2008, Vol 28, No 1

Feature Articles 8. Skepticism in Science 40. Samson the Role Model Sir Guy Green Peter Hogan

14. Communicating with Murder Victims 42. Review: The Real Deal on Dealy Karen Stollznow Jerry Goodenough

18. Electricity from Uranium 45. Review: What’s Happening to Our ABC? Martin Caon Peter Williams

22. Vitalism 46. Review: Of Goats and Quacks Laurie Eddie Rob Hardy

28. Evidence Based Psychotherapy 48. Where There’s Tragedy, There’s Trade Gary Bakker Peter Booth

33. Taking on the TGA 50. Review: Faith? It Doesn’t Add Up Loretta Marron Rob Hardy

36. The Placebo Effect 55. Sharia and Human Rights in Nigeria David Brookman Leo Igwe

Regular Items Forum 4. Editorial — Onward and Upward 52. Circumcision Barry Williams 6. Around the Traps Bunyip News 69. Letters 13. WA Skeptics Request 65. Notices 57. Weird’s the Word

Cover art by Richard Saunders 65. Convention Call for Papers Editorial

ISSN 0726-9897 Editor Barry Williams Associate Editor Onward and Karen Stollznow Contributing Editors Tim Mendham Steve Roberts

Technology Consultants Richard Saunders Upward Eran Segev Chief Investigator Ian Bryce n early 1981 the first issue of Skeptic and who are prepared to All correspondence to: the Skeptic appeared as a four- give us the benefit of their exper- Australian Skeptics Inc I PO Box 268 page tabloid, containing mostly tise in so many disparate fields. Roseville NSW 2069 reprints of overseas stories and Among them we number several Australia with around 200 subscribers. contributors and reviewers from (ABN 90 613 095 379 ) Twenty eight years on, and the overseas, most notably our Contact Details Skeptic continues to inform and regular Nigerian correspondent, Tel: (02) 9417 2071 entertain its readers — or so the Leo Igwe, who lives in a country Fax: (02) 9417 7930 e-mails: [email protected] kind words so where open [email protected] many of you Skepticism penned on your carries far more Web Pages Australian Skeptics renewal notices perils that we www.skeptics.com.au would indicate. are ever likely No Answers in Genesis™ And your num- to encounter in http://home.austarnet.com.au/stear/default.htm bers have in- Australia. the Skeptic is a journal of fact and opinion, published creased more than Our reader- four times per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. Views tenfold since our ship encom- and opinions expressed in articles and letters in the Skeptic are those of the authors, and are not necessar- modest begin- passes a wide ily those of Australian Skeptics Inc. Articles may be re- nings. range of profes- printed with permission and with due acknowledgement There have sions and to the Skeptic. been many occupations, Editorial consultants: changes over that among the most Dr Stephen Basser (medicine) time, certainly in numerous being Dr Trevor Case (psychology) Dr Richard Gordon (medicine) the appearance of teachers and Dr Pete Griffith (biochemistry/microbiology) Dr William Grey (philosophy) the magazine, but medical (and Prof Colin Groves (anthropology) by far t he most important associated) practitioners, as one Mr Martin Hadley (law) Dr Colin Keay (astronomy) changes have been in the quality would expect, given that these Dr Andrew Parle (physics) Prof Ian Plimer (geology) of the articles. We no longer rely professions are often in the front Dr Stephen Moston (psychology) Dr Alex Ritchie (palaeontology) on reprints of previously pub- line of the dispute between Dr Steve Roberts (chemistry) lished works, although we still reason and irrationality. Perhaps Mr Roland Seidel (mathematics) Dr Karen Stollznow (linguistics) occasionally use them when the not surprisingly, scientists, Branch correspondents: piece is of high quality and the academics and engineers are well subject warrants it. represented, but so too are law- ACT: Mr Michael O’Rourke Gold Coast: Mr John Stear Most encouraging is the yers, accountants, students, Hunter: Dr Colin Keay number of people, from all walks business people, public servants, Qld: Mr Bob Bruce SA: Mr Allan Lang of life, who are pleased to see farmers and artists — a wide Tas: Mr Fred Thornett Vic: Mr Ken Greatorex their work published in the cross section indeed. WA: Dr Geoffrey Dean

Page 4 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 We are also delighted to Topics under consideration will Skeptics Around Australia number more than 50 libraries include: (including nine in the USA, two ways of determining the most impor- in New Zealand and one in tant issues that confront us; New South Wales Canada) among our longtime Australian Skeptics Inc developing strategies for promoting PO Box 268, Roseville NSW 2069 subscribers, thus assisting to our ideas using media and market- Tel: (02) 9417 2071 Fax: (02) 9417 7930 spread our message to a wider ing techniques, especially among [email protected] audience. under-represented groups such as Over many years, through the young and women; Hunter Skeptics dedicated hard work by a lot of PO Box 166 , Waratah NSW 2298 best methods of lobbying authorities Tel: (02) 4957 8666, Fax: (02) 4952 6442 people, a readiness to comment and MPs to achieve change,: and in the media and a willingness to Victoria ways of improving co-operation and debate contentious issues, the Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc Skeptics have built up an out- communication within the broad GPO Box 5166AA, Melbourne VIC 3001 standing network of expertise Skeptics family. Tel: 1 800 666 996 and enthusiasm. This gather- [email protected] This encom- ing, the first of Borderline Skeptics passes our sub- its kind with PO Box 17 , Mitta Mitta VIC 3701 scribers and a such a broad Tel:(02)60723632 nation-wide reach, will be [email protected] group of mutu- sponsored by the Australian Queensland ally supporting Queensland Skeptics Assn Inc autonomous Skeptics Science PO Box 6454 , Fairfield Gardens QLD 4103 Skeptics bodies. and Education Tel (07) 3255 0499 Crucial to this Foundation. The [email protected] network is the Foundation, an independent Gold Coast Skeptics Skeptic , a jour- PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall QLD 9726 nal which, from body, is the Tel: (07) 5593 1882 Fax: (07) 5593 2776 humble begin- beneficiary of a [email protected] nings, now ranks number of be- among the very quests. Its ACT best of its kind in purpose is to Canberra Skeptics PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 the world. Add to fund the Skep- (02) 6121 4483 this our various web sites, tics groups in their work, and to [email protected] vodcasts, blogs, and other elec- support other projects dedicated tronic media we use to propa- to our primary concerns. We are South Australia gate the message of skepticism very grateful to them for their Skeptics SA generous support. 52B Miller St Unley SA 5061 and critical thinking to the world Tel: (08) 8272 5881 and our influence is far from [email protected] negligible. But we need to do Different way of receiving the Skeptic more, and that is what we are While we are looking at modern Western Australia planning to do. communications, did you know WA Skeptics that you can now subscribe to the PO Box 431, Scarborough WA 6922 The future Tel: (08) 9448 8458 Skeptic via email? If you would [email protected] In order to see where we are prefer the electronic version (as a going and to improve our impact PDF) let us know and we will Tasmania among the public, in early April send you each new issue, hot Australian Skeptics in Tasmania some 45 delegates from the from the presses and straight to PO Box 582, North Hobart TAS 7002. your computer. Tel: (03) 6234 4731 Skeptics network across the [email protected] country will be meeting in Wagga Wagga, NSW, to engage in a Darwin Skeptics Contact weekend of mutual brain-picking Tel: 08 89274533 and good fellowship. Barry Williams [email protected]

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 5 News and Views Around the Traps

Unreal reality Tranquillity Base, not one of these Boeing 747s. When you are hurtling revelations was a revelation. Most of along in a thin-walled aluminium them, along with other sensational- tube at a substantial proportion of hat is it with ‘documentaries’ ist claims made in the show, have the speed of sound, in an atmos- Wthese days? Recently we saw been known for well over 30 years. phere as thin as boarding-house The Real Apollo 11 Story, an English Of course the Apollo Programme soup, it is comforting to think that production that promised to ‘reveal’ was dangerous — very dangerous — the folk servicing the tube have hitherto unknown secrets of the but the fact remains that two earlier passed all the necessary exams. But flight. missions had circumnavigated the you would be less than sanguine if Like that it was really dangerous!! Moon and six other missions fol- you thought that they might be no (Sitting on top of a couple of thousand lowed Apollo 11, without killing any more than talented amateurs. tons of highly volatile fuel? Who’d have of the astronauts. Apollo 13 was as We were properly outraged at thought it?) close to a disaster as it was possible that case, but how many of us barely That the lander was very low on fuel to get, and yet those three crewmen bat an eyelid when consulting when it landed!!! returned safely home. ‘alternative health’ practitioners? The only fatalities involving Let’s face it, common old homo (Not quite as low as the show intimated. Apollo missions were the three sapiens is a far more complex The lander was within 30 seconds of astronauts who burned to death in a machine than anything Boeing ever the “Bingo” point, the point at which grounded command module, two constructed, yet too many of us they had to land within 20 seconds or years before the first circumlunar blithely consign our maintenance abort, not the point at which the fuel flight of Apollo 8. and servicing to someone whose ran out. There was about 45 seconds of It’s bad enough that cranks get so entire knowledge of our structure fuel left, not 15.) much publicity for their vacuous and mechanics might well have been That the lander’s computer failed a claims about the whole thing being a gleaned during a three-day course number of times during the descent!!!! hoax, but when documentaries (we saw one such advertised in purporting to tell the ‘real’ story opt Nova, a New Age mag, last week). (When the professional pilots aboard for such silly sensationalism, one took manual control and the profes- has to wonder if there are any sional engineers at Houston worked sensible people left. around the problems.) Literary spooks That President Nixon had another speech written in case the landing had Over there in South Australia, they failed!!!!! Sticking to his last certainly do things differently. (Nixon might not have been everyone’s We hear that the City of Tea Tree cup of tea, but he wasn’t stupid. Of Skeptics, along with everyone else, Gully (a northern suburb of Ad- course he would have had a speech pre- were very probably horrified at the elaide) had a haunted library, so pared in case of disaster.) revelations in a recent court case of what did the city fathers do? They a man who, without any of the employed a spiritual adviser, natu- The point being that, almost 39 necessary qualifications, had worked rally, to rid the building of ghosties, years after the Eagle landed at on the maintenance of Qantas ghoulies, sinister spirits and things

Page 6 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 that go bump in the Without comment importance of what night. Not an exorcist, he was doing, and of course, for that of his social status. would be pandering to He variously silly superstition. No claimed to be a self-respecting local Hungarian noble- government bureau- man, the nephew of crat would want to be a famous Austrian seen condoning that conductor (orches- sort of thing. tra, not bus) and According to the indulged in various local fish-wrapper, the other fantasies. advisor carried out Even his claim ‘certain procedures’ to that Hitler took address the concerns of advice from as- some staff who ‘felt uncomfortable’ Saying ‘the ball sped to the trologers is now believed to be pure at ‘less explainable things’ when the boundary like a tracer bullet’ means fabrication. For all his manifold building was ‘largely unoccupied’. that the ball glowed, not that it went strange beliefs, the only reference Now that’s a story that should fast. ‘Tracer balls’ might be quite anyone can find to the Fuhrer’s halt the presses around the civilised useful for day-night matches on opinions of astrology shows that he world. grounds where there is no lighting, thought it was rubbish. but not for much else.

Deadly Godly dispute An apology Starzis of the Nazis Much more tragic was the case in Time for a mea culpa from the Tumut, NSW, where two British It has long been a claim of the minions of the Skeptic Subscription fruit-picking back-packers got into a astrological fraternity that one of Department. heated dispute over whether evolu- their number, Louis de Wohl, was of Recently, a number of you (those tion or creationism was the more great assistance to the British for whom we don’t have a current accurate explanation of the state of military authorities during WWII. email address) received a printed the world. The story went that de Wohl, a Reminder Notice that your subscrip- The upshot was that Rudi Boa, a refugee from Occupied Europe and tion had not been renewed. This Scottish biomedical scientist who an astrologer, informed British Notice did not contain a return favoured evolution, was stabbed to military intelligence that Hitler address (though the envelope death by Englishman, Alexander consulted astrologers. He claimed containing it did) and many of you York, the creationist. York was later that, as an astrologer, he could cast took the opportunity to remind us of sentenced to five years jail for horoscopes for Hitler and other top this oversight. manslaughter. Nazis, and could thereby alert the Much as we would like to claim it military intelligence services to the as a cunning piece of reverse psy- sort of advice the Nazi hierarchy chology, designed to cause subscrib- was getting. ers to give deep thought to the Great shot, Sir Now, that claim has been shown Notice, the truth is that it was to be no less of a fabrication than indeed an oversight, and for this we Note to all cricket commentators. any other pronouncements from apologise. Tracer bullets are designed to such sources. While he was em- However, this (albeit inadvertent) burn a small amount of a ployed by the authorities (the SOE) reverse psychology seemed to work a pyrotechnic substance so their for a time, recently declassified and treat. The response level for this trajectory becomes visible, thus released documents in the National notice was far higher and much allowing the gunner to correct his Archives, show that MI5 officers quicker than that attracted by aim. were less than impressed by de previous ones. They travel in the same trajectory Wohl’s claims, one describing him as Maybe the next time we should and at the same speed as the ordi- “a charlatan and impostor”, and send out a cryptic notice simply nary ammunition among which they other opinions were similarly stating “Cough Up!” (or perhaps are mixed. If they didn’t, they would uncomplimentary. not). not be of much use for tracing the Moreover, he was prone to embar- trajectory. rassing his handlers by inflating the Bunyip

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 7 Convention Feature Skepticism in Science

A timely salutary warning about This is the text of Sir Guy Green’s recant his claim that the Earth is mixing dogma and science Keynote Address to the Australian not the centre of the world but Skeptics National Convention, moves around the Sun — an injunc- held in Hobart on the weekend tion the church imposed, not because November 17-18, 2007 it had scientific evidence to the contrary, but simply because Gali- Introduction leo’s assertion was in conflict with n the whole of human history the doctrines of the church. Ithere has never been a phenom- In same way, in the 19th Century, enon comparable to the advances in the violent opposition to Darwin’s science and technology which theory of the origin of species by started at the beginning of the natural selection was not based scientific revolution in the 17th upon scientific argument, but was Century and are continuing today at derived from religious doctrine. And an accelerating rate. But impressive that conflict between science and as these developments have been, religion is still with us today. In the we cannot be complacent about United States especially, there is them. In fact as a society we are not continuing debate about attempts by as intellectually sophisticated or schools to give the teaching of mature as we would like to think we creationism the same status as the are. Even in this 21st Century we are teaching of evolution. subject to influences which can I make no comment about the impair or corrupt the doing or place of religion in the lives of application of science. And that is human beings or upon the right of the case especially in the field of churches, schools or parents to environmental science. promote or pass on religious beliefs. I shall be discussing three kinds The point I am making is that of such influences. First, the corrup- religious beliefs and scientific tion of science by dogma or ideology; reasoning occupy quite distinct secondly, misconceptions about the domains which should not be con- nature and methodology of science; fused with each other and that when thirdly, a version of the precaution- they are confused, science is cor- ary principle which is a product of a rupted. combination of both those vices. It is not only religious dogma which threatens science. The doing Dogma and Ideology in Science of science is corrupted when it is Sir Guy Green is a former Chief Justice and Dogma is one of the oldest and most influenced by any ideology or belief Governor of Tasmania and has acted as insidious threats to the advance- system which is based upon values Administrator of the Commonwealth in the ment of science. Famous examples as opposed to reasoning or evidence. absence of the Governor General. include the church forcing Galileo to For example, it was not only reli-

Page 8 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 gious but social doctrine which ences. was released, that the idea was “to militated against acceptance of One of Professor Kellow’s many get a message across, and to make Darwin’s theory. As the wife of the telling examples is the saga of the people aware of the impending Canon of Worcester Cathedral cried listing by the International Union crisis.” The authors of Useless out upon being informed that the for the Conservation of Nature and Arithmetic comment: theory implied the descent of man Natural Resources of a sort of In other words the model outcome had from ape-like creatures: mountain goat named pseudonovibos been determined before the model was Descended from the apes! My dear, we spiralis as an endangered species. In run. Finding the truth according to a hope it is not true. But if it is, let us fact, as Kellow comments, the preconceived opinion or philosophy is pray that it may not become generally IUCN’s assessment of the risk of a common flaw in applied mathemati- known!” extinction of the species “surprised cal modelling. And it is very similar to While that story may be apocry- many scholars because there is finding truth that matches one’s reli- phal, it does reflect another form of every indication that pseudonovibos gious faith. opposition to Darwin’s theory, which spiralis was more than extinct — The authors cite numerous other was based on the dogma of man that it had not just ceased to exist, examples to support their conclu- being a unique and superior species. but that it never had existed”. It is sions that many modelling studies A more recent example of the in short a mythical animal. But are politicized, that their authors malign influence of ideology upon despite that it remains on the list are “not unlike religious fanatics” science occurred in the 1940s, when because its existence, Professor and that many of those engaged in scientists in the Soviet Union were Kellow suggests, serves other mathematical modelling are very forced to accept Trofim Denisovich agendas, such as supporting argu- defensive about their work, with the Lysenko’s fallacious theories about ments for the preservation of habi- result that it is not subject to: the inheritance of acquired charac- tats. Incidentally, asserting the reality of this mythical creature also the usual broad based vigorous debate teristics — not because they satis- criticism and constant attempts at fal- fied the criteria of scientific serves the interests of the Cambo- dian traders who sell fake sification that characterize good sci- acceptability, but because they ence. supported the particular form of pseudonovbos horns to gullible Marxism favoured by Josef Stalin. collectors and locals who believe it In the work I have already cited That was a particularly serious protects them against the effects of Professor Kellow presents a fully episode, it resulting in the persecu- snakebite. supported case for concluding that: tion of geneticists who disagreed and Even when we enter the appar- The extensive reliance [in climate sci- the discrediting of Soviet biology and ently value free domain of math- ence] upon models and the significant agricultural science for a generation. ematics we find that science is manipulation of their source data cre- subject to ideological influences. ates the danger of virtuous corruption, Modern examples In a recently published work just as the values of those who wish to Those examples are not isolated rather challengingly entitled Useless push policy prescriptions onto policy- curiosities in the history of ideas. Arithmetic: Why Environmental makers and the public can (even if in- The influence of ideology upon Scientists Can’t Predict the Future, advertently) contaminate the conduct science is still very much alive today. the authors cite many examples of their analysis. In a major work which has just where quantitative mathematical been published, Science and Public modelling has been corrupted by A serious case ideology. They include the Club of Policy: the Virtuous Corruption of A serious example of the misuse of Rome’s 1972 publication Limits to Virtual Environmental Science, models in order to produce a politi- Growth, which used modelling to Professor Aynsley Kellow convinc- cally correct result occurred in 1992 support their prediction that, by the ingly demonstrates the existence of when the United States Environ- year 2000, societies around the what he calls “the virtuous corrup- ment Protection Agency used a world would be subject to cata- tion” of environmental science, by model to support its claims that strophic breakdown as a result of which he means the corruption of environmental or “second hand” the total exhaustion of natural science in order to serve what is seen tobacco smoke was a class A carcino- resources and massive environmen- as a good cause. As he observes: gen, causing several thousand tal destruction. deaths a year in the United States. Lysenkoism might appear to be a rather That is more than an example of In subsequent judicial proceedings extreme example of social and political the failure of a grossly defective the EPA study was declared to be factors influencing the conduct of sci- model — although it certainly was void, on the grounds that the meth- ence but, there is ample evidence that that — it is an example of the odology had been adjusted and data much of the science relating to environ- corruption of science, because of the had been selectively used or re- mental problems is at least at risk of telling comment made by a Club of jected, so as to ensure that the being contaminated by similar influ- Rome official shortly after the report

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 9 Skepticism in Science model supported the conclusion the the sub-editor of an English tabloid scientific issues, consider the reac- Agency was promoting, and which it newspaper of products derived from tion to the work The Skeptical had reached before the study was genetically modified crops as Environmentalist, written by a undertaken. “Frankenstein Food”; he probably Danish scholar Bjørn Lomborg. That decision was later set aside felt quite proud of himself — after Published for the first time in on appeal, but only on the technical all, the headline was eye-catching, English in 2001, the work deals with issue of the judge’s jurisdiction to and alliterative to boot. But one environmental concerns about the review the EPA report: his findings could hardly imagine a journalistic depletion of natural resources, the were not impugned; but to this day approach better calculated to arouse effects of human population growth, the claims made by the EPA are fear and prejudice, and inhibit clear the loss of biodiversity and the cited to support claims about the thinking about genetic modification. pollution of water and the atmos- effects of second hand smoke. phere. In a 500 page analysis I am not making any com- of the evidence, Lomborg ment about the effects of second argues that these fears are hand smoke, but studies like either unfounded or exagger- that seriously impair proper The doing of science ated. consideration of the issue. I do not express any Indeed, if, as other evidence opinion as to whether or not appears to indicate, environ- is corrupted when it Lomborg’s thesis is valid. But mental tobacco smoke does pose what I do wish to comment on a health risk, flawed studies is the way in which his thesis such as the EPA study are is influenced by has been debated. The re- seriously counterproductive to sponse to The Skeptical efforts to combat it. Environmentalist has been any ideology or very disturbing. Much of it Bizarre post modern ideas consists of attacks on Another way in which science is Lomborg personally. But corrupted by ideology is to be belief system Lomborg does not rely upon found in the bizarre application, his qualifications or personal by post modern theorists, of opinions to sustain his case — scientific conclusions to quite which is based upon his work stands or falls on the inappropriate disciplines. evidence, and the arguments Examples include the applica- he advances; it follows that tion by post modernists of values, as opposed the personal attacks on him mathematical logic to political are gratuitous, irrelevant and theory, Einstein’s special and of course quite unscientific. general theories of relativity to to reasoning But even when it is the book, sociological questions, non rather than the man, which is Euclidian geometry to a special being addressed, the way in space in which wars are said to or evidence which the issues he raises be conducted, and the applica- have been discussed has been tion of chaos theory to literary just as unedifying and un- analysis. It is hard to believe helpful. that anyone can advance this sort of For millions of people, every time A review of the book was pub- thing with a straight face, but they the issue of genetic modification of lished in the journal Nature. In that are deadly serious about it, and post crops is raised, Frankenstein Food review which was later fairly charac- modern thinking continues to be will pop into their minds. Expres- terised by correspondents to the influential. sions and language like that — and journal as “peevish” and “part of a The advancement and application there are many other examples — rush to rubbish Lomborg’s book”, the of science are also adversely affected might be acceptable in social debate, authors expressed the conclusion when ideology distorts the way in or when you are trying to convey that Lomborg’s survey “reads like a which scientific issues are discussed feelings or persuade people of compilation of form papers from one and dealt with by the public and by something, but they have no place in of those classes from hell where one decision makers. serious science based discussions. has to fail all the students”. It is a Ideological positions are embed- troubling indication of the depths to ded in the emotional and value The Skeptical Environmentalist which debate about environmental laden language used in environmen- As another illustration of the ideo- issues has descended, when it is tal debate. Take the description by logical distortion of debate about thought appropriate to include

Page 10 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 puerile material like that in what demanding clear cut unequivocal There is no doubt that modelling purports to be a serious review of a answers to questions about every- is a very useful tool. lt would be hard serious book, in one of the most thing from climate change, dietary to find any field today which does prestigious scientific journals in the requirements or genetically engi- not rely upon some form of model- world. neered crops, to the efficacy of a new ling. Models can generate hypoth- Similarly, in the case of Lomborg’s drug. But what they fail to appreci- eses which might not be conceived if book, the Scientific American de- ate is that certainty in science is a we were to rely solely on human cided to depart from its usual myth, and that all scientific state- reasoning and imagination; they can practice of publishing one-page book ments are provisional only, being no facilitate research and design; and reviews, written with detachment by more than the best fit for the data as they can enable analyses of data to recognised experts in the field, and they are currently known, so that it be undertaken that would otherwise instead published a special eleven is simply not possible to give un- be virtually impossible. Indeed, in page section on the book, written by qualified answers to questions of the general sense of it being a academics known to be associated that kind. technique which involves the repre- with environmental advocacy. Their An example is provided by the sentation or mapping and manipula- articles were not balanced reviews popular response to the publication tion of a manageable subdivision of but polemical attacks which were of the Fourth Assessment Report by the physical world, a great deal of accurately summarised by The the Intergovernmental Panel on science can be seen in essence as a Economist as “strong on contempt Climate Change. The Report makes form of modelling. and sneering, but weak on sub- numerous references to uncertain- But like science generally there is stance”. ties in the data and incomplete a widespread failure to understand Not all Lomborg’s critics used understanding of the phenomena the limitations of mathematical verbal abuse. In September 2001 at which are the subject of the report. modelling. the launch of Lomborg’s book in an It very properly expresses reserva- A basic but common error is to Oxford bookshop Mark Lynas, a tions about the extent to which the forget that a model is not real. That widely published writer on climate projections in the report can be used sounds an obvious thing to say, but change, decided to present his to predict climate change and future it needs to be said because the thoughtful, scholarly conclusions sea level rise, but those uncertain- output of models is routinely pre- about the book by smashing a pie in ties and qualifications have been sented in such a way as to suggest Lomborg’s face. barely mentioned in the media or that the thing represented by the That the personal attacks on public debate about the report. model is the thing itself. Thus, one Lomborg, and the partial and Unfortunately, it is not only non- frequently reads in the popular intemperate reviews of his book, scientists who perpetuate the myth media, and even in the scientific represent a serious departure from of certainty in science. Some scien- literature, statements to the effect the norms of scientific debate and tists themselves, through the confi- that a model or simulation “proves” academic behavior is bad enough in dence with which and the or “shows” that something in the itself, but by perverting proper unqualified terms in which they physical world is the case. But such debate about the issues which he express their opinions, or report the assertions are self-evidently un- raises, the most serious casualty is results of their research, bear just as sound. By definition, all models are science itself. much responsibility for perpetuating incomplete; the validity of the this misconception of science. That output of a model is dependent Misconceptions about the nature and has been exacerbated by the readi- entirely upon the soundness of the methodology of science ness of some scientists to announce data, and the validity of the assump- I turn to the second trend which is research findings to the popular tions upon which it is based. Strictly subverting the doing and application media before they have been pub- speaking, the only statements which of science: a failure to understand lished in academic journals, or been a model can make are statements the essential nature and limitations critically examined by other scien- about itself. A model can be a useful of science and its methodology. tists. tool, but only when it is used in The phenomenal growth of conjunction with empirically based scientific knowledge has given rise Capacity of models science. to an exaggerated belief in the Another example of a failure to At the root of the problem is a capacity of science to provide us with understand the nature and the failure to understand that math- complete and conclusive answers to limits of science is an exaggerated ematical modelling is a qualitatively questions about almost every aspect belief in the capacity of mathemati- different activity from the methodol- of our society. Increasingly the cal models — usually computer ogy of observation, measurement, media, consumers, decision makers generated — to provide us with analysis, experiment, and the and the general community are knowledge of the world. making of falsifiable predictions

