THE UNIVERSITY OFmiCHIGflf l popuLflnon STUDIES CEflTER 1981-1982 Acknowledgemen is:

The Population Studies Center wishes to thank the University of Michigan Research News for thema pdrawin g on p. 2an d Bob Kalmbach of University Information Services for the photo on p. 3. 1981-1982 The Economic Role of Women in Developing Countries Annual Report ofth e Center History

Population StudiesCente r Research Susan Van Eckan d Kathleen Duke, Editors Research Facilities Abstracts of Current Research Publications

Training Program Description Visitors Dissertations Completed Prospectuses Approved Publications and Achievements Courses in Demography Former Students

University of Michigan Professional Activities 1225 S. University Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104 Staff Roster The Economic Role of Women in DevelopingCountrie s

The status of women is an important concern of govern­ Social support systems are of greater importance to ments in less developed countries (LDCs) and of interna­ women, children and the elderly. Social support may come tional agencies helping in the development effort. As a from the government, through health clinics, social securi­ result, demographers and other social scientists focus con­ ty or school lunches, or from private sources, such as fami­ siderable research on the circumstances of women in ly and friends. It may be monetary, as when migrants send LDCs. money to their rural families, or it may take (he form of Professor Eva Mueller of the child care, help at harvest time, gifts associated with Population Studies Center has special occasions such as birthdays, or providing a home approached this area as an for aging parents or a widowed sister. economist attempting to deter­ Professor Mueller believes that one problem faced by mine, first, the factors which women during a time of rapid socioeconomic change is contribute to women's generally deterioration of the private support system before the less-favored economic status, and economy can afford public programs to replace it. Because second, ways to improve the of childbearing and childrearing responsibilities, greater status of both women and their longevity, and social restrictions on employment, women families through education, tend to be more dependent than men on social support. government-sponsored loans, Without it, they may cling to the old ways, fear to strike rural works projects, and coop­ out on their own, and desire large numbers of children. eratives. The support system available to women in LDCs needs Professor Mueller has concen­ careful study, according to Professor Mueller. Important trated on rural populations Eva L. Mueller aspects include: 1) the likelihood of receiving support in a because, despite a tendency to ur­ given situation; 2) amounts of money, goods or services ban migration, most people in the received; 3) characteristics of both donor and recipient; 4) Third World stiff five in ruraf areas. In many countries, circumstances prompting the transfer; and 5) dependabili­ women and children are left behind on small landholdings ty of the system. when men migrate to areas of greater economic opportuni­ Customs regarding property ownership and traditional ty. The risk of desertion, divorce or early widowhoood is views of proper working roles for women aggravate their substantial. In general, rural women are poorer than the poverty. These customs have not changed during a period rural population as a whole. when men are less willing to support female relatives or To measure women's poverty and establish public policy wives or marry the women who bear them children. Thus to reduce it, Professor Mueller advocates microlevel study women suffer from a lag in cultural adaptations to a new of three central aspects: employment problems, support economic situation. systems and women's economic behavior as a result of social customs and employment options. Employment data for women in LDCs are often inade­ rofessor Mueller served as consultant to the World quate. Traditionally, censuses or other official surveys P Bank Population and Human Resources Division on a have relied on information supplied by heads of household research project dealing with socioeconomic and (usually males). Underreporting is common. In some demographic aspects of household economy in rural cultures, it is socially demeaning to allow one's wife to Botswana. Botswana is of particular interest to the study work. Further, the definition of employment may not in­ of rural women because it is an extreme example of a pat­ clude all female occupations that affect family income. A tern common to many African countries — male migration woman may work without pay in the family farm or from rural areas. The wage labor market of rural business. She may weave baskets, brew beer for sale, or Botswana is severely limited, even for adult males; many take in laundry, in addition to her household and child men must live and work away from home (usually in the care responsibilities. These activities are income-earning in South African mines) for a large pan of the year. This some way, but often none or only some are reported. creates female-headed households, which are significantly Clearly the best person to question about work is the per­ poorer than other households in the same rural areas. son who does that work; Professor Mueller recommends The World Bank Survey shows that absence of adult gathering data from women themselves. male earning power is an important factor in this poverty,

1 since the number of dependents per household remains Traditional customs concerning ownership of property about the same for all households regardless of number of and the sexual division of labor may have functioned well earners. in the 19th century when labor supply and demand were in balance and men did not need to leave home to find work. In the late 20th century, however, not enough rural jobs are available for a rapidly growing population. In asset- poor households, women have few opportunities to become self-supporting. They desire children to extend their kinship network and provide a source of support in old age. Generally in rural areas, children may be valued as a source of labor, but in a female-headed household, they contribute little to productivity. "Work opportunities for children in rural Botswana depend on access to productive assets," says Professor Mueller. Thus in cattle-poor households with small landhoidings, the contribution of children is small. In 1974/75, the Central Statistical Office of Botswana, with financial assistance from the World Bank, conducted the Rural Income Distribution Survey (RIDS). Data from this survey indicate that, in Botswana at least, rural women are dealing resourcefully and energetically with the adverse conditions we have discussed. Women appear to be engaging in entrepreneurial ac­ tivities, such as handicrafts and beer brewing, which can be BOTSWANA undertaken with a minimum of capital. Professor Mueller notes that earnings from these activities are sometimes used to acquire more productive assets. Another positive aspect of women's circumstances has been that Botswana is one of the few places in the world where females obtain more schooling than males, mainly A second obstacle to economic advancement by rural because boys are herders of cattle and so are away from the women is a cultural tradition of male dominance. By tribal village most of the time. Since women have somewhat law, women are considered minors under the guardianship more education than men, and there is a strong link be­ of male relatives, and so cannot inherit property. Cattle tween parents' education and that of children, one would wealth is concentrated in male-headed households by be­ expect that where women make the decisions, children quest from father to son. Men are particularly likely to would be better educated. Data from RIDS support this migrate from households that are cattle-poor, leaving conclusion. women who cannot earn enough to buy livestock of their The World Bank study suggests several ways that the own. Land is allocated by the tribal authorities. Although government of Botswana could improve the economic women are eligible to receive land grants, they must be able position of rural women: provide special credit facilities to cultivate the land to qualify for a holding. Women are for households headed by women, urge tribal chiefs to en­ handicapped if they have no oxen or lack the physical courage bequests of cattle to daughters as well as sons, and strength to handle them. make draft power (such as oxen) available for hire on reasonable terms at critical times. Agricultural extension A third factor contributing to the poverty of rural services should aim their instruction at both women and women in Botswana is cultural restriction of occupations men. Cottage industries, promoted by villages, would pro­ that may be undertaken. Chores needing little or no capital vide opportunities for women to earn wages. Rural and characterized by low productivity — tending crops, cooperatives should welcome female members and act as gathering wood, food processing and service activities — an umbrella organization for women's activities, crafts are performed by women, while more productive work and service occupations; instruction in nutrition, health, such as raising cattle is done by men. This differentiation is child care and family planning could be an additional present in the wage labor market as well. Where women benefit. work for wages, they tend to remain in traditional sex- specific roles, such as servants, farm laborers or gardeners. Efforts to increase the earning potential of men would Very few have been able to enter the newer semi-skilled help reduce the male-migration that intensifies rural pover­ and skilled occupations, such as drivers, mechanics, con­ ty. However, Professor Mueller believes that government struction workers, or office clerks. Consequently, male policy maker in LDCs should make women a prime target wage workers earn nearly twice as much as female wage in their attempts to raise and equalize rural incomes. workers of the same age and education. "The institutional and cultural constraints under which rural women operate in Botswana are formidable," says Professor Mueller.

2 CEfTTER HISTORY

The Population Studies Center of the University of public health orientation while the Population Studies Michigan has three objectives: 1) to foster basic research Center has a demographic and socioeconomic focus. on the determinants and consequences of population Through 1976 the Center received continuing support trends and patterns; 2) to train American and foreign from the Ford Foundalion, which in 1977 provided an en­ students in population studies and demography; and 3) to dowment fund to the Center. Funds for general operations help governments and non-profit organizations establish have also come from grants by the Rockefeller Foundalion demographic programs, especially in developing countries. and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Established in 1961 with a grant from the Ford Founda­ Development (NICHD). Individual research projects are tion, (he Population Studies Center reflects a long tradi­ supported by a variety of governmental and private tion of interest in population and human ecology within sources, notably the NICHD, the National Science Foun­ the Sociology Department that dales back to the early dation, and the Agency for International Developmeni. 1930's. Especially instrumental in the rounding of the Since 1979, ihe Andrew W. Mellon Foundation has pro- Center was Professor Ronald Freedman, a member of the vided money to support assistant pro(cssqF-[evel appojni- Sociology Department, who served as its first director. menBno^irTe~Cenle7^g^sTaff. Funds for the 'support of Since 1965 the Center has been one of [he three com­ Center students come from two main sources: 1) a grant ponents of the University of Michigan Population Pro­ from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundalion to sup­ gram, which also includes the ReproductiveEndocrinolog y port the lrainTng~"oT'sTu^ world, Program, a part of the Medical School, and the Popula­ and 2) two NICHD training grants (one in sociology and tion Planning Program, a part of the School of Public one in economics) to support American students. Health. The latter two components have a bio-medical and

Center students in 1979 review disiribuiion of educationalattainment in large metropolitan areas. Picturedfrom leftto right: Vasantha Kandiah, Osnian\'ur, RogerBrown, Ved Sharma.and Melissa Clark.

