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DROUGHTS and AGRICULTURE in LEBANON Public Disclosure Authorized CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, and RISK MANAGEMENT Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

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DROUGHTS and AGRICULTURE in LEBANON Public Disclosure Authorized CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, and RISK MANAGEMENT Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DROUGHTS AND AGRICULTURE IN LEBANON Public Disclosure Authorized CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DORTE VERNER, MAXIMILLIAN ASHWILL, JENS CHRISTENSEN, Public Disclosure Authorized RACHAEL MCDONNELL, JOHN REDWOOD, IHAB JOMAA, MAURICE SAADE, RANDA MASSAD, ALI CHEHADE, AHMAD BITAR, AND DAVID TREGUER This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The colors, boundaries, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this report do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ABBREVIATIONS Exchange Rate 1 US Dollar = 1511 Lebanese Pounds (Lira) AEZ Agro-Ecological Zones AHZ Agriculture Homogeneous Zoning ALADIN Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational AR5 Fifth Assessment Report AWS Automated Weather Station AWSN Automated Weather Station Network C Celsius CCLM Climate Community Limited-area Modelling CDAS Climate Data Assimilation System CERFACS European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation CHIRPS Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation cm centimeters CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CNRM National Centre for Meteorological Research CORDEX-Europe European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment CRU Climate Research Unit DJF December, January, February DRM Disaster Risk Management dS/m deciSiemens per meter E-OBS the E-OBS gridded dataset EC-EARTH European Centre Earth Modelling System ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EU European Union EWS Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations i GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GNI Gross National Income GPRS General Packet Radio Service GPS Global Positioning System GWP Global Water Partnership ha hectare HadGEM Met Office Hadley Centre Earth System Model has hectares HIRHAM High-Resolution Limited Area Model HMNDP High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policy ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICBA International Center for Biosaline Agriculture ICHEC Irish Centre for High-End Computing IDMP Integrated Drought Management Program IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPSL Institut Pierre Simon Laplace IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management JJA June, July, August km kilometer KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut LARI Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute LARI-LEB LARI’s Early Warning System smart phone application m meter MAM March, April, May MENA Middle East and North Africa mm millimeter MO Mediterranean Oscillation MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOE Ministry of Environment MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre MOI Mediterranean Oscillation Index MPI-M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology MT Metric Ton NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NAOI North Atlantic Oscillation Index NAP National Action Plan NDMC National Drought Mitigation Center NDP National Drought Policy NFT Nutrient Film Technique ONI Oceanic Niño Index RACMO Danish Regional atmospheric climate model ii DROUGHTS AND AGRICULTURE IN LEBANON: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT RCP Representative Concentration Pathways RDMS Regional Drought Monitoring System REMO REgional MOdel RMSE Root Mean Square Errors RPCA Rotated Principal Component Analysis SMS Short Message Service SON September, October, November SPI Standard Precipitation Index TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission UN United Nations UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID Unites States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture W/m2 Watt per square meter WeMO Western Mediterranean Oscillation WMO World Meteorological Office WRF Weather Research and Forecasting Model DROUGHTS AND AGRICULTURE IN LEBANON: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT iii CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi OVERVIEW 1 INTRODUCTION 11 1 Methodology 11 Road Map 12 LEBANON’S AGROCLIMATIC ZONES 2 AND AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 13 Agroclimatic Zones 13 LEBANON’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 18 3 Agricultural Context 18 Climate Impacts and Requirements of Key Crops 20 Fruit Trees 20 Olive Trees 24 Cereals 24 Food Legumes 25 Vegetables 26 v Minor and Underused Crops 26 Aromatic, Medicinal, and Wild Edible Plants 27 