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December 2001 24897 December 2001 Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Research A bstracts Program of Public Disclosure Authorized Current Studies Public Disclosure Authorized 2001 m Contents Introduction 1 Studies by Subject Area 3 Abstracts of Current Studies 9 Poverty and Social Development Health and Population 40 Education, Labor, and Employment 46 Environment 58 Infrastructure and Urban Development 68 Agriculture and Rural Development 87 Macroeconomics and Growth 100 International Economics 106 Domestic Finance 120 Industry and Private Sector Development 130 Governance and Public Sector Management 139 Bank Research Output 148 iii Introduction The World Bank's research, described annually in this have received intensive analytical training. Those work- publication, is evaluated periodically by external experts ing on the Bank's lending operations or providing advi- and occasionally by policymakers in developing and sory services wrestle constantly with the needs and transition economies. Evaluators generally commend problems of developing and transition economies. the Bank's research program for its focus on important Through their international experience, they often dis- topics and its empirical testing of theoretical concepts in cern patterns in the successes and failures of policies and the light of international experience. Those character- strategies-patterns that would not be evident at the istics reflect a review process established more than 30 national or even regional level. By rigorously analyzing years ago and the training and experience of a unique these patterns, Bank staff have advanced our under- international staff. standing of a wide range of critical development issues. The review process has been developed, revised, and Experience has revealed that a large number of managed by the World Bank's Research Committee, factors-beyond economics and finance-shape suc- which allocates central funds for research within the cessful development. The Bank's mandate has broadened Bank. The committee's mandate is to ensure that Bank over time to accommodate these factors. This breadth has research is relevant to policy and meets high standards come at a cost, however. Responsible for a widening of analytical quality. Its review process is competitive, and range of projects and programs, Bank staff must keep funds are available not only in Bank research offices but abreast of developments across an expanding profes- also to staff througlhout the Bank. Both Bank staff and sional portfolio and make long and frequent trips abroad. external experts review grant proposals, and the com- These demands absorb time that could otherwise be mittee makes final decisions. used to test the validity of the insights suggested by The committee's chairman is Nick Stern, the Bank's experience. As a result, research by the staff closest to chief economist and senior vice president of development government policymakers is declining, which could economics. Its members include regional chief economists reduce the relevance and pragmatism of the Bank's from lending operations offices, sectoral experts and research. advisers to Bank member countries, and managers of the World Bank Institute's learning programs, the Bank's A New Initiative Promotes Research evaluation department, and the International Finance Critical for Policy Corporation. These committee members bring to their reviews both comprehensive knowledge of analytical To address these issues, this year the Bank established methods and familiarity with the most important devel- the Regional and Network Research Initiative to focus opment problems facing policymakers in Bank member research on issues critical for development policy and countries. Bank operations and to help reverse the decline in research by lending operations staff and Bank sectoral World Bank Staff l(eep a Sharp Focus on Policy experts. The program will assist operations and network staff But the results of the committee's review process are only in planning and developing research projects, fund advice as good as the best of the proposals submitted-and and participation by experts in these projects, and increase those are both rigorous and relevant, thanks to the edu- the incentives for conducting research by formally cation and day-to-day work of the Bank's staff. Drawn acknowledging the operations and network teams that from the world's leading academic institutions, the staff make the most valuable contributions in research. The initiative also will encourage research on priority regions, * Infrastructure and urban development. such as Africa, and on priority issues that remain poorly * Agriculture and rural development. understood, such as poverty, inequality, governance, and * Macroeconomics and growth. private sector development in transition economies. * International economics. Research funded under this new initiative will be high- * Domestic finance. lighted in future editions of the Abstracts of Current * Industry and private sector development. Studies. * Governance and public sector management. The appendix lists reports and publications produced What Research Is Now Under Way at the Bank? from Bank research and explains how to obtain them. This volume reports on research projects initiated, under How to Get More Information way, or completed in fiscal 2001 (July 1, 2000, through June 30,2001). The abstracts in the volume describe, for This is an annual compendium; readers interested in each project, the questions addressed, the analytical obtaining more timely information on World Bank methods used, the findings to date, and their policy research and its findings may wish to subscribe, free of implications. Each abstract also identifies the expected charge, to the quarterly Policy and Research Bulletin (see completion date, the research team, and any reports or the subscription request form at the back of the vol- publications produced. To make it easier to obtain infor- ume). Each issue includes information on recent World mation and data, each abstract gives the email address Bank publications and working papers, abstracts of newly for the research project's supervisor. initiated research projects and summaries of recent The abstracts cover 150 research projects from research findings, and a column identifying electronic throughout the Bank, grouped under 11 major head- information available from the Bank. ings: The Bulletin, Abstracts of CurrentStudies, articles from * Poverty and social development. the Bank's two research journals-the World Bank Research * Health and population. Observer and World Bank Economic Review-and many * Education, labor, and employment. research reports and publications are available on the Web * Environment. at http://econ.worldbank.org. 2 Studies by Sub ject Area Poverty and Social Development 11 The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Farm Sector in Thailand 11 Technology and Poverty Alleviation 11 Does Microcredit Empower Women? A Study of Grameen Bank, BRAC, and the RD-12 Projects in Bangladesh 13 How Do the Poor Cope with Widespread Natural Disaster? A Study of the 1998 Flood of Rural Bangladesh 13 Long-Term Impacts of Microcredit Programs: A Study of the Grameen Bank and Other Programs in Bangladesh 14 Policy Research Report on Gender and Development 15 The Impact of Prices, Taxes, Subsidies, and Stipends on Poverty 17 A New Analytical Framework for Evaluating Social Programs 18 Private Transfers in a Cross-Section of Developing Countries 19 The Impact of Growth on Poverty in Latin America 20 Using Semi-Parametric Methods for the Evaluation of Social Programs and Policies 20 Economic Growth and Household Welfare: Policy Lessons from Vietnam 21 Household Coping with AIDS in Tanzania 22 Informal Safety Nets in Nicaragua 22 Social Exclusion and Poverty 23 The Dynamics of Urban Poverty in Rio de Janeiro and Implications for Public Policy 24 Extreme Poverty and Social Exclusion in Latin America 25 The Methodology of Poverty Assessments 26 Safety Nets in an Emerging Market Economy 27 Will Social Security Reform in Latin America Provide Greater Retirement Security? 28 World Poverty Monitoring 28 Patterns of Inequality and Government Intervention 29 Public Spending and the Poor in Latin America 30 Urban Poverty, Risk Management, and Social Capital . 31 Cultural Change, Community Mobilization, and Participatory Development 31 Innovations in the International Crafts Market and Empowerment of Artisans in India 32 Organizational Cultures and Spaces for Empowerment: Interactions between Poor People's Organizations and World Bank Poverty Programs 33 3 Evaluation of the Impact of Investments in Early Child Development on Nutrition and Cognitive Development 33 Poverty and the International Economy: What Are the Links? 35 Welfare Impacts of Policy on Disadvantaged Groups 36 Social Capital 37 Health and Population 40 The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Health of the Elderly in Northwestern Tanzania 40 Optimal Policies for Controlling Infectious Diseases 40 Africa Nutrition Database Initiative 41 Poverty and Health 42 The Economics of Malaria 43 The Public Economics of Health Reform 44 Education, Labor, and Employment 46 The Impact of Labor Market Policies and Institutions on Economic Performance 46 Income Support for the Unemployed: Mandatory Severance Pay in Peru 47 Assessing the Impact of Early Childhood Malnutrition on Academic Achievement 48 Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programs in China 48 Migration, Remittances, and Poverty in Latin
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