UK £2 Issue 156, Year 4 May 13, 2018 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Editorial Elections in Tunisia Disillusionment of Arab and Lebanon youth should be of concern Page 6 Pages 12-13 Iran, Israel clashes likely to escalate in Syria after Trump’s Iran walkout ► Israel has been alarmed by what it considers a military buildup by IRGC forces in southern Syria, including the strategic Golan Heights.

Ed Blanche missiles into Israel from Syria. It was the first time Iranian forces there fired directly on Israel’s military in Beirut months of growing tension and scat- tered exchanges along the Jewish t took no time for Iran and Israel state’s northern border. to start attacking each other in Israeli officials said several of the the wake of US President Don- missiles were hit by Israeli intercep- I ald Trump’s widely anticipated tors and none reached their targets withdrawal from the landmark 2015 or caused casualties. nuclear agreement with Tehran. The Israeli Air Force responded Israel had been pressing Trump with strikes by 28 aircraft that re- to ditch the nuclear accord, which portedly fired 70 missiles into more both maintain that, far from deter- than a dozen Islamic Revolution- ring Iran’s nuclear and ballistic mis- ary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities in sile programmes, encourages such Syria, including a weapons depot at activities. Damascus’s international airport. In that sense, Trump’s action of- The Syrian Observatory for Hu- fered an opportunity for Israeli man Rights, which monitors the Syr- Prime Minister Binyamin Netanya- ian war through an activist network, hu, who has sought to take military reported that at least 23 Iranian and action against Iranian forces swarm- Syrian personnel were killed. (AP) ing over Syria on Israel’s northern Military analysts said Israel’s border. strikes constituted the most exten- On brink of all-out war. Trump’s withdrawal from the nu- sive attacks inside Syria since the clear agreement “has accelerated Jewish state’s victory over Syria and A mock road sign for Damascus and a cutout of a soldier on display in an old outpost in the Israeli the escalation between Israel and Egypt in the October 1973 war. controlled Golan Heights, on May 10. Iran,” observed Ofer Zalzberg of the Further clashes look inevitable if Brussels-based International Crisis Iran holds on to its deployment plans ence in Syria for strategic reasons plateau since 1967. was sanctioned from the very top in Group. in Syria, including the Golan Heights. and wants some kind of return on Iran “will need to push back” Iran as a measured but provocative Diplomatic sources suggest Trump “Iran will retaliate through prox- its heavy investment in troops and against the Americans and their al- answer against Trump’s closest ally may turn a blind eye to Israel’s ac- ies, sooner or later, against Israeli treasure there. Israel will go on hit- lies in the region “to show that it in direct response to the US presi- tions in retaliating for Iranian at- military sites in the north,” said Gary ting back, but eventually, the Irani- cannot be bullied,” warned Mark dent’s actions. tacks. Samore, a former White House coor- ans calculate they will inflict a major Fitzpatrick of the International Soleimani has risen to hero status Netanyahu, fearful of an Islamic dinator for arms control. catastrophe on the Jewish state.” Institute for Strategic Studies in in Iran for his leadership in expand- power on his doorstep, had gone to “The confrontation is expected Israeli forces “view this Iranian London. ing Tehran’s territorial ambitions great lengths to nudge Trump to void to drag on — and inevitably esca- attack very severely,” said an Israeli Israel claimed the missile barrage and leading IRGC forces who have the 2015 agreement, even present- late — because Iran’s hardliners see military spokesman, Lieutenant- was carried out by al-Quds Force, the kept the embattled Syrian President ing a massive trove of data on Iran’s an opportunity to seize geopolitical Colonel Jonathan Conricus. “This IRGC’s special forces arm. Israel says Bashar Assad in power. nuclear programme that allegedly control of the Levant through threat- event is not over.” the Iranians’ May 10 missile opera- indicated Tehran had a deliverable ening the Jewish state while bur- Israel has been alarmed by what it tion was masterminded by al-Quds Ed Blanche is a regular nuclear device before it signed the nishing their revolutionary creden- considers a military buildup by IRGC Force commander Major-General contributor to The Arab Weekly. 2015 accord. tials and humiliating the Americans forces in southern Syria, including Qassem Soleimani, who reports di- He has covered Middle Eastern Thus unshackled by Trump, just — meaning the fumbling Trump ad- the strategic Golan Heights, which rectly to Iranian Supreme Leader affairs since 1967. after midnight May 9, Iran launched ministration. dominates northern Galilee. Israel Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. a barrage of 20 surface-to-surface “Tehran wants a long-term pres- has controlled half of the volcanic This underlined that the operation P2-8 Egypt moves towards ‘reviving roots’ Preparing with Greece amid Turkish history rethink for Ramadan

Ahmed Megahid expatriates’ affairs. centuries. It was a meeting point for inauguration of the cultural week “The Greeks and the Cypriots are all Mediterranean cultures and an and spoke of the bonds that tied the an integral part of our history and important centre during the Hellen- three countries. Cairo the event was a good occasion for istic and Roman eras. The discovery of huge gas re- each of us to revive this history.” Alexandria functioned as the capi- serves in the eastern Mediterranean, aving secured long-term Alexandria, founded in 332BC, tal of Ptolemaic, Roman and Byzan- off the coasts of Egypt and Cyprus, economic relations, Egypt, was a centre of enlightenment for tine Egypt for a millennium before brought the three countries together Greece and Cyprus are tak- the Muslim conquest in 641. It was now. Cyprus and Greece plan to send H ing steps to forge clos- only then that Alexandria stopped their gas for liquefaction in Egypt er cultural ties. serving as Egypt’s de facto capital. and then to markets in Europe. The three countries organ- Despite this, ancient landmarks The three countries also plan to ised a cultural week with the bear witness to the city’s greatness move ahead with cooperation in aim of reviving Greek and Cypri- as well as that of the cultures and fields including trade, tourism ot legacies in the ancient Egyptian civilisations that made it. and transport. city Alexandria, which was found- The Alexandria Lighthouse is one At the time Egypt takes ed by Alexander the Great. of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient active action to revive its Called “Reviving Roots,” the World. The Great Library of Alexan- Greek roots, it has been event included visits to Greek dria was the largest in the ancient equally active in down- landmarks in Alexandria and mu- world. The Bibliotheca Alexand- playing its Turkish and Ot- sical concerts by Greek artists. rina, constructed in 2002, serves as toman roots amid a dispute be- Egypt invited dozens of Greek a commemoration of the ancient li- tween Cairo and Ankara. nationals whose parents and brary and an attempt to rekindle its In what amounts to a clash of grandparents once lived in Alexan- legacy. Mediterranean cultures over Egypt, dria to the event. They visited an- The coming together of Egyptian, the Egyptian government is chang- cient Greek monuments there. Greek and Cypriot cultures and civi- ing Ottoman street names across “The event sought to send a lisations enjoyed sponsorship from Egypt. Egyptian historians say message of love to the Greeks and (Reuters) the governments of the three coun- some of the Ottoman figures that the Cypriots, one that shows that Back to roots. tries at the highest level. streets are named after do not de- Egypt is proud of its shared history Egyptian President Abdel Fattah serve the honour. with their countries and civilisa- A statue of Alexander the al-Sisi, Greek President Prokopis tions,” said Nabila Makram, Egypt’s Great stands in one end of Pavlopoulos and Cypriot President Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian minister for immigration and Fouad street in Alexandria. Nicos Anastasiades attended the reporter in Cairo. Page 20 2 May 13, 2018 Cover Story

