We are in an environment of surprise and information reduce the cost of e-discovery. Your next lawyer may be more growth that we can’t handle without help. Hybrid Intelligence (HInt) enables computers and AI than a person. In fact, IBM Watson is being trained to be a people to work together to significantly outperform what either can do separately. Computers C-level assistant, participating in and contributing to executive continue to augment our intelligence and decision making. Automated intelligent specialists meetings. Pandora uses its specialized knowledge of what will work with us to solve bigger problems, cope with greater quantities of information, and people listen to to help musicians plan tours (for the price of a outperform computers or humans alone. We saw that moderately skilled computer chess free concert). Sports analytics help athletes optimize performance programs and human players working together could beat chess champions and the most (like Moneyball on steroids). Algorithms are helping design things “There is no end to advanced computers. Hybrid intelligence helps us make more connections, which are the people couldn’t do alone. For software developers, DARPA is not our desire to have essence of creativity. We are seeing tremendous advancement in understanding unstructured only working on auto code completion, but also auto-code data and making inferences with everything from IBM Watson to Quid. We are moving computers answer suggestion (anticipating your intent and writing the code for from search to found, from found to answered, and from answered to done. What is you). This will become more than software specialized for a more complex possible is becoming a matter of the quality of questions we can ask as opposed to what particular field, but instead intelligent assistants that dramatically questions.” the system can answer. improve performance. This is due to improved natural language processing and learning technologies that enable contextual – Eric Schmidt understanding and anticipatory behaviors.

12 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 13 Overcoming Cognitive Bias Companies like Dyson are adding vision systems to enable robotic vacuums (there are many light detection and ranging—LIDAR—based robotic vacuums on the market already). We are all blinded and served by our intuition. The trick is knowing the difference. $9.8 Computers can now recognize faces more accurately than people, and this is becoming a – Guy Bieber, BILLION Senior Director of Strategy real privacy issue. Michael Rubinstein created software to detect people’s pulse or detect MARKET PREDICTED FOR and Innovation at Citrix the breath of a baby from normal video feeds. From high-rate video feeds, he is even able NATURAL LANGUAGE to visually capture sound off anything that moves with sound (like a potato chip bag; this PROCESSING BY 2018 Our intuition both serves us and deceives us. We can’t always tell the difference, but hybrid requires high-rate video capture). Google is able to predict crime rates just by looking at intelligence could help us overcome these human cognitive limitations. There are more than Google Street View, which creates images from the visual light range. We will likely see 50 different cognitive biases that can negatively affect our perception. Biases such as THE GLOBAL WEARABLE more multispectral cameras with infrared capabilities (the Microsoft Kinect already has MARKET IS GROWING AT anchoring (how a previous event anchors perception of a following event) or confirmation infrared cameras, but others are adding this to phones). bias (actively seeking things that agree with our mental models) can be detected and potentially overcome by hybrid intelligence acting as an impartial observer. Overcoming 43.4% anchoring in an ideation session will generate 20 percent more ideas that are 40 percent HEARING MICROPHONES WITH DIRECTION CAGR forecasted to more original, according to the book Creative Conspiracy. be $30.2B in 2018 Smart beam-steering microphones that separate sounds by direction will be common in New HInT Cloud Workloads the next five years. We are already see this technology in gaming withMicrosoft Kinect, in conference rooms with Clearone, and in the home with Amazon Echo. This enables We believe HInT will drive new cloud workloads (like IBM Watson and viv) and will further MICROSOFT DAY OF computers to listen to many conversations at once (the robot Asimo can understand PRODUCTIVITY move us from apps to an invisible servant that automatically anticipates and serves our needs multiple speakers simultaneously; humans are limited to about two conversations) and in real time. For example, when someone says they are hungry in the car, the system locate and identify sounds. Using cell phones and a bit of audio software, Topher White Large displays recommends restaurants we have gone to in the past and new ones based on everyone’s was able to listen for illegal logging to save the rainforest. Directional sound has long surfaces are preferences. The movement away from apps—or rather the invisibility of apps—actually been used in the military to detect where sniper fire comes from Boomerang( system). going to drive creates a better user experience. People will do less work (selecting and starting apps) to new interaction get better results more quickly. models, information Speech recognition quality keeps getting better, and voice-based assistants are becoming We expect doctors more popular, including Microsoft Cortana, Apple Siri, Google Now, and Amazon Alexa. visualization, and to prescribe more Aware, Anticipatory, and Amazing Experiences Human language recognition is in the range of 96 percent to 98 percent. Depending on information wearables as Contextual computing has long been a dream of computer scientists—computers that the study, English machine recognition is in the range of 95 percent to 99.4 percent but manipulation understand us and our situation, and anticipate our needs. When computers see, hear, and is far worse for other languages. Natural language processing is predicted to be a $9.8 medical devices software paradigms understand, everything changes. Next-generation systems will include specialized vision billion market by 2018. in the future on the scale of and hearing coprocessors. The dream is slowly coming true. Movidious, Intel, and Freescale the interface are all working on vision co-processing chips. Here we will discuss how seeing cameras and THE WORLD IS THE DISPLAY - VISUAL SURFACES GET BIG hearing mics will replace their simple counterparts. We will also describe how the world itself change that We are visual thinkers yet, the majority or creation is still done by typing text, whether is becoming a display (augmented reality). We will talk about wearables and the rise of intimate happened with coding or writing a book. computing. We will begin to see how all of these technologies will make interacting with – Guy Bieber multi-touch computers much more natural. smart phones. Fifty-inch+ 4K displays, large touch systems (like MS Surface Hub), projected systems, and virtual reality headsets and augmented glasses will significantly increase the spatial interface SEEING CAMERAS WITH DEPTH between people and machines. A large 4K display with a thin client stick (like the new Google Smart depth cameras will be the norm in five years. Smart depth cameras will be used for Chrome Stick) could be a pretty impressive workspace. These large displays surfaces are going everything from mapping a place to recognizing people and objects to eye tracking. Depth to drive new interaction models, information visualization, and information manipulation cameras with appropriate software will provide deep spatial understanding. The first software paradigms on the scale of the interface change that happened with multi-touch generation of the sensors included things like Microsoft Kinect. Intel’s main focus at the 2015 smart phones. Projection mapping (like Microsoft RoomAlive) and augmented reality Consumer Electronics Show was the Intel Real Sense depth camera. This allowed them to transforms small spaces into huge ones to surround people in information. This will enable 3-D model people in real time and insert them in virtual environments. Intel showed this new computing interaction models. camera embedded in tablets and laptops. Google Project Tango is adding depth cameras to Flawless augmented reality is almost here with Microsoft HoloLens and Magic Leap. Solutions smart phones. At CES, many vendors were bringing less than $100 eye trackers to market that occlude vision for virtual reality are here in large numbers (Oculus Rift, Samsung Gear VR, (eyetribe for instance). Sony Project Morpheus, etc). At CES, many vendors had headgear that transformed a smartphone into a virtual reality head-tracking system. Google even gave away a cardboard It’s not just depth understanding that is making these sensors amazing. These cameras can see system for Android phones at Google IO. This technology can create a large-screen gaming your pulse, build 3-D models, detect emotion, detect things, detect people, and navigate experience or immersive virtual work experience anywhere. Imagine a meeting where people the world. Google achieved autonomous indoor flight of quadcopters with Project Tango. are projection-mapped into your whole room, and you interact with walls full of virtual content.

14 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 15 Overcoming Cognitive Bias Companies like Dyson are adding vision systems to enable robotic vacuums (there are many light detection and ranging—LIDAR—based robotic vacuums on the market already). We are all blinded and served by our intuition. The trick is knowing the difference. $9.8 Computers can now recognize faces more accurately than people, and this is becoming a – Guy Bieber, BILLION Senior Director of Strategy real privacy issue. Michael Rubinstein created software to detect people’s pulse or detect MARKET PREDICTED FOR and Innovation at Citrix the breath of a baby from normal video feeds. From high-rate video feeds, he is even able NATURAL LANGUAGE to visually capture sound off anything that moves with sound (like a potato chip bag; this PROCESSING BY 2018 Our intuition both serves us and deceives us. We can’t always tell the difference, but hybrid requires high-rate video capture). Google is able to predict crime rates just by looking at intelligence could help us overcome these human cognitive limitations. There are more than Google Street View, which creates images from the visual light range. We will likely see 50 different cognitive biases that can negatively affect our perception. Biases such as THE GLOBAL WEARABLE more multispectral cameras with infrared capabilities (the Microsoft Kinect already has MARKET IS GROWING AT anchoring (how a previous event anchors perception of a following event) or confirmation infrared cameras, but others are adding this to phones). bias (actively seeking things that agree with our mental models) can be detected and potentially overcome by hybrid intelligence acting as an impartial observer. Overcoming 43.4% anchoring in an ideation session will generate 20 percent more ideas that are 40 percent HEARING MICROPHONES WITH DIRECTION CAGR forecasted to more original, according to the book Creative Conspiracy. be $30.2B in 2018 Smart beam-steering microphones that separate sounds by direction will be common in New HInT Cloud Workloads the next five years. We are already see this technology in gaming withMicrosoft Kinect, in conference rooms with Clearone, and in the home with Amazon Echo. This enables We believe HInT will drive new cloud workloads (like IBM Watson and viv) and will further MICROSOFT DAY OF computers to listen to many conversations at once (the robot Asimo can understand PRODUCTIVITY move us from apps to an invisible servant that automatically anticipates and serves our needs multiple speakers simultaneously; humans are limited to about two conversations) and in real time. For example, when someone says they are hungry in the car, the system locate and identify sounds. Using cell phones and a bit of audio software, Topher White Large displays recommends restaurants we have gone to in the past and new ones based on everyone’s was able to listen for illegal logging to save the rainforest. Directional sound has long surfaces are preferences. The movement away from apps—or rather the invisibility of apps—actually been used in the military to detect where sniper fire comes from Boomerang( system). going to drive creates a better user experience. People will do less work (selecting and starting apps) to new interaction get better results more quickly. models, information Speech recognition quality keeps getting better, and voice-based assistants are becoming We expect doctors more popular, including Microsoft Cortana, Apple Siri, Google Now, and Amazon Alexa. visualization, and to prescribe more Aware, Anticipatory, and Amazing Experiences Human language recognition is in the range of 96 percent to 98 percent. Depending on information wearables as Contextual computing has long been a dream of computer scientists—computers that the study, English machine recognition is in the range of 95 percent to 99.4 percent but manipulation understand us and our situation, and anticipate our needs. When computers see, hear, and is far worse for other languages. Natural language processing is predicted to be a $9.8 medical devices software paradigms understand, everything changes. Next-generation systems will include specialized vision billion market by 2018. in the future on the scale of and hearing coprocessors. The dream is slowly coming true. Movidious, Intel, and Freescale the interface are all working on vision co-processing chips. Here we will discuss how seeing cameras and THE WORLD IS THE DISPLAY - VISUAL SURFACES GET BIG hearing mics will replace their simple counterparts. We will also describe how the world itself change that We are visual thinkers yet, the majority or creation is still done by typing text, whether is becoming a display (augmented reality). We will talk about wearables and the rise of intimate happened with coding or writing a book. computing. We will begin to see how all of these technologies will make interacting with – Guy Bieber multi-touch computers much more natural. smart phones. Fifty-inch+ 4K displays, large touch systems (like MS Surface Hub), projected systems, and virtual reality headsets and augmented glasses will significantly increase the spatial interface SEEING CAMERAS WITH DEPTH between people and machines. A large 4K display with a thin client stick (like the new Google Smart depth cameras will be the norm in five years. Smart depth cameras will be used for Chrome Stick) could be a pretty impressive workspace. These large displays surfaces are going everything from mapping a place to recognizing people and objects to eye tracking. Depth to drive new interaction models, information visualization, and information manipulation cameras with appropriate software will provide deep spatial understanding. The first software paradigms on the scale of the interface change that happened with multi-touch generation of the sensors included things like Microsoft Kinect. Intel’s main focus at the 2015 smart phones. Projection mapping (like Microsoft RoomAlive) and augmented reality Consumer Electronics Show was the Intel Real Sense depth camera. This allowed them to transforms small spaces into huge ones to surround people in information. This will enable 3-D model people in real time and insert them in virtual environments. Intel showed this new computing interaction models. camera embedded in tablets and laptops. Google Project Tango is adding depth cameras to Flawless augmented reality is almost here with Microsoft HoloLens and Magic Leap. Solutions smart phones. At CES, many vendors were bringing less than $100 eye trackers to market that occlude vision for virtual reality are here in large numbers (Oculus Rift, Samsung Gear VR, (eyetribe for instance). Sony Project Morpheus, etc). At CES, many vendors had headgear that transformed a smartphone into a virtual reality head-tracking system. Google even gave away a cardboard It’s not just depth understanding that is making these sensors amazing. These cameras can see system for Android phones at Google IO. This technology can create a large-screen gaming your pulse, build 3-D models, detect emotion, detect things, detect people, and navigate experience or immersive virtual work experience anywhere. Imagine a meeting where people the world. Google achieved autonomous indoor flight of quadcopters with Project Tango. are projection-mapped into your whole room, and you interact with walls full of virtual content.

14 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 15 Companies like Fidelity are already designing software to help you visualize your investments End of Passwords / Keys Computers are with these technologies. Others are writing software to enable sketching in 3-D. This represents Mobile phones and wearables are becoming the tokens of physical logons (something you have). going to be the intersection of gaming and productivity software. It means we can dramatically increase Combined with biometric fingerprints, cardiac signature nymi( or Valencell), etc., wearables aware of what the spatial memory interface between computers and people (spatial memory is our highest are significantly reducing our need to enter passwords (something you are). Microsoft is going on, bandwidth interface and represents a huge opportunity for us to cope with more information). Windows 10 will support FIDO to enable this password-free world for Windows. Some people This has the potential to be a transformative productivity enhancer. be able to learn are even experimenting with embeddable RFID to get rid of physical keys (don’t try this at your habits, home). Your mobile phone and web browser are becoming the keystores for your hundreds anticipate your INTIMATE COMPUTING: WEARABLES / EMBEDDABLES of accounts. Big changes are coming in this space. needs, and create The long predicted rise of wearables is upon us. Every major vendor made or announced a amazingly wearable in 2014: Moto 360, Samsung Gear, Microsoft Band, Apple Watch, etc. According to Delightful Retail IDC research 19.2 million shipments this year will build to a global market of 111.9 million delightful A recent WIRED article explained how Disney redesigned their retail experience with their units by 2018. The global wearable market is growing at a 43.4% CAGR forecasted to be experiences. new Magic Band. Disney’s design goal was to remove all the friction from a Disney vacation $30.2B in 2018. We see new principles arising for intimate computing: MICHAEL RUBINSTEIN: SEE experience. Everything from paperless entry to the park to restaurants that know who you INVISIBLE MOTION, HEAR SILENT SOUNDS are. You can make a reservation for a restaurant and order food on your phone. When you 1. Superhuman extension of you (hear better, see better, produce more, etc) show up, the host greets you by name, and you can sit anywhere. Your food automatically 2. The world is the interface (moving focus to the world not the device) starts being prepared and magically shows up at your table. You don’t have to wait for a 3. Act cool and be polite (aware of when it’s a good time to “talk”) check or even pull out your wallet to pay. The system allows Disney to track you in the park and create very personalized experiences for you. Imagine a “chance” encounter between 4. Respect the human condition (intimate computing requires privacy & trust) your kid and their favorite Disney character; the Disney character will even know their 5. Keep me present (anticipate for me) PERCEPTIVE INTELLIGENCE: THE name and what they like. FUTURE OF COGNIZANT 6. The right fit (like clothing it needs to be comfortable) MACHINES AND DEVICES 7. Invisible or fashionable Safer Driving We are seeing a variety of worn, attached, projected, and ingested / implanted devices Many driver-assisted features are available in cars today. Wearable headsets with accelerometers AT&T HAS (mainly medical). The uses of these intimate computing devices are endless. ALREADY MADE will be able to tell if you nod off while driving. Wrist wearables will be able to detect sleep indicators, such as a drop in heart rate or lack of movement. These sensors will also be Fitness and Health able to detect hard braking, slingshot lane changes, and other indicators of insurance risk. Of course, self-driving cars will obsolete many of these technologies. $1B Consumer wearables initially focused on fitness and track movement or steps. Now these BILLION systems can detect pulse, temperature, and cardiac rhythm. They can talk to your fitness IN THE SALES OF equipment and understand your workout. Wearables are starting to move into the medical UNDERSTANDING YOU, ANTICIPATING NEEDS, AND NATURAL INTERACTION SIM CARDS FOR domain. Accelerometers can be used to detect epileptic seizures and request help (empathica), CONNECTED CARS With the smart sensing and machine learning in mobile computing, wearable computing, and DAVID EAGLEMAN: CAN to capture gestures to control things, monitor sleep, assist in physical therapy, help athletes WE CREATE NEW SENSES the Internet of Things, computers are going to be aware of what is going on, be able to learn FOR HUMANS optimize performance, etc. Google is working on a contact lens that will continually monitor your habits, anticipate your needs, and create amazingly delightful experiences. Gartner calls blood glucose; this gives doctors and patients continuous feedback. this cognizant computing and believes it will have a tremendous impact on mobile computing. It will also set the bar in consumer space for productivity software in the business space. Many wearables are being designed to help the blind using sonar to acoustically (range

sensing wrist band and creating a 3-D soundscape of the environment) or haptically What’s an App (vibration) tell them how to avoid collisions and which way to go. Directional audio can help the deaf understand what’s around them, such as a car honking its horn, for instance Anticipatory computing represents a shift in what we mean by applications. On a desktop, (car to pedestrian communication to help people cross the street safely). There has even the file system acted as an index of what we could do; we went to a file system and clicked been an embeddable brain interface that allows paraplegics to control their world wirelessly a file to launch an app. Mobile apps are the directory of what we could do; we click on an via a 48 mbps brain interface that operates on 30 mW of power. For elderly care, wearables app, and it sends us to content. In the anticipatory world, the app and data boundary vanishes, allow children and caregivers to know if their parent is conscious, healthy, able to get out and we are presented with activity-appropriate content and interfaces. Understanding you of bed, etc. We expect doctors to prescribe more wearables as medical devices in the future; is the next step in intimate computing. Google Now presents what is most appropriate asking “Are you OK?” may become an archaic phrase because they will already know. based on context derived from our email and web browsing; it provides a glanceable card that might tell us the status of our flight or a package we ordered. Software that understands our intent by learning our habits will be able to do much more. It will know when we get up

16 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 17 Companies like Fidelity are already designing software to help you visualize your investments End of Passwords / Keys Computers are with these technologies. Others are writing software to enable sketching in 3-D. This represents Mobile phones and wearables are becoming the tokens of physical logons (something you have). going to be the intersection of gaming and productivity software. It means we can dramatically increase Combined with biometric fingerprints, cardiac signature nymi( or Valencell), etc., wearables aware of what the spatial memory interface between computers and people (spatial memory is our highest are significantly reducing our need to enter passwords (something you are). Microsoft is going on, bandwidth interface and represents a huge opportunity for us to cope with more information). Windows 10 will support FIDO to enable this password-free world for Windows. Some people This has the potential to be a transformative productivity enhancer. be able to learn are even experimenting with embeddable RFID to get rid of physical keys (don’t try this at your habits, home). Your mobile phone and web browser are becoming the keystores for your hundreds anticipate your INTIMATE COMPUTING: WEARABLES / EMBEDDABLES of accounts. Big changes are coming in this space. needs, and create The long predicted rise of wearables is upon us. Every major vendor made or announced a amazingly wearable in 2014: Moto 360, Samsung Gear, Microsoft Band, Apple Watch, etc. According to Delightful Retail IDC research 19.2 million shipments this year will build to a global market of 111.9 million delightful A recent WIRED article explained how Disney redesigned their retail experience with their units by 2018. The global wearable market is growing at a 43.4% CAGR forecasted to be experiences. new Magic Band. Disney’s design goal was to remove all the friction from a Disney vacation $30.2B in 2018. We see new principles arising for intimate computing: MICHAEL RUBINSTEIN: SEE experience. Everything from paperless entry to the park to restaurants that know who you INVISIBLE MOTION, HEAR SILENT SOUNDS are. You can make a reservation for a restaurant and order food on your phone. When you 1. Superhuman extension of you (hear better, see better, produce more, etc) show up, the host greets you by name, and you can sit anywhere. Your food automatically 2. The world is the interface (moving focus to the world not the device) starts being prepared and magically shows up at your table. You don’t have to wait for a 3. Act cool and be polite (aware of when it’s a good time to “talk”) check or even pull out your wallet to pay. The system allows Disney to track you in the park and create very personalized experiences for you. Imagine a “chance” encounter between 4. Respect the human condition (intimate computing requires privacy & trust) your kid and their favorite Disney character; the Disney character will even know their 5. Keep me present (anticipate for me) PERCEPTIVE INTELLIGENCE: THE name and what they like. FUTURE OF COGNIZANT 6. The right fit (like clothing it needs to be comfortable) MACHINES AND DEVICES 7. Invisible or fashionable Safer Driving We are seeing a variety of worn, attached, projected, and ingested / implanted devices Many driver-assisted features are available in cars today. Wearable headsets with accelerometers AT&T HAS (mainly medical). The uses of these intimate computing devices are endless. ALREADY MADE will be able to tell if you nod off while driving. Wrist wearables will be able to detect sleep indicators, such as a drop in heart rate or lack of movement. These sensors will also be Fitness and Health able to detect hard braking, slingshot lane changes, and other indicators of insurance risk. Of course, self-driving cars will obsolete many of these technologies. $1B Consumer wearables initially focused on fitness and track movement or steps. Now these BILLION systems can detect pulse, temperature, and cardiac rhythm. They can talk to your fitness IN THE SALES OF equipment and understand your workout. Wearables are starting to move into the medical UNDERSTANDING YOU, ANTICIPATING NEEDS, AND NATURAL INTERACTION SIM CARDS FOR domain. Accelerometers can be used to detect epileptic seizures and request help (empathica), CONNECTED CARS With the smart sensing and machine learning in mobile computing, wearable computing, and DAVID EAGLEMAN: CAN to capture gestures to control things, monitor sleep, assist in physical therapy, help athletes WE CREATE NEW SENSES the Internet of Things, computers are going to be aware of what is going on, be able to learn FOR HUMANS optimize performance, etc. Google is working on a contact lens that will continually monitor your habits, anticipate your needs, and create amazingly delightful experiences. Gartner calls blood glucose; this gives doctors and patients continuous feedback. this cognizant computing and believes it will have a tremendous impact on mobile computing. It will also set the bar in consumer space for productivity software in the business space. Many wearables are being designed to help the blind using sonar to acoustically (range

16 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 17 and what we like to do, perhaps news or music or both. It will help us prepare for the day too soon for cities either. Manhattan has 1.6 million residents who make 410,000 taxi trips and keep us ahead of schedule without us having to worry about it. It is human-optimizing, per day, and the average New York City commuter spends an average of 59 hours a year comfort computing at its best. stuck in traffic.

“The best Learning software will be able to predict everything. Uber can predict where you are going Driverless and driver-assisted cars are already here. They are being fine-tuned for consumers. user interface before you get in the car. Microsoft Oslo offers information, context, and contacts based The cost of the primary sensors for driverless cars has dropped from $89,000 to $8,000 and is no user on what you’re working on. Maps will be aware of your schedule and pick more pleasant are on the path down to $1,000. Freescale will be releasing a vision chip for self-driving cars routes when you have time. in 2015. Intuitive is also releasing a vision chip. NVIDIA announced a suite of driverless interface.” hardware and software at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show.