Seed systems 28 LEBANON’S CLIMATE 29 4 Context 29 Temperatures 31 Precipitation 33 Climate Change 33 DROUGHT 36 5 Definitions 36 Worldwide 37 MENA 38 Lebanon 39 Recent Observed Events 40 Drought Impacts on Cropping Systems 43 ENSO, TELECONNECTIONS, AND OTHER 6 DRIVERS OF DROUGHT 45 ENSO 45 Drought and Teleconnections in MENA 49 Analyzing Drought and Teleconnection Links 50 PREDICTING FUTURE WEATHER PATTERNS 57 7 IPCC Projections 57 The Hydrological Cycle 59 CORDEX-Europe Projections 59 Other Extreme Events 61 vi DROUGHTS AND AGRICULTURE IN LEBANON: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT DROUGHT MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES 8 AND POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS 67 Challenges 67 Weak Institutional Framework 67 Lack of Scope and Focus 68 Poor Information 69 Weak Subnational Capacity 70 Innovative Interventions 70 Early Warning Systems 71 Hydroponics 75 MANAGING DROUGHT IN LEBANON – TODAY 9 AND TOMORROW 79 Immediate Steps 80 Longer-term Actions 82 BIBLIOGRAPHY 85 DROUGHTS AND AGRICULTURE IN LEBANON: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT vii LIST OF BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES BOXES BOX 3.1 Lebanon’s Cannabis production. 21 BOX 3.2 Lebanon’s Doomsday Seed Bank 28 BOX 7.1 Predictions versus Projections 62 FIGURES FIGURE 0.1 Lebanon’s Bioclimatic Zones 2 FIGURE 0.2 Agro-homogeneous Zones of Lebanon 3 FIGURE 0.3 Annual Rainfall Anomaly in Lebanon Compared to the Mean Annual Total Rainfall for the Period 1976–2005 4 FIGURE 0.4 Projections of Mean Global Surface Air Temperatures from 1986–2050 (relative to 1986–2005) under All RCP Scenarios 5 FIGURE 0.5 LARI’s Automated Weather Station Network locations 10 FIGURE 2.1 Lebanon’s geography. 14 FIGURE 2.2 Lebanon’s Bioclimatic Zones 15 FIGURE 2.3 Agro-homogeneous zones of Lebanon. 17 FIGURE 3.1 Lebanon’s Agricultural Land Types 19 FIGURE 3.2 Cultivation of Olive Trees by Governorate 24 FIGURE 4.1 (a) Digital Elevation Model of Lebanon (left), (b) Meteorological Stations with Available Data (right) 30 FIGURE 4.2 Mean Average Global Monthly Temperature Anomalies (thin lines) and the 10-Year Running Mean (heavy lines) Since 1850 31 FIGURE 4.3 Mean Global Surface Air Temperatures by Climate Models 32 FIGURE 4.4 Mean Annual Precipitation and Temperature over Lebanon 33 FIGURE 4.5 Mean Monthly Precipitation in Millimeters from 1961 to 1990 for Three Lebanese Climate Data Series 34 FIGURE 4.6 Annual Mean Temperature Series for Beirut and Tripoli 35 FIGURE 4.7 Annual Mean Precipitation Series for Beirut and Tripoli 35 FIGURE 6.1 Values of ONI from 1955 to the Present 46 FIGURE 6.2 Temperature Correlation Maps 47 FIGURE 6.3 Precipitation Correlation Maps 48 FIGURE 6.4 SPI Values for Beirut, Tripoli, Ksara Obsy, Rayack, and Cedars 54 FIGURE 6.5 Comparison of Observed Precipitation for the 9-Month Agricultural Season (September to May), with RMSE and Correlation 55 FIGURE 6.6 Percentage Precipitation Anomalies in Lebanon for Autumn and the Agricultural Seasons 56 FIGURE 6.7 Percentage Precipitation Anomalies in Lebanon for Spring and the Agricultural Seasons 56 viii DROUGHTS AND AGRICULTURE IN LEBANON: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT FIGURE 7.1 Mean Annual Temperature Change for 2081–2100 versus 1986–2005, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models for the RCP8.5 Scenario 58 FIGURE 7.2 Mean Annual Relative Precipitation Change During 2081–2100 versus 1986–2005, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models for the RCP8.5 Scenario 59 FIGURE 7.3 Mean Projected Changes for Winter (October–April) 60 FIGURE 7.4 Annual Total Rainfall Change Calculated as a Percentage Difference Between 2031–2050 and 1976–2005 62 FIGURE 7.5 Annual Rainfall Anomaly in Lebanon Compared to the Mean Annual Total Rainfall for the Period of 1976 to 2005 63 FIGURE 7.6 Spatial Distribution of Annual Consecutive Dry Days in Lebanon 63 FIGURE 7.7 Projected Percentage Change in 5-Day Extreme Rainfall (relative to the 1981–2000 reference period) from the CMIP5 Models on the Maximum Annual 5-Day Precipitation Accumulation 64 FIGURE 7.8 CMIP5 Multi-model Mean Geographical Changes (relative to a 1981–2000 reference period in common with CMIP3) under RCP8.5 and a 20-Year Smoothed Time Series for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 65 FIGURE 8.1 The LARI-LEB Smartphone Application 72 FIGURE 8.2 Automated Weather Station Network Process 73 FIGURE 8.3 Distribution of LARI’s Automated Weather Stations 74 FIGURE 8.4 Bekaa Valley’s Land Availability 78 TABLES TABLE 2.1 Vegetation and Bioclimatic Zones of Lebanon and Forest Types 14 TABLE 3.1 Number of Holdings and Area of Cultivated and Irrigated Cultivated Land 19 TABLE 3.2 Major Agricultural Production Sectors in Lebanon, 2010 20 TABLE 3.3 Top Five Agricultural Commodity Exports from Lebanon,
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