Gathering storm over Trump’s nuclear deal walkout

Ed Blanche

Beirut

onald Trump’s decision to take the United States out of the breakthrough D 2015 agreement under which Iran curtailed its alleged quest to develop nuclear weapons has, at a stroke, hurtled the crisis- torn Middle East to the brink of regional catastrophe. The key element in this lurch towards a possible inferno will be clashes between Iran and Israel, a dogged opponent of an agreement it claims leaves Tehran clear to de- velop nuclear weapons. Although even the Americans concede that Tehran has observed the conditions of the 2015 agree- ment to the letter, Trump vowed to intensify sanctions against Iran, driven in large part by Teh- ran’s development of long-range ballistic missiles, even though these were not addressed in nego- tiations over Iran’s nuclear ambi- tions. The involvement of Iran’s proxies in regional wars was an additional concern for Washing- ton. As the crisis swelled, intelli- gence services of the main protag- onists have deepened the sense of dread pervading the region. The move by Trump, who branded the agreement “hor- rible,” was followed by a heavy May 10 exchange between Israel and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in which there were dozens of Iranian casualties in day-long clashes seen by many as a harbinger of more to come. There were intensified ballistic attacks on Riyadh, capital of US Bringing back sanctions. US President Donald Trump displays a presidential memorandum after announcing his decision to withdraw (Reuters) ally Saudi Arabia, by Iran-backed from the Iran nuclear agreement, on May 8. Houthi rebels in Yemen’s 3-year- old war. long-time European allies who The United States’ economic nuclear programme in exchange or Trump’s unpredictable admin- Lebanon, too, was under threat favour maintaining the 2015 deal, pressure on Iran could hit the Teh- for a partial lifting of US-led in- istration, especially in Europe, after parliamentary elections on leaves the Middle East open to se- ran regime particularly hard as its ternational sanctions that were while burnishing Russia’s cred- May 6 resulted in Hezbollah and rious conflict. currency is in free fall and the ef- crippling its economy. Trump, ibility as a strategic partner. its allies winning more than half For the moment, though, it is fects on ordinary Iranians may however, insisted the deal did lit- Palestinian anger is mounting of the 128 seats, effectively put- not clear how Tehran will respond be extreme — possibly enough to tle to prevent Iran’s ambitions of after Israeli forces fired on pro- ting it in control of the sectarian- to Trump beyond standing firm on bring about regime change. In- acquiring nuclear capability. testers in Gaza, killing more than plagued state and consolidating the nuclear deal, secured by the deed, that may be the key objec- Trump announced his decision three dozen and wounding hun- Iran’s political presence in the United States and five major pow- tive in Trump’s strategy. It is what to abandon the 2015 agreement dreds more in recent weeks. If Levant. ers — Russia, China, France, Brit- the two leading anti-Iranian hawks on May 8 after Netanyahu’s bomb- that spreads to the West Bank, Is- ain and Germany. in his administration — national shell claim a week earlier that rael faces a possible new Palestin- All of them fervently support security adviser John Bolton and thousands of Iranian files purport- ian uprising. Iran could raise the stakes in the 2015 agreement, which they Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — edly seized inside Iran proved that its proxy war in Yemen say will push Tehran away from have long sought to achieve. Tehran had deceived the world The United States’ against arch-rival Saudi its objective of developing nuclear When the nuclear agreement over its nuclear development. Arabia that could imperil US warheads and the ballistic missiles was signed on July 14, 2015, it was Netanyahu has relentlessly op- economic pressure on Iran interests in the region. to carry them. All have pledged to hailed as a historic breakthrough posed the 2015 deal, known as the could hit the Tehran regime abide by the agreement despite in the struggle between Iran and Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac- particularly hard as its Hezbollah, which dominates Trump’s fiery opposition. This the West and was the signature tion (JCPOA). currency is in free fall and Lebanon militarily, and Israel suggests that relations between achievement of Barack Obama’s The huge archive of 10,000 pag- the effects on ordinary have been steadily gearing up a Washington and the European presidency. es of stolen papers smuggled out Iranians may be extreme. new war since their 2006 conflict capitals will deteriorate. Iran agreed to scale back its of Iran by Israeli intelligence was ended with the movement fight- mostly related to a covert bomb- The scheduled May 14 move of ing Israel’s vaunted defence forces making project that was halted in the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to to a standstill, something no other 2003. Jerusalem — another highly pro- Arab force has done since the Jew- Tehran will push Syria build-up It is not clear what credence vocative step by Trump — could ish state was founded in 1948. Trump gave Netanyahu’s claim easily ignite wider violence in the Jerusalem has repeatedly threat- Some accounts state that Teh- that Tehran used the nuclear deal tensions stoked by Trump’s action Ed Blanche ened to crush Hezbollah in an all- ran, which has poured billions of to buy time to work secretly on its on the nuclear deal. out, no-holds-barred blitzkrieg on dollars and tens of thousands of nuclear programme, just as North Iran’s hardliners could also fo- the principle that the Lebanese Beirut fighters into Syria during the 7-year Korea had done in a 1994 agree- ment anti-American violence state is indistinguishable from the war to aid Assad, wants to build ment with the United States. in Iraq, which is to have parlia- Iran-backed movement. ollowing Iran’s escalation a network of air, ground and na- However, what Netanyahu re- mentary elections on May 12 and Israeli Education Minister of its attacks on Israel, Teh- val bases in Syria to project power vealed suggested that Iran was seems doomed to become an Iran- Naftali Bennett, a hard-line ran is expected to continue throughout the Levant and possi- far closer to a deliverable nuclear ruled province through a power- right-winger in Prime Minister F building up its forces, par- bly beyond. weapon than was widely believed ful Tehran-backed Shia militia Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition ticularly the Islamic Revolution- Significantly, Israel’s military before the JCPOA was signed and bloc that has become a significant cabinet, warned on May 7: “Hez- ary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its strategists who have long prevent- that gave weight to Trump’s deci- political force. bollah equals Lebanon… paramilitary proxies, in war-torn ed Prime Minister Binyamin Netan- sion. Iran could raise the stakes in its “The State of Israel will not dif- Syria and to hit the Jewish state yahu from launching a major pre- An Israeli intelligence officer in proxy war in Yemen against arch- ferentiate between the sovereign again. emptive operation against Iranian a briefing on the documents said rival Saudi Arabia and imperil US state of Lebanon and Hezbollah This “second front” in Syria has forces in Syria, are now quiescent 99% of the data they contained on interests in the region. and will view Lebanon as respon- been steadily developing for more on that score as the threat on its Tehran’s secret nuclear arms pro- The New York Times reported sible for any action from within its than a year. northern border grows apace. gramme was new to Israel. on May 3 that the United States, territory.” Lebanon’s Hezbollah, a prime Israel claims Iran has provided Iran’s reform-seeking president, which has sought to distance itself In recent weeks, Israel has re- Iranian asset, and its swelling army Hezbollah with more than 150,000 Hassan Rohani, warned the Unit- from the brutal civil war in Yemen peatedly launched air and missile of Iraqi, Afghani and Pakistani missiles, many capable of reach- ed States on May 6 that it would where its ally, Saudi Arabia, is bat- strikes against Iranian positions in Shias were key elements in Syrian ing anywhere in the Jewish state, suffer “historic regret” for quit- tling Houthi Shia rebels aided by the Golan Heights in southern Syr- President Bashar Assad’s success in including all its urban centres and ting the 2015 accord and issued Tehran, quietly deployed special ia. It claims the IRGC and its Shia recapturing much of the territory strategic zones. a veiled threat that Tehran could forces on the Saudi border in late allies fighting in Syria are seeking he lost to rebel forces. Major missile strikes may be resume its mothballed nuclear en- 2017. to establish a new military front The May 10 missile bombard- counterproductive in the current ergy programme Their mission: to locate and there against the Jewish state. The ment of Israel by the IRGC under- geopolitical climate, largely due Trump’s move could isolate destroy ballistic missiles used to Iranians are likely to hold on to lines that Tehran expects payback to Israel’s superior air defences, so the United States, along with Is- pummel Riyadh and other Saudi their presence in Syria, making it from Assad’s regime, namely a free the Iranians’ options may focus on rael, diplomatically, increasing targets with the aid of the IRGC, the site of more flashpoints. hand to batter Israel and prepare asymmetric and non-conventional expectations of a significant mili- Iran’s most effective military force The region is dangerously un- for the showdown that analysts retaliation, a strategy it has used tary conflict in the Middle East. and an old enemy of US forces. stable and Trump’s extraordinary fear is inevitable. before. The blowback will deepen world A direct clash on that front move, defying the United States’ opinion against the United States could escalate sharply. May 13, 2018 3 Trump Exits Iran Deal With Iran deal in ruins and tensions in Middle East running high, US has no contingency plan

