Report Suggests Driverless Tractor Sales Could Reach $31B by 2024
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September 15, 2016 Vol. 22, Issue 9 • Fendt Going ‘Full Line’ • Titan Lowers Backlog • Weak Sales in August Report Suggests Driverless Tractor Sales Could Reach $31B by 2024 “The impact of driverless tractors Worldwide Driverless Tractor Revenue & Shipments on farm operations will be dramatic, and the vehicles hold the potential 2015-2024 to provide a huge boost to produc- $35,000 180,000 tivity,” says Manoj Sahi of Tractica. In Revenue Shipments 160,000 a report issued on Sept. 4, following $30,000 the introduction of Case IH and New 140,000 $25,000 Holland’s concept autonomous tractors 120,000 at the Farm Progress Show on Aug. 30., $20,000 Tractica expects rapid growth of driver- 100,000 less farm vehicles starting about 2020. $15,000 80,000 (Units) Based in Boulder, Colo., Tractica is a ($Millions) 60,000 market intelligence firm that focuses $10,000 on human interaction with technol- 40,000 $5,000 ogy. In 2015, the company conducted 20,000 an extensive study of the agricultural robot market opportunity, the find- $0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 2023 2024 ings of which were published in a report entitled Agricultural Robots. One of the key findings of Tractica’s 2015 Agricultural Robots report was the forecast that driverless tractor revenue would reach $30.7 billion by 2024. Sahi said, “The research was focused Source: Tractica Continued on page 2 Early Orders of Farm Machinery Remain Tough to Come By Although a few more dealers say their Early Orders 2017 vs. 2016 vs. 2015 vs. 2014 early equipment orders are up com- 2017 2016 2015 2014 pared to this time last year, overall, new farm machinery order books Up 10% or more 1.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% continue on a downward slide that Up 6-10% 1.0% 0.4% 1.8% 7.2% began 3 years ago. Up 1-5% 12.2% 6.5% 7.5% 20.0% Slightly more than 14% of North Same as Last Year 17.3% 29.8% 31.3% 45.0% American ag equipment dealers are reporting early orders are in bet- Down 1-5% 15.7% 10.5% 13.9% 16.7% ter shape than they were when Ag Down 6-10% 14.2% 12.1% 16.0% 11.1% Equipment Intelligence conducted Down 10% or more 38.6% 40.7% 28.4% 0.0% its 2016 Dealer Business Outlook & Source: Ag Equipment Intelligence Trends survey last September. This compares with 7% of dealers who that their early orders had increased ing decreases in their order books for reported an increase in early orders from the previous year. 2017. This year nearly 70% of dealers 12 months ago and about 10.5% the The small increase in dealers report- say their early orders, or presells, for year before for 2015. These percentag- ing higher early orders for new 2016 new 2017 equipment are lower than es are way down from the more than equipment is pretty much offset with they were last year, which continues a 27% of dealers who reported in 2014 a larger percentage of dealers report- Continued on page 3 The contents of this report represent our interpretation and analysis of information generally available to the public or released by responsible individuals in the subject companies, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. It does not contain material provided to us in confidence by our clients. Individual companies reported on and analyzed by Lessiter Media, may be clients of this and other Lessiter Media services. This information is not furnished in connection with a sale or offer to sell securities or in connection with the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Report Suggests Driverless Tractor Sales Could Reach $31B by 2024 ...Continued from page 1 on the applications, market drivers and vider responsible for developing and stationary or moving obstacles in its key challenges that could impact the refining autonomous vehicle technol- path and would stop on its own until growth of agricultural robots. One of ogy for concept autonomous tractors, the operator, notified by audio and the key findings of our report was the including the Case IH Magnum and visual alerts, assigns a new path.” forecast that driverless tractor revenue New Holland T8 NHDrive. According According to Tractica, at present, would reach $30.7 billion by 2024. to Tractica, ASI, which is based in apart from CNH Industrial and ASI, Like any other autonomous or semi- Utah, is the industry leader in off-road there are other companies including autonomous (supervised) unmanned autonomous solutions with nearly 2 a few startups that have been actively ground vehicles (UGVs), driverless decades of experience in the domain. working to produce marketable driv- tractors are programmed to navigate, Sahi said, “As a smaller and more erless tractors and have made strides understand their position, determine agile technology developer, ASI is able toward substantial prototypes and speed and avoid