Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
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Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
CONTENTS 1. Macroeconomics: 2016-2021 ...... 5 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators: 2016-2021 ...... 5 1.1.1. GDP ...... 5 1.1.2. Fixed capital investment ...... 6 1.1.3. Industrial production ...... 7 1.1.4. Oil prices ...... 8 1.1.5. Currency exchange rate ...... 9 1.2. Aggregate impact of macroeconomic factors on the truck market ...... 10 2. Legal factors ...... 11 3. Truck production, 2016 HI – 2015 HI ...... 17 4. New truck market, 2015-2016 (January-June) ...... 20 4.1. New truck sales ...... 21 4.2. New truck sales by price segments ...... 22 4.3. New truck sales, ТОР-20 brands ...... 23 4.4. New truck sales, ТОР-20 models ...... 25 4.5. New truck sales, TOP-15 body builders ...... 27 4.6. New truck sales, TOP-15 body types ...... 28 4.7. New truck sales by axle ...... 29 4.8. New truck sales by gross vehicle weight (GVW) ...... 30 4.9. New truck sales by brand origin ...... 31 4.10. New truck sales, ТОР-10 countries of brand origin ...... 32 4.11. New truck sales by production origin ...... 33 4.12. New truck sales, ТОР-10 countries of manufacture ...... 34 4.13. New truck sales by engine type ...... 35 4.14. New truck sales by engine displacement...... 36 4.15. New truck sales, ТОР-20 regions ...... 37 5. Used truck market ...... 38 5.1. Used truck sales ...... 38 5.2. Used truck sales by price segments ...... 39 5.3. Used truck sales, ТОР-20 brands ...... 40 5.4. Used truck sales, ТОР-20 models ...... 42 5.5. Used truck sales, TOP-15 body types ...... 44 5.6. Used truck sales by axle ...... 45 5.7. Used truck sales by gross vehicle weight (GVW) ...... 46 5.8. Used truck sales by brand origin ...... 47 5.9. Used truck sales, ТОР-10 countries of brand origin ...... 48 5.10. Used truck sales by production origin ...... 49 5.11. Used truck sales, ТОР-10 countries of manufacture ...... 50 5.12. Used truck sales by engine displacement ...... 51 5.13. Used truck sales, ТОР-20 regions ...... 52 6. Truck dealer networks ...... 53 7. Truck price dynamics ...... 57 7.1. Average prices for new trucks by price segments ...... 57 7.2. Average prices for new trucks by brands ...... 57 7.3. Average prices for new trucks by body types ...... 57 7.4. Average prices for new trucks by gross vehicle weight ...... 58 7.5. Average prices for new trucks, TOP-20 regions ...... 58 8. Forecast for 2016-2021 ...... 59 8.1. New truck market forecast ...... 61 8.1.1. Total market capacity ...... 61 8.1.2. New Russian and foreign truck sales ...... 64 8.1.3. New truck sales by price segments ...... 67 8.1.4. New truck sales by gross vehicle weight ...... 70 8.1.5. New truck sales by body type ...... 77 8.1.6. New truck sales by axle configuration ...... 80 8.1.7. New truck sales by brands ...... 83 8.2. Truck production forecast ...... 91 8.2.1. Truck production ...... 91 8.2.2. Russian and foreign truck production ...... 94 8.2.3. Truck production by manufacturers ...... 97 9. Major events in operation of Russian and foreign truck manufacturers, II quarter of 2016 ...... 99
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
1. Macroeconomics: 2016-2021
1.1. Macroeconomic indicators: 2016-2021 In the first half-year of 2016 sales of new trucks fell by 4.30% on the same period of 2015. Sales decreased against the background of the unfavorable economic situation in Russia. According to consensus forecast of lead economists and analysts and forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, negative trends will continue till the end of 2016 and into 2017. A recovery of the Russian economy is to be expected in 2017-2021, as evidenced by the dynamics of projected values of the main macroeconomic indices.
