University of Malaya Kuala Lumpur
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
ECONOMIC COOPERATION AS AN INSTRUMENT OF CONFIDENCE-BUILDING: THE CASE OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA HAFIZ MUHAMMAD TAHIR ASHRAF ASIA-EUROPE INSTITUTE UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA KUALA LUMPUR 2017 University of Malaya ECONOMIC COOPERATION AS AN INSTRUMENT OF CONFIDENCE-BUILDING: THE CASE OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA HAFIZ MUHAMMAD TAHIR ASHRAF THESIS SUBMITTED IN FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY ASIA-EUROPE INSTITUTE UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA KUALA LUMPUR 2017 University of Malaya UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA ORIGINAL LITERARY WORK DECLARATION Name of Candidate: HAFIZ MUHAMMAD TAHIR ASHRAF Registration/Matric No: QHA120004 Name of Degree: Doctor of Philosophy Title of Project Paper/Research Report/Dissertation/Thesis (“this Work”): “ECONOMIC COOPERATION AS AN INSTRUMENT OF CONFIDENCE- BUILDING: THE CASE OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA” Field of Study: International Relations I do solemnly and sincerely declare that: (1) I am the sole author/writer of this Work; (2) This Work is original; (3) Any use of any work in which copyright exists was done by way of fair dealing and for permitted purposes and any excerpt or extract from, or reference to or reproduction of any copyright work has been disclosed expressly and sufficiently and the title of the Work and its authorship have been acknowledged in this Work; (4) I do not have any actual knowledge nor do I ought reasonably to know that the making of this work constitutes an infringement of any copyright work; (5) I hereby assign all and every rights in the copyright to this Work to the University of Malaya (“UM”), who henceforth shall be owner of the copyright in this Work and that any reproduction or use in any form or by any means whatsoever is prohibited without the written consent of UM having been first had and obtained; (6) I am fully aware that if in the course of making this Work I have infringed any copyright whether intentionally or otherwise, I may be subject to legal action or any other action as may be determined by UM. Candidate’s Signature Date: Subscribed and solemnly declared before, Witness’s Signature Date: Name: Designation: iii University of Malaya ABSTRACT The nature of the Pakistan–India conflict has been portrayed as an ‘enduring rivalry’ and its essential trait is ‘persistence’. Fundamental to their antagonism is the territorial dispute over Kashmir. Negotiations are occasional, but both nations infrequently make goodwill gestures. Peace initiatives such as the Tashkent Declaration in 1966, the Simla Accord in 1972, the Lahore Declaration in 1999, the Agra Summit in 2001 and the process of the Composite Dialogue in 2004 are amongst the most important peace overtures carried out by Pakistan and India. However, dialogues at the secretary level were stalled after the Mumbai attack in 2008. Moreover, India frequently started accusing Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism in her territory. The Pakistan–India peace process portrays the constant upheaval in this bilateral relationship. If one step has been taken forward, two steps are then taken backward. The foremost reason for this is the prevalence of a trust deficit between Pakistan and India. Normalized relations between Pakistan and India are essential for the progress and development of South Asia. The regional economic grouping of South Asian nations, i.e. SAARC, has been held as a hostage of the Pakistan–India conflict and consequently has not become successful in enhancing regional economic cooperation among member countries mainly due to the persistent antagonism between Pakistan and India. With this backdrop, conflict resolution assumes a new urgency and managing the Pakistan–India conflicts becomes more vital. This study evaluates the adoption of a distinctive approach towards managing the Pakistan–India conflict. By placing bilateral economic cooperation under the umbrella of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs), this study examines the prospects of enhanced economic cooperation between Pakistan and India. Mitrany and Hass’s neofunctionalism has been applied to manage the Pakistan–India conflict. It also analyzes its spillover effect on the politico-security relationship between the two nuclear iv University of Malaya weapon neighbors. Regarding the research methodology used in this study, an inductive approach has been adopted in this study. A qualitative research method has been used in this study. Primary as well as secondary sources have been used to collect data for this study. Primary data was collected through interviews of Key Informants (KIs) and government documents. Secondary data refers generally to research carried out by other people. This study mainly focuses