3 RESEARCH

Research Facilities suses of 1900 to 1980. Susan Van Eck serves as librarian with half-time assistance from Kathleen Duke. During the The Center has no centrally directed research program; past year they have cataloged most of the previously un- instead, research reflects the interests of the professional cataloged items, developed a subject classification system staff and doctoral candidates. Our purpose is to provide to represent this specialized collection, and now are engag­ facilities and services which enable individuals lo work ef­ ed in collaboration with the data processing section to fectively on the problems of their own choosing. To this facilitate computerized searching of the library's holdings end, the Center has expanded its data processing section and automated production of catalog cards for new items. and the reference collection. The data processing facilities are headed by J. Michael Coble and Albert Anderson; other members of the pro­ gramming and data processing staff are Fran Cartford, Amy Hsu and Linda Rentfro. All computing work is chan­ nelled through the University of Michigan Computing Center. The Center's library of data files has grown to over Abstracts of Current Research 750 reels of magnetic tape. The data processing section has four hard-copy com­ puter terminals and seven "intelligent" CRT terminals for The research at the Center reflects, in the main, the cur­ interactive processing and analysis of data, with plans to rent interests of the staff, and as such is difficult to sub­ install more. A data station with line printer allows for the sume under a few headings. Nevertheless, much of the printing of larger quantities of output on-site. A portable research may be seen to fall under seven categories. Fertili­ terminal allows for the preparation of data files and pro­ ty, Population Mobility and Distribution, and Method­ grams outside the physical confines of the Center. A word ology have characterized much of the Center's activity; in processor is used for the preparation of texts and editing recent years it has become useful to specify and extend this manuscripts and correspondence. The Center now has the classification to include: Historical Demography, Eco­ capacity for interactive processing of data sets containing nomic-Demographic Interactions, Marriage and Family hundreds of thousands of case records. A remote data con­ Structure, and Social-Demographic Interactions. centrator allows connection of Center lerminals 10 the The first category includes studies of the social and Michigan Computing Center over a single high-speed line, economic consequences and causes of fertility levels and thus avoiding delays that normally occur through changes, and incorporates studies of attitudes and values telephone connections. Much of this equipment has been related to fertility. Research on fertility and family plan­ acquired through a grant from the National Science Foun­ ning has been carried out for a number of developing dation. countries as well as for the United States. Increasing atten­ With readier access to the computer facilities of the tion has been paid to changing nuptiality patterns which University of Michigan, the computer skills of the support influence fertility levels, and studies with this focus will be staff are developing rapidly. Under the guidance of Fran found under Marriage and Family Structure. Other fertili­ Cartford, the secretarial staff is being introduced to the ty studies with an historical-demographic focus are includ­ text processing facilities available on-line through the ed with the Historical Demography category. Many fertili­ University system. ty studies emphasize the role of income, assets, or other The reference collection at the Center has developed in economic variables. These, along with studies of other response to the data and research needs of individual staff economic-demographic relationships, appear under members rather than attempting to cover the entire area of Economic-Demographic Interactions. Similarly, studies population studies. At present it consists of over 5,800 which focus on the interrelations between social volumes plus journals, United Nations publications, characteristics and demographic variables other than fer­ selected reprints and foreign materials. Over half of the tility are included under the Social-Demographic Interac­ collection consists of volumes from the U.S. decennial cen­ tions category.

4 The second area of research, Population Mobility and Population and Demography of the National Academy of Distribution, includes studies of migration, of socio­ Sciences. The Population Council is sponsoring a con­ economic, racial and ethnic patterns of residential location tinuation and extension of this research with a goal to pro­ and school composition, as well as the relation of attitudes duce a more comprehensive and detailed study of deter­ and behavior to location. minants of fertility in Thailand during the last decade and A portion of the research at the Center is of necessity a half. Thailand is unusual among developing countries in methodological, as the staff seeks to refine existing tech­ combining a dramatic decline in fertility with an abun­ niques or develop new tools in pursuing a given substantive dance of data on reproductive behavior and fertility deter­ problem. Current methodological research, including minants. techniques of estimation, that does not clearly fit into any This past year the focus of investigation was proximate of the other six substantive areas is shown here. determinants (especially nuptiality, infant feeding prac­ The remaining pari of this section is a collection of tices, and contraceptive behavior). Continuation of the abstracts describing basic research underway at the Center research will examine village-level contrasts in fertility during 1981-1982, and a list by author of the staff publica­ behavior, and relative role of husbands and wives in tions for the same period. fertility-related decisions, role of organized family plan­ ning programs, the social, cultural and material environ­ ment as it relates to fertility, and the interaction between social norms and family limitation behavior as a process FERTILITY accounting for rapid diffusion of family planning prac­ tices. This will be done by analyzing existing data from more than 10 surveys conducted in the last 15 years, ob­ Taiwan; A Profile of Mortality and Fertility in Taiwan, taining additional information through collection of 1905-1940 village-level data, review of existing studies, and conduc­ Neil G. Bennett and Yat-Ming Siu, a PSC trainee, are ting a small number of in-depth interviews with a selected evaluating the quality of Taiwanese vital registration and sample. The researchers will thus bring together a large census data for the period from 1905 to 1940. From the number of complementary data sets bearing on fertility data, they are estimating the levels and trends in fertility and integrate the results into a single coherent study. The and mortality during this interval. major work will be done at Chulalongkorn University dur­ ing Dr. Knodel's sabbatical year. Taiwan; The Changing Family Network and Fertility in Taiwan Thailand; Availability of Family Planning Services in This research is a joint project between Ronald Freed­ Rural Thailand man, Deborah Freedman and Arland Thornton from the Barbara Entwisle and Albert Hermalin, in collaboration Population Studies Center and Dr. Ming-ChengChan g of with Bangkok colleagues Peerasit Kamnuansilpa of the the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning, National Institute of Development Administration and assisted in the earlier phases by Lolagene C. Coombs of the Aphichat Chamratrithirong of Mahidol University, are Center. The project aims to analyze how the changing mix carrying out a series of analyses to trace the implications of of traditional and modern elements in the family are availability of family planning services in rural Thailand. related to reproductive behavior. The project began with The investigators have developed a multilevel model link­ an island-wide KAP survey in 1980 which included a block ing actual availability of services, perceived availability of of questions on the family. Following some exploratory in­ services, and contraceptive use. Based on data from the vestigation of four villages by Taiwanese anthropologists, Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (CPS) of 1981, they have a subsample of about 250 families selected from the KAP found that actual availability (a village-level variable) in­ survey were interviewed. For this intensive interview the creases the probability of contraceptive use (an individual- wife was reimerviewed, and interviews were also taken level variable) and heightens the effect of a desire for no with the husband and his mother. The interviews were more children on the probability of contraceptive use. either in one of the five largest cities or in the rural area. They have also found little support thus far for the notion The field work for this intensive phase was done in the fall that prior experience with a particular contraceptive of 1981 and the early winter of 1982. The detailed coding method affects the perceived availability of that method. and tape preparation proceeded in the spring. NICHD pro­ Dr. Entwisle has been a post-doctoral fellow under a grant vided funding. to the Center from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.

Thailand: A Comprehensive Study of Determinants of United States: Medical and Demographic Factors in Infer­ Fertility Levels and Change in Thailand tility in the United States Professor John Knodel, in collaboration with Bangkok Neil Bennett is collaborating with Ha Maslar of the researchers Aphichat Chamratrithirong of Mahidol University of Michigan's Reproductive Endocrinology University and Nibhon Debavalya of Chulalongkorn Program on a subject which examines the medical and University and PSC graduate student Napaporn demographic determinants of infertility. By accumulating Chayovan, recently completed a detailed study of fertility and analyzing data from many university-based infertility trends, differentials and proximate determinants of Thai clinics around the country, they hope to add to the fertility. The project was sponsored by the Committee on knowledge of the etiology of involuntary sterility.

5 United States: Intergenerational Consequences of Fertility Cross-Cultural: Fertility Determinants in VOC Countries Behavior With a grant from the National Research Council, Arland Thornton and Deborah S. Freedman continue David Goldberg is studying fertility determinants in several their extensive analysis of data obtained from the mothers countries participating in the Value of Children studies: In­ (sixth wave) and from their 18 year old children in the 18th donesia, Philippines. Taiwan and the United Stales. Data year of a longitudinal study of a sample of mothers from these countries will be combined wiih other data seis originally living in the Detroil metropolitan area. One from Taiwan, Turkey, and Mexico to enable him to ex­ study documented altitudes concerning marriage, remain­ amine the effects of a wide range of measures thai seek to ing single, and divorce, including some indicators of define sex role status, time constraint, and normative changes in ihese attitudes over time. Although most of the signals on fertility behavior and values. The work is 18 year olds stated that they did plan to marry at some scheduled for completion in the fall of 1982. time, a substantial majority of them accepted the idea of remaining single as a reasonable life style and would not be Cross-Cultural: Determinants of Fertility Regulation significantly bothered if things turned out so that they did In connection with a National Academy of Sciences pro­ not marry. Although Americans still appear to value mar­ ject to review theory and research pertaining to the deter­ riage, they are increasingly accepting of a variety of life minants of fertility in developing couniries, Albert Her­ styles. malin has been reviewing models and measurements used Another study using the same daia documented the in studying the process of fertility regulation, particularly greater completed fertility of women who began childbear­ the concepts of motivaiion and costs. A critical essay on ing al an early age and examined what characteristics were the topic is being prepared for the National Academy for associated with ihe likelihood of being young at first birth. inclusion in their final report. A methodological paper set forth strategies used in this study which the investigators believe accounted for the Cross-Cultural: Forecasting Fertility in Post Transitional continuing high response rates through the 18 years of the Societies study. Robert Kleinbaum has submitied a research proposal to Another study examined the effects of levels of income NICHD to develop methods of forecasting age-specific on the fertility behavior of ihese couples. Although many fertility rates in the United States and Western Europe. He respondents cite economic reasons for downsizing their hopes to use methods stemming from recent advances in families, husband's income itself did not make a mean­ the statistical literature, specifically the development of ingful contribution to decisions about family size. Stein, Ridge and Bayesian estimators used in conjunction Studies also are being conducted of determinants of with advanced time series models. divorce behavior, of how adolescents form their aspira­ Scholars engaged in fertility forecasting are presently tions for material goods, and of achievement goals and divided into two camps. One group, led by Richard motivations of young persons. NICHD is supporting this Easterlin, expects fertility rates to rise as children from the work. birth-dearth cohorts enter the prime reproductive ages. The second school, led by William Butz and Michael Cross-Cultural: Comparative Analysis of World Fertility Ward, predicts a continuation of low fertility rates as Survey Data female labor force participation rates and female wages With funds provided by the National Institute of Child continue their secular increase. The Easterlin hypothesis is Health and Human Development, the National Academy difficult to test, but several researchers have cast serious of Sciences and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, this doubt on its validity. Considering the lack of theoretical study employs a multilevel approach to the analysis of guidance, Kleinbaum believes that forecasts of fertility micro and macro mechanisms responsible for varying fer­ which use recent advances in statistics should be tility patterns across social groups, within and across developed. societies. It involves the full collaboration of Center Starting with the work of Stein in 1956, James and Stein researchers Barbara Entwisle, Albert Hermalin and (1965), and given further impetus by Efron and Moris William Mason. The invesiigators have devised a cohort- (1973 and 1975), considerable work has been done in specific model of fertility behavior suitable for WFS data developing estimation procedures for prediction. Lee and which distinguishes three components of the fertility pro­ McDonald's work has pointed out the power of time series cess: onset, early fertility, and later fertility. The model methods in forecasting fertility. Kleinbaum intends to specifies how socioeconomic characteristics of couples, merge the two approaches, giving special attention to such as education and residence, affect each aspect of the developing models of fertility rates that imply cycles driven fertility process. It is expected lhat the nature of ihe rela­ by changes in the age structure of the population. tions between socioeconomic factors and the components of the fertility process will vary from country lo country. The investigators use macro indicators, such as family planning program effort and per capita income, to explain between-country variability in the parameters of the micro model. Preliminary analysis, based on a single cohort from 15 WFS countries, supports ihe multilevel approach pro­ posed and developed by Entwisle, Hermalin and Mason.