1.1.1. GDP In the first half-year of 2016 the Russia’s GDP physical volume amounted to 98.8% compared to the same period of 2015. As of August 9, 2016, the second quarter data were not published. In 2016 GDP is expected to decrease by 1.85% in comparison with 2015. From 2017 to 2021 according to the consensus forecast of lead economists and analysts of companies and International Monetary Fund, GDP is expected to slightly increase..
Russia’s GDP until 2021, growth rate, % 10
8
6
4
2
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -2
-4
-6
-8
-10 GDP growth rate Forecast Trend Trend: forecast
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, International Monetary Fund, Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), Center of Development Institute, Analysis: Russian Automotive Market Research
According to IMF forecasts, in 2016 GDP per capita (at current prices) in Russia may reach 7 742 US dollars. By 2021 GDP per capita will not exceed 10 991 US dollars.
GDP per capita until 2021, US dollars (at current prices)
18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GDP per capita (at current prices), $ Forecast
Source: International Monetary Fund Analysis: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
1.2. Aggregate impact of macroeconomic factors on the truck market In addition to general macroeconomic factors such as GDP, fixed capital investment, industrial production, oil prices and the ruble exchange rate, other (specific) macroeconomic factors have an impact on the truck market. Considering them together, it is possible to conclude that in the first half-year of 2016 the following factors nega- tively affected the truck market: decrease in construction by 5.7%, decrease in retail trade turnover by 5.4%, decrease in fixed capital investment by 4.8% (QI 2016/QI 2015), growth of industrial producer prices by 3.4%.
Macroeconomic indicators affecting the truck market, 6 months of 2016/ 6 months of 2015, 6 months of 2015/ 6 months of 2014, year-over-year change, %
Freight turnover, growth rate 120
Fixed capiltal 110 Retail trade investment*, turnover, growth growth rate 100 rate
90
80
70 Agricultural Producer price 60 produce index, index growth rate
Wholesale trade Construction, turnover, growth growth rate rate
Mining production, growth rate
2016 (Jan-June)/2015 (Jan-June), growth rate,% 2015 (Jan-June)/2014 (Jan-June), growth rate,%
*First quarter data
Source: Federal State Statistics Service the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, Analysis: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
2. Legal factors
Legal Validity / Date Content Changes in Q2, 2016 Conclusion factors of introduction
Recycling Under the current leg- Validity: On May 11, 2016 coefficients Introduction of the tax islation recycling tax Beginning January for the calculation of recycling recycling tax for road shall be paid for each 1, 2014 till making tax for trailers were reduced. construction vehicles led wheeled vehicle amendments to nor- Trailers with GVW not exceed- to the fact that small and (chassis), each self- mative documents ing 10 tons were exempted medium-sized propelled vehicle and from the recycling tax. Rates manufacturers of these their trailers, imported Grounds: of the recycling tax for self- vehicles have to in the Russian Federa- Federal law No. 89- propelled vehicles and dump significantly raise prices tion or produced, man- FZ of June 24, 1998 trucks were not reduced. As of or stop production ufactured in the Rus- (as amended on July 18 2016 the basic rate of because tax rates in sian Federation, for 03.07.2016); the recycling tax in respect of some cases exceed the the purpose of envi- Decree of the RF self-propelled vehicles and vehicle cost. ronmental safety tak- Government No. trailers is 150 thousand rubles. ing into account their 1291 of December Increase in coefficients technical characteris- 26, 2013 used during the tics and wear. (as amended on calculation of the 11.05.2016); recycling tax for new Decree of the RF trucks results in the Government No. 81 growth of their retail of February 6, 2016; prices, which has a (as amended on negative impact on sales 11.05.2016). of these vehicles.