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 11 Skepticism in Science about the real world, which comprise The precautionary principle is being used. Unfortunately in discus- the doing of science. frequently referred to in discussions sions about environmental issues In the work to which I have about environmental issues, and in you will routinely hear the expres- already referred, Useless Arithmetic, regulatory regimes governing sion precautionary principle being the authors present a convincing environmentally sensitive activities. used without it being defined, with case showing how inadequate But a threshold problem about the result that the discussions are mathematical modelling has proved applying the principle is that it is confusing and unproductive. to be in dealing with complex sys- routinely referred to as if it had a There is a more serious problem tems. The problems, they argue, do single universally accepted meaning. with the application of the precau- not just reflect defects in the par- But it does not. When it first gained tionary principle. The form of the ticular models they cite, but are currency the principle was generally principle most commonly advanced endemic to the modelling of any understood to mean that where by environmentalists is that no complex environmental or human proposed activity might cause activity should be undertaken unless process. They support their case by irreversible environmental harm, a it can be demonstrated that that an analysis of the activity will not inadequacies of some cause environmen- two dozen quantita- tal harm. At first tive modelling sight that appears studies ranging from to be a reasonably shore line erosion defensible proposi- rates to global sea tion, but when it is level change. analysed it, in fact, It is not only in turns out that it is respect of complex impossible to systems that over comply with. Until reliance is placed we know everything upon modelling. A about everything in dramatic example the universe it is a was provided by the logical impossibility design of the Millen- to prove a negative nium pedestrian of that kind. bridge across the That is brought Thames. This mag- home to us when we nificent structure had Millennium Bridge, London. reflect upon complex to be closed two days Photo courtesy www.freefoto.com/download/31-01-12 or chaotic systems after it had been which are sensi- opened because the synchronised lack of full scientific certainty is not tively dependent upon initial condi- responses of pedestrians to random a sufficient reason for not taking tions, and in which even the most movements in the bridge set up measures to guard against that limited action is capable of generat- dangerous oscillations. The failure harm. But over the years the princi- ing large and unpredictable effects. to predict this phenomenon was a ple has been given a number of In other words, we can never prove direct result of the designers relying different formulations in interna- conclusively that a particular action upon predictions made by computer tional agreements and in legislation will not have an adverse conse- models of the behaviour of pedestri- and policy statements. Some formu- quence somewhere in the world at ans on the bridge, instead of their lations make the principle applicable some time in the future. It follows making empirical investigations of where harm is possible while others that that form of the precautionary the behavior of real human beings make it applicable where harm is principle precludes us from ever on a real bridge. probable — two very different tests. doing anything at all again. Other formulations, including the In case it is thought that I am The precautionary principle well known Rio Declaration, intro- being extravagant in my characteri- The third example of influences duce the notion of cost effectiveness sation of where the application of which impair the doing or applica- into the application of the principle. that form of the precautionary tion of environmental science is the The fact that the principle is principle leads us, let me cite a lack of intellectual discipline coupled given different formulations doesn’t concrete example. with ideology, which is reflected in invalidate it, but it does mean that I return to my reference to the the formulation and application of to be meaningful, the principle has inclusion by the IUCN of the mythi- the precautionary principle. to be defined in the terms of the cal horned mountain goat particular context in which it is pseudonovibos spiralis as an endan-

Page 12 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 gered species. By 2003 the IUCN consequences. But if the principle is The resolution of social issues and had reached the point where it could to be invoked it must be defined and the development of Government no longer ignore the expressions of applied in an intellectually disci- policy are today more dependent doubt that were increasingly being plined way in the terms of the upon science than has ever been the voiced about the reality of this particular domain in respect of case before. Predicting and respond- creature. But that did not result in it which it is being invoked. ing to climate change, resolving removing it from the list; instead the issues relating to genetic engineer- IUCN invoked “the precautionary Conclusion ing, planning the management of principle” which they concluded I am not suggesting that the doing water, energy and natural resources, “requires us to assume that the or understanding of science is and determining policies in areas species did exist, and may still universally flawed. In relation to the ranging from ageing and health care exist”. So there you have it: this great bulk of science that is not the to defence or telecommunications, most serviceable principle can be case. But the examples I have given are just a few examples of fields used to deem the existence of any are sufficient to show that we cannot where the input of science is an species you choose, mythical or be complacent either. essential component of the decision otherwise, which you cannot conclu- It is intrinsically harmful when making process. sively prove does not exist. any field of intellectual endeavour is That is why it is important that we In these comments I am not misapplied, or is distorted by dogma confront the sort of issues to which I arguing against the concept of some or ideology, or its scope or methodol- have referred and that is why the kind of precautionary principle: of ogy are not properly understood, but philosophical approach of the Aus- course we should be circumspect it is especially harmful in the case of tralian Skeptics has never been more about taking action which might science. important than it is today. have irreversible environmental Calling all Kids in Years 8-12

Skeptics in Western Australia want to know what you think of their website: www.undeceivingourselves.com.

It has lots of short easy-to-read articles showingskeptics undeceiving themselves about horoscopes, psychics, water divining, UFOs, weeping statues, all the usual fun stuff. When told about our website, teachers and schools rushed to check it out, but not skeptics like your mum and dad. The graph says it all. So if you are in school years 8-12, WA Skeptics want to hear from you.

What do you like or dislike about our Show your mum and dad what website? How can we make ours more interest- real skeptics can do and email an How would you improve it? ing? avalanche of comments to WA What skeptic websites are more inter- Skeptics at [email protected] Do your teachers know about it? before 30 April 2008. esting than ours? Which are your favourite articles? The most constructive comments Should we give it away and put skeptic will receive a young person’s Whatcool targets have we missed? stuff on YouTube instead? skepticbook and fame forever.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 13 Cover Story How to Communicate with Murder Victims

Learning to be a psychic e previously met Nancy Nancy Talks to Deceased Celebrities, detective WBradley as the raucous psy- Bringing your Valentine to You, and chic spruiker (the Skeptic, 27/2). I Monsters Among Us — Real Creatures saw a more relaxed and subdued that still Walk the Earth. Nancy when I attended a Psychic The class I attended was a lesson Development Course at her home in on how to become a psychic detective: Placerville, California. None of her Communicating with Murder Victims wit was gone, though, as “The — Help Soothe and Find their Bodies. Celebrities’ Psychic” shared psychic anecdotes and droll quips about her Apparently, four million people legion of ex-husbands. receive Nancy’s email newsletter, Quite like John Edward, Nancy but only a fraction attended this began her career as a dancer. Grow- class. I was in a room full of psy- ing up in New York, she moved to Las chics, from novices to professionals, Vegas to dance, but soon realised that all in various stages of their psychic her true calling was to become a growth. But these courses are for professional psychic. This career everyone. Like a mantra, Nancy change paid off, and she now claims assured us that everyone has psy- to be “the top psychic, healer and chic abilities! empowerment coach in the world.” As a fundamental question, Apparently, Nancy has a crew of Nancy asked, “How many of you loyal clients and is booked three think you’re already up for commu- months in advance. Here’s what nicating with those who’ve been Jane G. says about Nancy: murdered?” In a room of some 25 Chuck had a reading with the Dalai psychics, a mere five raised their Lama who went to his hotel room. After hands. “Yes, it is a tough job”, Nancy the reading he took what he had heard murmured sagely, “Not everyone with a grain of salt. He said, ‘I take more wants to do this painful work.” But credence in what Nancy tells me.’ we were all there to learn, and all could learn to find missing murder Every Friday, Nancy holds these victims, soothe their distress and classes from the lounge room of her help their ‘transition’ to the afterlife. modest home, the “Truth Center… Before the lecture began, Nancy where only truth in psychic work is implored us to be patient in our accepted.” The classes treat a whole acquisition of the necessary skills. range of practical psychic topics, We need to, “trust the self, to trust Karen Stollznow, the Assistant Editor of the including astral travel, automatic our instincts and learn the work in Skeptic and NSW committee member, is writing, ghost busting, séances, and baby steps. This is a long-term goal presently lecturing in linguistics in the USA. finding missing persons; with titles and we need to develop the tools for www.bad-language.com that titillate: this gift”.

Page 14 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 But “until you’re an expert, don’t etc…Think about it…(But channelling establish whether the individual is bother the police.” Learners should murder victims is plausible?) indeed deceased, or merely missing. experiment first by monitoring Putting her hand to her chest, current cases. Then, test your ability Working for The Man Nancy explained that we know if the person is dead or alive, “by the way to predict clues and the location of Nancy claims to have performed your heart feels.” Is there a heart- the subject. Watch and learn from psychic detective work for NASA, beat or not? If there is a heartbeat afar, and chart your own personal the FBI, CIA and recently with the there is some urgency to the task as success. Consistency is vital. One Coastguard (regarding the Olivia “most murders occur within five must be 100% accurate over the Newton-John case), but only if she is hours of the kidnapping.” The course of eight cases before one has invited on the team. Sometimes the victim’s life is in jeopardy, they could achieved ‘expert status.’ You must be deceased won’t wait and instead be “held for ransom, or the victim of able to prove to your psychic teacher, come to her, such as the fellow who and to yourself, that you are capable a sexual crime or torture.” How do of this work before you ever we detect the heartbeat (or lack approach the authorities to offer thereof) of the subject? Acquire a your services. “DO NOT force it photo of the person. Look into to happen! Put yourself in the their eyes. Connect with their shoes of the family — don’t offer heartbeat. You will feel a “pull- false hope and faulty leads.” ing energy” and your heart will Apparently, the police are start to race. Then, “get rid of bombarded with bogus leads from your heartbeat.” “phony” psychics. The govern- ment estimates that for every one Be still, my beating heart true psychic there are 50,000 This is achieved by calming your shonky psychics. The Truth heartbeat, and then simply Center “legitimizes psychic aligning your chakras. Nancy work”, because, “Currently, demonstrated this act, curling anyone can put out a shingle and her hands into fists, placing one call themselves a psychic.” fist on her head and then But surely there can’t be any raising it in a straight line, shonky psychics, when, by before repeating the act with the Nancy’s own admission, we are other hand. It looked as though all psychic? As Nancy’s brochure Nancy Bradley she was pulling an invisible contradicts: rope out of her head. After aligning your head chakra, Does your PSYCHIC insist they were was killed in a car accident outside stretch your arms above your head BORN PSYCHIC? Real Psychics know Nancy’s home, and proceeded to and in a graceful motion of vertical that EVERYONE is born Psychic. walk straight into her office! How- ever, Nancy refuses to participate in breaststroke, sweep your arms When selecting your psychic, how downwards into a crucifixion-like can you be sure you have chosen a cases where another psychic has previously worked. They have left pose. With your palms splayed legitimate one? outwards, you have aligned your Nancy has produced a brochure their psychic scent behind, and this “muddies the waters, leading to dead heart chakra. “Can you feel that? No that provides a few warning signs to heartbeat!” Nancy enthused, as identify the charlatans: ends.” Furthermore, Nancy won’t provide her psychic services to awed gasps filled the room. “This is Beware of “Games” or “Tools.” God does family and friends because they so relaxing”, mused one psychic, “I not use Tarot cards, pendulums (which become “too emotional” and this is wonder if this could be used for is the subconscious at work) or other “harder to read” (or does she not panic attacks?” “Yes”, replied Nancy, such nonsense to talk to REAL psychics. want to fool her own family?) “this technique can help in times of How silly! (But Nancy has a direct line Noble Nancy never charges for stress, and you could use it for heart to ‘god’) finding the murdered, this is her palpitations and other heart condi- “gift of love.” A reading is no gift, but tions.” Does your psychic tell lots of clients they You have now “lost your heart- were someone famous in a previous life- a debt — $175 for a scheduled telephone reading and $350 for beat”. Upon lowering your hands, time? Highly unlikely. (But Nancy spe- you can tune into the body of the cialises in ‘Past Life Regressions’.) urgent readings. For those on a budget, a “one question” reading victim. Check yourself for a pulse. If Does your PSYCHIC tell you they are comes at a mere $75. you have a pulse, you have picked channelling the “Big League” such as When we begin to contact a up the heartbeat of the person, they Jesus, The Virgin Mary, Moses, murder victim, we first need to are alive! If it is slow, the person

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 15 Cummunicating with Victims may be drugged. “If there is no Follow the cord to the victim. Guidance heartbeat you can assume the Chat with them as you go along. Ask The dead body is a perfect one. “At person is dead.” If you don’t have a them for information, a name, age, the minute of death the body is photograph, rely on information details of the murder. Knowledge made whole again. If the person was such as the appearance, gender or thickens the cord and strengthens beheaded, they will have their head age of the person, or the last place your connection to the victim. back again. If they are born without the person was seen. “Don’t go off Occasionally, the cord will wobble an arm, they will have an arm upon what they were wearing, they might and waver. Beware. This is “black death.” They will also have a “fairy be naked now, or have changed energy, the negative energy of a dust appearance. They’ll be all clothes.” perpetrator.” Perhaps the perpetra- sparkly. This is because they are Psychometry, reading a personal tor has returned to “view his handi- changing from breathing to the object owned by the subject, “is a work.” Nancy once worked on the etheric. They don’t need to breathe great tool for beginners.” Nancy case of a murdered female child and anymore.” Soon a deceased loved one claims she once located a murdered felt strong waves through the cord, will appear, to take the person on a child after reading a dirty diaper. “a girl was murdered by a boy in the journey to the other side. “For When you start the reading, you forest and he kept bringing his children, Grandma or Grandpa might also enter into a trance, a classmates along to see the body.” If usually appear. There is nearly “state of suspended animation. It’s you can, maintain your grip on the always someone, a guide, waiting to like absent-mindedness or being on cord, “but if it gets too much for you, collect you on the other side. Only in auto-pilot.” Now you have ‘tuned just drop the cord.” the rare case of a few homeless into’ the person. “Hug them. Reach people have I not seen a relative or out for them and take their hand. Kids’ stuff friend waiting for the deceased.” This puts them at ease and creates a Nancy claims that working with Guides are eager to see their cord, an energy cord. You have children is easier than adults, “kids loved ones, and often impatient to touched them because, astrally, you are easier, they know the other side. escort them to the other side. “Don’t are there.” Comfort the person, tell They are closer to the other side let them transition until you have them, “It’s okay. Nothing more bad than to Earth. Until a child is 7-8 all of the information you need. Your can happen to you now.” Then, most years of age they are still connected job is to put the perpetrator behind people will ask the heart wrenching to the etheric and anxious to go bars.” Explain to the anxious guides question, “Am I dead?” Often they home.” Clearly, children are anxious that you are there to solve the won’t know that they have passed. to die. In contrast, adults are angry, murder, and that this is a gift for the “Don’t lie to the dead!” urged Nancy, bitter and vengeful. “As soon as they family. Ask them to “back off” until “always tell them the truth. Tell see me they start to whine and you’ve gathered the details of the them they’re dead!” shout. All they want is revenge for murder. The victim should not be their death.” Working with children Per ardua ad astral “released from life” until they have may be easier, but it requires tact, responded to the following survey: The energy cord feels “like a spider and patience. web. It’s all gooey and warm and Go to the child. Smile, so that the • Who did this to you? comes out of your fingers.” Don’t let child knows you’re good. Talk softly, • What is their name? go of it! Clutching her hand, Nancy gently, evenly. Sit next to them. explained “once I held the cord for Allow them to talk, to cry, but don’t • What is their age? three days. Showering, driving, push them. Their memories will be sleeping, I never let go.” To ensure painful, and difficult for them to • Can you describe the appearance her grip is tight, Nancy often wraps understand. Cuddle them and don’t of this person? the cord around her neck, or her leave them alone. • What did they say to you? waist. Now, “take yourself astrally to Sometimes they will ask, “Can I the person.” This is when your see Mummy?” Tell them that they • Where did they take you? “etheric body” travels to a desired need to travel over to the other side location, “on a plane, train, through to “prepare a special place so that • Where are they now? the woods…whatever it takes. I Mummy can be with them too one • What events led to your abduc- astral travel all the time. I often visit day.” tion? my cousin in New York and he cries Nancy admitted that animal ‘Get outta here!’” It is a perfectly safe murders caused her the most pain. Then ask the victim for a special process for you to travel to the victim. “Animals are so much more pure word or image to be repeated to their “Your soul won’t stay if you are in than humans”, she explained. Nancy loved ones still on Earth. danger”, explained Nancy, “the cord also performs as an Animal Intui- “You don’t know how comforting will shrivel up. You are a vessel for tive, to diagnose Fido’s depression, and emotional it is for the family to God, and God won’t hurt his vessel.” or Felix’s anxiety. receive a message from the victim. It

Page 16 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 gives them peace of mind and proof things. They are purposeful. Sad, yet envious of the real thing and are run- that someone has spoken to them.” meant to be. In a circular argument ning scared because their limited or Nancy claims that “such a tragedy non-existent gift cannot compete with Cues to clues leads the family to start up a sup- REAL PSYCHICS…RUN!!!!! The psychic will receive all kinds of port group, or set up a charity in the Nancy raised the case of Stacy verbal, visual and cognitive mes- name of the victim.” However, Peterson. “If my name was Peterson, sages during the communication. suicides are unplanned. “If you I’d be changing it! First Laci, then Remember, “Thought travels faster suicide your soul group isn’t pre- Stacy… Peterson!” she joked. “Stacy than sound or light.You might ‘see’ pared. You’ve taken yourself out disappeared in Minnesota…” “No, the crime scene, or colours around prematurely.” Most of us will be Illinois”, corrected Wayne, our sole the deceased. Blue indicates that the recognised by a soul group when we male psychic. “Stacy’s 23 years of body is in water. Brown indicates die. The murdered will be welcomed, age,” (wrong again, she is/was 22) that the body is on land, so does but not the murderer. Solving an “and she’s been missing since early green. Turquoise or aquamarine tells age-old question in abnormal psy- November” (wrong yet again, she us that the body is near water, or on chology, Nancy explained that, was last seen on October 28, 2007). the water’s edge.” “Murderers have no souls. As a “So…is she alive or dead? Who Tip: if the scene is bloody with no result, they have no soul group.” thinks she’s dead?” Nancy asked body it’s a good bet that the scene Taking a break flippantly. Most hands were raised. was staged. “Who thinks she’s alive?” A few Sometimes the ‘victim’ isn’t really We took a brief psychic intermission, hands went up gingerly. I was dead at all, but doesn’t want to be long enough for Nancy to approach conspicuous by not responding to the found, for personal or financial me with curiosity. She gave me a big questions, and Nancy zoomed in on reasons. Sometimes the deceased hug. “Hello darlin’, what’s that me. “What do you think, honey? Go doesn’t want to be found either, if delicious perfume you’re wearing?” by your intuition and you’ll never be they’ve been involved in something “Angel”, I replied, realising that my wrong.” I paused. “I just don’t know sinister, or personally disgraceful. choice made me look like a new age enough about the case to guess”, I “One young girl was involved in porn psychic-in-training, fitting the part replied. “Oh. You don’t know the and didn’t want her family to know well. “I love it. Welcome to our class. details of the case. Okay then. For the circumstances surrounding her You’re a lovely psychic lady who those who said she’s dead, you’re death.” needs more confidence in her psychic correct”, praised Nancy. abilities.” I agreed that I needed a But wouldn’t a non-phony psychic I’ve got the world on a string lot more confidence in ‘my abilities’ ‘know’, regardless of whether they During this turbulent time between indeed! Nancy then introduced me to followed the case or not? Nancy’s Earth and the Other Side, between her regular psychic students, comment suggests that psychic life and death itself, the deceased “they’re all lovely ladies… unless detective work is indeed a guess; will still be in limbo. “The life cord you try to steal their husbands.” assumption, speculation and guess- doesn’t leave for three to five days”, work, all influenced by media Nancy explained. “Notice that when Beware of false prophets coverage of a case. someone dies it doesn’t ‘hit us’ for When the class resumed, Nancy led Throughout the discussion, the the first few days? We start to grieve a discussion about a current case. psychics’ superficial analyses were properly when the life cord disap- She isn’t involved in this one, “as based in stereotyping and bias, and pears.” The life cord is part of the only phony psychics talk about their centred on the victim’s 53 year old chakra system. It grows from our cases and reveal information to the husband, former police officer Gary navel to the centre of the Earth, media. This is an act of love, not to Peterson. Gary is the main suspect connecting us to this plane until be abused.” If it is abused, it is lost. at present, especially in the trial by death. For this reason, never cre- Apparently, psychic Alison DuBois media. The psychics’ comments has “squelched her gift by exploiting mate the deceased for at least three included: “Her husband looks like a it. It’s a God-given trust.” Ironically, to five days after death. “Cremation bully”, “He’s a misogynist”, “He’s a Nancy’s “Phony Psychic” handout before this time doesn’t hurt, but it wife beater”, “He is cold and unfeel- announces: will cause the person to jolt because ing”, “He was jealous of her youth they are still connected to the Does your Psychic badmouth other Psy- and accused her of cheating”, “He Earth”, Nancy quivered to demon- chics, ESPECIALLY accomplished, fa- did away with his previous wife too”, strate the deceased’s reaction to mous or well-known PROVEN “He’s overpowering her”, “She’s premature cremation. PSYCHICS? Beware of the jealousy crying for help and he loves the Deaths are generally predestined, factor. This is a serious giveaway for a sense of control he has over her”. including murders. Murders are phony Psychic, a charlatan, and a planned, in the general scheme of scammer. These “so called” Psychics are Continued p 21 ...

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 17 Technology Electricity From Uranium: Who Needs It?

Taking a sober look at a t is said that nuclear generated Cost of a coal fired power station electricity is needed because contentious topic I Construction costs (2004 estimate) photo-voltaics and wind generation for a 500 MW coal fired power can’t supply the base load electricity station are about $US650 million that is required by large cities. (Wikipedia). If the CO emissions are We need to have large, localised 2 captured, the costs go up. BP and sources of energy. A power plant Rio Tinto are starting feasibility delivering, say, 2 GW is good be- studies into a 500 MW coal-fired cause you can draw 2 GW from a power generation project, estimated single point. But if we try to get the to cost $2 billion, at Kwinana in same output from solar panels, for Western Australia, that will be fully example, it becomes much more difficult. It’s not impossible, but it integrated with technology to becomes more complex to draw as capture and store its greenhouse much energy as you need from a emissions (Warren 2007). I don’t network of low-output sources know how the two billion dollar instantaneously (Pitts et al, 2006). figure was arrived at as there is no way of storing CO at the moment, That is an educated guess, but a 2 guess none the less. Let’s try it and but I will use it. see. An Internet search of the solar Let’s put 2MW wind turbines shops shows that a grid-connected wherever is appropriate on land to array of photovoltaic panels with a generate electricity. However, wind 12.8 kW peak output can be bought farms compete for space with farm- for about $35,000. If both these ing and urban development and figures are multiplied by 39,000 we average wind speeds are higher at find that 500 MW of grid-connected sea than on land. So in addition, let’s peak solar output would cost $1.37 put them on the sea floor. The billion (and two billion dollars would coastal sites for these may be limited buy 730 MW). Perhaps if a govern- so let them be put further out to sea ment agency placed an order for as well. The Norwegian energy 39,000 12.8 kW systems, they would company, Hydro, is developing be able to negotiate a better price. I 2 floating wind turbines to be used in am prepared to offer 25m of my roof deep sea (200-700m) wind farms. Let surface rent free for the installation us also put solar panels on the roofs of one of these systems if I could of all our houses. What will the solar continue to pay $1000 annually for Martin Caon is Senior Lecturer in Biophysical panels cost? Let me ask a different my electricity (my present electricity Science at the School of Nursing and question and answer it before I cost). If 39,000 other Adelaide Midwifery, at Flinders University answer the first one. households were similarly inclined,

Page 18 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 there would be an annual income of generate an uproar. They also Argentina, Spain, Bulgaria, Finland $39 million dollars to the owner of should put the foreseeable dangers etc, show. All generate electricity the arrays. And they would not need of nuclear electricity into perspec- with reactors, but none build nu- to pay for coal or gas to generate the tive. clear weapons. electricity. And they would not need The events at Chernobyl in 1986 The logic behind the suggestion to find a way of storing CO2. And are used to highlight the dangers of that electricity from nuclear reactors they would not need to find a site to nuclear reactors. However, the should not be used because nuclear build the power station on. And the dramatic stories that have appeared weapons exist, is as flawed as electricity distribution wires are in the (generally uninformed) banning metallurgy because military already in place. And each installa- popular media contrast starkly with vehicles, planes, ships, guns and tion need not be limited to 12.8 kW. those provided by reputable scien- bullets are made of metal. It is as On the down side, photovoltaic tific organisations. flawed as: closing down the petro- panels don’t operate at their peak The accident at Chernobyl was a chemical industry because war output for much of the time, and disaster whose consequences are machines run on petrol and diesel; they require maintenance to ensure still being dealt with. Between 30 banning fertiliser because bombs that the inverter is operating prop- and 40 people died as a result of the can be made from it; banning the erly. Furthermore, the peak output event. About 140 people experienced chemical industry because explo- of the array may not be in the period acute radiation sickness (and recov- sives and poison gas are made of of peak electricity demand. Never- ered). 1800 people exposed, as chemicals; scrapping jet engines theless, there should be a utility- children, to radioactive iodine because intercontinental missiles owned (and maintained) contracted (mostly curable) thyroid use jet engines; preventing the study photovoltaic array on every house cancer. Among the heavily studied of microbiology because a contagious roof. recovery workers, who are believed disease might be unleashed as a to have received radiation doses weapon. However, the logic behind Nuclear power too dangerous? large enough to statistically detect eliminating nuclear weapons and all If you were offered a means of changes in their health, no higher of these other terrible technologies producing electricity that would incidence rate of leukaemia cases because they are terrible, is impec- provide employment for more than has been detected. Furthermore, no cable. six million people but 400,000 of increase in other cancers, birth whom would receive radiation at an defects, or other disease that could Waste “effective dose” of 3.8 mSv per be produced by radiation has been An argument that is raised against annum, and 50,000 of whom get 11.3 detected (to date) (Kasper 2003). nuclear electricity is that there is no mSv per annum from their work On the other hand a great many way of getting rid of the non-useful (Liu et al 2007), would you take it? people suffered severe psychological radioactive material that is pro- You would have to accept, as well, an stress and a diminished lifestyle as a duced. That is not quite right. There average annual fatality of 40 work- result of their fear of radiation, is no way of getting rid of the radio- ers in the USA and 5000 in China. distrust of authorities and (often active waste to the satisfaction of If you were offered a seductive (an unwarranted) relocation from their some people. It is possible to tunnel “indispensable”) technology that homes. The Chernobyl reactor was a descending road in a helical shape could be predicted with certainty to flawed in design and so were the into stable ground, and at the be responsible for 1600 fatalities and work practices used there. The designated depth strike out horizon- 22,000 serious injuries each year accident has served to improve the tally with radial tunnels, at the end (and that is just in Australia), could design of future reactors (see below) of which is deposited — encased in the benefit to our way of life offset and the way they are operated. concrete or Australian “SynRoc” — the cost to those lives — accumulat- the radioactive material. The tun- ing at the rate of 23,600 each year? Weapons nels are progressively back filled. I am being somewhat obtuse to It can be argued that nuclear energy Putting radioactive material back make a point. The first offer is leads to nuclear weapons prolifera- into the ground, where it has existed drawn from coal mining in China tion, and if the examples of the USA, since the Earth was formed, is the (frankwarner.typepad.com/ Russia, The United Kingdom, appropriate thing to do. There, its free_frank_warner/2006/01/ France, North Korea, Israel, India radiation will progressively de- us_coal_mining_.htm) while the and Pakistan are considered, it crease. second refers to automobiles and seems to be true. However, there is An argument that should be states Australia’s annual road toll. no causal association between raised against electricity produced These mortality rates from currently energy and proliferation, as the from coal, diesel and gas is that accepted human practices, while of examples of Canada, Sweden, there is no way of getting rid of the undoubted concern, don’t seem to Belgium, Japan, South Korea, CO2 waste that is generated. But

