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Solar Energy and the Problem of Path Dependency in Costa Rica's Solar Energy and the Problem of Path Dependency in Costa Rica’s Energy System Universität Hamburg Fakultät Wirtschaft und Sozialwissenschaften Dissertation zur Erlangung der Würde einer Doktorin der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften „Dr. phil.“ (gemäß der PromO vom 24. August 2010) vorgelegt von Daniela García Sánchez aus Costa Rica Hamburg, den 30.07.2015 Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Hein Zweigutachter: Prof. Dr. Detlef Nolte Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Prof. Wolfgang Hein, for his support and advice. His guidance lead me to the concepts of path dependency and governance approaches applied in political science, which became central to the present research. To my second supervisor, Prof. Anita Engels, a special appreciation for including me in her Dissertation Colloquium right from the beginning. My gratefulness to her and my colleagues in the colloquium in which I gained many insights that guided my research and steered me towards relevant literature on energy governance. I owe them my broader understanding of energy and climate change from a sociological and integrated perspective. I also wish to extend my thankfulness to the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), which granted me a three and a half-year scholarship for my doctoral studies in Germany. I too am indebted to the GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, and the University of Hamburg which offered me support during my research. I am especially grateful to Prof. Detlef Nolte, Prof. Bert Hoffmann and Julia Kramer, who made sure I was provided with outstanding research conditions and exchange opportunities with international researchers and European networks. To all the researchers and fellow doctoral students, who commented on portions of this thesis, at different stages, I want to especially acknowledge L. Holstenkamp, D. Vieira, A. Schilling-Vacaflor, A. Flesken, M. Carpes, I. Rosales, M. Kirschlager, M. Fraundorfer, H. Kurz and D. Avendaño for providing me with insightful comments on drafts of this manuscript. I further would like to express my appreciation to ICE, CNFL, ACOPE and all the interviewees; special thanks are due to S. Nandwani, R. Poveda and T. Fees for their valuable assistance. I also wish to recognize the CINPE-UNA, which provided me with administrative support in Costa Rica during the fieldwork. For the academic inspiration to initiate this PhD, I am especially obliged to Prof. Edgar Fürst, who encouraged me to carry on a PhD project in Germany. Thanks also to E. Ruano, A.Y. Chacón, and J. Jansen, who assisted with fieldwork and data collection. I am deeply thankful to my family and friends for all their support and encouragement, especially Almut S.V., Isabel R., Daniele V., Anna V., Ana S., Miriam S, Jorge G., Martin O., Mariana C., Sol G., Sole G., Simone S., Medha and Ana N., my endless admiration and eternal appreciativeness for the inspiration, advice, and support they provided at different stages of my research, in addition to many joy filled moments. To my dear roommates and DAAD fellows, Daisy and Denisse, endless thanks for their friendship and support from the very beginning. Finally, I am truly grateful to my boyfriend Daniel for his unconditional love, trust and enormous support in this journey. I also wish to extend my infinite gratitude to his family for their support and positive vibes. i Table of contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... i List of Tables ...........................................................................................................................vi List of Figures..........................................................................................................................vi List of Graphs ..........................................................................................................................vi List of Abbreviations ..............................................................................................................vii Part I Introduction, State of the Art, Theoretical and Methodological Approaches .................. 2 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Research Puzzle, Aims and Questions ........................................................................ 3 1.2 The Argument and Hypotheses .................................................................................. 5 1.3 Reasons to Study Path Dependency in Costa Rica’s Energy System ........................... 8 1.4 Delimitation of the Study ......................................................................................... 10 1.5 Conceptual Clarification .......................................................................................... 11 1.6 Carbon Neutrality in Costa Rica’s Energy System .................................................... 15 2. State of the Art: Energy Transition towards Low Carbon Energy Systems ....................... 20 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 20 2.2 Global Energy Governance ...................................................................................... 20 2.2.1 Global Climate Change .................................................................................... 20 2.2.2 Global Energy Industry Development............................................................... 23 2.2.3 Global Environmental Governance ................................................................... 24 2.3 National Energy Governance ................................................................................... 27 2.3.1 Carbon Neutrality and 100% Renewable Energy Goals .................................... 27 2.3.2 Economic Growth and Social Development...................................................... 28 2.3.3 Reliable Electricity Services ............................................................................. 30 2.3.4 Technology Cost and Incentives ....................................................................... 31 2.4 The Role of Change Actors in Energy Transformations ............................................ 34 2.4.1 Institutional and Political Transformations and Actors Involved ....................... 34 2.4.2 Historical Integrated Perspectives ..................................................................... 36 2.5 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................... 37 3 Theoretical Framework: Neoinstitutionalism and the Mechanism-Centered Approach ..... 40 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 40 3.2 Defining Path Dependency ...................................................................................... 40 3.2.1 Neoinstitutional Approaches of Path Dependency ............................................ 40 3.2.2 Elements of Path Dependency .......................................................................... 42 ii 3.2.3 Path Dependency as a Problem of Policy Outcome ........................................... 46 3.3 Efficiency, Political Power and Legitimation Mechanisms ....................................... 48 3.3.1 Efficiency Mechanisms .................................................................................... 49 3.3.2 Political Power Mechanisms ............................................................................ 50 3.3.3 Legitimation Mechanisms ................................................................................ 50 3.4 Elements of Path Breaking and “Imagined Futures” ................................................. 51 3.4.1 Governance at a National and Global Level ...................................................... 51 3.4.2 Future Expectations and imagined futures ........................................................ 55 3.5 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................... 57 4 Methodological Approach: Qualitative Within-Case Analysis .......................................... 59 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 59 4.2 Formulating Hypotheses .......................................................................................... 60 4.3 Combining Methods: Institutional Analysis and Process Tracing.............................. 62 4.3.1 Institutional Analysis Method........................................................................... 62 4.3.2 Process Tracing Method ................................................................................... 65 4.4 Data Collection and Analysis ................................................................................... 69 4.4.1 Historical Review ............................................................................................ 69 4.4.2 The Fieldwork Experience ............................................................................... 70 4.4.3 Data Analysis ................................................................................................... 73 4.5 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................... 74 Part II Historical Analyses of Decisions in the National Electricity
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