The Race to the South Pole: the Power of Agile Development Presented To

The Race to the South Pole: The Power of Agile Development presented to

IIBA Cincinnati Chapter Monthly Meeting

July 17, 2018 by Rick Brenner Chaco Canyon Consulting

Building State-of-the-Art Teamwork In Problem-Solving Organizations [email protected] | @RickBrenner | @TechDebtPolicy

Petty Officer Edgar Evans, R.N. Photo: Herbert Ponting Source: British Antarctic Expedition 1910-13

2 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Adobe Reader 6.0 A note on format or later is required • Underlined items are live links to: • Other slides • Articles on my Web site • Articles elsewhere on the Web • To get a copy with working links: https://c4i.co/38l • To get a copy of the handout: https://c4i.co/38k • Both plus an annotated bibliography: https://c4i.co/38m Please let me know as we go along if you want to ask a question 3 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Core message • Two teams tried to reach the South Pole • Scott’s approach relied on conventional wisdom • Amundsen’s emphasized risk management • Value of conventional wisdom declines rapidly as you move into the unknown • The larger and riskier the project: • The more important is risk management • The less important is conventional wisdom • The more important are the advantages of agile processes

1. Satisfy the customer early and often 2. Welcome changing requirements 3. Deliver frequently 4. Collaborate with the customer 5. Support, trust, and focus on highly motivated people 6. Face-to-face is best 7. Measure progress by what’s working 8. Work at a pace sustainable by all 9. Value technical excellence and good design 10. Simplicity is essential 11. Self-organizing teams produce the best results 12. Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral advancement Amundsen understood all this, Scott almost none. 5 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Preparation: Understand the problem • An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of ____ • Measure twice, cut ___ • Look before you ___ • By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail. ― Benjamin Franklin • Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe. ― Abraham Lincoln It’s easier to stay out of trouble than to get out of trouble 6 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station

webca m

• High plateau: 9300 ft (2800 m) • Lhasa, Tibet: 11,995 ft (3656 m) • Quito, Ecuador: 9,350 ft (2849 m) • Pressure elevation: 10-13000 ft (3-4 km) • Desert: rarely snows: 7.9 in/yr (20 cm/yr) • Summer high temperatures: -25˚C (-12˚F) • Mercury freezes: -38.83˚C (-37.9˚F) • Ethanol freezes: -114.1°C (-173.5°F) • Time zone: Christchurch, New Zealand

11000 ft (3350 m)

200 ft (61 m)Base Camp Pole

• Only one sunrise and one sunset per year • Sun has no noon maximum • Special techniques for navigational measurements are required • A solid claim is based on boxing your position

A time series at sunrise 30 minutes between exposures

Unknown Known

Shackleton de Gerlache Nimrod 1907-09 Belgica 1898

• Travel by ship to Ross Ice Shelf boundary • Land all supplies and build base camp • Preposition supplies at a series of depots • Winter over • Mount assault in Spring • Return by end of Summer

Depot Depot Depot

Base Camp Pole

12 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Norwegian school of polar exploration • First enunciated by Ludvig Schmelck • Front page of Christiania (Oslo) newspaper late 1880s • Previous expeditions had: • Large number of heterogeneous elements • Clumsy and expensive organization • Proposed a “new method” of polar exploration • Limited number of participants Ludvig Schmelck 1857-1916 • Highly trained, physically ready • All keep pace with each other • Today we call this agile development • Military analog: maneuver warfare • Medical analog: minimally invasive surgery 13 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The two expeditions by the numbers