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 19 Electricity from Uranium

this is not quite right either as CO2 slow neutrons to produce uranium233 contains oxides of these metals. For can be absorbed and transformed by which is fissile. Also, all of the mined the year 1982, assuming coal con- green plants. Unfortunately, there thorium is potentially useable in a tains uranium and thorium concen- do not seem to be enough plants on reactor, compared with the 0.7% of trations of 1.3 ppm and 3.2 ppm, earth to cope with the amount of natural uranium. The thorium fuel respectively, each typical coal-fired

CO2 that is being produced. Burying cycle is yet to be commercialised, power plant released 5.2 tons of the CO2 (geosequestration) doesn’t and the effort required seems uranium (containing 33 kg of ura- seem an option either, as gas is unlikely while abundant uranium is nium 235) and 12.8 tons of thorium difficult to contain in an under- available. Nevertheless, the thorium that year (Gabbard 2007). ground “aquifer” that has been fuel cycle might be a significant This “radioactive waste” is not fractured by the act of putting the factor in the long-term sustainability regulated, so can be stored (dumped) gas in there. And the CO2 would of nuclear energy (www.uic.com.au/ anywhere. Coal-fired power plants really have to be kept there forever, nip67.htm ). throughout the world are the major as it (unlike radioactivity) does not sources of radioactive materials How bad can nuclear electricity be? decay. If the CO2 were to escape released to the environment. How- sometime in the future, there would Diehard opponents of nuclear ever, public knowledge (and there- be an “instant” global warming electricity imagine the worst sce- fore public concern) about this seems problem. narios arising from generating to be non-existent. If and when electricity in this way (despite the “clean” coal technology power Reactor technology is not static fact that many countries already stations are built, this “technologi- New generation pressurised-water generate nuclear electricity without cally enhanced naturally occurring nuclear reactors (such as the succumbing to disaster scenarios). radioactive material” will still be Westinghouse AP1000) are claimed On the other hand, conspiracy produced. If China switched to to operate more efficiently and safely theorists could say (perhaps with nuclear generated electricity and than previous designs (eg, the equal authority) that the invasion of stopped coal mining, 5000 coal Chernobyl reactor and the 1940s era Iraq was conducted in the pursuit of miners each year would not die and Windscale piles in the UK) and I oil. Just how bad is nuclear electric- the unregulated release of radioac- don’t doubt that they will when they ity if the loss of life and misery tive material (ie, coal ash) into the are built. They still use water caused by the invasion and occupa- environment would cease. circulating through the core under tion of Iraq — in the pursuit of oil to high pressure to cool the reactor and fuel present energy technology — is Possible ways to generate electricity generate steam. preferable to nuclear electricity? As well as wind-generated and On the other hand, pebble-bed Rusted-on proponents of nuclear photovoltaic generated electricity, modular reactors operate at a higher generating capacity (and others), and power stations using gas, coal or temperature, and use circulating could point to the current predica- uranium as fuel, there seems to be helium gas to cool the reactor and ment humanity finds itself in: that multiple other ways of producing drive the electric turbine (ie, no such massive amounts of CO2 have electricity. steam). However this new type of been added to our atmosphere due to Electricity produced from water reactor is still in development. burning coal and oil, that the ice boiled by geothermal energy (from You might have heard statements caps will melt, the sea level will rise hot rocks) is an exciting develop- like, “Nuclear energy is not going to and inundate low lying coastal land, ment that is happening near be a long term solution for energy. If global temperatures will increase, Innaminka in South Australia — a all the world’s electricity was pro- the world’s climate will change, 40MW demonstration plant being duced by nuclear power, then we agricultural production would be planned for construction perhaps by would run out of uranium in five very adversely affected and that the 2010. Unfortunately, when water is years!” (energy.seekingalpha.com/ world might become an inhospitable injected into the hot rock layers, article/35938). This can be countered place for humans to live. Just how they may move, creating tremors by “Further exploration and higher bad are we being asked to believe and rumbles (earthquakes) as prices will certainly, on the basis of nuclear electricity is, if the present happened in Basel, Switzerland. The present geological knowledge, yield apocalyptic forecast is preferable to earthquake so frightened the locals further resources as present ones producing electricity from uranium? that the project was halted. are used up” (www.uic.com.au/ Coal is an impure fuel. It contains Wave energy converting devices nip75.htm) . trace quantities of many metals, can generate electricity, using the

Well, thorium232 can be used as including uranium and thorium. motion of ocean waves. For example nuclear fuel too and it is more Trace quantities of uranium in coal the “Salter Duck” is a tethered abundant in the Earth’s crust than range from less than 1 to 10 parts floating device where waves turn a uranium. Thorium232 will absorb per million (ppm). Ash from coal cam, that compresses pistons, that

Page 20 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 compress hydraulic oil. The com- field of fusion research for his quote ... Murder victims from p 17 pressed oil then turns a hydraulic (responding to the question of when motor that generates electricity. commercial fusion power would The gossip concluded with the Energetech Australia have built a become available) he said “Fusion estimate that her body would be prototype wave power generator of will be ready when society needs it.” found near water within ten days to 300 kW on the breakwater at Port So who needs electricity from two weeks. This class was conducted Kembla, and trialled it in October uranium? Probably Japan does, as it on November 29, 2007. Sadly, at the 2005. They predict that a full scale has a small land mass and very cold time of editing (three months later), project should power up to 1,500 winters. China and India probably Stacy is still missing. homes, or produce three million do, as it is hard to imagine these two The class ended with a healing litres of desalinated water per day countries being able to generate session. Nancy asked one of the per production unit. sufficient electricity to bring their psychics to perform “extra healing” Seapower Pacific have built massive populations to living stand- upon me. Everyone closed their eyes CETO, a wave energy prototype ards similar to those in the West, by as Nancy uttered a hypnotherapy- anchored permanently on the sea any other means. Does Australia healing-prayer for every part of our floor, (rather than floating) at need electricity from uranium? Not bodies, especially our ears, throats Fremantle. The prototype is ex- yet. But when it is needed, society and sinus passages as she could ‘feel’ pected to generate up to 100 kilo- will divert sufficient resources to it that some of us suffered ENT watts of electricity. In desalination that it will (like fusion energy) be complaints (but it was flu season!) mode, the prototype is expected to ready. And given that reason will My individual healer stood over me, produce about 300,000 litres of fresh always eventually overcome an placing her hands above my head, water per day. irrational scare campaign, I have no and repeating Nancy’s words. Didier Gambier, a scientific doubt that public opinion will advisor on the International Ther- change to accept a safe nuclear Conclusion monuclear Experimental Reactor power station. The lesson had been a blend of (ITER) and on the Joint European psychic theory and personal reli- Torus (the largest fusion experiment gious belief, from clairvoyance to currently in operation) says: “Every References spiritual healing to prayer for the bit of technology, of behaviour, that Kasper K, 2003 Chernobyl: Facts and sick. After the healing, Nancy bid us society can put together so that we Fiction, Health Physics 84(4), 419 all goodnight, and made a special put less CO into the atmosphere 2 Gabbard A, 2007www.ornl.gov/info/ mention of the “lovely psychic lady.” should be used”. The ITER will be ornlreview/rev26-34/text/ Like a psychic Amway scheme, built in Cadarache, France, by a colmain.html. Nancy phoned me the next day to consortium of countries and is due to make sure I “got home safely”, and power up by 2016 (Pitts et al 2006). Liu F, Pan, Z, Liu, S, Chen L, Ma J, invited me to future meetings where Then the demonstration reactor Yang M Wang N, 2007, The estima- I was generously offered a room in DEMO is scheduled to be built, tion of the number of underground her home, “I have regular guests perhaps in 2025, and is intended to coal miners and the annual dose to from New York and San Francisco.” produce ten times the power it coal miners in China, Health Physics, I could easily see how people consumes. Nuclear fusion has the 93(2), 127-132. could become cajoled into the cult of potential to produce vast amounts of Pitts R. Buttery R, Pinches S, 2006, Nancy Bradley. To the uncritical electricity by a method that is safe, Fusion: the way ahead, Physics thinker, Nancy seems to solve all of environmentally friendly, uses small World, 19(3) 20-26. life’s biggest mysteries. Superficially, masses of fuel and produces no CO Warren M, 2006 The Australian May 2 I found her to be charming, charis- or radioactive products. Enormous 21 matic, confident and witty. technical hurdles have to be over- Watt M, Morgan R, Passey R, 2006 As Jennifer B. said to her, “You come first, not the least of which is Experiences with residential grid- are better than any therapist, doctor, how to handle and maintain a connected photovoltaic systems in shrink, or confidant I’ve ever seen.” plasma at 100,000,000 oC, a tem- Australia, ANZSES Clean energy? – In many ways, this article is in perature that will vaporise anything Can do! www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/ bad taste, but it must be emphasised in the near vicinity. Fusion skeptics content/userDocs/ that it is in Nancy’s own words. So, joke that “Fusion is the power of the WattMorganPasseySolar06.pdf to finish in her own words: future and always will be.” On the Wikipedia, 2007 Fossil fuel power other hand, Lev Artsimovich (a DON’T DEGRADE YOURSELF IF plant en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ prominent Soviet physicist after YOU HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN BY A Fossil_fuel_power_plant (August whom the Artsimovich crater on the PHONY PSYCHIC. THESE PEOPLE 2007) moon is named) is famous in the ARE SLICK CON ARTISTS.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 21 History of Ideas

Vitalism and the Origins of Magical, Mystical Energies Pt 1

A study of the historical roots of ttempts by the ancients to make These include: sense of the natural world often • pneuma and entelechia (Aristo- modern irrationality A resulted in the evolution of many tle); erroneous concepts, such as super- anima mundi (the world soul); stition, magic and religion. One • particularly fallacious belief of • spiritus vitae (the spirit of life); ancient times was the concept of • spiritus naturae (“natural Vitalism, “The metaphysical doc- spirit” or the spirit of nature); trine that living organisms possess a non-physical inner force or energy • vis essentialis (essential force or that gives them the property of life” energy); (Carroll, 2003, p.402). • animal spirits; anima sensitiva The concept survives even today in (sensitive animal nature or soul); such common terms as when some- one is said to have ‘low vitality’ or • subtle fluid; when we refer to a person’s ‘vital • the breath of life; signs’. The basis of Vitalism was the • Qi or Ch’i (“vital essence”); existence of a very special ‘substance’ - a form of spiritual life-energy, “… an • Prana (breath or “vital energy”); active force that differs from any- • vis medicatrix naturae (the thing possessed by non-living mat- healing power of Nature); ter…” (Haller, 1986, p. 81). According to vitalistic beliefs, this ‘force’ had • Archeus (Paracelsus and van originally created, animated and Helmont); continued to sustain all forms of life • Animal Magnetism; universalus throughout the entire cosmos. plasticus (“universal plastic”— Francis Essentially, the concept of Glisson, 1597-1677); Vitalism was a pre-scientific attempt to explain the concept of life by att- • materia vitae diffusa (“diffused ributing it to some form of super- life material” — William Hunter 1718- natural or “divine” animating 1783); energy, what Hume (1783) described • the “monad” (Leibnitz, 1646- as, “… a spiritual substance … 1676); dispersed throughout the universe”. The concept of this ‘force’ as a • the Odic force (Baron Carl von ‘spirit’ pervades Eastern and West- Reichenbach, 1788-1869); ern philosophy and, throughout the • Ethereal Substance (Rudolf Laurie Eddie, Secretary of Skeptics SA, and a ages, it has been known under Steiner, 1861 - 1925); Life Member of the Skeptics, is a psychologist. various names.

Page 22 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 • the Etheric Body (Leadbeater The name, from the Hebrew word Let two, or at the most three parts of and Besant); go¯lem, meaning ‘a thing without life our Mercury liquefy, one part of silver or form’ (see: Psalms 139:16, “thy or gold of the vulgar, subtiliated*, and Orgone, or “life-energy” • eyes beheld my unformed sub- they will become one body, spongious (Wilhelm Reich, 1897-1957); stance”), was perceived as a crea- and inseparable, which is called our • Innate Intelligence (D.D. ture, created from clay or the dust of silver or gold, and not of the vulgar… Palmer, 1845-1913); the ground which, just as God had (*subtle) breathed ‘the breath of life’ into the • Vital Force (J.F.A. Howard); or Although the creation of life was nostrils of Adam, also had to be never achieved, it was widely • the morphogenetic force (Rupert animated by magical means. believed that certain individuals had Sheldrake). There were various ways to do access to some of the universal life- this; the creature could be given life energy. They were believed to be Widespread concept either by speaking the shem (Shem able to use it for benevolent pur- The concept of a universal life- Hameforash), the ineffable and poses, such as healing, or malevo- energy is quite widespread and is to secret name of God over the crea- lently, to injure, to destroy, or to be found in many diverse beliefs ture, or by placing this mystical “bind up” (ie, by tying magical including, for example, that of name upon the creature. Another knots), or driving pegs into the Blundell (1985) who claims that version said that it was sufficient to ground, to remove the sexual energy many of the European stone circles inscribe upon the creature’s fore- from a male or female, rendering (eg, Stonehenge) are, “… linked head the Hebrew word emeth (truth) them sterile. together by a strong but indefinable and, while this mystical name Healing was usually performed by ‘life force’” (p. 137) transmitted along remained in place, the creature a ‘healer’ touching the sick (eg, Acts “lines of force” called ley lines. In the would continue to have life. How- 3:7), a technique known as laying on past, the ultimate objective of all ever, If the name was removed, the of hands and later as the King’s magical arts was to possess this life- creature would immediately become Touch. Alternatively, the healer energy so that one could use it to lifeless. There were many allegorical could apply some bodily fluid, eg, animate either the dead or lifeless tales in Talmudic literature of where Jesus is said to have used his substances, so as to gain personal certain Jewish sages who created spittle to cure blindness (John 9:6). knowledge and power. living creatures; one rabbi was It was also claimed that the sick This energy was believed to exist reputed to have created a “man” could be healed simply by coming in many forms and, for many, it was while two other rabbis were said to into contact with or touching the inherent within the secret names of create for themselves, on the eve of “holy” person, eg, “If I may touch but power of the various deities. Arabs every Sabbath a calf, which they his clothes, I shall be whole” (Mark believe that God had 99 names, all ate. 5:28 ). with great magical powers (the By the Middle Ages such tales Asmau as-Sifat, “The Names of the were quite common, and it was The concept of immortality Attributes of God). It was believed generally claimed these creatures An extremely pervasive concept, that if God was adjured by any of had been created by using certain Vitalism spawned a variety of these names, he would fulfil the spells from the Sefer Yetsirah (The superstitious beliefs including that wish or prayer of the person making Book of Creation). Such tales in- of survival after death and reincar- the request; it was also said that “… creasingly told how these human - nation. Most religious beliefs are he who recites them shall enter like creatures were created as based upon variations of the theme Paradise.” This ‘Names of Power’ servants. Unfortunately however, of immortality, the concept that was the basis of numerous tales and, because they lacked a brain, they some part of the being (the vital although actual metal or clay idols were prone to misunderstanding animating principle), could survive existed that were able to speak and their master’s commands, and so death and enter a new phase of prophesise and were said to have tended to be more destructive than eternal existence. Such beliefs were been animated by such means, they helpful. Goethe’s tale of the Sorcer- especially exemplified by the ex- were merely bogus contraptions er’s Apprentice is one example of this travagances of some cultures, in used to deceive gullible believers. type of allegory. particular the ancient Egyptians, who spent much of their life and Hebrew folklore Alchemists wealth preparing for life-after-death. Other examples are found amongst Nevertheless, the belief persisted in The creation of life was also ex- certain Chinese emperors and even ancient times that lifeless objects tremely popular with the Alche- the much later Christian preoccupa- could be given life. Based on the mists. In one text, the Cabala tion with the memento mori and a myths of Genesis 2:7, the concept of Mineralis, a formula is even pro- concept of mortality that empha- the Golem arose in Hebrew folklore. vided for the creation of life:

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 23 Vitalism sised, over and above all, matters of charge of power” (Walker, 1970, p. rather than decreased. Such appar- earthly existence, the ultimate 25). Thus, it was a common practice ent contradictions of scientific importance of the soul and final for young females, especially from principles present no real problem to salvation. aristocratic families, to be supporters of alternative beliefs, for The importance of a natural deflowered by a priapic substitute, this is merely one of many areas creative life-force probably had its usually an ithyphallic statue, an act that are satisfactorily explained by greatest impact upon early farmers that ‘safely’ returned the vital Vitalistic theories. who, seeing the planted seed “magi- energy to the deity. Much later, According to Vitalism, even cally” transformed into abundant Avicenna provided a pseudo-scien- though a physical substance may be crops, must have viewed it as a tific rationale for the debilitating diluted endlessly, the inherent wondrous process involving forces effects of intercourse. He calculated essential vitality — the life-force totally beyond their comprehension. that since it required forty ounces within that substance — is not Even more wondrous was the role of (1.13 litres) of male blood to create diluted; indeed, can never be diluted. this life-force in human procreation. one ounce (28 millilitres) of semen, The original amount of energy is It seems likely that, long before the act of intercourse for a male was simply spread throughout the humans adopted an agrarian life- equal to losing forty ounces of blood greatly increased volume, with no style, they had already realised that from a wound (De’ath, pp. 64-65). loss of its initial potency! Such are they too had an important role in One aspect of vitalism was the the claims of homeopathy. Its crea- the cycle of nature. belief that, since human sperm was tor, Hahnemann, declared that the divinely created, it must contain process of dilution could reduce the Sexual rituals some part of the divine life-force and potentially harmful effects of sub- As humans settled into communi- so it would be a serious transgres- stances and especially poisons. ties, the act of sexual intercourse, sion to waste this sacred material. Nevertheless, the inherent vitality considered to be the sole human This concept, satirised by the words — the spiritual essence of the contribution to the creation of life, of the Monty Python song, “Every substance — remained undiluted, took on an increasingly more sacred sperm is sacred, Every sperm is and so was able to transmit its role becoming, in many cultures, the great. If a sperm is wasted, God gets healing potential as a form of innate keystone of many religious beliefs. quite irate”, explains the refusal by healing ‘memory’. This led to a continuum of sexual some religious groups to use contra- Hahnemann was not the origina- behaviour ranging from sacred ception, and such irrational concepts tor of such bizarre concepts; they prostitution through to celibacy. In as the ‘sin’ of Onanism where, by had long been part of mystical, ancient Babylon, for instance, spilling his seed onto the ground, religious and philosophical tradition, women were required once in their Onan (Genesis 38:9-10) committed which taught that, since these life- life to attend the temple of Mylitta an act so heinous that God executed energies were divine in origin, they (the goddess of fertility and child- him. must possess a supernatural quality birth), and surrender themselves to that enabled them to spread their any man willing to pay for her Alternative therapies power undiminished throughout the services, the sexual act being “de- Particularly relevant to this study is entire cosmos. No matter how widely voted” to the deity. (De Selincourt, p. the relationship between Vitalism this life-energy might expand and 94). At the other end of the con- and the multitude of so-called spread, each new portion would tinuum was to be found the practices alternative and complementary always contain the same amount of of limiting sexual intercourse to therapies, for most are apparently life-energy as the original. procreative purposes only, through based upon some form of Vitalism. to total celibacy. Established as they are upon Ancient origins In ancient times it was commonly rather nebulous, non-empirical To better understand the origins of believed that all acts of intercourse principles, alternative therapies in such perplexing concepts, one must ‘released’ some of the creative life- general tend to be somewhat per- completely abandon modern scien- energy and, since Virgins were plexing to those not accustomed to tific concepts and adopt a non- believed to be filled with an abun- their particular form of bizarre empirical mind-set, where one can dance of this life-energy (enough to ‘logic’; this is one of the areas that readily accept the most incredible fertilise entire fields), intercourse will be examined in this essay. assertions without the need of the with a virgin was considered par- Thus, for example, we find that slightest piece of actual evidence; a ticularly hazardous. The energy the homeopathic ‘law’ of realm where, as Hall (1928) ob- released in deflowering a virgin was potentisation, in what is clearly a served, one could possess, “… rays considered such that it could totally contradiction of accepted scientific from the Star of Bethlehem, … the overwhelm any male not, “… suffi- principles; claims that by diluting a snout of a seraph, a finger nail of a ciently exalted to withstand the substance, its potency is increased, cherub, the horns of Moses, and a

Page 24 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 casket containing the breath of Jesus. Like the Sun, they were both Although at first the heavenly Christ!” (p. 125). born in caves, and the claim that omens were studied primarily to To the ancients the entire cosmos Jesus built his church upon the rock guide the destiny of cities and was the creation of a single ‘divine’ (Peter, or, Petros = the rock). states, these new ideas gradually entity. Rather like the Masonic Trees, as the embodiment of influenced the development of a concept of a “great master architect”, creation and life, feature in a more personalised role for these this being was said to have created number of mythologies; in Nordic divine omens, a concern as to how the present cosmos out of the prime- myth there was Yggdrasl, the great these forces influenced the individu- val chaos, then fashioned the primal ash tree that bound earth, heaven al’s destiny, at birth, and throughout deities who, because of their proxim- and hell together, and in Polynesia their life. ity to the early creation, were the Tree of Speech. Both were Given the general beliefs in a imbued with the creative life-energy gathering places of the gods that universal animating energy, there of this supreme being. They, in their grew near magical fountains. In remained a number of mysteries — turn, fashioned all life upon Earth. Judaic mythology we have the “tree how did this life-force animate the The end result was that, even of the knowledge of good and evil”. body? Where did it reside? Attempt- though the cosmos was composed of Frazer (1922) noted that tree wor- ing to answer these puzzling ques- many separate components, each ship was widely observed by many tions led to the origin of various part was inexorably linked to the cultures. It was a common practice theories, predominantly centred other by familial bonds. As a result, amongst many American Indian around two specific areas, blood and everything that occurred in the tribes to hug trees to communicate air. cosmos was, in some way or another, with the spirit of the trees and to influenced and affected by every gain some of their strength and Blood other part. endurance, and it is recorded that Early humans must have observed This provided an ideal environ- the great German statesman, Otto how loss of blood could produce ment for magical and superstitious Von Bismarck (1815-1898) used to physical weakness, even death. It beliefs to flourish, for it presupposed embrace a tree before going into appears they early concluded that that all human life and destiny were battle. So powerful was this belief in the animating energy was either a inexorably linked to the rest of the many primitive cultures, that only component of the blood or else some cosmos by many other invisible fallen branches (considered to have external force “absorbed” by the connections. Thus, nothing that ‘died’) were used for firewood or blood and that, when the blood was might occur in an individual’s daily tools. In some cultures, when it was lost, the life-force departed with it, life, no matter how small, was necessary to chop down a tree or causing death. Such beliefs are perceived as random, rather each remove a plant from the ground, the mirrored in ancient tradition, “… the incident was perceived as being spirit of the plant had first to be blood is the life” (Deuteronomy influenced by events taking place appeased with prayers and supplica- 12:23); “… the life of the flesh is in somewhere else in the cosmos. tions. the blood,” (Leviticus 17:11); and Concepts such as good or bad luck, As warnings of forthcoming “The Spirit being diffused and going that we perceive as entirely arbi- events such ‘signs’ were considered through the veins, and arteries, and trary and capricious, were consid- so important that they required blood, both moveth the living Crea- ered to be rewards or punishments special interpreters — adepts skilled ture, and after a certain manner for some previous actions that the in the understanding of the many beareth it” (Corpus Hermetica, IV, individual had done to either gratify and varied heavenly omens. In time, 47). or upset the elemental cosmic forces. such ideas led to the ill-conceived art Based upon such beliefs, many of astrology, established on the belief cultures came to accept the idea that Signs and portents that everything on Earth was humans had originally been created controlled by events in the Macro- from blood; thus, in Babylonian From ancient times, stones had been cosm. But humans went even myth, humans were said to have erected to mark territorial bounda- further; from their observations that been created from the blood of ries for, sacred as they were to the stars traced an endless path Merodach, the son of Ea; similarly, Hermes, the god of boundaries through the heavens, they proposed according to the Koran, man was (referred to by Herodotus as “the that perhaps humans too were created from “congealed blood” pebbly Hermus”) few would dare to destined to endlessly repeat their (Koran 96). interfere with them. It was this cycles of life, destined to travel an Because of its association with the same sacred quality that made endless path, constantly repeating creation process and deity, blood was stones suitable for gravestones, and cycles of life upon Earth, or were increasingly perceived as a particu- the remnants of such beliefs of the perhaps predestined to follow larly “sacred” substance, and many life-power of stones persist in the special restrictions concerning the myths and tales of the many ‘rock- courses which had been mapped out disposal of blood emerged. It was not born’ deities, such as Mithra and for them long before their birth.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 25 Vitalism to be ingested by humans, “But flesh restrictions regarding the shedding contain some special ‘animating’ or with the life thereof, which is the of blood were devised, not so much life-giving power. blood thereof, shall ye not eat” for moral purposes, but to avoid the It was uncertain as to whether (Genesis 9:4) and, “Only be sure that release of the powerful and mysteri- this animating principle was the air thou eat not the blood: for the blood ous soul-power that blood contained itself, or something within the air. is the life; and thou mayest not eat (Robinson, 1971, p. 715). Most Empodocles (504 — 443 BC), be- the life with the flesh” (Deuteronomy fearsome of all was menstrual blood lieved that the actual essence of life 12: 23). Blood was to be either which, according to Pliny, was so was a form of ‘subtle fire’ that was returned to the creator, or poured on filled with noxious energy that it present in all matter, including the the ground, “… thou shalt pour it could sour new wine and render air. Some, like Diogenes, even upon the earth as water” (Deuter- infertile crops and fruit trees ex- claimed the soul was composed of onomy 12: 24). posed to it (Book VII, XV.). It was air, a substance described by Aristo- even claimed that venomous snakes tle (1987) as, “… the primordial Sacrifice were born of the buried hair of principle from which all other things In many cultures, sacrificial blood, menstruating women. are derived, it is cognitive; as finest especially human (considered the Certain ancient Greeks, eg, in grain, it has the power to origi- most potent), served as a means of Erasistratus and Galen, perceived nate movement” (Book 1, II). returning the life-energy to the the body as an apparatus that In numerous creation myths the various deities, and indeed many, ‘distilled’ the vital-spirit (the ‘breath of life’ was the animator and like the Incas and Mayans, believed pneuma) which flowed from the sustainer of life, and deities were the deities would die if deprived of heart to the brain, where the san- frequently depicted as breathing life this nourishment (Crawley, 1971, p. guine humour (blood) was added, (air) into inanimate substances 13). Sacrificial blood was also then it was distributed to the other shaped from dust or clay into human perceived as a powerful cleansing organs, via the nervous system. form. For example, “Then the Lord agent for baptism into a new Certainly, by the time of Galen (circa God formed man of dust from the faith.Thus, Mithraic baptism re- 129 — 200 AD), it was widely ground, and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man quired candidates to kneel below a accepted that the blood was the real became a living soul” (Genesis 2:7). altar upon which a bull was sacri- source of life because it contained This is a reference to the Hebrew ficed. Drenched by the flow of living the ‘vital-spirit’. Later theorists only nph (nephesh), either a life force or blood, they were considered to be reinforced this belief and so we find an animating spiritual-energy, washed clean of their past sins and that in the 1620s, even while Harvey related in particular to the concept accepted into the faith. was providing a scientific explana- of drawing breath, or to breathe. We It was widely accepted that most tion for circulation, a colleague, can find further references relating of the saviour deities had sacrificed Robert Fludd, was proposing the nephesh to the life principle; “… all their own blood for humankind and, idea of a universal or “catholic” by this means, provided their flesh in which is the breath of life…” spirit, a force he claimed was emit- followers with divine redemption (Genesis 6:17); “… two and two of all ted from the sun to give life to all and salvation; a new life, washed flesh in which there was the breath things. Acting like a miniature sun, clean of sin. Many religions use this of life” (Genesis 7:15). In 1 Kings we the human heart “… distributes the concept allegorically, as for example find a reference to the widow’s son vital spirit to the rest of the body by in the words of the Christian hymn, who fell sick and died “ … and his a process of circulatory currents, in sickness was so sore, that there was There is power, power, wonder working the same way as the sun’s catholic power no breath (nephesh) left in him” spirit spreads across the earth” (17:17). Despite his death, he was In the blood of the Lamb. (Hellman, 2001. p. 9). restored to life by Elijah, “… the In time, other less brutal methods Air nephesh (life) of the child returned were substituted for human and and he revived” (17:22). Finally, in animal sacrifices; the vivifying The substance which Pliny referred the Book of Job we find, “In his hand energy of blood was replaced by to as, “that spirit, which both the is the life of every living thing and liquids such as water, beer, milk or Greeks and ourselves call by the the breath of all mankind” (12:10). wine, “… the ‘blood of the grape’ and same name, air” (Book II. IV) was Many ancient cultures believed thus the ‘blood of the earth’, a long thought to be involved with the that the blood vessels were filled spiritual beverage that invigorates life-principle. Not only did breathing with air. The ancient Egyptians gods and men (Encyclopædia cease with death but, although believed that humans were ani- Britannica, vol. 26, p. 840). invisible, air in the form of wind had mated by the ‘breath of life’ (tjaw n To the ancients, blood was a the power to move even heavy ankh), a substance that entered the fearsome substance filled with objects. So it seemed logical that air, body either through the right ear awesome energy and many of the one of the four elements, must (Nunn, 1996 p. 103), or through the