6 POPULATION MOBILITY in order to evaluate how closely the migration stream com­ AND DISTRIBUTION ponents, their determinants and projected future conse­ quences for large metropolitan areas in other industrialized United States: Migration and Redistribution: SMSA nations compare with migration processes that are now af­ Determinants fecting large metropolitan areas in the U.S. The cross- Funded by NICHD, William H. Frey's study compares national migration data will be obtained from the censuses the residential mobility and migration dynamics of city- and the population registers of the respective countries. suburban redistribution and population deconcentration The research will examine the validity of claims that the across the 65 largest U.S. SMSAs. It employs migration post-1970 migration processes which are contributing to stream data from the U.S. Census, Current Population declining growth in large U.S. metropolitan areas and to Survey and Annual Housing Survey. Assistance in this population losses in their central cities are subject to research was rendered by Center trainee Mark Langberg. period-specific influences that are affecting similar conse­ In a collaborative paper, Dr. Frey and Professor Frances quences on large metropolitan areas in other developed E. Kobrin of Brown University found that neither trends countries. toward smaller, childless and primary individual households, nor the propensity to choose a central city METHODOLOGY destination over the 1955-1975 period will yield a signifi­ cant increase in the household populations of declining U.S.S.R.: Adult Mortality and Overstatement of Age in central cities. the Soviet Union, 1959-1970 In another paper, Dr. Frey combined this study's in- Neil G. Bennett and a colleague from Princeton Univer­ trametropolitan city-suburb projection framework with sity, Lea Keil Garson, have attempted to estimate the level the muliiregion projection methodology developed by Dr. of mortality in the Soviet Union and various regions within Andrei Rogers of I1ASA in Austria, to show that there is the country for the period 1959 to J 970. They found the no projected "return to the city" movement in either the true expectation of life and the number of centenarians in Detroit, Atlanta, or Houston SMSAs. the USSR to have been greatly overestimated by the of­ ficial Soviet figures. Using a method developed by Bennett United States: Regional and Metropolitan Growth and and Samuel Preston, they were able to circumvent the (up Decline in the United States until now) prohibitive problem of the unorthodox interval In a joint project commissioned by the National Com­ length between Soviet censuses (in this case, 11 years), and mittee for Research on the 1980 Census, William H. Frey thus derive adequate estimates of the levels of mortality. and Professor Alden Speare, Jr., of Brown University, plan to analyze new patterns of regional and in- United States: Black/White Crossover Mortality in the trametropolitan growth and decline in the U.S. during the United States decade from 1970 to 1980, and contrast these with patterns Dr. Neil Bennett has submitted a grant proposal to the which characterized redistribution in the U.S. during the National Institutes of Health to be considered for a New period from 1935-1970. The investigators will employ Investigator Research Award. The study, if funded, will migration and population change data from various U.S. begin in the spring of 1983. It focuses on crossover mor­ Census and vital registration sources, including the series tality in the United States (where blacks have higher mor­ of 1940, 1950, I960, 1970 and 1980 public use sample files tality rates than whiles until about age 75, after which their distributed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. relative positions switch). With a recently developed array of techniques, he hopes to determine whether the crossover United States: Analyses of Residential Segregation phenomenon is actual or, rather, a function of differential Professor Albert Simkus' research on residential age misstatement between the races. segregation involves developing segregation indices ap­ propriate for utilizing cluster-based sample survey data in United States: Local Population Projections and Time measuring residential segregation. He is developing pro­ Series Studies posals to support this methodological component of the David Goldberg is beginning a project to develop research and for a study of changes in socioeconomic substantively based local population projections. He is residential segregation in the United States between 1940 also involved in two lime series studies: one of college and 1980. enrollment in the United States, and one of demand for automobiles. All three are scheduled to be underway in the Cross-Cultural: Metropolitan Migration in Europe and fall of 1982. North America William H. Frey has a research proposal pending before Cross-Cultural: Evaluation of Family Planning Programs NICHD to: 1) assemble a set of comparably defined Through Multi-Level Analysis migration data for the largest metropolitan areas in The availability of data on the characteristics of in­ Europe, Canada, and the U.S. (ihose with populations ex­ dividuals obtained through surveys, coupled with informa­ ceeding one million) that will permit an examination of tion on community characteristics and the structure of the migration stream components of core-periphery redistribu­ family planning program in each community, permit the tions and metropolitan population change that occurred employment of multi-level analysis for assessing the role of over the course of the 1970s, and 2) to analyze these data program factors in contraceptive use and fertility. Albert

7 Hermalin and Barbara Entwisle have been developing the 82-18, "Specifications and Implementation of Age, application of this strategy to a number of key issues in Period, and Cohort Models," develop methods of in­ family planning evaluation. They are also adapting this cluding identifiable interactions in the accounting strategy to cross-cultural analysis of family planning pro­ framework, present new results on specification bias for a gram effects by combining data from the World Fertility variety of situations involving grouped data, provide a Survey with information on the level of development and framework for deciding on the purpose of cohort analysis, family planning program characteristics of each country. and discuss erroneous objections to age-period-cohort A preliminary outline of these strategies was presented by analysis often put forward. Dr. Hermalin at the U.N. Third Expert Group Meeting on Methods of Measuring the Impact of Family Planning Cross-Cultural: The Statistics of Multi-Level Analysis Programs on Fertility, in Geneva in April 1982. William Mason and George Wong of the Statistics Department of the University of Michigan and the Sloan- Cross-Cultural: Improved Methods of Short-Term Keltering Memorial Institute are developing maximum Population Projection likelihood estimators for hyperparameter models in which In preparation by Neil Bennett and Robert Kleinbaumi s second-level parameters are modelled by a linear structure a proposal to develop means to improve the accuracy of using measured data. This work, partially sponsored by short-term projections of national populations. A major the NICHD, provides a statistical framework for multi­ portion of the research will be devoted to the study of age level or contextual analysis. Its immediate application isi n patterns in mortality. By taking into account trends in the Entwisle-Hermalin-Mason project on the comparative cohort, as well as period, mortality in countries with ac­ analysis of fertility. In the basic conceptual framework of curate data, they will be developing models which will at­ that project there are two levels of structured variability — tempt the short-term forecast of age-specific mortality the micro or individual level, and the macro or country rates. level. For each macro unit a generalized linear model can be fit to the micro observations. At the same time, a macro Cross-Cultural: The Suitability of 1960s KAP Surveys for model is specified and estimated, using the micro Comparative Analysis parameters as the response variables. The Mason-Wong Barbara Entwisle, Albert Hermalin and William Mason statistical models enable this estimation to be carried out will examine the suitability for comparative analysis of efficiently. Albert Anderson is programming the various surveys of contraceptive Knowledge, Attitudes, and Prac­ statistical models. tice (KAP) undertaken during the 1960s. The goal of the research is to supplement the World Fertility Survey(WFS ) and other recent surveys with data from the extant KAP surveys of an earlier period. The availability of two cross- sections of survey data will make possible a wide range of analyses whose general purpose is to study the deter­ ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC minants of fertility change. Preliminary assessment of the INTERACTIONS number of extent surveys was encouraging, and a formal feasibility study will be carried out with the support of the United States: Time Allocations of Married Workers in the Population Council. United States,1965-1970 With Martha Hill of the University of Michigan Institute Cross-Cultural: Methodological and Substantive In­ for Social Research, Deborah Freedman has investigated vestigations in Cohort A nalysis Lhesubstantia l shifts between 1965 and 1970 in the amount Professor William Mason, sponsored variously by the of work done by housewives, married workingwome n and National Science Foundation, the Office of Naval married working men. Housewives have substantially Research, and NICHD, has been involved for the past decreased the amount of time spent on housework. Mar­ three years in research concerning formal statistical ried working women also have decreased their total work developments in age-period-cohort (accounting time, mostly through a decrease in hours spent in market framework) modelling, as well as substantive explorations work. Married men, too, work less than formerly, having to assess the properties and usefulness of the general reduced their hours in market work. By 1975 the amount framework. Mason and former PSC student Herb Smith of total work lime (housework plus market work) of mar­ (now with Rockefeller), in PSC Research Report No. ried working women and married men was almost iden­ 81-15, "Age-Period-Cohort Analysis and the Study of tical. The National Science Foundation provided partial Deaths from Pulmonary Tuberculosis," illustrate what funding. they take to be the appropriate kind of conceptual and substantive sensitivity necessary for adequate use of the ac­ United States: The Effects of Language Ability on Earn­ counting framework. They show how the framework can ings and Occupation of Immigrants in the United States be employed to test hypotheses, given a relative lack of ap­ Robert Kleinbaum, assisted by Center trainee Sherrie propriate measured substantive variables. They also il­ Kossoudji, is investigating the importance of language lustrate empirically the use of interactions above and ability in determining the labor market experience of im­ beyond age, period and cohort terms in the specification. migrants in the United States. The data being used are Professor Stephen Fienberg of Carnegie-Mellon Univer­ from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education, a survey sity and Professor Mason, in PSC Research Report No. of over half a million individuals that contains detailed in-

8 formation on language ability, employment, wages and topics include the employment of women, the changing assets. Most of the research in (his field has concentrated nature of adolescence, stability and change in household solely on Hispanics and ignored the effects of different structure, demographic changes (especially in nuptiality labor markets. A primary goal of this research is to ex­ and fertility), and the changing living arrangements of the amine the importance of language ability for as many im­ aged. migrant groups as possible and to ascertain differences be­ tween local labor markets.

HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY SOCIAL-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONS Germany: Population Dynamics During the Demographic Transition Hungary: Historical Changes in Social Mobility in The National Institutes of Health have sponsored Pro­ Hungary fessor John Knodel's two-year study on the early stages of Professor Albert Simkus' work on changes in Hun­ the demographic transition as it occurred in rural Ger­ garian social mobility is directed at describing the ways in many, using data from 14village scoverin gth e period from which a regime of social mobility can be transformed the early eighteenth to the early twentieth centuries. through the processes of economic development and Evidence from (hestud y clearly points to an increase in the radical political change. These analyses involve fitting level of natural fertility, perhaps due to improving nutri­ models of change to retrospective survey data on labor tion, changes in relations between the sexes, or changes in force life-histories. The topics being studied include inler- extent and nature of women's participation in economic and intragenerational social mobiity, assortative marriage, activities. Attempts to limit family size before reaching changes in labor force structure, and women's labor force some target number of offspring were an important factor participalion. This work is partially funded through a in the decline of fertility, but changes in birth spacing were Rackham faculty research grant and fellowship. not. Dr. Knodel found substantial variations across villages, even neighboring villages, most notably in the Hungary and Ireland: Comparative Change in Social timing and emergence of deliberate family limitation. Mobility in Hungary and Ireland An interesting interaction between two trends was evi­ Professor Albert Simkus is also studying cross-national dent, in that the increased ability to have children differences in social mobility in Hungary and Ireland. counteracted the attempt to limit family size for at least Based on retrospective reports of occupational residential part of the nineteenth century. Changes in age at marriage mobility for national samples of persons in both countries had little effect on the fertility decline and typically in 1973, this study deals with comparative processes of operated in the opposite direction at the end of the nine­ change in two countries having relatively similar levels of teenth century. Reductions in child mortality over the age economic development. of one year generally preceded improvements in infant mortality rates, although there was little overall improve­ United States: Social Indicators of Political Alienation in ment in the age 0-15 mortality rates until the last quarter of A merica the nineteenth century. In collaboration with Professor James S. House of the Surprisingly, there is little evidence of any relationship University of Michigan's Sociology Department and In­ between increasing family limitationan d improvements in stitute for Social Research, Professor William M. Mason is child mortality at the village level, although investigation attempting to delineate the causes and consequences of at the individual family level shows a strong correlation; political alienation in the United States. The project is us­ those couples with favorable experience with child mortali­ ing subjective indicators of alienation available in a time ty seem to have adopted family limitationearlies t and most series of National Election Studies running from 1952 to decisively, while those who had unfavorable experiences 1980. The major emphasis in the research so far has been were slower to adopt limitation where they adopted it at on the conceptual adequacy of the subjective indicators, all. Local data of the type used in this project are in­ and the results appear in Population Studies Center valuable in expanding the knowledge of behavioral pro­ Research Report No. 81-11. cesses underlying the demographic transition. Other areas receivingattentio n are (I) the issue-altitude Professor Knodel is preparing a monograph on determinants of political alienation, (2) the conceptual demographic behavior in the past, based on his studies of basis of over-time variation in alienation—whether cohort historical German village populations. or period, (3) the nature of variability over time in the socioeconomic determinants of political alienation. The United States: The Organization of Households and the ultimate goal of the research is to devise a conceptually Individual Life Course in 19th Century Los Angeles sound and empirically adequate time-series model of Professor Karen Mason, jointly with Professor Barbara political alienation. Center trainee Joan Kahn, and Laslett of the University of Southern California, isanalyz ­ sociology students CedricHerrin g and Richard Mero, both ing data for Los Angeles from the U.S. Census of the Institute for Social Research, have assisted in the manuscripts of 1850-1900 in order to answer a series of work, funded by the National Science Foundation. related questions about household organization and the in­ dividual life course in a period that witnessed rapid United States: Social Inequality and the Fall of Mortality population growth and economic development. Specific in the U.S., 1910-1970

9 United States: Socioeconomic Measurement in Mortality (Samuel H. Preston and Neil G. Bennett) "A Census- Research: An Examination of U.S. Data in the Twentieth Based Method for Estimating Adult Mortality," Research Century Report No. 81-16, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, December 1981. Cross-Cultural: Patterns of Differential Mortality During to appear in Population Studies 37(1), March 1983. Rapid Economic Development Sex Selection of Children (editor). New York: Academic Press, in press. Cross-Cultural: Changes in Income and Occupation (with Andrew Mason) "Decision Making and Sex Selec­ Before Death tion with Biased Technologies," Research Report No. Miriam Kadin, with the support of the NICHD, is con­ 82-21, Population Studies Center, Universityo f Michigan, ducting a number of related projects on the socioeconomic March 1982. determinants of mortality. These are wide-ranging, treating methodological, theoretical and substantive con­ in Sex Selection of Children, edited by Neil G. Bennett. cerns. Both the United States and less developed countries New York: Academic Press, in press. (Sri Lanka, Taiwan) serve as areas of analysis. Although (with Gilbert Rozman) "Prefectural Variations in current research is restricted to macro analyses, Dr. Kadin Szechwan: Population Growth, Mean Household Size, plans to include survey data in the near future. and Sex Ratios," in Population and Marketing Settlements in Ch'ing China, by Gilbert Rozman. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1982, pp. 139-143. (with Shiro Horiuchi) "Life Table Construction from In­ Publications complete Death Registration Data," Research Report No. 82-26, Population Studies Center, Universityo f Michigan, June 1982. This listing includes papers written by members of the Center staff (as authors or co-authors) which have been Lolagene C. Coombs published or accepted for publication since the Center's (with T.H. Sun) "Familial Values in a Developing Society: last annual report, Fall 1981. Publications of student ap­ A Decade of Change in Taiwan," Social Forces 59(4): prentices are listed in the Training section. 1229-1255, Summer 1981. Listings of PSC Research reports, Center reprint series (with M.C. Chang) "Do Husbands and WivesAgree ? Fer­ and other available publications by the staff are circulated tility Attitudes and Later Behavior," Population and En­ twice yearly (Fall and Spring) to over 500 individuals, vironment 4(2): 109-127, Summer 1981. libraries, and agencies working in the population field or indicating an interest in demographic research and re­ Lee E. Edlef.sen questing inclusion on the Center's mailing list. Approx­ imately 600 publications were mailed out in the 1981-82 "An Investigation of the Timing Pattern of academic year in response to some 156 requests from peo­ Childbearing," Population Studies 35(3): 375-386, No­ ple in the United States and in 32 foreign countries. In ad­ vember 1981. dition to requests for publications from this list, the Center "The Effects of Sample Truncation on Estimates of Fer­ staff answered many questions about research materials tility Relationships," Research in Population Economics, that may be useful to researchers in the United States and Vol. 3, edited by Julian L. Simon. Greenwich,Conn. : JAI other countries. Press, 1981, pp. 41-66. "The Comparative Statics of Hedonic Price Functions and Other Non-Linear Constraints," Econometrica 49(6): 1501-1520, November 1981. (with S.S. Lieberman) "The Use of Aggregate Data in Economic-Demographic Analysis," Research and Policy Issues in the Analysis of Fertility Behavior in Developing Countries, edited byG. Simmons and G.M. Farooq, forth­ coming.

Barbara Entwisle "CBR Versus TFR in Cross-National Fertility Research," Demography 18(4): 635-643, November 1981. (with Albert 1. Hermalin and William M. Mason) Neil G. Bennett "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility Behavior: A Processual Approach Using World Fertility Survey Data," Neil G. Bennett Research Report No. 82-17, Population Studies Center, (with Shiro Horiuchi) "Estimating the Completeness of University of Michigan, January 1982. Death Registration in a Closed Population," Population (Albert I. Hermalin and Barbara Entwisle, editors) The Index 47(2): 207-221, Summer 1981. Role of Surveys in the Analysis of Family Planning Pro-

10 grams. Liege, Belgium: Ordina Editions, 1982. tional Encyclopedia of Population, edited by John Ross. (Albert I. Hermalin and Barbara Entwisle) "Surveys and New York: Macmillan/Free Press, 1982, pp. 258-266. Their Use in Family Planning Analysis," in The Role of (with Ming-Cheng Chang and Te-Hsiung Sun) Surveys, in ihe Analysis of Family Planning Programs, "Household Composition, Extended Kinship and Re­ edited by Albert I. Hermalin and Barbara Entwisle. Liege: production in Taiwan: 1973-1980," forthcoming in Ordina, 1982, pp. 3-22. Population Studies, March 1983. (with C.R. Winegarden) "Fertility and Pension Programs in LDCs: A Model of Mutual Reinforcement," Economic William H. Frey Development and Cultural Change, forthcoming. (Larry H. Long and William H. Frey) "Migration andSet­ (with Albert 1. Hermalin and William M. Mason) tlement; 14. The United States," International Institute "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility Behavior in for Applied Systems Analysis Research Report, Laxen- Developing Nations: Theory and Initial Results," Final burg, Austria: IIASA, 1982. Report to the National Academy of Sciences, not yet (with Frances E. Kobrin) "Changing Families and Chang­ published. ing Mobility: Their Effect on the Central City," Demography 19(3), August 1982. Reynolds Farley "The White Flight Controversy: Policy Implications," David Goldberg Research in Sociology of Education and Socialization, (H. Smith, S. Vargas, A. Beck and D. Goldberg) "The 93 Vol. 3. Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press, 1982, pp. 207-232. Cent Husband: Income Returns Among Mcxican- (Suzanne M. Bianchi, Reynolds Farley and Daphne Spain) Amercians in Detroit," Proceedings of the American "Racial Inequalities in Housing: An Examination of Re­ Statistical Association. Social Statistics Section, 1981. pp. cent Trends," Demography 19(1): 37-51, February 1982. 412-417. (Patricia Taylor, Patricia A. Gwartney-Gibbs, and Reynolds Farley) "The Changing Structure of Earnings In­ Albert Hermalin equality, 1960-1978," submitted for publication. "Issues in the Comparative Analysis of Techniques for Evaluating Family Planning Programmes," in Evaluation of the Impact of Family Planning Programs on Fertility: Deborah Freedman Sources of Variance. New York: United Nations, 1982. (with Arland Thornton and Sirilaksana Chulicul) "A "Some Cautions in the Use and Interpretation of Regres­ Premarital Pregnancy: Its Effect on Investments and sion Analysis for the Evaluation of Family Planning Pro­ Returns to Human Capital," Research Report No. 81-12, grammes," in Evaluation of the Impact of Family Plan­ Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, ning Programs on Fertility: Sources of Variance. New August 1981. York: United Nations, 1982. (with Arland Thornton) "Income and Fertility: The "Techniques for Measuring Family Planning Program Ef­ Elusive Relationship," Demography 19(1): 65-78, Feb­ fects on Fertility," in International Encyclopedia of ruary 1982. Population, edited by John Ross. New York: Mac­ (with Arland Thornton and Donald Camburn) "Obtaining millan/Free Press, 1982, pp. 228-235. Respondent Cooperation in Family Panel Studies," (editor with Barbara Entwisle) "The Role of Surveys in the Sociological Methods and Research 11(1), August 1982. Analysis of Family Planning Programmes." Liege: (with Arland Thornton and Lynn Wallisch) "Age at First lUSSP/Ordina Editions, 1982. Birth and Family Size: Evidence from a Longitudinal (with B. Entwisle) "Surveys and Their Use in Family Plan­ Study," Social Biology, August 1982, forthcoming. ning Analysis," in The Role of.Surveys in the Analysis of Family Planning Programmes, " edited by A. Hermalin Ronald Freedman and B. Entwisle. Leige: Ordina, 1982, pp. 3-22. (with Siew-Ean Khoo and Bondan Supraptilah) "Modern (Barbara Entwisle, Albert I. Hermalin and William M. Contraceptive Use in Indonesia: A Challenge to Conven­ Mason) "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility tional Wisdom," World Fertility Survey (London), Scien­ Behavior: A Processual Approach Using World Fertility tific Report No. 20, March 1981 (published March 1982). Survey Data," Research Report No. 82-17, Population (with John Casterline) "Nuptiality and Fertility in Studies Center, University of Michigan, January 1982. Taiwan," in Nuptiality and Fertility: Proceedings of the (with Judith A. Seltzer and Ching-Hsiang Lin) "Transi­ /USSP Seminar held in Bruges, January 1979, edited by tions in the Effect of Family Size on Female Educational L.T. Ruzicka. Leige, Belgium:Ordin a Editions, 1982, pp. Attainment: The Case of Taiwan," Comparative Educa­ 61-99, tion Review 26(2): 254-270, June 1982. "Introduction," in Nuptiality and Fertility: Proceedings "Using Individual and Areal Data in the Evaluation of of the IUSSP Seminar held in Bruges, January 1979,edite d Family Planning Programs," Proceedings of Third UN by L.T. Ruzicka. Liege, Belgium: Ordina Editions, 1982, Expert Group Meeting on Methods of Measuring the Im­ pp. 1-6. pact of Family Planning Programs on Fertility, forthcom­ "Theories of Fertility Decline: A Reappraisal," in Interna­ ing.

