Spatial Poverty Traps and Ethnic Conflict Traps: Lessons From

Overseas Development Institute Spatial poverty traps and ethnic conflict traps Lessons from northern Ghana’s ‘Blood Yams’ Jay Oelbaum ODI Working Paper 324 CPRC Working Paper 164 Results of ODI research presented in preliminary form for discussion and critical comment ODI Working Paper 324 CPRC Working Paper 164 Spatial poverty traps and ethnic conflict traps Lessons from Northern Ghana’s ‘Blood Yams’ Jay Oelbaum December 2010 Overseas Development Institute 111 Westminster Bridge Road London SE1 7JD www.odi.org.uk Acknowledgements This paper is one of a series on spatial poverty traps that has been published jointly by the Overseas Development Institute and the Chronic Poverty Research Centre. The series has been edited by Kate Bird and Kate Higgins, with support from Tari Masamvu and Dan Harris. It draws largely on papers produced for an international workshop on Understanding and Addressing Spatial Poverty Traps, which took place on 29 March 2007 in Stellenbosch, South Africa. The workshop was co-hosted by the Overseas Development Institute and the Chronic Poverty Research Centre and jointly funded by the Overseas Development Institute, the Chronic Poverty Research Centre, Trocaire and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation. Extremely valuable comments on this paper were contributed by Kate Bird, Ted Robert Gurr, Benjamin Talton and anonymous referees at the Overseas Development Institute. The paper was also enriched by the helpful comments and questions of participants at the international workshop ‘Understanding and Addressing Spatial Poverty Traps’. The author wishes to thank the workshop sponsors. The author likewise gratefully acknowledges E.O. Laryea Brown, Ben Ephson, Franco Agomma, M.I. Chambas and Jon Kirby for their assistance with fieldwork in northern Ghana. Errors of omission and commission in this paper are the exclusive responsibility of the author. ISBN 978 1 907288 08 1 Working Paper (Print) ISSN 1759 2909 ODI Working Papers (Online) ISSN 1759 2917 © Overseas Development Institute 2010 Readers are encouraged to quote or reproduce material from ODI Working Papers for their own publications, as long as they are not being sold commercially. As copyright holder, ODI requests due acknowledgement and a copy of the publication. This document is also an output from the Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC) which is funded by UKaid from the UK Department for International Development (DFID) for the benefit of developing countries. The CPRC gratefully acknowledges DFID’s support. The analysis and views presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ODI, CPRC, DFID or any other funders. ii Contents Acronyms iv Executive summary v 1. Introduction 1 1.1 The Guinea Fowl War 2 1.2 Nanumba district 2 1.3 Spatial poverty as a cause of war 3 1.4 Poverty reduction as a cause of war 4 2. The causes and origins of the Guinea Fowl War 7 2.1 The proximate cause 7 2.2 Demographic, economic and ethnic structure in brief 7 2.3 Patterns of subordination and resistance 8 3. Spatial dimensions of poverty and the Guinea Fowl War 11 3.1 The poverty impact of reform in the NR 11 3.2 Expenditure switching policies 11 3.3 Subsidy removal 13 3.4 Changes in overall strategy 14 4. Reform, poverty reduction and the upending of Ghana’s ranked system 16 4.1 Economic change and the benefits of adaptive failure 16 4.2 State versus market-oriented production in Northern Ghana 17 4.3 The growth of the commercial and marketing networks of the Konkomba 19 4.4 The commodification of land 20 References 24 iii Acronyms CRISE Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GLSS Ghana Living Standards Survey GSS Ghana Statistical Service GTZ German Technical Cooperation IFI International Financial Institution KOYA Konkomba Youth Association MOFA Ministry of Food and Agriculture NA Native Authority NGO Non-governmental Organisation NR Northern Region NT Northern Territories NTE Non-traditional Export ODI Overseas Development Institute PAD Policy Analysis Division PER Public Expenditure Review PIP Public Investment Programme PNP People's National Party PPMED Policy Planning Monitoring and Evaluation Department SAP Structural Adjustment Programme iv Executive summary This paper considers linkages between the spatial dimensions of poverty and war in the conflict-prone Northern areas of Ghana. More specifically, the paper focuses on the Northern Region proper. The investigation centres upon one specific conflict, the ‘Guinea Fowl War’ of 1994, which was the most violent episode in the country’s history. The work examines how this conflict relates to changes in the region’s poverty profile. It does so by paying particular attention to agricultural