obstacles, such as to partner with large global compa- testing. The prominent ones among people, animals or objects in the field, nies such as CNH Industrial to help these are John Deere, AGCO and while performing their tasks.” them go to market with multi-vehicle Autonomous Tractor Corp. According to Case IH Brand autonomy faster and more economi- Sahiwent on to say, “In Tractica’s President Andreas Klauser, the con- cally than they could in any other way. analysis, driverless tractors are cer- cept was created to validate the “These tractors will have the ability tainly on the right track and the technology and to collect customer for autonomous seeding, planting and future looks promising. feedback regarding their interest and tillage for broadacre and row-crop “Tractica believes the driverless need for future autonomous products farming. ASI believes that its advanced tractor market will continue to evolve for their operations. “In many parts of path planning technology, along with relatively quickly and by 2020, the the world, finding skilled labor during obstacle detection, would enable farm- market opportunities should be peak use seasons is a constant chal- ers to manage their fields more effi- attractive enough to pull in many of lenge for our customers,” Klauser said. ciently and safely,” said Sahi. “Through the non-agricultural companies that Autonomous Solutions Inc. (ASI) the use of radar, lidar and onboard are currently involved with driverless is CNH Industrial’s technology pro- video cameras, the vehicle could sense technology,” he said. Claas Acquires Shredlage Technology for Producing Forage A little over a year since licensing over an inch — and then processing chopped product many times over the U.S.-developed Shredlage system it on board with specially configured in this way is said to significantly of processing forage corn, Claas has corn cracking rollers. improve bacterial fermentation after acquired the technology outright The saw-tooth profile with a coun- ensiling and during digestion in the from its owners. Dairy nutritionists ter-rotating spiral groove is designed cow’s rumen. Increased milk yield, Ross Dale and Roger Olson will con- to fully break down the cob pieces lower feed costs through a reduction tinue to advise the German manufac- in concentrates and improved animal turer on successful adoption of the “We are convinced that health are principal goals. technology by dairy farmers. Shredlage LLC promoted the tech- Claas board member Hermann shredlage delivers nology and supplied processing Lohbeck said, “We are convinced that a clear benefit to rollers for installation in forage har- shredlage delivers a clear benefit to customers. This adds vesters. The license agreement — customers. By taking over this well the finishing touches to which has now been overtaken by known brand, we are adding the fin- our technology concept the acquisition — allowed Claas to ishing touches to our technology for self-propelled produce the MCC-Shredlage cracker concept for self-propelled forage har- assembly alongside existing corn vesters. We are thrilled that the inven- harvesters...” cracking processors. tors of the technology will remain on These are manufactured at the board to advise us and our customers.” and crush and fully crack open the Claas Industrietechnik factory in Shredlage LLC was formed in 2008 kernels, while peeling “bark” from the Paderborn, Germany, for the Jaguar to promote a process that involves stalk material, which is shredded in a self-propelled forage harvesters sup- chopping forage corn into unusually longitudinal direction. plied through Claas of North America long sections of 26-30 mm — a little Enlarging the surface area of the and its dealers. AG EQUIPMENT INTELLIGENCE is published monthly for the to the address shown above. U.S., Canada and Mexico print farm equipment industry by Lessiter Media, 16655 W. Wisconsin subscriptions are $499 per year. International print subscriptions Ave., Brookfield, WI 53005. © 2016 by Lessiter Media. All rights are $599 per year. Send subscription orders to: Ag Equipment reserved. Reproduction in any form of this newsletter content Intelligence, P.O. Box 624, Brookfield, WI 53008-0624. Fax: is strictly forbidden without the prior written consent of the pub- 262/786-5564. Phone: 262/782-4480 or 866/839-8455 (U.S. lisher. Please send any address changes as soon as possible only). E-mail: [email protected]. 2 Ag Equipment Intelligence/September/2016 Early Orders of Farm Machinery Remain Tough to Come By...Continued from page 1 3 year run of significant declines. Co. initiated the monthly Dealer 2017 Ag Equipment Early In 2014, only 28% reported lower Sentiments & Business Conditions order levels than the previous year. Update survey in April 2011, equip- Orders vs. 5 Years Ago This percentage grew to 53% in 2015 ment delivery times were a major + 11-20% + 31% or more and 63% in 2016.