11 "The Relaiion of Feriilily Desires to Contraceptive Use: also issued as Research Report No. 82-22, Population Interpreting Changes Over Time and Place," Proceedings Studies Center, University of Michigan, May 1982. of Third UN Expert Group Meeting on Methods of Measuring the Impact of Family Planning Programs on Karen Oppenheim Mason Fertility, forthcoming. (with V.T. Palan) "Female Employment and Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: The Maternal Role Incompatibility Miriam Kadin Hypothesis Reconsidered," Demography 18(4): 549-575, "Socioeconomic Measurement in Mortality Research: An November 1981. Examination of U.S. Data in the 20th Century," Research partly overlapping version issued as Research Report No. Report No. 82-25, Population Studies Center, University 81-4, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, of Michigan, May 1982. August 1980. "Norms Relating to the Desire for Children," in Deter­ Robert Kleinbaum minants of Fertility in Developing Countries: A Summary "A Note on the Use of Stein Estimators in Forecasting of Knowledge. National Academy of Sciences, 1982, forth­ First Nuptial Confinement," submitted to Demography. coming.

William Mason John Knodel (with Herbert L.Smith ) "Age-Period-Cohort Analysisan d "Remarriage and Marital Fertility in 18th and 19th Cen­ the Study of Deaths from Pulmonary Tuberculosis," in tury Germany: An Exploratory AnalysisBase d on German Analyzing Longitudinal Data for Age, Period and Cohort Village Genealogies," in Marriage and Remarriage in Past Effects, edited by H.H.Winsboroug h and O.D. Duncan. Populations, edited by J. Dupaquier, et al. London: New York: Academic Press, 1982 (in press), Academic Press, 1981, pp. 591-604. also appeared as Research Report No. 81-15, Population "Breastfeeding: Demographic Aspects," in International Studies Center, University of Michigan, September 1981. Encyclopedia of Population, edited by John Ross. New (Barbara Entwisle, Albert I. Hermalin and William M. York: Macmillan/Free Press, 1982, pp. 71-76. Mason) "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility "Natural Fertility: Patterns, Levels, and Trends," in Behavior: A Proccssual Approach Using World Fertility Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries: A Sum­ Survey Data," Research Report No. 82-17, Population mary of Knowledge. " National Academy of Sciences, for­ Studies Center, University of Michigan, January 1982. thcoming. (Stephen E. Fienberg and William M. Mason) "Specifica­ (with Etienne van de Walle) "Fertility Decline: European tion and Implementation of Age, Period, and Cohort Transition," in International Encyclopedia of Population, Models," in Analyzing Longitudinal Data for Age, Period edited by John Ross. New York: Macmillan/Free Press, and Cohort Effects, edited by H.H. Winsborough and 1982, pp. 268-275. O.D. Duncan. New York: Academic Press, 1982 (in press), (Peerasit Kamnuansilpa, Aphichat Chamratrithirong and also appeared as Research Report No. 82-18, Population John Knodel) "Thailand's Continuing Reproductive Studies Center, University of Michigan, January 1982. Revolution: An Update," International Family Planning (Barbara Entwisle, Albert I. Hermalin and William Perspectives 8(2): 51-56, July 1982. Mason) "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility also issued as Research Report No. 82-19, Population Behavior in Developing Nations: Theory and Initial Studies Center, University of Michigan, March 1982. Results:" Washington: National Academy of Sciences, to (with Peerasit Kamnuansilpa and Aphichat Cham­ be published. ratrithirong) "Breastfeeding in Thailand: Data from the 1981 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey," Research Report Fva Mueller 82-20, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, (Barbara Watanabe and Eva Mueller) "A Poverty Profile March 1982. for Rural Botswana," Discussion Paper No. 81-43, to appear in Studies in Family Planning. Population and Human Resources Division, The World "Child Mortality and Reproductive Behavior in German Bank, October 1981. Village Populations in the Past: A Micro-Level Analysis of "The Value and Allocation of Time in Rural Botswana," the Replacement Effect," Population Studies 36(2), July Discussion Paper No. 81-44, Population and Human 1982. Resources Division, The World Bank, November 1981. originally issued as Research Report No. 81-1, Population (with Julie Anderson) "The Economic and Demographic Studies Center, University of Michigan, March 1981. Impact of the Comilla Project in Bangladesh: A Case (with Aphichat Chamratrithirong, Napaporn Chayovan Study," in Case Studies in the Demographic Impact of and Nibhon Debavalya) Fertility in Thailand: Trends, Asian Development Projects, edited by Robin Barlow. Diffferentials, and Proximate Determinants. National Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Center for Research Academy of Sciences, 1982 (forthcoming). on Economic Development, 1982, pp. 1-57. "Demographic Transition in German Villages," in forth­ "The Allocation of Women's Time and its Relation to Fer­ coming volume on European FertilityTransition , edited by tility," in Women's Roles and Population Trends in the Ansley Coale and Susan Watkins. Third World, edited by Richard Anker, et al. London:

12 Croom Helm, 1982, pp. 55-86. (Sherrie Kossoudji and Eva Mueller) "The Economic and Demographic Siaius of Female Headed Households in Rural Botswana," Research Report No. 81-10, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, March 1981. also to appear in Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1983.

Alhcrl Simkus

Albert Simkus

"Socioeconomic Careers and Radical Social Change," in Aging from Birth to Death, Vol. 2, edited by Matilda White Riley. Washington: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1982, pp. 163-180. "Comparative Research on Social Slralification and Mobility," International Journal of Comparative Sociology, November 1981. "Social Mobility in Eastern Europe: How Has State Socialism Made a Difference?" Research Repori No. 81-13, Population Studies Center, Universityo f Michigan, September 1981. "Socialist Structural Transformation and Social Mobility: Hungary 1938-1973," Research Report No. 81-14, Popula­ tion Studies Cenier, University of Michigan, September I98J. "Structural Transformation and Social Mobility: Hungary 1938-1973," American Sociological Review, forthcoming. "Changes in Equality of Educational Altainment in Hungary, 1928-1973," American Sociological Review, forthcoming. TRflininG PROGRfim

Description The Center's unique contribution to student training is practical research experience under the supervision of a professional staff member. Thisapprenticeshi p involves1 2 hours of work per week during the first two years in residence at the Center. During this apprenticeship, The Population Studies Center provided the opportunity students typically work on one of their advisor's research for on-the-job training to 30 graduate students and one projects, or in some cases work on an independent project post-doctoral student during the 1981-82 academic year. under the advisor's supervision, with the expectation of a During the past year, 11 students have completed their joint publication. doctoral requirements and gone on to professional work. Class work for the Ph.D. usually requires five to six The Center emphasizes that it is a training and not a terms for students in Sociology and slightly longer for teaching institute. Graduate students are first admitted to Economics students. It includes at least five of the follow­ either the Sociology or the Economics Department of the ing courses in sociology: Population Problems, Regional University of Michigan before admission to the Center. Population Problems, The Urban Community, Human Courses, both those designed primarily for demography Ecology, Research Methods in Population and Human students and those of a more general interest, are taken Ecology, Advanced Population Methods, Proseminar in under the auspices of the departments, although many of Historical Demography, and Seminar in Population and the demography courses are taught by Center staff Human Ecology, or in economics: Economics of Popula­ members. tion, The Economics of Population Growth, and Seminar The major support for American pre-doctoral students in the Economics of Population. (For a short description comes from a training grant from the National Institute of each course, see "Courses in Demography" on page 21 for Child Health and Human Development. Thesociolog y of this section). Other courses are taken in accord with the training grant supports one post doctoral fellow per year. student's particular interests. By May of their third year, The recipient of the Center's one-year sociologyfellowshi p all Center students are expected to have completed all for 1981-82 was Miriam Kadin, from Brown University. course requirements, preliminary examinations and the Foreign students are largely supported by a grant to the dissertation prospectus. The fourth year is devoted to the Center from the Hewlett Foundation. In addition, some dissertation. During this period the student may also gain students receive support from other sources, including the some leaching experience prior to entering the job market. Ford Foundation; the Rockefeller Foundation; the U.S. In addition, the Center offers the student a number of Department of Labor; the Population Council; the Horace other formal and informal educational experiences. In a H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies, University of series of one-hour noncredit training sessions organized by Michigan; the National Science Foundation; the Barbour J. Michael Coble and Albert Anderson, first year students Fellowships and the Department of Sociology, University learn basic computer techniques and are given the oppor­ of Michigan. tunity to familiarizethemselve s with the Center's libraryo f The goal of the training is to provide students with tapes and programs and their application to problems of substantive and methodological skills that permit indepen­ population analysis. This training is required of all Center dent research on a broad range of problems, working students. either in academic or non-academic settings. Training A part of the program in Economic Demography, sup­ focuses on the technical and substantive research literature ported by a National Institute of Health training grant, is necessary to understand the social and economic causes carried out at the Center in cooperation with the Depart­ and consequences of population size, composition, ment of Economics. Students in economics who are in­ distribution and change, with particular emphasis on the terested in population issues receive demographic training basic demographic processes of mortality, fertility, nup­ through participation in the Center's apprenticeship pro­ tiality and migration. gram and through taking appropriate courses in popula-

