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An Evaluation of Property Values in NJ Transit Values

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An Evaluation of Property Values in NJ Transit Values Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 3 The Transit Village Initiative ................................................................................................. 3 Transit Village Site Visits ....................................................................................................... 8 Belmar Borough .............................................................................................................. 8 Background ............................................................................................................... 8 Recent planning and development activity ......................................................... 9 Site visit observations ............................................................................................. 9 Residential property value trends ......................................................................... 9 Bound Brook Borough ................................................................................................. 12 Background ............................................................................................................. 12 Recent planning and development activity ....................................................... 12 Site visit observations ........................................................................................... 12 Residential property value trends ....................................................................... 13 Burlington City ............................................................................................................... 14 Background ............................................................................................................. 14 Recent planning and development activity ....................................................... 15 Site visit observations ........................................................................................... 15 Residential property value trends ....................................................................... 15 Journal Square, Jersey City .......................................................................................... 18 Background ............................................................................................................. 18 Recent planning and development activity ....................................................... 19 Site visit observations ........................................................................................... 19 Residential property value trends ....................................................................... 20 Metuchen Borough ....................................................................................................... 22 Background ............................................................................................................. 22 Recent planning and development activity ....................................................... 22 Site visit observations ........................................................................................... 22 Residential property value trends ....................................................................... 23 Pleasantville City ........................................................................................................... 26 Background ............................................................................................................. 26 Recent planning and development activity ....................................................... 26 Site visit observations ........................................................................................... 27 Residential property value trends ....................................................................... 27 Evaluation of Residential Property Prices........................................................................ 31 Theory and methods .................................................................................................... 31 Data collected ................................................................................................................ 33 Educational variables (2000-2008) .................................................................... 33 Crime (1994-2008) ............................................................................................... 33 Ridership (2000-2008) ......................................................................................... 33 Population, Land Area, Population Density (2000-2008) .............................. 34 Tax Rates (2000-2008) ......................................................................................... 34 Number of Housing Units (2000-2008) ............................................................ 34 Property Valuation Variables (1994-2008) ....................................................... 34 Cross-sectional Variables ...................................................................................... 34 Analysis results .............................................................................................................. 35 Graphical analysis .................................................................................................. 35 Cross-sectional time-series analysis ................................................................... 36 Cross-sectional analysis ........................................................................................ 45 Summary and Conclusions of Residential Analysis ................................................ 52 Evaluation of Commercial Real Estate Prices ................................................................. 52 Data ................................................................................................................................. 52 Analysis Methods .......................................................................................................... 53 Results of Analysis ........................................................................................................ 54 Summary and Conclusions of Commercial Analysis .............................................. 57 Overall Summary of Results ............................................................................................... 57 Appendix A: Graphical Depiction of Changes in Housing Values ............................... 58 Appendix B: Graphical Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Prices ............................ 72 References .......................................................................................................................... 101 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Transit Village Stations .......................................................................................... 5 Table 2: Transit Village Site Visits ....................................................................................... 8 Table 3: Transit villages and divergence in property values from average trends .. 36 Table 4: Fixed Effects Models ............................................................................................ 37 Table 5: System Generalized Method of Moments model .......................................... 39 Table 6: System Generalized Method of Moments model with Windmeijer’s finite- sample correction for the two-step covariance matrix ................................................. 40 Table 7: Fixed Effects with AR1 correction ..................................................................... 41 Table 8: Additional models, Fixed Effects with AR1 correction .................................. 43 Table 9: Additional models, Fixed Effects with AR1 correction .................................. 44 Table 10: Log-Linear regression of the determinants of change in the indexed average equalized property value for New Jersey municipalities between 2000 and 2008 ....................................................................................................................................... 48 Table 11: Log-Linear regression of the determinants of change in the indexed average equalized property value for New Jersey municipalities between 2000 and 2008 (with Transit Village binary variable instrumented) ........................................... 50 Table 12: Log-Linear regression of the determinants of change in average residential property sales price for New Jersey municipalities between 2000 and 2008 ....................................................................................................................................... 51 Table 13: Comparable stations along same rail line .................................................... 54 Table 14: Models with Retail Rental Rates ..................................................................... 55 Table 15: Models with Office Rental Rates ..................................................................... 56 Table 16: Models with Industrial Rental Rates .............................................................. 56 Executive Summary This report provides an analysis of whether the New Jersey Transit Village Initiative has led to increases in property values in municipalities that have joined the program. Our results suggest that for residential property values there is likely an association between
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