MTPL tariffs In Russia there is the Validity: In June 2016 amendments Limitation on the revi- law on compulsory in- new tariffs came into were made to MTPL law, ac- sion of MTPL tariffs will surance of civil liability force on April 12, cording to which the Central prevent their growth, of vehicle owners, 2015 till making Bank of the Russian which will have a posi- which sets limits of in- amendments to nor- Federation was forbidden to tive impact on the cost surance premiums for mative documents change MTPL tariffs within the of vehicle ownership. the damage caused to year after their establishment, New rules of independ- property, life or health Grounds: as well as rules to carry out an ent technical review and of each injured in the Federal law No. 40- independent technical review the transfer to electronic road accident. FZ of April 25, 2002 of the vehicle were refined. In MTPL insurance policies (as amended on particular, results of the inde- will not have a signifi- 23.06.2016); pendent technical review, in- cant impact on truck dependently conducted by the sales. victim, can be ignored when Directive of the Bank calculating insurance pay- of Russia No. 3604- ments in some cases. Insurers U of March 20, 2015 were obliged to inspect the damaged vehicle and carry out its independent technical re- view within five working days from the date of receipt of the application for insurance pay- ment. Vehicle drivers were allowed to submit the paper infor- mation on the conclusion of agreement on the compulsory insurance to the traffic police. Effective date of amend- ments to MTPL law: Septem- ber 1, 2016. Beginning January 1, 2017 in- surers will be obliged to con- clude the MTPL agreement in electronic form with every per- son applying to him with the application on the conclusion of this contract.
In 2017 the Central Bank will begin to apply supervisory measures (including suspen- sion of a license) to insurance companies, which unreasona- bly suspend sales of electronic MTPL insurance policies.
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
3. Truck production, 2016 HI – 2015 HI
In the first half of 2016, ХХ ХХХ trucks were produced in Russia, which is a Х.ХХ% increase on the produc- tion result of the same period of 2015. The production of trucks of Russian brands grew by Х.ХХ%, while that of trucks of foreign brands increased by ХХ.ХХ%. In January-June 2016 the share of trucks of Russian brands in the production structure decreased by Х.ХХ% in comparison with the same period of 2015 and made ХХ.ХХ%.
Truck production in Russia by brand origin, 2015/2016 H1
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0 2016 HI 2015 H1 Russian brands Foreign brands
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research (NAPI)
The key truck manufacturer in Russia is «KAMAZ» JSC, in the first half of 2016 its share was ХХ.ХХ% of the total truck production. In comparison with the same period of 2015 KAMAZ share increased by Х.ХХ%, in quan- titative terms the truck production grew by ХХ.ХХ%. The majority of trucks was produced at Gorky Automobile Plant and URAL Automobile Plant. In January-June 2016 production volumes of both these manufacturers decreased: GAZ – by Х.ХХ%, «URAL» - by ХХ.ХХ%. Their shares in the production structure also declined. A significant production growth in the first half of 2016 was shown by «Avtotor», the share of which in the production structure increased by Х.ХХ% and made Х.ХХ%. The most noticeable increase in the truck production took place at «Volvo Vostok» (+ХХХ.ХХ%) and Bryansk Automobile Plant (+ХХ.ХХ%).