Scott Amundsen Depart 15 Jun 1910 09 Aug 1910 Arrive base 04 Jan 1911 14 Jan 1911 Complement 65 men, 19 ponies, 33 19 men, 97 dogs dogs, 3 motor sledges grt/person 11.5 22 Winter over 33 men, 17 ponies, 33 9 men, 93 dogs dogs, 2 motor sledges Depart for pole 01 Nov 1911 19 Oct 1911 Departure 17 men, 8 ponies, 30 dogs, 5 men, 4 sledges, 52 dogs party 2 motor sledges, 10 sledges Pole party 5 men, 1 sledge 5 men, 3 sledges, 16 dogs ETA pole 22 Dec 1911 5±3 Dec 1911 Arrive pole 16 Jan 1912 14 Dec 1911 Return to base N/A 25 Jan 1912 14 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Read: How to Make Two routes to the pole Good Guesses: Strategy

Wellington

Ross Ice Shelf is the size of France

Scott’s Base Amundsen’s Base King Edward VII Land

Transantarctic Mountains

New Orleans Calcutta London Map (cc) Soerfm Source: Wikipedia 16 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The “customer” • The customer: Nature and the elements • Nature and the elements would decide: • Which user stories would determine the design • What defects the products had • Whether the product was acceptable • Open questions: • How to get customer participation prior to development • How to get customer participation during development In this analogy, the “executives” were the financial backers of the two expeditions 17 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner The menu

Satisfy the customer early and often • Welcome changing requirements • Deliver frequently Collaborate with the customer • Support, trust, and focus on motivated people • Face-to-face is best • Measure progress by what’s working • Work at a pace sustainable by all Value technical excellence and good design Simplicity is essential • Self-organizing teams produce the best results • Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral advancement 18 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner 1. Satisfy the customer early and often • Five main benefits • Effective management of customer anxiety • Effective management of executive anxiety • Gather data for strategic corrections • Reduce risk of misunderstandings • Create sense of accomplishment within team • For Amundsen and Scott, customer anxiety is a non-issue

• Both expeditions used depot strategy to move materiel South • Journeys provided early tests of transport • Issues for Scott were not addressed • Ponies slowed the entourage • Packing/unpacking cumbersome • Morale problems and conflict rife • Sledge meters jammed • Amundsen used the depot journeys as tests

Ponies behind their shelter in camp on the barrier

• Planned in the week prior to execution • One main journey prepositioned about one ton of supplies • Some other incidental prepositioning • Dogs, skiers performed well. Ponies didn’t. • Only one set of pony snowshoes • 7 of 8 ponies lost • Scott refuses to have the others slaughtered • In distress, Scott orders “One Ton Depot” laid • 24 days to reach 37 miles north of intended 80° latitude • Scott returns via dog sled • Depot marked with a single flag • All overworked with respect to diet • Low morale, toxic conflict, feeling of failure • Scott likely clinically depressed

First depot journey

• A year in the planning • Three journeys prepositioned three tons of supplies • First journey: 5 days round trip (80°) • First experience of long trips • Found a route to the top of the “Barrier” • Investigated its surface • Tested equipment: ski, sledges, harnesses, clothing, tents, sleeping bags

24 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Amundsen’s depot journey discoveries • Issues • Getting going in the morning took too long: 4 hours • Sledges too heavily built for the conditions • Boots too small and stiff • Dogs overworked • Innovations • Boots, sledges rebuilt • Transverse depot flagging Sir James Dewar (9 km East and West, (1842 – 1923) East axe cut) • Single 5-man tent built from two 3-man tents • Thermos flasks saved time at lunch 25 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Take-aways for: Satisfy the customer early and often

1. Team ownership of a problem produces better solutions 2. When working in unknown territory, retrospectives and reflection are essential 3. You can’t deviate from a plan you don’t have 4. Large numbers of tiny bits of time add up

Use the elements of the situation to your advantage rather than trying to overcome or defeat the situation • Overcoming a situation requires: • Elaborate apparatus • Extensive effort • In organizations, political capital • Exploiting features of the situation = finding a way to collaborate with it 28 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Elements of solar geometry

Earth’s rotation

South Pole

Framheim Cape Evans

Local noon sun

• On the trip South, travel by “day” • Start of day’s march: sun to their left • Noon: sun behind • End of day’s march: sun to their right • On the return trip North, travel by “day” also • Start of day’s march: sun to their right • Noon: sun ahead • End of day’s march: sun to their left • Disadvantages on return North • More difficult to see southbound trail, cairns, pennants • Greater risk of snow blindness 30 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Amundsen’s travel schedule