Thomas Seibert more likely, especially if Iran refus- es to renegotiate with the United States,” Ibrahim al-Assil, a fellow at Washington the Middle East Institute in Wash- ington, said via e-mail. y ripping up the Iran nu- The reinstitution of US sanc- clear deal, US President tions against Iran gives Tehran the Donald Trump freed Teh- chance to shake off rules set by the B ran from international con- international community without straints on its actions both at home worrying about a new control re- and in the region without provid- gime. One example is the end of a ing a new control mechanism. Con- system of inspections that was in- sequences for the Middle East and troduced under the Joint Compre- US-European relations could be hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Iran costly, observers said. agreement. That had made sure “We could lose all checks on that Iranian nuclear activity stays Iran’s nuclear programme,” said peaceful, International Atomic En- Rachel Brandenburg, director of ergy Agency said. the Middle East Security Initiative Iranian President Hassan Rohani at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft said Tehran could return to its nu- Centre for Strategy and Security in clear weapons programme within Washington. weeks if there is no agreement with European powers that want to stick to the JCPOA. Trump suggested that he It is not clear if Iranian authori- expects Tehran to agree ties, encouraged by radicals at home, would make good on that to new negotiations threat or if they would use their under the weight of the regional proxies to ratchet up pres- sanction load. sure on the United States, risking more sanctions and retaliatory The United States’ withdrawal measures. from the Iran agreement puts pres- Supporters of the deal say Iran’s sure on America’s allies, she said, compliance is evidence that the adding: “Trump has in effect trans- agreement has done what it was ferred the responsibility to main- supposed to do. Without the tain or find a new nuclear agree- JCPOA, Iran’s activities will be ment to the Europeans.” much harder to monitor. Following Trump’s announce- As new schemes must be devel- ment, tensions between Israel oped to keep an eye on Tehran’s Dangerous involvement. Iran’s Army Chief of Staff Major-General Mohammad Bagheri (L) and other and Iran flared with Iranian mis- nuclear activities, the focus is like- senior officers on the front line in the northern province of Aleppo, last October. (AP) sile attacks on the Golan Heights ly to shift from issues such as Iran’s that triggered withering Israeli air missile programme or its meddling strikes on Iranian military installa- in regional conflicts in the Middle have to be invested into preventing vated could be introduced against pean allies.” tions in Syria. East, Brandenburg said. “We run Iran from getting nuclear weap- Iran. “We want to put as much eco- Britain, France and Germany said “Trump’s withdrawal from the the risk that energies that could ons,” she said. nomic pressure on Iran as we can,” they would do all they could to pro- deal may make direct confronta- have gone into pressuring Iran’s In announcing the US withdrawal Bolton said. tect their huge business interests in tion between the two countries missile programme will now again May 8, Trump did not say how Iran Coming after weeks of lobby- Iran, yet it is unclear how far they could be kept from returning to a ing by France, Germany and the would be able to shield firms from nuclear military programme but United Kingdom, which wanted to US sanctions. In a sign of the deep suggested that he expects Tehran keep the Iran deal intact, the new frustration in European capitals, to agree to new negotiations under US approach also drove American- a French government spokesman the weight of the sanction load. European relations to a new low. said one option for Europe would “The fact is they are going to Some observers say Europe has be to fight “any unilateral meas- want to make a new and lasting been humiliated by a US president ure” by the United States at the deal, one that benefits all of Iran who listened to plans and appeals World Trade Organisation. and the Iranian people,” Trump by European leaders but chose to Trump’s administration tried to said. “When they do, I am ready, ignore them. “Trump’s withdrawal put a positive spin on the crisis, un- willing and able.” from the Iran deal is a major defeat derlining talks with its allies were Speaking at a cabinet meeting for the three major European pow- about to begin. “We will continue a day after his announcement, ers who tried to pull their weight to work alongside our allies and Trump was equally vague when collectively in Washington,” Ulrich partners to ensure that Iran can asked what he would do if Iran Speck, a senior fellow at the Trans- never acquire a nuclear weapon restarted its nuclear weapons atlantic Academy, a research in- and will work with others to ad- programme. “Iran will find out. stitution in Washington, wrote on dress the range of Iran’s malign They’re going to find out. They’ll Twitter. “Trump doesn’t care about influence,” US Defence Secretary negotiate or something will hap- what the Europeans think.” James Mattis told a Senate hearing pen,” he said without elaborating. A Western diplomat who de- on May 9. Trump’s national security ad- clined to be identified told Reuters viser John Bolton said additional news agency the decision “an- Thomas Seibert is a sanctions beyond those suspended nounces sanctions for which the Washington correspondent under the JCPOA that are reacti- first victims will be Trump’s Euro- for The Arab Weekly. Wide backing in GCC for Trump’s decision, Riyadh vows to match any Iranian nuclear programme