– Ninjablocks Natural Interaction THE DARPA ROBOTICS CHALLENGE Natural interaction is about interacting with a digital world effortlessly, just like you would There are still many things the Google driverless cars can’t do: go to the mountains, go off gesture, touch, speak to a person, and get visual, acoustic, and touch feedback. Gesture control grid, understand traffic cops, and avoid squirrels. Despite that, Google plans to bring itsdriverless is not only happening in watch form factors, it is happening from rings to armbands. The car to market by 2020. The Tesla Model D has several driverless features including autopark Apple Watch changes behavior based on your movement. Amazon Firefly is making it easy and freeway autopilot (lane following, speed sign recognition, and safe follow distance). to do visual searches for anything your phone can see. The new Amazon phone sports hand The Model X Tesla will have the hardware to be self-driving later this year. Elon Musk even gestures with its front-facing camera. Google is working on a completely hands-free phone commented that cars with drivers may soon be outlawed for safety reasons. Volvo will bring “Disruptive operations also. Adding a mirror to your iPad camera and a little software, and you have physical its self-parking car to market by 2017. MERCEDES-BENZ F 0 15 LUXURY IN MOTION RESEARCH CAR technology starts objects that can be recognized in virtual space. We are seeing a merging of virtual and with fear, then social digital things with iPad apps that bring in everyday objects to control the interface. Driverless cars need to be connected to communicate with infrastructure (notifications of accidents) and other cars (notification of traffic conditions), provide telemetry, and get normalization, The next generation of software will be much more aware of you. It will understand your mood, where you are, who you’re with, and what you’re doing, and anticipate what you up-to-date maps. Nokia Here is working on driverless quality maps. Delivering this safety- and finally would like to do. Mood tracking is becoming important to optimize cognitive performance. critical information to vehicles will be a big business. After all, if hackers compromise indispensability.” Yes, and there is an app for that, called Moodit. Emotiv’s new headset enables disabled autonomous vehicles, it could create spectacular hazards and accidents. AT&T has already AMAZON PRIME AIR patients to control the real world with their mind. We even now have the ability to add senses to made $1 billion in the sales of SIM cards for connected cars. Uber, on the other hand, has – Guy Bieber our bodies. It’s an amazing time to see the change in how people and the digital world interact. the software to allow a swarm of cars to efficiently deliver people to their destinations. Today, Uber’s system works with human drivers, but that might not always be the case. If you think Uber has had pushback against its service that displaces traditional cabs (Uber is banned in The Bots Are Here Now, Just Not Widely Distributed Germany with a hefty $327,000 fine per illegal ride), just wait until they go robotic. In the next five years, robotics will drive dramatic increases in network traffic, cloud workloads, energy consumption, and workforce productivity. In fact, Google’s chief economist thinks WELCOME TO MATTERNET - DELIVERY BY CAR, DRONE, AND ROBOT ROBOTS WITH CAT we are grossly underestimating the productivity gains coming for robotics (Google has Last year Google started a same-day delivery service for food and goods. This combined with LIKE REFLEXES acquired many leading robotics companies). These technologies challenge social norms its ambitions in robotics (including delivery drones, driverless cars, and humanoid robotics) (much like the industrial revolution), and current laws (for example, adding autonomous could completely change the last 10 miles of delivery. Delivery drones are already delivering drones into the commercial airspace). medicine to villages. DHL and Amazon are testing drone delivery. Amazon’s warehouse robot iROBOT AVA MOBILE ROBOTICS PLATFORM deployments (kiva) already have automated the warehouse end of delivery, having reached Lots of countries are making big bets on robotics (EU $3.9B, Japan and the UK). Manufacturing 10,000 robots by the end of 2014. You can already get overnight delivery from Amazon on has long benefited from specialized robotic automation. We are now seeing low cost and many items (often less than 24 hours). “Technology has generalized robotics showing up in many places. Robots that work for and alongside humans. TOP 3 DRONES The rest of this section covers the numerous examples of where robotics and people meet. YOU SHOULD BUY changed work, Consumer drones are expected to reach $102 million in 2015, according to Forbes (49 percent not eliminated it. growth over last year). Use cases include photography, delivery, agriculture, games, security, traffic monitoring, etc. Flying drones in the U.S. is so problematic that Amazon wrote a letter to Unemployment rates DRIVERLESS CARS the U.S. government saying it will likely move its delivery drone research out of the country. The benefits of driverless cars are almost innumerable: saved lives, saved time, reduced Surprisingly, the regulatory discussion around drones was far more complex than those of have been amazingly traffic, reallocation of parking space in cities, reduced insurance costs, car sharing, cars on driverless cars in the U.S. Companies are looking for simple and clear “free fly zone” rules for stable over the years.” demand, etc. Driverless cars can’t come too soon for many industries. The trucking industry drones. Though regulation is lagging innovation, reasonable regulation will be based on size, is facing a severe shortage of drivers (30,000 short today and 239,000 short by 2022). Daimler KIVA SYSTEM ROBOTS – Guy Bieber weight, speed, and proximity to potential hazards. In the meantime, companies like Airware says its driverless truck will solve the problem by 2025, and Mercedes is trying to crack this and agencies like NASA are trying to solve the air traffic control problem for drones. market, too (besides their efforts in consumer driverless cars). Driverless cars can’t come

18 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 19 and what we like to do, perhaps news or music or both. It will help us prepare for the day too soon for cities either. Manhattan has 1.6 million residents who make 410,000 taxi trips and keep us ahead of schedule without us having to worry about it. It is human-optimizing, per day, and the average New York City commuter spends an average of 59 hours a year comfort computing at its best. stuck in traffic.

18 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 19 SALES AND INVENTORY HEALTHCARE Lowe’s is trialing the OSHbot robotic sales assistant in their stores. This robot inventories Healthcare will make up one-fifth of the U.S. economy in a decade. This, along with aging the whole store automatically at night to know where every bar code is. This is an example populations, is driving the need for innovation in all aspects of healthcare, including robotics of the end of data entry that robotics, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things for elderly care. The age of bionics is upon us. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved could achieve. It can speak many languages, and you can tell it or show it what you want, a robotic exoskeleton for paralyzed patients to walk. Second Sight created the first bionic eye,

ORCHARD SUPPLY and it will take you there. The biggest challenge may be getting people comfortable and BrainGate has built an embeddable brain interface for paralyzed patients to interact DARPA’S REVOLUTIONARY HARDWARE’S OSHBOT engaging with these devices. with the world. NEW TANK FOCUSES ON AGILITY

CLEANING HOME Big chunks of janitorial work will be replaced by robots, or rather, the janitor will work Robots like Jibo and Amazon Echo are becoming control mechanisms and personal with robots. Robotic vacuums have become a popular consumer item. At the Consumer assistants in the home. Electronics Show, there were industrial window cleaning robots that could replace window cleaners on skyscrapers. MILITARY ROBOTICS The U.S. Navy is trying to automate many of the hazardous tasks on ships and is building “In a few hundred PHYSICAL SECURITY AND PUBLIC SAFETY on-ship fire-fighting robots. Its latest concern, though, is defending against swarming years, when the Microsoft deployed Knightscope security robots on their campus. These robots can navigate robotic boats while simultaneously building robotic swarms of its own. THE K5 SECURITY ROBOT large areas, operate for 24 hours, and alert human operators or the police if there is someone history of our time where they shouldn’t be. Drones carrying 10-pound payloads could easily be weaponized or just cause havoc like the is written from open-source graffiti drone. Five thousand dollars worth of weaponized drones beat a convoy a long-term MANUFACTURING of armored vehicles in one exercise. These drones are easy to build; in fact, there are now military-grade drones that can be printed in 3-D anywhere. The trend of people and robots working in the same space is intensifying on the manufacturing perspective, it is lines. We have seen robots like Baxter and other robotic arm systems hit the market in the likely the most last year. The same commoditization and miniaturization trends we see in other domains are PLATFORMS/CLOUD/NETWORK WORKLOADS affecting robotics for manufacturing. One firm saysmanufacturing robotics can pay for important event We are starting to see a proliferation of general-purpose robotic platforms, such as the themselves in an average of 128 days. Then financial benefits will be a driving force behind THE COLLABORATIVE ROBOT robotic operating system and iRobot’s new Ava platform, which allows third-party integration. the historians BAXTER adoption. Three-dimensional printing continues to evolve for manufacturing also; 3-D printers Stanford is working on robotic cloud solutions, which provide a robotic brain in the cloud, have even been able to print a functioning rocket and medical devices like hearing aids. will see is not as is the European Robohow. We predict robotics will drive cloud and network workloads in There are now 3-D printers that can print 25 times faster with greater structural integrity. the next 10 years, and will be a major productivity booster across industries. technology, not It is exciting times for custom and small-batch manufacturing. the Internet, nor

AGRICULTURE Middle Class Renaissance e-commerce. It is AGRICULTUAL BOTS ARE The worldwide middle class has grown to 1 billion. There is evidence that Internet-connected EXPECTED TO INCREASE 3D Robotics and many others (literally hundreds of vendors at CES this year) are trying to the unprecedented CROP YIELDS BY apply drones to improve crop management for all kinds of crops including vineyards. smart phones help drive poor countries out of poverty. Worldwide, the middle class is Agricultural bots are expected to increase crop yields by 25 percent. High-tech farm equipment growing rapidly. change in the is needed to compete these days, but it comes with a significant repair cost. Data-driven robotic human condition. 25% agriculture is upon us. These efforts include replacing large-scale equipment with smaller THE POWER OF ABUNDANCE autonomous vehicles that more accurately spray, water, and harvest crops for maximum yields. For the first time — The world and quality of living continues to get better. We get more for less all the time. In the past we talked about the power of abundance: free services on the Internet (from literally— substantial HUMANOID ROBOTICS education to maps), sharing economy (cars, rooms, meals), giving economy (free startup and rapidly growing DARPA Robotics Challenge finals will occur in June 2015 with untethered robots and capital), and better value for just about everything (software, streaming services, all-you- degraded communications. These are very expensive robots, but they are proving humanoid can-read books). Give people unlimited knowledge and cheap powerful tools, and they number of people will amaze you. These forces provide a tremendous amount of assets to anyone with a robots are both doable and valuable. Though robots require maintenance they don’t require have choices” CYBORG THE FUTURE network-connected mobile phone. The prices of smart phones continue to drop well OF HUMANITY motivation or a human resources department, they are always 100% engaged. below the $100 mark without a contract bringing more of the world online all the time. – Peter F. Drucker

20 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 21 SALES AND INVENTORY HEALTHCARE Lowe’s is trialing the OSHbot robotic sales assistant in their stores. This robot inventories Healthcare will make up one-fifth of the U.S. economy in a decade. This, along with aging the whole store automatically at night to know where every bar code is. This is an example populations, is driving the need for innovation in all aspects of healthcare, including robotics of the end of data entry that robotics, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things for elderly care. The age of bionics is upon us. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved could achieve. It can speak many languages, and you can tell it or show it what you want, a robotic exoskeleton for paralyzed patients to walk. Second Sight created the first bionic eye,

20 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 21 “There is a widening In 1900, only 3 percent of U.S. homes had electricity. Today you can rent a solar energy required. We are starting to understand the impacts of many genes (KL-VS on aging, “Two things we need skills gap where the system that will cut your energy costs in half. Even the poorest countries are getting access diabetes treatments, better hearing transplants, genes for weight control, controlling every morning: coffee to micro-credit where they can get capital to start a business, simple solar power kits, or cholesterol, understanding evolution), and this changes the meaning of “know thyself” existing workforce inexpensive filter systems for clean water. At no other time in history has so much been and likely how we improve ourselves. Soon we will understand why a particular jellyfish and hope. Joy is free. has been educated available to so many. is immortal. Soon we will be able to do anything a chemical computer (cells) can do on At that price, I will demand. We are getting much better at manipulating the code of life with the genome and trained to obtain have it every day” compiler, printing DNA, and booting up cells. This capability has become so mainstream FASTER CHEAPER WAYS TO BETTER JOBS the jobs of yesterday that the band OK Go offered their latest album printed in DNA (not sure how you play – Guy Bieber The barrier to training for better employment is being lowered. A four-year degree and and not the jobs of that). That may be a publicity stunt, but it is amazing none the less. We are also making the debt it creates isn’t the only path to better employment. One study estimates that progress in regenerative medicine at printing bigger things like organs. today and tomorrow” by 2020 there will be a 10 percent shortage of highly skilled workers and an 11 percent

– Jeff Weiner surplus of medium-skilled workers. The U.S. currently has 500,000 open jobs that require CEO of LinkedIn technical skills. Automation, Robotics, and IoT will certainly cause a shift in jobs to more NANOTECHNOLOGY skilled labor (or at least labor these technologies aren’t good at). Jacob Morgan of Forbes Arguably really small things have already been driving innovation. We carry the miracle of also highlights the need to move from knowledge workers to learning workers due to the nanotechnology in the phones in our pockets. We are inventing nanoparticles that detect speed of technology evolution, i.e. the job skills “use by date” is shorter than ever before. cancer in blood. We are creating gecko-inspired adhesives that allow us to scale buildings.

Nanostructured materials are improving material strength and batteries. Nissan even WHAT IF 3D PRINTING WAS invented a new paint that enables a self-cleaning car. The miracles of nanomaterials are 100X FASTER Through the TechHire Initiative, U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to fill these jobs affecting many industries. with people who have the skills but don’t have the degrees by rapidly training the middle class for better jobs. During the U.S. State of the Union Address, Obama even suggested that community college be made free for everyone (college education is free in many REVERSE ENGINEERING THE BRAIN other countries). Knowledge for better employment is not a question of access anymore; MICHIO KAKU: WHAT DOES THE As part of the $100 million brain engineering project started by U.S. President Barack Obama, FUTURE LOOK LIKE? its a question of desire and time, and it can be achieved in less time without the debt of DARPA is working on a brain implant to restore memory and a $70 million program for an a four-year degree. Udacity offers three to nine month nanodegree programs to learn a implant to control emotions. As previously discussed, this research is driving new much skill such as web programming. Some students are choosing to go to Make School instead more efficient neuromorphic compute architectures. of MIT and then into a startup (one high school graduate landed a $90,000 job this way). In the U.S. alone, there is a $1 trillion education debt bubble caused by student loans. The average college degree has gone up 1,120 percent since 1978 with 44 percent of SWARMS VERSUS GOLIATH graduates being underemployed (however, people with a bachelor’s degree or higher still We are finding swarms of intelligent things can overcome large systems. The U.S. Navy is so have the lowest unemployment rates). concerned about swarming boat threats that it’s working on a design that will thwart it. In one exercise, $5,000 of weaponized drones beat a convoy of armored vehicles. SRI is using research in swarming smart things to construct anything, Disney is using it for entertainment, GROSS DOMESTIC HAPPINESS and Harvard is using it just because it can. Groups of smart small things will continue to There is a growing shift in perception on the nature of success and growth. The modern have significant impacts. measure of the success of nations—gross domestic product—has only been around since 1937. Now countries are trying to measure quality of life with Gross National Happiness. Millennials tend to value experiences over things; the biggest car, biggest house, or big The New Utilities: Compute, Networks, Free Decentralized Energy office on the top floor aren’t the goals anymore. Generations X, Y, and Z want to be more We predict networks, computing, and free decentralized energy will be treated like new independent by freelancing (see section on the transformation of work) or starting their utilities as critical infrastructure. own businesses. Success is not measured solely in monetary terms anymore.

COMPUTE Big Impact of Small Things Cloud infrastructure including compute, storage, and worldwide deployment continues to Between chemical computers, nanotechnology, understanding the brain, and robotic swarms, drop in price. 451 Research has created a Cloud Pricing Index. Today a typical web application small things are making a big impact. costs between $7,000 ($0.80 per hour) and $15,000 ($1.70 per hour) per year. This low starting cost and linear growth model is driving more corporations to the cloud. With corporations and governments moving to the cloud, the cloud is becoming critical CHEMICAL COMPUTERS - DNA GONE WILD infrastructure to run the economy. Sequencing genomes isn’t the problem any more (Illumina estimated 228,000 human genomes were sequenced in 2014); now the computing needed to decode this data is

22 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 23 “There is a widening In 1900, only 3 percent of U.S. homes had electricity. Today you can rent a solar energy required. We are starting to understand the impacts of many genes (KL-VS on aging, “Two things we need skills gap where the system that will cut your energy costs in half. Even the poorest countries are getting access diabetes treatments, better hearing transplants, genes for weight control, controlling every morning: coffee to micro-credit where they can get capital to start a business, simple solar power kits, or cholesterol, understanding evolution), and this changes the meaning of “know thyself” existing workforce inexpensive filter systems for clean water. At no other time in history has so much been and likely how we improve ourselves. Soon we will understand why a particular jellyfish and hope. Joy is free. has been educated available to so many. is immortal. Soon we will be able to do anything a chemical computer (cells) can do on At that price, I will demand. We are getting much better at manipulating the code of life with the genome and trained to obtain have it every day” compiler, printing DNA, and booting up cells. This capability has become so mainstream FASTER CHEAPER WAYS TO BETTER JOBS the jobs of yesterday that the band OK Go offered their latest album printed in DNA (not sure how you play – Guy Bieber The barrier to training for better employment is being lowered. A four-year degree and and not the jobs of that). That may be a publicity stunt, but it is amazing none the less. We are also making the debt it creates isn’t the only path to better employment. One study estimates that progress in regenerative medicine at printing bigger things like organs. today and tomorrow” by 2020 there will be a 10 percent shortage of highly skilled workers and an 11 percent

22 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 23 NETWORKS Lithium air batteries are doubling the life of car batteries. SolidEnergy is building a lithium Many of our computing experiences today require a reliable network connection just for basic ion battery that stores two times the energy, and graphene promises four times the density. functions for everything from Chromebooks to mobile apps. We are becoming less tolerant Singapore has a new technology that can charge a cell phone in two minutes. Many of unreliable networks and more reliant on networks in general. Whether that is a business technologies are enabling batteries and solar cells as thin as paper. Progress is being made with poor connectivity, hotels, planes (in-flight Wi-Fi is undergoing a major upgrade from on other energy sources, with Lockheed Martin claiming it can bring nuclear fusion to 4.9 Mbps to 70 Mbps per plane), or just to watch videos that don’t skip (video now represents market in the next 10 years. 52 percent of mobile traffic). We expect businesses to provide free Wi-Fi, and people are more

than happy to provide personal information to get access. Openwireless.org is even trying Electricity as a utility, besides becoming more renewable, is more decentralized. BMW and to get everyone to share their network connections via a free router firmware upgrade. Tesla offer free charging networks for their electric cars. First Solar provides home solar systems based on cost-saving sharing. The U.S. military even believes that inexhaustible energy is As of 2014, 3 billion people are now online, and this Internet growth is challenging the routing coming. Solar Impulse is actually attempting the first around the world flight with a completely MACHINE TRAFFIC IS GROWING BY tables in existing router infrastructure. Google project loon is delivering Internet connectivity solar powered plane. Companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook are building solar farms to previously unreachable parts of the world like the Australian Outback (though not the to run their data centers. The technology is improving so fast that it is probable that countries primary focus). They have already traveled 3 million kilometers and stayed in the air for 130 with little power today will have free abundant power for a very small investment. We could 35% days. Elon Musk is considering microsatellite technology for worldwide Internet coverage. even drop the power cords with technology like the one being developed by Witricity that ANNUALLY 5G technology is coming by 2020. Others like Artemis and Dish Network are working on a can wirelessly send power for 15 feet. The impact of unlimited almost free renewable networking solution that’s 1000 times faster than 4G to beat 5G to market. It is clear that energy on society will be dramatic. networking speed and access will define the type of society we live in.

Security / Mobile Security Fiber and gigabit connections to the home are becoming more common. Beside delivering Mobility is not an option. In fact, it’s the default state of work and play. Security is equally higher-density content to more displays (4K TVs for instance), this bandwidth reduces the speed not an option; it is required. Coupled with privacy and safety, security will be much more and jitter to cloud computing resources. Delivering a virtual computer to your home over ingrained and augmented in our daily lives and routines. As both evolve into 2020, it is this type of connection will be really fast. For many homes where the only wired connection critical to be simultaneously more mobile and secure. Technology must augment policy to goes into a wireless router, this may require a wireless router upgrade to realize the benefits. balance security and functionality into an experience that consistently meets the demands TOP HACKER SHOWS US HOW of both enterprise and individual—and is easy to understand, use, and maintain. IT’S DONE – PABLOS HOLMAN The networks connecting our mobile phones, critical Internet of Things devices, and soon driverless cars/robotics are becoming safety-critical. Machine-to-machine traffic over mobile Predictions for the intersection of mobility and security in 2020 include: networks accounts for 3 percent of mobile connections but is growing at 35 percent annually. Spark even announced an IoT microcontroller with a pay-as-you-go cellular plan. U.S. President Obama is even in favor of classifying the Internet as a utility while debates still rage on net •• Your digital life becomes your default persona, dynamically managing individualized security and privacy objectives. MICHEL GELOBTER – neutrality with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission voting for a Internet fast lane. THE FUTURE OF ENERGY The United Nations has even declared Internet access as a basic human right. •• Wearables replace smartphones as the primary mobile device—and as primary security factors for authentication and authorization. •• Connectedness to vehicles, homes, and healthcare instrumentation require FREE DECENTRALIZED ENERGY physical security interfaces to be mission-grade. Last year we talked about improvements in power generation, storage, reduced charge •• DNA-augmented authentication and authorization uniquely identifies you as you times, and increased efficiency. These trends of improvement are continuing. We are and makes it difficult to be anonymous. also using less energy. The U.S. used 12 percent less energy in 2013 than in 2010, while “Security be damned—we have to get this product to market” will be a vendor slogan of increasing devices from 2.9 billion to 3.8 billion. the distant past.

Costa Rica and Iceland already run on 100% renewable energy sources. The U.S. is producing renewable energy much more efficiently.New solar designs convert 25.6 percent of the sun’s energy into power. This breaks a 20-year record of 25 percent. Organic solutions from nature suggest we can reach 95 percent efficiency. Other technologies likeadaptive lenses could cut the cost of solar power in half. We are making progress on better techniques for converting solar power into hydrogen. Futurist Ray Kurzweil believes solar power will be unlimited and free in 20 years.

24 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 25 NETWORKS Lithium air batteries are doubling the life of car batteries. SolidEnergy is building a lithium Many of our computing experiences today require a reliable network connection just for basic ion battery that stores two times the energy, and graphene promises four times the density. functions for everything from Chromebooks to mobile apps. We are becoming less tolerant Singapore has a new technology that can charge a cell phone in two minutes. Many of unreliable networks and more reliant on networks in general. Whether that is a business technologies are enabling batteries and solar cells as thin as paper. Progress is being made with poor connectivity, hotels, planes (in-flight Wi-Fi is undergoing a major upgrade from on other energy sources, with Lockheed Martin claiming it can bring nuclear fusion to 4.9 Mbps to 70 Mbps per plane), or just to watch videos that don’t skip (video now represents market in the next 10 years. 52 percent of mobile traffic). We expect businesses to provide free Wi-Fi, and people are more

24 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 25 03

Work Transformed

Citrix always has strived to help people work better and live better. There are moments in time where work has made a major shift, for instance from rural agriculture to urban work or from craftsman to industrialization. The workplace is undergoing another major shift from a physical workspace to a software-defined workspace, where the experience, flexibility, and security are central. Flexibility means working “Enlightened vendors will take responsibility for the entire experience.” from anywhere, at anytime, on an Saul Gurdus President of Insights and Enablement, Customer Experience, at Citrix device, with anyone. Societal views on job satisfaction and the best way It’s more important to improve people’s lives than sell them a product to improve productivity are changing. Apple Sales Training In fact the core relationship between employers and employees is changing as we shift to more of a freelancing IN THIS CHAPTER economy. The Internet of Things is -- Forces Driving Workplace Change the next wave of IT that is turning -- Flipping the Workplace

-- Rebalancing Work everyone into knowledge workers,

-- Quantified-Self for Work from farming to construction.

-- Hybrid Intelligence at Work - Meet Your Robotic Coworker

-- Changing Spaces

-- Talent Matching - I Will Create My Own Job Thanks

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 27 03

Work Transformed

-- Rebalancing Work everyone into knowledge workers,

-- Quantified-Self for Work from farming to construction.