on the interviews of the KIs. A questionnaire was used for the in-depth interviews (IDIs) with businessmen, representatives of chambers of commerce and industries, academicians, researchers, analysts and journalists from Pakistan and India in this study. To enhance economic cooperation between Pakistan and India, this study identifies the removal of physical barriers, such as a lack of modern facilities at trade crossings between Pakistan and India, inept infrastructure and the removal of non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Also, this research emphasizes that additional trade arteries should be opened up between Pakistan and India such as the Bahawalnagar–Fazilka, the Khokhrapar–Munabao, the Sialkot–Jammu and trade openings at the line of control (LoC) in the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The study also finds significant potential for joint ventures between Pakistan and India for win-win approaches in trade and economic links. This study considers the current governments, which are pro-business, as catalysts to the launching of economic cooperation and these governments can create conducive environment for initiating peace overtures to manage the conflictual relationship of Pakistan and India. v University of Malaya ABSTRAK Bentuk konflik antara Pakistan-India seringkali digambarkan sebagai “permusuhan berterusan” dan ianya berpanjangan sehingga ke hari ini. Asas kepada persengketaan kedua-dua negara ialah pertikaian berhubung isu Kashmir. Beberapa siri rundingan diadakan secara berkala, namun kedua-dua negara jarang sekali mencapai hasil yang memberangsangkan. Inisiatif ke arah keamanan seperti Deklarasi Tashkent pada 1966, Perjanjian Simla pada 1972, Deklarasi Lahore pada 1999, Sidang Kemuncak Agra pada 2001 dan proses ke arah Dialog Composite pada 2004 adalah antara beberapa langkah menuju keamanan yang pernah diusahakan oleh Pakistan dan India. Walau bagaimanapun, siri-siri dialog di peringkat menteri mula terjejas selepas serangan Mumbai pada 2008. Tambahan pula, India secara kerap mula menuduh Pakistan menaja keganasan dalam wilayahnya. Proses menuju ke arah keamanan oleh Pakistan dan India menggambarkan pergolakan yang tidak berkesudahan dalam hubungan bilateral kedua- dua negara. Sekiranya selangkah usaha ke hadapan diambil, dua langkah mundur ke belakang dihadapi. Alasan utama berlakunya keadaan ini berkaitan dengan meluasnya hakisan kepercayaan di antara Pakistan dan India. Pemulihan hubungan antara Pakistan dan India merupakan keperluan utama kepada kemajuan dan pembangunan rantau Asia Selatan. Kesatuan ekonomi serantau negara-negara Asia Selatan iaitu SAARC, terperangkap dalam konflik Pakistan-India dan akibatnya tidak begitu berjaya dalam usaha memperkukuhkan kerjasama ekonomi serantau di kalangan negara-negara ahli yang diakibatkan terutamanya oleh permusuhan berterusan di antara Pakistan dan India. Dengan latar belakang sebegini, penyelesaian konflik memerlukan tindakan baru yang segera dan menguruskan konflik Pakistan-India menjadi amat penting. Kajian ini menilai penggunaan pendekatan distingtif dalam penyelesaian konflik Pakistan-India. Dengan memasukkan kerjasama ekonomi dua hala sebagai inisiatif ke arah Langkah- Langkah Pemupukan Keyakinan (CBMs), kajian ini mengkaji prospek pengukuhan vi University of Malaya kerjasama ekonomi di antara Pakistan dan India. Teori neo-fungsionalisme oleh Mitrany dan Hass digunapakai untuk menghuraikan pengurusan konflik Pakistan-India. Kajian ini juga menganalisis kesan berganda ke atas hubungan politik-keselamatan di antara dua negara seteru nuklear berjiran ini. Kajian ini menguna pakai kaedah induktif dengan reka bentuk kajian kualitatif. Sumber primer dan sekuder digunakan sebagai pengumpulan data dalam kajian ini. Teknik kajian memperolehi data primer melalui temu bual dengan informan kunci dan analisis dokumen kerajaan dijalankan. Kajian lampau juga digunakan sebagai data sekuder untuk rujukan dan panduan kajian. Dalam kajian ini, temu bual intensif atau mendalam dilakukan merangkumi temu bual dengan ahli perniagaan, wakil perdagangan dan industri, ahli akademik, penyelidik, penganalisis dan wartawan daripada Pakistan dan India. Bagi memperkasa kerjasama ekonomi India dan Pakistan, kajian ini mengenal pasti beberapa halangan fizikal yang perlu dihapuskan seperti kekurangan kelengkapan moden di lintasan perdagangan kedua-dua negara, infrastruktur yang tidak cekap serta penghapusan halangan bukan tarif (NTB). Kajian ini menegaskan supaya lebih banyak laluan perdagangan dibuka seperti Bahawalnagar-Fazilka, Khokhrapar-Munabao, Sialkot-Jammu serta pembukaan laluan perdagangan di Garisan Kawalan (LoC) di wilayah pertikaian Jammu dan Kashmir. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa wujudnya potensi yang signifikan ke arah usahasama di antara Pakistan-India melalui pendekatan menang-menang dalam hubungan ekonomi dan perdagangan. Kajian ini melihat kedua-dua kerajaan sekarang yang pro-perniagaan,