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GS Retail (007070 KS) Retail June 15, 2012 Company Report GS Retail (007070 KS) Retail Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Well-positioned for outgrowth amid mature retail industry Mina Kim +822-768-4163 Initiate with a Buy call and TP of W31,000 [email protected] We initiate coverage on GS Retail with a Buy rating and a target price of W31,000. Jieun Lee Our target price is derived by applying a target P/E of 15x to GS RetailÊs 2013F EPS. +822-768-3265 Our target P/E is the top-end of the trading multiple for the Korean retail sector over [email protected] the past 10-years. We believe a premium for GS Retail is justified, given: 1) GS RetailÊs core business, convenience stores, is likely to outgrow the domestic retail sector, 2) GS Retail can preserve stable operating margins thanks to its franchise business model, and 3) the companyÊs ample cash holdings can support future business opportunities, including external expansion through M&As. Since GS Buy (Initiate) RetailÊs listing on December 23, 2011 at W22,400 per share, it has outperformed Target Price (12M, W) 31,000 the KOSPI by 9.8%p. We believe the outperformance is a reflection of the Share Price (06/13/12, W) 24,500 marketÊs optimism on GS RetailÊs structural growth potential in the convenience Expected Return (%) 26.5 store segment, and expect the positive sentiment to continue in the future. EPS Growth (12F, %) 45.4 Market EPS Growth (12F, %) 19.4 Domestic convenience stores to see further growth P/E (12F, x) 13.9 Market P/E (12F, x) 9.3 The domestic convenience store industry was estimated at W10.1tr 2011, up 20.7% KOSPI 1,859.32 YoY. We forecast the domestic convenience store industry to post a CAGR of 15% Market Cap (Wbn) 1,887 over the next three years to reach W15.4tr by 2014. The primary drivers of growth Shares Outstanding (mn) 77 should come from: 1) consumers seeking convenience in shopping, 2) growing Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 98 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 2 demand for franchise businesses, and 3) reinforcement of product merchandising. Dividend Yield (12F, %) 1.2 The size of the domestic supermarket industry was W25.2tr in 2011, up 5.8% YoY, Free Float (%) 32.5 while the SSM (super supermarket) industry was W5.3tr in 2011, up 47.2% YoY. 52-Week Low (W) 19,350 We project the SSM sector will post a CAGR of 15% over the next three years to 52-Week High (W) 26,450 reach W8tr by 2014. Although the factors driving the growth of SSMÊs are similar Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.04 to convenience stores, supermarkets should be limited by government regulations. Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 3.1 Foreign Ownership (%) 6.1 GS Retail is looking for new growth opportunities Major Shareholder(s) GS et al. (67.51%) Since GS Retail has sold off its department stores and discount store business to LG International (11.97%) Lotte Shopping in 2010, the company has been focusing on convenience stores and supermarkets. Going forward, the company is expected to seek new growth Price Performance drivers. The company is known to have submitted a LOI (letter of intent) to acquire (%) 1M 6M 12M Woongjin Coway, which is slated to be finalized shortly. We believe this acquisition Absolute 0.8 - - would be positive, as GS Retail could add new growth drivers from WoongjinÊs Relative 3.8 - - current rental business and devise a new business using WoonjinÊs sales network. Key Business GS GroupÊs retail subsidiary which operates CVS, supermarkets, H&B drugstores, etc. § Earnings & Valuation Metrics Share price KOSPI FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 125 (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 115 12/10 3,280 95 2.9 442 5,743 173 96 37.4 - - - 12/11 3,982 103 2.6 94 1,215 214 -263 6.7 19.1 1.4 9.2 105 12/12F 4,710 154 3.3 136 1,767 257 229 9.2 13.9 1.3 3.0 95 12/13F 5,416 179 3.3 158 2,057 289 95 10.0 11.9 1.2 2.9 85 12/14F 6,138 208 3.4 181 2,344 324 117 10.5 10.5 1.0 2.5 12/11 4/12 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. I. Investment Summary...................................................................................................................3 Initiate coverage with a Buy and TP of W31,000..........................................................................3 Valuation: Premium to retail sector is justified ..............................................................................3 Risks: Regulatory concerns and difficulties in improving profit margins ......................................3 II. Industry outlook (CVS and supermarkets)...............................................................................4 1. Convenience store outlook........................................................................................................4 2. Japanese convenience store industry.......................................................................................5 3. Controversy over convenience store industry saturation..........................................................6 4. Supermarket industry outlook ...................................................................................................7 5. Domestic consumption outlook .................................................................................................8 III. Revenues and earnings trajectory ...........................................................................................9 1. Revenue forecasts ....................................................................................................................9 2. Profit forecasts ..........................................................................................................................9 IV. GS Retail’s business model....................................................................................................10 1. Revenue mix............................................................................................................................10 2. Revenue/profit structure of franchise model ...........................................................................11 V. Possible acquisition of Woongjin Coway ..............................................................................12 Possible acquisition of Woongjin Coway – to be finalized shortly ..............................................12 What GS Retail can get from the acquisition? ............................................................................12 VI. Valuation ...................................................................................................................................13 VII. Risks.........................................................................................................................................15 1. Concerns of regulations in convenience store industry ..........................................................15 2. Concerns over regulations in supermarket industry ...............................................................15 3. Difficulties in improving profit margins ....................................................................................15 VIII. Appendix.................................................................................................................................16 2 June 15, 2012 GS Retail I. Investment Summary Initiate coverage with a Buy call and TP of W31,000 Initiate coverage on We initiate coverage on GS Retail with a Buy rating and a target price of W31,000. Our GS Retail with a target price is derived by applying a target P/E of 15x to GS RetailÊs 2013F EPS. Our target Buy rating and TP of P/E is the top-end of the trading multiple for the Korean retail sector over the past 10-years. W31,000 Since GS RetailÊs listing on December 23, 2011 at W22,400 per share, it has outperformed the KOSPI by 9.8%p. We believe the outperformance is a reflection of the marketÊs optimism on GS RetailÊs structural growth potential in the convenience store segment, and expect the positive sentiment to continue in the future. Valuation: Premium to retail sector is justified GS Retail should trade at We believe a premium for GS Retail is justified, given: 1) GS RetailÊs core business, a premium to Korean convenience stores, is likely to outgrow the domestic retail sector, 2) GS Retail can preserve retail sector stable operating margins thanks to its franchise business model, and 3) the companyÊs ample cash holdings can support future business opportunities, including external expansion through M&As. Currently, the Korean retail sector is trading at 10x 2012F EPS, a 18.4% premium to the KOSPI. We believe the premium is justified, given: (1) domestic consumption should continue to grow, and (2) a certain retail segments (such as home shopping, online shopping and convenience stores) should continue to outgrow GDP growth. Risks: Regulatory concerns and difficulties in improving profit margins Regulatory risks in The governmentÊs regulation of convenience stores is relatively lighter than other retail convenience stores segments. We attribute this to the operating structure of convenience stores: most of the should remain relatively stores are run on a franchise model and owned by franchisees, not franchisers. In addition, low the government appears to look positively on the fact that franchisers provide a certain level of subsidies to franchisees. Meanwhile,
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