Mohammed Alkhereiji heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the international community to sup- well as its support for militias in Qatari state-controlled media, United Arab Emirates. port Trump’s aim of making the these countries,” a statement by the including Al Jazeera, called the US An official statement from Saudi Middle East a nuclear-free zone. Bahraini Foreign Ministry said. move unjustified. London Arabia said Riyadh had initially sup- The following day, the UAE, in Kuwait’s official news service The channel gave significant ported the 2015 agreement based coordination with the US Treasury carried an interview with an uni- coverage to international reactions audi Arabia will pursue its on a need to stop the proliferation Department, placed nine Iranian dentified Foreign Ministry source critical of Trump’s announcement, own nuclear weapons if Iran of weapons of mass destruction. entities and individuals on its list of saying Kuwait maintains its policy including from Russian and Iranian decides to restart its atomic “Iran exploited the economic terrorists and terror organisations of non-interference in the affairs officials, as well as former US presi- S weapons programme, Saudi revenue resulting from sanctions for allegedly funneling millions of of other countries but that “Kuwait dent Barack Obama. Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said. being lifted and used it to continue dollars to Iran’s Islamic Revolution- understands and respects the US The Qatari government issued “We will do whatever it takes to its activities that destabilise the re- ary Guards Corps’ al-Quds Force move.” a statement the day after the an- protect our people. We have made gion, particularly by developing its (IRGC-QF). Oman, which helped get the nouncement calling for restraint. it very clear that if Iran acquires a ballistic missiles and supporting Bahrain, which has often com- United States and Iran to the nego- Some of Iran’s proxies, including nuclear capability we will do every- terrorist groups in the region, in- plained of Iranian interference in its tiation table, said it was following the Houthi militia in Yemen, in- thing we can to do the same,” Jubeir cluding Hezbollah and the Houthi domestic affairs, also endorsed the the US decision to withdraw from creased their attacks on Saudi Ara- told CNN. militias,” the Saudi statement said. move by Trump. the deal and that it appreciated the bia with ballistic missiles suspected His declaration came as most The United Arab Emirates, Ri- “The agreement was charac- position of the other five partners to have been provided by Iran. Gulf Arab countries prepared them- yadh’s main regional ally, also is- terised by several shortcomings, still committed to the agreement. The day after Trump announced selves for the worst after US Presi- sued a statement in support of most important of which was not Qatar, unapologetically, ex- the withdrawal, Saudi air defences dent Donald Trump announced his Trump’s decision. It said the JCPOA addressing Iran’s ballistic missile pressed a pro-Iranian reaction. Last intercepted two missiles over Ri- withdrawal from the Joint Compre- had not guaranteed that Tehran programme or Iran’s threat to the June, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bah- yadh. hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nu- would refrain from pursuing a nu- security and stability of the region rain and Egypt severed ties with clear agreement with Iran, a move clear weapon in the future. through its interference in the in- Qatar over its ties to militant groups Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf strongly supported by regional The statement also called on the ternal affairs of other countries as and its relations with Iran. section editor of The Arab Weekly. 4 May 13, 2018 Cover Story

Can Europe save the Iran nuclear deal?

Mahmud el-Shafey JCPOA, although it was unclear whether they would move in con- cert with Europe in any reaction to London the deal. The European Union — another fter US President Don- JCPOA signatory — arranged a crisis ald Trump announced meeting with Tehran, with Iranian his withdrawal from the President Hassan Rohani report- A Iran nuclear deal, Euro- edly saying that Europe had a “very pean allies scrambled to salvage as limited opportunity” to save the much of the agreement as possible. deal. However, few observers said the “As we have always said, the nu- deal could remain viable amid an clear deal is not a bilateral agree- increasingly complex international ment and it is not in the hands of diplomatic scene and an intransi- any single country to terminate it gent Iranian reaction. unilaterally,” said EU foreign policy British Prime Minister Theresa chief Federica Mogherini. May, German Chancellor Angela The European Union earlier float- Merkel and French President Em- ed plans to shield European compa- manuel Macron issued a joint nies from US sanctions. European statement expressing “regret and companies doing business in Iran concern” at Trump’s decision and have a 6-month deadline to wind affirming their intention not to al- up investments or risk US sanc- low the Joint Comprehensive Plan tions. However, many European of Action (JCPOA) to collapse. firms, which have sought to exploit “Our governments remain com- the untapped Iranian market, will mitted to ensuring the agreement weigh costs and benefits consider- is upheld and will work with all the ing possible US sanctions. remaining parties to the deal to en- Trade between the European Un- sure this remains the case including ion and Iran increased from $9.2 Tough task. British Prime Minister Theresa May (C), French President Emmanuel Macron (L) through ensuring the continuing billion in 2015 to $16.4 billion in and German Chancellor Angela Merkel before their meeting in Brussels, last March. (Reuters) economic benefits to the Iranian 2016 after the JCPOA was signed people that are linked to the agree- and $25 billion in 2017. dampened.” over the deal and Trump’s repeated and clearing-houses that can green- ment,” the statement said. French energy firm Total CEO German trade with Iran rose 42% threats to withdraw gave the Euro- light legitimate business with Iran.” UK Foreign Secretary Boris John- Christophe de Margerie called on since 2015 to more than $4 billion a pean Union time to formulate plans Adebahr, in testimony to the son told parliament that Britain had the European Union to pass a block- year. on how to keep the deal alive fol- Committee on Foreign Affairs of “no intention of walking away” ing statute to protect European While the European Union had lowing a US withdrawal. the European Parliament in April, from the deal. Johnson called on firms from US sanctions. Total is said that it was considering plans called on the European Union to Washington to outline plans to se- working on the South Pars project on how to circumvent US sanctions, European companies use its foreign policy strengths cure a new settlement. “Britain in an agreement worth around $3.8 details were sparse. doing business in Iran to deal with the aftermath of a US withdrawal. stands ready to support that task billion. Officials from the United King- have a 6-month deadline but, in the meantime, we will strive Dieter Kempt, president of the dom, France, Germany and the Eu- “It requires a cohesive approach to preserve the gains made by the Federation of German Industries, ropean Union’s foreign policy office to wind up investments built on identifiable interests and [agreement],” he said. said German companies would look asserted support for the deal dur- or risk US sanctions. applying the appropriate instru- French Foreign Minister Jean- for ways to circumvent sanctions ing a meeting with Iranian Deputy “The European Union should ments. This will bring the recogni- Yves Le Drian stressed that the deal but expressed pessimism. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi establish procedures that allow tion by others that the European “is not dead.” He told France’s RTL “Our firms have invested a lot of in Brussels. They sought to assure European companies to trade with Union as a one-of-a-kind institu- radio that “there’s an American hope in the market openings that Tehran that Europe would imple- Iran to entice Tehran to stay in the tion desires more than most estab- withdrawal from the deal but the resulted from the lifting of the eco- ment the JCPOA as long as Iran deal,” Cornelius Adebahr, a fellow lished states,” he said. deal is still there.” nomic sanctions,” he told Britain’s complied with its obligations, at Carnegie Europe told Bloomb- Russian and Chinese officials -ex Guardian newspaper. “Now these whatever Trump’s decision. erg News. “This includes setting Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab pressed their commitment to the prospects have been considerably The months-long uncertainty up euro-denominated credit lines Weekly correspondent in London.