14 tion. The Economic Demography Seminar meets at the Professor Richard Freeman of Harvard University gave Center three times a month during the academic year and is an informal Economic Demography seminar in March, attended by both economics and sociology students. It and Nancy Tuma of Stanford also lectured. The South brings in distinguished outside scholars and allows African Institute for Sociological, Demographic and students in the EconomicDemograph y program to present Criminological Research in-Pretoria sent Dr. J.A. Van their research findings in a collegial format. In the 1981-82 Tonder, who consulted with several other American in­ academic year, this seminar was coordinated by Center stitutions as well. Peerasit Kamnuansilpa and Aphichat students Charles Calhounan d Scott Grosse. Some students Chamratrithirong spent two weeks in Ann Arbor con­ also participate in the Survey Research Center summer sulting with John Knodel on their joint research into Thai program, which provides training in various facets of fertility. In June we were visited by John Bongaarts of the survey research. Population Council, who gave an informal seminar while he was here. Students and members of the staff attend weekly infor­ mal seminars at which a staff member, advanced student or visitorreport s on current research activity. Barbara Ent­ wisle coordinated the seminar this year. Seminar titles in­ cluded: "Roman Life Tables;" "Socialist Structural Dissertations Completed1981-8 2 Transformation and Social Mobility in Hungary, 1923-1973;" "Nutrition, Fatness, Puberty and Fertility;" August 1981 Sou-Pen Wei: "The Effect of Family "EconomicPolarization; Is it OccurringWithi n the Black Structure on Sibling Status Achieve­ Community?;" "Modeling Push-Pull Migration;" "Pool­ ment: The Case of Taiwan." ing the Schoolingi n Old Magyaroszag;" and "Population Albert Hermalin,chai r Changes in Villages of Finland." Ronald Freedman, William Mason, Eva Both staff and student offices are housed on the second Mueller, members floor of a large building at the edge of the Universityo f Michigan's central campus. Students and most staff Sou-Pen Wei is at the Computer Science Department at members spend most of their non-classroom time at the Arizona StateUniversity . Center, workingo n current research projects or preparing teaching assignments. Students occasionally publish with November 1981 Osman Nur: "On the Validity of Fertili­ their advisors, and are also encouraged to publish their ty Analysis for Jordan." own research. Student publications are listed separately at Albert Hermalin,chai r the end of this section, although work co-authored with Ronald Freedman, John Knodel, staff members also appears in the Research section. Yuzuru Takeshita, members Dr. Nur returned to Ann Arbor for the month of July 1982 as a visiting scholar from Khartoum, where he is Director Visitors of Educational Statistics for the Sudan Ministry of Educa­ tion and Guidance. Visiting the Center this academic year were represen­ November 1981 Herbert Smith: "Determinants of tatives of a number of universities and population-related Higher Education Enrollment in the organizations in the United States, as well as several United Slates, 1946-1980." representatives of foreign governments and institutions. In David Goldberg and William Mason, August of 1981, PSC hosted a delegation of five popula­ co-chairs tion scientists from the People's Republic of China. They Albert Hermalin, William Peterson, came to visit demographic research centers throughout the members United States, with a view to establish or expand govern­ ment- and university-based population study groups in Dr. Smith has joined the staff of the Rockefeller Founda­ China. lion in New York. In September, Professor Kalevi Rikkinen of the Univer­ sity of Helsinki's Geography Department lectured at PSC December 1981 Robert Kleinbaum: "AnAnalysi s of the during his visit to the University. Dr. Alfred Adewuyi of Wisconsin Time-of-Day Electricity the University of Ife, Nigeria spent two days conferring Pricing Experiment." with colleagues in the Sociology Department and with E. Philip Howrey, chair researchers at the Center. Lee Edlefsen, Hal Varian, Roger Informal seminars were presented in November by Pro­ Wright, members fessor Frances Kobrin of Brown University'sSociolog y Dr. Kleinbaum was appointed a Mellon Research Fellow at Department and by Rose ,Frisch , from Harvard the Population Studies Center of the University of University's Center for Population Studies. Professor Michigan upon his graduation. Waldo Tobler, a geographer from the University of California-Santa Barbara, lectured; Alan Nash visited February 1982 Mark Browning: "The Effect of from Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, to consult Population Growth on Income Growth on the establishment of a population studies facility there. in LDCs."

15 Ronald Lee (Berkeley) and Thomas Ronald Freedman, Karen Oppenheim Weisskopf, co-chairs Mason, EvaMueller , members Saul Hymans, George Simmons, Dr. Millman has been named Assistant Professor of members Sociology at Brown University. Dr. Browning will be Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

February 1982 Susan De Vos: "The Economic OldAg e Security Value ofChildre ni nth e Philip­ pines and Taiwan in the Middle Prospectuses Approved1981-8 2 1970's." Ronald Freedman, chair September 1981 Mark Montgomery: "Sequential Fertili­ Lois Hoffman, Martin Whyte, Meyer ty Choices Under Risk ofChil d Mortali­ Zald, members ty." Dr. DeVo si spresentl y a postdoctoral scholar in Sociology Frank Stafford, chair at the University ofWisconsin-Madison . Lee Edlefsen, Albert Hermalin, E. Philip Howrey, Ronald Lee(Berkeley) , April 1982 Roger L. Brown: "Mental Health and members the Economy: A Disaggregated Mr. Montgomery will be joining Princeton's Economics Analysis." faculty this fall, upon completion of his degree. Ronald Kessler, Chair Duane Alwin, James House, Colin Lof- February 1982 Kathy London: "Geographic Mobility tin, Richard Price, members in the Detroit SMSA." Yale University has awarded Dr. Brown a postdoctoral David Goldberg, chair fellowship in Economics. Reynolds Farley, William Frey, Eva Mueller, members May 1982 Napaporn Chayovan: "A Contextual Analysis of Demographic Phenomena March 1982 Lynn Wallisch: "The Effect of Mater­ in Rural Thailand." nal Employment and Other Family Fac­ Ronald Freedman and John Knodel,co - tors on Mother-Adolescent Relations." chairs Karen O. Mason, chair Albert Hermalin, Yuzura Takeshita, Lois Hoffman, William Mason, Arland members Thornton, members Dr. Chayovan will return this fall to Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Population Studies. May 1982 Muhammad Faour: "Determinants of Female Age at First Marriage in Jordan." May 1982 Hallie Kintner: "The Determinants of Karen O. Mason, chair Infant Mortality inGerman y from 1871 Ronald Freedman, Albert Hermalin, to 1933." Eva Mueller, members John Knodel, chair Albert Hermalin, William Mason, May 1982 Paul P.L. Cheung: "The Temporal George Simmons, members Structure of Pre-Adulthood Life Dr. Kintner is a Research Associate in the Department of Events: The Early Lives of Women in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation at the Universityo f Thailand." Michigan. Albert Hermalin and Rosemary Sarri, co-chairs June 1982 William R. Lavely: "Industrialization Yeheskel Hasenfeld, William Mason, and Household Structure in Rural members Taiwan." Ronald Freedman, chair Albert Hermalin, EvaMueller , Arland Thornton, members Dr. Lavely joined the Population Studies Center staff as Publications andAchievement s ACLS/Mellon Fellow for Chinese Studies upon comple­ tion of his degree. The following lists the individual publications and July 1982 Sara Millman: "Breastfeeding in papers of Center students as well as their collaborative Taiwan: A Study of Change." publications with the professional staff. Also included are John Knodel, chair papers or other presentations at meetings and conferences.

16 John Bauer Scott Grosse "The Fertility Impact of the Mahaweli Ganga Develop­ (John Bauer and Scott Grosse) "Accounting for Fertility ment Project, Sri Lanka," in Case Studies in the Decline in Sri Lanka: Income Redistribution Versus Demographic Impact of Asian Development Projects, Policies Concerned with Basic Human Needs." Paper edited by Robin Barlow. Ann Arbor: University of presented at Annual Meeting of the Population Associa­ Michigan Center for Research on Economic Development, tion of America (San Diego) April 1982. 1982, pp. 101-143. "The 'Moors' of Sri Lanka: Ethnic Accommodation in a (with Scott Grosse) "Accounting for Fertility Decline in Plural Society," Ethnic Groups, forthcoming. Sri Lanka: Income Redistribution Versus Policies Con­ "On the Alleged Antebellum Surge in Wage Differentials: cerned with Basic Human Needs." Paper presented atAn ­ A critique of Williamson and Linden," Journal of nual Meeting of the Population Association of American Economic History 42(2): 413-418, June 1982. (San Diego) April 1982. "The Politics of Family Planning in Maghrib,"Studies in Comparative International Development, forthcoming. Allen Beck "Regime Type and Performance: A Blind Alley? Com­ (Herbert Smith, S. Vargas, Allen Beck and David ment on King," Comparative Political Studies. 14(4): Goldberg) "The 93 Cent Husband: Income Returns 543-548, January 1982. Among Mexican-Americansi n Detroit." Paper presented at Annual Meetingo f the AmericanStatistica lAssociatio n "Rural Development and Retention of the Rural Popula­ (Detroit) August 1981. Social Statistics Section, pp. tion in the Republic of Korea: A Macro-Level Analysis." 412-417. Paper presented at the Conference on Rural Development and Retention of Rural Population in the Countryside of Developing Countries (Ottawa) October 1981. Suzanne Bianchi Household Composition and Racial Inequality. New Patricia Gwartney-Gibbs Brunswick, N.J.:Rutger s University Press, 1981. (Patricia Taylor, Patricia Gwartney-Gibbs and Reynolds Farley) "The Changing Structure of Earnings Inequality, Roger Brown 1960-1978," submitted for publication. "Economic Downturns and Depression: A Disaggregated Sherrie Kossoudji Analysis." Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the Society for the Study of Social Problems (Toronto) August (with Eva Mueller) "The Economic and Demographic 1981. Status of Female Headed Households in Rural Botswana," to appear in Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1983. Napaporn Chayovan Bill Lavely (J. Knodel, A. Chamratrithirong, N. Chayovan and N. Debavalya) Fertility in Thailand: Trends, Differentials and "China's Rural Population Statistics at the Local Level," Proximate Determinants. Washington: NationalAcadem y Population Index, to appear. of Sciences, forthcoming. Mark Montgomery (with John Knodel, A. Chamratrithirong and N. Debavalya) "Summary of Fertility Determinants in Discussant, Contributed Papers on Fertility, Session 2, Thailand." Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the Population Associationo f American Meetings (San Diego) Population Association of America (San Diego) April April 1982. 1982. Herbert Smith Paul Cheung (William Mason and Herbert Smith)"Age-Period-Cohor t (with Walter W. Hudson) "Assessment of Marital Discord Analysis and the Study of Deaths from Pulmonary Tuber­ in Social Work Practice: A Revalidation of the Index of culosis," PSC Research Report 81-15, Population Studies Marital Satisfaction," Journal of Social Service Research Center, University of Michigan, September 1981. 5(1), 1982, to appear. to appear as a chapter inAnalyzing Longitudinal Data for Age, Period, and Cohort Effects, edited by H.H. (with Herbert Smith) "Logistic Regression Models with Winsborough and O.D. Duncan. AcademicPress , 1982(i n Continuous Independent Variables: A Comment on Swaf- press). ford," American Sociological Review 46(6): 946-949, December 1981. (Paul Cheung and Herbert Smith) "Logistic Regression Models with Continuous Independent Variables: A Com­ ment on Swafford," American Sociological Review 46(6): Susan De Vos 946-949, December 1981. "Women's Role Orientations and Expected Fertility: (with S. Vargas, A. Beck and D. Goldberg) "The 93 Cent Evidence from the Detroit Area, 1978," Social Biology Husband: Income Returns Among Mexican-Americans in 27(2): 130-137, Summer 1980, published Summer 1981. Detroit." Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the