-- Hybrid Intelligence at Work - Meet Your Robotic Coworker

-- Changing Spaces

-- Talent Matching - I Will Create My Own Job Thanks

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 27 Forces Transforming Work Infotoxification “You can’t beat more Last year we talked about the rate of information growth and amount of information we productivity out of Meaning / Infotoxicated Engagement IT Shifts are expected to filter, understand and act upon. We are overwhelmed; we are “infotoxicated.” knowledge workers. Tools that are used to help us communicate now consume big chunks of our workday. 2x The only way you 87% Information every 1.5yr C.A.B.S. According to McKinsey, 30 percent of work time is spent on emails, and half of that time is Job Disengagement Cloud Automate wasted. Another study suggests that only a quarter of emails are actually essential. We can get people to do BYO SaaS need better tools to manage our work information life. Freelance more is to make them relatively happy.” 40% Freelancing by 2020 in US & Innovation Changing – Phil Libin 50% YOY earnings growth Speed Freelancing has grown dramatically. Forty percent of the U.S. workforce is expected to be Evernote CEO Relationship of Work freelance by 2020. That is a huge number and trend. Uber is essentially an app driven labor Remote / Flex 15-50% market (as is 100s of other platforms like Elance). Though freelancers get less corporate CEO Desired perks (like stock and 401Ks; some wonder if they can ever retire), their earnings have grown Disruptive Growth 50%by 2020 50 percent year over year for the past five years. Freelancing is often in very skilled labor such as patent law, programming, and investment research. The rise in freelancing may be Automated Productivity Facilities ROI related to the desire of people to have better control of their time and the desire of corporations 47% < 45% to go really fast by getting the precise talent they need (for a shorter period of time). US Jobs at risk in next -4.8h -2h (interruptions) Utilized & Second 10 to 20 years - 1.6h (meetings) - 1.2 (email) Largest Expense Remote and Flex Work Illustration by Guy Bieber By 2020, it’s expected that half of the workforce will be remote. This is not only something Forces Driving Workplace Change employees are demanding, but it is being legislated in countries like the UK. One survey found There are many forces driving workplace change for employees and employers. Much of this can be tied to productivity that 43 percent of employees would take a flex work arrangement over a raise. There are many and operational gains. big-name companies that support remote work for a surprising variety of jobs. Flexibility includes the option to work less for less pay; for example, a four-day work week. Flex work RSA ANIMATE – REIMAGINING WORK is extending into vacation policy with companies like Netflix and Virgin moving to unlimited EMPLOYEE FORCES leave policies to help drive productivity of creatives in an outcome-based work environment. “Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to According to “The Digital Renaissance of Work: Delivering Digital Workplaces Fit for the be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the Future” remote workers see a 20 percent to 55 percent increase in productivity. This is also generating significant facility cost savings for organizations like NASA (saved $21 million in only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found 2012) and Glaxo Smith Kline ($10 million annually).

it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle. As with all matters of the heart, Productivity you’ll know when you find it.” Procaffeinating: The tendency to not start anything until you have had a cup of coffee. – Facebook – Steve Jobs

Productivity gains drive economic growth. There are many things detracting from our productivity. We lose two hours a day to interruptions. We waste 31 hours a month in Meaning / Engagement unproductive meetings. A FranklinCovey study of 351,000 workers found that 40 percent of our workday is spent on unimportant things—things not central to what we were hired “Most of motivation is feeling good about what you’re going to be doing.” to do. If we could stay in a flow state for work, we couldincrease our effectiveness by 500 – Guy Bieber percent. One Gartner study estimates BYOD could claim 32 hours of down time for work on a personal device. There are huge opportunities for productivity gains here. A recent Gallup poll found 87 percent job disengagement worldwide. Another survey found that 74 percent of workers want to leave their job. Yet another survey found that 83 percent of Americans are stressed out at work, with 80 percent working more than 48 hours a week. These statistics represent an epidemic of job dissatisfaction. Millennials will become the majority of the workforce in 2015, and they value experiences over things. People want to have more meaningful and engaging work.

28 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 29 Forces Transforming Work Infotoxification “You can’t beat more Last year we talked about the rate of information growth and amount of information we productivity out of Meaning / Infotoxicated Engagement IT Shifts are expected to filter, understand and act upon. We are overwhelmed; we are “infotoxicated.” knowledge workers. Tools that are used to help us communicate now consume big chunks of our workday. 2x The only way you 87% Information every 1.5yr C.A.B.S. According to McKinsey, 30 percent of work time is spent on emails, and half of that time is Job Disengagement Cloud Automate wasted. Another study suggests that only a quarter of emails are actually essential. We can get people to do BYO SaaS need better tools to manage our work information life. Freelance more is to make them relatively happy.” 40% Freelancing by 2020 in US & Innovation Changing – Phil Libin 50% YOY earnings growth Speed Freelancing has grown dramatically. Forty percent of the U.S. workforce is expected to be Evernote CEO Relationship of Work freelance by 2020. That is a huge number and trend. Uber is essentially an app driven labor Remote / Flex 15-50% market (as is 100s of other platforms like Elance). Though freelancers get less corporate CEO Desired perks (like stock and 401Ks; some wonder if they can ever retire), their earnings have grown Disruptive Growth 50%by 2020 50 percent year over year for the past five years. Freelancing is often in very skilled labor such as patent law, programming, and investment research. The rise in freelancing may be Automated Productivity Facilities ROI related to the desire of people to have better control of their time and the desire of corporations 47% < 45% to go really fast by getting the precise talent they need (for a shorter period of time). US Jobs at risk in next -4.8h -2h (interruptions) Utilized & Second 10 to 20 years - 1.6h (meetings) - 1.2 (email) Largest Expense Remote and Flex Work Illustration by Guy Bieber By 2020, it’s expected that half of the workforce will be remote. This is not only something Forces Driving Workplace Change employees are demanding, but it is being legislated in countries like the UK. One survey found There are many forces driving workplace change for employees and employers. Much of this can be tied to productivity that 43 percent of employees would take a flex work arrangement over a raise. There are many and operational gains. big-name companies that support remote work for a surprising variety of jobs. Flexibility includes the option to work less for less pay; for example, a four-day work week. Flex work RSA ANIMATE – REIMAGINING WORK is extending into vacation policy with companies like Netflix and Virgin moving to unlimited EMPLOYEE FORCES leave policies to help drive productivity of creatives in an outcome-based work environment. “Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to According to “The Digital Renaissance of Work: Delivering Digital Workplaces Fit for the be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the Future” remote workers see a 20 percent to 55 percent increase in productivity. This is also generating significant facility cost savings for organizations like NASA (saved $21 million in only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found 2012) and Glaxo Smith Kline ($10 million annually).

28 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 29 Automation/Push to Skilled Jobs Making everything look effortless isn’t.

One Oxford study found that 47 percent of U.S. jobs are at risk in the next 10 to 20 years. Fast Company highlighted the 10 most at-risk jobs in 2014, which include jobs like mail carriers and farming. Much of IT administration is expected to be automated. In fact, the cost and speed of automation continues to decrease and create a mashable world. With the speed of knowledge obsolescence, reinvention is becoming a major job skill.

EMPLOYER FORCES BEFORE AFTER Speed of Innovation Tyranny of Location Remote Work Tyranny of Time Flex Work “Innovation is a team sport.” Commute Times Time Saved – Martin Duursma, Tied to the Ofﬁce More Customer / Partner Time VP Citrix Technology Office Un-scalable Physical Collocation Digital Scalability Expensive Facilities Facility Cost Reduction Companies that don’t continually innovate quickly disappear. In fact, one survey found that that CEOs expect 15 percent to Dedicated Facilities Activity Based Facilities 50 percent of their companies growth to come from disruptive innovation. Some companies like 3M enforce the 30 percent rule, which says 30 percent of revenue must come from products brought to market in the last year. That is a significant Co-location to drive serendipitous connections is like limiting your significant-other selection to people you can find at disposition for innovation. a particular bar. Why isn’t there a Match.com for serendiptious work connections? CubeFree is an example of such an app Return on Facilities Investment that not only allows you to find places to work, but to make serendipitous connections with others. Often problems are solved more quickly by posting to social tools rather than direct emails; most often problems are solved by people the requester According to Unwork, facilities are the second-largest corporate cost but are less than 45 percent utilized. This is a very didn’t even know. Limiting serendipitous connections by how many people you can put on a campus seems a foolish poor return on such a large investment and has companies rethinking how they should utilize space. Forrester estimated approach for the digital age. 61 percent of information work happens outside the office.

IT Shifts - Cloud, SaaS, BYO Travel time has a real human cost. As the book “Remote: Office Not Required” points out, even a half-hour each way commute costs more like 1.5 hours a day. That’s 7.5 hours a week—almost a full work day. The book “The Custom-Fit Workplace” talks IT continues to move more things out of the data center into the cloud. IT is also using more SaaS services instead of about the importance for adjusting all aspects of working conditions to enable greater employee productivity. Work-from- self-hosted services. IT is supporting more BYO-Everything from devices to identities. This is shifting what IT does and office advocates and work-anywhere advocates agree on at least one thing: people still need aprivate productivity space. forcing them to move toward new value propositions like creating better organizational workflows, personalizing solutions for individual employees, and managing the new information workloads of the organization. BENEFITS OF DECOUPLING WORK FROM LOCATION Flipping the Workplace Decoupling work from an office has a lot of benefits. Companies have a larger talent pool to choose from. Companies are more decentralized and disaster tolerant. Companies can reduce their facilities costs. Employees have the opportunity to spend more time with customers and partners. Employees can have less interruptions and more flow time. They can save In conventional ideas of work, you spend the majority of your work time bound to an office and maybe 20 percent of the time for commuting. Employees can work where they feel most productive. All these factors lead to increased time at other locations, such as customer or partner sites. This tyranny of location can limit talent pools, create wasted productivity. commuting time, and damage employee engagement. We believe that the workplace will flip because of remote and flex work, the rebalancing of the work activities, and technology (technology that will enable virtual teams to outperform co-located ones). Of course, some types of work, like restaurant work, will still strongly bind employees to where customers BENEFITS OF DECOUPLING WORK FROM TIME are. We believe that the new normal will be 20 percent co-located at a traditional worksite and 80 percent at nontraditional Decoupling work from a specific eight-hour period has many benefits. It enables easier interactions across time zones. As workplaces, including home, third spaces (co-working spaces, coffee shops, etc.), customer sites, partner sites, etc. Often Citrix CEO Mark Templeton has pointed out in the past, it allows the interleaving of work and life activities. It also enables being at the office is part of the productivity problem due to interruptions and distractions; people will go where they are talent to come from any geography and enable 24-hour operations. Much like we have deferred viewing with devices like most effective and can have the most impact. Tivo, Roku, or services like Netflix, we often need deferred work interactions. This happens through email, social tools, and even chat.

PROBLEMS WITH BEING THERE Is the most efficient work location always “the office?” Modern offices have become interruption factories Remote:( ACTIVITY-ORIENTED WORKSPACES Office Not Required). Co-location helps communication, but only to a point. Sociometric Solutions has found that team Given the expense and underutilization of facilities, how can we use this investment more effectively? Offices are becoming interactions break down very quickly over distance. People on different floors of a building might as well be in different a hub for face-to-face collaborative work instead of a place to store employees for eight hours a day. Activity-oriented workspaces countries. Co-location quickly breaks down with scale. Co-locating a 10-person team can be very beneficial (very provide environments customized to the work being done there. Maya Design has neighborhoods that people choose as a common in startups), but does co-locating 10,000 employees really help you? home (often multi-disciplined), project work spaces that are allocated on demand, as well as kivas, which are round rooms that have white-board-covered walls for creative activities.

30 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 31 Automation/Push to Skilled Jobs Making everything look effortless isn’t.

30 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 31 IDEO has neighborhoods with all the tools of creation out in the open, eliminating the friction to action. IDEO encourages employees to sit in different locations to mix ideas. Co-working spaces have a lot of these characteristics and the added Re-Balancing Work benefit of providing access to knowledgeable people you didn’t have to hire; co-working spaces have become the modern communes of creativity. Many of these spaces offer access to specialty tools, provide training and mentoring, provide Individual Work startup funding, and help with prototyping. Co-working spaces, much like universities, have a concentration of different Use Flow for skillsets in a small space. That is a recipe for intersectional innovation. Timebox 5X the productivity 5x

Your Information Avoid Productivity DIGITAL NOMADS: TRAVEL LESS, UNLESS THAT’S YOUR THING Processing 3x < 50h Drop-off We will do less travel for work—unless we really want to. There is a growing group of digital nomads who travel the world and work. There are even services to help arrange your travel and companions for nomadic work. The idea being that they are increasing their worldview, running into more interesting ideas, and generally having more fun. • Kill the Commute • Batch Activities • Shorten Meetings Rebalancing Work • Interruptions What is the right balance of individual work, collaborative work (relationship building, meetings, group work) and chance • Context Switching Use the Crowd encounters for optimal individual and group productivity? There is a core tension of effective individual and group work. • Decision Fatigue

Many studies suggest work activities are overdue for a rebalancing (see the forces shaping work). One study says our main Remote Work 20-50% Free Cognitive Collaborative communication tools, emails and meetings, are our biggest source of lost productivity. Your ratio of collaborative and Productivity 20% EFFORT 80% Create Boost Results Bandwidth Work individual work depends on how much organizational learning is needed. Startups practicing extreme programming Serendipity may work collaboratively the majority of the time. Illustration by Guy Bieber

Tools like Google Docs allow you to see when other people are working on the same thing as you, much like an Xbox allows INDIVIDUAL WORK players to know when their friends are playing and enables instant communication with them. Tools like this can also be used If we can increase “flow” just 20 percent during individual work, we can double productivity. Flow states have the added to do ideation sessions with virtual stickies. It allows everyone to contribute at once, which is key to good innovation meetings. benefit of increasing employee engagement. As we previously stated, research suggests that the optimal period of focus is 52 minutes followed by a 17-minute break. During that 52-minute interval, we need to eliminate interruptions. Remember, SERENDIPITY AND GETTING UNSTUCK interruptions on average cost us eight hours a week. So we need to reduce interruptions and have them occur at a preferred One benefit of co-locating a small team is they can help each other get unstuck. They are aware of the speed of production, time. This means turning off email notifications, SMS message notifications, chat message notifications, etc. The trend and when they get stuck on something, workmates can help show them the fast way of doing things. The truth is that this toward 50 percent remote work can help create the conditions for ample uninterrupted work time. effect can be achieved virtually and often more effectively.

COLLABORATIVE WORK AND RELATIONSHIP BUILDING When someone is looking to solve a problem in email, there is a limited group who may have encountered their problem. Research suggests we can cut meetings in half (remember the stats on half of meeting time being wasted). Why do meetings You are much more likely to get an answer to your problem if you can crowdsource instead of collaborate. By that we take 30 or 60 minutes? Are all problems only solvable on 30-minute intervals? Why not 20 minutes or 40 minutes? Why not mean going to the appropriate crowd via a wiki, bulletin board, or even Twitter. This increases your chance of success by end the meeting as soon as you have achieved its purpose? Keep the rest of the time open for meeting reflection, what casting your net wider. Typically on these types of networks, the answers don’t come from people you know. That is actually happened in the meeting, followup, and important human needs such as rest breaks. It is worthwhile to experiment creating your own serendipity. with how short you can make meetings and still achieve your goals (having clear goals is a good idea, too). Why not optimize meeting times for when it’s optimal for everyone, like when they are available and not in a highly productive flow state? Another way to create serendipity is to create random meetings with co-workers virtually. Hallway conversation effects We believe that these types of rendezvous meetings will be more common. are limited to the people who happen to be in the same hallway. Just like dating, we have tools to help match people; we can match people in the organization who should meet. We can create intentional chance encounters. In a flipped workplace, face-to-face meetings are as much about collaborative work as they are about relationship building. Meeting in a context outside work helps people get to know each other, relax, and get into a group flow state riffing off each others ideas (like great jazz musicians). Great teams truly like each other and hanging out together (according to the Quantified-Self for Work book “Zero to One”). How we run innovation meetings can use a change, too. We actually should ideate individually then The personal quantified self-movement uses fitness-tracking wearables and mobile apps to improve fitness and health. mix ideas as a group; this is due to the cognitive bias caused by grounding. Again, this can shorten meetings and make The quantified worker will have continuous mood, focus, interaction, and productivity feedback. InTrends , we talked everyone more productive. about hybrid intelligence providing specialized AI assistants that boost performance. The quantified-self for work gives employees tools for optimizing their personal performance. This is not part of a performance evaluation system. This is much more like the private relationship between an executive coach and an executive. This is a digital personal coach that helps you will all aspects of your job.

32 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 33 IDEO has neighborhoods with all the tools of creation out in the open, eliminating the friction to action. IDEO encourages employees to sit in different locations to mix ideas. Co-working spaces have a lot of these characteristics and the added Re-Balancing Work benefit of providing access to knowledgeable people you didn’t have to hire; co-working spaces have become the modern communes of creativity. Many of these spaces offer access to specialty tools, provide training and mentoring, provide Individual Work startup funding, and help with prototyping. Co-working spaces, much like universities, have a concentration of different Use Flow for skillsets in a small space. That is a recipe for intersectional innovation. Timebox 5X the productivity 5x

32 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 33 “Asking questions Many companies like BetterWorks and Sociometric Solutions are entering the quantified OPTIMIZE FLOW work movement. Sociometric is wearables meets big data for work (Moneyball for work). “The secret of life is enjoying the passage of time.” may make you feel It has a badge holder that understands posture and movement (for engagement), conversation – James Taylor foolish at first, but flow, speaking time, voice tone, speed of speech, cortisol level based on tone of voice, speech volume, etc. Each badge contains a microphone, infrared, accelerometer, and a Bluetooth We are just beginning to understand and realize the productivity gains that can be achieved really it prevents you from flow. One study of executives concludes if we could stay in a flow state, we can increase connection. This opt-in system (90 percent opt in on average) allows Sociometric to understand HACKING THE GENOME OF from being foolish the physical interactions of workers. By recommending a few changes in how the social our effectiveness by 500 percent; this means that 20 percent more flow doubles creativity/ FLOW: JAMIE WHEAL AT productivity. Perhaps a truer measure of productivity is how much time you spend in flow, TEDXVENICEBEACH forever.” network of the company worked, Sociometric was able to increase sales 11 percent in a business that had flat growth. Understanding individual and group performance can lead not how much time you spend at work. This is the difference between workaholics (busy – Guy Bieber to significant returns. people) and high -performance employees (productive people). So what exactly is this magic focused yet defocused state? Flow is an optimal state of consciousness where we feel our best and perform our best. FREE COGNITIVE BANDWIDTH We place a tremendous mental workload on information workers (infotoxificated). The The book “The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance” first step to helping improve performance is freeing up cognitive bandwidth. The book “Understand the identified the brain physiology of flow. In the brain, flow is characterized by alpha (8 to 12 hz) “The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload” brings together and beta (12 to 28hz) brainwaves (this is similar to the brain waves caused by meditation). subtle distinction the learnings of neuroscience to explain how we can free cognitive bandwidth. Our default Systems like Muse can help us understand when we are in flow state and train us how to between work state is mind wandering, and we need this to let our subconscious mind work. Our focus get there more often. During flow, the brain is flooded with chemicals norepinephrine (focus), on task state is managed by the central director. The central director gets fatigued by making (activity you have dopamine (focus), endorphins, anandamide (lateral thinking), and serotonin. decisions regardless of whether they are important. The attention filter is what looks for to do) and play stimulus that might be important to us (our name being called in a crowded room or the sound of a predator coming up behind us). The last element in this model is the attention The flow genome project is dedicated to understanding the flow state andtriggers to get (activity you want switch, which causes us to focus on the new input (like the tiger coming up behind us). us into that state. Psychologically, a flow state turns off our inner critic (fear of failure or to do). These can be imperfection) and our sense of time (lose track of time). The part of the brain responsible for these functions actually shuts off during flow (dorsolateral frontal cortex). The U.S. Army manipulated.” To free up cognitive bandwidth, reduce decision fatigue (central director), reduce interruptions has enabled sharpshooters to obtain proficiencytwice as fast by magnetically shutting off (attention filter), and reduce expensive context switching (attention switch).Presidents – Guy Bieber this part of the brain during training. The inner critic drives anxiety and depression. Anxiety reduce the number of unimportant decisions to enable better decision making. Fewer decisions is the voice in your head worried about the future. Depression is the voice in your head and simplicity will drive systems that are more productive. Turning off notifications will reduce that worries about the past. Presence happens when those two voices stop talking to each interruptions. And creating environments where unwanted interruptions are avoided will other. The flow genome project has actually identified 17 triggers by studying extreme reduce expensive context switching. sports enthusiasts (who are particularly good at hacking flow, for survival purposes). The performance gains are so significant from flow that we expect this to be a major area of So we talked about cutting meetings in half. We have a similar problem with email. We spend focus for the quantified-self-at-work movement. 30 percent of our time on email, and half of that is wasted. That means we should read half as much and send half as much email. Easier said than done. Practically everyone is trying Manage Your Energy, Not Your Time to reinvent email to get the connectivity without the distraction; Microsoft Outlook for iOS even has a focused inbox capability that clears away clutter. Helping people filter email by We have discussed how to free cognitive bandwidth and the benefits of the flow state. subject line is helpful. Prefixes like “FYI:” or “REQ:” give people an idea of what the email is Exceptional productivity is driven by managing your energy, not your time. The Draugiem about. The book “The 4-Hour Work Week” recommends batching email to read twice a day. Group did a study that recommended the optimal work/break ratio is 52 minutes of work Part of the issue with email is it generates a lot of context switching because emails come in and a 17-minute break (other systems like the Pomodoro Technique suggest similar breaks). about every random topic imaginable. Email has moved from being an excellent communication The Draugiem study wasn’t about the average employee; it was the top 10 percent of tool to being a source of job dissatisfaction. “You’ve got mail” is something we would like to productive employees. They didn’t work longer hours. In fact, with breaks, they worked fewer hear less these days. Similar problems exist with the messaging and social tools becoming than eight hours a day. A study from Stanford shows productivity sharply drops at 50 hours popular in the workplace. a week and drops so dramatically after 55 hours that there is no benefit to working longer. Studies show our energy drops most around 2 p.m., which may be the best time to take a walk. Interestingly, Charles Dickens typically worked from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.

In the “The 4-Hour Workweek,” author Timothy Ferriss describes ways to increase productivity. He talks about the Pareto principle, which states 20 percent of the work has 80 percent of the results. Ferriss also talks about Parkinson’s Law, which states work expands to fit the

34 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 35 “Asking questions Many companies like BetterWorks and Sociometric Solutions are entering the quantified OPTIMIZE FLOW work movement. Sociometric is wearables meets big data for work (Moneyball for work). “The secret of life is enjoying the passage of time.” may make you feel It has a badge holder that understands posture and movement (for engagement), conversation – James Taylor foolish at first, but flow, speaking time, voice tone, speed of speech, cortisol level based on tone of voice, speech volume, etc. Each badge contains a microphone, infrared, accelerometer, and a Bluetooth We are just beginning to understand and realize the productivity gains that can be achieved really it prevents you from flow. One study of executives concludes if we could stay in a flow state, we can increase connection. This opt-in system (90 percent opt in on average) allows Sociometric to understand HACKING THE GENOME OF from being foolish the physical interactions of workers. By recommending a few changes in how the social our effectiveness by 500 percent; this means that 20 percent more flow doubles creativity/ FLOW: JAMIE WHEAL AT productivity. Perhaps a truer measure of productivity is how much time you spend in flow, TEDXVENICEBEACH forever.” network of the company worked, Sociometric was able to increase sales 11 percent in a business that had flat growth. Understanding individual and group performance can lead not how much time you spend at work. This is the difference between workaholics (busy – Guy Bieber to significant returns. people) and high -performance employees (productive people). So what exactly is this magic focused yet defocused state? Flow is an optimal state of consciousness where we feel our best and perform our best. FREE COGNITIVE BANDWIDTH We place a tremendous mental workload on information workers (infotoxificated). The The book “The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance” first step to helping improve performance is freeing up cognitive bandwidth. The book “Understand the identified the brain physiology of flow. In the brain, flow is characterized by alpha (8 to 12 hz) “The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload” brings together and beta (12 to 28hz) brainwaves (this is similar to the brain waves caused by meditation). subtle distinction the learnings of neuroscience to explain how we can free cognitive bandwidth. Our default Systems like Muse can help us understand when we are in flow state and train us how to between work state is mind wandering, and we need this to let our subconscious mind work. Our focus get there more often. During flow, the brain is flooded with chemicals norepinephrine (focus), on task state is managed by the central director. The central director gets fatigued by making (activity you have dopamine (focus), endorphins, anandamide (lateral thinking), and serotonin. decisions regardless of whether they are important. The attention filter is what looks for to do) and play stimulus that might be important to us (our name being called in a crowded room or the sound of a predator coming up behind us). The last element in this model is the attention The flow genome project is dedicated to understanding the flow state andtriggers to get (activity you want switch, which causes us to focus on the new input (like the tiger coming up behind us). us into that state. Psychologically, a flow state turns off our inner critic (fear of failure or to do). These can be imperfection) and our sense of time (lose track of time). The part of the brain responsible for these functions actually shuts off during flow (dorsolateral frontal cortex). The U.S. Army manipulated.” To free up cognitive bandwidth, reduce decision fatigue (central director), reduce interruptions has enabled sharpshooters to obtain proficiencytwice as fast by magnetically shutting off (attention filter), and reduce expensive context switching (attention switch).Presidents – Guy Bieber this part of the brain during training. The inner critic drives anxiety and depression. Anxiety reduce the number of unimportant decisions to enable better decision making. Fewer decisions is the voice in your head worried about the future. Depression is the voice in your head and simplicity will drive systems that are more productive. Turning off notifications will reduce that worries about the past. Presence happens when those two voices stop talking to each interruptions. And creating environments where unwanted interruptions are avoided will other. The flow genome project has actually identified 17 triggers by studying extreme reduce expensive context switching. sports enthusiasts (who are particularly good at hacking flow, for survival purposes). The performance gains are so significant from flow that we expect this to be a major area of So we talked about cutting meetings in half. We have a similar problem with email. We spend focus for the quantified-self-at-work movement. 30 percent of our time on email, and half of that is wasted. That means we should read half as much and send half as much email. Easier said than done. Practically everyone is trying Manage Your Energy, Not Your Time to reinvent email to get the connectivity without the distraction; Microsoft Outlook for iOS even has a focused inbox capability that clears away clutter. Helping people filter email by We have discussed how to free cognitive bandwidth and the benefits of the flow state. subject line is helpful. Prefixes like “FYI:” or “REQ:” give people an idea of what the email is Exceptional productivity is driven by managing your energy, not your time. The Draugiem about. The book “The 4-Hour Work Week” recommends batching email to read twice a day. Group did a study that recommended the optimal work/break ratio is 52 minutes of work Part of the issue with email is it generates a lot of context switching because emails come in and a 17-minute break (other systems like the Pomodoro Technique suggest similar breaks). about every random topic imaginable. Email has moved from being an excellent communication The Draugiem study wasn’t about the average employee; it was the top 10 percent of tool to being a source of job dissatisfaction. “You’ve got mail” is something we would like to productive employees. They didn’t work longer hours. In fact, with breaks, they worked fewer hear less these days. Similar problems exist with the messaging and social tools becoming than eight hours a day. A study from Stanford shows productivity sharply drops at 50 hours popular in the workplace. a week and drops so dramatically after 55 hours that there is no benefit to working longer. Studies show our energy drops most around 2 p.m., which may be the best time to take a walk. Interestingly, Charles Dickens typically worked from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.