production, consumption poverty and infrastructure accessibility in the Northern Region under economic reforms. The paper produces a counterintuitive conclusion about the relationship between changes in poverty, interethnic inequality and warfare in this region. Many existing arguments about the relationship between remoteness, poverty and insecurity established in the conflict and spatial poverty literature are valid. However, in contradistinction to most analyses, the evidence presented here indicates that the war in question was not caused primarily by the increasing marginalisation of economic agents in the region but rather by pressures related to increasing opportunities for income generation, poverty reduction and national integration under economic reform. These gains created friction in the region’s ranked ethnic system and put local exclusionary tenure and politico-institutional arrangements under strain. The analysis has important implications for strategies to escape from spatial poverty traps because it finds that the most effective route for escaping poverty – the participation in agriculture markets – also generates conflict. Conflict in turn generates poverty and reverses economic gains. This fact is particularly worrisome because the crop in question in this instance, the yam, is both traded and locally consumed. This crop is thus understood to be an especially valuable vehicle of pro-poor growth. Notwithstanding the fact that the paper can be interpreted as dismal in its outlook, the analysis holds out useful lessons for stakeholders. Five general recommendations are made here based on the findings laid out in this work. These are cast at a broad level of generality but can direct donor agendas. 1. The literature on pro-poor growth has identified the improvement of land-related property rights and more transparent land markets as critical to pro-poor growth and the diversification of rural incomes. The evidence from Northern Ghana on the relationship of war to issues of land tenure suggests that addressing this issue must be the first priority for stakeholders in the Northern Region. I cannot prescribe here how these conflicts and tenure arrangements can be resolved. It is worth noting, however, that standard notions of private property do considerable violence to traditional tenure arrangements. Simultaneously, the statement that land reforms and titling schemes should respect tradition (e.g. Cord, 2007) is also deeply problematic, given the extent to which exclusion and violence are implicated in ‘tradition’. As a first step, it will be necessary to have a more detailed study of how land markets actually function in practice. 2. A related observation concerns power asymmetries between central governments and remote rural areas. The government’s mixed signals about its intentions for the region played a key role as a driver of conflict, inflaming the aspirations and expectations of acephalous groups, while generating resistance and anger from chiefs to whom the government was ultimately beholden. This observation holds important implications for those concerned with remote areas. It is fair to say that such regions require greater influence to leverage in investment and attention from the centre. At the same time, an important lesson from this case might also be that, in patrimonial states, the centre needs greater infrastructural and possibly coercive power to deal with local notables. As such, any approach to tackling spatial poverty must focus on improving infrastructural capacity and also coercive power at the core as well as the periphery of African states. 3. There is a widespread assumption in the current economics of conflict literature that widening economic inequalities between distinct reference groups cause war (see especially work associated with the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE). In point of fact, this is a deeply problematic assumption. It is difficult to predict ex ante what the v conflict impact widening or decreasing economic inequalities will be. The prescription of directing resources to the most deprived areas for security reasons must be qualified. Assumptions of unit homogeneity should be abandoned and the knowledge that distinct ethnic systems have equally distinct dynamics must inform poverty reduction strategies. Donors must make understanding local ethnic systems a priority in poverty reduction. 4. The emergence of conflict should not necessarily be viewed as a development failure. The case demonstrates that conflict emerges as a result of development and poverty reduction. This means that stakeholders should anticipate conflict in zones emerging from spatial poverty and, notwithstanding the high costs, should not

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