Page 26 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 nose, “As for the breath which enters five elemental forces (air, fire, water, Nous was the purest, most power- into the nose, it enters into the heart earth and space), combine in the ful substance in the cosmos, a form and the lungs. It is they which give body to form three harmoniously of natural intelligence with knowl- to the entire body” (Nunn, p. 55, balanced pairs of doshas (the edge of and power over all things. To quoting from the Ebers papyrus). tridoshas, water appears in two of Anaxagoras it was the original For the Hindus and Buddhists, the doshas), and that mental or intelligence that had first brought prana (Sanskrit for “life force” or physical illness was due to imbal- order out of the primeval chaos and “breath of life” - Feuerstein, 1987), ances between the doshas. then implemented the processes was a form of breath, or a life- These beliefs appear to have necessary to produce the existing current, thought to exist within the influenced Hellenic medicine, for cosmos. air. As one of the three substances around 450 BCE Empedocles pro- The Logos, or Pneuma (literally, that composed the human body, it posed a somewhat similar concept air, wind, spirit, or the ‘breath of was perceived as a form of life- involving a connection between the life’), was thought to be a universal energy drawn into the body with four basic elements (air, fire, earth animating substance. Although a each breath. To the Chinese, this and water); and four bodily hu- purely spiritual force, it contained energy was known as Qi, or ch’i, mours. Like the Eastern model, it an innate ability to create all forms “vital or heavenly air” (Mainfort, proposed that all matter, including of physical matter and to shape and 2004, p. 38) and was believed to humans, had been created from animate all forms of life. First originate in the sun. Ch’i was per- these four basic elements, with the mentioned by Heraclitus, it was ceived as a form of radiant energy, characteristics of each Individual embraced by the Stoics and later by “… strong enough to blow the tails of being determined by their own the Jewish philosopher Philo of comets as if in a strong wind” “unique balance” of these elements, Alexandria, who viewed it as the (Teresi, 2002, p. 149). Variations on with the predominant element divine word of God that, when this theme remain part of the producing the primary characteris- uttered, brought the world into Eastern culture; in Thailand a form tics of physical appearance and being (cf, Isaiah 55:11). It is also the of alternative therapy is practised; behaviour. substance referred to in John 1. known as Chi Nei Tsang II. This This model, which dominated After Aristotle established a clear therapy is based upon a theory of, Western medical philosophy until distinction between organic and “… ‘good Chi” and at least ten kinds the Middle Ages, attributed all inorganic materials, both vitalistic of bodily ‘wind’ (flatus), including the sickness and disease to imbalances, and scientific theories of life became “sick or evil wind” (Raso, 1996). either a deficiency, or a surplus of increasingly identified with organic Although Galen discovered that one or more humours (elements), in (living) matter. However, this did not blood, and not air, flowed through the body. Although the humoural result in the demise of the old the veins and arteries, his findings theory was an attempt to explain life traditional concepts and there were generally ignored. Western in a more secular context, it was remained an interest in such issues medicine continued to teach that the really only a variation of the as the ‘inherent power’ within arteries were filled with air and vitalistic concept, merely substitut- nature and living matter and, in spirit (Hellman, 2001, p. 7), a ing vague elemental forces for a particular, how this interacted with concept that was more acceptable to divine animating power which the and affected the spiritual component the Christian Church. While this ancient Greeks referred to by a of humans. belief was finally discarded in the variety of terms, including Arche, From the Renaissance onwards, West after 1628, when Harvey Apeiron, Nous or Pneuma. Western medicine began to increas- published his book De Motu Cordis, Arche was the original source — ingly break free of the old traditional as Mainfort (2004) observed, it the ‘first principle’ — which, accord- methods, becoming more empirical, remained an essential element of ing to Thales of Miletus, was water. more willing to challence what had traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) His pupil Anaximander disagreed, previously been accepted as ‘holy until around 1830 (p. 39). arguing that ‘contrary’ elemental writ’. However, while the new forces, particularly fire, could not approach swept away many of the Elemental medicine emerge from water. He proposed old superstitious and counterfeit- Ancient Eastern medicine consid- another alternative, a mysterious scientific beliefs, they were never ered humans to have been created substance called Apeiron, a “fifth completely extinguished, often from a combination of elemental element”, a superlunary substance finding refuge on the fringe of substances. In TCM, these were which, because it had the inherent medicine as alternatives to the more earth, fire, metal, water, wood. In power to combine the opposite orthodox medical practices. Ayurvedic, air, earth, ether, fire and characteristics of all things, was able water. These beliefs remain the to take on the properties, shape and The second part of this article, cornerstones of both TCM and substance of all things, and to gave complete with a list of references, Ayurvedic, which still teaches that life to the entire cosmos. will appear in the next issue.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 27 Convention Paper Evidence Based Psychotherapy

Finding evidence among the A History and Current Status of practitioner’, keeping a close eye on thickets of belief Skeptical Clinical Psychology. A the psychotherapy outcome re- paper presented at the National search. Convention, Hobart, on November I am thus part of an, unfortu- 18, 2007) nately, rare breed. The largest psychologists’ organisation in The Issue Australia, the Australian Psycho- he postgraduate schools of logical Society, has numerous official Tpsychology based in the univer- interest groups, including: sities around Australia, where Buddhism and Psychology; clinical psychologists are (we hope) Christianity and Psychology; educated and not just trained, vary Narrative Theory and Practice in Psy- in their theoretical orientations and chology; emphases. Some are more traditional and include substantial elements of Psychology and Complementary and training in psychotherapeutic Alternative Medicine; and approaches, such as psychoanalysis, Sufism and Psychology. Gestalt therapy, narrative therapy, But it hasn’t one for Evidence- and Rogerian client-centred therapy. based Psychotherapy! Others endorse the ‘scientist-practi- It appears the APS is more tioner’ model, and educate their interested in being inclusive, numer- students in what evidence and the ous, and hence politically powerful, scientific method mean, and how to than exclusive, hard-nosed, science- critically read the literature in order based, small, but distinctive (from to continue their education. These the many other ‘softer’ helping latter courses subsequently tend to professions). This is despite the fact train practitioners in evidence-based that what enabled clinical psycholo- approaches such as cognitive- gists to grow from measuring-and- behaviour therapy (CBT) and inter- testing handmaidens for personal psychotherapy (IPT). psychiatrists in mental institutions, I was lucky enough to be educated to independent specialists in non- and trained in Hobart at a time drug psychotherapeutic techniques, when evidence-based psychotherapy was an emphasis on measurement, was in vogue. Although I am not science, evidence, and outcome fully a ‘scientist-practitioner’, research. Other helping professions because in private practice have resorted to postmodern stances generalisable controlled research is to seek status within medical, legal, Gary Bakker, a clinical psychologist and long- not feasible, I have tried for the past and political structures ie, “Our time Skeptic, practices in northern Tasmania. 27 years to be a ‘science-based subjective qualitative knowledge is

Page 28 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 just as ‘true’ and just as Table 1 illogical, or overreacting, or valuable as your quantitative, Examples of the sorts of problems clinical psychologists try to help with not parenting correctly. ‘scientific’ knowledge.” Subsequent to all of The situation is worse in Anxiety disorders —Generalized Anxiety Disorder this, over 400 different the US, where a recent survey —Social Phobia psychological theories and identified only 11% of the —Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder related therapies have psychotherapy practised there —Panic Disorder and Agoraphobia appeared in the literature. as evidence-based. —Specific Phobias How can I, as a profes- In Australia, we may have —PTSD sional, accountable, ethi- to rely on non-psychologists to Depression cal, registered, push the barrow — even Relationship problems eg, marital fee-charging, science-based politicians, who want some Parenting problems practitioner, choose among bang for their buck. The Eating disorders —anorexia them? recent inclusion of psychologi- —bulimia Relevant Psychotherapy cal services in the Medicare Chronic pain schedule specifies on its Substance abuse/dependence Research referral forms (though it does Gambling problems There are two especially not prescribe) evidence-based Sleep problems relevant criteria I can use therapies. Even here, though, Sexual difficulties in my choices: politics has intruded. Also Anger management (a) Which therapies are eligible for Medicare rebate Bedwetting derived from established are narrative therapy ses- research-supported theo- sions, if provided to clients of ries? Aboriginal or Torres Strait islander include schizophrenia and bipolar (b) And which therapies have real descent. I know of no outcome affective disorder. controlled outcome study support? research supportive of narrative Origins I like to use these two criteria to therapy (derived from a postmodern place available therapies on what I philosophy) over and above CBT, let Unfortunately clinical psychology, call the ‘loopiness spectrum’. (See alone specifically with Aboriginal unlike the ‘hard’ sciences, did not Figure 1) To the far left of this clients. grow out of a body of 19th Century spectrum are therapies which basic research. It grew out of phi- contradict what we know about the Who do clinical psychologists help? losophy. Psychology’s first ‘theories’ world. They defy the laws of nature, The sorts of therapies that clinical were actually elaborate hypotheses. anatomy, biochemistry, physics, or psychologists offer are mainly aimed They weren’t developed scientifically psychology. In the middle are thera- at the ‘intermediate’-type problems at all. The methods used were pies that could conceivably work, listed in Table 1. introspection, guesswork, verbal without us having to rewrite most of These are intermediate in the play with concepts, and subjective our university textbooks, but have sense that at one end of the con- interpretation games. no objective efficacy support beyond tinuum are common ‘problems in Further, psychology is something tradition, assertion, or anecdote. living’, such as life stresses, life we all have experience, opinions, What we know can work, and makes transitions, bereavement, etc. For and theories about. Few people have some sense, is on the right of the these difficult, but transitional, strong opinions on the relative spectrum. situations, a clinical psychologist is merits of box girder versus suspen- I recently received an offer of an expensive source of support. A sion bridges, but we all seem to be malpractice insurance that listed 91 counsellor, clergyman, mother, able to tell when someone is being ‘approved modalities’ they would friend, or boss could do just as good cover me for. Among the clearly a job. At the other end ‘loopy’ ones were of the continuum are crystal therapy, Figure 1: The Loopiness Spectrum serious mental feng shui, home- illnesses, probably Loopy Unproven Proven opathy, iridology, with a crucial bio- reflexology, and chemical basis, for No, or negative, outcome research Lots of outcome research support Reiki. Among the which medications are Not consistent with established body Consistent with established body of middling ‘un- considered the first of knowledge (anatomy, bio- knowledge proven’ ones were line of treatment, and chemistry, learning theory…) aromatherapy, for which you would Based on faith Objective, disprovable, based on colour therapy, likely consult a science emotional freedom psychiatrist. These Easy simplistic answers Complex, difficult answers techniques, flower

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 29 Evidence Based Psychotherapy remedies, hypnotherapy, magnetic folklore, and Adler preferred to focus necessary to explain even very field therapy, and neuro linguistic on power. As none of them recog- simple behaviour changes, such as programming. (Where exactly on the nized an objective (scientific) means those that occurred through observa- loopiness spectrum these sit is, of to establish the truth, the schisms tional or vicarious learning or course, open to debate). continue today, a hundred years on. modelling. When this did not plunge When we apply our two criteria to Largely as a reaction to this anti- experimental psychology into chaos, this mess of fads, and to the tradi- scientific speculative process, a others such as Albert Ellis and tional psychotherapies, what movement began in the 1920s, Aaron Beck developed Cognitive- emerges? Let’s take criterion (a) peaking in the 1950s, called Radical Behaviour Therapy (CBT) by apply- first. It is very possible to test the Behaviourism. In an attempt to ing the principles and techniques of underlying theories. Two examples bring some science into the picture, learning theory and behaviour would be: (i) Do more people who researchers such as JB Watson and therapy to stimuli, behaviours, were weaned early become smokers? BF Skinner rejected everything but emotions, and cognitions. The model This checks a psychoanalytic hy- observable behaviour. This meant no longer had gaps, had more pothesis about ‘oral fixation’. (ii) that some solid, verifiable, progres- acceptability or face validity, and Does a randomized intermittent sive, consensual science could be was found to produce very effective reinforcement schedule on poker done. And they developed a robust therapies. machines keep people playing them? and valuable body of knowledge, This checks a conditioning theory labelled learning theory or condi- What Works? hypothesis about intermittent tioning theory. Which brings us to our second major reward systems. criterion: What actually objec- So, here is a potted history of Table 2: tively works, in and of itself, Testing the Theories: Oxford Centre for Evidence-based Medicine beyond placebo/expectancy/ Levels of Evidence suggestion/attention effects. History As an empiricist, this is an Level As touched on already, the early even more important question to 1a Systematic review of RCTs theories in clinical psychology, such me. If Custard Therapy is shown 1b Individual RCT as Sigmund Freud’s psychoanalytic by a series of peer-reviewed, theory, were developed by intro- internationally replicated, 2a Systematic review of cohort studies spection, ‘serious hard thinking’, randomized controlled trials, to 2b Individual cohort study or low quality RCT and subjective, uncontrolled, non- fix depression quicker and more randomised, single case studies permanently than CBT, then I’ll 3a Systematic review of case-control studies with undefined measures and no use it! 3b Individual case-control study null hypothesis testing. This latter Modern medicine is becoming feature meant that they couldn’t be more and more evidence-based 4 Case-series or poor quality cohort and case- wrong. If a patient reacted as and is finding out just how much control studies predicted it was put down to it used to rely on placebo effects, ‘projection’ or ‘sublimation’ or some and spontaneous remission. One 5 Expert opinion or based on theory other hypothetical construct would expect that, of all the embedded in the theory. If they did professions, psychologists would the opposite to that predicted, there understand the power of placebo, was some part of the theory to cover The behaviour therapies (such as suggestion, and expectancy effects, it; for Freud it was ‘reaction forma- aversion therapy) that arose from and allow for them in their research tion’. Freud did not conduct one this were more verifiably effective, and subsequent theories. randomized controlled study in his even at this primitive stage, than Furthermore, psychology studies life. psychoanalysis, hypnosis, etc. But complex moving systems that are Because the elements of the their effectiveness was largely hard to control, both practically and theory were arbitrary, in the sense of confined to animals, young children, ethically. It is therefore much more being derived from speculation and institutions. With individual like agricultural science or horticul- rather than any application of the adults, therapy suffered from the ture or meteorology, than like scientific method, numerous equally exclusion of the ‘black box’ factors — physics or chemistry, in its research impressive intellects then produced of cognition, self-talk, beliefs, atti- techniques. It has to use careful their own alternative, contradictory tudes, etc. elaborate experimental techniques theories, such as Carl Jung’s and Then Albert Bandura, and others, and statistical significance or trend Alfred Adler’s, each depending upon recommended we accept the intro- analysis to extract its research their own personal preoccupations. duction of cognitions into the model, conclusions. Freud was obsessed with sex, Jung on the assumption that self-report is Psychotherapy outcome studies was preoccupied with race and a reliable measure of them. This was can therefore vary in their power,

Page 30 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 reliability, or validity. we know that a sessional Table 3: Possible Treatments for Depression At the very bottom of relaxation technique is the hierarchy is anec- Loopy Unproven Proven almost useless with dote or personal experi- depression. If TM’s claims ence. Even professional Crystal Healing Hypnotherapy CBT about levitation and experience is just a Subliminal Tapes Acupuncture IPT other special beyond- series of subjectively Reflexology Psychoanalysis Drug Therapies relaxation effects are perceived personal Reiki Herbalism Behaviour Therapy taken seriously, then it experiences. At the top Rebirthing Family Therapy Exercise Therapy clearly sits in the ‘loopy’ of the hierarchy are Past Lives Therapy Transcendental Meditation category. systematic reviews of Homeopathy However, if you’re a randomised controlled therapist, and you’ve trials (RCTs) as pub- spent ten years studying lished in peer-reviewed hypnotherapy or psychoanalysis or journals. Table 2 gives an example of but it does subjectively increase family therapy, or you’ve spent ten such a hierarchy. their ‘ego strength’ or similar hypo- days studying reflexology or crystal The good news is that, obscured thetical construct, is it worth the healing, are you going to switch to in the current blizzard of pop psy- bother and expense? CBT because the literature says it chology, politically-driven Another argument attempted in works? You are unfortunately more postmodern psychology, and tradi- the 1960s and 1970s, was that likely to disparage the science, or tional arbitrary speculative psychol- modifying only a person’s symptoms even the whole scientific method, in ogy, a large number of will simply result in their underly- favour of what you ‘know’ works or ‘scientist-practitioners’ have been ing core psychopathology showing ‘can see’ working. Especially because beavering away at the RCTs. And itself in some other symptomatic approaches such as CBT are really several bodies such as the Cochrane way. Unfortunately for the psycho- quite difficult. Much more difficult Collaboration, and authors such as analysts and similar theorists, this than deciding which bit of someone’s Nathan and Gorman (2002) have is a verifiable empirical claim, and foot to rub, or hypnotizing someone, undertaken ongoing meta-analyses the behaviour therapists were able or giving them a tape to listen to and reviews of the research. to check it out. The upshot of the while they’re asleep. Hence the ‘symptom substitution’ debate was fourth criterion of the loopiness Objections to Outcome Research that such substitution very defi- spectrum in Figure 1. Before describing a few of the nitely does not occur. In fact, the clearer conclusions from the psycho- opposite occurs. When bed-wetting General Recommendations therapy outcome research, two of the children, for example, are success- A sampling of indications from the most common objections to this fully ‘symptomatically’ treated using outcome research in psychotherapy whole approach need to be dealt a bed-wetting alarm bell-and-pad, or is given in Table 4. with. just a reward system Star Chart, When confronted with the seri- they subsequently ously disappointing outcomes of show greater psycho- Table 4: General Recommendations such traditional arbitrary therapies logical stability and as psychoanalysis, Gestalt therapy, growth in other behav- CBT/BT for most psychological problems, including anxiety narrative therapy, nondirective iours and areas of their and depressive ones. counselling, etc, practitioners (for lives. Not wetting the IPT for depression, and possibly eating disorders. there are very few researchers into bed understandably Modern antidepressants for depression, but a high relapse these models) have defended their does this for kids. rate. activities, often by claiming that Exercise for depression, and perhaps stress/anxiety. behaviour therapy and CBT address Depression Treatments: only overt symptoms. Their thera- An Example pies, they claim, attack the core Now, based on our two criteria, we underlying problem. However, if this can place many of the psychothera- Other Professions on the Spectrum is true, it is either undetectable or peutic options on our continuum. On a broader note, I have portrayed irrelevant. If a therapy does not Table 3 proposes where on the Psychology as at the crossroads reduce a ten-hour-a-day hand loopiness spectrum some of these between an inclusive, populist washing problem, or get people back options seem to sit, currently. Some discipline, and an exclusive, hard- to work sooner, or change a person’s of this placement is, of course, nosed, accountable, science-based score on a reliable validated depres- debatable. For example, transcen- one. This is represented on our sion measure, or prevent divorces or dental meditation ™ is in the Loopiness Spectrum in Figure 2 by bankruptcies or hospital admissions, ‘unproven’ category simply because arrows and question marks.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 31 Evidence Based Psychotherapy

Figure 2: A Spectrum of Disciplines

Creationism <—Nursing Medicine—> Geology Alternative medicine <—?Psychology?—> Dentistry General public? <—Physics Engineering <—Social work—> <—Pharmacy

Unfortunately, numerous surveys search, such as showing that a with the words as thought this can have shown the general public’s person’s immediate support circle is lead to new truths in and of itself. position to be significantly to the left the most critical factor predicting This seems to apply to concepts such on our continuum (See Figure 2). In success or failure in overcoming an as ‘multiple universes’, 7 or 9 or 11 27 years of practice I have yet to be alcohol problem. Other schools are ‘dimensions’, and ‘string theory’. But asked by a client, “Do you use more politically focused, see science a good example is the misuse of the evidence-based therapies?” This as part of the oppressive system, Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle to makes any policy to tighten the take a postmodern view of the world, extrapolate indeterminacy at the science base of applied clinical and favour narrative therapy as a atomic level to indeterminacy at the psychology into what Sir Humphrey consequence. Non-feminists and psychological level, to justify or of Yes, Minister would call a ‘coura- men struggle to get through these explain ‘free will’. This is like using geous’ decision. But I still feel the courses. the General Theory of Relativity to profession should lead rather than Pharmacists, our recent Bent explain why you look a bit like a lot follow. But Figure 2 also makes Spoon Award recipients, appear to of your relatives. claims about the current general be so commercially focused these How therapists can easily be positioning of some other disciplines days that they are happy to sell not fooled by their biased subjective on the continuum, and in which only toys, giftware, and snacks, perceptions of their successes, in the direction they appear to be shifting. (Very professional. I might sell light of spontaneous remission and As noted earlier, medicine cleaning products to my therapy placebo-type effects, has even been appears to be becoming more evi- clients from now on.) but also every explained in basic learning theory dence-based, and more technological, homeopathic preparation, bizarre terms. See HJ Eysenck, Decline and but this is at the risk of being made therapeutic gadget, herb, vitamin, Fall of the Freudian Empire pp. 90- more distant, procedural, and mineral, and weight loss program 91. mechanical by those who follow the known to man. I placed acupuncture in the simple physical sciences, and ignore By way of contrast, dentists have middle category, even thought it the ‘softer’ sciences like psychology. lobbied successfully for water supply makes claims about immeasurable Nursing, meantime, I would fluoridation, which has reduced the ‘meridians’, because some studies claim, is becoming more ‘alternative’ rate of tooth decay in the community have suggested it may actually work in some nursing schools. Rather vastly, despite the indirect effect on with some nausea and some pain than compete with doctors on their their customer base, and despite the conditions. Recently, however, turf, nursing as a profession is hysterical warnings of the poison acupuncture has been shown to have tending to go for alternative and conspiracists. a ‘super placebo’ effect. That is, both complementary treatments. The I am not a physicist, so I am very meridian acupuncture and sham research in schools of nursing is cheeky in where I have placed acupuncture (random needle place- predominantly ‘qualitative’. That is, physics. Here is my justification: ment) can have equally large placebo subjective conclusions from a series Physics has become so counter- effects. This explains the claims of interviews. This is not science — intuitive, so based on the maths relating to nausea and pain. Both it is hypothesis generation. rather than verbal concepts, that the are very responsive to placebo The trend in social work seems words (‘space’, ‘time’, ‘chance’….) effects. Obsessive compulsive disor- to be in either direction, depending have very different meanings from der and cancerous tumours are not, on which school one examines. Some their common usage meanings. and neither benefit from acupunc- teach casework social work, focus on Some physicists, insufficiently ture. Perhaps acupuncture should be practical help and advice for clients, recognizing this, have become moved back to the loopy column? and produce lovely pieces of re- philosophers, in that they now play

Page 32 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Report Taking on the TGA

Actions speak louder than words All it takes for evil to flourish is for good the world of early business comput- in fighting pseudo-medicine men to do nothing. ing. In those days, the technology Edmund Burke was primitive and systems were fragile. These were often extremely stressful times — long hours and f you are in urgent need of CPR litres of coffee were required to and I’m the only person available, I patch up rickety systems and keep I’m sad to say that you are going to them running. Those brave busi- die. Despite putting a first aid nesses that were game enough to course as a regular item on my take on this leading edge technology annual New Year ‘to do’ list (just often suffered badly. above ‘grow my own veggies’ and ‘get more exercise’), by January 2, all is There were many times I was forgotten. My entire knowledge of sure the job was impossible and medical issues has been learnt from frustration became the norm, but those weekly episodes of RPA (Royal like my fellow programmers, I kept Prince Alfred Hospital), so being soldiering on. I felt I had no choice published in the Medical Journal of — in the early hours of the morning, Australia (MJA) in January this with a computer system in trouble, year continues to be an incredibly the buck stopped with me. As the exciting and very special experience. years went by, the technology My copy of this issue of that evolved, but even so, the work prestigious medical journal lies open remained just as complex and on the table, dog-eared and coffee- difficult. stained from being passed around At an early age I had learned that friends, family and visitors who I thrived on stress, and I understood couldn’t get out through my front that disappointment, like success, door fast enough. With my back- was a part of my professional life. I ground, this was never meant to happily admit that I loved it. It was happen, but it has. I know I’d better a great training ground, instilling in put my magazine away soon, but at me a ‘never give up’ attitude, a the moment I’m still enjoying the strong work ethic and a lot of pa- compliments and accolades, the tience, attributes that are now successes and failures, as I continue deeply rooted in my personality, so to reflect back on the sequence of when I think back on my recent events that led to this amazing feat. experiences in relation to Comple- Loretta Marron, a science graduate with a After graduating in science in the mentary and Alternative Medicine business background, was Australian Skeptic of early 1970s (majoring in physics and (CAM), I’m merely applying the the Year for 2007. mathematics), while still hanging on same principles and professional www.healthinformation.com.au to my new degree, I stumbled into attitude learned so many years ago.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 33 Taking on the TGA

