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Retail (Overweight) July 6, 2012 2H12 Outlook Report Industry Report Retail (Overweight) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Mina Kim +822-768-4163 [email protected] Jieun Lee +822-768-3265 [email protected] Sunny days ahead In 2H12, we anticipate domestic consumption to pick up, driven by improving consumer sentiment and the structural growth of new retail channels, along with low base effect. Domestic consumption stagnated during 1H12, affected by factors such as declining disposable income, dampened consumer sentiment (amid an economic slump), and high base effect. In particular, spending restraint (due to wide economic uncertainties), greater household debt burdens (resulting from jeonse surges), and declining asset values drove down consumption and sentiment. For the department store segment, we expect a considerable recovery in 2H. We forecast department store sales growth to pick up starting in 3Q12 (after showing deterioration since 3Q11). With consumers becoming increasingly price-conscious, SPA (specialty-store retailers of private label (PL) apparel) brands and low-end cosmetics are likely to stay strong in 2H (regardless of economic conditions). We attribute this to their successful efforts to provide quality products at reasonable prices and effective marketing. Given their strong competitiveness, we expect these types of companies to display hyper growth going forward. We believe that new retail channels (e.g., convenience stores, category killers) still have ample room for growth. The convenience store segment is likely to expand in light of the increase in single households, consumers seeking convenience in shopping, and the reinforcement of product merchandising. Category killers (e.g., electronic appliance segment) are also likely to show structural growth on the back of product diversification and consumersÊ increasing awareness of product values. Meanwhile, the SSM (super supermarket) segment could expand on the back of market consolidation. However, this growth is likely to be slow due to regulations. We recommend Hyundai Department Store (069960 KS/Buy/TP: W197,000) as one of our top picks, as the company should benefit from the potential economic recovery as well as trading- up by a subset of consumers. Our other top pick is GS Retail (007070 KS/Buy/TP: W31,000) in light of the anticipated structural growth of the convenience store and SSM segments. Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. I. 2H12 Retail sector outlook and major themes..........................................................................3 1. Private consumption growth to recover in 2H12.......................................................................3 2. Polarization of consumption to be enhanced............................................................................4 3. Structural growth of convenience stores and specialty stores .................................................5 II. Valuation ......................................................................................................................................6 Premium valuation to be maintained.............................................................................................6 Hyundai Department Store (069960 KS) ...................................................................................... 8 GS Retail (007070 KS).................................................................................................................. 11 Shinsegae (004170 KS)................................................................................................................ 14 Hi-Mart (071840 KS)...................................................................................................................... 17 Hyundai Home Shopping (057050 KS)....................................................................................... 20 Emart (139480 KS)........................................................................................................................ 23 CJ O Shopping (035760 KQ) .......................................................................................................26 GS Home Shoppping (028150 KQ) ............................................................................................. 29 2 July 6, 2012 Retail I. 2H12 Retail sector outlook and major themes 1. Private consumption growth to recover in 2H12 2H12 domestic In 2H12, we anticipate domestic consumption to pick up, driven by improving consumer consumption to pick up: sentiment and the structural growth of new retail channels, along with low base effect. 1) improving consumer Domestic consumption stagnated during 1H12, affected by factors such declining sentiment disposable income, dampened consumer sentiment (amid an economic slump), and a high 2) structural growth base effect. In particular, spending restraint (due to wide economic uncertainties), greater 3) low base effect household debt burdens (resulting from jeonse surges), and asset value drops drove down consumption and sentiment. Expect quarterly GDP Private consumption in 1H12 deteriorated due to the unstable economic situation and stalled and domestic asset value movement, but should rebound from 2H12. We expect KoreaÊs GDP growth will consumption growth to gradually accelerate from 2H12, in contrast to 1H12 where we have seen slowing growth on gradually accelerate the back of external economic uneasiness and negative wealth effects. According to KDB Daewoo SecuritiesÊ economics research team, 2012 GDP growth is forecast at 3.2% (vs. 3.6% in 2011). In particular, while 1Q12 GDP growth was 2.8% YoY, we expect it to gradually pick up towards the end of the year (3% YoY in 2Q12, 3.3% YoY in 3Q12 and 3.5% YoY in 4Q12). Domestic consumption growth should be slower than GDP growth in 2012. KDB Daewoo Securities economics research team forecasts 2012 domestic consumption growth at 2.8% YoY (vs. 2.7% YoY in 2011) and the quarterly growth trend should be in line with that of GDP growth forecasts. While 1Q12 domestic consumption growth was just 1.6% YoY, we expect domestic consumption growth to improve to 2% YoY in 2Q12, 2.2% YoY in 3Q12 and 2.8% YoY in 4Q12. CSI remained over 100 Consumer sentiment index, which reflects the consumersÊ intention to spend in the future, for six consecutive has improved since January 2012 and has remained over 100 for six consecutive months (an months index over 100 indicates that more consumers intend to increase spending in 6 months than now). Considering that the consumer sentiment index is more affected by the direction of the economic growth than the absolute growth rate, we expect consumer sentiment should improve further in the months ahead, but the pace should be gradual because of the sluggishness of asset prices. Figure 1. Korean quarterly GDP trend Figure 2. Korean Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) trend (QoQ, %) (YoY, %) (p) 6 GDP QoQ growth (L) 10 120 Consumer Sentiment Index GDP YoY growth (R) 3 6 110 0 2 100 -3 -2 90 -6 -6 80 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 13F 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 July 6, 2012 Retail 2. Polarization of consumption to be enhanced Expect recovery of For the department store segment, we expect a considerable recovery in 2H. We forecast department store department store sales growth to pick up starting in 3Q12 (after showing deterioration since segment in 2H: 3Q11). 1) improving consumer With consumers becoming increasingly price-conscious, SPA (specialty-store retailers of sentiment private label (PL) apparel) brands and low-end cosmetics are likely to stay strong in 2H 2) trading up remains (regardless of economic conditions). We attribute this to their successful efforts to provide 3) low base effect quality products at reasonable prices and effective marketing. Given their strong competitiveness, we expect these types of companies to display hyper growth going forward. Discount stores have Meanwhile, the discount store industry also holds great potential to successfully grow great potential to private labels in cooperation with sister companies (e.g., Shinsegae International), and successfully grow PLs emulate the success of many international SPA brands, such as Muji, Zara or Uniqlo. Private labels are a perfect fit for the discount store business model, which is grounded on offering premium value at fair prices. We also believe that the timing is ripe to launch more private labels in the current economic downturn. In this respect, we expect private labels to become an attractive growth driver in the mid- to long-term. At a time when SPA brands are gaining widespread success globally, we expect EmartÊs private labels to emerge as a new growth engine on the back of their good value and quality design. In reference to international SPA brands, Uniqlo, one of the leading SPA brands, entered the Korean market in 2005 via a 49/51 joint venture between Lotte Shopping and the Japanese firm, Fast Retailing. The brandÊs annual revenues have surged from W122.6bn in 2009 (up 69% YoY) to W226bn in 2010 (up 84% YoY). 2011 Revenues are estimated to have reached W380bn (up 68% YoY) based on 60 stores nationwide. Secondly, Zara advanced into the Korean market through a 20/80 joint venture between Lotte Shopping and the Spanish company, Inditex, in 2008. Revenues at the joint venture reached W79.9bn (up 132% YoY) in 2009 and W133.8bn (up
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