Truck production results by manufacturer, 2015/2016 H1
Production 2016 Production 2015 Change, Manufacturer Region H1, units H1, units 2016/2015, %
KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny GAZ autmobile plant Nizhny Novgorod URAL automobile plant Miass Solllers-Isuzu Ulyanovsk Avtotor Company Group Kaliningrad DAIMLER KAMAZ Rus Naberezhnye Chelny Volvo Vostok Kaluga Iveco-AMT Miass MAN Truck and Bus Production Saint Petersburg Rus Bryansk Automobile Plant Bryansk Scania-Piter Saint Petersburg Other Total Source: Russian Automotive Market Research (NAPI)
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
4. New truck market, 2015-2016 (January-June)
In the first half of 2016, in particular, in January and February, the new truck market showed a sharp decline in comparison with the similar period of 2015, but in the next four months began to show the growth. The best result during the first half of the year was in April 2016, when sales of new trucks increased by ХХ.ХХ% in relation to April 2015. In general, following results of January-June 2016, the new truck market decreased by Х.ХХ% on the similar period of the last year. As in January-June 2015, the key segments in the market of new trucks remained dump trucks and tractor units. In January-June 2016 vehicles with these body types occupied ХХ.ХХ% and ХХ.ХХ%, respectively. These segments showed sales growth, which enabled them to increase their market shares in comparison with the similar period of the last year. In the first half of 2016 there was a significant increase in sales of fuel trucks (+52.08%) and crew buses (+ХХ.ХХ%). The sharpest decline in sales was shown by segments of concrete mixers, multifunctional road trucks and vacuum (suction) vehicles – more than ХХ%. It should be noted that during the reporting period the leader among manufacturers of truck superstructures changed. Neftekamsk automobile plant displaced Saransk dump truck plant, which was a leader in the first half of 2015. Over six months of 2016 sales of new trucks of Russian brands increased by Х.ХХ%, while those of foreign trucks decreased by ХХ.ХХ%. The share of truck of Russian brands in sales structure reached ХХ.ХХ%, which is a Х.ХХ% increase. The largest shares in the Russian new truck market belong to brands from Germany, Japan, Sweden and Belarus. KAMAZ, the leader in the new truck market in January-June 2016, increased its sales by ХХ.ХХ%, which is the best result among TOP-20 brands in the first half of this year. KAMAZ market share grew from ХХ.ХХ% to ХХ.ХХ%. The second place in a rating was occupied by GAZ with a market share of ХХ.ХХ%, the third place - by Ural (Х.ХХ%). Among foreign vehicles MAZ (Х.ХХ%), MAN (Х.ХХ%) and SCANIA (Х.ХХ%) have the largest market shares. In January-June 2016 only four TOP-20 brands showed positive sales dynamics – KAMAZ, GAZ, URAL and IVECO. Among other TOP-20 brands the sharpest decline in sales, by more than two-fold, was shown by RENAULT (-ХХ.ХХ%), DAEWOO (-ХХ.ХХ%), FORD (-ХХ.ХХ%), HINO (-ХХ.ХХ%) and DONGFENG (-ХХ.ХХ%). More than ХХ% of the new truck market was occupied by three models - KAMAZ 65115, KAMAZ 43118 and GAZON NEXT. In the first half of 2016 the share of locally produced trucks in the Russian market was ХХ.ХХ% (+Х.ХХ% in comparison with the similar period of the last year), but the number of these trucks slightly changed. The growth was due to the sharp, by ХХ.ХХ%, decline in sales of imported trucks. The market share of imported trucks decreased to Х.ХХ%, those manufactured in CIS - to Х.ХХ%. In January-June 2016 the low-cost segment of the new truck market showed the growth. In quantitative terms, it increased by Х.ХХ% (premium and medium price segments fell by ХХ.ХХ% and ХХ.ХХ%, respectively), the market share increased by Х.ХХ% ...