Despite my parents setting up to their mission statement, but the pharmacy. Sponsors can even claim and running a private hospital, and advertisements were eventually their product is scientifically proven despite their actively encouraging withdrawn. I know that success to work, by referring to some fairly me to pursue a career in medicine, I builds on success, and I now had my dodgy research (which for some have never been interested in this first win. Being a cancer survivor, a reason, when challenged, they have field of science. I know B for Band scientist and a senior gave me quite been reluctant to send me) based on aid and P for Panadol, but very little a bit of credibility. The fight that studies involving two rats and a in between. began back in 2004 after my cancer guinea pig, and with no peer reviews Even being diagnosed with breast treatment has continued to be an nor any checks for recent, more cancer in late 2003, once the initial important part of my life ever since. relevant research. The advertise- shock was over (“I’m going to die!!”) ments are eagerly approved by the and I realised that I would be Finding holes in the guidelines Complementary Healthcare Council around for many years to come, I Looking back over those four years, (CHC), no questions asked. soon became more interested in the even though there were many times workings of the Linear Accelerator, when I thought I could do no more, Taking action that for six weeks gave me my daily I’m pleased to say that the ideas and So what could I do? The TGA dose of radiotherapy, than the cancer opportunities kept on flowing in. website provided an answer when I itself. Once I started to get results, I soon found that you could do a word understood that the loophole in the search on the Listed Products Confronting the problem Therapeutic Goods Administration database which would give the I like to think I have an open mind (TGA) Guidelines for Listed Products Listing number, the product name (but not so open that my brain falls was so large that you could drive a and the name of the sponsor. It was out), so I talked to all sorts of people B-double truck full of herbal rem- exactly what I was looking for. who claimed to be health care edies through it. For seven months I sent a report professionals. The day my life Page seven of the “Guidelines for per month to the Director, Non- changed direction was when I levels and kinds of evidence to Prescription Medicine, TGA, with realised that the advice I was given support indications and claims” 1 titles stating (in big letters on the by a naturopath working in my local states: cover) that they were “Exploiting the pharmacy could have compromised The kinds of evidence which may Elderly” or “Contributing to the my treatment. I was so bewildered support claims: Suffering of Cancer Patients” and so and upset that I decided to do on, and then demanding he delist something about it. With no knowl- There are two types of evidence which these categories of ineffective edge of CAM, there was much to may be used to support claims. These products. These bulky reports learn, and learn I did. are: contained up to 20 clinical trials and As I read more, it was soon • evidence based on traditional use of expert opinions on Government obvious that the scope of misinfor- a substance or product; and endorsed remedies, and also in- mation from so-called natural cluded Listing details for up to 2,000 therapies, touted as health advice • scientific evidence. products per report. Twenty copies and aimed at the obese, cancer Even when there is considerable were sent out, so the photocopiers of patients and seniors, was over- research to show a product is not Brisbane and my local Post Office whelming. I felt that pharmacies only ineffective, but potentially did well out of me in those days. were compromising their profession- harmful, sponsors can obtain listings Most of the recipients were Profes- alism by hiring pseudo-scientifically based on traditional evidence. When sors of Medicine, but I also included trained staff (who undoubtedly Black Cohosh (which, like other other health care professionals who graduated with Harry Potter), to sell phytoestrogen products that target shared my passion for evidence- these useless products. I knew that menopausal women, is now consid- based CAM. this was wrong and should not ered useless by a recent Cochrane Dr Ken Harvey, Adjunct Senior continue, and that this was really a review 2) was linked to liver toxicity, Research Fellow, School of Public fight for science and medical re- for example, the TGA did not remove Health, La Trobe University, was search over quackery, and quackery the product, but set up a group to one of those recipients. was winning. work out new warnings on the Report after report was sent out, In those early days I started packaging 3. with no result. The breakthrough writing to the one seniors’ magazine No garden weed appears to have came when I accused the TGA of (with a circulation of 240,000) that I been missed by the sponsors who “Contributing to the Obesity Epi- subscribed to, and which contained claim that everything from dandeli- demic”. This report also included a advertising for miracle cancer cures. ons to prickly pear pills have health letter from Dr Lesley Campbell, It took quite a few letters, e-mails benefits, and we continue to see Professor of Medicine, Director of and reports, and a lot of references them line the shelves at every local Diabetes Services, St Vincent’s

Page 34 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Hospital, Garvan Institute of Medi- Mining the data we have made a difference, it’s not cal Research, UNSW, and it listed To their credit, in the absence of the over yet. 500 totally useless herbal remedies data we required, the TGA provided One of our aims is to have better that claimed weight loss indications. our team with a copy of part of their consumer information about the Dr Harvey contacted me soon database, which included all the Listing system, so that the public after this report. He wanted to put claims made by each and every understands that a Listing number together a team to publish in the sponsor. on a product does not mean that it MJA an article titled “Commercial- It was sent to me. For a computer works. We would also like to have ism, choice and consumer protection: person fighting CAM, it was a gold better labelling (‘natural does not regulation of complementary medi- mine. I soon felt like a kid locked in mean safe’) and have the guidelines 4 cines in Australia” to expose the a candy store. I was in my element. changed so that science takes pre- TGA and the over two million dollars That first month, I sat hunched cedence over tradition. We would it receives every year (which in- over my computer every day, and also like a system that would enable cludes fees for new Listings and went through every claim for every products that have proven efficacy to ongoing annual fees) for these Listed Product from 1996 to 2006. At display a green tick (similar to the ineffective products. the end of the month, I was a much Heart Foundation’s red tick). The team would consist of himself wiser person, in that I’d started to However, companies like Symbion as lead author, David B Newgreen, a recognise the more commonly used Health (which owns Bio-Organics, pharmacist, and two consumer rep- remedies, so I knew I had to go Cenovis, Nature’s Own, Natural resentatives, Viola Korczak from through the process again. I was Nutrition, Golden Glow and Vitelli, CHOICE, and myself. aware of how important it was to be as well as the trading names Terry as accurate as I could be, and as the White Pharmacies, Health Sense Trouble with terms statistics unfolded, I could see that Pharmacies, CHEMMART, The As the article was to use weight-loss an important part of the success of Medicine Shoppe, Pharmacy Choice products as an example, the TGA our article was likely to rely on the and Pharmacy Plus), Blackmores was asked to provide a list of these data I was compiling. I couldn’t and Cat Media continue to try to products. They couldn’t do it. The afford to make any mistakes, so that influence politicians, and while the electronic listing system allows extra effort helped me to sleep at TGA puts money before the wellbe- sponsors to use free-form text for night. I soon found that there were ing of Australians, the fight contin- their claims, and rather than tick over 1000 products claiming weight ues. the box that says “aids in weight loss, and for the past 10 years there References: loss”, they would use product names continued to be an annual exponen- that included words like trim, slim tial growth in new Listings for these 1. Guidelines for levels and kinds of and fat and terms like thermogenic, totally useless products. evidence to support indications and body-sculpting, detox, carb burning, claims www.tga.gov.au/docs/pdf/ calorie burning, weight accelerators, Getting published tgaccevi.pdf sugar balancing — and even weirder In February 2007, Dr Harvey 2. Phytoestrogens for vasomotor claims such as “strengthen kidney submitted the article to the MJA. menopausal symptoms organ meridian energy to supply We knew we had a loaded cannon www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ healthy liver Qi”. The products are with what we had found. Now we sat ab001395.html pads, patches, pills, sprays, slim- back, waited and worried. ming teas and coffees, and include 3. Black Cohosh and liver toxicity — On January 7 2008, we were an update homeopathic remedies. published. These products are meant to During that month there were a www.tga.health.gov.au/adr/aadrb/ perform a range of miracles, includ- lot of press, radio and television aadr0706.pdf ing sucking the toxins out of our interviews and meetings with the 4. Commercialism, choice and bodies as we sleep (no toxins are TGA and Labor MPs. However, consumer protection: regulation of ever identified), stripping the fat off despite the good intentions of complementary medicines in Aus- our bodies (no exercise or diet Senator Jan McLucas (responsible tralia. required), or even making us feel we for the TGA), the law remains www.mja.com.au/public/issues/ have eaten a four-course meal. unchanged, so even though we know 188_01_070108/har10522_fm.html

Convention 2008, Adelaide

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 35 Medicine The Placebo Effect

Explicating the seemingly he term placebo is used widely, comparability. This process some- inexplicable Tbut my discussions with some times fails because of poor sampling, Skeptics have suggested a poor fraud, and in at least 5% of cases the understanding of what is actually normal vagaries of statistics. meant by the term. I recall a ques- A list of ‘causes’ of the placebo tion at the Sydney conference in effect includes: 2004, suggesting that the placebo Natural (background) occurrence of was a real therapeutic entity rather symptoms; than a chimera. Group sympathy effect; In previous articles I have empha- Recurrent illness; sised the difference between a therapy (an improvement in an Chronic illness; altered physiological state proven by Recall biases; a quasi-experiment with appropriate The ‘natural’ progress of a disease state; statistical analysis not to be errone- Fluctuation of symptoms; ous at less than a 5% chance) and a remedy (an intervention which Progressive improvement; makes people feel better). Medicine Variable outcomes because of differing has a long tradition of applying stages of diagnosis; remedies which have gradually been Variable outcomes because of differing eliminated from medicine as a physiological states at the time of diag- discipline through the application of nosis; scientific method; regrettably venal- Intervention effects; ity, ignorance and confused ethics have ensured the persistence of Observation effect (Hawthorn effect); many remedies applied by medical Social recognition of illness; practitioners (acupuncture, massage, Alleviation of anxiety; Freudian psychotherapy, etc.). Ritual and magic; The placebo effect is a mix of changes in symptoms, and occasion- Belief and Faith; ally signs, that occurs when an Statistical effects; intervention has either demonstrably Regression to the mean; no effect, or no scientifically rational Sampling effects; reason for having an effect. Testing interventions in humans is difficult Sampling size; because ethics prevents true experi- Sampling bias. mentation — we have to rely upon quasi-experimental designs, which Group sympathy effects David Brookman, when not presiding over the rely on random sampling and com- This phenomenon is best illustrated Hunter Skeptics with a rod of iron, is a kindly parison of experiment and control by symptoms developed in some and caring medical practitioner. groups before intervention, to ensure people when they are exposed to an

Page 36 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 odour, or similar effect which they The reporting of symptoms is also Fluctuation in symptom severity highly dependent on culture. Indi- believe is toxic. A recent example in The intensity of symptoms of chronic vidual mental state significantly Australia is the Virgin airport illness varies over time. This may be intrudes on the presence and inten- terminal poison gas scare in Mel- physiological, such as with increased sity of symptoms. The best example bourne in 2005. If, in the clinical joint stiffness, or increased pain of this is the effect of anxiety on gut trial, there is any way that groups with local oedema at sites of inflam- smooth muscle associated pain may identify which group they mation accumulating with recum- (colic); anxiety increases the level of belong to (control or intervention) bency, or it may be due to diversion noradrenalin secreted from the this effect may occur. of introspection due to normal social adrenals. Noradrenalin stimulates I am having the white pills, but they activities (note increased distress contraction of gut smooth muscle gave me a terrible headache. from pain at night in a dark room. and thereby increases pain (but Symptom intensity may be That’s funny, I just started on those pills relaxes airway smooth muscle). reduced by increasing sensory and I am getting a headache too… Thus the environment in which stimulation. Thus, exposing people people are interviewed, the way in to loud noise was used by dentists Effects of recurrent Illness. which they are interviewed, and for extractions before anaesthesia, even the local news may impinge on There are many minor maladies grading symptoms in with back- the reporting of symptoms and their where recurrence is the norm. ground diversion (music etc). Tension headache, migraine, pain severity. with osteo-arthritis, etc. In any Many symptoms, particularly Progressive improvement pain, are subject to a learning effect population there will be a certain An illness has three possible paths, number of people with the symptoms (tolerance) — thus a person who has recovery, fluctuation, deterioration. at any one time, and in any random experienced a lot of pain generally is The classic deterioration is seen sample of people there will be some more tolerant of minor painful with overwhelming infection, and who currently have the symptoms, or interventions than will be someone also with untreatable malignancy; who recall having had them recently. with little pain experience, their fluctuation is dealt with above. Treatment of such conditions, if level of anxiety about the interven- Short term illness is generally successful, will reduce the frequency tion will also differ. infectious, traumatic or psychoso- (the number of events experienced in cial. There will be a definable time of a given period of time by affected Recall biases onset, described as the clinical individuals) and the prevalence (the Recall bias is the tendency to better course. If the entity is new, progress number of people with the symptoms recall events that are highly emo- will be partly predictable from at a given time). A data collection tionally linked, either positively or physiology — mostly, people get which reports symptom reduction in negatively. Those of you who have better. Getting better means a loss of a given group of people will not suffered motion sickness will be well symptoms and signs. Any interven- necessarily reflect a therapeutic aware of the ability to recall past tion can therefore be expected to effect unless the time period of episodes of seasickness and the fear historically show an improvement, if symptom sampling is rigidly defined, of travelling over waves that results. the illness under examination is self- such as by using a symptom diary. I can recall gagging on a particular limited. synthetic apricot flavoured yoghurt For a population of 100 000, daily dis- Effects of chronic Illness which recalled the chewable antibi- ease prevalence 2%, duration 10 days (ie, otics I was recurrently given as a The definition of chronicity in illness on any day 2000 people will have the varies with the particular illness, and child (mostly uselessly) for viral disease and an average duration of 10 with varying medical technology. infections. days means that 95% of people have Thus, cutaneous fungal infections in When subjects are asked to recall symptoms for 10 days) rich white society is not regarded as if they have ‘had a headache in the chronic, but is in poor non-white last two weeks’ they are more likely From this it can be seen that for communities where access to simple to remember if they infrequently any sample of people with a self- topical antifungals is not available. have headaches, or if the headache limited illness symptom prevalence will fall to background prevalence Chronic illness is one which can be was particularly unpleasant, or within the average duration irre- generally regarded as not being produced an adverse social effect. spective of any intervention. ‘cured’, but which is ameliorated When conducting cross sectional symptomatically or physiologically. prevalence studies (like the ABS Variable outcomes as a result of The intensity of symptoms associated health survey) this effect does not different stages diagnosis with chronic illness does not correlate matter, but it is highly important if with the intensity of physiological it is used when using a sensorily In the simple example above, 100% disturbance and is subject to learning pleasant ritual for the treatment recovery from the self limited illness symptom tolerance. group, but not the control group. was assumed, and equality of

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 37 The Placebo Effect progression was also assumed. disease (an externally applied label may be worrying, simple reassur- Reality is that for any sample of based on predefined criteria, using ance may reduce that anxiety. The people with an illness there will be a symptoms, signs and investigations). better trained and more experienced notional range of severity. People The choice of terminology in this the health practitioner, the more with more severe illness will take title is quite intentional. likely they are to collect more longer to recover, and are more It is all very well feeling too sick evidence pertaining to symptoms (in likely to present earlier in their to undertake your normal social the form of history, physical signs, illness due to more symptoms, or responsibilities, but without being and investigations) and then investi- greater intensity of their symptoms. labelled as such by a socially recog- gate further if there is a possible This means that the model above nised ‘expert’ you are simply a important illness to exclude. The will follow a slightly different curve shirker feigning illness. This par- less trained and less skilled are but still be asymptotic to the preva- ticularly applies to problems where more likely to act on one symptom, lence. there is no physical sign observable to demand the pathognomonic test, and to reassure inappropriately. Variable outcomes due to different to the untrained eye and where social attitude has been biased by Generally, the lower is the under- physiological states at time of diagnosis venality. The best example I can standing of causes of symptoms and This is similar to the point given think of for this is back pain. Back physiology, the greater is the anxi- above. It reflects the necessity for pain is a complex set of problems ety, and the greater the acceptance comparison of age, other disease, etc, ranging from simple muscle strain, of anatomically and physiologically that would impair the ability to to major nerve and muscle disorders. impossible explanations. recover from any illness, even when It is a disorder in which there is truly random sampling is used. considerable secondary gain which Ritual and magic may be financial. Medicine was associated with Observation effect Which of the following would religion before the scientific era, as This is also known as intervention currently gain the most social there were no effective nonsurgical bias. It appears in the management recognition? treatments. Alleviation of symptoms literature as the Hawthorn effect. A a. I bent over the other day and got this required suggestibility. The involve- US electric company was experi- terrible pain in my back. I went to see ment of ritual is important in many menting with how the level of the chiropractor who had a feel of my alternatives to medicine (acupunc- lighting affected productivity. They back and said it was out and he needed ture, reflexology, therapeutic touch, selected a sample of workers and to put it back in. He rubbed it a bit and chromotherapy, aromatherapy, measured their productivity (the twisted my back around until it clicked. music therapy etc) — all rely upon group knew they were being as- It felt OK for half an hour or so, and he suggestibility, which is linked to sessed). They then progressively said to go back every couple of days susceptibility to hypnosis and lowered the lighting and found, until it gets better. It only cost $60.00. possibly religious training. Some paradoxically, a rise in productivity He said there was a severe problem and activities in science-based medical until the level of lighting was so low if I did not get treated I would end up care also have a ritual effect — X- that the workers could not see to in a wheelchair. ray imaging is a prime example. write. In this circumstance the Ritual involved in providing and workers were concerned that man- b. I bent over the other day and got this intervention, or in simply assessing agement was watching them and terrible pain in my back. I went to see responses, may impinge on the sense might terminate their employment. the doctor who asked me a whole lot of of wellbeing expressed by subjects In health interventions, the effect questions, tapped me on the back, and and controls. produces better compliance with fiddled with my legs and reflexes. She therapy. Thus, more frequent obser- said it was only a muscle injury and it Belief and faith would settle down in a couple of weeks vation and contact will produce a Interventions with a high degree of and that I should use hot packs when greater effect. This becomes impor- ritual present difficulties in evalua- there was spasm, maintain my normal tant in studies where ‘standard tion. The sample group may or may activity as far as possible, and only take treatment’ is used as a control. not believe in the intervention, so pain killers at night. It still hurts and Frequency of contact needs to be the finding a suitable comparison may is not much better after a week. It cost same with both intervention and be difficult but not impossible. A me $20 and she did not even send me control groups. suitable placebo for acupuncture has for any tests. been developed (it produces the Social recognition of illness same changes on FMRI) — but has Alleviation of anxiety I have, in past articles, emphasised not been widely used. It certainly the difference between an illness (a For those untrained in medicine (or was not used in the ‘studies’ of self perceived perturbation in even in the speciality where the acupuncture, published over the physiological homeostasis) and problem exists), a set of symptoms past two years in the BMJ , which

Page 38 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 are widely used for marketing ticular reading (measurement bias), the affected populations. It may be acupuncture by the medical profes- and/or there was some other random quite subtle. A good example would sion. No studies have published event in play. The frequency distri- be to sample the Masai people, comparisons of subjects belief in bution will, however, follow the cut- measure their height, and claim that acupuncture as a treatment and off tail of the random population all dark skinned Africans were of the most subjects have been recruited by curve. same height distribution. practitioners offering the treatment. Let us now resample all this same There have been many serious This is a form of sample selection group, with no intervention. What studies which have succumbed to bias, but it is dependent upon belief will happen to the average choles- this effect. A few years ago an in the treatment. If you have a terol for the group? What sort of Australian study claimed circumci- sample of people who believe in frequency curve will it follow? sion protected against gonorrhoea acupuncture, divided into control The cholesterol readings will now and syphilis. The sample was based and intervention groups, one group follow a near normal distribution on people attending the Sexually receives acupuncture, the other does when graphed using the same Transmitted diseases clinic in a not receive acupuncture, there will subgroup. The average cholesterol capital city, and used the reported clearly be a difference perceived by for the subgroup will remain higher population incidence of disease as a the patients — one having their than the whole population average, measure. Not only is the population faith satisfied, the other denied. but the average for the subgroup incidence highly under-reported, but Any valid study of an intervention will be lower than it was when the population attending the STD requires random sampling, compari- previously measured. This is purely clinic was skewed with a greater son of control and intervention a statistical artefact caused by proportion of international sailors groups, and a control that is indis- resampling and retesting — yet it and other visitors. tinguishable from the intervention. has appeared in medical literature The argument ran as follows: The absence of these negates any as indicative of a therapeutic ben- There are X people attending the STD structural correctness in the trial. efit. clinic per annum; Regression to the mean Sampling size Y/X of these are circumcised; This is a statistical phenomenon I am sure the Skeptical mathemati- There are P/T cases of STD reported per that complicates risk factor inter- cians reading this will be hopeful of annum in the population; vention studies. Take a random a long dissertation on type 1 and The population prevalence of circumci- sample of people and measure a type 2 errors, but I won’t, for the sion is R/T (where T is the total popula- physiological attribute that has been sake of the long suffering reader tion). linked to risk of disease (cholesterol who has ploughed this far. Let us is a good example). There will be a simply assert that the smaller the Now the expected proportion of range of values for cholesterol sample size taken from any popula- people attending the STD clinic who within that sample, there will be a tion, the less is the chance that the were circumcised is R * X/ T. Y/X is mean, and the frequency of choles- measures applied to that sample will greater than this, therefore fewer terol measured will follow a bell type approximate the population average. people who are circumcised are curve around that mean. Now, by This means that to rely upon a contracting STD). That X was not a definition, the risk is posed by an small therapeutic effect, a large subset of T escaped the authors. elevated cholesterol, and for the sample must be drawn randomly For those readers who have purpose of this example we will say from the population under test. This struggled with this article I sympa- more than one standard deviation is why many thousands of people thise. Add to this the burden of from the mean is associated with with coronary occlusion had to be keeping abreast of the technical increased risk. randomly allocated to placebo and advances in medicine and you can From our sample of 10 000 people, thrombolytic, in the large well understand why so few medical take a subgroup of 16% with a multicentre trials that revolution- practitioners are rigorous in apply- cholesterol above one standard ised the management of myocardial ing evidence based practice and are deviation from the mean. Within infarction. Meta analysis tries to unduly influenced by the marketing this group there will be some who correct for this by amalgamating of pharmaceuticals and placebos in have a physiological reason for the studies of similar design and to our society. elevation of the cholesterol (lipopro- obviate the need for huge So, fellow Skeptics, we have the tein lipase deficiency, insulin resist- multicentre trials. tools for rational delivery of health ance), and others who are there by care. What is lacking is the capacity chance — on the particular day their Sampling bias to apply them, and this will require a fundamental change in education cholesterol was higher than usual — This is a common bias in clinical which gives people the capacity to and/or the machine reading the studies, introduced because of the analyse, rather then learn by rote. cholesterol read high for that par- difficulty of randomly sampling from

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 39 Samson the Role Model?

Just the thing for the young and he story of Samson and Delilah One day, Samson’s enemies discovered Thas been told to millions of his secret and they cut his hair. impressionable Sunday School children. Samson has Samson’s strength left and his enemies great strength that has been given captured him. But Samson prayed that to him by the Lord, so it is presumed God would let him use his strength one he is one of the good guys. last time. God answered his prayer and Based, I suppose, on the same Samson performed one of the greatest logic, a US-based toy company, feats of strength ever! (Judges 13-16) One2believe, has produced a series Children can make this story come to of action dolls based on biblical life with one of our amazing Spirit characters. One of them is Samson. Warriors, Samson! This action figure The idea is to encourage children to comes with everything you need to help take an interest in the Bible and, your child learn about this fascinating presumably, to give them some role Tale of Glory. Item includes a colorful models. The following is what “Samson, The Strongest Man to Ever appears in the One2believe website Live” mini-storybook and a 13” Samson for Samson. action-figure (with outfit). For ages 3+. Samson Spirit Warrior Story Book Included . 1 Item# MOF40106 One2Believe is a toy making $24.99 company whose CEO, David Socha, lives in California “with his Proverbs Description 31 wife”. In a BBC news item about the Samson was one of the strongest men figures we are told: who ever lived. He was used by God to David Socha, founder of One2believe, destroy his enemies and do some other the company which makes the dolls, is pretty amazing things! He caught over confident the demand is there for “God- three hundred foxes by himself; he honouring” toys which reflect Christian killed a lion with his bare-hands; he teachings and morality. 2 killed 30 men in one night without any weapons; and he even used the jawbone of a donkey to single-handedly defeat Role model one thousand men! But is Samson a suitable role model? The following is how I, a freethinker, The secret to Samson’s strength was his interpret the story of Samson from hair! God had blessed him with this Judges 13 to 16 in the Old Testa- incredible gift, but it was all based on ment. Peter Hogan, VP of the Victorian committee, and one condition: he could not cut his hair. a retired teacher, joined the Skeptics shortly Samson’s parents had been So, Samson did all that he could to unable to have any children. One after Samson destroyed the temple. protect his secret.

