Volume 4, Number 9 September 2010
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Volume 4, Number 9 September 2010 www.thereasoner.org ISSN 1757-0522 decided to ask Professor Ilkka Niiniluoto for an inter- Contents view. During the last forty years, Niiniluoto has pub- lished an impressive number of papers on virtually all x1 Editorial 133 fields of contemporary philosophy of science, focussing particularly on probability and inductive logic, truth and x2 Features 134 verisimilitude (also known as truthlikeness or truth ap- proximation), realism and scientific progress, and the x3 News 137 evaluation of theories within natural and social sciences. Let me briefly survey his main contributions, which ex- x4 What’s Hot in . 143 plain why he is the right person to answer my questions. Niiniluoto is presently Chancellor of the Univer- x5 Events 144 sity of Helsinki, where he teaches Theoretical Phi- x6 Courses and Programmes 147 losophy, and Chairman of the Philosophical Society of Finland. He is one of the most x7 Jobs and Studentships 148 prominent figures of the philosoph- ical school going back to Eino Kaila, Georg H. von Wright, and Jaakko Hintikka. The development x1 of this tradition has been recently analyzed in a volume, Analytic Editorial Philosophy in Finland (Rodopi, 2003), edited by Niiniluoto himself I am delighted to return as guest editor of The Rea- (together with Leila Haaparanta), soner. Exactly one year ago, I opened the September is- for which Niiniluoto wrote also the sue with an interview with Theo Kuipers from the Uni- introductory, historical chapter. Within this tradition, versity of Groningen. In our conversation, we touched the Finnish School of inductive logic takes the lion’s upon a number of topics, in particular scientific real- share. Niiniluoto’s first important contribution to the ism, progress, truth, verisimilitude, and the method of School’s research programme is Theoretical Concepts philosophy of science. Nearly the same topics are the and Hypothetico-Inductive Inference (Reidel, 1973), central ones of this month’s interview. This is due not written together with Raimo Tuomela, in which the au- only to my lack of imagination, but also to the fact that, thors use Hintikka’s inductive logic in order to defend in my view, these are some of the most important prob- critical scientific realism. A few years later, Niiniluoto lems in the philosophy of science. For this reason, I and Tuomela also edited The Logic and Epistemology 133 of Scientific Change (Acta Philosophica Fennica, 30, and Roberto Festa and Luca Tambolo for many conver- 1979), a collection of papers devoted to four very recent sations on the topics of the interview, which inspired (at that time) methodological research programmes: most of the questions below. structuralism, cognitive decision theory, verisimilitude, and the logical theory of belief change. Gustavo Cevolani Sometimes, errors do trigger progress in the history Philosophy, Bologna of ideas. It is well-known that Popper’s attempt (in Con- jectures and Refutations, 1963) to explicate the notion of verisimilitude (construed as similarity or closeness to the comprehensive truth about a target domain) was x2 technically flawed, as Pavel Tichy´ and David Miller in- Features dependently proved in 1974. This failure opened the way to the post-Popperian theories of verisimilitude, Interview with Ilkka Niiniluoto which constitute a lively research programme in formal philosophy of science. The most developed and well- Gustavo Cevolani: First of all, thank you for agreeing known theory of verisimilitude is the so-called “simi- to be this month’s interviewee. As usual, let me start larity approach”, proposed since 1974 by Pavel Tichy´ by asking you about your intellectual history. How did and Risto Hilpinen, and subsequently developed by Ni- you first get into research in logic and philosophy of iniluoto, Tuomela and Graham Oddie. About a decade science? Who had the greatest influence on your philo- later, Niiniluoto published two books: Is Science Pro- sophical career? gressive? (Reidel, 1984), a collection of essays devoted Ilkka Niiniluoto: I did my Master’s degree in math- to explicating scientific progress in terms of increasing ematics in 1968, specializing in probability theory and verisimilitude, and Truthlikeness (Reidel, 1987), a pre- Bayesian statistics with Professor sentation of his own theory of verisimilitude, as well as Gustav Elfving. At the same time, a detailed discussion of the history, importance, and ap- I had started to study philosophy plicability of this notion, and a defence against its crit- and mathematical logic with Pro- ics. Truthlikeness is often referred to as “the Bible of fessor Oiva Ketonen. The philo- verisimilitude”, since it contains virtually all you need sophical devotion and personal in- to know for seriously studying the subject (in this case, tegrity of Academician Georg Hen- you will also find useful Niiniluoto’s survey article on rik von Wright made a strong im- “Verisimilitude: The third period” in the British Journal pression on me. I