• On the trip South, travel by “day” • Start of day’s march: sun to their left • Noon: sun behind • End of day’s march: sun to their right • On the return trip North, travel by “night” • Start of night’s march: sun to their left • Midnight: sun behind • End of night’s march: sun to their right • Advantages • Easier to see old southbound trail, cairns, pennants • Less risk of snow blindness 31 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Canine coprophagia

• Coprophagia: the consumption of feces, from the Greek: • κόπρος copros (“feces”) • φαγεῖν phagein (“to eat”) • Scott’s and Amundsen’s approach in transit differed markedly • Amundsen’s approach in winter camp simplified waste disposal

Oskar Wisting with his dog team at the South Pole

Francis Davies constructing Photo: Herbert Ponting Source: Alexander Turnbull Library, Scott’s hut, 10 Jan 1911 National Library of New Zealand 33 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner Amundsen’s “fuel”

Killing seals for winter and travel rations. Before Source: Amundsen, The South Pole winter 1910-11 fell, they had 60 tons of seal meat. Two tons were in depots. 34 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner Take-aways for: Collaborate with the customer

16. Exploit situational momentum rather than try to overcome it 17. Leverage what’s available in the environment if you can 18. If you can’t alter the environment, learn how to use it

Satisfy the customer early and often • Welcome changing requirements • Deliver frequently Collaborate with the customer • Support, trust, and focus on motivated people • Face-to-face is best • Measure progress by what’s working • Work at a pace sustainable by all Value technical excellence and good design Simplicity is essential • Self-organizing teams produce the best results • Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral advancement 36 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner 9. Value technical excellence and good design The two vessels provide a good metaphor for the differences between the two expeditions

Fram, 402 grt from Amundsen, The South Pole Terra Nova, 764 grt from H.G. Lyons, British (Terra Nova) Antarctic Expedition 1910-1913 grt is “gross register tonnage” 1 grt is 100 ft3 of enclosed volume 37 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Comparing Terra Nova and Fram

Terra Nova Fram Tonnage 764 grt (gross register tons) 402 grt Length 187 ft (57 m) 127 ft 8 in (38.9 m) Beam 31.4 ft (9.6 m) 34 ft (10.36 m) Draft 19 ft (5.8 m) 15 ft (4.57 m) Power plant Coal-fired steam Marine diesel Power rating 140 bhp (104 kW) 180 bhp (241 kW) kW/grt 0.136 0.416

For ice work, vessel acceleration can be more valuable than top speed

Men

Source: Wikipedia 39 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner About Terra Nova • Built in 1884 as a whaler/sealer • Compound Steam Engine • 1 screw • Complement: 65 • Worked for 10 years • Used in several previous expeditions • Lost: 1943 off Greenland on a supply mission

40 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Terra Nova had issues • Coal-fired steam power • Inadequate refit: bilge pumps • Issues with loading • Overloaded • Overcrowded • Motor sledges stowed on deck • Vertical profile

Shackleton

Endurance beset on the way South Lost 21 November 1915 Photos: Frank Hurley. Source: Wikipedia 42 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner Fram under sail in Antarctic waters December 1911 Fram Source: Amundsen, The South Pole

• Purpose-built 1892 to Nansen’s specs • Rudder and prop could be raised • Used for previous expeditions • Fridtjof Nansen 1893-1896 • Otto Sverdrup 1898-1902 • Also used for rescue • Refit by Amundsen: third ocean-going diesel, and the first long voyage for a marine diesel • Engine installation: Diesels Motorer Co., Stockholm

• Hull presents very little purchase to enclosing ice • Designed to force ice pressure to lift vessel • Internal structures manage ice pressure