34 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 35 allotted time. So be sure you’re working on the right stuff, and time box efforts. Another study BJ Fogg (director of the Persuasive Technology Lab at Stanford) suggests that small changes found three common traits between creatives: are the secret to success in behavior change. A key challenge with learning can be motivation. He suggests do the smallest thing possible (requiring the least motivation), tie it trigger off •• Briskness: “Quick responding to stimuli, high tempo of activity, and the ability to switch an existing behavior (like floss a tooth after you brush), and immediately celebrate success between actions.” (in a small way, like saying, “awesome”). This overcomes motivational and triggering issues to create new behaviors. RISE OF SUPERMAN •• Endurance: “An ability to behave efficiently and appropriately in spite of intense external HANDS ON WITH “SPRITZ” SPEED READING TECHNOLOGY stimulation or regardless of the necessity to pay attention during prolonged periods of time.” “Losing track of time •• Activity: “The generalized tendency to initiate numerous activities that lead to, or provoke, We believe feedback systems like Muse will allow content to flow at you at your fastest most rich external stimulation; it is conceived as the basic regulator of the need for stimulation.” comfortable rate. This includes faster playback for audio (audible and podcasts support this) (flow) is as close Studies also suggest you should take those vacations. An Air New Zealand study showed a and visual data (2 times the speed doubles the amount of data you can consume). Technologies as we come to 82 percent performance increase in employees after a vacation. Managing your energy and like Spritz allow you to speed read as fast as the best speed readers on the planet. In a immortality.” not your time will increase your productivity. world of massive information growth, doubling or more your consumption speed is a tremendous advantage. – Guy Bieber PROCESS/LEARN FASTER Part of the quantified self will be getting just in time learning in the fastest most efficient way Hybrid Intelligence at Work - Meet Your Robotic Co-worker possible. In the Trends section on the “Middle Class Renaissance,” we discussed alternatives As we mentioned in the Trends section, hybrid intelligence (domain specialized AI and people PARETO PRINCIPLE – to four-year degrees that provide proficiency in three to six months. We expect adaptive working together) and robotics are going to create massive productivity gains in the workplace. learning technology that understands our needs and can deliver content as fast as we can Being able to work successfully with AI may be as important as being able to work well with 20% consume it. In “Outliers: The Story of Success,” Malcom Gladwell claimed it takes 10,000 hours other human co-workers. We believe this AI will integrate to us through wearables and OF THE WORK GETS to be an expert in a field. Often we don’t need to be experts; we simply need to be proficient. augmented reality displays. Magic Leap and Microsoft HoloLens are expected to come to Josh Koshman suggests we can become passable at anything in just 20 hours in four steps: market in the next three years. Generally, software will be designed for much larger display 80% services and more natural interaction. This more immersive technology will provide many of OF THE RESULTS. 1. Deconstruct the skill to the parts that are most important. the missing cues of actually being somewhere. More immediate and life-size reactions. More 2. Learn enough to self-correct and self-edit as you practice. virtualized surfaces to share. This will dramatically change remote-work software. This increased workspace and AI will help us effectively cope with more information. This AI 3. Remove barriers to practice. will aid in automation of tasks and give individuals more control over automation. 4. Practice for at least 20 hours (break through the frustration barrier).

Practice anything for 20 minutes a day for 60 days and you will acquire a new skill. Daily practice is important because it helps form new habits. It also helps to practice 20 minutes Changing Spaces before bedtime because you preload your subconscious with something to work on while The nature of workspaces is changing. Low utilization and high costs are the main drivers you sleep. of this change. It’s not just offices that are having problems; libraries are undergoing a similar transformation (everything from loaning tools to becoming more of a co-working space; becoming places of buzz and doing instead of silence). We see spaces transformed Timothy Ferriss gives similar advice in the book “The 4-Hour Chef: The Simple Path to into more activity-oriented spaces with reconfigurable areas for personal space, Cooking Like a Pro, Learning Anything, and Living the Good Life”. He recommends the community space, meeting space, and project space. People are working not only at the DiSSS method: traditional office but at home, co-working spaces, startup accelerators, and hackerspaces. We continue to extend these physical spaces into virtual spaces. 1. Deconstruction - What are the minimal learnable units, the LEGO blocks, I should be starting with? CO-LOCATE WHEN IT MATTERS 2. Selection - Which 20 percent of blocks should I focus on for 80 percent of the outcomes? The effects of co-location matter. In one study, people who were co-located were 20 percent more likely to communicate virtually. These effects break down quickly by team size and 3. Sequencing - In what order should I learn those blocks.? distance. It is often the time we spend together outside a work environment that grows relationships (critical to high-performing teams). Things like having meals together or happy hours allow people to relax and unleash creative teamwork. 4. Stakes - How do I create stakes, real consequences, and guarantee I follow the program?

36 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 37 allotted time. So be sure you’re working on the right stuff, and time box efforts. Another study BJ Fogg (director of the Persuasive Technology Lab at Stanford) suggests that small changes found three common traits between creatives: are the secret to success in behavior change. A key challenge with learning can be motivation. He suggests do the smallest thing possible (requiring the least motivation), tie it trigger off •• Briskness: “Quick responding to stimuli, high tempo of activity, and the ability to switch an existing behavior (like floss a tooth after you brush), and immediately celebrate success between actions.” (in a small way, like saying, “awesome”). This overcomes motivational and triggering issues to create new behaviors. RISE OF SUPERMAN •• Endurance: “An ability to behave efficiently and appropriately in spite of intense external HANDS ON WITH “SPRITZ” SPEED READING TECHNOLOGY stimulation or regardless of the necessity to pay attention during prolonged periods of time.” “Losing track of time •• Activity: “The generalized tendency to initiate numerous activities that lead to, or provoke, We believe feedback systems like Muse will allow content to flow at you at your fastest most rich external stimulation; it is conceived as the basic regulator of the need for stimulation.” comfortable rate. This includes faster playback for audio (audible and podcasts support this) (flow) is as close Studies also suggest you should take those vacations. An Air New Zealand study showed a and visual data (2 times the speed doubles the amount of data you can consume). Technologies as we come to 82 percent performance increase in employees after a vacation. Managing your energy and like Spritz allow you to speed read as fast as the best speed readers on the planet. In a immortality.” not your time will increase your productivity. world of massive information growth, doubling or more your consumption speed is a tremendous advantage. – Guy Bieber PROCESS/LEARN FASTER Part of the quantified self will be getting just in time learning in the fastest most efficient way Hybrid Intelligence at Work - Meet Your Robotic Co-worker possible. In the Trends section on the “Middle Class Renaissance,” we discussed alternatives As we mentioned in the Trends section, hybrid intelligence (domain specialized AI and people PARETO PRINCIPLE – to four-year degrees that provide proficiency in three to six months. We expect adaptive working together) and robotics are going to create massive productivity gains in the workplace. learning technology that understands our needs and can deliver content as fast as we can Being able to work successfully with AI may be as important as being able to work well with 20% consume it. In “Outliers: The Story of Success,” Malcom Gladwell claimed it takes 10,000 hours other human co-workers. We believe this AI will integrate to us through wearables and OF THE WORK GETS to be an expert in a field. Often we don’t need to be experts; we simply need to be proficient. augmented reality displays. Magic Leap and Microsoft HoloLens are expected to come to Josh Koshman suggests we can become passable at anything in just 20 hours in four steps: market in the next three years. Generally, software will be designed for much larger display 80% services and more natural interaction. This more immersive technology will provide many of OF THE RESULTS. 1. Deconstruct the skill to the parts that are most important. the missing cues of actually being somewhere. More immediate and life-size reactions. More 2. Learn enough to self-correct and self-edit as you practice. virtualized surfaces to share. This will dramatically change remote-work software. This increased workspace and AI will help us effectively cope with more information. This AI 3. Remove barriers to practice. will aid in automation of tasks and give individuals more control over automation. 4. Practice for at least 20 hours (break through the frustration barrier).

36 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 37 MAKE SPACE RECONFIGURABLE lighting and ambient noise to create the illusion of being elsewhere. These spaces trigger “In 30 years’ time, as casual social interaction and put us at ease. Co-working spaces have the added benefit of Great workspaces can be reconfigured to suit any need. It starts by eliminating as many cords as possible through use of technology moves wireless Internet and replacing desk phones with mobile phones. Power outlets are spread throughout the space, creating an environment of collaboration and learning between people in different companies. sometimes with pull-down outlets from the ceiling (eventually wireless power delivery may even get rid of this). All the Co-working spaces are a collaborative, pay it forward, barter economy where you can access forward even further, furniture, desks, chairs, and equipment are designed to be moved. It’s all pretty much on wheels. Maya Design has several talent without hiring. people are going to portable whiteboard systems that allow people to increase their collaboration space on demand. A reconfigurable look back and wonder workspace helps employees customize a space to meet their needs. It allows facility space to be used more efficiently and NO REASON TO LEAVE increases employee satisfaction. why offices ever Many companies design their workplace so there are fewer reasons to leave. They do this by providing things like great food or having a variety of restaurants nearby. The amount existed.” ACCOMMODATE/PROMOTE ACTIVITY of perks vary from free house cleaning (Evernote), to spa service (BodyLogicMD), to – Richard Branson The best spaces reduce the distance between thought and action. They inspire innovation, encourage collaboration, and laundry services (JibJab), etc. accelerate learning. Maker spaces like TechShop surround people with the tools of creation. If you are curious how something works, people are more than happy to show you what they are working on, and if you want more in-depth MAXIMIZE USE OF SPATIAL MEMORY understanding of a tool suite, you can sign up for a quick class. Knowledge and help are a minimal effort away. It’s hard for us to remember a phone number but easy for us to remember where thousands of objects are in our homes. We have long learned to externalize our memory using space. If it’s a place where people do a lot of computer work, monitors are plentiful. If it’s a place like IDEO where they do a lot of Whether this is writing things on whiteboards and paper or have a keyhook so there is a place physical prototyping, there are materials for doing that throughout the workspace (design studios like IDEO are known for to go where we can always find our keys.The memory competition champions have long this). For a startup space, you might include things like customer interview kits, rapid video production tools, how-to- known this and leverage spatial memory to memorize thousands of things. Many studies guides for various activities like market testing or rapid prototyping, and resources for getting help on everything from IDEO, AN INNOVATIVE DESIGN have concluded that using two monitors (extending our spatial working place) increases COMPANY – 60 MINUTES business development to design. It is about removing all the friction between thinking and doing. our productivity up to 74 percent. Space makes us more efficient information processors.

Co-Locate on Demand Google Ventures has war rooms where information surrounds employees. General Dynamics Mimic Spaces We Love Re-Conﬁgurable proposal centers have special wall mounts that allow the whole proposal to be placed on the walls so people can walk along gthe wall and comment. You can physically see the proposal progress all around you. Maya Design has kivas designed after ancient Indian community centers. These kivas are oval rooms covered floor to ceiling with whiteboards and with moveable chairs throughout. These spaces are covered with information, stickies, and posters. We are seeing a movement to virtual spaces that enable this kind of information sharing with things like augmented reality, touch screens, and projection mapping.

Changing Spaces SOFTWARE-DEFINED WORKSPACES Spaces that allow us to maximize our spatial memory help us cope with more information

No Reason To Leave Maximize Spatial Memory and significantly improve performance. Technologies like Microsoft HoloLens and Occulus Rift are poised to maximize our spatial distribution of information. These systems will also allow us to instantly remap our whole visual space to the task at hand. No need to deal with photos and cleaning of whiteboards. This will be a key technology that allows virtual spaces to outperform physical ones. We are just at the start of making virtual spaces

Virtual Space Accommodate Activity Illustration by Guy Bieber operate more like physical spaces.

MIMIC SPACES WE LOVE Other technologies like Gridspace make virtual spaces more beneficial. Gridspace will Activity-based offices contain a variety of spaces for every activity and mood. We see spaces that mimic spaces we love transcribe meetings by speaker. Eventually we will reach a tipping point where hybrid work outside of work including coffee shops, bars, living rooms, hotel lobbies, restaurants, and nature (one study finds a co-located or distributed will benefit so much from virtualization that location will be irrelevant. 30 percent performance increase after a nature break). These types of spaces are becoming common at companies like It may just be a smart phone we carry that allows us turn a monitor into a desktop or a headset Google, Autodesk’s Pier 9 Workshop, Maya Design, IDEO, and Pixar. The Apple store, arguably one of the most successful into virtual reality. WIRED believes smart phones have gotten powerful enough that in less retail spaces in the world, was modeled after a concierge experience in a high-end hotel. These spaces include the right than two years they could replace our other computers. A 2013 survey by the Center for

38 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 39 MAKE SPACE RECONFIGURABLE lighting and ambient noise to create the illusion of being elsewhere. These spaces trigger “In 30 years’ time, as casual social interaction and put us at ease. Co-working spaces have the added benefit of Great workspaces can be reconfigured to suit any need. It starts by eliminating as many cords as possible through use of technology moves wireless Internet and replacing desk phones with mobile phones. Power outlets are spread throughout the space, creating an environment of collaboration and learning between people in different companies. sometimes with pull-down outlets from the ceiling (eventually wireless power delivery may even get rid of this). All the Co-working spaces are a collaborative, pay it forward, barter economy where you can access forward even further, furniture, desks, chairs, and equipment are designed to be moved. It’s all pretty much on wheels. Maya Design has several talent without hiring. people are going to portable whiteboard systems that allow people to increase their collaboration space on demand. A reconfigurable look back and wonder workspace helps employees customize a space to meet their needs. It allows facility space to be used more efficiently and NO REASON TO LEAVE increases employee satisfaction. why offices ever Many companies design their workplace so there are fewer reasons to leave. They do this by providing things like great food or having a variety of restaurants nearby. The amount existed.” ACCOMMODATE/PROMOTE ACTIVITY of perks vary from free house cleaning (Evernote), to spa service (BodyLogicMD), to – Richard Branson The best spaces reduce the distance between thought and action. They inspire innovation, encourage collaboration, and laundry services (JibJab), etc. accelerate learning. Maker spaces like TechShop surround people with the tools of creation. If you are curious how something works, people are more than happy to show you what they are working on, and if you want more in-depth MAXIMIZE USE OF SPATIAL MEMORY understanding of a tool suite, you can sign up for a quick class. Knowledge and help are a minimal effort away. It’s hard for us to remember a phone number but easy for us to remember where thousands of objects are in our homes. We have long learned to externalize our memory using space. If it’s a place where people do a lot of computer work, monitors are plentiful. If it’s a place like IDEO where they do a lot of Whether this is writing things on whiteboards and paper or have a keyhook so there is a place physical prototyping, there are materials for doing that throughout the workspace (design studios like IDEO are known for to go where we can always find our keys.The memory competition champions have long this). For a startup space, you might include things like customer interview kits, rapid video production tools, how-to- known this and leverage spatial memory to memorize thousands of things. Many studies guides for various activities like market testing or rapid prototyping, and resources for getting help on everything from IDEO, AN INNOVATIVE DESIGN have concluded that using two monitors (extending our spatial working place) increases COMPANY – 60 MINUTES business development to design. It is about removing all the friction between thinking and doing. our productivity up to 74 percent. Space makes us more efficient information processors.

Changing Spaces SOFTWARE-DEFINED WORKSPACES Spaces that allow us to maximize our spatial memory help us cope with more information

Virtual Space Accommodate Activity Illustration by Guy Bieber operate more like physical spaces.

38 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 39 Creative Leadership found that the typical smartphone -carrying professional interacts with work an average of 72 hours a week, almost doubling our work week. This could be good or bad depending on how much you love your job.

Companies like Accenture regard physical workspaces as strategically irrelevant (they have 260,000 employees), and 40 percent of IBM’s workforce doesn’t have an office. The book Remote:“ Office Not Required” calls out rules for remote teams:

1. Thou shalt overlap work times. 2. Use collaboration tools with audio, video, and screen sharing. 3. Everything is out in the open. 4. Use a chat program to create a virtual water cooler.

We are starting to see specialized bundled tool suites that support the software-defined workspace such asAtlassian which provides a suite of tools for software development.

Talent Matching - I Will Create My Own Job Thanks As Fast Company calls it, the gig economy is growing. Fifty-three million Americans, or 34 percent of the workforce, already hold freelance jobs. Generation Z intends to create their own jobs and work independently. The good news is there are a lot more resources to help them do that today. We are creating a world where we better align what we were meant to do with what we are compelled to do to make a living; we are creating the purpose economy.

Companies are so concerned with employee fit that they are paying employees to leave if they don’t work out Riot( Games pays $25,000 for people to quit). In the book “The Digital Renaissance of Work: Delivering Digital Workplaces Fit for the Future,” authors Paul Miller and Elizabeth Marsh believe we are reaching a first in human history: plentiful work we enjoy. They liken the change to the simulation of the middle class that happened during the Renaissance.

40 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 41 Creative Leadership found that the typical smartphone -carrying professional interacts with work an average of 72 hours a week, almost doubling our work week. This could be good or bad depending on how much you love your job.

1. Thou shalt overlap work times. 2. Use collaboration tools with audio, video, and screen sharing. 3. Everything is out in the open. 4. Use a chat program to create a virtual water cooler.

We are starting to see specialized bundled tool suites that support the software-defined workspace such asAtlassian which provides a suite of tools for software development.

40 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 41 04

Innovation Special Feature

This year’s landscape theme is “Creating Your Future,” so we decided to do a special feature on innovation. Companies that continually reinvent themselves through innovation are the ones that persist and grow. 14% of percent of product launches create or recreate markets, these generate 38% of revenue and 61% of the profits (Pareto’s Law in action). Stated differently blue ocean efforts offer the real potential

“Innovation by its very nature is an act of reduction. for future profitable growth. Innovation selects from all of the world’s possibilities to create value.”

Guy Bieber

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Seeking Unicorns, Moonshots, and Crazy Ones

-- Creating Innovation Gravity

-- Intra-preneurial Advantages / Pitfalls

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 43 04

Innovation Special Feature

“Innovation by its very nature is an act of reduction. for future profitable growth. Innovation selects from all of the world’s possibilities to create value.”

Guy Bieber

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Seeking Unicorns, Moonshots, and Crazy Ones

-- Creating Innovation Gravity

-- Intra-preneurial Advantages / Pitfalls

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 43 In the age of surprise you can be the source of disruption or the disrupted, its a simple choice. Google X’s Astro Teller even talks about his organization as a moonshot factory. Google X We are in an age where individuals have access to the knowledge of mankind, the tools of has progressed the driverless car to create Google Street View, Project Loon to provide creation, and the platform to project those creations into the world rapidly at scale. For Internet access to the rest of the world, and is brewing something up in robotics. DARPA corporations this is a world where a culture of continuous innovation is more than a nice was originally founded in the U.S. to avoid being technically surprised by other countries (in have, it is a survival essential. 1958 as a response to Sputnik). Their track record and techniques are legendary: they have invented everything from the Internet to GPS in Space to the MEMS sensors in your phones to humanoid robotics. DARPA does this magic on a budget that is smaller than many large Change happens Seeking Unicorns, Moonshots, and Crazy Ones individual corporations (including Microsoft, IBM, Intel, and HP). We will distill the secrets of these amazing moonshot factories. with or without We aren’t going for conventional knowledge here. If you are doing Agile (going fast), you. Adaptation Design Thinking (creating great experiences), and Lean Startup (creating new businesses) THE CRAZY ONES is a choice. you have made some great investments. Get ready to learn from the people that get unusual results consistently. Though there are no silver bullets for innovation, Mark Templeton (the “The hardest thing is figuring out what to put every bit of energy into; the next hardest thing CEO of Citrix) has often lauded the value of role models. There are some great role models is putting every bit of your energy into it.” out there to learn from. Together let’s seek unicorns, moonshots, and the crazy ones. – Guy Bieber

Some companies are just serial innovators. As Apple so elegantly put it in their Crazy Ones UNICORN FACTORIES advertisement, “...the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are THE CRAZY ONES the ones who do.” We will learn from companies like Apple and leaders like Steve Jobs who “Customers can’t tell you what they need. Customers think incrementally.” reinvented numerous markets (personal computing, music, movies, mobility), P&G that – Guy Kawasaki created 25 $1 billion brands, and 3M, which reinvents its future every year. We will also look at great design companies like IDEO and Maya Design that continuously help their customers “A person’s success A unicorn is a company that goes from zero to $1B valuation. That can be done today with less than $100M in revenue. Though Google has had 3 groups of employees spin out unicorns, create amazing products. We will take inspiration from outliers from Elon Musk, Richard Branson, in life can usually no one matches PayPal with the generation of 8 unicorns. Paypal achieved 3.5x the results Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Regina Dugan, Astro Teller, Guy Kawasaki, Timothy Ferriss, and even be measured by with 1/100 of people of Google. Paypal is a unicorn factory from which we can learn some John Cleese. So let’s create some innovation gravity in our companies. valuable lessons. In Peter Thiel’s (cofounder of Paypal) book Zero to One he describes what the number of Creating Innovation Gravity he has learned about creating unicorns. But there is a list of questions Peter Thiel thinks uncomfortable every company must answer: Planets would not form without gravity. Without planets, life would be very unlikely. Gravity conversations he is a necessary but insufficient pre-condition for life (among many other things). Innovation is 1. The Engineering Question: Do you have a breakthrough technology (10x)? or she is willing critical to the life of a corporation. Can we learn how to create the conditions and forces 2. The Timing Question: Is your timing right? that enable innovation? Can we create innovation gravity? We have boiled down the best to have.” 3. The Monopoly Question: Do you have something advice from role models of unicorns, moonshots, and the crazy ones into 10 principles to – Timothy Ferriss no-one else has? help you create innovation gravity in your companies. 4. The People Question: Do you have the right people? 5. The Distribution Question: Can you sell and market your stuff? 6. The Durability Question: Will you be still around Innovation Gravity Top 10 in 10 years? 7. The Secret Question: Do you know something nobody else does? 1 Many viable independent tries We will distill the amazing approaches that make these outliers possible. • Self-Selected 1% to 4% 2 Stories not ideas • Troublemakers • Crazy Secret • Small to go Big 3 Teams not ideas • Painful Constraint • Friends • Good Questions Burn the ships to embrace risk • Break Assumptions • Prototype, Don’t Pitch 4 • Seek Intersections MOONSHOT FACTORIES • Accelerated Hacking 5 Learning, not failure • Seek Perspectives • Iterate with Customers • Avoid Competition Moonshots are named after the ridiculously audacious goal of leaving the planet and landing Time-boxed Experiments 6 Think bigger • Disruption Bias • AARRR Metrics • a man on the moon. Prize-based research has driven down the time and cost of creating • Adoption / Value 7 Data-driven value creation before Revenue Pareto’s Timebox a moonshot. Throughout this section, we will pull examples from two moonshot factories: 8 Scr-happiness Law 80% Open innovation 20% EFFORT RESULT Google X and DARPA. • Creative Abrasion 9 • Creative Agility 10 Foster collective genius • Creative Resolution

Illustration by Guy Bieber

44 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 45 In the age of surprise you can be the source of disruption or the disrupted, its a simple choice. Google X’s Astro Teller even talks about his organization as a moonshot factory. Google X We are in an age where individuals have access to the knowledge of mankind, the tools of has progressed the driverless car to create Google Street View, Project Loon to provide creation, and the platform to project those creations into the world rapidly at scale. For Internet access to the rest of the world, and is brewing something up in robotics. DARPA corporations this is a world where a culture of continuous innovation is more than a nice was originally founded in the U.S. to avoid being technically surprised by other countries (in have, it is a survival essential. 1958 as a response to Sputnik). Their track record and techniques are legendary: they have invented everything from the Internet to GPS in Space to the MEMS sensors in your phones to humanoid robotics. DARPA does this magic on a budget that is smaller than many large Change happens Seeking Unicorns, Moonshots, and Crazy Ones individual corporations (including Microsoft, IBM, Intel, and HP). We will distill the secrets of these amazing moonshot factories. with or without We aren’t going for conventional knowledge here. If you are doing Agile (going fast), you. Adaptation Design Thinking (creating great experiences), and Lean Startup (creating new businesses) THE CRAZY ONES is a choice. you have made some great investments. Get ready to learn from the people that get unusual results consistently. Though there are no silver bullets for innovation, Mark Templeton (the “The hardest thing is figuring out what to put every bit of energy into; the next hardest thing CEO of Citrix) has often lauded the value of role models. There are some great role models is putting every bit of your energy into it.” out there to learn from. Together let’s seek unicorns, moonshots, and the crazy ones. – Guy Bieber

Illustration by Guy Bieber

44 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 45 Apple evaluates thousands of ideas before letting one go through. Google X asks engineers to come with 10 different ideas for every value proposition story. They are all trying to increase the number of tries early on when it is cheap (before your build it). Steve Jobs would always have his design group come with three prototypes. According to his biography, before his cancer biopsy, the doctor asked him to put on a mask on, and Jobs famously told the doctor to bring three prototypes; let’s blame that one on the medication. Ideas are cheaper than prototypes; prototypes are cheaper than products. Good iteration leverages these principles.