4.1. New truck sales
5 000 30,00%
4 500 20,00% 4 000 10,00% 3 500 3 000 0,00% 2 500 -10,00%
2 000 -20,00% 1 500 -30,00% 1 000 500 -40,00% 0 -50,00% January February March April May June
2015 (January-June) 2016 (January-June) Change, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
4.2. New truck sales by price segments
2015 (January-June) 2016 (January-June) Change in Change in Price segment Sales, units Share, % Sales, units Share, % sales, % share, % Low-cost Premium Medium Total Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Medium
Premium
Low-cost
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000
2016 (January-June) 2015 (January-June)
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
4.3. New truck sales, ТОР-20 brands
2015 (January-June) 2016 (January-June) Change in Change in Brand sales, % share, % Sales, units Share, % Sales, units Share, %
KAMAZ GAZ URAL MAZ MAN SCANIA ISUZU HYUNDAI VOLVO MERCEDES-BENZ IVECO HINO MITSUBISHI DAF JBC DONGFENG RENAULT FORD NAVECO DAEWOO Other Total
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
Change in sales of TOP-20 brands, %
KAMAZ IVECO URAL GAZ MAN ISUZU MERCEDES-BENZ MITSUBISHI VOLVO DAF MAZ SCANIA NAVECO HYUNDAI DONGFENG HINO FORD DAEWOO RENAULT
-85% -70% -55% -40% -25% -10% 5% 20% Change, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
4.15. New truck sales, ТОР-20 regions
2015 (January-June) 2016 (January-June) Change in Change in Region sales, % share, % Sales, units Share, % Sales, units Share, %
Moscow Moscow region Khanty-Mansi AR Tatarstan Republic Saint Petersburg Chelyabinsk region Irkutsk region Krasnodar region Sakha (Yakutia) Republic Bashkortostan Republic Rostov-on-Don region Samara region Nizhny Novgorod region Krasnoyarsk region Sverdlovsk region Voronezh region Stavropol region Yamalo-Nenets AR Komi Republic Perm region Other Total
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
6. Truck dealer networks
As of June 2016 there were ХХХХ centers selling trucks and ХХХХ centers servicing them in Russia. GAZ has the widest network for sales of trucks, comprising ХХХ dealer centers. The second place by the number of centers was occupied by SHAANXI, the third one – by DAEWOO with ХХХ and ХХ centers, respec- tively. The TOP-5 list by the number of sales centers also included HYUNDAI and MAZ. In terms of the number of centers servicing trucks GAZ, SHAANXI, VOLVO, HYUNDAI and MAZ are leaders.
Brand Number of sales centers Number of service centers
BAW DAEWOO DAF DONG FENG FAW FORD CARDO FOTON GAZ HINO HYUNDAI INTERNATIONAL ISUZU IVECO KAMAZ KRAZ MAN MAZ MERCEDES-BENZ MITSUBISHI RENAULT SCANIA SHAANXI TATRA URAL VOLVO Total Source: data by companies, Russian Automotive Market Research The largest number of truck sales centers is located in Moscow – ХХ dealerships. Moscow and Amur re- gions took the second and the third places by the number of truck dealer centers (ХХ and ХХ centers, respec- tively).
Region Number of sales centers Number of service centers
Altay region Amur region Arkhangelsk region Astrakhan region Belgorod region Bryansk region Vladimir region Volgograd region Vologda region Voronezh region Jewish AR … Yaroslavl region Total Source: data by companies, Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
KAMAZ showed the highest average sales per dealer center among truck brands – ХХХ vehicles. The second place in terms of this indicator was occupied by Volvo – ХХ trucks per dealer center. GAZ took the third place by a significant margin - ХХ sold trucks per dealer center. The TOP-5 list also included URAL and MAN with results of ХХ and ХХ sold trucks per dealer center, respectively.
Place in a rating Sales, Number of sales Average sales Brand I half of 2016 centers per center By number By average sales of centers BAW DAEWOO DAF DONG FENG FAW FORD CARDO FOTON GAZ HINO HYUNDAI INTERNATIONAL ISUZU IVECO KAMAZ KRAZ MAN MAZ MERCEDES-BENZ MITSUBISHI RENAULT SCANIA SHAANXI TATRA URAL VOLVO
Source: data by companies, Russian Automotive Market Research The highest average sales of trucks per one dealer center take place in Russian regions with small number of dealerships and rather high sales of trucks. These are primarily northern regions of Russia, in which different natural resources are mined. Yamal-Nenets AR is a leader among these regions: sales per one dealer center made 165 trucks.
