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Analysing the Use of Compellence During Peace Operations

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Analysing the Use of Compellence During Peace Operations Analysing the Use of Compellence during Peace Operations Ken Ohnishi Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds School of Politics and International Studies September 2020 - ii - The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Ken Ohnishi to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2020 The University of Leeds and Ken Ohnishi - iii - Acknowledgements I owe a special thanks to my supervisors. Edward Newman guided, supported, and encouraged me throughout the entire period of my PhD research. Graeme Davies helped me to reorganise my messy ideas into a feasible project during its earlier phase. Yoshiharu Kobayashi, who kindly accepted a sudden request to join my supervisory team, helped me to greatly improve the thesis during its final phase. The thesis would not have been completed without their commitment. I would also like to thank other people at the University of Leeds. The cooperation and flexibility of the staff of the university and the School of Politics and International Studies enabled me to continue my PhD studies off campus after leaving Leeds. My two years in Leeds were also supported by my friendly PhD colleagues and a small community of Japanese in the city. I also wish to thank Lord David Richards and Dr David Kilcullen for taking the time to be interviewed despite their busy schedules. Their insights based on their firsthand experience were invaluable for my research. I need to thank a number of people in Japan as well. First and foremost, I would not have been able to start my PhD studies without the support of the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS). Many colleagues at NIDS helped and encouraged me to complete this thesis. In particular, Hikaru Yamashita was always a reliable adviser regarding not only my research but also my other works at NIDS. Naoki Ishihara also gave me insightful comments, as he had done while I had been his undergraduate student. I am always thankful for his friendly support, which continued long after my graduation. Finally, I would like to thank my parents, who let me do what I want to do. I greatly appreciate everything they have done for me, without which I would not have been able to get where I am now. - iv - Abstract Compellence is a strategy that employs pressure to induce others to take specific actions. Contemporary international peace operations are expected to use force, if necessary, to protect civilians and/or maintain and restore order in the very volatile environment of post-civil war states. This challenging task requires peacekeepers to proactively change the status quo through compelling local warring factions to stop violence, disarm, and join peace processes. This thesis adopts a comparative case study approach, systematically analyses peace operations in East Timor, Sierra Leone, and Somalia, and identifies conditions under which compellence is likely to succeed in peace operations. The overall finding of the thesis is that there are five conditions which favour the success of compellence in peace operations: the use of the gradual-turning-of-the-screw strategy; the actual use of force as the source of credibility; the achievement of counter-coercion negation as a form of denial; the achievement of stronghold neutralisation, which is another form of denial; and the absence of third-party support on the target side. Thus, a clearly one-sided situation in favour of compellers is necessary because target armed groups are evasive, and they have higher interests and stronger motivation than compellers in what is in dispute. This thesis provides the first systematic attempt to specifically analyse conditions for the success of compellence in international peace operations. This study contributes to the literature of compellence by identifying conditions for its success, focusing on the understudied context of compellence against non-state actors. The study also contributes to the field of peace operations by demonstrating how compellence can be a causal mechanism for achieving their objectives and when it is likely to work. The findings have practical implications as well. The conditions indicate what practitioners should achieve to successfully employ the strategy in peace operations. - v - Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................... iii Abstract ....................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................ v List of Tables ............................................................................................. viii List of Abbreviations .................................................................................. ix Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Research Questions and the Contributions of the Thesis ...................... 4 The Structure of the Thesis .................................................................. 10 Chapter 1 Compellence and Peace Operations: Concept, Theory, and History ......................................................................................... 16 1.1 Compellence ................................................................................. 16 1.1.1 The Concept of Compellence ............................................ 16 1.1.2 Previous Research on Compellence .................................. 20 1.2 Peace Operations ......................................................................... 43 1.2.1 The Concept and Development of Peace Operations ........ 43 1.2.2 Previous Research on Peace Operations .......................... 51 1.3 Compellence and Peace Operations ............................................ 61 1.3.1 The Application of the Concept and Theory of Compellence to Peace Operations ...................................... 61 1.3.2 Previous Research Combining Compellence and Peace Operations ................................................................ 65 Chapter 2 Analytical Framework .............................................................. 73 2.1 The Clarification of the Scope of the Research ............................. 73 2.2 Conditions Favouring the Success of Compellence in Peace Operations ................................................................................... 77 2.2.1 Troop Numbers .................................................................. 79 2.2.2 The Strategy of Compellence ............................................ 82 2.2.3 Credibility ........................................................................... 85 2.2.4 Denial ................................................................................. 89 2.2.5 Third-Party Support............................................................ 92 - vi - 2.3 Methodology ................................................................................. 94 2.4 Relevant Cases ............................................................................ 98 Chapter 3 East Timor: INTERFET ........................................................... 111 3.1 Background ................................................................................. 111 3.2 The Deployment and Activity of INTERFET ................................ 114 3.3 The Examination of the Hypotheses ........................................... 116 3.3.1 Troop Numbers ................................................................ 117 3.3.2 The Strategy of Compellence .......................................... 122 3.3.3 Credibility ......................................................................... 126 3.3.4 Denial ............................................................................... 135 3.3.5 Third-Party Support.......................................................... 139 3.4 Conclusion .................................................................................. 144 Chapter 4 Sierra Leone: UNAMSIL and the UK Forces ......................... 149 4.1 Background ................................................................................. 149 4.2 The Deployment and Activity of UNAMSIL and the UK Forces ... 152 4.3 The Examination of the Hypotheses ........................................... 156 4.3.1 Troop Numbers ................................................................ 159 4.3.2 The Strategy of Compellence .......................................... 164 4.3.3 Credibility ......................................................................... 171 4.3.4 Denial ............................................................................... 181 4.3.5 Third-Party Support.......................................................... 193 4.4 Conclusion .................................................................................. 198 Chapter 5 Somalia: UNOSOM II and the US Forces .............................. 207 5.1 Background ................................................................................. 207 5.2 The Deployment and Activity of UNOSOM II and the US Forces .......................................................................................
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