2. STORIES, NOT IDEAS Google X forces engineers to put their ideas in terms of stories that portray the value propositions of customers. We are by nature storytellers. Stories provide a very portable way to share ideas.

3. TEAMS, NOT IDEAS Guy Kawasaki talks about how venture capitalists bet on teams, not on ideas. They know that most successful startups will pivot after contact with customers. This is just the emergent nature of innovation. So it is far more important to have a great team than it is to have a business plan with “the idea.” This includes the right skill mix, which often minimally includes technology, business, and design. GUY KAWASAKI : THE TOP 10 “What is important 1. INNOVATION BY NUMBERS: MANY VIABLE, INDEPENDENT TRIES MISTAKES OF ENTREPRENEURS

about human kind is “If you want to increase your success rate, double your failure rate.” Self-Selection we create stuff —so – Thomas Watson Jr. “Don’t ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and go do it.” “I’m convinced much so that we are Speed makes mistakes less costly. Many viable tries make success more likely. Innovation – Howard Thurman that about half of re-creating ourselves.” and, in particular, disruptive innovation require many viable independent tries. VCs and prize-based research enable many independent teams to try to succeed (typically in parallel). The first rule of innovation is to absolutely love what you do. As Richard Branson says, “If what separates – Guy Bieber The truth is the faster and more frequently you fail, the sooner and more dramatically you you don’t enjoy it, don’t do it.” Steve Jobs made a similar comment in his commencement the successful speech at Stanford, “The only way to do great work is to love what you do...” After all, time succeed. You have to be uncomfortable and feel foolish the majority of the time. Innovation entrepreneurs from can be a very uncomfortable place. So what are the numbers of innovation. is our one irreplaceable asset. You’re going to need that passion to get you through the hard times. One mistake that corporations make in putting together innovation teams is the non-successful •• 20 percent of startups succeed that they assign people; that is, they don’t let them self-select. People need to be able to ones is pure self-select what they are passionate about. If you can reach outside your research organization •• 30 percent of acquisitions succeed to the entire company or even outside your company to the entire world, you might will perseverance.” •• 6 percent (20 percent X 30 percent) chance of going from a startup to being acquired to have a better chance of crowd sourcing the right people. – Steve Jobs generating enough revenue to warrant the acquisition

So to build a disruptive new business in a corporation, you need to fail 94 percent of the Trouble Makers and Misfits time. Astro Teller would claim the moonshot number is more like failing 99 percent of the time. That is a counter-intuitive thing for a companies that are designed to reduce risk and “They are not people who require the social approval of their peers to go forward with an idea, and that’s a very rare trait. Very few people are truly disagreeable, but if you look at meet schedules (which is perfectly reasonable for incremental innovation). That is why Astro the really great disruptive innovators, they’re often vilified at a certain point.” tries to determine the market clearing price (the incentive needed to get people to stop – Malcolm Gladwell working on something) for bad and good innovations. They are looking to make room for the great disruptive innovations; good just doesn’t cut it. At Google X, teams are allowed Malcolm Gladwell, Steve Jobs, and Peter Thiel observed something about people who to work on what they are passionate about, and they decide when it is time to give up; this change the world and it is best quoted from the Apple “The Crazy Ones” ad: keeps leadership or group cognitive biases from killing everything (if you think about it, the sum of everyone’s biases would naturally kill everything). Astor highlights the need for strong leadership top cover; after all, you have to convince your boss that to succeed you need to fail 96 percent of the time.

46 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 47 Apple evaluates thousands of ideas before letting one go through. Google X asks engineers to come with 10 different ideas for every value proposition story. They are all trying to increase the number of tries early on when it is cheap (before your build it). Steve Jobs would always have his design group come with three prototypes. According to his biography, before his cancer biopsy, the doctor asked him to put on a mask on, and Jobs famously told the doctor to bring three prototypes; let’s blame that one on the medication. Ideas are cheaper than prototypes; prototypes are cheaper than products. Good iteration leverages these principles.

46 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 47 “Here’s to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round 5. They have mutual respect for each other and strong camaraderie. Peter Thiel says to hire friends or people you could be friends with. This is the band of brothers you will go into pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently—they’re not fond battle with. The team carries a common brand whether a T-shirt, hoodie, or something else. It should be an open workplace that feels like home; pets welcome. of rules… You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the Great teams typically co-locate, at least mentally (Wordpress has been a very successful only thing you can’t do is ignore them because they change things...they push distributed team; though, others like Google, Yahoo, and most startups find physical co-location the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we to be the easiest way to create mental co-location). see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can 4. BURN YOUR SHIPS / EMBRACE RISK change the world, are the ones who do.” “Writing a novel [or learning] is like driving at night in the fog. You can only see as far as Perhaps this disregard for what exists is a pre-condition for creating something that doesn’t. your headlights but can make the whole trip that way.” – E.L. Doctorow “At a certain point, Get Small to Have Big Impact Innovating is like starting a trip when you don’t know the destination. You have to step to REGINA DUGAN: FROM MACH- innovation is not A central point of the book “The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks the edge of the unknown and then go beyond. Startups and DARPA create conditions 20 GLIDER TO HYMMINGBIRD Created the Digital Revolution” is that innovation is a team sport. Great inventors have fallen about creativity where there is asymmetric risk; that is, conditions where the upside is big and the downside into obscurity because they could not connect with the people to bring their ideas to the is insignificant. If a startup succeeds, everyone can get rich very quickly; if it fails, they had anymore; it is about world. Small autonomous teams can create magic. Google X likes small teams with big nothing to begin with and can just go try the next thing. DARPA boldly asks the question, manipulating the ideas (and Astro Teller would say your ideas can never be big enough). “What would you do today if you knew you couldn’t fail?” DARPA essentially takes the Satisficing—not negative impacts of failure out of the equation by not having program managers around complex systems of In the book “Zero to One,” Peter Thiel defines a startup as: “The largest group of people that for more than four years and making relatively small investments in disruptive things with pursuing the best people and the world can create something truly new. The largest endeavour you can control.” Studies suggest self-selected talented teams. In fact, DARPA fails 85 percent to 90 percent of the time. option, but a good to allow innovation the ideal team size is somewhere between five and10 people. Most startup advisors will Google celebrates failures and encourages teams to stop activities that are only “good.” enough option discourage hiring until it really hurts not to have another person. This is both to control They need to free up people for greatness. to materialize.” burn rate and control the size of the team. Advisors also say that hiring is the most important – Anonymous –Guy Bieber job. A bad hire can cause you six months of lost productivity and drag down your team. The core problem of innovation is emotional. We fear the terrible embarrassment of failing, This could easily destroy a startup. being wrong, or looking foolish. Fear is one of the biggest dream killers. Timothy Ferriss says, “A person’s success in life can usually be measured by the number of uncomfortable Great Teams conversations he or she is willing to have.” In 1519, Capt. Hernan Cortes burned his ships we he landed in Veracruz so that his troops had nowhere to go but forward. Removing the Great teams have excitement and speed. Vantage Leadership Consulting has reviewed 40 years fear of failure is the equivalent of burning the ships, and it enables people to embrace the of research on team performance and says high-performing teams tend to have these five risk to do amazing things. If you are doing something really big, expect to fail most of the aspects in common (similar points are found at Google, PayPal, and Tesla): “For innovation … time and burn your ships.

don’t follow the 1. They are committed to the vision and achieving extraordinary goals. It takes pressure to create diamonds (Elon Musk). Not a lot of time is devoted to thinking about the future; 5. LEARNING, NOT FAILURE - ITERATIVE TIME-BOXED EXPERIMENTATION money. Follow there is a very specific mission to do one thing with a maniacal focus (Peter Thiel). It is the excitement.” a vision that should still be able to convince the 20th employee to join the company. Google would add this vision should be easily understandable and focused around the “Like sculpture, innovation does not look like much until you near the end.” – Tim O’Reilly user. – Guy Bieber 2. They share accountability for results. Also have clearly defined roles to eliminate unnecessary conflict (Peter Thiel). Given the fact we will fail a lot, we must turn that failure into learning. In fact, let’s not use 3. Their communication is transparent. It is not about agreeing; it is about everyone being the word failure anymore. Let’s focus on learning. The thing you should pay the most heard. Google would also add be data driven. attention to is your rate of learning. If you are learning faster than your competition, you 4. They resolve conflictconstructively . It is not consensus; it is confrontational with will soon overcome them and create a differentiating lead that makes it hard for them to informed debate (Peter Thiel) recover (the magic of compounding). The most basic part of matter that we know of today is the Higgs boson particle. The most basic unit of innovation is time-boxed experimentation —particularly, experiments that iterate with customers rapidly. Facebook’s motto is move fast and break things. Let’s dig a little deeper on this concept.

48 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 49 “Here’s to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round 5. They have mutual respect for each other and strong camaraderie. Peter Thiel says to hire friends or people you could be friends with. This is the band of brothers you will go into pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently—they’re not fond battle with. The team carries a common brand whether a T-shirt, hoodie, or something else. It should be an open workplace that feels like home; pets welcome. of rules… You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the Great teams typically co-locate, at least mentally (Wordpress has been a very successful only thing you can’t do is ignore them because they change things...they push distributed team; though, others like Google, Yahoo, and most startups find physical co-location the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we to be the easiest way to create mental co-location). see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can 4. BURN YOUR SHIPS / EMBRACE RISK change the world, are the ones who do.” “Writing a novel [or learning] is like driving at night in the fog. You can only see as far as Perhaps this disregard for what exists is a pre-condition for creating something that doesn’t. your headlights but can make the whole trip that way.” – E.L. Doctorow “At a certain point, Get Small to Have Big Impact Innovating is like starting a trip when you don’t know the destination. You have to step to REGINA DUGAN: FROM MACH- innovation is not A central point of the book “The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks the edge of the unknown and then go beyond. Startups and DARPA create conditions 20 GLIDER TO HYMMINGBIRD Created the Digital Revolution” is that innovation is a team sport. Great inventors have fallen about creativity where there is asymmetric risk; that is, conditions where the upside is big and the downside into obscurity because they could not connect with the people to bring their ideas to the is insignificant. If a startup succeeds, everyone can get rich very quickly; if it fails, they had anymore; it is about world. Small autonomous teams can create magic. Google X likes small teams with big nothing to begin with and can just go try the next thing. DARPA boldly asks the question, manipulating the ideas (and Astro Teller would say your ideas can never be big enough). “What would you do today if you knew you couldn’t fail?” DARPA essentially takes the Satisficing—not negative impacts of failure out of the equation by not having program managers around complex systems of In the book “Zero to One,” Peter Thiel defines a startup as: “The largest group of people that for more than four years and making relatively small investments in disruptive things with pursuing the best people and the world can create something truly new. The largest endeavour you can control.” Studies suggest self-selected talented teams. In fact, DARPA fails 85 percent to 90 percent of the time. option, but a good to allow innovation the ideal team size is somewhere between five and10 people. Most startup advisors will Google celebrates failures and encourages teams to stop activities that are only “good.” enough option discourage hiring until it really hurts not to have another person. This is both to control They need to free up people for greatness. to materialize.” burn rate and control the size of the team. Advisors also say that hiring is the most important – Anonymous –Guy Bieber job. A bad hire can cause you six months of lost productivity and drag down your team. The core problem of innovation is emotional. We fear the terrible embarrassment of failing, This could easily destroy a startup. being wrong, or looking foolish. Fear is one of the biggest dream killers. Timothy Ferriss says, “A person’s success in life can usually be measured by the number of uncomfortable Great Teams conversations he or she is willing to have.” In 1519, Capt. Hernan Cortes burned his ships we he landed in Veracruz so that his troops had nowhere to go but forward. Removing the Great teams have excitement and speed. Vantage Leadership Consulting has reviewed 40 years fear of failure is the equivalent of burning the ships, and it enables people to embrace the of research on team performance and says high-performing teams tend to have these five risk to do amazing things. If you are doing something really big, expect to fail most of the aspects in common (similar points are found at Google, PayPal, and Tesla): “For innovation … time and burn your ships.

48 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 49 Questions Are the Answer •• Day 4: Prototype – Build something quick and dirty that can be shown to users. “Sometimes the question is harder than the answer.” •• Day 5: Validate – Show the prototype to real humans (in other words, people outside – Elon Musk your company) and learn what works and what doesn’t work.

The best way to learn something no one has before is to learn to ask great questions. The Regardless of place or process, rapid experimentation is the key to innovating. curious mind drives learning. Asking good questions will expose you to lots of different perspectives and help you overcome your cognitive biases. Innovation is about the right Iterate With Customers problem and one most often evolves to right. Timothy Ferriss thinks in terms of questions and actions —once you understand something, figure out what your next action is. This should “To innovate, ask good questions, break some assumptions, get your intent right, and then experiment as quickly as possible.” involve talking to a lot of potential customers (a theme in common with lean startup). – Guy Bieber “Tweaking or copying Lean startup teaches us to interact with customers frequently to create market fit for products. Prototype; Don’t Pitch Demand generation is one of the hardest problems in creating a business. Customer interaction has limited returns “The three deaths: Publish or die. Prototype or die. Deploy or die.” helps us crack this; it helps us by thinking backwards from distribution. Kickstarter, which (horizontal progress); – Guy Bieber provides crowdsourced capital for great ideas, may be more about testing demand generation you need new things than capital creation. In Kickstarter, people are willing to fund your idea before it has been Guy Kawasaki often gives the advice to startups to prototype, not to pitch. You have to be “The product is built. What a delightful way to meet your first customers and understand if you are building (vertical progress).” able to show something that works, a minimum viable product, so people can understand something people really want. absolutely central the value. Astro Teller often shares a story of a pottery class to portray the value of doing. A – Peter Thiel

not the strategy.” pottery class is divided into two groups. The first group is told their final pottery submission 6 THINK BIGGER at the end of the semester would be 90 percent of their grade. The second group is told – David Sacks the weight of the clay they fire during the semester will determine 90 percent of their “Whatever you can do or believe you can do it. Begin it. Boldness has genius, power, and magic.” grade. The second group produces significantly better pottery at the end of the semester – Astro Teller because they learned by doing. Astro Teller, the captain of moonshots at Google, said, “You can’t think big enough.” If you are going after a world-changing disruption (or merely a unicorn), you have to think really Accelerated Hacking big. This is moonshot thinking, which is trying to find the 1 out of 100 ideas that will change “The problem is, most companies today are run to minimize risk, not maximize freedom and speed.” the world. If you solve such a big problem, money won’t be your problem, it will find you. Venture capitalists only care about the really big ideas because they seek the companies – Eric Schmidt, Alan Eagle, Jonathan Rosenberg “In disruption land, they think have a chance to pay for their whole fund (and then some). So what are some We have started building spaces throughout the world where magic happens faster than ways we can start to think bigger? everything is stupid anywhere else. There are magical places like Shenzen, China, where you can design and until it instantly isn’t. manufacture hardware in weeks, not months. Places like TechShop where individuals can Your Crazy Secret get access to the tools and knowledge of the industrial revolution for a small monthly fee. Then it is brilliant.”

The makers movement is occurring in places like Local Motors (where you can build or print “Innovation is not an idea problem. It’s a recognition problem” – Peter Thiel your own car), co-working spaces, and hackerspaces of every flavor (check out this one for – David Burkus hacking biology). If you want to see the magnitude of the maker movement, just attend one of the Maker Faires across the country. It is all about places that afford the freedom Peter Thiel says you need a secret: “A great company is a conspiracy to change the world. and speed to convert ideas into reality. Successful people find value in unusual places. For PayPal, this was the replacement of physical currency with virtual currency.” Astro Teller suggests one way to test your crazy Google design sprints are an interesting approach to accelerated hacking. Here is the process. secret: if 95 percent of the experts think your idea is stupid, but 5 percent think it is brilliant, you may have something. They suggest great endeavors start with the belief in a crazy •• Day 1: Understand – Dig into the design problem through research, competitive review, idea—one crazy enough that it makes you uncomfortable. and strategy exercises. •• Day 2: Diverge – Rapidly develop as many solutions as possible. •• Day 3: Decide – Choose the best ideas, and hammer out a user story.

50 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 51 Questions Are the Answer •• Day 4: Prototype – Build something quick and dirty that can be shown to users. “Sometimes the question is harder than the answer.” •• Day 5: Validate – Show the prototype to real humans (in other words, people outside – Elon Musk your company) and learn what works and what doesn’t work.

50 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 51 “Don’t worry about Your Painful Constraint Avoid Competition/Seek Monopoly “Achievements are rarely bigger than the dreams that precede them. Audacious goals bring people stealing an out our best. ” “If you’re not doing some things that are crazy, then you’re doing the wrong things.” idea. If it’s original, – Guy Bieber – Larry Page

you will have to Sometimes a painful constraint helps create magic. This is forced thinking in a box. After Peter Thiel, in his book “Zero to One,” says companies that want to persist should avoid all, innovation is the reduction of possibility to value. Whether Steve Jobs mandated for no competition and seek monopoly, “Be a Monopoly (proprietary technology, network effects, THE MYTHS OF CREATIVITY, ram it down their DAVID BURKUS stylus for the iPhone (driving the perfection of touch screen interfaces so easy a 1-year-old economies of scale, branding). Capitalism and Competition are opposing ideas.” Thiel also throats.” can use it), developing extremely cheap prosthetics for the masses (Gandhi engineering), says don’t disrupt; avoid as much competition as possible. He defines a monopoly by being – Howard H Aiken or building a completely electric car (Tesla), if it’s not upsetting, it’s incremental. 10 times better than anyone else in a market segment small enough you can dominate (a blue ocean strategy). Play to your strengths, and get the competition to play to their weaknesses. You want to reduce how much the world has to change to adopt your solutions. “Mankind’s long Break At Least One Commonly Held Assumption Then grow from that position of strength. Amazon dominated books, then CDs, and now dreams (flight, etc.) everything retail. You need a monopoly for a sustainable big business, and that starts with “If something is important enough, you should try, even if the probable outcome is failure.” your brand (something you have a monopoly over by definition). For most people, monopoly are seldom a surprise; – Elon Musk is a dirty word, so this is a very contrarian position to take. they start with a flurry You can’t break every assumption, but by definition, if you break none, you are taking of failures and then a known conventional position, not a disruptive one. Figuring out a great assumption Theil also takes the long view on growth; he observed technology companies have delayed are followed by long to break can set you of the path of disruption and potentially be your crazy secret. Elon value (10 to 15 years in the future). PayPal will generate most of its revenue in 2020. Being Musk changed the cost of space travel by breaking the assumption that rockets were not the first mover in a market doesn’t guarantee success; it is still pretty much a coin toss winners (last movers).” reusable. Every other expensive form of transportation is reusable (cars, trains, planes), but (47 percent of first movers fail). What matters is being the last mover in a market or rather – Anonymous NAVI RADJOU: CREATIVE not rockets. This was a key insight that helped him build another huge business. Being the last one standing. A business that has network effects is ideal to grow in a market. Apple PROBLEM-SOLVING IN THE able to break assumptions means you have to reject the status quo and take the position was not first to the music player or smartphone markets, but they were one of the last movers. FACE OF EXTREME LIMITS of the crazy ones.

Disruption Bias: 30 Percent Rule Create Intersections / Collect Perspectives “Diamonds are made under pressure. Elon Musk is a master diamond maker.” To be successful, you have to repeatedly reinvent yourself, your company, and your relationships. – Anonymous We thrive on change.

“A change in perspective is worth 80 IQ points.” Some companies intentionally create a disruption bias; they set the expectation that – Alan Kay innovation is the rule, not the exception. They make it very public to their employees that they value and crave continuous innovation. 3M has what they call the 30 percent rule. This Innovation happens in the intersections of ideas and disciplines. This was as true in the states that 30 percent of revenue has to come from products introduced in the last year. Renaissance as it is now on the Internet. When you are searching for your crazy secret, Amazingly, they have continued to achieve that audacious goal. there are two approaches: collect perspectives and create intersections. Fast Company even suggests you keep a surprise journal to keep track of your insights (a technique used 7. DATA-DRIVEN VALUE CREATION in creating this document). There are even search engines that allow you to search by “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” metaphor. – Splunk

The metrics for later-stage public companies are well known, but how do we measure The malleability of your perspectives may be an indicator of innovative intelligence. To be companies early on? David Bland recommends pirate metrics (AARRR) for early startups: innovative, collect as many unique perspectives as possible (insights) to open the aperture of your cognitive biases. Even then, still be weary of your cognitive biases. Astro Teller recommends •• Acquisition – new customers (aware) you swim out of your element—work in an area you are not an expert in. Being naive is sometimes an advantage because you don’t hold the assumptions common to the field. •• Activation – becoming a user (hopeful) Next, create as many intersections of ideas as possible. Forcing perspective changes by looking •• Retention – continued use (satisfied) at problem through the ideas of a different field is often helpful. Elon Musk took an idea from •• Referral – think net promoter score (passionate, great indicator of growth) rocketry and applied it to electric cars to help make a vehicle light enough to have a feasible •• Revenues – cash is good (willing to pay for it) range. He applied the light, strong aluminium construction techniques of rockets to cars. That enabled the initial Tesla to be light enough to carry the batteries it needed for an acceptable range of travel. You have to train yourself to look for intersections and collect perspectives in the form of unusual insights.