Viewpoint Tehran divided in its response to Trump

S President Donald nation and was not something Trump’s withdrawal that we would like. However, Iran from the nuclear deal magnanimously and generously Ali Alfoneh with Iran, officially accepted it for all the world to see.” known as the Joint He dismissed the threat of US Comprehensive military operations against Iran: UPlan of Action (JCPOA), elicited “The Americans and the Saudis contradictory reactions in Tehran, don’t have the capability and reflecting deep divisions among the the guts to start a military attack regime’s ruling elites. against Iran. This is why they try While Iranian President Hassan through economic warfare.” Rohani and the technocratic Other commanders previously elites promised to abide by disclosed that the IRGC had their obligations under the recommended for the Rohani nuclear agreement, the Islamic government to withdraw from both Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) the nuclear deal and the Treaty on pushed for withdrawal from the the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear JCPOA. It is not known which path Weapons. These commanders may Tehran will choose but the choice be more interested in undermining will mean the difference between a Rohani to eliminate the last pockets hot or cold war. Turbulent juncture. An Iranian policeman (C) stands as of civilian resistance to a military In the first official reaction to anti-US demonstrators protest outside the former US Embassy dictatorship in the making than in Trump’s withdrawal from the headquarters in Tehran, on May 9. (AFP) driving foreign policy. deal, Rohani tried to calm the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Iranian public. In a live televised concludes “that its interests [under The question, of course, is Ali Khamenei tried to balance the speech, the Iranian president told the JCPOA) are not guaranteed.” whether Rohani will stick to this positions of Rohani and the IRGC, people not to be concerned about Iranian Foreign Minister sensible course. Statements by saying Iran remains committed to the “economic consequences” Mohammad Javad Zarif took the IRGC commanders suggest that the JCPOA but he does not trust the of Washington’s new policy. The same line on Twitter, declaring Iran’s president may find it difficult Europeans. words, however, were hardly his intention to “spearhead a to do so. In his first response to The morning after Trump enough to assure a country that has diplomatic effort to examine Trump’s withdrawal from the deal, announced the United States seen its currency in free fall against whether remaining JCPOA IRGC commander Major-General would withdraw from the nuclear the US dollar in recent months. participants can ensure its full Mohammad Ali Jafari dismissed deal, the IRGC’s political allies in Rohani tried to reassure other benefits for Iran. The outcome will Rohani’s approach. parliament burned a US flag and parties to the nuclear agreement determine our response.” “It is clear that the Europeans, papers symbolising the JCPOA that Iran would adhere to its The approach by Rohani and [who are caught] between Iran while chanting “Death to America.” obligations under the JCPOA. Zarif makes perfect sense. They are and the United States, can’t decide Watching them, Iran’s parliament “In the course of a short time, aware of the deep divide between independently,” Jafari said. “They Speaker Ali Larijani mused: “Be Setting the we reached the conclusion that the United States and its European are dependent on the United States careful not to set the parliament we can achieve all the demands of allies, let alone Russia and China. and the destiny of the JCPOA is ablaze!” country ablaze is the Iranian nation in cooperation Accordingly, they are trying to clear.” Setting the country ablaze is exactly what with five countries,” Rohani said. depict the United States as the Jafari also said the United States exactly what Tehran risks doing if Tehran risks “Despite the desire of the United aggressor even as Iran lives up to had used Iran’s enrichment of the IRGC gets to decide Iran’s line States and the Zionist regime, the its obligations under the nuclear uranium as a “pretext” to weaken on the nuclear issue. doing if the IRGC JCPOA will remain and we can take agreement. They hope to isolate Iran’s military capabilities. gets to decide steps towards regional and global the United States and prevent Major-General Mohammad Ali Alfoneh is a non-resident peace and stability.” an international coalition from Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Iran’s line on the Rohani added, however, that Iran imposing new or reimposing old armed forces, said: “The JCPOA Centre for the Middle East at nuclear issue. may change direction if the country sanctions against Iran. was not the desire of the Iranian the Atlantic Council. May 13, 2018 5 Trump Exits Iran Deal

Turbulence ahead. Logos of Airbus group and IranAir on display on the day IranAir took delivery of Airbus A321 near Toulouse, on January 11. (Reuters) Business fallout from reinstating Iran sanctions will be especially felt by Europe

Thomas Frank and the economic ties between Iran The interlude leaves open the pos- and not other actions, such as bal- traterritorial sanctions” — that affect and the European Union. sibility that US officials could amend listic missile development. non-US businesses, individuals and French Foreign Minister Jean- the nuclear agreement in that peri- Another observer, the US law firm governments by requiring them to Washington Yves Le Drian emphasised the point od to address Trump’s longstanding Gibson Dunn, which advises on in- follow the restrictions to maintain in an interview on French radio the concerns about the pact. ternational trade, wrote in an advi- access to US financial institutions S President Donald day after Trump’s announcement. “This window provides US Sec- sory that, because the sanctions will and consumer markets. European Trump’s decision to with- “The deal is not dead,” Le Drian retary of State Mike Pompeo with not be reinstated immediately, “it is entities are free to continue deal- draw from the 2015 Iran said. “There’s an American with- additional time to seek agreements entirely possible that the announce- ing with Iran but that would mean U nuclear deal has created an drawal from the deal but the deal is that address Trump’s key concerns ment by Trump will serve as an im- losing access to the much larger US uncertain future about whether Eu- still there.” with the deal, namely, the sunset petus to negotiations that bring Iran market and large US financial insti- rope and Iran will follow his lead or The same day, French President clauses, inspections regime and and the rest of the [signatories] to tutions. try to retain the pact without Wash- Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone lack of application to Iran’s ballistic the table. Such an approach could “The US economy is ten times that ington. with Iranian President Hassan Ro- missile programme, support for ter- mirror the Trump administration’s of Iran in terms of size and value, Trump announced that the Unit- hani, who wants to maintain the rorism and destabilising activities recent tactics with respect to steel so it makes more sense to do busi- ed States would reimpose sanctions deal with France and the other sig- in the region,” wrote Brian O’Toole, and aluminium tariffs, where a ness with the United States than the against Iran that have been waived natories — Russia, China, Germany who worked on sanctions in the US splashy public announcement is fol- Islamic Republic,” Sanam Vakil, a since the Joint Comprehensive Plan and the United Kingdom. Treasury under Obama and now is a lowed by a series of repeated exten- professor in the Middle East studies of Action (JCPOA) agreement took The United States is providing fellow at the Atlantic Council think- sions as the administration seeks to department at the Johns Hopkins effect in January 2016 under for- “wind-down” periods that give tank in Washington. extract further concessions.” School of Advanced International mer US President Barack Obama. businesses time to wrap up their The reinstatement of US sanc- Studies in Italy, told NBC News. The waivers, which allowed Iran activities with Iran before the sanc- tions is likely to affect European One question that remains is how to increase oil exports and receive tions are reinstated. “At the end of European entities are businesses more than US business- strictly the Trump administration additional foreign investment, had the 90-day and 180-day wind-down free to continue dealing es, which face restrictions on deal- decides to enforce the sanctions it is reversed years of economic decline periods, the applicable sanctions with Iran but that would ing with Iran that are unrelated to reinstating. An agency in the Treas- in Iran and resulted in billions of will come back into full effect,” the mean losing access to the the country’s nuclear programme. ury Department called the Office of dollars’ worth of exports from EU US Treasury Department said after much larger US market. US businesses and financial insti- Foreign Assets Control is in charge countries. Trump’s announcement. tutions “have remained broadly of implementing US sanctions and Although Trump’s decision was The 90-day wind-down period Trump has protested that, under prohibited from engaging with it has the flexibility to decide which widely expected, it will not take applies to the purchase of US dol- the agreement, the restrictions on Iran even after the JCPOA was im- non-US companies will be affected full effect until November 8, which lars, trade in gold and other metals Iran’s ability to enrich uranium — a plemented in 2016,” Gibson Dunn and how strictly sanctions are en- gives the six other signatories to the and the aviation and automobile process crucial to making nuclear wrote. forced. deal, including Iran, time to explore industries. The 180-day wind-down weapons — expire after 10 to 15 The sanctions that the US plans ways to maintain both the restric- targets Iran’s financial and oil in- years and that the sanctions apply to reinstate are largely “secondary Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly tions on Iran’s nuclear programme dustries. only to Iran’s nuclear programme sanctions” — sometimes called “ex- correspondent in Washington.

