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The Race to the South Pole: The Power of Agile Development presented to IIBA Cincinnati Chapter Monthly Meeting July 17, 2018 by Rick Brenner Chaco Canyon Consulting Building State-of-the-Art Teamwork In Problem-Solving Organizations [email protected] | @RickBrenner | @TechDebtPolicy Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner ChacoCanyon.com | TechDebtPolicy.com 1 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Imagine… Petty Officer Edgar Evans, R.N. Photo: Herbert Ponting Source: British Antarctic Expedition 1910-13 2 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Adobe Reader 6.0 A note on format or later is required • Underlined items are live links to: • Other slides • Articles on my Web site • Articles elsewhere on the Web • To get a copy with working links: https://c4i.co/38l • To get a copy of the handout: https://c4i.co/38k • Both plus an annotated bibliography: https://c4i.co/38m Please let me know as we go along if you want to ask a question 3 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Core message • Two teams tried to reach the South Pole • Scott’s approach relied on conventional wisdom • Amundsen’s emphasized risk management • Value of conventional wisdom declines rapidly as you move into the unknown • The larger and riskier the project: • The more important is risk management • The less important is conventional wisdom • The more important are the advantages of agile processes We can understand the difference in outcomes in terms of the advantages of agile approaches 4 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The Agile Manifesto (briefly) 1. Satisfy the customer early and often 2. Welcome changing requirements 3. Deliver frequently 4. Collaborate with the customer 5. Support, trust, and focus on highly motivated people 6. Face-to-face is best 7. Measure progress by what’s working 8. Work at a pace sustainable by all 9. Value technical excellence and good design 10. Simplicity is essential 11. Self-organizing teams produce the best results 12. Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral advancement Amundsen understood all this, Scott almost none. 5 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Preparation: Understand the problem • An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of ____ • Measure twice, cut ___ • Look before you ___ • By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail. ― Benjamin Franklin • Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe. ― Abraham Lincoln It’s easier to stay out of trouble than to get out of trouble 6 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station webca m Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station near completion NSF/USAP photo, January 2006 7 CopyrightCopyright 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner Geography • High plateau: 9300 ft (2800 m) • Lhasa, Tibet: 11,995 ft (3656 m) • Quito, Ecuador: 9,350 ft (2849 m) • Pressure elevation: 10-13000 ft (3-4 km) • Desert: rarely snows: 7.9 in/yr (20 cm/yr) • Summer high temperatures: -25˚C (-12˚F) • Mercury freezes: -38.83˚C (-37.9˚F) • Ethanol freezes: -114.1°C (-173.5°F) • Time zone: Christchurch, New Zealand 8 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Distances and navigation • 700 miles (1130 km) from Ross Ice Shelf boundary • Scott’s actual planned route: 1530 miles (2500 km) 11000 ft (3350 m) 200 ft (61 m)Base Camp Pole 9 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Navigation at the pole • Only one sunrise and one sunset per year • Sun has no noon maximum • Special techniques for navigational measurements are required • A solid claim is based on boxing your position A time series at sunrise 30 minutes between exposures Photos courtesy Robert Schwarz 10 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner State of Antarctic exploration in 1910 Unknown Known Shackleton de Gerlache Nimrod 1907-09 Belgica 1898 Scott Discovery 1901-04 …and many more 11 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Expedition strategy • Travel by ship to Ross Ice Shelf boundary • Land all supplies and build base camp • Preposition supplies at a series of depots • Winter over • Mount assault in Spring • Return by end of Summer Depot Depot Depot Base Camp Pole 12 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Norwegian school of polar exploration • First enunciated by Ludvig Schmelck • Front page of Christiania (Oslo) newspaper late 1880s • Previous expeditions had: • Large number of heterogeneous elements • Clumsy and expensive organization • Proposed a “new method” of polar exploration • Limited number of participants Ludvig Schmelck 1857-1916 • Highly trained, physically ready • All keep pace with each other • Today we call this agile development • Military analog: maneuver warfare • Medical analog: minimally invasive surgery 13 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The two expeditions by the numbers Scott Amundsen Depart 15 Jun 1910 09 Aug 1910 Arrive base 04 Jan 1911 14 Jan 