52 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 53 “Don’t worry about Your Painful Constraint Avoid Competition/Seek Monopoly “Achievements are rarely bigger than the dreams that precede them. Audacious goals bring people stealing an out our best. ” “If you’re not doing some things that are crazy, then you’re doing the wrong things.” idea. If it’s original, – Guy Bieber – Larry Page

52 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 53 “Data without But how do you measure even before you have an idea for a company? It is really about how to be ultra efficient (scrappy) and follow their dreams (happy). His book The“ 4-Hour your rate of learning during the company ideation phase. Here are some metrics we are trying Chef” teaches people how to learn anything and quickly become an expert. Let’s look at a analytics is useless. at Citrix: few principles of Scr-happiness. Analytics without action is wasted. •• Stories – Number of value propositions you are evaluating. •• Magic happens outside your comfort zone. Timothy Ferriss goes as far to say your success is directly proportional to your ability to deal with discomfort. Action without •• Experiments – Number of experiments you are performing. -- So get comfortable with discomfort. •• User Interactions – Number of interactions you have with potential customers. measurement •• 80 percent of the benefit comes from 20 percent of the effort. - Pareto’s Law Google X has a team dedicated to evaluating if crazy ideas are possible. If an idea gets through is blind. ” -- So focus on the 20 percent that has the impact. this team, then people need to self-select to move it forward. Remember, they are looking •• All that matters is what works or doesn’t work. Don’t get stuck in fads. Look for forces, – Guy Bieber for great ideas, not merely good ones. not fads. Apple reversed itself on closed versus open because it worked. - Guy Kawasaki •• Work expands to fill the available time. - Parkinson’s Law Focus on Value Creation and Growth - Adoption Before Revenue -- So time-box your efforts. “Some things need to •• Have fun with your customers. - Richard Branson “In the old world, you dedicated 30 percent of your time to building a great service and be believed to be seen. 70 percent shouting about it. In the new world, that inverts.” •• Practice playful creation - John Cleese – Jeff Bezos You have to believe as -- Create a time and space oasis for creation. “Starting a great company is neither easy nor impossible.” -- Have time, humor, and confidence. an entrepreneur. ” – Peter Thiel MOONSHOT THINKING WITH -- Innovation and humor happen when you connect unrelated things. – Guy Kawasaki ASTRO TELLER A trick shared by Facebook, Google, and many others is to focus on adoption before revenue (eventually you must get to revenue). It is really about answering the question “Are you building 9. OPEN INNOVATION -> DON’T GET STUCK something people really value?” (relieves pains, provides gains, and an experience that makes Real entrepreneurs ship. them feel something; people remember how we make them feel). Not knowing what you “Don’t worry, be crappy. When you are a curve-jumper, it’s OK to have elements of crappiness.”

want is the mother of all messups. Not knowing what customers want is the father. The – Guy Kawasaki trick is knowing it before they do because most of the time disruptive markets tend to be things people don’t know they want yet. You can tell you are stuck when things start taking a long time. Open innovation is a great way to get unstuck and increase your speed to market. P&G has an enormous record of hits, with more than 25 $1 billion brands. They don’t do this all internally. They have been pushing To do this, you have to ship often. Iteration with customers allows you to adjust your product a connect and develop philosophy to solve problems they get stuck on. They utilize Innocentive, alignment with the market. The net promoter score is great for predicting customer retention ASTRO TELLER ON INNOVATION which allows them to publish competitions to solve tricky problems. Often the problems and growth. You want innovation gravity toward simplicity, speed, and people. In particular, are solved by people who are experts in other domains. Organizations like SwitchPitch we should pay attention to what we require of our customers; instead we should inspire allow big corporations to pitch startups on problems they want to solve. Many companies them. 3scale has a bias toward new customers in that they build for their new prospects, not host their own open competitions to solve problems and go faster. These all have the their existing customers. Ultimately, if your product isn’t used, it won’t be around for long. impact of opening up the talent pool available to solve a problem.

8. SCR-HAPPINESS 10. FOSTER COLLECTIVE GENIUS - ZEN INNOVATION MANAGEMENT “When you have fun first, extraordinary is easy.” “A+ players don’t like to be micromanaged.” – Guy Bieber – Guy Kawasaki Scr-happiness is best personified by Timothy Ferriss, who is a master at figuring out how to do the impossible quickly. He won a national karate championship with two weeks of As you move up the chain, it’s not about having the great ideas; it is about fostering them training; he has won ballroom dancing championships without formal training; he built in others. As Linda Hill puts it in her TED Talk on “How to manage for collective creativity,” and automated successful companies with no employees; he rapidly learned many languages, “Our task is to create the space where everyone’s slices of genius can be unleashed and put and achieved many other unusual results. His book “The 4-Hour Workweek” teaches people together into works of collective genius.” Creative teams should be nurtured from the bottom

54 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 55 “Data without But how do you measure even before you have an idea for a company? It is really about how to be ultra efficient (scrappy) and follow their dreams (happy). His book The“ 4-Hour your rate of learning during the company ideation phase. Here are some metrics we are trying Chef” teaches people how to learn anything and quickly become an expert. Let’s look at a analytics is useless. at Citrix: few principles of Scr-happiness. Analytics without action is wasted. •• Stories – Number of value propositions you are evaluating. •• Magic happens outside your comfort zone. Timothy Ferriss goes as far to say your success is directly proportional to your ability to deal with discomfort. Action without •• Experiments – Number of experiments you are performing. -- So get comfortable with discomfort. •• User Interactions – Number of interactions you have with potential customers. measurement •• 80 percent of the benefit comes from 20 percent of the effort. - Pareto’s Law Google X has a team dedicated to evaluating if crazy ideas are possible. If an idea gets through is blind. ” -- So focus on the 20 percent that has the impact. this team, then people need to self-select to move it forward. Remember, they are looking •• All that matters is what works or doesn’t work. Don’t get stuck in fads. Look for forces, – Guy Bieber for great ideas, not merely good ones. not fads. Apple reversed itself on closed versus open because it worked. - Guy Kawasaki •• Work expands to fill the available time. - Parkinson’s Law Focus on Value Creation and Growth - Adoption Before Revenue -- So time-box your efforts. “Some things need to •• Have fun with your customers. - Richard Branson “In the old world, you dedicated 30 percent of your time to building a great service and be believed to be seen. 70 percent shouting about it. In the new world, that inverts.” •• Practice playful creation - John Cleese – Jeff Bezos You have to believe as -- Create a time and space oasis for creation. “Starting a great company is neither easy nor impossible.” -- Have time, humor, and confidence. an entrepreneur. ” – Peter Thiel MOONSHOT THINKING WITH -- Innovation and humor happen when you connect unrelated things. – Guy Kawasaki ASTRO TELLER A trick shared by Facebook, Google, and many others is to focus on adoption before revenue (eventually you must get to revenue). It is really about answering the question “Are you building 9. OPEN INNOVATION -> DON’T GET STUCK something people really value?” (relieves pains, provides gains, and an experience that makes Real entrepreneurs ship. them feel something; people remember how we make them feel). Not knowing what you “Don’t worry, be crappy. When you are a curve-jumper, it’s OK to have elements of crappiness.”

54 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 55 up as opposed to have a vision pushed on them from the top down. Pixar and Google X •• Access to existing sales channels. operate this way. Hill saw three common elements: -- We are going to bug our existing customers. They want to believe you aren’t a one-trick pony. They are not buying a product. They are buying your ability to keep 1. Creative Abrasion – Diversity and conflict are required. making products they want. 2. Creative Agility – Act as opposed to plan. Experiment. •• Support organization access. LINDA HILL - HOW TO MANAGE •• Option for acquisition to go faster. FOR COLLECTIVE CREATIVITY 3. Creative Resolution – Combine opposable positions to create something new. •• Access to corporate technologies Hill further explains how this is a different from how traditional product teams are managed; it is an almost zen approach. Innovation leaders need to create the space where Some common pitfalls that intra-preneurs face: people are willing and able to do the hard work of innovation. A space where they want to belong and want to co-create the future. Innovation leaders are social architects who help •• Missing venture capitalist role and not treating innovation efforts like startups. set the stage, not perform on it. •• Lack of small team autonomy (this tends to be a prerequisite for speed) •• Missing incentive alignment 5 MENTAL DEBUGS FOR SUCCESS & GLOBAL -- This affects the ability to attract entrepreneurs. PROSPERITY BY INVENTOR & Intra-preneurial Advantages and Pitfalls GOOGLE GENIUS, TOM CHI For existing companies, there are three kinds of disruptive innovation models: building -- Companies like Cisco, Maya Design, and IDEO all use spinouts and spin-ins to better align incentives. companies (internal startups, spinouts/spin-ins, and open innovation), buying companies, or a hybrid approach. Often companies don’t treat their innovation efforts like startups. •• Lack of team self-selection (attracting risk takers instead of risk reducers) These innovation investment strategies have vastly different investment profiles. •• Missing validation by customer adoption and revenue •• Avoiding failure and hence learning. Buying a company has a big front-end cost and typically a two-year window to break even. -- Often the things that keep the company safe don’t allow the appropriate risk. Building a company has a low front-end cost and a higher backend cost. Much like having •• Focus on meeting quarterly numbers over long-term investment—lacking an an asset allocation in financial investing, one needs an innovation asset allocation. Google innovation asset allocation. invests 70 percent in its core businesses, 20 percent in adjacencies, and 10 percent in crazy •• Often research groups don’t control their channel to market. exploration of new things. There are some unique advantages of being in an existing company. -- This lack of market interaction can kill a startup.

None of these things are impossible in an existing company, but they require a distinct cultural shift to succeed.

56 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 57 up as opposed to have a vision pushed on them from the top down. Pixar and Google X •• Access to existing sales channels. operate this way. Hill saw three common elements: -- We are going to bug our existing customers. They want to believe you aren’t a one-trick pony. They are not buying a product. They are buying your ability to keep 1. Creative Abrasion – Diversity and conflict are required. making products they want. 2. Creative Agility – Act as opposed to plan. Experiment. •• Support organization access. LINDA HILL - HOW TO MANAGE •• Option for acquisition to go faster. FOR COLLECTIVE CREATIVITY 3. Creative Resolution – Combine opposable positions to create something new. •• Access to corporate technologies Hill further explains how this is a different from how traditional product teams are managed; it is an almost zen approach. Innovation leaders need to create the space where Some common pitfalls that intra-preneurs face: people are willing and able to do the hard work of innovation. A space where they want to belong and want to co-create the future. Innovation leaders are social architects who help •• Missing venture capitalist role and not treating innovation efforts like startups. set the stage, not perform on it. •• Lack of small team autonomy (this tends to be a prerequisite for speed) •• Missing incentive alignment 5 MENTAL DEBUGS FOR SUCCESS & GLOBAL -- This affects the ability to attract entrepreneurs. PROSPERITY BY INVENTOR & Intra-preneurial Advantages and Pitfalls GOOGLE GENIUS, TOM CHI For existing companies, there are three kinds of disruptive innovation models: building -- Companies like Cisco, Maya Design, and IDEO all use spinouts and spin-ins to better align incentives. companies (internal startups, spinouts/spin-ins, and open innovation), buying companies, or a hybrid approach. Often companies don’t treat their innovation efforts like startups. •• Lack of team self-selection (attracting risk takers instead of risk reducers) These innovation investment strategies have vastly different investment profiles. •• Missing validation by customer adoption and revenue •• Avoiding failure and hence learning. Buying a company has a big front-end cost and typically a two-year window to break even. -- Often the things that keep the company safe don’t allow the appropriate risk. Building a company has a low front-end cost and a higher backend cost. Much like having •• Focus on meeting quarterly numbers over long-term investment—lacking an an asset allocation in financial investing, one needs an innovation asset allocation. Google innovation asset allocation. invests 70 percent in its core businesses, 20 percent in adjacencies, and 10 percent in crazy •• Often research groups don’t control their channel to market. exploration of new things. There are some unique advantages of being in an existing company. -- This lack of market interaction can kill a startup.

None of these things are impossible in an existing company, but they require a distinct cultural shift to succeed.

56 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 57 05 Internet of Things (IoT) Special Feature

At the peak of any hype cycle, shiny technology obscures value. The Internet of Things is no exception. Companies from Cisco to GE are making big predictions and bets on the IoT market. Part of getting over the “peak of inflated expectations” is converting hype into value. The core value propositions are easy to articulate for IoT: efficiency gains (costs savings + time savings + risk management), productivity gains, and enhanced human experiences. The transition happens when we “You can opt out of Google, but you can’t opt out of the real world.” quit talking about the technology

- Jade Meskill and talk about what it does for us (Steve Jobs was a master of that; although, he liked to talk about how pretty it was, too). IN THIS CHAPTER

-- What Smart Things Can Learn from Dumb Things -- The World is the Interface / The Best UI is no UI

-- The Physical World Comes Online - Billions of -- Wireless and Low Power Heterogeneous Things -- Privacy Challenges -- Location Location Location

-- Integrate Everything

-- The End of Data Entry and the Need for Data Reduction

-- Biggest Expansion of IT Ever and the Decentralization of Computing

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 59 05 Internet of Things (IoT) Special Feature

- Jade Meskill and talk about what it does for us (Steve Jobs was a master of that; although, he liked to talk about how pretty it was, too). IN THIS CHAPTER

-- What Smart Things Can Learn from Dumb Things -- The World is the Interface / The Best UI is no UI

-- The Physical World Comes Online - Billions of -- Wireless and Low Power Heterogeneous Things -- Privacy Challenges -- Location Location Location

-- Integrate Everything

-- The End of Data Entry and the Need for Data Reduction

-- Biggest Expansion of IT Ever and the Decentralization of Computing

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 59 3. Interaction – Had we started with computing that was cheap, powerful, and wirelessly connected, we would have interacted with computing in vastly different and more natural ways. The iPad is fairly easy for a 2-year-old to use because it has physics that a 2-year-old can understand: you touch things, and they move. You interact with dumb things by touching them and manipulating them. 4. Sharing – Most physical things are shared by mere presence. A friend in your car or watching your TV in your home. We all share physical spaces. 5. Maintenance – You maintain your things by cleaning them, perhaps getting them fixed, or replacing them when you notice they are broken.

So how can we translate this for the world of “smart” things:

1. Onboarding – Onboarding a smart thing should be the same as a dumb thing. Put it in a secure place. The difference is the smart thing is aware of the place it is in. The access OCTOBLU WIRELESS BUTTON points become the virtual gateway to the space.

2. Security – Secure the place not the thing. The thing is secure by being in a physical place. 3. Interaction – Utilize natural interaction via touch and for smarter device gesture/ vision/voice. 4. Sharing – Most devices will be shared. Sharing happens when a person is in a place. 5. Maintenance – Can we automatically detect when things are broken and automatically maintain them? Techniques like app stores with automatic updates have been doing this for a long time. Perhaps when a device is beyond supportability it gets isolated. ACCORDING TO GARTNER we will reach Vendors need a market reason to make their nonconnected things connected. A lot of them need help to do that. It is one Perhaps we can do better than dumb things here. thing to build a standalone piece of electronics, and it’s quite a different thing to network it and participate in an ecosystem. So maybe we can teach a new thing some old tricks. Whole consulting businesses will emerge to help companies get connected. Everything from helping with their value 25B proposition to dealing with networks, security, software updates, working with other things (long-term interoperability BILLION over the lifespan of the thing), developing experiences, etc. The Physical World Comes Online - Billions of Heterogeneous Things THINGS BY 2020 According to Gartner, we already have 5 billion things, and we will reach 25 billion things We see a very simple model for IoT that includes people, places, and things and the behaviors among these. In this section, by 2020. Because of the quantity of devices, types of devices, and vendors adding intelligence we will discuss the emerging IoT market and challenge assumptions. to existing devices, the digital layer of life is becoming more heterogeneous. As these numbers grow, traditional ways of managing things break down. Can vendors afford to host cloud services for every device? Can we afford the time to manage this explosion of devices? What Smart Things Can Learn From Dumb Things We tend to look at new things through the filters of old perspectives; IoT is no exception. Right now we view IoT through We have computers in our lives we rely on daily for critical functions. Our cars are a collection the perspective of mobile computing. We have to worry about the OS on our phones being up to date, about how to get of hundreds of computers, few of which utilize software updates (Teslas get regular software things on a network, loading apps, unlocking phones, etc. Perhaps we should look at IoT through a different perspective. updates), have accounts to log in to, and require an administrator. It is a mostly closed system Smart things could learn a lot from dumb things. (not including the On-Board Diagnostics port) that comes pre-integrated and fully instrumented. The sheer size of Internet of Things drives the need for more autonomy and interoperability. You plug in a “dumb” light bulb, flick the light switch, and then you’re all done. Right now, you plug in a “smart” light bulb, you configure a gateway to be on your wireless network, you pair the light bulb with the gateway, you load an app on your Connecting these devices is another challenge. We already have enough trouble connecting phone, you pair that app with the gateway, and then you’re all done. When you want to control that light again, be sure our mobile phones to Wi-Fi networks (which do you trust, how do you get through that the wall switch is on, unlock your phone, run the app, select the light, and turn it on…. If it is a secure light bulb, you might landing page and user agreements, and in some cases, how do you pay, etc.?). This model even have to create a user name and password. Which is the “smart,” and which is the “dumb” light bulb again? We believe does not work for devices that have no user interface (which will be the majority of devices). there are many principles that “smart” things can learn from “dumb” things. The cellular networks work more autonomously than Wi-Fi. We don’t worry about connecting to different cell towers or what protocol we connect with (3G, 4G, LTE, etc). It just happens with 1. Onboarding – You onboard a dumb thing by buying it and putting it where it is going to be used. vendors monitoring and keeping up the network. AT&T is making a big business out of 2. Security – You secure a dumb thing by putting it in a secure place: your home, your car, and your office. Possession in connecting cars to cellular networks. Part of the magic with cellular is the network is configured your secure place is nine-tenths of the law. You secure the place, not the thing. These places have locks and security at the point of sale through a SIM card. Currently we have a variety of ways to connect devices systems. You don’t have a password for every object in your house. that require a lot of work for consumers.

60 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 61 3. Interaction – Had we started with computing that was cheap, powerful, and wirelessly connected, we would have interacted with computing in vastly different and more natural ways. The iPad is fairly easy for a 2-year-old to use because it has physics that a 2-year-old can understand: you touch things, and they move. You interact with dumb things by touching them and manipulating them. 4. Sharing – Most physical things are shared by mere presence. A friend in your car or watching your TV in your home. We all share physical spaces. 5. Maintenance – You maintain your things by cleaning them, perhaps getting them fixed, or replacing them when you notice they are broken.

So how can we translate this for the world of “smart” things:

60 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 61 Location Location Location The End of Data Entry and the Need for Data Reduction When you embed things into the physical world, location becomes extremely important. It becomes a factor for security and learning. Events happening at a place and time have long The smart sensing and analytics available with IoT enable real-time world automation. “One insight is worth been used to index information in a military environment. Learning systems need this kind This sensing will eventually mean the end of data entry. Some of these control loops will 100 gigs of data.” of data to develop anticipatory interfaces. For instance, we can learn what applications need to execute at the edge to be real time. For example, you probably wouldn’t want to you run when you arrive at work and spin those resources up and down based on learning. rely on the cloud to control your anti-lock brakes. Another reason to push processing to – Anonymous the edge is to reduce data. We are dramatically increasing the sensors in the world, and many of these sensors create tremendous amounts of data. Cars today produce 1.3 GB In shared spaces, location means access. Location can also be a factor in authentication and per hour, and the driverless cars of tomorrow could create 1 GB per second. Cheap smart authorization. You may have to do less if you’re in a location like work or home to authenticate. mics and cameras generate a lot of data. A 1080p camera generates two megapixels per You may be authorized to control more things in a public space just because you are there. frame (at 60 frames per second, that’s 120 megapixels per second). To not overwhelm The chain of trust for things often starts with place. Location-based blacklisting and whitelisting the network and cloud storage, data reduction will need to happen at the edge. A camera of devices based on whether they are expected to be somewhere is the equivalent of keeping may be looking for something like people (send the identity or picture), license plates, bad apps out of an app store. For instance, installing a device like a smart display in a space movement, etc., and only send that data. A temperature sensor may only send significant GE INDUSTRIAL INTERNET REAL-TIME EARTH IMAGING and knowing it is still there (due to things like seeing it on a wireless network that has a changes. As the edge grows, it needs to be less chatty. We will be able to put processing particular range). The wireless access points help tie devices to locations, whether cell towers, where it is most effective in the device, gateways, and clouds. Wi-Fi access points, or Bluetooth based (besides IP addresses tied to GPS locations). The use of beacons helps to tie people to locations is being used for everything from home automation to retail and library experience enhancement. Closing Real-World Control Loops: Faster, Cheaper, and Safer Things and the Internet of Things also can benefit from visual locality. Anew system of Closing real-world control loops will make everything from construction sites to city operations microsatellites is providing real-time full-Earth imaging that is updated every 24 hours. This faster, cheaper, and safer. Geir Ramleth, former CIO of Bechtel (one of the world’s largest can be used to understand urban growth, aid farming, prevent unauthorized logging, the construction companies) and current Citrix Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, impacts of weather, etc. Location for IoT will continue to play a huge role. believes that IoT could help eliminate many on-site injuries. Cities can reduce energy with smart lights, reduce traffic with smart parking and routing, make public transportation more DAVID ROSE, efficient, and monitor air quality, sound pollution, and infrastructure health like( bridges). The “ENCHANTED OBJECTS” CARS TODAY GENERATE Integrate Everything list for making cities more liveable and efficient goes on. The Internet of Things is more about things working together than the things themselves. We have many non-networked things. We have been extending web pages to be programmatically 1.3GB There are some control loops that need to be local for safety and real time, but some data mashable web services for some time now. People have realized their services are more PER HOUR, does need to come together to be useful. For instance, Nest is giving utilities control over peak TOMORROW’S DRIVERLESS valuable when they can be easily connected with other services. This is a network multiplier air conditioning usage. They are coordinating many nest devices served on the same power CARS COULD GENERATE effect. With APIs for connected things, we are extending this mashability into the physical grid to enable levelling of power consumption by shifting when people’s AC goes on slightly. world. This integrate everything concept is a core tenant of the Octoblu IoT platform. 1GB These technologies further reduce the cost of automation of people, places, and things PER HOUR increasing operational efficiencies and delight. Biggest Expansion of IT Ever and the Decentralization of Computing The Internet of Things represents the biggest expansion of Information Technology ever One highly integrated space exists in our vehicles. In our automobiles, everything is integrated (which does not correlate to expanding IT departments). GE and the Industrial Internet (windows, sound, cooling, maps, seats, driving controls, etc.) into a cohesive whole. We expect Consortium refers to this as Operational Technology (OT). IoT is moving IT from the office physical spaces to be integrated more like cars. Lighting, cooling, sound, and controls will to the world for every industry from agriculture to trucking. Because these intelligent things be more cohesively integrated together. This will create smart spaces that save us time and are everywhere, it is making wireless networks as important a utility as electricity. We tend adapt to our activities and needs. to go through waves of centralized computing (mainframes, cloud) to decentralized computing (PCs, mobile, etc). Both continue to exist though the efficiencies of scale shift. In any case, The open integration of people, places, and things will also present an interoperability issue IoT represents the next wave of decentralized computing, which some refer to as fog over time. This may drive us to more intelligent systems that can adapt when changes occur computing. Just as nature gets resiliency from decentralization, computing is becoming automatically, perhaps based on advancements in things like natural language processing. more decentralized and resilient. This certainly is a core challenge for IoT.

62 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 63 Location Location Location The End of Data Entry and the Need for Data Reduction When you embed things into the physical world, location becomes extremely important. It becomes a factor for security and learning. Events happening at a place and time have long The smart sensing and analytics available with IoT enable real-time world automation. “One insight is worth been used to index information in a military environment. Learning systems need this kind This sensing will eventually mean the end of data entry. Some of these control loops will 100 gigs of data.” of data to develop anticipatory interfaces. For instance, we can learn what applications need to execute at the edge to be real time. For example, you probably wouldn’t want to you run when you arrive at work and spin those resources up and down based on learning. rely on the cloud to control your anti-lock brakes. Another reason to push processing to – Anonymous the edge is to reduce data. We are dramatically increasing the sensors in the world, and many of these sensors create tremendous amounts of data. Cars today produce 1.3 GB In shared spaces, location means access. Location can also be a factor in authentication and per hour, and the driverless cars of tomorrow could create 1 GB per second. Cheap smart authorization. You may have to do less if you’re in a location like work or home to authenticate. mics and cameras generate a lot of data. A 1080p camera generates two megapixels per You may be authorized to control more things in a public space just because you are there. frame (at 60 frames per second, that’s 120 megapixels per second). To not overwhelm The chain of trust for things often starts with place. Location-based blacklisting and whitelisting the network and cloud storage, data reduction will need to happen at the edge. A camera of devices based on whether they are expected to be somewhere is the equivalent of keeping may be looking for something like people (send the identity or picture), license plates, bad apps out of an app store. For instance, installing a device like a smart display in a space movement, etc., and only send that data. A temperature sensor may only send significant GE INDUSTRIAL INTERNET REAL-TIME EARTH IMAGING and knowing it is still there (due to things like seeing it on a wireless network that has a changes. As the edge grows, it needs to be less chatty. We will be able to put processing particular range). The wireless access points help tie devices to locations, whether cell towers, where it is most effective in the device, gateways, and clouds. Wi-Fi access points, or Bluetooth based (besides IP addresses tied to GPS locations). The use of beacons helps to tie people to locations is being used for everything from home automation to retail and library experience enhancement. Closing Real-World Control Loops: Faster, Cheaper, and Safer Things and the Internet of Things also can benefit from visual locality. Anew system of Closing real-world control loops will make everything from construction sites to city operations microsatellites is providing real-time full-Earth imaging that is updated every 24 hours. This faster, cheaper, and safer. Geir Ramleth, former CIO of Bechtel (one of the world’s largest can be used to understand urban growth, aid farming, prevent unauthorized logging, the construction companies) and current Citrix Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, impacts of weather, etc. Location for IoT will continue to play a huge role. believes that IoT could help eliminate many on-site injuries. Cities can reduce energy with smart lights, reduce traffic with smart parking and routing, make public transportation more DAVID ROSE, efficient, and monitor air quality, sound pollution, and infrastructure health like( bridges). The “ENCHANTED OBJECTS” CARS TODAY GENERATE Integrate Everything list for making cities more liveable and efficient goes on. The Internet of Things is more about things working together than the things themselves. We have many non-networked things. We have been extending web pages to be programmatically 1.3GB There are some control loops that need to be local for safety and real time, but some data mashable web services for some time now. People have realized their services are more PER HOUR, does need to come together to be useful. For instance, Nest is giving utilities control over peak TOMORROW’S DRIVERLESS valuable when they can be easily connected with other services. This is a network multiplier air conditioning usage. They are coordinating many nest devices served on the same power CARS COULD GENERATE effect. With APIs for connected things, we are extending this mashability into the physical grid to enable levelling of power consumption by shifting when people’s AC goes on slightly. world. This integrate everything concept is a core tenant of the Octoblu IoT platform. 1GB These technologies further reduce the cost of automation of people, places, and things PER HOUR increasing operational efficiencies and delight. Biggest Expansion of IT Ever and the Decentralization of Computing The Internet of Things represents the biggest expansion of Information Technology ever One highly integrated space exists in our vehicles. In our automobiles, everything is integrated (which does not correlate to expanding IT departments). GE and the Industrial Internet (windows, sound, cooling, maps, seats, driving controls, etc.) into a cohesive whole. We expect Consortium refers to this as Operational Technology (OT). IoT is moving IT from the office physical spaces to be integrated more like cars. Lighting, cooling, sound, and controls will to the world for every industry from agriculture to trucking. Because these intelligent things be more cohesively integrated together. This will create smart spaces that save us time and are everywhere, it is making wireless networks as important a utility as electricity. We tend adapt to our activities and needs. to go through waves of centralized computing (mainframes, cloud) to decentralized computing (PCs, mobile, etc). Both continue to exist though the efficiencies of scale shift. In any case, The open integration of people, places, and things will also present an interoperability issue IoT represents the next wave of decentralized computing, which some refer to as fog over time. This may drive us to more intelligent systems that can adapt when changes occur computing. Just as nature gets resiliency from decentralization, computing is becoming automatically, perhaps based on advancements in things like natural language processing. more decentralized and resilient. This certainly is a core challenge for IoT.