17 American Statistical Association (Detroit) August 1981. Makoto Nohara Atoh 1980 Social Statistics Section, pp. 412-417. Director, Division of Population Quality and Human Reproduction Lynn Wallisch Ministry of Health and Welfare (Deborah S. Freedman, Arland Thornton and Lynn Tokyo, Japan Wallisch) "Age at First Birth and Family Size: Evidence ErnestB . Attah 1980 from a Longitudinal Study," SocialBiology, August1982 , Associate Professor (Sociology) to appear. Atlanta University Tattamang ala mR .Balakrishna n 1963 Professor (Sociology) University of Western Ontario Former Students RobertaBarne s 1977 Assistant Professor Department of Textiles and Consumer Economics Typically, upon completion of their training at the University ofMarylan d Center, students obtain employment in academic institu­ SuzanneBianch i 1978 tions. In recent years, however, both business and govern­ Demographer ment have recognized the importance of demographic U.S. Bureau of the Census research to policy making; consequently, more recent Washington, D.C. graduates are accepting non-academic positions both in the Gordons. Bonham 1971 United States and abroad. Of the 11 trainees who Survey Statistician graduated during 1981-82, five took positions in non- Division of Health Interview Statistics academic institutions andsi xwen t to universities. A listo f National Center for Health Statistics the 102 Center trainees who have received Ph.D.'s in Sociology or Economics since the Center's inception in Larry L.Bumpas s 1968 1962 isgive n below. Thevariet y of institutions withwhic h Associate, Center for Demography andEcolog y they are nowaffiliate d gives an overview of the scope of and Professor (Sociology) preparation provided at the Center. University of Wisconsin - Madison In addition to the Ph.D. recipients listed, many students Frederick L.Campbel l 1967 from the U.S.an d abroad have received shorter-term Professor (Sociology) Center training. In all, over 80 former trainees currently University of Washington hold academic positions at about 32 universities in the John Casterline 1979 United States andseve n universities abroad. More than 60 Research Associate, Analysis Division are involved in research in about 18 national, 10 foreign, World Fertility Survey and seven international organizations concerned with London population issues. (Modern mobility complicates any at­ tempt to account foral l thestudent s who have hadtrainin g JosephChami e 1976 at the Center, and thus weacknowledg e that this list may Demographer, Population Division not be complete.) United Nations New York Former Population Studies Center Trainees with a Ph.D. Kim-LoyChee 1981 from the University of Michigan Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Research University of Science Arjun L.Adlakh a 1970 Penang, Malaysia Professor (Biostatistics) and Research Associate Hsiao-Chang Chen 1974 (POPLAB) Visiting Scientist, Family Planning University of North Carolina Evaluation Division John Ellis Anderson 1974 Center for Disease Control Demographer, Family Planning Evaluation Division Atlanta, Georgia Center for Disease Control Atlanta, Georgia SolomonS . P.Ch u 1969 Assistant Professor (Epidemiologyan d Biometry) Richard B.Anke r 1973 School of Public Health Project Director, World Employment Program University of Illinois - Chicago Circle International Labor Organization Geneva, Switzerland Carol Clark 1979 Assistant Professor (Economics) Fred Arnold 1972 Guilford College Assistant Director Greensboro, N.C. East-West Population Institute - East-West Center Honolulu

18 Melissa H. Clark 1980 Katharine Gaskin 1979 Assistant Professor (Sociology) London University of Mississippi John Leroy Goodman 1974 DianeColasant o 1977 Senior Research Associate Assistant Professor (Sociology) The Urban Institute University of Wisconsin - Madison Washington, D.C. JamesC . Cramer 1975 Patricia A. Gwartney-Gibbs 1981 Associate Professor (Sociology) Assistant Professor (Sociology) University of California - Davis University of Oregon John Czajka 1979 Robert M.Hause r 1968 Research Sociologist Professor (Sociology) and Director Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. (Training Program in Social Methods) Washington, D.C. University of Wisconsin Barbara Devaney 1977 Martha Hill 1977 Assistant Professor (Economics) Study Director, Survey Research Center Institute of Policy Sciences Institute for Social Research and Public Affairs University of Michigan Duke University PaulM. Hirsch 1973 Hasan Zafer Dogan 1974 Associate Professor (Sociology and Graduate Research Associate School of Business) The Population Council, Yozgat Project University of Chicago Ankara, Turkey Howard M.lam s 1973 Barry JamesEdmonsto n 1974 Statistician Assistant Professor (Sociology) Office of Research and Statistics Cornell University Social Security Administration EugeneP . Ericksen 1971 Anrudh K.Jain 1968 Head, Sampling Division Senior Associate (International Programs) Institute for Survey Research The Population Council Temple University New York Mark Evers 1974 George K.Jarvi s 1972 Assistant Professor (Sociology) Associate Professor (Sociology) University of Oregon University of Alberta David L.Featherma n 1969 Allan GriswoldJohnso n 1972 Professor (Sociology) Hartford, Conn. and Director, Institute on Aging Robert A. Johnson 1979 University of Wisconsin - Madison Assistant Professor (Sociology) Allan G. Feldt 1963 Iowa State University Professor (Urban and Regional Planning, Natural VasanthaKandiah 1980 Resources) Population Affairs Officer University of Michigan United Nations Population Division Greer L. Fox 1970 Charles R. Kinderman 1969 Professor (Sociology); Director, Assistant Director Family Research Center and Associate Director, Bureau of Justice Statistics Merrill-Palmer Institute U.S. Department of Justice Wayne State University Robert Klein 1978 Thomas Fraker 1981 Survey Statistician Research Economist Office of Research and Statistics Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Social Security Administration Washington, D.C. Michael Koenig 1981 Judith L.Friedma n 1970 Post-Doctoral Fellow Associate Professor (Human Ecology) Department of Population Dynamics Cook College, Rutgers University Johns Hopkins University Samuel R. Friedman 1970 Raymond Langsten 1980 Research Associate Post-Doctoral Fellow VERA Institute of Justice Carolina Population Center New York City

19 Robert Lapham 1970 WilliamS. Pooler 1968 Staff Director, Committee on Population Associate Professor (Sociology) and Demography Syracuse University National Research Council - National Academy William F. Pratt 1965 of Sciences Chief, Family Growth Survey Branch Rex Y. Leghorn 1977 National Center for Health Statistics Assistant Professor (Sociology) Toni Richards 1980 Emory University Post-Doctoral Fellow Paul K.C. Liu 1973 Office of Population Research Economist, Institute of Economics Princeton University Academia Sinica, Taiwan SheaO. Rulslein 1971 Maurice M. MacDonald 1973 Research Associate, Analysis Division Associate Professor World Fertility Survey School of Family Resources London University of Wisconsin - Madison Patricia Ferman Ryan 1968 JenniferMadan s 1977 Professor (Sociology) Statistician, Division of Analysis Eastern Michigan University National Center for Health Statistics Allan Schnaiherg 1968 Hyattsville, Maryland Professor (Sociology) Albert M.Marckward t 1968 Northwestern University Demographer Judith Seltzer 1981 CELADE Post-Doctoral Fellow Santiago, Chile Department of Social Relations Robert Mare 1977 Johns Hopkins University Associate Professor (Sociology) Lois B.Shaw 1973 University of Wisconsin Senior Research Associate Elizabeth Martin 1974 Center for Human Resource Research Research Associate Ohio State University Bureau of Social Science Research Mohammad K.Siddiqu i 1978 Washington, D.C. Demographer/Statistician AndrewMaso n 1975 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Research Associate, East-West Population Institute Geneva, Switzerland East-West Center, Honolulu NelsonSilv a 1978 and Associate Professor (Economics) Director, Department of Population Studies University of Hawaii Brazilian Census Bureau David D. McFarland 1971 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Associate Professor (Sociology) WilliamSmi t 1964 University of California - Los Angeles Professor (Sociology) Partha S. Mohapatra 1966 Calvin College Deceased 1976 StanleySmit h 1976 Baron L.Moot s 1970 Director, Population Program Assistant Research Scientist Bureau of Economic and Business Research Population Studies Center and Associate Professor (Economics) University of Michigan University of Florida Krishnan Namboodiri 1962 Alden Spe ar e 1969 Professor (Sociology) Associate Professor (Sociology) University of North Carolina Brown University Margaret O. Nielsen 1977 KodagallanurSrikanta n 1967 Assistant Professor (Sociology) Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics School of Social Work Poona, India Michigan State University Jay I. Stark 1969 JamesF . Phillips 1980 Director, Overseas Sales Analysis Associate, Population Council and Scientist, General Motors Corporation International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Detroit, Michigan Dacca, Bangladesh

20 RossStolzenber g 1973 Napaporn Chayovan 1982 Senior Social Scientist Research Scientist Rand Corporation Institute of Population Studies Santa Monica, California Chulalongkorn University Te-HsiungSun 1968 Bangkok, Thailand Director Susan DeVos 1982 Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning Postdoctoral Fellow Center for Demography andEcolog y JamesA .Swee t 1968 Professor (Sociology)an dAssociate , University of Wisconsin- Madison Center for Demography andEcolog y Hallie Kintner 1982 University of Wisconsin- Madison Research Associate David S.Thompso n 1980 Department of Physical Medicinean dRehabilitatio n Assistant Research Scientist University of Michigan Highway Safety Research Institute Robert Kleinbaum 1981 University of Michigan Mellon Research Fellow Population Studies Center Arland Thornton 1975 University of Michigan Assistant Professor (Sociology)an d Senior Study Director, Survey Research Center William Lavely 1982 Institute for Social Research ACLS/Mellon Fellow for Chinese Studies University of Michigan Population Studies Center University of Michigan Roy C.Treadwa y 1967 Associate Professor (Sociology) Sara Millman 1982 Illinois State University Assistant Professor (Sociology) Brown University BooneA . Turchi 1973 Associate Professor (Economics) Osman Nur 1981 University of North Carolina Director of Educational Statistics Sudan Ministry of Education and Guidance Lois Verbrugge 1974 Khartoum, Sudan Associate Research Scientist Institute for Social Research HerbertSmit h 1981 University of Michigan Program Associate, Population Sciences Division Rockefeller Foundation Paul Ronald Voss 1975 New York Research Specialist Department of Rural Sociology Sou-PenWe i 1981 University of Wisconsin - Madison Computer Science Department Arizona State University Linda Waite 1976 Social Scientist Rand Corporation Santa Monica, California BruceL .Warre n 1970 Courses inDemograph y Associate Professor (Sociology) Eastern Michigan University Many members of the Center's professional staff also EugeneWo n 1978 serve onth e faculty ofeithe r theDepartmen t of Sociology Systems Development Corporation or the Department of Economics. Their instructional Santa Monica, California responsibilities include teaching the following graduate courses, which Center students are either required oren ­ couraged to lake. Center fellows (students in the Sociology Department) are required to take one of the following New PSC Graduates for 1981-82 courses every semester they areenrolle d until they achieve candidacy. Roger L. Brown 1982 Postdoctoral Fellow (Sociology) Sociology 530 - Population Problems. An intensive Yale University analysis of the basic demographic processes and their Mark Browning 1982 causes. Howvariation s in mortality, fertility, nuptiality Economist and migration arise and howthe y affect society. Illustra­ Potomac Electric Power Company tions are drawn from the United States anda varietyo f Washington, D.C. developed and underdeveloped countries.