1911 Complement 65 men, 19 ponies, 33 19 men, 97 dogs dogs, 3 motor sledges grt/person 11.5 22 Winter over 33 men, 17 ponies, 33 9 men, 93 dogs dogs, 2 motor sledges Depart for pole 01 Nov 1911 19 Oct 1911 Departure 17 men, 8 ponies, 30 dogs, 5 men, 4 sledges, 52 dogs party 2 motor sledges, 10 sledges Pole party 5 men, 1 sledge 5 men, 3 sledges, 16 dogs ETA pole 22 Dec 1911 5±3 Dec 1911 Arrive pole 16 Jan 1912 14 Dec 1911 Return to base N/A 25 Jan 1912 14 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Read: How to Make Two routes to the pole Good Guesses: Strategy Wellington Ross Ice Shelf is the size of France Scott’s Base Amundsen’s Base King Edward VII Land Transantarctic Mountains New Orleans Calcutta London Map (cc) Soerfm Source: Wikipedia 16 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The “customer” • The customer: Nature and the elements • Nature and the elements would decide: • Which user stories would determine the design • What defects the products had • Whether the product was acceptable • Open questions: • How to get customer participation prior to development • How to get customer participation during development In this analogy, the “executives” were the financial backers of the two expeditions 17 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The menu Satisfy the customer early and often • Welcome changing requirements • Deliver frequently Collaborate with the customer • Support, trust, and focus on motivated people • Face-to-face is best • Measure progress by what’s working • Work at a pace sustainable by all Value technical excellence and good design Simplicity is essential • Self-organizing teams produce the best results • Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral advancement 18 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner 1. Satisfy the customer early and often • Five main benefits • Effective management of customer anxiety • Effective management of executive anxiety • Gather data for strategic corrections • Reduce risk of misunderstandings • Create sense of accomplishment within team • For Amundsen and Scott, customer anxiety is a non-issue 19 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Depot journeys provided early tests • Both expeditions used depot strategy to move materiel South • Journeys provided early tests of transport • Issues for Scott were not addressed • Ponies slowed the entourage • Packing/unpacking cumbersome • Morale problems and conflict rife • Sledge meters jammed • Amundsen used the depot journeys as tests 20 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Scott’s depot journey Ponies behind their shelter in camp on the barrier Photo: Herbert Ponting Source: Scott's Last Expedition 21 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © Richard2018 Richard Brenner Brenner Scott’s depot journey results • Planned in the week prior to execution • One main journey prepositioned about one ton of supplies • Some other incidental prepositioning • Dogs, skiers performed well. Ponies didn’t. • Only one set of pony snowshoes • 7 of 8 ponies lost • Scott refuses to have the others slaughtered • In distress, Scott orders “One Ton Depot” laid • 24 days to reach 37 miles north of intended 80° latitude • Scott returns via dog sled • Depot marked with a single flag • All overworked with respect to diet • Low morale, toxic conflict, feeling of failure • Scott likely clinically depressed 22 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Amundsen’s first depot First depot journey Source: (cc) National Library of Norway 23 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner About Amundsen’s depot journeys • A year in the planning • Three journeys prepositioned three tons of supplies • First journey: 5 days round trip (80°) • First experience of long trips • Found a route to the top of the “Barrier” • Investigated its surface • Tested equipment: ski, sledges, harnesses, clothing, tents, sleeping bags 24 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Amundsen’s depot journey discoveries • Issues • Getting going in the morning took too long: 4 hours • Sledges too heavily built for the conditions • Boots too small and stiff • Dogs overworked • Innovations • Boots, sledges rebuilt • Transverse depot flagging Sir James Dewar (9 km East and West, (1842 – 1923) East axe cut) • Single 5-man tent built from two 3-man tents • Thermos flasks saved time at lunch 25 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Take-aways for: Satisfy the customer early and often 1. Team ownership of a problem produces better solutions 2. When working in unknown territory, retrospectives and reflection are essential 3. You can’t deviate from a plan you don’t have 4. Large numbers of tiny bits of time add up 26 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner The menu Satisfy the customer early and often • Welcome changing requirements • Deliver frequently Collaborate with the customer • Support, trust, and focus on motivated people • Face-to-face
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