Viewpoint Russia benefits from Trump’s Iran deal withdrawal

ussian President in Trump’s withdrawal from in their neighbourhood. benefit. Vladimir Putin sig- the Iranian nuclear accord. The While oil prices may not only While Israel, Saudi Arabia and nalled his disapproval conspiracy-minded might even rise but remain elevated because of the UAE are likely to pursue good Mark N. Katz of US President Donald think that he made the move to Trump’s move, prolonged higher relations with Russia despite Trump’s withdrawal benefit Russia. oil prices would lead to increased its support for the JCPOA, none from the Joint Com- Even though Trump’s move has American shale oil production, of them is likely to reduce their Rprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) benefited Moscow in several ways, which will put a ceiling on how dependence on the United States. nuclear agreement with Iran. Putin, the question is how much Putin high oil prices can go and may They are all going to continue to though, benefits in several ways can capitalise on them, especially result in a prolonged lower oil price rely on the power that shares their from Trump’s move. beyond the short term. environment. concerns about Iran and not one Because not just Russia and Trump’s withdrawal from the While increased Iranian-US that doesn’t. China but also the United States’ JCPOA causing a rift within the hostility should logically (at least Although Russia’s ability to talk European allies continue to support alliance is reminiscent of how when viewed from Moscow) result to the opposing parties in the region the JCPOA, Moscow benefits from George W. Bush’s determination in greater Iranian dependence on raises not just the possibility but how Trump’s withdrawal creates a to intervene in Iraq without UN Russia, Tehran has not proven the expectation that it can mediate rift between the United States and Security Council approval also especially amenable to Russia among them, it is doubtful that it Europe. caused one. The earlier rift, though, during periods of tense ties with can actually do so. To the extent that Trump’s did not last long and Putin was not Washington. Being a successful mediator move serves to raise oil prices, able to gain from it. This time could be different but, does not just require the ability to Russia (as well as other oil- There is no guarantee, then, given the longstanding Iranian talk with all sides in a dispute but producing countries) will benefit that European-US differences public distrust of Russia, it is the ability to provide benefits for economically. over the JCPOA will interfere with doubtful that this will disappear. making peace. The US-sponsored Increased Iranian-US hostility their overall relations, especially Indeed, Iranians might see Russia Camp David Accord between should serve to make Tehran more at a time when many European not as protecting it from the United Israel and Egypt, for example, dependent on Moscow. governments are increasingly States but taking advantage of was facilitated by Washington’s Although Israel, Saudi Arabia and concerned about Russian behaviour Iranian-US hostility for its own willingness and ability to provide the United Arab Emirates support both sides with a significant amount Trump’s withdrawal from the of assistance. Putin, by contrast, JCPOA due to their fear of Iran’s does not seem willing or able to do regional policies that the agreement this. does not address, all have sought Thus, while Trump’s withdrawal good relations with Russia and are from the JCPOA raises the prospect likely to continue doing so despite of Russia benefiting in several ways their differences with it on the from the move, Putin cannot be JCPOA and Iran generally. certain that he can successfully do In other words, Trump siding so over the long term. with those countries on the JCPOA On the other hand, Western issue while Putin is not doing so leaders cannot be certain that Even though has not involved any costs for Putin will be unsuccessful. It surely Trump’s move Russia. would have been better if Trump Tension between Iran on the had not given Putin the opportunity has benefited one hand and Israel, Saudi Arabia to exploit the situation. Moscow in and the United Arab Emirates on several ways, the the other allows Russia to play the Mark N. Katz, a professor of role of mediator since it gets along government and politics at the question is how with all sides while the Trump George Mason University Schar much Putin can administration does not talk to School of Policy and Government, Tehran. Closer than ever. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his is the 2018 Sir William Luce Fellow capitalise on Indeed, there does not appear Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Moscow, last April. at Durham University in the United them. to be any downside for Russia (Reuters) Kingdom. 6 May 13, 2018 Opinion

