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Japan's Potential Contributions in an East China Sea Contingency­ for More Information on This Publication, Visit C O R P O R A T I O N JEFFREY W. HORNUNG Japan's Potential Contributions in an East China Sea Contingency For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA314-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0587-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: APFootage/Alamy Stock Photo Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This research report is part of a larger study on “Understanding and Optimizing Burdenshar- ing: Developing a Deeper Understanding of Allied and Partner Contributions,” led by C. King Mallory and David Ochmanek. The public summary of the U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS) published by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in 2018 highlights the need for U.S. allies and partners to help respond to challenges presented by strategic competitors and other security challenges. In the Indo-Pacific region, the United States’ alliance with Japan is the most relevant in this endeavor. The question of whether U.S. allies such as Japan are contributing enough to—or “sharing the burden of”—the collective defense has become a major topic of discussion in the United States. The Office of the Secretary of Defense asked the RAND Corporation to research what roles could and would Japan play should a high-end contingency erupt in the East China Sea that finds the United States engaged in major combat operations with China. This report explores Japan’s ability and willingness to contribute in this situation and identifies ways in which DoD might incentivize Japan to improve its contributions. Using primary source documents of the Japanese government, this report shows that, despite Japan’s focus on self-defense, there are significant areas in which Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) can assist the United States. That assistance, however, is limited, both in terms of capabilities and existing legal restrictions. Importantly, much relies on Japan’s political decisionmakers, who, in a time of a crisis, will be challenged to ensure that their decision- making timelines are fully in sync with U.S. operational needs. In addition to assessing the strengths and weakness of the capabilities of each of the three SDF services—both current and expected over the next decade—against what would be relevant in a potential high-end East China Sea contingency, the report examines broader SDF strengths and challenges that are not service-specific but will matter for the United States during such a situation. The report also examines the legal permissions and interpretations associated with how those capabilities can be employed. This includes issues relating to the situations in which Japan would sup- port the United States, allow the United States to access its bases for combat, and authorize the SDF to use force. The report concludes with recommendations for ways to manage—and overcome—some of the major challenges identified to ensure more effective and capable Japa- nese support. These include areas where Japan could better position itself to respond to a regional contingency, both for its own defense and in support of the United States as well as ways the United States could support Japan in these efforts. The research documented here was sponsored by Strategy and Force Development office, Under Secretary for Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the RAND National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), iii iv Japan’s Potential Contributions in an East China Sea Contingency a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables .............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ........................................................................................... xvii Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Structure .......................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ..................................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER TWO Japan’s Defense Policy and Strategic Thought ............................................................ 5 Key Principles Related to Japan’s Strategy .................................................................... 5 Japan’s Strategic Environment and Strategic Priorities ...................................................... 9 Japan’s Strategic Role ...........................................................................................10 Japan’s Approach to Burden-Sharing .........................................................................12 Conclusion .......................................................................................................19 CHAPTER THREE Ground Self-Defense Force Capabilities ..................................................................21 Introduction .....................................................................................................21 Organization .................................................................................................... 22 Relevant Capabilities .......................................................................................... 23 Challenges ...................................................................................................... 28 Conclusion .......................................................................................................31 CHAPTER FOUR Air Self-Defense Force Capabilities ........................................................................33 Introduction .....................................................................................................33 Organization .................................................................................................... 34 Relevant Capabilities ...........................................................................................35 Challenges ...................................................................................................... 40 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 43 v vi Japan’s Potential Contributions in an East China Sea Contingency CHAPTER FIVE Maritime Self-Defense Force Capabilities ................................................................45 Introduction .....................................................................................................45 Organization .................................................................................................... 46 Relevant Capabilities ...........................................................................................47 Challenges .......................................................................................................52 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 54 CHAPTER SIX Broad SDF Strengths ..........................................................................................55 High Levels of Interoperability with U.S. Forces ...........................................................55 Japan’s Air and Missile Defense Systems .....................................................................58 New Domains ...................................................................................................67 Conclusion .......................................................................................................75
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