had already de- for Philosophy of Science, 49, 1998). cided to move from mathematics to In his most recent book on these themes, Critical theoretical philosophy when Professor Jaakko Hintikka Scientific Realism (Oxford University Press, 1999), Ni- appointed me his research assistant in the summer of iniluoto offers a detailed and up-to-date presentation 1971. Hintikka’s distributive normal forms and his mea- of his philosophical outlook. The book subtly com- sures of inductive probability and semantic information bines a coherently fallibilist view of human knowledge provided me the basic tools for the study of theoretical with an uncompromising defence of realism in ontol- terms and inductive inference. The most inspiring and ogy, semantics, epistemology, theory construction, and valuable lessons in philosophical methodology I have methodology. Niiniluoto carefully distinguishes all the learned from Hintikka. main forms of realism, antirealism, and relativism dis- GC: You were trained in the tradition of the “Finnish cussed in the recent literature, so that Critical Scien- school” of inductive logic, pursuing the research inau- tific Realism can be read also as a high-level textbook, gurated by Eino Kaila, von Wright and Hintikka. In containing one of the most learned and complete expo- retrospective, what have been the most important con- sitions of the subject to date. The reader interested in tributions of this school? How lively is this tradition the recent debate on Niiniluoto’s philosophy of science today? should read Approaching Truth (College Publications, IN: Von Wright’s treatment of eliminative induc- 2007), a Festschrift edited by Sami Pihlstrom,¨ Panu tion was an important contribution, but it is not much Raatikainen, and Matti Sintonen, collecting a number of discussed today. The greatest achievement of the papers by leading scholars devoted to his work in three Finnish school was Hintikka’s system of inductive gen- wide areas: 1) philosophy of logic, of language, and of eralization which improved Carnap’s inductive logic mathematics; 2) induction, truthlikeness, and scientific by showing how universal statements in infinite do- progress; and 3) epistemology, culture, and religion. mains can receive non-zero probabilities. Hintikka’s Before starting the interview, I wish to thank Feder- students—including Risto Hilpinen, Raimo Tuomela, ica Russo, Jon Williamson, and Lorenzo Casini for their Juhani Pietarinen and myself—then developed and ap- invitation to open this issue and for their editorial work; plied this insight in various directions. My own work 134 on truthlikeness and its estimation is also a continua- career, in the early Seventies. At that time, anti-realism tion of this tradition. Hintikka himself downplayed the (in its instrumentalist version) was widespread and be- role of induction in his interrogative model of inquiry came very fashionable shortly after, with the publica- in the 1990s. It is a little disappointing to see that tion of The Scientific Image by Bas van Fraassen (1980). Hintikka’s achievement is often ignored by Bayesian Today, the trend may appear to be reversed. Last year, scholars who either reject inductive logic or work within the PhilPapers website organized a survey on a number the Carnapian framework. The models of induction in of central philosophical questions. Among 1800 pro- Artificial Intelligence are less sophisticated than Hin- fessionals (PhDs or faculty members), over 70% is re- tikka’s system. But I am happy that there are philoso- ported to “accept or lean toward” scientific realism (al- phers in other countries—among them Theo Kuipers though the figure falls toward 50% among those broadly and Roberto Festa—who have made progress along the specialized in philosophy of science). How do you lines of the Finnish school. judge the results of this poll and, more generally, the GC: The post-Popperian research programme on present state of the realism/anti-realism debate? truthlikeness (aka verisimilitude, or truth approxima- IN: I am glad to hear about this relative success of tion) is a distinguished approach to the central prob- scientific realism. Arthur Fine was wrong when he an- lems of contemporary philosophy of science. Your 1987 nounced the death of realism some twenty-five years book, Truthlikeness, is a milestone of this programme, ago. Of course one should remember, as I tried to show exploring both the logical definition of verisimilitude in my Critical Scientific Realism (1999), that there are and its methodological applications. However, the en- many interesting forms of realism and anti-realism. One tire programme failed, at least until now, to gain wide can reliably predict that this debate will always be a vi- acceptance and visibility among philosophers of sci- tal issue in the philosophy of science. During the last ence. First, truthlikeness is still often conflated with decade, structural realism has gained popularity, and in- different concepts like probability, approximate truth, ternal realism has lost ground. But my guess is also partial truth, and so on.