Editorial Disillusionment of Arab youth should be a source of concern recent Gallup survey paints a disturbing picture of the mindset of large numbers of young people in several Arab countries. The survey, conducted in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, indicates that an ever-largerA section of the population is pinning its hopes for the future on leaving their home country. In 2017, close to half (46%) of North African poll respondents aged 15-29 expressed a desire to leave their home country. That was a 6% increase on the year before. About one-third of those in the 30-49 age group expressed the same wish, compared to 24% the previous year. What is particularly worrisome is that it is the younger and better-educated of North Africa’s populations who say they want to leave. The desire to permanently migrate increases proportionately with the level of education. A higher percentage (40%) of North Africans with university degrees wants to migrate than other groups, the survey indicated. As Gallup analysts Iman Berrached and RJ Reinhart point out, this “does have potentially © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly negative economic and social implications for the countries in the region whose youngest and most educated residents increasingly want to leave.” US needs a new strategy for That’s a problem. Except for Libya, which is faced with civil strife, the other North African countries in the Middle East and North Africa survey are relatively stable. However, socio- economic conditions in those countries are tough for large sections of the population. Far Khairallah Khairallah too many young people struggle with a lack of The fate of the Iranian presence in Syria decides jobs and fail to see prospects for a better future. The problem is compounded by young the fate of the Iranian regime in Iran. people’s impatience with their lot, which can lead them to pursue desperate options. These he American pull-out of the Obama administration, the powerful neighbours China, Japan could include illegal immigration when legal the nuclear agreement Trump administration knows that and South Korea. avenues are unavailable. Many young people with Iran is, by itself, the problem with Iran is not just Keeping North Korea under spend their days exploring ways to leave. These insufficient without a its nuclear programme. Returning control is a major achievement by include doctors, engineers and other univer- clear US strategy for the everything to the Iranian nuclear the Trump administration because sity-trained young cadres with promising MENA region. US Presi- programme was a scam of com- North Korea was supplying missile careers at home. These professionals are not Tdent Donald Trump seems aware of mon sense and the truth. The real technology to Iran and other rogue just seeking better pay abroad. They are after a that, judging by the speech during problem was Iran’s behaviour in regimes, such as Bashar Assad’s in better quality of life and a good education for which he announced his decision. the region and its expansion plan, Syria. their children. Trump gave all the elements which relies primarily on igniting Still, in the absence of a compre- For Maghrebis, Europe remains the most that can constitute the basis for a sectarian strife. That has always hensive strategy for the MENA re- appealing destination. Young cadres from the comprehensive strategy for the ex- been the case with Iran and its gion, Trump’s speech remains just Maghreb are steadily leaving their home tended region, especially that it has proxies, which explains Hezbollah’s words. The needed strategy must countries and heading for Europe, which offers become clear that Iranian meddling provoking Beirut’s Sunni popula- convince Iran that it is no longer them incentives to migrate. has reached North Africa through tion after Lebanon’s latest elections. welcome in Syria. This means, of It is not surprising, although a tad hypocriti- the long-standing conflict between We know that Hezbollah is course, that the American pres- cal, that Europe is erecting barriers to keep out Morocco and Algeria. The best proof nothing more than a brigade in ence in Syria is a necessity. the less educated but more willing to take in of that is the announcement by Mo- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard It is necessary to liberate the suf- well-trained foreign workers. In other circum- rocco that it cut diplomatic relations Corps. The party’s sole mission is fering Syrian people from Iranian stances, Europe’s willingness to take in young with Iran after it said it had proof to inform all Lebanese that their colonisation and protect them professionals from south of the Mediterranean that Hezbollah elements had been country is under Iranian mandate. from the Kremlin’s dreams of gran- could be a relief to Maghreb countries strug- training Polisario Front separatists For Hezbollah, its victory was not deur. The Kremlin, in fact, persists gling with graduate unemployment but these in the Moroccan Sahara. The Polisa- limited to the elections but extends in playing out its fantasy of a are often young professionals who are sorely rio separatist movement has been over all of Lebanon and its citizens. mighty Russia capable of creating needed at home. Their sudden departure could Algeria’s instrument in its silent war The Iranian proxy is telling the its own influence zone, starting be unsettling to their societies. against Morocco since 1975. Lebanese that, from now on, they with Syria. Not everyone who wants to leave will do so In his speech, Trump went over will be treated in the same manner In the presence of a compre- but many of those who have set their minds on every Iranian misdeed in the MENA it treated the people of southern hensive US strategy for the MENA a permanent exit tend, unfortunately, to lose region. It was all part of Iran’s Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley on region, America’s European part- interest in their home country’s political and expansionist project. Launching Election Day and the days preced- ners in the Iran nuclear deal will public life. ballistic missile from Yemen against ing it. no longer have valid arguments Elections are a case in point. Driven away by Saudi Arabia is part of that project. The Trump administration is for keeping the agreement with disillusionment, too many young voters Trump said that “the Iranian regime serious in its handling of the Iranian Tehran. The Europeans have ar- shunned Tunisia’s May 6 municipal elections. It is the leading state sponsor of ter- file. Following Trump’s speech last gued — correctly — that the Iranian was older adults or senior citizens who were too ror. It exports dangerous missiles, October about Iran, there have been deal could still be useful once it is often queuing at polling stations. fuels conflicts across the Middle changes at the top echelons of the extended to include Iran’s ballistic By their conspicuous absence, young voters East and supports terrorist proxies US administration. Mike Pompeo missiles programme and curbing disavow the electoral process. Furthermore, and militias such as Hezbollah, replaced Rex Tillerson as secretary its influence in the region. There they deprive their country of the chance to hear Hamas, the Taliban and al-Qaeda. of state and John Bolton replaced will be no need for this reasoning vital voices, those that can point the way to the Over the years Iran and its proxies H.R. McMaster as national security if a plan to keep Iran within its future. They also withhold their support from have bombed American embas- adviser. boundaries is put in place. youth-oriented and progressive candidates. sies and military installations, At the same time, North Ko- Limiting Iran’s expansion starts When they are outside the realm of electoral murdered hundreds of American rea was co-opted. The regime in with Syria. The fate of the Iranian politics, young people can skew towards a service members and kidnapped, Pyongyang has decided to freeze presence in Syria decides the fate dangerous marginalisation. A tiny minority imprisoned and tortured American its nuclear arsenal and turn North of the Iranian regime in Iran. The could be attracted to extremist narratives. citizens.” Korea into a “normal” state coexist- regime will crumble in Iran when That’s a risk society cannot afford. In short then, and contrary to ing peacefully with its economically Iran is kicked out of Syria. Employment — decent employment — is the The Syrian regime went through name of the game. A report published by the a similar experience in Lebanon. It International Labour Organisation says that started to crumble the day it was 68.6% of employment in the Arab world is in kicked out from Lebanon. Today the informal sector. That’s not the sort of its survival in Damascus is contin- employment that will keep young people gent on the Iranian and Russian socially or economically engaged. All too often, presence in Syria but these two informal employment means no health care, Missing US regimes are behaving unnaturally pension, solid career path or stability. strategy. outside their borders and sooner It is not only about jobs. Young people must Russian or later the cost of their interven- feel they have a real stake in their societies and President tion will become too high to bear. their societies must, in turn, show they have a Vladimir Syria must be the starting point stake in the next generation and their chance of Putin (R) and for a comprehensive plan for cor- a decent future. Israeli Prime recting the major mistake made in Until that new social contract is drafted, Minister 2003 when Iraq was handed on a young Arabs will probably continue to see their Binyamin silver platter to Iran. future in faraway lands. They should be Netanyahu in dreaming about greener pastures at home, too. Moscow, on Khairallah Khairallah is a May 9. (Reuters) Lebanese writer. May 13, 2018 7 Opinion Contact editor at: [email protected] Arabs should not be sending troops to Syria Published by Al Arab Publishing House Farouk Yousef Publisher The last thing Syria needs from the Arabs is a military and Group Executive Editor intervention, which would be useless. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD Editor-in-Chief f the Arabs hope to return tion, which would be useless. to Syria, which is natural, I The Arabs do not really need to Oussama Romdhani wish they would do it by not look for a role in saving Syria. sending troops there. That role is already there. Eve- Managing Editor The Syrian crisis does not rything on the ground is crying Iman Zayat need additional complicat- out for the return of Syria to its Iing factors and neither do the seat in the Arab League. Such a Deputy Managing Editor Arabs. If Arabs previously saw move would be like admitting and Online Editor it fit to abandon Syria to its fate, wronging the Syrians, who are Mamoon Alabbasi they will not be able to regain paying a heavy toll for crimes it by adding to the chaos in that they did not commit. Senior Editor devastated country. What was forgotten the day John Hendel Besides having to deal with the the crisis started between the evils of its own regime, Syria is Syrian regime and its oppo- Chief Copy Editor also a battleground for the con- nents was that the country is Richard Pretorius flicting interests of the Syrian op- not encapsulated in that regime position groups and their regional Enough weapons already. Military equipment handed over by Jaysh al-Islam and its opponents. Syria is the Copy Editor and international backers. fighters to the Syrian government forces in Al-Dumayr, last April. (AFP) political entity represented by Stephen Quillen The only Arab interest in Syria its Arab people who contrib- should be that it comes back to needs the wisdom and experi- It is crucial to Egypt to preserve uted so much to today’s Arab Analysis Section Editor the Arab fold. What goes on be- ence of the Arabs. It needs their its creative society and innova- nationalism. Ed Blanche tween the Syrian regime and its fidelity because what brought tive spirit after getting rid of the Readmitting Syria into the East/West Section Editor opponents is an internal Syrian Syria down was ingratitude, insanity of the Muslim Brother- political body representing matter. It has always been that scheming and meanness. No hood. the Arab world does not mean Mark Habeeb and still is. wonder it has become a haven for The Arabs need Syria perhaps overlooking the crimes against Gulf Section Editor The Syrians led to managing bloodthirsty terrorists and their much more than Syria needs humanity perpetrated there nor Mohammed Alkhereiji their own discord wisely and barbaric practices. them but the Iranians, Turks, does it imply that the Arabs are with the interests of the country The most important aspect of Russians and Americans don’t siding with one Syrian party Society and Travel at heart, which opened the gate the notion of the Arabs reclaim- like this equation. against the other. It means Sections Editor for foreign meddling. So, here we ing Syria is that the idea must Seeing that the Arabs were recognising the Syrian people’s Samar Kadi are witnessing Syria, government emerge from the Arabs’ need for in no hurry to intervene in the right to be represented in the and people, incapable of even Syria. When we recognise that, Syrian crisis, those parties rushed Arab world by their govern- Syria and Lebanon taking their own selfie. The fate we are on the right track to coun- in and caused the destruction of ment. It means that the Arabs Section Editor of Syria is no longer in the hands ter Iranian infiltration in Syria Syria and prevented the Arabs preserve their right to ask that Simon Speakman Cordall of its own children. and elsewhere in the Arab world. from playing a vital or effective government to account for its Syria does not need more A Syria free of Iranian presence role in deciding the Syrian crisis. mismanagement of the crisis. Contributing Editor troops. The number of armies, is crucial for the completion of The same scenario played out When the Arabs readmit Syria Rashmee Roshan Lall militias and gangs in Syria is Saudi Crown Prince Moham- in Iraq with the result that Iraq is in their midst, the Syrians will enough to raze ten countries. med bin Salman bin Abdulaziz’s no longer useful to anyone after recover a bit of their dignity and Senior Correspondents What Syria needs from Arabs project for a modern Saudi severing its Arab roots and with the Arabs will have a chance to Mahmud el-Shafey (London) is their empathy and company. Arabia. It is crucial to the United the state cut off from its citizens. play a constructive role in Syria. Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) Syria is alone. The state was dis- Arab Emirates to stay on its path The last thing Syria needs from mantled and citizens lost. Syria towards progress and modernity. the Arabs is a military interven- Farouk Yousef is an Iraqi writer. Regular Columnists Claude Salhani Yavuz Baydar Unisolationism: A new word and Correspondents Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) imagination reboot for Trump’s America Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Rashmee Roshan Lall Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Thomas Seibert (Washington) Trump’s Iran announcement is the latest manifestation of an ‘America Chief Designer First’ foreign policy, which is conducted in a unilateral way. Marwen el-Hmedi