Page 40 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 day an Angel of the Lord came and They bribe Delilah to find out the But God gives Samson back his told them they could have a son. He secret of his strength. She asks him, strength and he pulls down the would have super human strength and he tells her he will have the columns holding up the temple. As as long as he didn’t shave his head. strength of a normal man if he is the Bible tells it: Less well known than the story of bound with seven pliant green And Samson said, Let me die with the Samson and Delilah is a revealing willow branches. She tells the Philistines. And he bowed himself with story involving Samson’s first wife. leaders, who give her the branches, all his might; and the house fell upon She is from another tribe, the Philis- and she ties him up. Her friends try the lords, and upon all the people that tines, so there is animosity between to capture Samson but he easily gets were therein. So the dead which he slew Samson and the rest of her tribe. away. at his death were more than they which Samson has killed a lion and a Twice more Delilah asks him for he slew in his life. 5 his secret, and he deceives her. She swarm of bees have made a hive in And this murderous, dumb thug, tells the Philistines and helps them the skull. Samson poses a riddle aided by an uncaring God, is being try to capture him, but he escapes. based on this event to 30 of his wife’s promoted as a role model for chil- Delilah implores Samson. “I am friends and bets them they can’t dren! solve it. His riddle is “Out of the your wife. If you loved me you would eater came forth meat, and out of not lie to me. Tell me the secret of Indoctrination the strong came forth sweetness”. 3 your strength.” Of course, as a person who doesn’t If Samson loses the bet he has to Now you would think that any see any good reason to believe in a supply all his wife’s friends with bloke with a few brain cells would God, and who does not accept that clothes. His wife wheedles the realise that his wife was helping her the Bible is divinely inspired and answer out of Samson and tells her friends to do him in, and would say literally true, I’m considered by friends. They claim to have won the something like “Hang on my dear, if Christian fundamentalists to be bet so Samson has to pay up. Now I you were a loving wife you wouldn’t without any morality, a claim I find guess we have to give him credit for be helping your friends attack me.” highly offensive. But if they can hold honouring his bet but his method is But Samson is apparently pretty up Samson as a role model to chil- hardly a good example for children. dumb, so he tells her the real secret dren, I think they are the ones who This is how the Bible tells it: to controlling his strength — cut off have a twisted sense of morality. And the Spirit of the LORD came upon his hair. And off she goes to tell her friends This is an example of the dangers him, and he went down to Ashkelon, of the religious indoctrination of and slew thirty men of them, and took who, with Delilah’s help, do just that. Having captured him the children. Education should be about their spoil, and gave change of gar- encouraging children to think and ments unto them which expounded the Philistine leaders blind Samson and put him in prison. ask questions. But when children riddle. And his anger was kindled, and question these rather silly Bible he went up to his father’s house. 4 One day Samson is taken to a temple so that the Philistines can stories they are often discouraged And there are Christians who have a bit of fun with him while they and fobbed off. want to use Samson as a role model thank their God for ridding them of Of course this is not just a failing for children! this thug. He’s pretty angry at what of Christian fundamentalists. In Judges 15 there is a weird the Philistines have done to him. He Islamic fundamentalists are far story about Samson killing a thou- wants revenge and he sees an worse. sand men for no good reason. How- opportunity. He reckons that if he ever it would take too much space to can bring down the temple he’ll feel References tell it here. It’s interesting reading. better so he asks his God to give him Bible sources: Gideon Bible and Samson and Delilah back his strength for one last effort. Now the temple is full of thou- www.Bibleresources.org (King James The story of Samson and Delilah sands of Philistines, including Version) also has a dubious moral message. women and children. So you would 1. http://store.messengersoffaith.net/ After his first wife is killed Samson think that God, who Christians say mof40106.html is smitten by Delilah and takes her is all knowing and compassionate, for his wife. But she is also from the would say something like, “Wait a 2. Faith-based toys to hit US stores, Philistines. The leaders of the minute big fellow. There are thou- by Laura Smith-Spark, BBC News, Philistines really have it in for sands of innocent people in the Washington http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/ Samson because he has killed many temple who haven’t done anything to hi/americas/6916287.stm 30/7/2007 of their people and destroyed their you. It’s a bit over the top to kill 3. Judges 14:14 crops. They want to capture him but them all. How about finding a more need to find a way of subduing his targeted way of getting revenge?” 4. Judges 14:19 great strength. (God is OK with revenge.) 5. Judges 16:30

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 41 Review The Real Deal on Dealey

Perennial conspiracy nailed for the moment Reclaiming History : The Assassi- Oswald. (Bugliosi got Oswald nation of President John F convicted!) The TV show involved Kennedy, Vincent Bugliosi, W.W. many of the witnesses who would Norton 2007, 1612pp + xlvi + CD. have testified had Oswald lived to go ISBN 978-0393045253 to trial, as well as a judge and jury from Texas. Plainly the experience incent Bugliosi’s blockbuster affected Bugliosi, since he has spent Vexamination of President two decades working his way Kennedy’s assassination is, like Dr through all of the evidence, not only Who’s Tardis, much larger inside the official work of the Warren than out. (No mean feat for a book Commission, House Committee, et four inches thick and weighing five al, but also the enormous flood of pounds!) But the 1650 printed pages secondary literature — books, are augmented by a CD containing articles, films, etc — that have two files. One has 100 pages of emerged in the four decades since references: Bugliosi’s book is hugely Kennedy’s death. (And somehow in referenced and this alone makes it that period he has found time to invaluable as a historical resource. write books on OJ Simpson, The other has almost a thousand Monicagate!) pages of endnotes: some of these What makes Bugliosi special is contain minor points, others run to partly his prosecutorial expertise: he 20 pages or more of detailed discus- writes as someone who knows how sion of key parts of the debate: the evidence is handled and what counts acoustic evidence, the medical as good evidence, and a good wit- evidence, and so on. Fortunately, ness, in court. This, combined with a both paper and electronic pages are critical attention to detail and the covered by a thorough and useful logic of real life, enables him to cut a index, so even the casual reader swathe through a good deal of should not get lost. (Though they nonsense, sorting the material and will need strong wrists!) applying sensible courtroom stand- More importantly, the book ards. And he usually does this with contains Bugliosi himself. He comes good humour, though Bugliosi’s Jerry Goodenough teaches philosophy, critical to this case as an experienced sarcasm does get rather wearing at thinking & humanities for the University of East prosecutor — his successful prosecu- times. Anglia and The Open University in England. He tion of the Manson Family murders has a philosophical interest in conspiracy was the subject of his book Helter Matters of fact theories and has been a student of the JFK Skelter — and he was hired by The book falls into two unequal assassination for so long, that he now cultivates Britain’s London Weekend TV in halves. The first is entitled Matters his own grassy knoll. 1986 to be the prosecuting counsel in of Fact — What Happened, an their mock trial of Lee Harvey

Page 42 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 attempt to lay out as clearly as conspiracy book about the JFK case. gunmen that have been named by possible the events of the weekend of (Other books, Jim Moore’s under- theorists. Kennedy’s assassination. Within this rated Conspiracy of One and Gerald In this second part of the book, half of the book are embedded two Posner’s more famous but conten- Bugliosi’s strategy bears fruit. In the other books: there is a 300-page tious Case Closed, have argued for first place, he is able to show that chapter ‘Four Days in November’, an Oswald’s guilt but at the expense of these conspiracy theories are not immensely detailed and heavily spending little time addressing the only often logically unsound but rest documented narrative of events from conspiracy theories in detail.) In this on dubious evidence that can easily Kennedy’s arrival in Dallas to section Bugliosi narrates the growth be discredited, misunderstandings, Oswald’s funeral three days later. of the conspiracy movement from the and so on. In each case we are Then there is a 275-page chapter first suspicious articles published shown how the organisation in narrating the life of Lee Harvey before the Warren Report was question really had no motive for Oswald up until the day of the released through the great growth in Kennedy’s death and gained nothing assassination. (This covers a good literature post-Watergate to Oliver by it. (Bugliosi is especially good on deal of the ground familiar to organised crime, where his profes- readers of Priscilla Macmillan sional expertise comes into its own.) Johnson’s 1978 Marina and Lee or In the second place, he is able to Norman Mailer’s 1995 Oswald’s show how such theories eventually Tale, though there is some new run aground on the great mass of material and a good deal of explica- evidence indicating Oswald’s soli- tion.) Around these two chapters is a tary guilt. We can see this if we look collection of shorter chapters exam- at two of the most recent conspirato- ining the ballistics evidence, rial theories presently doing the Abraham Zapruder’s film of the rounds. assassination, the Warren Commis- sion and other investigations into Deconspiring the conspiracies the assassination, Oswald’s posses- A recent British-made television sion of the murder weapon, his documentary entitled JFK – The movements on the day of the assas- Cuban Connection asserts that sination, and so on. Oswald alone shot Kennedy, but There is, then, a mass of material, that he was hired to do so by mem- sometimes repetitive but always bers of the Cuban intelligence closely referenced to primary services. (And the presumption is sources, to the forensic evidence and that Castro was behind this, possi- witness testimony accumulated by bly with the aid and approval of the the Warren Commission and other KGB.) Certain aged Cubans tell investigators: in other words, to the their story to the camera. But it is a evidence that would have been Stone’s movie JFK and beyond. (A story that Bugliosi has already produced had Oswald gone to trial. chapter is devoted to a small selec- dissected, exposing its many Why so much of this material? One tion of the many errors, omissions implausibilities. Would an intelli- might be tempted to think of this and distortions in Stone’s wretched gence agent really meet Oswald on a bloated mass as just some kind of film. As Bugliosi says, listing all of public street in full view of any testimony to Bugliosi’s obsession, to these would take another book!) passer-by in order to pay him a large the insistence on accumulating as Other chapters consider one by sum of money to kill the US presi- much data as possible. one the various organisations that dent? And what possible motive have been proposed as possible could Castro have for such a killing? Conspiracy delusions conspirators: the CIA, Cubans both Would the Johnson administration But this would be a mistake: pro and anti-Castro, the Mafia, the have been any better disposed Bugliosi has a strategy that requires FBI, the KGB, the Secret Service, towards Cuba? (Castro himself said this material. The sheer weight of Lyndon Johnson, American right- this to investigators of the House the evidence for Oswald’s guilt wingers and so on. In a delicious Committee in 1978, making the very accumulated in the first part of the little chapter that illustrates how sound point that he had nothing to book is brought to bear in the much disagreement there remains gain by procuring Kennedy’s death second, Delusions of Conspiracy: among conspiracy theorists after and an enormous amount, the very What Did Not Happen, where four whole decades of research, independence of Cuba, to lose.) US Bugliosi tackles the JFK conspiracy Bugliosi just lists the 44 organisa- policy towards Cuba remained the movement. He claimed at the outset tions, 214 conspirators and 82 same after Kennedy’s death as it that this would be the first anti- was before, and as it is to this day.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 43 The Real Deal

The programme-makers don’t try mess by the simple application of to read it. Even the more general at all to deal with the mass of common sense. If Oswald wasn’t the skeptic can learn much from perus- evidence for Oswald’s nature as only assassin, what possible motive ing it, from seeing critical thinking solitary assassin. They skate over could the alleged conspirators have and prosecutorial experience in the whole problem of the assassina- had to seize Zapruder’s film and action. (And the skeptic must tion itself in one line of commentary, make it look as though Oswald alone prepare to be surprised: for instance, either a bare-faced lie or an aston- did it? For how could they possibly Bugliosi mounts an interesting ishing piece of ignorance depending know on the evening of the assassi- defence of the reliability of eye- upon how charitable you feel. For nation that none of the other tens of witness testimony, the sort of testi- they assert that Oswald went back thousands of inhabitants of Dallas mony that in other cases skeptics to Dallas from his alleged meeting and environs hadn’t brought along a have been all too willing to dismiss with Cuban agents in Mexico City movie camera when they came to see or downgrade.) and immediately sought out a job the president drive by? If anyone Will the book do any good? It may overlooking the presidential motor- had, then there would be film of the not do anything to change a situation cade route in order to get on with assassination, film that contradicted where polls indicate enormous assassinating Kennedy. But the first the version that the conspirators majorities of citizens, in the US and part of Bugliosi’s book has demon- wished to be made public, in the elsewhere, believe in a conspiracy. strated beyond all reasonable doubt hands of some Texan citizen some- And, to judge by some of the reviews that Oswald obtained his job at the where, who would no doubt rapidly it has received on Amazon and other Texas School Book Depository give it to some newspaper or televi- web-sites, it won’t change the beliefs through a sequence of purely contin- sion organisation. of dedicated conspiracy-theorists, for gent events, and at a time when no In fact, there were at least eight the true believer won’t be moved, presidential motorcade had been other movie cameras and a couple of even by a mountain of evidence like planned! dozen still cameras in Dealey Plaza this. So there goes that theory. Let’s try that day. And the pictures produced Bugliosi recognises this, towards another one, the subject of at least are all consistent with Oswald as the end of the book relating a joke two recent books. (See, eg, James lone assassin. It turns out that where all the conspiracy buffs are Fetzer’s edited collection Assassina- Zapruder’s film gives far and away “lined up in front of God at the end tion Science.) Here the proposition is the best picture of events in the of time asking him ‘Tell us, God, who that the home movie of the assassi- presidential limousine as the shots really killed President Kennedy?’ nation taken by Dallas garment- were fired. But putative conspirators When God replies, ‘Listen, I’m just manufacturer Abraham Zapruder couldn’t have known that this would going to tell you one time and one was, once it was in the hands of the be the case. (In fact, it very nearly time only, and then I want you to authorities on the evening of the wasn’t: Zapruder came to work forget about this matter – Lee killing, taken to some secret labora- without his movie-camera, and was Harvey Oswald killed Kennedy and tory and doctored in order to show a chided by one of his employees to go he acted alone’, the buffs, in terrible sequence of events within the home and get it before the president angst, nudge each other nervously presidential limousine consistent arrived.) As a matter of pure logic, and say ‘This is a lot bigger than we with Oswald’s having fired all of the the conspirators could have had no thought’! shots, concealing evidence of shots reason to manipulate Zapruder’s But the rest of us have no excuse from elsewhere. (Long-time students film unless they could know for sure now this book is available. Bugliosi of the case like myself are fascinated that there were no other films of the has used skepticism and critical by this suggestion, given that for assassination in existence, or that intelligence to clean away decades of more than two decades the Zapruder every other film that was in exist- nonsense, leaving us with the real film was taken by conspiracy- ence could be obtained and manipu- story of that terrible weekend, real theorists to be one of the most solid lated too. So there goes Fetzer’s life with all its accidents, coinci- pieces of evidence against Oswald hypothesis. dences, awkwardnesses. History having fired all the shots!) reclaimed indeed. One may try to deal with this A monument of scholarship allegation by technical analysis. Are And so the book goes on, dissolving the phenomena, that the conspiracy- and demolishing one conspiratorial Editor’s Note: theorists claim to see in this short theory after another with the appli- Students of conspiracy theory are and often blurred sequence of movie- cation of logic, experience and the invited to look at the readers’ re- frames, really there? Were there enormous quantity of evidence for views of this book on the Amazon techniques available in 1963 to fake Oswald’s guilt. It is a monument of site and note the difference in tone the film in the way alleged? (Are scholarship. No serious student of and literacy between those who give there such techniques today?) But the Kennedy assassination or favourable and unfavourable re- Bugliosi sinks the whole ludicrous modern American history should fail views. It is quite instructive.

Page 44 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Review

What is Happening to Our ABC?

espite winning the most non- many six or seven year olds do you Possibly the most bizarre aspect Dsought-after award — the know who commonly use words such of this sorry spectacle was the fact Skeptics Bent Spoon for 2007, our as ‘hovering’; ‘aliens‘; ‘evil’; or even that the whole thing was presented ABC is at it again — this time with ‘white eye pupils’ to describe their and monitored by professional possibly the most nonsensical experiences? Two of the little girls academics, albeit of the documentary ever put to air. were trembling and close to tears, psychiatrical (or even theatrical) I refer to the pseudo-documentary due, I believe, to the relentless persuasion, and therefore mad by entitled Experiences, shown on questioning rather than anything definition. To expect a dispassion- Thursday Jan 3, wherein a case for else, and also, I suspect, to the ate review of available evidence by the truth of alien abduction stories paucity of their preparation. To add a psychologist or a psychiatrist (I is supposedly made. This is to say insult to injury, the footage had am vague as to the difference that the purpose of the presentation obviously been heavily edited. although I believe that the psychia- was to seek and present evidence of The essential point made in favour trist can order incarceration and is the actuality of alien abduction by of these several stories being true, therefore best avoided) is a bit like interviewing putative abductees, was that many of them shared the asking an alcoholic to do a stock- children included. Several children same experiential description; take of the liquor cabinet and from the same school where (it was drawings of ET-like heads and eyes, expecting an accurate assessment alleged) a flying saucer (cut to and thin elongated bodies although, — you know that you are going to drawings out of the Boys‘ Own by remarkable coincidence (consider- come up short. Annual circa 1958) hovered over the ing the vastness of the known uni- The fundamental flaw in this school playground, were inter- verse and the incalculably large program is, like so many others, the viewed, and were obviously dis- number of logically possible develop- assumption that anything we do not tressed by the experience. Not by the mental permutations), having a immediately understand is necessar- attempted abductions, but by the general bodily configuration similar ily the result of ’other world’ or interviewing procedure itself, to our own. Predictably, no examples ‘alien’ intervention. The assumed accompanied as it was by TV cam- of non-typical stories were presented. corollary is of course that we know eras, lights, and the presence of The usual vague and tedious everything there is to know about members of the teaching staff who descriptions of paralysis, home the world around us. clearly knew they were onto a good invasions, feelings of fear, lights, Some people may well believe thing. That the children had been tunnels, floating and looking down that they have been abducted by primed was, to me, obvious. How etc, were very much in evidence and aliens — some also believe that they were obviously (to me at least) more are Napoleon. Both groups, I believe, the outpourings of disturbed and are wrong. Further, there is nothing highly suggestible individuals in this boring catalogue of staged ranging from liars through the anecdotal nonsense, complete with mildly neurotic to full blown sepulchral voice overs uttering the psychotics rather than rational usual clichés (could we be at the descriptions of actual events. In fact, dawn of a new age?) that provides out-of -body experiences are fairly the slightest basis for believing well understood as being a (gener- otherwise. The ABC stands con- ally momentary) brain dysfunction demned for spending public money or, in the case of very young chil- on this sort of rubbish, and well dren, a result of not yet fully formed deserves censure for doing so. Peter Williams neurological connections.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 45 Review Of Goats and Quacks

Virility enhancement; not so Charlatan: America’s Most People bought snake oil, and good for randy old goats Dangerous Huckster, the Man Brinkley came of age during the Who Pursued Him, and the Age grand patent medicine era where of Flimflam, Pope Brock; Crown anyone could dream up a cure from Publishers 2008. (usually) more home-spun materials and make a fortune if the advertis- verybody knows Viagra nowa ing was good. Edays, and what it treats. Eighty Brinkley himself was a farm boy years ago, everyone knew of the who fiddled with “electric medicine” “goat gland” treatment, which not and injecting colored water into the only treated what Viagra treats, but buttocks of patients, which got him also brought a general rejuvenation jailed in South Carolina in 1913 for to men, eliminated flab, advanced practicing without a license. Once previously receding hairlines, and sprung, he headed to Chicago. He provided other miraculous cures. got his medical education from Provided cures, that is, to the Bennett Eclectic Medical College, gullible. The goat gland treatment the sort of institution the America never worked, despite its fame, and Medical Association loathed because unlike the talismans that men have it relied chiefly on herbal remedies. used for millennia to restore vigor, it In 1908 when he entered the school, had serious, sometimes lethal side AMA-approved schools gave medical effects. That little drawback did not degrees, but so did schools of chiro- impair the career of Doctor (perhaps practic, homeopathy, osteopathy, and that should be “Doctor”) John R. others, and in most states, each Brinkley, one of the most famous of branch of medicine had its own names in America in the 1930s. His licensing board, and all were lax and astonishing rise and fall story is told corrupt. Brinkley even quit his with wry good humor in Charlatan. Eclectic school before graduating, Brinkley is gone, and Brock does not but in 1915 he paid $150 for a harp on lessons we might learn from degree from the Eclectic Medical his enterprise, but it is clear that University of Kansas City, and he although we don’t do goat glands was in business. anymore, the golden age for medical A newspaper ad informed him hucksterism has never entered its that Milford, Kansas, needed a twilight. doctor, and he signed up, barely “Snake Oil” came from the 1893 making a living in the little town. Chicago World’s Fair act in which a And then a farmer named Bill Rob Hardy, who practices psychiatry in stage cowboy would strangle rattle- Stittsworth came to the clinic, Mississippi (the state, not the river), is a snakes and extract their liquids. complaining that he had no pep, and regular reviewer for the Skeptic.

Page 46 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 looking out the window, mused that initially giving tacit approval to a pal to H. L. Mencken, Sinclair he wished he had the testicles of a Nazism, and giving Sunday sermons Lewis, and Carl Sandburg, so it isn’t billy-goat, though he expressed the comparing the torments that Jesus really his fault that as the hero of thought in a more rustic fashion. suffered from the Philistines to this story, he isn’t as interesting as This was the spark that was the those he himself suffered from the Brinkley the villain. Fishbein was making of Brinkley, although the AMA. He became a populist candi- accused of merely upholding AMA’s story of that spark was unclear. date for governor of Kansas in 1930, line of promoting the activities of Brinkley said the farmer pleaded to three days after being stripped of his only AMA-approved doctors and have installed within him the medical license. He entered the race their AMA-approved techniques, but testicles of a goat, and the farmer’s late, and so could only be a write-in he genuinely cared about the people family later contended that Brinkley candidate. He would have won if the who had been hurt by Brinkley’s pleaded for the procedure and paid Kansas Supreme Court had not surgeries or mail-order scams. It the farmer to let him try it. ruled beforehand that anyone voting took a long time, more than two Stittsworth was so happy with the for him had to write his name in a decades, during which Fishbein results that other locals started specific way; writing only his last tracked Brinkley’s activities from coming in for the procedure, and name, for instance, disqualified the Kansas to Texas to Arkansas. It was Mrs Stittsworth asked to have goat ballot. He was a hugely popular only when Brinkley became irritated ovaries implanted. The citizenry of figure, sometimes even against the enough by Fishbein’s articles about Milford thought the doctor was him in the Journal of the AMA to onto something, because the little sue him for libel that Brinkley town benefited from the influx of precipitated his own downfall. patients. As Brock describes him, Brinkley was a pioneer in radio. Brinkley was a resourceful He developed the program Medical villain who, until the end, stayed Question Box. Listeners would send one step ahead of his enemies in letters, Brinkley would diagnose and made millions, owning three each case on the air and suggest yachts and countless cars. Brock treatment, invariably special gives evidence that Brinkley was Brinkley formulas available from not deluding himself, but knew pharmacists who were in on the he was making gain from de- scam and kicked a dollar back to frauding his clients. His ability him for each jar they sold. Radio at self promotion and in fooling was new at the time, and no one others is often funny, and often really knew anything about radio this is a hilarious book describ- advertising, with most of the start- better judgement of his patients. “I ing Brinkley’s folly and that of his up stations refusing to take ads. knowed he was bilking me,” said patients. Reading about the body When the ancestor of the Federal one, “but I liked him anyway.” count, however, or about the pa- Communications Commission went Transplanting testicles of a tients whose lives were ruined as the after him, Brinkley transferred his different species into humans seems money rolled into Brinkley’s ac- broadcasts to a high power transmit- insane now, but Brinkley could claim counts, is not funny. ter across the border in Mexico. thousands of cures. He was less It may be that medical con artists His influence was not just on ready to claim responsibility for nowadays aren’t doing surgery, but glands or medical treatments; he those who became ill or died from television and internet advertise- broadcast country music, and his treatments. He drove himself ment is still touting pills and gadg- because of its range, station XER into a collision with the AMA when ets for “male enhancement”, as well made country and hillbilly music he started advertising, which was as weight reduction, breast augmen- even more popular than the Grand forbidden to any AMA member (and tation, magnetic healing, and many Ole Opry broadcasts. Not only did he originally was one). more. Each cure claims scads of the broadcasts affect the musical His nemesis at the AMA was Dr satisfied customers; one of the great careers of young listeners Waylon Morris Fishbein, the editor of the lessons of Brock’s entertaining book Jennings and Chet Atkins, the Journal of the AMA, a platform from is that such attestations are com- “Original Carter Family” broadcast which he became a quack-buster, pletely meaningless. Another great on the station; the young Johnny with special concentration on ending lesson is that a sucker is born every Cash first heard his future bride Brinkley’s career. Brock describes minute, and so is a charlatan ready June Carter there. Fishbein as “a modern Mr Pickwick, to take his money. It’s not a new Brinkley became a right-wing if that gentleman had trained in lesson, or a profound one, but it is demagogue on the radio, ranting medicine and marinated in the revealed here in a duel of personali- against communism and at least borscht belt for some years.” He was ties that is compelling reading.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 47 Report Where there’s Tragedy, there’s Trade

Playing on the vulnerable ohn Edward sure knows how to Williamson. It does seem more than for profit Jexploit famous tragedies and bizarre to present a guy who appar- dead people for his own gain. A few ently talks with dead people, as part weeks after the September 11 of holiday entertainment at a theme attacks in the USA, Edward an- park, but I digress. nounced he would be doing a show The show was held at Australia where he would contact the victims. Zoo’s “Crocoseum”. These must have The show was scheduled to air been unusual performing circum- during the American ratings period. stances for John Edward. His Fortunately there was a backlash regular live show is done in theatres and the public flooded Edward’s and lasts three hours, as opposed to network with complaints, prompting the hour and half this show lasted. the show to be cancelled (sometimes, He is normally able to use theatrical even in television, good taste wins tricks to create a mood. He takes the over ratings.) audience through guided meditation, Now, just before his tour of uses mood lighting and primes the Australia, he’s gathered a ton of free audience for the cold reading section publicity by exploiting the memory of the show, so they are in just the of a famous Australian and trading right trancelike state. on the grief of Steve Irwin’s wife. He had none of these tricks at his Newspapers and television reports disposal at Australia Zoo. It was were filled with the news that John outside, boiling hot, and the sun was Edward would be appearing at in everyone’s eyes. He was on a Australia Zoo, where he would make raised stage at the far side of the contact with Steve Irwin. stadium; so far away from the I went to the show on January 5 audience, it would have been hard with Jayson Cooke, the founder of for him to have even seen the people the Griffith University Society for he was talking to. Afterwards, one of Skeptics and Free Thinkers. In the show organizers told us he was short, I went into the show very expecting a ‘train wreck’, and was skeptical, and left, not only con- very surprised it worked out at all. vinced he is a con, but less im- John Edward played the crowd pressed with his cold reading skills under these difficult performing than I was before. I had to see him circumstances surprisingly well. live to appreciate just how bad he really is. Cold (or lukewarm) reading The show was part of a promotion Edward came out and asked who called Summer Down Under which, would be interested in a reading. Peter Booth is a postgraduate student in over several weeks, will featured Not surprisingly, most people put a journalism at Griffith University other acts such as Tripod and John hand up. He then did his usual spiel

Page 48 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 of how the talking with the dead once too”! (he did not, however, use people look good on TV? — editing. process works, ie, “I may be off on the words “cold reading”, perhaps It was clear, having seen this live the name, I will not be off on the because then people could go home show, just how much he relies on initial” etc. Then came some of the and Google it). editing in his TV show. Since we worst cold reading I have ever seen. According to Edward this disbelief don’t know what has gone on behind At one point, he looked out into a lasted for a long time before finally the scenes, there are some things section of the audience and told us the psychic convinced him with that can be hard to explain watching there was a Barnabus present, “Not information she couldn’t possibly his TV show. a common name” as John helpfully have known, before then revealing to pointed out, in case anyone hadn’t him he had a special gift and he Wanting to believe realised how amazing that was. I would influence millions of people After his live show I was shocked was a little taken aback by this, with it. He then decided to inflict when we talked to a few of the until Jayson pointed out our names this psychic gift on the world. audience members and they told us were on the ticket stubs. So not they were impressed and amazed by quite a miracle. No contact what they had seen — and they He then played the numbers At the end of show, Terri Irwin came were convinced he really was psy- game, as he looked over a section of out and thanked John for coming, chic! Granted we only talked to a about 200 people and proclaimed awarding him with a special plaque. small group of people, and if we there was someone there with a She then answered the question looked further we may have found birthday that day — and there was! everyone was thinking, which was, some negative reviews, but I just He then somewhat diminished this why no contact with Steve? She couldn’t believe those people were already unimpressive trick by explained that Steve was every- describing the same show. To me it proceeding to give that person a where in the park. Then Terri was completely unconvincing and truly awful cold reading, getting a pointed out John had flown into laughable. negative response for almost every Australia for one day just to do that It became apparent that the single statement. show and solicited a round of ap- people at his live shows are there for This prompted John to give a plause for his benevolence (The a reason. They are already con- lengthy excuse for why it wasn’t Crocoseum seats 5000 people and he vinced and amazed and looking for working, an explanation that lasted nearly sold the place out at $90 a contact with relatives themselves almost as long as the reading. He ticket, so his good deed did not got (and who are willing to lay down then pulled out the “it’ll dawn on entirely unrewarded). over 100 bucks!). As Barry Williams you who I’m talking about as soon as I went into the this show ready to told me, people don’t go and see you leave” card, a technique he be on the ball, to listen as closely as John Edward because they couldn’t would use several times that day. He I could to pick up the subtle little get a ticket to the cricket! proceeded to give a few more equally linguistic tricks he would use to Since they are already convinced, shaky readings. appear amazing. As it turned out, I he can get away with anything. If He also allowed the crowd to ask didn’t have to pay too much atten- you see David Copperfield live, you him some questions about why he is tion, as just about everything he know he’s using tricks and you’re so amazing. Some of the most said got a negative response. He had looking for them. So he has to be common things you will hear psy- a long run of misses reading after good. John Edward has an audience chics say are “I’m a skeptic” and “I reading. I didn’t even have to turn to full of believers who aren’t looking think people should be skeptical hot reading as an explanation. Not for tricks. Who aren’t aware of cold because there are a lot of frauds out only could it all be explained with reading and aren’t counting the there”, but they’re not one of them! cold reading, but there was practi- number of questions he asks and John Edward followed this path cally nothing to explain. It was how many times he is wrong. They in spectacular fashion. When asked almost all completely wrong. I desperately want what he’s doing to how he found out about his psychic thought the most famous psychic in be real. So he is able to get away powers he had a beautifully devised the world would be cleverer than with murder. back-story ready to go, explaining that. Apparently not. He was worse Watching his show as a believer how, as a kid, a psychic came to his than the parodies! must be very different from watch- house and gave readings, but he So John Edward’s strong points — ing it skeptically. In retrospect, didn’t buy into any of it. He then he is a great speaker, a captivating watching this show as a believer audaciously gave a very basic storyteller and can come up with must be the ultimate theatre of the description of some cold reading funny lines. At least on that day, mind. I was complaining about how techniques, such as vague state- though he appeared to be a terrible boring the show was, but as Jayson ments, for how he thought the cold reader. pointed out to me, imagine watching psychic was doing it, the implication So why can John Edward look so being, “Hey I was sceptical myself good on TV? Well, why do a lot of Continued p 51 ...