21 Sociology 531 - Regional Population Problems. This Sociology 633 - Proseminar in Historical Demography. A course focuses on the population aspects of social prob­ survey of the data sources and the methods of data lems - food, energy, pollution, etc. - the role ofpopulatio n organization and analysis peculiar to historical demo­ variables in the problems of social development, and social graphic research along with selected substantive topics. policies that are concerned with the population aspects of Sociology 636 - Human Ecology and Social Organization. these problems. It considers these issues in the context of Deals with the forms and modes of change of social struc­ specific countries representing a range of demographic ture as affected by interactions with the environment and situations. population. Sociology 535 - The Urban Community. A descriptive Sociology 830, 831 - Seminar in Population and Human study of the form and development of the urban continuity Ecology. A variety of substantive and methodological with respect to demographic structure, spatial and tem­ topics are taken up in a seminar format. poral patterns and functional organization, with attention to the sources of data and techniques of analysis ap­ Economics46 6 - Economieso f Population. Analysis of the propriate to the study of population distribution. causes and effects of population changes from the stand­ point of economic theory. (For upper-class undergraduates Sociology 630 - Research Methods in Population and and as an introduction for graduates.) Human Ecology. An examination of the nature and struc­ ture of a large number of demographic techniques useful Economics 667 - The Economics of Population Growth. for studying population composition or analyzingpopula ­ Examines the economic determinants of demographic tion dynamics. Topics include models for studying stable behavior, with a focus on the economics of fertility, as well populations, the reproduction processes and the transla­ as the consequences of demographic change in both tion of period to cohort rates. Attention is also given to developed and less developed countries and the economic data sources and statistical techniques used instudyin g the aspects of population policy and family planning pro­ interrelationships of population distribution, division of grams. labor and community structure. Involves both review of Economics867,86 8 -Semina ri n the Economics of Popula­ literature and computations using the techniques. tion. A seminar coveringa variety of topics in the form of Sociology 631, 632 - Advanced Population Methods. (1) a detailed discussion of an important recent article or These courses focus on the formal development of models series of articles; (2) presentation of research plans or find­ to study the growth, distribution,chang e and movement of ings by trainees or faculty members; (3) presentation of human population with emphasis on mathematical models research by a visitor. which lead to empirically verifiable theory.

22 PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES

MEETINGS ATTENDED: Albert Simkus Chaired session on Demographic Studies of Social Population Association of America Meeting, Stratification. San Diego,29 April-1 May 1982 Neil G. Bennett (with Samuel Preston) Presented paper: "A Census-Based American Sociological Association Meetings, Method for Estimating Adult Mortality." Toronto,August 1982: (with Lea Keil Garson) Presented paper: "Old-Age Mor­ John Knodel tality in the Soviet Union, 1959-1970." Discussant, Session on Fertility and Family Planning. Barbara Entwisle, Albert I. Hermalin and William Mason Presented papers: "Comparative Analysis of So­ Karen Oppenheim Mason cioeconomic Factors Affecting Fertility, Using WFS Organized, chaired and participated in a session on Data." Change and Resistance to Change: The Occupational Par­ and "A Processual Model of Fertility Behavior for ticipation of Women. Comparative Analysis Using the World Fertility Survey." William Mason Discussant for the session titled "Methodology— Issuesi n Deborah Freedman the Analysis of Change." Presented paper: "Attitudes Toward Marriage and Single Presented a paper authored with J.S. House and S.S. Mar­ Life in the I980's." tin: "Dimensions of Political Alienation in America: Theoretical and Empirical." Ronald Freedman Chaired session on Fertility Determinants: Findings from Comparative Analysis. Seminar on the Analysis of the WFS Family Planning William H. Frey Moduleand Related Protocols, Presented paper: "Projecting City-SuburbRedistributio n Genting Highlands, Malaysia,December 1981 Within U.S. SMSAs: An Extension of the Multiregional Methodology to the Intraregional Case." Albert Hermalin served as Organizer of the Seminar. Barbara Entwisle and Albert Hermalin presented a paper Miriam Kadin written jointly with William Mason: "A Model for the Presented paper: "Socioeconomic Measurement in Mor­ Comparative Analysis of WFSContraceptiv e Use Data." tality Research: An Examination of U.S. Data in the 20th Century." General Meetings of the International Union for the Robert Kleinbaum Scientific Study ofPopulation, Manila, December 1981 Chaired session on Labor Force Activity. Barbara Entwisle and Albert Hermalin attended.

John Knodel Albert Hermalin organized a formal session on Organized session on Historical Demography. Methodological Issues in Family Planning Programme Presented paper: "Summary of Fertility Determinants in Evaluation. Thailand."

23 UN ThirdExpert CroupMeeting on Methods of Ronald Freedman: Measuring the Impact of FamilyPlanning Programmes Consultant to the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family on Fertility, Geneva, April 1982 Planning, Taichung, Taiwan Member, Population Advisory Committee, The Albert Hermalin presented a paper: "Using Individual and Rockefeller Foundation. Areal Data in the Evaluation of Family Planning." Member, Committee on Population and Demography, Other Meetings: National Academy of Sciences. Member, Panel on Determinants of Fertility, National Academy of Sciences. Ronald Freedmanattende d the September 1981 meeting of the NASPane l on Fertility Determinants in Woods Hole, Member, Committee on Comparative Analysis of Fer­ Mass. tility, IUSSP. Member, Interdisciplinary Science Advisory Committee, Ronald Freedman attended two meetings of the Popula­ Alan Guttmacher Institute. tion Advisory Committee of the Rockefeller Foundation Member, Committee on the Taeuber Award, Population held in New York City in October 1981 and January 1982. Association of America. John Knodel presented a paper titled "Child Mortality and Member, Ad Hoc Committee on Research on the Reproductive Behavior in German Village Populations in Population of China, Social Science Reaearch Council. the Past," at the Social Science History Association's An­ nual Meeting in Nashville, October 1981. William H. Frey: Consultant to the Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. on John Knodel and two Thai colleagues presented a draft of project sponsored by NICHD on urban residential their joint research report on fertility in Thailand at a mobility in the 1970's, July 1980-present. workshop conference on fertility determinants sponsored Consultant to the NSF-sponsored project at the by the NASi n Washington, D.C. in January 1982. University of Wisconsin-Madison: "Maintaining Pro­ duction of Public Use Sample Files from the 1940 and Karen Oppenheim Mason was one of about 15 participants 1950 Censuses of Population," May 1981-present. in a workshop conference sponsored by NICHD, titled Editorial consultant, Demography. Research Conference on Delayed Childbearing,hel d at the Consulting reviewer for the Rose Monograph Series of Belmont Conference Center in Elkridge, Md., September the American Sociological Association. 1981. Consulting reviewer for the National Science Founda­ Karen Oppenheim Mason was the discussant for a session tion. on the CulturalBase s of Job Segregation by Sex, presented at a Workshop on Job Segregation by Sex, sponsored by Albert I. Hermalin: the NAS Committee on Women's Employment and Chair, IUSSP Committee for the Analysis of Family Related Social Issues, held in May 1982 in Washington, Planning Programs, through December 1981. D.C. Member, International Advisory Board, Studies in Family Planning. Albert Simkus presented a paper titled "Educational Member, Public Affairs Committee, Population Structure and Equality of Educational Opportunity in Association of America. Hungary, 1923-1973" at the September 1981 meeting of Member, Population Research Committee, NICHD. the American Association for Advancement of Slavic Studies in Monterey, California. Member, Board of Directors, Population Associationo f America. Albert Simkus presented a paper on "Social Mobility in Member, Advisory Panel to the Committee on Gender Two Countries: A Detailed U.S.-Hungarian Comparison" Research of the University of Michigan. at the World Congress of Sociology in Mexico City, August 1982. Robert Kleinbaum: Editorial consultant, Journal of Macroeconomics, OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES 1982-

Neil G. Bennett: John Knodel: Referee, Demography, Social Science Quarterly. Consultant, analysis of second Thailand Contraceptive Prevalance Survey. Barbara Entwisle: Member, Board of Directors, Population Associationo f Copy editor for book manuscript, IUSSP, November America. 1980 through September 1981. Referee, Social Science History, Science, Population Reviewer for book manuscript, Universityo f California Reports, Population and Development Review, and the Press, March 1982. American Journal of Sociology.

24 Referee/dissertation reviewer, Trinity College, Cam­ Eva Mueller: bridge, England. Consultant, AID project on Evaluation of Integrated Population and Development Planning, May 1982. Karen Oppenheim Mason: Consultant, World Bank, Living Standard Measurement Member, Advisory Board, National Opinion Research Study, October 1982. Center's General Social Survey, 1981-present. Member, Board of Directors, Population Association Member, Committee on National Statistics, American of America, 1982-1984. Sociological Association, 1982-1984. Presented lecture on *'The Economic Determinants of Member, Advisory Board, Committee on Gender Rural Fertility in DevelopingCountries " at the Institute Research, University of Michigan. of Statistical Studies and Research, Cairo University Member, Jessie Bernard Award Committee, American (Egypt), December 1981. Sociological Association, 1981-83. Editorial consultant, Demography, American Sociological Review, American Journal of Sociology, Academic Press.

William Mason: Consultant to the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, on a post doctoral fellowship applications study panel. May 1982. Presented lecture on Comparative Analysis of Repro­ ductive Behavior Using the World Fertility Sur­ vey, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, April 1982. Presented lecture on Cohort Analysis, Biostatistics Department, University of Michigan, February 1982. Reviewer, National Science Foundation. Reviewer, NICHD.

25 STAFF ROSTER

Below is a list of staff members currently serving at the Visiting Scholar Population Studies Center for the academic year 1982-83. Walter Bien, lnstitut fur Psychologie, Rheinisch- Westfalische Technische Hochschule, Aachen Director Albert I. Hermalin, Professor of Sociology(o n leave, Fall Supporting Staff semester) Susan Etter, Administrative Associate David Goldberg, Professor of Sociology(Actin g Director, Mary Scott, Administrative Assistant Fall semester) Susan Van Eck, Information and Resources Coordinator Betty Alberts, Receptionist Associate Directors Fran Cartford, Programmer Analyst Ronald Freedman, Roderick D. McKenzie Professor of Ruth Crankshaw, Secretary Sociology (Development) Carol Crawford, Secretary Karen Oppenheim Mason, Associate Professor of Kathleen Duke, Library Assistant Sociology (Training) Lois Groesbeck, Secretary Research Associates Amy Hsu, Programmer Albert Anderson, Assistant Research Scientist Peggy Jones, Accounts Clerk Neil G. Bennett, Mellon Assistant Professor of Sociology Judy Mullin, Secretary J. Michael Coble, Assistant Research Scientist Lora Myers, Research Assistant Reynolds Farley, Professor of Sociology Lisa Neidert, Data Analyst Deborah Freedman, Assistant Professor of Economics Linda Rentfro, Data Processing Clerk William H. Frey, Mellon Assistant Professor ofSociolog y Dorothy Strand, Secretary Miriam Kadin, Post Doctoral Fellow, Adjunct Assistant Mary Claire Toomey, Secretary Professor of Sociology Robert Kleinbaum, Mellon Adjunct Assistant Professor of Economics John Knodel, Professor of Sociology (on leave) William M. Mason, Professor of Sociology Eva L. Mueller, Professor of Economics Albert Simkus, Assistant Professor ofSociolog y

26