Place in a rating Sales, Number of Average sales Region I half of 2016 sales centers per center By average By number sales of centers Altay region Amur region Arkhangelsk region Astrakhan region Belgorod region Bryansk region Vladimir region Volgograd region Vologda region Voronezh region Jewish AR Zabaikalye region … Yaroslavl region
Source: data by companies, Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
7. Truck price dynamics
7.1. Average prices for new trucks by price segments In the first half of 2016 the average price for new trucks of the low-cost segment amounted to Х.Х million rubles. The average cost of trucks of medium segment exceeded that of low-cost trucks by ХХХ thousand rubles and the average price for trucks of the premium segment exceeded that of low-cost brands by almost ХХ%.
Price segment Average price, I half of 2016, rubles
Low-cost Medium Premium
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
7.2. Average prices for new trucks by brands
Brand Average price, I half of 2016, rubles
KAMAZ GAZ URAL MAZ MAN SCANIA ISUZU HYUNDAI VOLVO MERCEDES-BENZ IVECO HINO MITSUBISHI DAF DONGFENG RENAULT FORD NAVECO DAEWOO
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
7.3. Average prices for new trucks by body types
Body type Average price, I half of 2016, rubles
Dump truck Tractor unit Dropside truck/curtainsider Van Tank Crane Refrigerator Multifunctional road truck Fuel truck Garbage truck Mobile workshop Isothermal van Concrete mixer Vacuum (Suction) truck
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
8. Forecast for 2016-2021
According to the research, carried out by Russian Automotive Market Research, the new truck market forecast is based on three scenarios: baseline, optimistic and pessimistic. Forecasting methodology implies the calculation of future values of sales in several stages.
New truck sales forecast, 2016, units
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
New truck sales, 2016 New truck sales, 2015 New truck sales forecast: optimistic scenario New truck sales forecast: baseline scenario New truck sales forecast: pessimistic scenario
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
The baseline scenario assumes that in 2016 the Russian GDP will decrease by 1.85%, the average annual URALS oil price will be 41.0 dollars per barrel, the average annual dollar exchange rate will be 65.88 rubles per US dollar. In 2016 industrial production will remain at the level of 2015, fixed capital investment may fall by 3.1%, pro- ducer prices will increase by 8.0%.
As for industries-consumers of trucks: in comparison with 2015, in 2016 the retail trade turnover may de- crease by 2.7%, the wholesale trade turnover – by 2.6%, construction – by 4.6%, freight transportation – by 2.3%, mining production will increase by 0.2% and agriculture - by 1.1%.
The optimistic scenario assumes …
The pessimistic scenario assumes …
Parameters of the forecast till 2021 are presented in the table.
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
Projected Values of Macroeconomic Indicators*, Affecting the Truck Market
Indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GDP, growth rate, %
Optimistic scenario 0.60 -3.70 -1.60 1.06 1.25 1.75 2.15 2.10
Baseline scenario 0.60 -3.70 -1.85 0.81 1.00 1.50 1.90 1.85
Pessimistic scenario 0.60 -3.70 -3.20 -1.10 0.80 1.30 1.70 1.60
Urals oil prices (world), USD/bbl
Optimistic scenario 97.60 51.31 46.00 56.00 60.00 63.00 66.00 71.00
Baseline scenario 97.60 51.31 41.00 51.00 54.00 57.00 61.00 64.00
Pessimistic scenario 97.60 51.31 32.00 35.00 36.00 38.00 41.00 43.00
US dollar exchange rate (average annual), Rub/USD
Optimistic scenario 38.38 60.94 64.88 57.30 57.70 56.30 56.60 59.00