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 49 Review Faith? It Doesn’t Add Up

Some new approaches to Irreligion: A Mathematician Ex- to reason a man out of a thing he plains Why the Arguments for God was never reasoned into”, and old questions Just Don’t Add Up, John Allen Paulos acknowledges this: “I have Paulos; Hill & Wang, 2008, New little problem with those who York. acknowledge the absence of good arguments for God, but simply or centuries, people who believe maintain a nebulous but steadfast Fin the different gods that belief in ‘something more’”. people have adopted have insisted I don’t know of any believers who that there are good logical reasons came to their belief via logical to believe in their particular gods. demonstrations. The way most Logic and science can do nothing to people get their religious beliefs is disconfirm the existence of these by being brought up with them; gods, but at the same time, if an sometimes people do change from attempt at a logical proof of a god’s one belief to another, or from belief existence is presented, then the to non-belief and vice versa, but proof can be logically examined to such changes are rare, especially see if it holds water. John Allen when compared to the incidences of Paulos has looked at the proofs and people who are raised in a belief finds them leaky. and simply keep to it (however Paulos is a mathematician who nominally) all their lives. has previously told us how a math- While plenty of believers I have ematician plays the stock market or talked to will say that faith, or how a mathematician reads the grace, or divine inspiration has newspaper. Now, in Irreligion, he made their trust in God firm, none goes for the big game. His book have told me that the trust comes shows the results of his examina- from a logical proof. It would seem tion of the question that is the first that if there were a watertight proof sentence in his book: “Are there any of God’s existence, all philosophers logical reasons to believe in God?” and logicians would have come His book is a review of the ways around to being theists by now, but that religious people have demon- it is obvious that this isn’t the case. strated to their own satisfaction Nonetheless, it seems that some (but not to his) that the existence of believers, especially those who want God can be logically derived. He has others to believe, like to dabble in written before on this sort of theme, attempts at logical proofs instead of but his book is an attempt to deal just leaving things at the ineffable Rob Hardy, who practices psychiatry in directly with the “inherent illogic to level of subjective comfort and Mississippi (the state, not the river), is a all of the arguments.” Jonathan unshakeable faith. The other thing regular reviewer for the Skeptic. Swift said, “It is useless to attempt the purported proofs examined here

Page 50 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 fail to do, which must be unsatisfac- It all seems convincing at first and even more unlikely source? tory for those who try to use them, sight, and believers who wish to use This creationist Ponzi scheme is that they cannot demonstrate the this sort of thinking as evidence for quickly leads to metaphysical applicability of any particular their beliefs would be wise not to bankruptcy.” religious system. give it a second look. Paulos ex- And so Paulos goes on, through Even the proofs that purport to plains that a big problem is #1 this brisk little book which takes on show that there is a God cannot above, which assumes too much. An one supposed proof after another: show that the God is necessarily alternative #1 is, “Either everything the Anthropic Principle, the Onto- Yahweh, Allah, Vishnu, or the has a cause, or there’s something logical Argument, Pascal’s Wager, Flying Spaghetti Monster. If you that doesn’t,” and there isn’t any and more. Each of the chapters, were to accept the existence of some way of getting around the truth of most less then ten pages long, sort of god because of a logical that. If everything has a cause, then dispatches each would-be proof. demonstration, that logical demon- God does, too, as does his cause and Paulos has used more logic and less stration can’t point you to the right so on forever; and if there is some- mathematics here; there are no church, mosque, synagogue, or thing that doesn’t have a cause, equations in the book, for instance, saloon. there is no reason that this some- although there are dips into pure Plenty of the arguments for God’s thing has to be elevated into the mathematics when discussing such existence here are well known; in supernatural, for the physical world things as probabilities for Pascal’s fact, they are classics, and have itself might be the thing that does Wager. There is a good deal of been the subject of discussion and not have a cause, and that’s an end humor and wonderfully clear refutation for centuries. They may of the chain. writing. fortify the faith of those who al- There is a closely related “proof” Nonbelievers are probably ready believe (although Paulos which is the Argument from Design: already familiar with the argu- shows that they are untrustworthy everything is so complex but beauti- ments for and against God’s exist- fortifications), but again, already fully designed in nature, it cannot ence, but some of Paulos’s believing is the key. Right off the be random or accident, so it must be counterarguments are novel and all bat is the First Cause argument, the handiwork of a creator. The are expressed in a pithy and easily presented in Paulos’s summary: demonstration against this argu- memorable form. Believers ought to 1. Everything has a cause, or perhaps ment is similar: If the beautiful enjoy puzzling out the challenges many causes. complexity had to be the work of a here, and should have a renewed designer, then that designer has to appreciation for the importance of 2. Nothing is its own cause. be even more complex. What is faith, however lacking logical 3. Causal chains can’t go on forever. explained, Paulos asks, “... by confirmation, as the foundation of 4. So there has to be a first cause. attributing the entity’s unlikely their beliefs. 5. That first cause is God, who therefore complexity to an even more complex exists.

... Tragedy from p 49 the show really believing he was mercy of charlatans and having your and opinions presented in this program talking with the dead, picturing in genuine memories of your deceased by John Edward and other third par- your mind spirits walking among relatives gone forever, replaced by ties, including statements, predictions, the crowd and the stadium, just like the made-up imaginings of a cynical documents, photos, and video footage in the movies. performance artist. come solely from the respective third This must be the kind of picture Finally, if you are unaware of it, party sources and are not the views, he was conjuring in people’s heads, here is the disclaimer that pops up opinions, and the responsibility of the and that would be one of the most for 3.3 seconds at the end of John producer and, are not meant or in- fascinating pieces of theatre there Edward’s television show: tended to be a form of advice, instruc- could be. However this theatre The producer has relied heavily on the tion, suggestion, counsel or factual comes at a massive cost; namely that contributions of John Edward and statement in any way whatsoever. you’re going down a dangerous road other third parties in the creation of this Make of that what you will. of allowing yourself to become program, which has been produced for . completely taken in and at the entertainment purposes only. Materials

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 51 Forum Circumcision: a Reply to Professor Brian Morris

Controversy continues in ho would have thought that an degrees in political science, econom- this debate Warticle about the presence or ics and law, is hardly well placed to absence of a small piece of skin would write on circumcision.” cause such a fuss? Who would have Whoa! Professor Morris appears thought it would have driven a to have decided to denigrate several Professor of Molecular Medical classes of people in one sentence. Science, Brian Morris, to attack me Let’s look at this argument in a little so vigorously (“Circumcision Facts bit of detail. He obtained informa- Trump Anti-circ Fiction” (the Skeptic, tion about my qualifications from 27:4) or, to use a sporting analogy, the Internet, as it was not published attack the man and not the ball? Who in the Skeptic. Whilst I am not sure would have thought I would ever use where on the ‘net he found it, I am a sporting analogy in any article I certain that my biography would write? This just goes to show how a have also noted that I have a Master discussion of circumcision can drive a of Science from Griffith University. man to terribly intemperate lan- However, Professor Morris seems to guage, or worse, to sporting analo- have thought that my science gies. qualifications weren’t worth men- tioning. Was this a deliberate Analysing the attack oversight? Perhaps he doesn’t like I will consider some of the points Griffith University? Professor Morris makes later in this But let’s pretend for a moment article, but firstly I would like to that I don’t have any science qualifi- analyse the way he decides to attack cations. Does that absence of a my article entitled “Circumcision science qualification mean that Myths” (27:3). It is a good lesson in graduates with qualifications in how to avoid arguing clearly. Profes- politics, economics and law are sor Morris sets the tone for his incapable of reading and under- rejoinder in his first sentence by standing research? Modern liberal calling my article “unscholarly arts degrees teach students how to poppycock”. think. Lawyers spend their time David Vernon is an award-winning freelance While I appreciate his witty pun, listening to opposing points of view writer. Based in Canberra he writes about the retreat to abuse in the first and reaching a conclusion, so I think science, parenting, health and history. In late sentence seems to indicate his desire his attack is a little specious. 2007 he released his fourth book, With Women. to attack on an emotive, rather than What about Professor Morris’ He is currently working on a book of Australian on a rational, basis. This is con- attack on public servants? Are they historical mysteries. firmed in his next sentence where he incapable of rational thought? Website: web.mac.com/david.vernon states “Vernon, a freelance writer Leaving aside stereotypes, I think Email: [email protected] and former public servant with the answer is fairly obvious. My role

Page 52 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 as a public servant was to analyse suspect, but cannot be certain, that I tivating factors for some of the anti- data and make recommendations to might have different views if I was circs, certain others are naïve ‘do- the Commonwealth Minister for the circumcised. This alerts me to the gooders’ of the ‘politically-correct’ latté Environment about what actions the fact that I may have some bias as a set, whilst certain subgroups in the gay Government should take on environ- writer. I note that Professor Morris community desire the foreskin for a mental problems. This is not un- does not make his personal physical sexual practise known as ‘docking’. skilled work. The irony in Professor status public. However, I do con- Their vigorous opposition to circumci- Morris’ attack on public servants is gratulate him in at least admitting sion helps ensure a continuous supply that he himself is a public servant. that he runs a pro-circumcision of foreskinned males in the community His salary is paid from the public website entitled “www.circinfo.net.” for this source of sexual pleasure for purse. At least he is making clear his bias. them. Thus we find there is a use for In the next sentence he states Professor Morris takes great care the foreskin! Parents take note! that I am either “gullible or a to link me with “anti-circ activists” representative of the anti-circumci- through the rest of his article. For As Professor Morris has made sion movement”. This is a fallacious example, “The anti-circs also say, as clear that I must be an “anti-circ dichotomy. Why must I be one or the Vernon parrots, that circumcision is activist” then I am also clearly a other? Or either of them for that a violation of human rights. This is felon who dabbles in prostitution. matter? Professor Morris must be rubbish.” I could ask how Professor This will come as a surprise to my aware of my long term involvement Morris, a man without any legal Mum. Perhaps I’m into foreskin in the Australian Skeptics (I was a qualifications, could say this? But I fetishism and paedophilia. This will foundation member of the Canberra won’t because this would be churl- come as a surprise to my wife and Skeptics) and the material I have ish. As Professor Morris well knows, also be somewhat surprising to me written for the Skeptic over the the legal notion of human rights is a too. Or am I a latté drinking PC do- years. So I’m not gullible. But the human construct, and just because gooder? That actually is probably second point, that if I am not gullible the law in a country says something, the closest description of me so far. then I must be an anti-circumcision doesn’t mean that it is correct. Laws “Nothing wrong with a good latté”, is activist, does not immediately follow are capable of being changed. Many my view. Or am I a closet ‘docker’? the negation of the first point. I people believe that children have a This is a new one to me. According to think any logic teacher could point right to bodily integrity, not just we the Urban Dictionary it is placing this out. He then follows this faulty apparent “anti-circ activists!” the foreskin over another man’s reasoning with what he must penis. Interesting, but not my cup of consider his clinching point, (‘clinch- Yes, Sir Humphrey latté. Professor Morris’ argument, ing’ because Professor Morris chose Reading Professor Morris’ article particularly his warning to parents, to use an exclamation mark), that reminds me so much of the wonder- smacks of homophobia. “Not surprisingly he confesses to ful bureaucratic satire Yes Minister Sir Humphrey Appleby would be being uncircumcised!” by Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay. proud of Professor Morris. But to For the record, I am neither In the episode entitled The Greasy this apparently irrational ex-public gullible nor a “representative of the Pole (how’s that title for a coinci- servant, his decision to attack me, anti-circumcision movement.” Until dence?) the Permanent Head, Sir rather than the issues, is all rather I commenced researching my article, Humphrey Appleby, explains to the pathetic. I had never visited a pro- or anti- Minister how to discredit research circumcision website in my life. My that the Government doesn’t like. The issues knowledge of circumcision up to the Sir Humphrey explains that it is a So what about the issues? Has time of writing the article had been four stage process, with stage four Professor Morris destroyed my the mild position that cutting the tip being “Discredit the Man who arguments with his apparently off a baby’s penis was wrong. Some- Produced the Report.” Professor extensively referenced research? body asked me what my views were Morris dabbles in stage four in a After scraping away the emotive and I thought that I should have a paragraph close to the end of his language it appears to me that better basis for understanding the article. As this is such a magnificent Professor Morris’ argument can be practice of circumcision than just a illustration of the Sir Humphrey summed up thus: technique, I will quote it in full: mild notion — so I did some research If a man chooses to be promiscuous, and wrote an article. Am I circum- One well-known anti-circ activist, Paul practise unsafe sex, and fail to be hygi- cised? No, I am not. I admitted this Fleiss, MD, from Los Angeles, is a felon enic in his behaviour, then circumcision in my article as I believe that one convicted of money laundering for a conveys some protection to him and his should state clearly where one’s prostitution racket. Although foreskin partner. biases might lie when writing. I fetishism and paedophilia are the mo-

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 53 Forum: Circumcision

The scientific evidence may point to this but is not a message that I will be telling my boys. For those readers who are inter- ested in following this debate fur- ther there is an anti-circumcision More Doubts website that has examined Professor Morris’ claims in depth. This can be accessed at: www.circumstitions.com/ Morris.html Professor Morris finishes his David Brookman We found insufficient evidence to sup- article with this statement: port an interventional effect of male cir- Salamander bay NSW Therefore to conclude, David Vernon’s cumcision on HIV acquisition in article is utter twaddle. Circumcision heterosexual men. The results from ex- is now mandated by the massive body read with growing alarm the isting observational studies show a of epidemiological and biological evi- Icorrespondence generated by the strong epidemiological association be- dence. In fact, the poorly researched, opinions of David Vernon on circum- tween male circumcision and preven- highly biased and nonsensical article cision, and particularly the mislead- tion of HIV, especially among high-risk by Vernon, metaphorically speaking ing comments by Brian Morris. groups. However, observational studies takes us backwards in time to the 11th Being a molecular scientist in a are inherently limited by confounding Century (the Dark Ages) and should be school of medicine does not make which is unlikely to be fully adjusted disregarded for the tripe that it is. one an expert on all things medical, for. In the light of forthcoming results and to suggest that circumcision from RCTs, the value of IPD analysis In conclusion, I’d expect a Profes- protects men against sexually of the included studies is doubtful. The sor from the University of Sydney to transmitted diseases, while there is results of these trials will need to be argue the points and not attack the an active campaign to reduce STD carefully considered before circumci- messenger. But then again, little transmission through the use of sion is implemented as a public health bits of skin seem to excite some condoms, must be regarded as intervention for prevention of sexually people. grossly irresponsible. transmitted HIV. I will complete this article with a The evidence upon which Prof couple of recent quotes from men The claims for circumcision Morris makes his claims is some- ‘protecting’ men from other STDs is who are, according to Professor what dubious. Morris, apparently as backward as I also based on erroneous studies — am. In a Cochrane review by Siegfried et meta-analyses by Van Howe provide al, the authors reached the following some more recent evidence of the Circumcision is an abuse of human conclusion: We identified no completed absence of preventive association: rights and should be outlawed until the randomised controlled trials. Three An unbiased comparison of herpes se- person is old enough to decide for them- randomised controlled trials are cur- selves.” rology between randomly selected NZ rently underway or commencing males has shown no difference in risk Mr Paul Mason, Tasmanian Commis- shortly. We found 35 observational between circumcised and uncircum- sioner for Children, ABC News, 13 Au- studies: 16 conducted in the general cised males. 2,3,4 gust 2007. population and 19 in high-risk populations. It seems unlikely that po- Readers of the Skeptic must be There were quite a lot of folk myths tential confounding factors were com- aware that writers are expressing an around the advantages of circumcision. pletely accounted for in any of the opinion, there may be a profound They’ve almost all been debunked. included studies. In particular, impor- belief in ritual male genital mutila- There are some minimal advantages in tant risk factors, such as religion and tion, or a profound rejection of the some circumstances, particularly in sexual practices, were not adequately process. This will clearly bias the some infectious diseases, but they’re accounted for in many of the included ‘evidence’ sought and presented. The overwhelmingly balanced by disadvan- studies.1 current evidence suggests that the tages in other areas. only health benefit obtained is In other words there was sample prevention of chronic balanitis. Professor E. Haydn Walters, President selection bias in all the studies, Using lists of references is a Tasmanian AMA & Head of Medicine, which prevent any life and death common obfuscatory technique in UTAS, ABC News, 9 Dec 2007. decisions being based on the publica- the medical publication world — it is tions. The authors’ conclusions: Continued p 56 ...

Page 54 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Letter from Nigeria Sharia and Human Rights in Nigeria

A distressing case of the law n October 9, 2007, a court in the Islamic theocrats and jihadists Kaduna, Northern Nigeria, being used to promote O who do not tolerate any form of heard a case brought against Shehu ‘enlightenment’ that is critical of religious beliefs Sani, a well-known human rights Islam. activist, social critic and author. Mr Educationally, the Islamic major- Sani, a practising Muslim, was sued ity states are the most backward in by a group called Concerned Sharia Nigeria. This is because the only Forum over a play, Phantom Cres- form of education most people are cent, he wrote exposing the abuses exposed to is Qur’anic recitation and and double standards by those indoctrination, making them imper- implementing Sharia law in 12 vious to critical thinking, especially states in Northern Nigeria. in matters concerning Islamic creeds Northern Nigeria is predomi- and traditions. Qur’anic indoctrina- nantly Muslim, but has a sizeable tion has imprisoned and corrupted Christian population, including the minds and conscience of the local people originally from the South, Islamic population, making them who now reside there. The court has easy targets for manipulation and ordered Mr Sani to cancel a planned exploitation by jihadists and theo- performance of the play and to stop crats. printing and distributing copies of it. Unfortunately, most Muslims in This court case has a lot of impli- Northern Nigeria are in the dark as cations for human rights, democracy to how Islam has been used to and civilization in Nigeria. It is the oppress, exploit and tyrannize their first time such a case has been lives. A few of them, who have brought against a Muslim who is realized the unjust nature of the critical of this anachronistic legal system, are too afraid to speak out system, since Sharia was imposed on against it. Hence, the task of en- Islamic majority states some years lightenment in Northern Nigeria is a ago. The case comes at a time when dangerous undertaking, because Islamic fundamentalism is on the most Muslims cannot reason outside rise in Nigeria, and around the the Qur’an and Islam. They take world, with Sharia as one of its most Islamic darkness as light, and deadly and oppressive weapons. violently oppose any form of enlight- enment outside Islam, opposed to, or Allegory of the Cave replayed critical of, Islam. Shehu Sani said he wanted to use Muslims in Northern Nigeria are the play to enlighten the local living in an Islamic cave, manned, population on how Sharia is being managed and guarded by the armies used to oppress them. Practically of Allah. And, as in Plato’s Allegory speaking, this is a tall order, which of the Cave, Shehu Sani is like one Leo Igwe, the courageous head of the Nigerian is likely get him into trouble with who was once in the cave, who went Skeptics, is a regular Skeptic correspondent.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 55 outside, saw the light, and came jihadists for human rights violation, ... Circumcision Doubts from p 54 back to enlighten his people. This oppression and exploitation in the case, brought against him by Sharia name of Allah. Sharia has become a proponents, is like a resistance weapon for Islamic inquisition in not difficult to check the references, staged against him and his enlight- Nigeria. but it does take time. For those who enment agenda, by lieutenants There are no women among the do not wish to be subjected to an guarding the cave of ignorance and Sharia court judges. Sharia does not unfenestrated balaclava I recom- fanaticism in Northern Nigeria. recognize the rights of all individu- mend The User’s Guides to the 5 als to freedom of thought, conscience Medical Literature and Evidence 6. Human rights abuses and religion. It has no place for Based Medicine Of course a quick One of the ways Islamic fundamen- equal rights of all human beings, guide is the amount of personal talists have demonstrated their regardless of religion or belief. invective, irrelevant points (such as moral backwardness, is through Sharia accords second-class status to personal circumcision status) and gross human rights violations. Islam non-Muslims. similar items lacking in relevant is inherently opposed to human Some Sharia states in Nigeria factual content used by the author. dignity and equality, gender equity have carried out amputations, and I do not know of any physiological and justice. According to Mr Sani, the have flogged convicted offenders, mechanism that would reduce the play dramatizes the human rights including Christians. Some years penetration of any infective organ- violations perpetrated against ago, international outcry saved the ism in the circumcised penile skin — women and poor people by the lives of Safiatu Hussein and Amina other than callus formation, but Hisbah— a bunch of jihadists mas- Lawal, who were sentenced to death there are no studies on difference in querading as Sharia police or enforc- by stoning for adultery. But many masturbatory activity between the ers, and funded by state money. people convicted under Sharia law,to circumcised and uncircumcised — Human rights abuses did not be stoned or undergo amputation, the advocates of the process once start with Hisbah. It has been there are still languishing in jails across also claimed a reduction of this since the introduction of Islam to Northern Nigeria. activity in the circumcised. Nigeria, particularly since the jihad of Sheikh Uthman Dan Fodio. His Landmark case References 1804 jihad sanctified militant Islam This case brought against Shehu that is spread and propagated by Sani is going to be a landmark case. human rights violations — killing, It will determine the direction 1. Male circumcision for prevention of maiming, torture, oppression of Sharia states want to go — whether heterosexual acquisition of HIV in women, children and poor people. they want to come into the 21st men N Siegfried, M Muller, Since independence, tens of Century, or remain in the Dark Age J Volmink, J Deeks, M Egger, N Low, thousands of Nigerians have lost with their moral and legal anachro- H Weiss, S Walker, P Williamson their lives to religious blood-letting. nisms. Cochrane Review 2003. In March this year, a Christian This trial is going to serve as a 2. Genital ulcerative disease and School teacher from Southern litmus test of Nigeria’s commitment sexually transmitted urethritis and Nigeria was lynched by Muslim to human rights and civilized values. circumcision: a meta-analysis. Van pupils, for allegedly desecrating the It is going to provide an opportunity Howe RS. Int J STD AIDS. 2007 Qur’an. Last month, jihadists for the Sharia states to tell the world Dec;18(12):799-809. attacked and killed at least nine if they want to embrace Enlighten- 3. Human papillomavirus and Christians and burnt several ment, a secular and open society, or circumcision: a meta-analysis. Van churches in Kano, a Sharia imple- remain in the cave of darkness, Howe RS. J Infect. 2007 menting state and an Islamic ignorance, hypocrisy, hatred, vio- May;54(5):490-6. Epub 2006 Sep 25. stronghold. lence, oppression, exploitation, and In 2000, Sharia riots across human rights abuses. 4. Herpes simplex virus type 2 status Nigeria claimed thousands of lives. In this case, it is not just Shehu at age 26 is not related to early Indeed, the blood of “unbelievers”, Sani that is on trial, the Sharia circumcision in a birth cohort. the oppression of the poor, the states are on trial. The Nigerian Dickson N, van Roode T, Paul C. exploitation of the weak and igno- constitution is on trial. The Nigerian Sex Transm Dis. 2005 Aug;32(8):517- rant, the discrimination against democracy is on trial. Nigeria’s 9. women, the persecution of sexual obligations as a state party to the 5. “The Users Guides to the medical minorities and the abuse of children, African Charter on Human and literature”, Gordon Guyatt and have watered the tree of Islam in People’s Rights are on trial. Niger- Drummond Rennie JAMA 2002. Northern Nigeria. ia’s commitment to the international 6. Evidence Based Medicine , David Today, Sharia has become a human rights conventions is on trial. Sackett et al Churchill Livingtsone potent tool in the hands of Islamic Human rights are on trial. 2000.