62 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 63 “You can opt out of The World Is the Interface / The Best UI Is No UI Google, but you can’t As the company Ninja Blocks states, sometimes the best user interface is no user interface. opt out of the real Its home-based hub, the NinjaSphere, provides lighting control just by sensing you moving world.” through the house. It can soften, bring up, and down lights as you move through your house at night, which is a bit of a magical experience. If we had started the computing revolution – Jade Meskill with smarter cameras, smarter mics, and accelerometers, perhaps our interfaces to computers would be entirely different and mostly invisible.

The model of interfacing to the world through a 4-inch piece of black glass will soon feel quaint to us (even a 27-inch piece of black glass will feel odd). The world truly is the interface. Environments will sense us, predict what we want to do, and most of the time get it right. When they don’t, we will simply tell them about it, and the behavior will change. Just like we expect water to magically turn on in public restrooms, we will expect the world to react and

IBM SMARTER PLANET customize behavior for us. Conference rooms will automatically start meetings, set lights, and configure audio. Classrooms will automatically share course materials with students, record and publish lectures, and integrate students outside and inside the classroom through hybrid learning. Our homes will know our preferences and automatically put on relaxing music and draw us outside at night with automated lighting and soundscapes.

Wireless and Low Power In the Trends section, we talked about the rise of no-power computing. Things like PsiKick, 12M which is a batteryless sensor chip for the IoT that runs on less than 1 percent of the power MILLION HOME AUTOMATION of comparable chips. We have broken the cord on networks, and next we will cut the power SYSTEMS IN THE US BY 2016 cord. This will happen through a combination of low-power chips, mined power, and wireless power. WiTricity has a system that can wirelessly transfer power up to 15 feet.

Privacy Challenges With the proliferation of smart things everywhere around us, there are some significant privacy challenges. One survey found that 80 percent of consumers have privacy concerns with IoT. Nonetheless, they are still installing home automation systems in their homes at a rapidly growing rate. From 2011 to 2012, home automation increased 50 percent, and it’s expected that there will be 12 million home automation systems by 2016 in the U.S.

The security of these devices is also a concern. One recent HP study found that 70 percent of IoT devices have security vulnerabilities. Many IoT devices have no way to take security upgrades. This includes issues of secure connectivity, encryption, authentication, and mitigation of known vulnerabilities. There is also the challenge of computing increasing at a rate that requires key lengths to be continually lengthened. We are also starting to see privacy legislation around IoT technology that will complicate regulatory compliance.

64 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 65 “You can opt out of The World Is the Interface / The Best UI Is No UI Google, but you can’t As the company Ninja Blocks states, sometimes the best user interface is no user interface. opt out of the real Its home-based hub, the NinjaSphere, provides lighting control just by sensing you moving world.” through the house. It can soften, bring up, and down lights as you move through your house at night, which is a bit of a magical experience. If we had started the computing revolution – Jade Meskill with smarter cameras, smarter mics, and accelerometers, perhaps our interfaces to computers would be entirely different and mostly invisible.

64 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 65 06

Retail and Finance

Paying for a taxi ride using your mobile phone is easier in Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, than it is in New York, thanks to Ecuador’s new Sistema de Dinero Electrónico (electronic money system). The new payment system kicked off in December 2014 by allowing qualifying users to set up accounts and began acting as a real means of transaction in February 2015. The country is part of a growing

“The future is already here; it is just not evenly distributed.” number of emerging economies

“Lorem ipsum illum eleifend suscipiantur ea -cum, William suas Gibson to embrace state-sponsored ubique cetero pri ut. Nihil fuisset dissentiet ea vel, populo qualisque no eam, in audire discere maluisset nec.” electronic currencies. With the

Lorem ipsum illum, Veri mollis legendos rising interest in various forms of electronic currencies such as Bitcoin, there is a renewed excitement from both countries IN THIS CHAPTER and companies looking to reimagine -- From Real to Virtual, the transformation of money how we think about money. -- The surprising persistence of cash

-- The emergence of cryptographic payment systems

-- Mobile Payments in emerging economies and the future of cashless economies

-- The growth in retail

-- Security threats in mobile commerce

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 67 06

Retail and Finance

“The future is already here; it is just not evenly distributed.” number of emerging economies

-- The emergence of cryptographic payment systems

-- Mobile Payments in emerging economies and the future of cashless economies

-- The growth in retail

-- Security threats in mobile commerce

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 67 From Real to Virtual, the transformation of money Mobile Payments in emerging economies and the future of cashless economies 17 MILLION KENYANS ARE NOW USING THE ALTERNATIVE In developed countries, money has been digital for sometime, but for most of the rest of the world, cash is still king. Eighty-five Yet mobile payments aren’t limited to emerging markets. Sweden may be the most cashless MOBILE MONEY SYSTEM SAFARICOM percent of consumer transactions are done with cold hard cash, with even 55 percent of transactions in the United States society on the planet, where even street panhandlers accept virtual payments. Four out of still using some form of bill or coin. With the ever-increasing adoption of mobile technologies, the days of traditional paper five purchases are now made electronically in Sweden, and going totally cash-free is the money may be coming to an end. At the center of this transformation is the smart phone, which has become the nexus for next step, said Niklas Arvidsson, associate professor of industrial dynamics at Sweden’s Royal people’s lives both online and offline. As mobile technology drives a shift in how we buy things, the revenue that the Institute of Technology. “Banks and merchants invested heavily in card payment systems in payments industry extracts could grow to more than $2 trillion a year by 2023, double the 2013 figure, the Boston Consulting the 1990s, and these days, consumers are used to it,” Arvidsson said. 17M Group predicts. Among the biggest opportunities may be that of digital currency.

The Sweden’s highest-profile cash-free campaigner is Abba’s Björn Ulvaeus. After his son The surprising persistence of cash was robbed several years ago, Ulvaeus became an evangelist for the electronic payment Estimated percentage of consumer payment transactions done with non cash methods, including credit cards, checks, and electronic payments. movement, claiming that cash was the primary cause of crime and that “all activity in the black economy requires cash.” Singapore 61%

Netherlands 60% The move toward a cashless society is championed by the United Nations Capital Development Fund’s Better Than Cash Alliance, which aims to accelerate the shift to electronic payments, United States 45% funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, MasterCard and Visa among others. The Germany 33% group focuses on raising awareness of the benefits of replacing physical cash with electronic

Japan 14% payments—particularly in a way that expands the benefits of financial inclusion and savings for the poor. Sweden may China 10% be the most Italy 6% The growth in retail Russia 4% cashless society For business, a cashless future may require the complete overhaul for how many in the retail India 2% space think about money. Anyone who has ever been to an Apple store will experience this on the planet Saudi Arabia 1% first hand with a point-of-sales experience in which Apple employees come to you. But the future may not even require a salesperson but instead a completely automated and Source Mastercard Advisors seamless experience where you simply take and get debited for those things you consume. VIA TECHNOLOGY REVIEW MONEY REPORT

Worldwide mobile app revenues 2011-2017 In series of interviews, Bill Gates extolled the value of digital But for Gates, Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily represent the Worldwide mobile app revenues from 2011 to 2017 (in billion U.S. dollars) currency, explaining that because many poor people in future of money, according to Reddit: “Bitcoin is an exciting developing countries don’t have access to traditional banking, new technology. For our foundation work, we are doing 90 it’s not financially worth it for banks to put branches in digital currency to help the poor get banking services. We 80 areas where the amounts stored and transferred are so don’t use bitcoin specifically for two reasons. One is that 76.52

small, leaving the poor at a huge disadvantage when it the poor shouldn’t have a currency whose value goes up 70 comes to exchanging, saving, and accessing money. and down a lot compared to their local currency. Second is that if a mistake is made in who you pay then you need to 60 58.21 be able to reverse it, so anonymity wouldn’t work.” 50 The emergence of cryptographic payment systems 45.37 The most talked about digital currency over the past several Among the more popular alternative mobile money systems 40 34.99 years has been Bitcoin. The online cryptographic payment is Keyna’s M-PESA. Safaricom, the country’s largest mobile- Revenue in billion U.S. dollars 30 26.68 system was invented by the illusive Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 network operator, launched Safaricom in 2007, and more and introduced as open-source software in 2009. Bitcoin uses than 17 million Kenyans are now using it. That’s equivalent 20 18.56 a type of peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central to more than two-thirds of the adult population; about 8.32 authority or banks; managing transactions and the issuing 25 percent of the country’s gross national product flows 10 of bitcoins is carried out collectively by the network itself. through it. Essentially, M-PESA lets people transfer money 0 Over the past several years, Bitcoin has seen rapid growth using their mobile phones and is by far the most successful 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* with numerous startups adopting the technology for all kinds of the various digital payment systems. of different financial and transactional-focused systems. Note: Worldwide; 2011 to 2013 Source: Gartner; TechCrunch; ID 269025

68 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 69 From Real to Virtual, the transformation of money Mobile Payments in emerging economies and the future of cashless economies 17 MILLION KENYANS ARE NOW USING THE ALTERNATIVE In developed countries, money has been digital for sometime, but for most of the rest of the world, cash is still king. Eighty-five Yet mobile payments aren’t limited to emerging markets. Sweden may be the most cashless MOBILE MONEY SYSTEM SAFARICOM percent of consumer transactions are done with cold hard cash, with even 55 percent of transactions in the United States society on the planet, where even street panhandlers accept virtual payments. Four out of still using some form of bill or coin. With the ever-increasing adoption of mobile technologies, the days of traditional paper five purchases are now made electronically in Sweden, and going totally cash-free is the money may be coming to an end. At the center of this transformation is the smart phone, which has become the nexus for next step, said Niklas Arvidsson, associate professor of industrial dynamics at Sweden’s Royal people’s lives both online and offline. As mobile technology drives a shift in how we buy things, the revenue that the Institute of Technology. “Banks and merchants invested heavily in card payment systems in payments industry extracts could grow to more than $2 trillion a year by 2023, double the 2013 figure, the Boston Consulting the 1990s, and these days, consumers are used to it,” Arvidsson said. 17M Group predicts. Among the biggest opportunities may be that of digital currency.

68 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 69 ESTIMATED GLOBAL The stakes are huge. The estimated global retail sales market is forecast to hit $28 trillion Some analysts question NFC’s payment dominance, however, because tapping a device Sweden’s other firsts RETAIL SALES MARKET FORECAST BY 2018 by 2018. Globally, almost 6 billion people now have access to a mobile phone. The next may not be significantly more convenient than swiping a card. Another approach is generation of money is enormous. Studies by Visa show that Americans are twice as likely “pay by name,” created by mobile payments startup Square. Its in-store system detects to carry a phone as cash; those between the ages of 18 and 34 are four times more likely. when a known mobile phone is in range, identifies the buyer, and displays his or her face 1661 Mobile payments doubled between 2012 and 2013 to $1 billion. eMarketer predicts mobile on a screen so that the person behind the register can simply tap the picture to complete FIRST BANKNOTES IN $28 payments will top $58 billion by 2017, and phones are just the beginning of e-cash. the transaction. EUROPE INTRODUCED TRILLION Digital wallet services used by digital buyers in the United States 2014 Yet another approach is PayPal’s Beacon and Apple’s iBeacon, which use proximity-based Most popular digital wallets according to users in the United States as of 4th quarter 2014 Bluetooth connections instead. A small vibration alerts customers’ phones upon crossing 1718 a store’s “digital fence” and syncing with apps to provide inventory, floor plans, discounts, 90.0% and preordered items. Payment would occur online, with the cashier simply confirming WOMEN GRANTED RIGHT 79% TO VOTE IN AGE OF LIBERTY 80.0% your registered picture for purchase security. Eventually, unique biometric information [ALTHOUGH, UNIVERSAL might also suffice for payment. Voice recognition or scans of fingerprints, retinas, or DNA SUFFRAGE DOESN’T ARRIVE 70.0% UNTIL 1921] could replace the need for more traditional forms of payment. Buying a product might be 57% 60.0% as simple as taking it. Of course, with the advancement of such technology, new ways of RESPONDENTS 50.0% tracking retail products will need to be devised. CONCERNED ABOUT 1955 SECURITY OF MOBILE 40.0% PAYMENTS For retailer big and small, legacy methodologies of optimizing store performance based IKEA SELLS FIRST FLATPACK 30.0% FURNITURE

Usage rate among digital buyers on optical traffic counters, ad hoc shopper studies, or merchandise analysis without browse 18% 20.0% 16% behavior have given way to a new set of adaptive technologies. These new solutions allow 11% modern retailers to add a new dimension of customer behavior to insights and allow them 10.0% 7% 6% 6% 3% 2% 2% to operate in real time. 1971 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% % 0.0% ABBA FORMED, BECOMING THE FIRST GROUP FROM A Serve iTunes Bitcoin PayPal Amazon LevelUp A major part of this trend is applying the methods and approaches found in the online NON-ENGLISH SPEAKING Starbucks Apple Pay Softcard CurrentC MasterPass COUNTRY TO ACHIEVE GLOBAL PayPal Credit Square Order Google Wallet Visa CheckoutDunkin Donuts world to the physical. By understanding traffic patterns, conversion triggers, and customer SUCCESS (AND FLEETINGLY Samsung Walllet behaviour at a more granular level, retailers are finding tremendous benefit by aligning MAKE FLARED CATSUITS COOL) Note: United States; 4th quarter 2014; 2,672 Respondents; Digital buyers who are aware of digital payment tools their in-store labor to meet customer demand and optimal product placement. Source: comScore; Various sources (Emerging Digital Payments Advisor); ID 284101

No longer are retailers relying on antiquated technologies to measure the performance of 2008 Security threats in mobile commerce their most expensive asset—their stores. Retailers are now beginning to implement advanced INAUGURAL COMMERCIAL But with all the potential digital currency offers, there is a dark side. Accenture recently forms of A/B testing of store layouts, understanding conversion rates by department, and MUSIC STREAMING SERVICE, SPOTIFY, LAUNCHES surveyed 4,000 consumers in North America and found that while more people expect employing shelf-specific measurement strategies. The use of advanced forms of analytics to use mobile payments, 57 percent of respondents were concerned about the security allows retailers to assess and implement changes that drive increased conversions in much of such transactions. Various approaches can address the technical problems, but the the same way online retailers have done. greatest may be perception with a continual flood of new high-profile breaches at major 2014 retailers, shaking consumer confidence in new forms of payment. The evolution to digital money won’t happen overnight, but it isn’t so much a question SWEDEN AWARDED FIRST PLACE AT THE WORLD of if, but when, and those who start thinking about how to equip this new cashless world ECONOMIC FORUM’S GLOBAL Although mobile technology, specifically phones, currently make up the majority of technical may very well be those who make the most cash. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT FOR ADVANCES payment focus, other lesser-known tech are poised to enable a broad new world of IN DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY Internet-connected commerce. Near field communication (NFC) is a set of ideas and AND RANKED FIRST FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN THE GLOBAL technology that enables smartphones and other devices to establish radio communication GREEN ECONOMY INDEX with each other. NFC chips could be placed inside wearable smart technology, allowing for nothing more than what you’re wearing as a form of ID and payment authorization. Even SOURCE a smart watch, ring, or smart glasses could be easier than a phone because you would not have to pull those items from a purse or pocket—simply tap, swipe, or blink an eye.

70 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 71 ESTIMATED GLOBAL The stakes are huge. The estimated global retail sales market is forecast to hit $28 trillion Some analysts question NFC’s payment dominance, however, because tapping a device Sweden’s other firsts RETAIL SALES MARKET FORECAST BY 2018 by 2018. Globally, almost 6 billion people now have access to a mobile phone. The next may not be significantly more convenient than swiping a card. Another approach is generation of money is enormous. Studies by Visa show that Americans are twice as likely “pay by name,” created by mobile payments startup Square. Its in-store system detects to carry a phone as cash; those between the ages of 18 and 34 are four times more likely. when a known mobile phone is in range, identifies the buyer, and displays his or her face 1661 Mobile payments doubled between 2012 and 2013 to $1 billion. eMarketer predicts mobile on a screen so that the person behind the register can simply tap the picture to complete FIRST BANKNOTES IN $28 payments will top $58 billion by 2017, and phones are just the beginning of e-cash. the transaction. EUROPE INTRODUCED TRILLION Digital wallet services used by digital buyers in the United States 2014 Yet another approach is PayPal’s Beacon and Apple’s iBeacon, which use proximity-based Most popular digital wallets according to users in the United States as of 4th quarter 2014 Bluetooth connections instead. A small vibration alerts customers’ phones upon crossing 1718 a store’s “digital fence” and syncing with apps to provide inventory, floor plans, discounts, 90.0% and preordered items. Payment would occur online, with the cashier simply confirming WOMEN GRANTED RIGHT 79% TO VOTE IN AGE OF LIBERTY 80.0% your registered picture for purchase security. Eventually, unique biometric information [ALTHOUGH, UNIVERSAL might also suffice for payment. Voice recognition or scans of fingerprints, retinas, or DNA SUFFRAGE DOESN’T ARRIVE 70.0% UNTIL 1921] could replace the need for more traditional forms of payment. Buying a product might be 57% 60.0% as simple as taking it. Of course, with the advancement of such technology, new ways of RESPONDENTS 50.0% tracking retail products will need to be devised. CONCERNED ABOUT 1955 SECURITY OF MOBILE 40.0% PAYMENTS For retailer big and small, legacy methodologies of optimizing store performance based IKEA SELLS FIRST FLATPACK 30.0% FURNITURE

70 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 71 07

The Future of Education

Today the world’s population stands at 7.2 billion people. We are also seeing a rapidly growing middle class (particularly in emerging countries) as individuals, powered by increased education, move out of traditional labor based jobs and transform into “knowledge workers.” This increased prosperity is spawning further growth in education because families are now able to invest more in the education of their offspring. OECD research shows that demand for education has risen by 20 percent in developed “Measuring the effectiveness of education is critical for the student and future of learning experiences” countries over the past decade and

Edward Hannapole CIO Kaplan University substantially more in developing markets. Investment in education is a significantgrowth area globally.

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Learning Is Changing - Driven By the New Work

-- Is the classroom Going Away?

-- What Does Learning Look Like Beyond 2020?

-- The Future Is Education

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 73 07

The Future of Education

Edward Hannapole CIO Kaplan University substantially more in developing markets. Investment in education is a significantgrowth area globally.

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Learning Is Changing - Driven By the New Work

-- Is the classroom Going Away?

-- What Does Learning Look Like Beyond 2020?

-- The Future Is Education

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 73 As we look across the future of work, the changing workplace, and the impact of the Just-in-time education is going to fuel the demand and offerings of what we presently call millennial generation, it is only natural that we will see a regeneration of the education Massive Open Online Courseware (MOOC) and learning networks. MOOCs are making space over the next decade. Millennials in particular want education to adapt to their high education more affordable and available to more students. Services like TED, Coursera, priority needs for a meaningful life and work-life balance. This mandates being able to Eduscapes and Open Learning Exchange bring learners, resources, services, and learning secure a well-paying job without a lifelong education expense liability. agents together. The next generation of this service will result in a hybrid education model where students can learn at their own pace, focusing on the areas they need to most support. This is personalized learning. The Open Learning Initiative (OLI) at Carnegie Mellon combines The future of education is not just about utilizing the abundance of technology that is “If a child can’t learn an open high-quality course with continuous feedback and research to transform education. available. It is about how the education marketplace will adapt to the changing needs of the way we teach, the future knowledge worker, the future of work, and the economy. This new personalized and adaptive learning model will reduce the time and cost of maybe we should THE AMAZON RETAIL education whilst delivering a highly trained and effective worker into the enterprise. In this article, we take a look at several emerging trends that are evolving education, and teach the way they MOMENT FOR We are seeing a move to instructional environments that are competency-based and we explore some of the technology that is driving these changes and disrupting how we EDUCATION incorporate personal and real-time performance feedback. Information is sourced from learn.” learn. Some key themes covered are: Last year in the multiple digital data streams and dashboards to provide content that is suitable – Michael J. Fox 2019 Citrix Technology to students at differing levels of ability. Landscape, we identified a •• The future of work expectations of students and employers are changing education and the learning experience. number emerging trends that will change education •• High-definition classroom experiences are being amplified by virtual spaces, and walls are “leveled” as learning, teachers, and students experience learning everywhere. over the next five years. “Personalized learning is enabled by instructional We called this the •• Disruption in education through technology will be common in the coming years. Amazon Retail Moment environments that are competency-based. By tapping for Education driven by Learning Is Changing - Driven by the New Work the need to do education In a study by Bentley University, millennial graduates felt they were significantly into modalities of blended and online learning using at scale, less expensively, underprepared for the workforce. Millennials are now looking for the most efficient use + with higher quality, and of time and money to gain the required knowledge to do a job. This is driving the new advanced technologies, personalized learning is A more effectively. demand for a new approach to education such as just-in-time and lifelong learning. enhanced by transparent data and abundant content Lifelong learning is therefore becoming a must, and all workers need be become students resources flowing from redesigned instructional Research by for life and embrace continuous learning. Lifelong learning is not a new concept; certain Sadler and Good professions have been embracing lifelong learning for centuries (medical, science). models to address the standards. By doing this, new (“The impact of Self- Technology is driving a huge rate of change of information that we need to keep up with. and-Peer Grading on The traditional model of a four-year college degree has several problems. First, much of school models can unleash the potential of each and Student Learning”) the information that was learned during this time is now out of date. Second, and most shows peer grading importantly, the amount of information we need to learn at the end of the degree has every student in ways never before possible.” grown as much as 10 times what is was when the degree was started. is more effective than – Defining and Integrating Personalized, Blended and Competency Education, iNacol the traditional 1-n grading we have As our working life extends and many of the traditional jobs change, most of us will end up having many careers over our lifetime. Additionally, skills needed for a particular job historically used. will change, and workers need to adapt quickly or be left behind. Employers of the future While personalized learning can leverage both online and traditional learning models are going to looking for workers who successfully embrace lifelong learning. Thus, there (such as books of different reading levels), the global learning community is using this is a growing demand to refresh, relearn, and fill this gap using a just-in-time vocational methodology to build a comprehensive picture of the students’ education pathways. model of learning. Some examples proving value in this area are: Using analytics, skills-based assessments, and automated marking, content delivery is automatically customized for the student’s current ability and where they need to get •• http://devbootcamp.com/ or http://www.appacademy.io/ can teach you how to code. to. This adaptive learning is the future. •• https://www.edx.org provides many skills-based learning opportunities.