Hull section, engine room Hull section, amidships 44 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Fram’s power plant Fram Museum, Oslo Photo: (cc) Dr. Mirko Junge, 2010 Source: Wikipedia 45 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner Take-aways for: Value technical excellence and good design

39. For high-risk projects, avoid untried technology 40. Use whatever resources you can to master critical technologies 41. When you innovate, innovate with familiar technologies 42. Pay attention to the low-tech substrate

L to R: Lashly, Day, Evans, & Hooper Photo: Herbert Ponting Source: Alexander Turnbull Library, October 1911 National Library of New Zealand 48 CopyrightCopyright © 2018 © 2018 Richard Richard Brenner Brenner Two principles of simplicity

• Seek component attribute compatibility • Homogeneity of project assets isn’t always possible • When heterogeneity is necessary, seek compatibility • Seek component synergy • Use assets that work well together • Use assets that serve each other

Speeds of transport modes (1910):

Mode S A mph kph Comments Man walking • 3 4.8 Packed snow Horse walking • 3-4 4.8-6.4 Packed snow Sled dogs • • 6-7 9.7-11.3 Poor conditions Cross-country • • 10 16.1 Estimate; modern skier can ski sustain 14 mph (22.5 kph) Motor sledge • 4.5 7.2 Pulling a 3 US ton (2.7 metric ton) load

Pressure of transport modes:

Mode S A psi kPa Comments Human foot • 3 20.7 Horse hoof • 3-4 20.7-27.6 Dog paw • • 6-7 41.4-48.3 Cross-country ski • • 10 68.9 Motor sledge • 4.5 31.0 Estimated Tucker Sno-Cat 0.6 4.1

Helmer Hanssen & Sverre Hassel & Oskar Wisting Roald Amundsen

Hell’s Gate on Devil’s Glacier

44. Seek component attribute compatibility 45. Seek component synergy 46. Beware sponsors or leads who nurture pet projects

• Agile approaches provide advantages far beyond software or project management • We can learn as much from failures as from successes • We can learn much about project management from large efforts that aren’t projects • There’s much more to learn from these expeditions

• “Managing in Fluid Environments” • Better Software, September 2011 • Deals with adapting to change more rapidly • “The Psychology and Politics of Technical Debt” • Cutter Business Technology Journal, March 2016 • How to get control of technical debt • Download a free copy at: https://c4i.co/159 • “Leading in the Time of Data Breaches” • Cutter Business Technology Journal, August, 2014 • Deals with decision-making in cyber security • Download a free copy at: https://c4i.co/wf • “Creating High-Performance Virtual Teams” • Cutter Business Technology Journal, May 2013 • Fourteen recommendations for enhancing performance of virtual teams • Download a free copy at: https://c4i.co/wg 58 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Resources

• Politics, meetings, communication, and conflict • Articles at https://ChacoCanyon.com/pointlookout/politics.shtml • Tips ebook 303 Secrets of Workplace Politics at https://c4i.co/32z • Articles at https://ChacoCanyon.com/pointlookout/communication.shtml • Tips ebook 101 Tips for Communication in Emergencies at https://ChacoCanyon.com/products/techdivide.shtml • Tips ebook 101 Tips for Effective Meetings at https://ChacoCanyon.com/products/101tipsmeetings.shtml • Tips ebook 101 Tips for Managing Conflict at https://ChacoCanyon.com/products/101tipsconflict.shtml • Links collection: https://c4i.co/297 • Follow Rick on Twitter: @RickBrenner https://www.Twitter.com/RickBrenner • Connect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://LinkedIn.com/in/RickBrenner 59 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Subscribe to my free newsletter: Point Lookout • Weekly email newsletter • 500 words per edition • Topics: • Communications • Change • Meetings • Workplace politics • Project management • Conflict • Managing your boss • …and more • To subscribe • Use the form at the end of the handout, or • Hand me your business card, or • Sign up on the Web More info: https://www.ChacoCanyon.com/pointlookout 60 Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner Tell Me About This Presentation

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