Page 56 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Report Weird’s the Word

Some brief notes taken at a Weird History Colloquium, expertise, he discussed in great Wollongong University, detail the many yawning improb- fascinating symposium Friday February 1, 2008. abilities required for the 1421 premise. This is that massive fleet(s) fter seeing an article in the of enormous Ming Dynasty Chinese ASydney Morning Herald about a junks, crewed by tens of thousands free symposium on ‘Weird History’ I of individuals, managed to perform booked a place, took a day off work voyages of long duration and great and the train ride down to speed to just about everywhere on Wollongong. It seems that the face of the planet. As Capt. Wollongong University has chosen to Rivers noted, these voyages all differentiate itself from the other, supposedly happened against closer to Sydney, universities by prevailing winds and currents, and being ‘Innovative’. A courageous without being noticed until the move at any time! present. Captain Rivers has met the 1421 Weird Times and Weird History author, Gavin Menzies. It seems The first presentation was by that, when faced with the discovery Professor Greg Melleuish, from the of another improbability that would School of History and Politics in the serve to prohibit the passage of his Faculty of Arts, who explained the adventurous Ming Dynasty fleets, he nature of what was meant by Weird seeks inspirational advice from no History. “Weird history flourishes less a person than the Blessed where evidence is limited and the Virgin Mary. This after being forti- scope for elaboration considerable.” fied with bacon sandwiches (and He explained that one reason for presumably washed down with this Free Symposium was that he ‘lashings of ginger ale’?). and his colleagues were interested in teaching an academically rigorous Did the Mongols Invade Russia? course in Weird History, as there is Konstantine Sheiko and Stephen so much of it about at the moment — Brown gave a presentation on this Da Vinci Code, 1421 etc, being intriguing question. This was partly promoted without much sign of any about the very significant gaps in critical evaluation. Definitely a records about Russian history, and theme of interest to all Skeptics. partly about the rise of Anatoly Fomenko. 1421:Voyages in a parallel Universe Fomenko, a Russian mathemati- Garry Dalrymple is a long time Skeptic and Captain Philip Rivers presented cian, has proposed a ‘New Chronol- science fiction fan who organises regular SF this topic. A Malaysian academic, ogy’ of world history, which radically conventions. with maritime and navigational shortens the period in which re-

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 57 corded history happened, everything Aboriginal to be a warning to ‘we Colonial Australia, David Levell of note happening since 800CE. British’, that what we too had gave a level-headed treatment of Among his more controversial achieved, could in time be lost what was the original ‘Irish Problem’ contentions is that Genghis Khan without the strict observation of in the early days of the penal settle- was probably a Russian prince who ‘values’. ment of Sydney. hired Mongol warriors to fight his The end of the line for this line of Among most convicts it was battles. Oh, and also that the first reasoning has not been permanent, commonly believed that China (and outsiders to visit the American as ‘Independent researchers’ have possibly Timor and New Guinea) continents were probably Cossacks. discovered, resurrected or reinter- and a warm welcome was but a few A veritable one man powerhouse preted evidence, as a part of con- days walk away from the Sydney of revisionist history, Fomenko finds spiracy theory, ie, only those outside settlement. The first Governors himself in tune with, and in service the academic system (A Conspiracy) made much effort, through expedi- to, the current Russian nationalist can be trusted to tell you the truth tions, to demonstrate that this was political sentiments. about stuff, their conclusions more not the case. Some expeditions valid than ‘mere’ experts. returned with reports of having met Two Hundred Years of Secret Aborigines who claimed that there Visitors Conspiracies in Australian History were indeed white men living further away. Denis Gojak, a consulting archae- This was the title of Glenn These may have been garbled ologist, spoke on Two Hundred Years Mitchell’s talk. His extensive accounts of Timor or Batavia, passed of Secret Visitors: the history of a (Internet) research (the night down Aboriginal trade routes, or just pseudo-archaeological concept. The before) uncovered heaps of con- natives cautiously agreeing to the talk was in two parts: spiracies attached to authentic leading questions put by the stran- There is real evidence — artefacts themes. These included theories gers. — that can be interpreted as being about Ned Kelly, the various disas- In spite of the persistent defection ‘proof’ of either European visits to ters of HMAS Melbourne, the and dejected return of convicts, this Australia predating Cook or the disappearance of PM Harold Holt myth might have inadvertently Dutch, or of pre-Cook era artefacts and the dismissal of the Whitlam served to keep the peace in Sydney, being carried to Australia. Government — and the connections as Irish (political) convicts might There are also a great many between them. have delayed attempts at serious natural formations (eg, ‘pyramids’ in From these he was able to show uprisings, while the phantom of Queensland), plus incorrectly dated many of the elements common to ‘escape to China’ still had currency. and/or fraudulent ‘discoveries’ that conspiracies in general and, in particular, to demonstrate that with imply that Australia’s pre-1770s Note history was crowded with a full cast remarkably little real world re- of civilized visitors (Egyptians, search, most of these conspiracies Phoenicians, et al). can be seen to be made of very Denis Gojak will be the guest speaker In the 1800s and 1900s, many flimsy construction based on false at the May 17 NSW Skeptics Dinner sought to see evidence of a ‘greater’ foundations. Meeting — see www.skeptics.com.au for further details. We hope to prevail on Australian past, or sought some sort Walking to China of morality play effect, with the fate him (and other presenters) to allow us of ‘degenerate’ and ‘soon to be In this talk Walking to China: to publish papers on their particular top- passing from History’ Australian Convict Escape Mythology in ics in the near future.

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Page 58 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Letters

Depression in animals Frequent waking (with anxiety); Then and now Fatigue, or loss of energy every day (not fatiguability but the absence of motivation for undertaking any activity);* David Brookman Paul Barclay Feelings of worthlessness, or excessive or Salamander Bay NSW inappropriate guilt nearly every day;* Cammeray NSW Diminished ability to think or concentrate ary Goldberg has suggested nearly every day; * hether as Kevin Rogers (27:4 that I am erroneous in claiming Letters) asserts, Galileo and G Recurrent thoughts of death, recurrent W that it is not possible to observe the founding members of the Royal suicidal ideation without a plan, suicide depression in animals (27:4 Letters). Society were Christians, some Attempt or a specific plan for suicide;* It is possible to observe psychomotor important points need to be made to retardation in animals that the AND qualify his opinion. venal and innocent anthropomorphi- Anhedonia or depression of mood.* Galileo was only too keenly aware cally ascribe to depression — but AND of the fate of Giordano Bruno and this has multiple causes. The symptoms cause significant impair- his own friend Paolo Sarpi. Also, he The criteria for diagnosis of ment in normal social functioning.* needed Rome’s approval to publish depression are very dependent upon AND his discoveries. So, whatever his verbal communication and as yet I inmost thoughts may have been, he am unaware of any capacity for The symptoms are not due to bereave- would have wanted to maintain a verbal communication from non- ment, drug use and do not meet the cri- façade of conventional religious primates. teria for a mixed disorder. belief. If we examine the clinical fea- (* Those items marked with an The men who founded the Royal tures of depression as codified in the asterisk are not observable in Society lived through one of the most DSM IV it becomes fairly obvious animals because animals do not that animals do not suffer from have the ability to communicate turbulent eras for religious belief. At depression; symptoms.) various times, within one life time it (Five or more of the following) Depression is a serious and fatal was necessary to subscribe to Depressed mood for most of the day; illness. It is not simply feeling sad Anglican, Puritan and Catholic belief systems. One mistimed Subjective report (sad and empty); * even though common use of the word conversion could put life at risk. At Observation made by others (crying etc);* often mislabels sadness as depression. I undertook a quick search for the very least you would be denied a (Child/ adolescent) irrational irritability;* suicide by animals — there are no career in government, the bureauc- Reduced pleasure and interest; cases which are not hearsay reports, racy, the universities, the courts and Observed (absence of laughing, smiling);* and this would seem to eliminate other professions. No wonder they kept their heads down and concen- Hypophagia with weight loss (or in 5% this disease from the veterinarian trated on their natural philosophy. polyphagia); bailiwick. However, I expect that In those days a single false step Insomnia or parasomnia daily; much of the $US20bn wasted on animals in the USA is income for the could a have proved to be a faux pas. Early morning waking with rumination;* manufacturers of antidepressants, Isaac Newton himself had to conceal Inability to go to sleep with rumination venal animal pseudotherapists and over a long life-span his disbelief in and agitation;* the like, and my railing against the the Holy Trinity, for which he could Psychomotor retardation or agitation trivialisation of this serious disease find no biblical justification, despite nearly every day; will have little effect. decades of scriptural study.

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 59 Letters

Now, having said all that, let me Continental Drift: We now foundation for the whole enterprise by come to the most important point. I know a great deal about the continu- considering how God can be shown to submit that none of these men ous movement of landmasses and exist, for unless this is established, would have been believers had they how they occur. Hardly consistent there is nothing else to consider. (My been born 300 years later. The level one would suggest with the idea of a emphasis, JFW). th of scientific knowledge in the 17 one-off creative act. Nor do Ice Ages That quote is on page 245 of the Century was so primitive by modern or mass extinctions seem to accord Penguin edition of the Selected standards, that it was still possible with a divinely planned creation. Writings of Thomas Aquinas. for intelligent men to be devout. Let The scientists mentioned in Kevin That statement seems to be me list just a few of the most obvious Rogers’ letter, had they been born logically and commonsensically true. differences between their epoch and more recently, would have been If one can’t prove that a thing, ours. unlikely to maintain their belief in anything, exists, then it is not of Astronomy: At that time there any kind of Creator-God in the face much use to pontificate on its of such evidence. was no knowledge of the extent of characteristics. So, true to his word, Furthermore, at the risk of the universe. The belief that a wise Aquinas set out to prove that God offending many, I would like to point creator had produced billions of existed with five proofs. out that the total amount of scien- galaxies, each containing billions of Richard Dawkins, in his book The tific knowledge possessed by Moses, suns all moving at unimaginable God Delusion, has called these Jesus, Paul, Buddha, Mohammed velocities over inconceivable dis- proofs vacuous, as indeed they are, etc, is woefully short of what any tances just in order to provide a because they amount to no more moderately educated high school home for mankind strikes us today than repeating that something must student has at his fingertips. This is as a trifle wasteful. Not to compli- have started it all, and calling that not to decry their important contri- cate the issue I won’t mention black something God. Then, having given butions to morality and ethics, holes and dark matter. it a name, it was a very small step in which were and are of continuing Time: The respective ages of the the history of human thought to importance. universe, the solar system and convert something into someone and planet Earth have been pretty So, to conclude, I say to Kevin give it human characteristics writ accurately established, and are Rogers that while Roger Bacon, large: potence becomes omnipotence, measured in billions of years. Copernicus, Keppler and countless consciousness becomes omniscience Humanity is a very recent arrival. others were devout believers in their and so on. Again, one is left wondering if own times, it seems unlikely that Aquinas’ basic problem was that there could have been a cogent plan they would have maintained their it is not possible to prove anything by some supernatural intelligence faith in today’s very different world. with words alone. If one finds a resulting in extravagance of this They were born too early. For 21st bench with a stopped clock on it and magnitude. Century scientists there is no such a little gear wheel lying alongside it, Evolution: The explanation of excuse. one might speculate or hypothesise natural selection by Darwin and that the wheel is the missing cause Wallace was triumphantly vindi- of the clock’s failure but, until one cated a hundred years later by the opens the clock and re-inserts the discovery of DNA and a treasure wheel to get the clock going, nothing trove of fossils. The concept of a is proved. Words are just symbols of separate special creation for homo Aquinas was right images in the mind. One can shuffle sapiens surely has become indefensi- those images; and must do it as a ble. John Warren guide to recognising links and Medicine: Microbes, bacteria and Annandale NSW formulating theories as a guide to viruses were unknown 300 years experiment, but proofs can only ago. Pain and disease were diag- come when those mental ideas are nosed (if that is the right word) as homas Aquinas was one of the being God’s punishment for sin, Tforemost philosophers of the tested through interaction with the being possessed by demons, witches’ Catholic religion. He was very real, physical, world. It has always evil spells, or whatever. Today, we wordy, as attested by a local book- been the fundamental problem of know a great deal about the prosaic shop which lists his Summa philosophy to distinguish between causes of illness. An increasing Theologiae in a paperback edition of what goes on in the non-material number of treatments and cures are 61 volumes. world of the mind and what goes on reducing the amount of suffering. At one stage in his deliberations outside it. We no longer postulate divine or he said: Aquinas wrote in the thirteenth diabolical influences for our ail- With respect to what belongs to God in century. If people, then and now, had ments. himself, let us first lay the necessary taken his admonition that it was a

Page 60 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 waste of effort to discuss something one of them. On the matter of circumcision, accuses groups he which could not be proved to exist; prayer, which Mr Rogers raised describes as “The anti-circs” of being and have recognised that his and his himself, please read the following “...more like a religious cult...”, and followers “proofs” proved nothing, conversation: one individual as being, “...a felon what endless time and paper would Christian: Yes, God is omniscient — convicted of money laundering for a have been saved? The great minds and that does include knowledge of the prostitution racket...” Does that (and there were many) would have future, else He could not predict the out- have anything to do with circumci- been more rewarded in solving the come of His actions. sion? problems we face here on Earth. He describes opponents of circum- Me: Therefore God knows today when, cision as being motivated by “... for example, the drought will end? foreskin fetishism and paedo- Christian: Of course! philia...” and somehow belonging to “... subgroups in the gay commu- Me: So, when John Howard and other nity...” (Really? A community? wise folk tell us to pray for rain — for Epiphany Where? And do they have a commu- the drought to end — it is a waste of nity hall and road signs? “You are time because the end is already set. If now leaving Gayville, population it weren’t, and we prayed and God both- 1,000”). Brian Hewson ered to respond by ending the drought His actual arguments, given Wauchope NSW earlier, wouldn’t it mean He was wrong earlier in the article, appear to be today and hence not omniscient? well considered, backed by accessible kay, I’m convinced. After more Please, Messrs Rogers and data and are well argued. But in my Othan 50 years of atheism and Moriarty (I think we can forget Mr own opinion, his descent into irrel- considerable interest in such matters, Brash, if his logic allows him to lose evant, untestable vitriol and point- and despite all evidence to the con- a chess game in 11 moves. But, less name calling only leads me to trary, Kevin Rogers and Bill Moriarty maybe his vicar?), correct my rea- mistrust all that has preceded it. (27:4 Letters) have convinced me. As soning preferably without reference Seriously. As an interested and the delightful Dr Krissy Wilson to the Bible — your own withering gifted amateur, I can boast owner- explains so well — I have the same logic will be enough. ship of one penis. Just the one, so I limitless capacity for self-deception as can’t make any valid comparative they have. contribution to the discussion for So, there is a god — and maybe and against circumcision, but the it’s the Christian one. Now, I just ownership does not prevent me from need to be convinced that the god is recognising an article where spuri- not cruel, (witness any part of the Keep to the issues ous argument is thrown around in animal hierarchy, tsunamis and place of considered opinion and/or earthquakes, etc) lazy (think of the factual data. Maybe, if I had a things that you or I, with omnipo- Glenn M Brady second penis (one in the alternate tence, could have fixed in the last Leopold VIC state to my own), I could test some of few thousand years), stupid (even I the hypotheses. Though, according could design a better weather to the old slur, “He must have two system or at least fix it as and when aving just read the Forum and penises, you can’t be that crazy it goes chaotic!) and vain (2000 years HLetters pages in the Summer playing with just one”. of ‘Songs of Praise’ — really!). 2007 (27:4) issue of the Skeptic, I All of the other letter writers in Mr Moriarty assures us (though fear I may have to apply for a spot in the Forum managed to avoid the he doesn’t say what the evidence is) an Australian version of the BBC TV faults I find in Dr Morris’s article, that the big G takes day-to-day show Grumpy Old Men. and argue their own views with interest. Pity that it is so callous and It may be the weather (40C decorum. indifferent. Mr Rogers assures us today), my approaching half century John Gibbs, in a letter under the that at least it’s not arbitrary (so (I won’t raise my bat to the crowd headline “Climate Debate”, also that takes care of miracles!). and TV cameras) or the position of resorts to the old and very tired Anyway such matters are far too the stars in Uranus (or however that argument that a theory to which he complex for a mere mortal — I’ll just stuff works). More likely is that I’ve does not subscribe “...is not science believe it. However, it would be just about had it up to my eyeballs but religion, a dogma unsupported appreciated if Mr Rogers can set us with the level of debate displayed in by evidence...”. straight on a few simple logical those pages this issue. He finishes his letter with “And problems. If our glorious Editor is Brian Morris, in criticism of finally the last refuge — a tug at the kind to me we might have room for David Vernon’s article opposing heartstrings...”* but then goes on to

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 61 Letters use the very same language to trump conclude this, just as we all do all More induction the miscreant heartstrings tugger. the time in our daily lives, and in And finally (are you still there? science as well. We couldn’t survive Almost finished. And the tempera- without it. ture has decreased by a few degrees, I agree with Dan that the axiom Matthew Birmingham so I promise this is my last and of consistency (the assumption that North Nowra NSW smallest gripe). the future will resemble the past) is If a letter writer is going to use a unnecessary for science. Science is ust a few comments on Dan cliché, a homily, simile or such, can quite capable of dealing with sce- Carmody’s article “Can a Scien- we please at least get it right. The J narios where the future is markedly tist Rely on Induction?” in the last saying is not, “The proof is in the different with the past. However, issue (27:4). First let me state that pudding”, it is, “The proof of the there is a different “axiom of consist- I’m not entirely certain that pudding is in the eating”, ie, one ency” that is required: consistency of Carmody wasn’t writing tongue-in- tests how good the pudding is by the principles of reasoning in the cheek, but as he gave no clear eating it. presence of uncertainty. When this is indication that this was the case, I In summary, could we please assumed, a theory of logic can be will assume he was serious. (If I’m leave out the ad-hominem argu- made which essentially tells us what mistaken, then — ‘Ha Ha, you got ments, the untestable assertions and we already know — that inductive me’.) schoolboy debating techniques, the reasoning is valid to some extent, Carmody , in arguing his case garbled homilies and poor puns and but not guaranteed to be correct. On that knowledge of the past does not jokes... (Oh dear, I’ve just shot this point, I highly recommend the provide a rational basis for predict- myself in the foot) and please raise groundbreaking book by physicist ing the future, states “we simply do the level of debate above that which Ed Jaynes (Probability Theory: The not know what the speed of light will might be found in AiG? (I think I Logic of Science). be tomorrow until we measure it may be hoist by my own petard). Karl Popper’s well-known ideas tomorrow ... we cannot have knowl- * Last refuge of who or what? If I may about falsification are important but edge of the future”. ask. not complete. If the only status a His claim that we cannot have theory can have is “falsified” or “not knowledge of the future can only be falsified”, what is the point of based on observation that, in the knowing that a theory is not falsi- past, we have not been able to have fied? Can we rely on its predictions knowledge of the future, and since Induction or not? What about the infinity of he is arguing that past observation theories that make different predic- can not be rationally used to predict tions but are also not falsified? the future, the claim cannot be used Brendon James Brewer Obviously, there is a continuum of consistently in support of his case. plausibility between “certainly false” (Of course, in Carmody’s defence, it Guildford NSW and “certainly true”, and that is could be that consistency was only where the vast majority of reasoning valid last week.) have enjoyed the back and forth takes place. Deduction is rarely Towards the end of his article, he Ion inductive reasoning that has possible except in mathematics. acts as though he is going to give us been taking place in the Skeptic. I will leave the last word to the a demonstration of how science can Although I don’t think Christianity physicist, statistician and philoso- proceed without induction, but I has anything useful to add to any pher Harold Jeffreys, whom Jaynes must have blinked because I missed discussion of induction, I also think quotes: it. Dan Carmody’s article, “Can a Any schoolchild knows the impos- A common argument for induction is Scientist Rely on Induction?” (27:4 p. sibility of ‘proving’ the validity of that induction has always worked in 40) is somewhat misguided. induction, but it is one hell of a the past and therefore may be expected Presumably, when Dan was dubious leap from that to the claim to hold in the future. It has been ob- writing his article, he wasn’t too that induction is ‘based wholly on jected that this is itself an inductive worried about the possibility of the faith’. argument and cannot be used in sup- speed of light changing (and there- To top off the silliness, Carmody port of induction. What is hardly ever fore the strength of any inductors in then states, “No true scientist — mentioned is that induction has often his computer circuits). I assume he Christian or otherwise — can also didn’t take seriously the possi- failed in the past and that progress in honestly generalise from any bility that once submitted, his science is very largely the consequence number of particular instances to a article would magically turn into one of direct attention to instances where prediction or rule. The very nature about zucchinis. Of course, he the inductive method has led to incor- of inductive reasoning turns their validly used inductive reasoning to rect predictions.

Page 62 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 bets about the future into sheer dential college in Rome 46 years ago. me to the title of “Oboziobodo”, and guesswork”. We became close friends, and have my wife to the title of “Lolo”. While If that were so, then the number kept in touch, spasmodically for grateful, we declined: but continue of ‘true’ scientists in the world would some decades, but consistently over to get his letters, vivid reminders of fall to about zero, the last couple. This has been made the existence of a Third World, easier by emails, which he only gets which would be off the radar for to access now and then when he gets many people living in a country like to a neighbouring town. Australia. For a context for the question of Zelda Bailey, of the Qld Humanist Religious problem witchcraft described by Leo, and the Society, met him at a Humanist way the accusations have been Conference in Paris a few years ago. fuelled by Christian ministers who Charlie Carter profit from the adminstrations of exorcisms, readers might go to an Alice Springs NT article by Tracy McVeigh in the Guardian Weekly of 21/12/07: fail to see the point of the article observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/ Climate change Iby Dr Buch (“Religion Remains a 0,,2224553,oo.html Problem”, 27:4 p. 20). Perhaps Lest anyone be misled by Leo’s because I found it difficult to under- mention of Enyeribe’s Palace, I have Robert O’Connor stand. Lots of big words used in long a photo of it — simple, one floor, c. 7 Gorokan NSW complicated sentences. Not to x 4 m. Umchiweze isn’t a city, but an mention the confusing typos, eg, area of 5 km2, (northern part of ‘conversations’ where I presume Mbaise, Imo State), population c. made the error of confining ‘conversions’ was meant. 5000, four villages, dirt roads, Imyself to the ‘Web Wrangler’ word The main thrust of Dawkins and erratic power supply, no phones, count limit of 250. This made a others is ‘there is absolutely no subsistence farming, with excess detailed discussion of John Gibbs’ evidence from which to postulate the numbers having to move to the claims (27:4 p.64) difficult. existence of a god’, a position ar- towns and cities. It faces all the I should have reviewed the rived at from the perspective of issues confronting rural communi- available evidence (observed length reason and science. ties, especially in the Third World. of letter and forum submissions) and Why then use the language and His family came from there, but crafted my reply accordingly. Mea structures of ‘theology’ to discuss the with siblings living in cities and maxima culpa. issue? The only reason I can see is to overseas, they nominated him as Are humans responsible for global try and convince us that the writers Eze — sort of Mayor — when he was warming? own field is superior to reason and pensioned off after a 25 year Lec- The 4th IPCC Summary noted science. I can see no evidence for tureship at Technical College at that: god, and very little point in ‘theol- Enugu, and separated from his ogy’, it being the study of something wife. After he was appointed, as a 1. There has been a recent - the last two- that does not exist. characteristic example of his com- three centuries - dramatic increase in mitment, he compiled a 100 page greenhouse gas levels as confirmed by booklet on the history of the area, ice core measurements and other obser- and the problems the community vations over a 650,000 year period. faced. Among these, he included the 2. Temperature measurements since A small world Catholic Church which, along with 1850 suggest a recent increased warm- an illustrated recommendation of ing trend. Other satellite and ocean vasectomies as a population control temperature measurements confirm method, led one of his senior broth- this; palaeoclimatic evidence is also Richard Buchhorn ers to try and stop him taking office. discussed which suggest that the last However, after a lengthy battle he West End QLD half of the 20th century was the warm- prevailed, and was crowned a year est in at least 500 years. The last dec- ago, with pomp, ceremony and ade has been the warmest in the last t’s a small world. I recently attire befitting royalty or a Bishop. 1300. received an email from Enyeribe In appreciation for the support I I eg, www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ Onuoha, who features in the last have offered him over the years, recons.html section of Leo Igwe’s article in the I was invited to be there, with my John is not prepared to make the last issue of the Skeptic (27:4 p.38), wife, to receive a Chieftaincy from inference that human activity has recalling our first meeting at resi- his hands. This would have entitled

the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 - Page 63 Letters caused (1) which has caused (2). A www.realclimate.org/index.php/ with all the error bars and talk truly skeptical position, but alterna- archives/2007/02/fraser-institute- about probabilities. Controversies tive explanations are lacking, or fires-off-a-damp-squib/#more-398 within a field are generally openly don’t work quickly enough to explain Ignoring any potential ‘partisan discussed and resolved. the observational data (eg, bias’ from the RealClimate review- People used to more rigidly Milankovitch cycles). ers, the Fraser document makes defined areas of doubt and uncer- There appear to be no other many basic scientific errors and tainty have exploited this apparent reasonable explanations if we refers to alternate explanations rhetorical weakness and freedom of assume that greenhouse gases have (increased solar output, cosmic rays, discourse to express some interest- an effect on climate, regardless of etc) which are not substantiated by ing positions; hence the anti-evolu- where they come from. observational data (solar output/UV tion, anti-vaccination, and ... the Summary does not claim any flux) or were controversial (cosmic anti-fluoridation movements. evidence of a direct causal connection rays) at the time the report was I agree that the media increas- between carbon emissions and global prepared. ingly ‘manufactures’ and sells the warming. Cosmic ray activity hasn’t been resultant ‘controversy’ to sell papers large enough to explain recent and ad time on the radio and telly. It does, in the references to the climate in the absence of other This is a good reason to go back to chapters in the full report at the end factors. the primary literature with complex of almost every paragraph. Should www.realclimate.org/?p=42 topics, which is an easy thing to do the summary list the hundreds of www.realclimate.org/?p=359 in the era of the search engine and papers that were reviewed to pro- the Internet. Read academic papers. duce the report? Does every finding That’s it? If you’re not representing the Talk to/email salient experts. Try to in the field need to be described in prevailing orthodoxy you must be cultivate an informed opinion. detail in the summary? wrong? No, but the probability of error However, the observational The Editor warned me that I would be evidence shows that something is accused of being in the pay of Big Oil... increases with the maturity of the field and the eccentricity of your happening to climate that hasn’t No ad hominem from here. position. happened for millennia. Perhaps I John, the funding of the Fraser We disagree about the maturity of take the precautionary principle too Institute is a matter of public record. climate science, and the eccentricity closely to heart. It is a right-wing think tank. A quick of the ‘dissenters’. Google search [eg, ‘fraser institute funding’] confirms this. If you I entitled my article on greenhouse downloaded their report, you could theory — which also makes no new pre- have checked. dictions and does not admit to any criti- cal tests — ‘Not Even Science’. Tobacco funding example: Notice to Contributors bat.library.ucsf.edu/tid/lbc53a99 The IPCC emission scenarios and Exxon funding example: the predicted changes to average When sending a major piece for www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/ temperatures, rising sea levels, etc, publication, could you please include files/corporate/giving_report.pdf are not ‘new predictions’? What a recent head and shoulders of Libertarian ideology in North would you regard as a ‘new predic- yourself along with a brief (3-4 line) America seems to be based around tion’? How accurate would you like biography to illumninate the ‘author ideals of minimal regulation and them to be? What would you regard spot’ on the first page of your piece. government and that the market can as a ‘critical test’? Geoengineering? solve everything. Voluntary global emissions reduc- Deadlines Drug legalisation doesn’t bear on tions or increases? A computer model the climate issue. On the latter topic which replicates the last 12,000 Autumn issue February 1 they have a right-wing position. years of climate? Winter issue May 1 I was guilty of shooting the On the IPCC and probabilities, Spring issue August 1 messenger. Even if the Fraser John has an apparently valid gripe Summer issue November 1 Institute didn’t stand to gain by with, “Where on earth do they get discrediting climate science, that these figures from?” (or as close thereto as is humanly possi- doesn’t mean that they can’t do www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- ble) objective analyses, right? report/ar4/wg1/ar4- The Fraser Institute’s ‘Independ- uncertaintyguidancenote.pdf Another Notice: ent Summary’ appeared soon after It strikes me as an unfortunate If you write a piece which contains ‘?’ the IPCC document. An annotated choice of language to couch the or (perish the thought) ‘!’ pleasae do version with comments from work- report findings in. However, scien- NOT leave a space before the punc- ing climatologists is available here: tists generally present their data tuation mark !

Page 64 - the Skeptic, Autumn 2008 Notices National Convention Adelaide Norwood Concert Hall Saturday 11 — Sunday 12 October 2008 Theme: It Ain’t Necessarily So

Concentrating on areas that, while they may be generally accepted as being factual, may not actually be so!

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