Baseline scenario 38.38 60.94 65.88 65.42 66.10 65.80 66.00 67.10
Pessimistic scenario 38.38 60.94 66.88 69.54 70.22 69.92 70.12 71.22
Industrial production index, %
Optimistic scenario 101.7 96.6 101.0 101.7 102.6 103.2 103.1 102.8
Baseline scenario 101.7 96.6 100.0 101.1 101.7 102.1 102.3 102.0
Pessimistic scenario 101.7 96.6 98.40 100.1 100.7 101.3 102.0 101.7
Mining production index, %
Optimistic scenario 103.0 100.3 100.3 99.8 100.0 100.3 101.2 101.0
Baseline scenario 103.0 100.3 100.2 99.5 99.7 100.0 100.9 100.7
Pessimistic scenario 103.0 100.3 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.7 100.6 100.4
Agriculture production index, %
Optimistic scenario 101.4 103.0 101.6 101.8 102.2 102.5 102.8 102.4
Baseline scenario 101.4 103.0 101.1 101.3 101.7 102.0 102.3 101.9
Pessimistic scenario 101.4 103.0 100.6 100.8 101.2 101.5 101.8 101.4
Fixed capital investment, growth rate
Optimistic scenario 97.6 91.6 98.3 103.8 105.3 107.1 107.6 107.5
Baseline scenario 97.60 91.6 96.9 100.8 103.0 104.2 104.5 104.1
Pessimistic scenario 97.6 91.6 90.6 98.3 100.6 102.7 103.4 102.9
Retail trade turnover, growth rate
Optimistic scenario 102.5 90.0 98.3 102.1 103.6 105.5 106.2 106.0
Baseline scenario 102.5 90.0 97.3 101.1 102.6 103.3 104.4 104.2
Pessimistic scenario 102.5 90.0 95.1 99.5 101.7 102.1 102.4 102.0 * Projected values of macroeconomic indicators, not presented in the table, are established at the level, corresponding to general economic trends. Source: International Monetary Fund, RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecast, Center of Development Institute
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
8.1. New truck market forecast
8.1.1. Total market capacity In the first half of 2016 the new truck market decreased by Х.ХХ% in comparison with the same period of 2015. The market of new trucks fell by ХХ.ХХ% in 2015 in relation to the level of 2014. Taking into account the situation in 2014 – the first half of 2016 and forecasts on macroeconomic, legal and market factors, the forecast till 2021, parameters of which are presented in the table, was formed.
Truck sales, Year Scenario Change, % Grounds thousand units 2016 Optimistic scenario In 2016 expected … because of: Baseline scenario Pessimistic scenario 2017 Optimistic scenario In 2017 expected … due to: Baseline scenario Pessimistic scenario 2018 Optimistic scenario In 2018 expected … due to: Baseline scenario Pessimistic scenario 2019 Optimistic scenario In 2019 expected … due to: Baseline scenario Pessimistic scenario 2020 Optimistic scenario In 2020 expected … because of: Baseline scenario Pessimistic scenario 2021 Optimistic scenario In 2021 expected … because of: Baseline scenario Pessimistic scenario
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
New truck sales, URALS oil price, US dollar exchange rate till 2021: baseline scenario 200 $107,90 110 180 $97,60 90 160 65,88 ₽ 65,42 ₽ 66,00 ₽ 67,10 ₽ 66,10 ₽ 65,80 ₽ 70 140 60,94 ₽ $61,00 $64,00 120 $57,00 50 $54,00 $51,31 $51,00 38,38 ₽ 100 $41,00 31,82 ₽ 30 80 10 60 -10 40
-30 20
0 -50 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
New truck sales Forecast: baseline scenario Urals oil price, USD/bbl US dollar exchange rate, Rub/USD
Source: RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Forbes, Center of Development Institute, Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
8.1.2. New Russian and foreign truck sales
Based on the current negative trends in the Russian economy, in 2016 the share of Russian brands in total sales of new trucks is expected to increase by Х.ХХ%, according to the baseline scenario of the forecast. In the medium term, in case of recovery of the Russian economy, the share of Russian brands will gradually decrease to ХХ.ХХ% by 2021.
