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Handbook of Development Economics Jean Waelbroeck Public Disclosure Authorized THE WZORLDBANK Public Disclosure Authorized BCONOMVICREVIEW ume 12 \I. Lbs _ l UMON REGIONALISMAND DEVELOPMENT Public Disclosure Authorized _ = c cs and Politics in Regional Integration _rrangements: An Introduction aurice Schiffand L. Alan Winters _egionalism: An Analysisof Nontraditional s from Regional Trade Agreements e uel Fernandez and Jonathan Portes _rrangementsand Industrial Development lgo Puga and Anthony J. Venables - ial Integration and Economic Growth Athanasios Vamvakidis Public Disclosure Authorized 'egional Integration as Diplomacy aurice Schiff and L. Alan Winters *.- s * Tariff Formation: The Case of Mercosur *rcelo Olarreaga and Isidro Soloaga A REVIEWESSAY _uryof Development Economics: A Review _=e * he Handbook of Development Economics Jean Waelbroeck Public Disclosure Authorized 15s\()AWNE /)_.)XA-() THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW EDITOR Moshe Syrquin CONSULTING EDITOR Sandra Gain EDITORIAL BOARD Kaushik Basu, Cornell University and Universitv of Delhi David Dollar Francois Bourguignon, DELTA, Paris Gregory K. Ingram Willem H. Buiter, University of Cambridge Lant H. Pritchett Gerald K. Helleiner, University of Toronro Jacques van der Gaag Mark R. Rosenzweig,University of Pennsylvania John Williamson L. Alan Winters The World Bank Economic Review is a professional journal for the dissemination of World Bank- sponsored research that informs policy analyses and choices.It is directed to an international readership among economists and social scientists in government, business, and international agencies,as well as in universities and development research institutions. The Review emphasizespolicy relevance and opera- tional aspects of economics,rather than primarily theoretical and methodological issues.It is intended for readers familiarwith economic theory and analysisbut not necessarilyproficient in advancedmathematical or econometric techniques. Articles will illustrate how professional research can shed light on policy choices. Inconsistency with Bank policy will not be grounds for rejection of an article. Articleswill be drawn primarily from work conducted by World Bank staff and consultants. Beforebeing acceptedfor publicationby the Editorial Board, all articles are reviewedby two refereeswho are not mem- bers of the Bank's staff and one World Bank staff member; articles must also be recommendedby at least one external member of the EditorialBoard. The Review may on occasion publish articles on specified topics by non-Bank contributors. Any reader interested in preparing such an article is invited to submit a proposal of not more than two pages in length to the Editor. The views and interpretations expressed in this journal are those of the authors and do not necessar- ily represent the views and policies of the World Bank or of its Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequencesof their use. When maps are used, the bound- aries, denominations, and other information do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Commentsor brief notes responding to Review articles are welcomeand will be considered for publica- tion to the extent that space permits. Please direct all editorial correspondence to the Editor, The World Bank Economic Review, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. The W/orldBank Economic Review is published three times a year (January, May, and September)by the World Bank. Single copies may be purchased at $12.95. Subscription rates are as follows: Individuals Institutions 1-year subscription USS30 US$50 2-year subscription US$55 US$95 3-year subscription US$70 US$130 Orders should be sent to: World Bank Publications, Box 7247-7956, Philadelphia, PA 19170-7956, U.S.A. Subscriptionsare available without charge to readers with mailing addresses in developing coun- tries and in socialist economies in transition. Written request is required every two years to renew such subscriptions. (C 1998 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THF WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America ISBN 0-8213-4111-1; ISSN0258-6770 Material in this journal is copyrighted. Requests to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dis- semination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to make photocopies is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, Suite 910, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, U.S.A. This journal is indexed regularly in Current Contents/Social& Behavioral Sciences,Index to Interna- tional Statistics, Journal of Economic Literature, Public Affairs Information Service, and Social Sci- ences Citation Index". It is available in microform through University Microfilms, Inc., 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106, U.S.A. THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW Volume 12 May 1998 Number 2 A SYMPOSIUM ON REGIONALISM AND DEVELOPMENT Dynamics and Politics in Regional Integration 177 Arrangements: An Introduction Maurice Schiff and L. Alan Winters Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional 197 Gains from Regional Trade Agreements Raquel Fernindez and Jonathan Portes Trading Arrangements and Industrial Development 221 Diego Puga and Anthony J. Venables Regional Integration and Economic Growth 251 Athanasios Vamvakidis Regional Integration as Diplomacy 271 Maurice Schiff and L. Alan Winters Endogenous Tariff Formation: The Case of Mercosur 297 Marcelo Olarreaga and Isidro Soloaga A REVIEW ESSAY Half a Century of Development Economics: A Review 323 Based on the Handbook of Development Economics Jean Waelbroeck A SYMPOSIUMON REGIONALISMAND DEVELOPMENT This symposium draws on papers originally prepared as part of the World Bank Development Economics Research Group's research program on regionalism and development. The articles in the symposium, which focus on dynamics and politics, were refereed in the usual way. The Editorial Board invited Maurice Schiff and L. Alan Winters, who led the research project, to write an introduc- tion to the symposium. THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW, VOL. 12, NO. 2: 177-95 Dynamics and Politics in Regional Integration Arrangements: An Introduction Maurice Schiff and L. Alan Winters Overwhelmingevidence links opennessand economicgrowth. In recentyears many developingcountries have attemptedto liberalizetheir tradeand investmentregimes, mostly throuighautonomous unilateral liberalization. At the same time, a growing numberof governmentshave begun to exploreand participate in regionaltrading agree- ments. The agreementsgrant reciprocaltrade preferencesto participatingcountries, resultingin discriminrationagainst nonmembers. The causesand consequencesof regionalintegration have given riseto an extensive and vigorousdebate among both scholarsand policymakers.However, the qualityof this debatehas beenseriously hampered by the absenceof clearanalytical models and empiricalevidence on many of the factorsunder discussion.Few of the recentargu- ments in favor of regionalintegration arrangements have been satisfactorilyformal- ized or tested. To addresssome of these issues,a WorldBank researchprogram fo- cuseson new and developingcountry aspectsof regionalism.The programexplores iacunaein the traditionalstatic analysis of regionalintegration arrangements; addresses the dynamiceffects of integration,the economicsof deepintegration, and the politics and politicaleconomy of regionalintegration arrangements; and comparesregional- ism with multilateralism.The articlesin this symposiumaddress the topicsof dynami- ics, politics,and politicaleconomy in regionalintegration agreements. Overwhelming evidence links openness and economic growth. In recent years many developing countries have made efforts to liberalize their trade and invest- ment regimes. To a great extent these reform efforts have been consistent with the policy prescriptions that emerge from economic first principles: trade barri- ers should be low, more or less uniform across sectors, transparent, and nondiscretionary and should operate through the price mechanism. Most devel- oping countries have sought to apply these principles through a process of au- tonomous unilateral liberalization. At the same time, a growing number of governments have begun to explore and participate in regional trading agreements. The agreements grant reciprocal trade preferences to participating countries, resulting in discrimination against nonmembers. Indeed, nearly every country in the world is a member of-or in the process of discussing participation in-one or more regional integration ar- Maurice Schiff and L. Alan Winters are with the Development Economics Research Group at the World Bank. This symposium is made up of articles that were originally prepared as part of the group's research program on regionalism and development. ©i1998 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THEWORLD BANK 177 178 THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW, VOL. 12, NO. 2 rangements (RIAs),and some 55 to 60 percent of world trade now occurs within such trading blocs. Although most preferential trading arrangements are regional in the geographical sense, this is not necessary for
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