74 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 75 As we look across the future of work, the changing workplace, and the impact of the Just-in-time education is going to fuel the demand and offerings of what we presently call millennial generation, it is only natural that we will see a regeneration of the education Massive Open Online Courseware (MOOC) and learning networks. MOOCs are making space over the next decade. Millennials in particular want education to adapt to their high education more affordable and available to more students. Services like TED, Coursera, priority needs for a meaningful life and work-life balance. This mandates being able to Eduscapes and Open Learning Exchange bring learners, resources, services, and learning secure a well-paying job without a lifelong education expense liability. agents together. The next generation of this service will result in a hybrid education model where students can learn at their own pace, focusing on the areas they need to most support. This is personalized learning. The Open Learning Initiative (OLI) at Carnegie Mellon combines The future of education is not just about utilizing the abundance of technology that is “If a child can’t learn an open high-quality course with continuous feedback and research to transform education. available. It is about how the education marketplace will adapt to the changing needs of the way we teach, the future knowledge worker, the future of work, and the economy. This new personalized and adaptive learning model will reduce the time and cost of maybe we should THE AMAZON RETAIL education whilst delivering a highly trained and effective worker into the enterprise. In this article, we take a look at several emerging trends that are evolving education, and teach the way they MOMENT FOR We are seeing a move to instructional environments that are competency-based and we explore some of the technology that is driving these changes and disrupting how we EDUCATION incorporate personal and real-time performance feedback. Information is sourced from learn.” learn. Some key themes covered are: Last year in the multiple digital data streams and dashboards to provide content that is suitable – Michael J. Fox 2019 Citrix Technology to students at differing levels of ability. Landscape, we identified a •• The future of work expectations of students and employers are changing education and the learning experience. number emerging trends that will change education •• High-definition classroom experiences are being amplified by virtual spaces, and walls are “leveled” as learning, teachers, and students experience learning everywhere. over the next five years. “Personalized learning is enabled by instructional We called this the •• Disruption in education through technology will be common in the coming years. Amazon Retail Moment environments that are competency-based. By tapping for Education driven by Learning Is Changing - Driven by the New Work the need to do education In a study by Bentley University, millennial graduates felt they were significantly into modalities of blended and online learning using at scale, less expensively, underprepared for the workforce. Millennials are now looking for the most efficient use + with higher quality, and of time and money to gain the required knowledge to do a job. This is driving the new advanced technologies, personalized learning is A more effectively. demand for a new approach to education such as just-in-time and lifelong learning. enhanced by transparent data and abundant content Lifelong learning is therefore becoming a must, and all workers need be become students resources flowing from redesigned instructional Research by for life and embrace continuous learning. Lifelong learning is not a new concept; certain Sadler and Good professions have been embracing lifelong learning for centuries (medical, science). models to address the standards. By doing this, new (“The impact of Self- Technology is driving a huge rate of change of information that we need to keep up with. and-Peer Grading on The traditional model of a four-year college degree has several problems. First, much of school models can unleash the potential of each and Student Learning”) the information that was learned during this time is now out of date. Second, and most shows peer grading importantly, the amount of information we need to learn at the end of the degree has every student in ways never before possible.” grown as much as 10 times what is was when the degree was started. is more effective than – Defining and Integrating Personalized, Blended and Competency Education, iNacol the traditional 1-n grading we have As our working life extends and many of the traditional jobs change, most of us will end up having many careers over our lifetime. Additionally, skills needed for a particular job historically used. will change, and workers need to adapt quickly or be left behind. Employers of the future While personalized learning can leverage both online and traditional learning models are going to looking for workers who successfully embrace lifelong learning. Thus, there (such as books of different reading levels), the global learning community is using this is a growing demand to refresh, relearn, and fill this gap using a just-in-time vocational methodology to build a comprehensive picture of the students’ education pathways. model of learning. Some examples proving value in this area are: Using analytics, skills-based assessments, and automated marking, content delivery is automatically customized for the student’s current ability and where they need to get •• http://devbootcamp.com/ or http://www.appacademy.io/ can teach you how to code. to. This adaptive learning is the future. •• https://www.edx.org provides many skills-based learning opportunities.

74 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 75 A RECENT ACCENTURE Many believe adaptive learning technologies will pave the way for a pedagogical renaissance. AVERAGE SURVEY IDENTIFIED THAT COLLEGE DEGREE In a recent Gallup and Inside Higher Ed survey, two in three college and university presidents COSTS HAVE GONE UP believed adaptive learning would make a “positive impact on higher education.” Adaptive learning may not replace teachers in the classroom, but it will definitely change the teacher’s role in the classroom. Additionally, adaptive learning allows self-paced learning and learning 1,120% 86% SINCE 1978 WITH OF RESPONDENTS IDENTIFY at the speed individuals’ brains can absorb the information, bringing a more personalized DIGITAL CAPABILITIES AS A learning experience. Gartner believes adaptive learning is maturing quickly and is one of TOP DETERMINANT IN 44% CHOOSING A UNIVERSITY the most strategic technologies in education. OF GRADUATES TO ATTEND BEING UNDEREMPLOYED.

“65% of today’s grade school kids will end up DID YOU KNOW? KHAN ACADEMY HAS at jobs that haven’t been invented yet.” – United States Department of Labor: Futurework - Trends and Challenges for Work in the 21st Century Ricardo Semler: Radical wisdom for a company, a school, a life. “The aim of the 6M MILLION STUDENTS LOG ON EACH MONTH, MAKING IT THE university is a true LARGEST UNIVERSITY ON EARTH! Is the classroom going away ? THE SMART INSTITUTION enlargement of Elite colleges historically have provided a social experience that allows networking among Our traditional education providers, those bricks and mortar institutions won’t be going away, mind... the power of top talent, alumni, and professors. In the next five years, these types of networking opportunities but they will adapt. We will see these institutions not just becoming a curator of content viewing many things and social interactions will continue to be transformed by technologies. The social experiences to be delivered online but also partnering with other organizations to bring a unique value and “connections” for students in future will occur in new workplaces and in virtual ways proposition to their students. Brokering unique programs of multi-source content and at once.” through online collaboration and social networks. integration with the personalized and adaptive learning methods to produce highly charged –John Henry Cardinal Newman, students. These institutions will attempt to take their alumni on a lifelong partnership of The Idea of a University “The workforce has Higher education is becoming unbundled and modularized for specific topics and learning continuous “subscription learning.” content. Degrees are giving way to digital badges and job specific learning. Universities been educated and will adapt as degrees and diplomas are less about outcomes of time spent at school, and VIRTUAL CLASSROOM trained to obtain the more focused on outcomes that enable the students to become more knowledgable. Virtual classrooms create the interaction between students and teachers as well as students jobs of yesterday…” with the class without physical presence. It makes it easy for students to learn and be educated by teachers from anywhere. Platforms like Coursera are opening up information –Jeff Weiner CEO LinkedIn “A university training is the great ordinary means and providing students the ability to customize and learn tracks of information that match their objectives. Other platforms like Google Classroom provide technologies that organize to a great but ordinary end; it aims at raising the the online learning experience both for teachers and students. This model ultimately can influence or impact the way we consume and pay for education. intellectual tone of society… It is the education

which gives a man a clear conscious view of his However with the move to virtual classrooms comes with it the challenges of maintaining or replicating those personal interactions that we human’s find important in an education own opinions and judgments, a truth in developing environment. Gone is the out of classroom study group - or is it ? A number of online platforms are now going beyond the computer to actively set up and promote real-life study them, an eloquence in expressing them and a force groups in cities and encourage their online students to form an alumni. in urging them.” – John Henry Newman, The Idea of a University

76 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 77 A RECENT ACCENTURE Many believe adaptive learning technologies will pave the way for a pedagogical renaissance. AVERAGE SURVEY IDENTIFIED THAT COLLEGE DEGREE In a recent Gallup and Inside Higher Ed survey, two in three college and university presidents COSTS HAVE GONE UP believed adaptive learning would make a “positive impact on higher education.” Adaptive learning may not replace teachers in the classroom, but it will definitely change the teacher’s role in the classroom. Additionally, adaptive learning allows self-paced learning and learning 1,120% 86% SINCE 1978 WITH OF RESPONDENTS IDENTIFY at the speed individuals’ brains can absorb the information, bringing a more personalized DIGITAL CAPABILITIES AS A learning experience. Gartner believes adaptive learning is maturing quickly and is one of TOP DETERMINANT IN 44% CHOOSING A UNIVERSITY the most strategic technologies in education. OF GRADUATES TO ATTEND BEING UNDEREMPLOYED.

76 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 77 “I recognize in these Citrix believes the key areas for the future of education are: Reality Is Broken: difficult times that Why Games Make Us •• Lifelong learning is the new norm, and employers are expecting workers to embrace there is no silver this model. Better and How They •• Students will have greater control of their personalized learning needs. Can Change bullet. That no one •• Creative skills and “trade” skills will be important in the future of work, requiring the the World thing is going to educational content to be dynamic in time and delivery for the future worker. –Jane McGonigal •• Massive Online Open Courseware becomes a core part of consuming education and solve our education learning with requirements of lifelong and personalized learning. problems…but, I’m •• Institutions will be forced to adapt to a hybrid curriculum and restructure to fit the needs of students. This will include embracing and aggregating third-party content telling you this is a (MOOCs) and taking an aggressive leap in the adoption of new technologies to enhance huge step forward, this experience. the work coming ACTIVITY-BASED LEARNING - GAMIFICATION AND VIRTUAL REALITY Want to know Research has shown that kids learn best through play, and the same goes for adults. more on how out of OLI.” Citrix Classroom of the Future Gamification sees the application of video game strategy to education and will transform Computer how we deliver an education experience. Gamification will allow a personalized learning –Dr. William E. “Brit” Kirwan, Technology Chancellor, University System of experience that is adaptive, reinforced, and infinite. Farmers in emerging countries are Maryland, OLI event hosted by Will Transform CMU in Washington D.C. What Does Learning Look Like Beyond 2020? already using games similar to Farmville to learn more about crop development. Virtual What if your experience was gained through uploading of information and available in your reality is expected to be reach 25 million people by 2018 and will have a major impact on Schools? memory and though instantaneously? Successful experiments at MIT are now providing what education. For example, surgeons are starting to use virtual reality to simulate medical could be the future of learning by uploading thoughts and knowledge. Scientists from MIT procedures. Engineering students are starting to use virtual reality to design and optimise have successfully implanted thoughts into brains of mice allowing them to “learn” without their ideas—something they would never had been able to do in the past. the experience of trial and error. Experiences might also change as we are able to learn from other’s experiences through experience uploads to our brains. ROBOTS ARE THE NEW TEACHER’S AID Imagine having to mark a million students’ worth of work. Instant feedback is crucial Virtual reality will be adopted by education to bring the field to the class. Advancements to rapid and effective learning. Humankind just cannot scale to provide this effective in VR tools, such as the Oculus Rift, will significantly empower both the student and the feedback. MOOCs and other online learning solutions are starting to use robots to education. Companies such as Microsoft, Sony, and others are all continuing research into automate coursework grading (Khan Academy). This is not just about finding the right “WE SPEND this technology of the future. If a picture tells a thousand words, imagine what a virtual multiple-choice answer; robot algorithms are becoming so efficient they can walk BILLION experience can tell us! through full mathematical and scientific derivations. It’s about understanding the HOURS student’s thought process. 3 Imagine being able to learn about an object through feel and interaction - tangible computing A WEEK PLAYING will provide that lifelike collaborative learning and interaction. We recommend taking a look COMPUTER GAMES.” However, robots are still trying to master the art of marking subjects that require deep at the Benefits of a Tangible Interface for Collaborative Learning and Interaction. Combine –Jane McGonigal, critical thinking. While they continue to improve in leaps and bounds many online Institute of the Future tangible computing and virtual reality and the future becomes very exciting.The learning and educations systems (Coursera) are moving to peer grading to produce the high-scale education we receive beyond 2020 will evolve at an even more rapid pace and will transform feedback that is needed. In this scenario, tens to hundreds of thousands of students are more than we have ever experienced in the field of education. peer-grading each other’s work in almost real time.

The Future Is Education In the next five years, technology will disrupt the learning experience in many ways. Students will consume knowledge and learning in new ways, classrooms and teachers will be better equipped for education of students, and the learning experience will continue to become more virtual. Ultimately, learning becomes an amazing experience for teachers and students with knowledge accelerating while bringing new ideas and solutions around the globe. Additionally, students are prepared for the future of work and expectations at the workplace of the future.

78 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 79 “I recognize in these Citrix believes the key areas for the future of education are: Reality Is Broken: difficult times that Why Games Make Us •• Lifelong learning is the new norm, and employers are expecting workers to embrace there is no silver this model. Better and How They •• Students will have greater control of their personalized learning needs. Can Change bullet. That no one •• Creative skills and “trade” skills will be important in the future of work, requiring the the World thing is going to educational content to be dynamic in time and delivery for the future worker. –Jane McGonigal •• Massive Online Open Courseware becomes a core part of consuming education and solve our education learning with requirements of lifelong and personalized learning. problems…but, I’m •• Institutions will be forced to adapt to a hybrid curriculum and restructure to fit the needs of students. This will include embracing and aggregating third-party content telling you this is a (MOOCs) and taking an aggressive leap in the adoption of new technologies to enhance huge step forward, this experience. the work coming ACTIVITY-BASED LEARNING - GAMIFICATION AND VIRTUAL REALITY Want to know Research has shown that kids learn best through play, and the same goes for adults. more on how out of OLI.” Citrix Classroom of the Future Gamification sees the application of video game strategy to education and will transform Computer how we deliver an education experience. Gamification will allow a personalized learning –Dr. William E. “Brit” Kirwan, Technology Chancellor, University System of experience that is adaptive, reinforced, and infinite. Farmers in emerging countries are Maryland, OLI event hosted by Will Transform CMU in Washington D.C. What Does Learning Look Like Beyond 2020? already using games similar to Farmville to learn more about crop development. Virtual What if your experience was gained through uploading of information and available in your reality is expected to be reach 25 million people by 2018 and will have a major impact on Schools? memory and though instantaneously? Successful experiments at MIT are now providing what education. For example, surgeons are starting to use virtual reality to simulate medical could be the future of learning by uploading thoughts and knowledge. Scientists from MIT procedures. Engineering students are starting to use virtual reality to design and optimise have successfully implanted thoughts into brains of mice allowing them to “learn” without their ideas—something they would never had been able to do in the past. the experience of trial and error. Experiences might also change as we are able to learn from other’s experiences through experience uploads to our brains. ROBOTS ARE THE NEW TEACHER’S AID Imagine having to mark a million students’ worth of work. Instant feedback is crucial Virtual reality will be adopted by education to bring the field to the class. Advancements to rapid and effective learning. Humankind just cannot scale to provide this effective in VR tools, such as the Oculus Rift, will significantly empower both the student and the feedback. MOOCs and other online learning solutions are starting to use robots to education. Companies such as Microsoft, Sony, and others are all continuing research into automate coursework grading (Khan Academy). This is not just about finding the right “WE SPEND this technology of the future. If a picture tells a thousand words, imagine what a virtual multiple-choice answer; robot algorithms are becoming so efficient they can walk BILLION experience can tell us! through full mathematical and scientific derivations. It’s about understanding the HOURS student’s thought process. 3 Imagine being able to learn about an object through feel and interaction - tangible computing A WEEK PLAYING will provide that lifelike collaborative learning and interaction. We recommend taking a look COMPUTER GAMES.” However, robots are still trying to master the art of marking subjects that require deep at the Benefits of a Tangible Interface for Collaborative Learning and Interaction. Combine –Jane McGonigal, critical thinking. While they continue to improve in leaps and bounds many online Institute of the Future tangible computing and virtual reality and the future becomes very exciting.The learning and educations systems (Coursera) are moving to peer grading to produce the high-scale education we receive beyond 2020 will evolve at an even more rapid pace and will transform feedback that is needed. In this scenario, tens to hundreds of thousands of students are more than we have ever experienced in the field of education. peer-grading each other’s work in almost real time.

78 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 79 08

Healthcare of Things

We are witnessing the beginning of a healthcare transformation, led in no small part by the telemetry and insights from health-focused Internet of Things. But things are not as simple as they seem...

The Internet of Things melds with healthcare to evolve your next-gen health experience.

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Satisfying the Craving for Data

-- Welcome to the Healthcare of Things

-- Predictions for the Healthcare of Things

-- How To Get Started With the Healthcare of Things

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 81 08

Healthcare of Things

We are witnessing the beginning of a healthcare transformation, led in no small part by the telemetry and insights from health-focused Internet of Things. But things are not as simple as they seem...

The Internet of Things melds with healthcare to evolve your next-gen health experience.

IN THIS CHAPTER

-- Satisfying the Craving for Data

-- Welcome to the Healthcare of Things

-- Predictions for the Healthcare of Things

-- How To Get Started With the Healthcare of Things

CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 81 The Healthcare of Things heralds a deeply personal healthcare experience, whether for advancing fitness, driving more informed Welcome to the Healthcare of Things interactions with healthcare professionals, or realizing active and targeted therapy management. Augmented by sensors, Things will transform visits with medical professionals. Things will assist with chronic disease wearables and instrumentation, the Healthcare of Things provides us and our caregivers with a personalized impression of monitoring and reminding us to take prescription and engage in therapies. Things will help our health throughout activities of daily living (ADL). us make healthy choices so health parameters stay within acceptable, long-term boundaries. Things are already impacting fitness. Healthcare is much more than doctor’s office visits. But it’s a good place to start our journey into the Healthcare of Things by understanding the health parameters that are important to the medical profession . Whether your fitness goals are to optimize your weight (BMI), excel in a triathlon, or to simply reach the television remote faster, it’s clear that the Healthcare of Things will have a major When you go to the doctor, they always take vitals: heart rate, blood pressure, temperature, etc. The results are basic impact on each of us. THINGS WILL TRANSFORM measurements that represent a moment in time and have associated “normal” ranges. The results can be skewed to indicate VISITS WITH MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS. a false positive if you were nervous, sleep deprived, overexerted, or otherwise not relaxed. Worse yet, special tests like an In addition to direct applicability to interaction with healthcare professionals, also consider in-office ECG/EKG can produce false negatives, hiding arrhythmias that only result from intense exercise or stress. It’s clear the impact of deep interaction with your environment. What if your car told you that you that you and your healthcare provider would benefit from more data—and active monitoring throughout ADL. were too tired and distracted to drive?

Satisfying the Craving for Data Predictions for the Healthcare of Things: What if your wearables and other things informed you and your doctor of your sleep patterns, cardiac and circulatory profiles, and responses to varying conditions of stress? And what if in addition to providing measurements, they interacted with your 1. Wearables will be the predominant form factor. environment, informing you of small corrective measures, encouraging healthy choices and automating aspects of your 2. The medical profession will be reluctantly dragged into Healthcare of Things. life with the goal of enhancing your health? 3. You will be heavily incentivized to be Healthcare of Things instrumented. 4. Collected data from Healthcare of Things is a treasure trove—for good or evil. 5. Vendor lapses in security and privacy will not be tolerated. 6. Visits with caregivers will be more meaningful. Fitness will be more achievable.

Wearables – From watchbands to sensors embedded in clothing, shoes and sports equipment, we have a plethora of information about our heartbeats, steps, temperature, and

general movement available today. Advancements in sensors will bring medical-grade COLLECTED DATA FROM vitals into our daily lives. And, as things evolve, they will increasingly work together, learning HEALTHCARE OF THINGS from each other, and performing checks and balances to assure accuracy and consistency. IS A TREASURE TROVE.

Impact on Medical Profession – The practice of medicine is cautiously slow to change. Whether it’s accepting the data and readings from personal devices—or the much more serious aspects of those devices controlling drug delivery —IoT growth for healthcare will be mostly patient-driven in the early days and used to augment both in-office and virtual visits.

Want Cash? Wear This! – While being instrumented today means purchasing devices, the future will bring “free” devices. But there’s a catch—you will need to anonymously or otherwise publish your data. This practice will be tied to insurance discounts and company health FPO program incentives, and you will be directly targeted. Follow the Money Into the Cloud– Marketers, researchers, and insurance companies salivate over thinking of all the uses for HoT data and the money they will make. Your data represents you and your habits. If it’s not properly anonymized, it can be directly tied to your social media profiles—and you will be directly targeted.

82 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 83 The Healthcare of Things heralds a deeply personal healthcare experience, whether for advancing fitness, driving more informed Welcome to the Healthcare of Things interactions with healthcare professionals, or realizing active and targeted therapy management. Augmented by sensors, Things will transform visits with medical professionals. Things will assist with chronic disease wearables and instrumentation, the Healthcare of Things provides us and our caregivers with a personalized impression of monitoring and reminding us to take prescription and engage in therapies. Things will help our health throughout activities of daily living (ADL). us make healthy choices so health parameters stay within acceptable, long-term boundaries. Things are already impacting fitness. Healthcare is much more than doctor’s office visits. But it’s a good place to start our journey into the Healthcare of Things by understanding the health parameters that are important to the medical profession . Whether your fitness goals are to optimize your weight (BMI), excel in a triathlon, or to simply reach the television remote faster, it’s clear that the Healthcare of Things will have a major When you go to the doctor, they always take vitals: heart rate, blood pressure, temperature, etc. The results are basic impact on each of us. THINGS WILL TRANSFORM measurements that represent a moment in time and have associated “normal” ranges. The results can be skewed to indicate VISITS WITH MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS. a false positive if you were nervous, sleep deprived, overexerted, or otherwise not relaxed. Worse yet, special tests like an In addition to direct applicability to interaction with healthcare professionals, also consider in-office ECG/EKG can produce false negatives, hiding arrhythmias that only result from intense exercise or stress. It’s clear the impact of deep interaction with your environment. What if your car told you that you that you and your healthcare provider would benefit from more data—and active monitoring throughout ADL. were too tired and distracted to drive?

Wearables – From watchbands to sensors embedded in clothing, shoes and sports equipment, we have a plethora of information about our heartbeats, steps, temperature, and

82 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 83 Vendors: How to get kicked out of the party - Security and privacy are not an option. Vendors must respect that the data generated by HoT includes highly regulated PHI, containing information on vitals, habits, and genomics. Breaches will be highly publicized, and vendor reputation will result in the loss of lucrative contracts—not to mention individuals trashing them on social media. Healthcare data is serious.

Looking Forward to Our Visits – Medical professionals and other caregivers will now have data to monitor us and may even have the benefit of a data aggregation and reporting service to turn terabytes of data into actionable health intelligence. Instead of relying on the patient truthfully and completely giving their health and fitness picture, Healthcare of Work better. Live better. Things will bring needed accuracy and transparency. The data doesn’t lie! HEALTHCARE OF THINGS WILL BRING NEEDED ACCURACY AND TRANSPARENCY. How To Get Started With the Healthcare of Things

-- Consider what participative healthcare means to you and your health situation. -- Personal health begins with fitness, so get up from your desk, get out and move, and get more sleep. -- Into devices? Purchase a fitness tracker with heart rate and sleep monitoring. Also available are connected scales, toothbrushes, and even blood oxygen (SPO2). -- Learn how to integrate. Talk to your doctor, participate in health programs through your employer, and see how your insurance company is thinking about IoT for healthcare. -- Immerse yourself in data. Chart your progress. Perform self-wellness checks and chart how they change over time. Strive for meaningful and actionable intelligence in healthcare.

The Healthcare of Things is about changing lives. Optimizing costs and outcomes. Improving medical communication and understanding. It’s also a great way to be informed about one of the most important aspects of your life—your health—so get out today and start using Healthcare of Things to get you instrumented for life.

About Citrix Citrix (NASDAQ:CTXS) is leading the transition to software-defining the workplace, uniting virtualization, mobility management, networking and SaaS solutions to enable new ways for businesses and people to work better. Citrix solutions power business mobility through secure, mobile workspaces that provide people with instant access to apps, desktops, data and communications on any device, over any network and cloud. With annual revenue in 2014 of $3.14 billion, Citrix solutions are in use at more than 330,000 organizations and by over 100 million users globally. Learn more at www.citrix.com

Copyright © 2015 Citrix Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Citrix, the Citrix logo and other Citrix marks appearing herein are trademarks of Citrix Systems, Inc. and/or one or more of its subsidiaries, and may be registered in the U.S. and in other countries. Other marks appearing herein are the property of their respective owner/s.

84 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 85 Vendors: How to get kicked out of the party - Security and privacy are not an option. Vendors must respect that the data generated by HoT includes highly regulated PHI, containing information on vitals, habits, and genomics. Breaches will be highly publicized, and vendor reputation will result in the loss of lucrative contracts—not to mention individuals trashing them on social media. Healthcare data is serious.

84 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 CITRIX 2020 TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE | APRIL 2015 85