New Russian and foreign truck sales till 2021, %: baseline scenario 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Russian brands: baseline scenario Foreign brands: baseline scenario
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
8.1.3. New truck sales by price segments
According to the forecast, in 2016 the new truck market structure by price segments will change. Under the baseline scenario, the share of low-cost trucks may increase by X.XX%, the share of medium segment will de- crease by Х.ХХ% and the premium segment will lose Х.ХХ%. The possible reduction in the low-cost segment because of the growth of premium and medium ones may last from 2016 to 2021.
New truck sales by price segments till 2021, %: baseline scenario 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Low-cost segment: baseline scenario Premium segment: baseline scenario Medium segment: baseline scenario
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
8.1.4. New truck sales by gross vehicle weight In 2016 there will be the growth of shares of trucks with GVW from 32 to 40 tons (+Х.ХХ%), from 20 to 24 tons (+Х.ХХ%), from 18 to 20 tons (+Х.ХХ%), from 14 to 16 tons (+Х.ХХ%), from 12 to 14 tons (+Х.ХХ%), from 8 to 10 tons (+Х.ХХ%). Sales in segments of trucks with other GVW are expected to decrease in 2016: exceeding 40 tons (-Х.ХХ%), from 24 to 32 tons (-Х.ХХ%), from 16 to 18 tons (-Х.ХХ%), from 10 to 12 tons (-Х.ХХ%), from 6 to 8 tons (-Х.ХХ%) In the period from 2016 to 2021 sales of trucks with the following GVW will exceed those in 2015: exceeding 40 tons, from 32 to 40 tons, from 24 to 32 tons, from 18 to 20 tons, from 16 to 18 tons, from 10 to 12 tons, from 6 to 8 tons.
New truck sales by gross vehicle weight till 2021: baseline scenario 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
> 40 000 32 001 – 40 000 24 001 – 32 000 20 001 – 24 000 18 001 – 20 000 16 001 – 18 000 14 001 – 16 000 12 001 – 14 000 10 001 – 12 000 8 001 – 10 000 6 001 – 8 000
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
8.1.6. New truck sales by axle configuration
According to the forecast, in 2016 the structure of sales of new trucks by axle configuration will change. Under the baseline scenario of the forecast, the share of 4x2 vehicles may decrease by Х.ХХ%, and shares of 6x4 and 6x6 trucks will increase by Х.ХХ% and Х.ХХ%, respectively. From 2017 to 2021 sales shares of 4x2 and 6x4 trucks are expected to grow. Sales share of 6x6 trucks will fall to ХХ.ХХ% in 2016-2021. New truck sales by axle configuration till 2021: baseline scenario 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
4x2 6x4 6x6 Other
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Truck Market. 2016 First half-year results | August 2016
8.2. Truck production forecast
8.2.1. Truck production In the first half of 2016 the new truck production increased by Х.ХХ% in comparison with the same period of 2015. Taking into account the new truck sales forecast for 2016-2021, macroeconomic and legal factors affect- ing manufacturers, the truck production forecast till 2021 was formed.
Truck produc- Year Scenario Change, % Legal factors, affecting truck production tion, units 2016 Optimistic scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, Baseline scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, Pessimistic scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………. 2017 Optimistic scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, Baseline scenario ……………………………………………………, …………………………………………………...., Pessimistic scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………. 2018 Optimistic scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, Baseline scenario ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, Pessimistic scenario …………………………………………………….
2019 Optimistic scenario ……………………………………………………, …………………………………………………...., Baseline scenario ……………………………………………………, …………………………………………………...., Pessimistic scenario …………………………………………………….. 2020 Optimistic scenario 71 562 9.98 ……………………………………………………, Baseline scenario 65 351 7.89 ……………………………………………………, ……………………………………………………, Pessimistic scenario 59 596 5.79 ……………………………………………………. 2021 Optimistic scenario 77 074 7.70 ……………………………………………………, Baseline scenario 69 193 5.88 ……………………………………………………. Pessimistic scenario 62 013 4.06
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Truck production till 2021, thousand units 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Truck production Forecast: baseline scenario Forecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Russian Automotive Market Research