omedians and “surprise” over the “ferocity” Trump’s new envoy to Germany, seriously the tail events that Designers unsmiling people with which Trump’s America is tweeted that “German com- we might otherwise have Ibrahim Ben Bechir alike are having a turning its back on multilateral panies doing business in Iran neglected.” Hanen Jebali fine time with US relations. should wind down operations Interestingly, the profes- President Donald Always a pragmatist, the Eu- immediately,” Germany’s former sor suggested that there were Trump’s unilat- ropean Commission president envoy to the United States and few “big negatives” politically Subscription & Advertising: Ceral withdrawal from the Iran told Belgium’s Flemish regional the United Kingdom, Wolfgang in losing dollar dominance [email protected] nuclear deal. It is the third mul- parliament that Washington “no Ischinger, responded with because the United States is Tel 020 3667 7249 tilateral agreement from which longer wants to cooperate with barely concealed anger: “Ric: “trying to play less of an influ- Trump-led America has reneged other parts in the world. At this my advice, after a long ambassa- ential geopolitical role.” in 16 months. The others were point, we have to replace the dorial career: explain your own Is it really? Is Trump’s Mohamed Al Mufti the Trans-Pacific Partnership United States, which as an inter- country’s policies and lobby the America trying to be less Marketing & Advertising and the Paris Climate Change national actor has lost vigour, host country — but never tell influential or just less con- Manager accord. and because of it, in the long the host country what to do, if sensual and more selfish? Accordingly, everyone is term, influence.” you want to stay out of trouble. Norbert Roettgen, chairman Tel (Main) +44 20 7602 3999 rebooting their imagination and Is this scarcely credible? That Germans are eager to listen but of the German parliament’s Direct: +44 20 8742 9262 peering at the indistinct outer Juncker, an old-school politician they will resent instructions.” Foreign Affairs Committee, www.alarab.co.uk limits of what was once thought who has never appeared much Meanwhile, Reza Marashi, an is clear that Trump’s Iran impossible. like an agent of change, should Iranian-American former official announcement is the latest Satirist Andy Borowitz raised be recommending the ultimate of the US State Department, said manifestation of “an ‘America a smile but not the world’s col- shake-up? It would have to be a Europe and the world beyond First’ foreign policy, which is lective eyebrow when he imag- big bang if it is to bring in a new the United States could pull its conducted in a unilateral way.” ined the biggest Trump pull-out world order. Could it happen? weight only if the dollar were Francois Delattre, France’s of them all. “Trump is consider- Can the United States be so eas- no longer the world’s premier ambassador to the United Na- ing pulling the United States out ily replaced? reserve currency. BBC Business tions, coined an English word of the United States Constitu- Not easily, not quickly and Editor Simon Jack relayed his to describe Trumpian foreign US Publisher: tion,” Borowitz dead-panned. perhaps not at all. However, it is impression of a growing realisa- policy — “unisolationism… He added that the American significant the notion is increas- tion in Europe, Asia and Russia a mix of unilateralism and Ibrahim Zobeidi president was “scathing in his ingly being voiced and distinctly that the basket of world curren- isolationism.” (248) 803 1946 remarks about the 229-year- heard in the babble that broke cies needs to hold more than the Others have deplored old document,” particularly out after the United States’ mighty greenback. Trump’s determination to the First Amendment, which withdrawal from the Iran deal. So far, so much hot air? After prove his word is his bond guarantees basic liberties such Consider the following: all, China and Russia have spent without caring that the United as freedom of speech. ● French Finance Minister nearly a decade dreaming up States’ word is no longer its “No one in his right mind Bruno Le Maire said it was “not largely futile strategic plans bond. The consequences, said would put something like that acceptable” any longer for the to unseat the US dollar as the Roettgen, may be significant. in a constitution,” Borowitz United States to play “economic globally dominant currency. “Reliability is a prerequisite imagined Trump complaining. policeman of the planet.” Trump may change calculations, for doing deals” but Trump “Russia doesn’t have it. North ● Britain’s Shadow Foreign as noted by Barry Eichengreen, has “put the reliability of the Korea doesn’t have it. All the Secretary Emily Thornberry said Berkeley economics professor United States into question. Al Arab Publishing House best countries don’t have it.” the Iran deal announcement and expert in global currency This will be a liability for the Quadrant Building It is a measure of our times confirms “that — as long as Don- systems. Eichengreen, whose future,” he said. 177-179 Hammersmith Road that Borowitz’s imaginative leap ald Trump remains president new book is on global currencies It would require another London W6 8BS came across as funny but not — we must get used to a world past, present and future, recent- imagination reboot. entirely weird. without American leadership.” ly said that until Trump’s elec- This is why Jean-Claude ● An unusually public spat tion he “attached quite a low Rashmee Roshan Lall is Juncker, the grumpy elder between US and German diplo- probability” to the approaching a columnist for The Arab Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 statesman of European politics, mats erupted over the Trump end of dollar dominance “but Weekly. Her blog can be found Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 sounded wholly unsurprised administration’s high-handed- I think with Trump’s election at www.rashmee.com and she even when he expressed ness. When Richard Grenell, we have had to consider more is on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 May 13, 2018 News & Analysis Israel Iran Tensions Syria strikes long prophesised but war not foretold

Simon Speakman Cordall Despite seeking to check Iran’s influence in the region, Israel has largely stayed on the sidelines of Tunis Syria’s war. However, as the con- flict has morphed from domestic he exchange of strikes be- civil war to a military competition tween Israel and Iran May between the world’s great powers, 10 had been a long time so, too, has the threat facing the T coming. However, the ex- Jewish state shifted. tent, or even possibility, of a major When Hezbollah entered the Syr- military escalation between the ian conflict in support of the Assad two countries is uncertain. regime in 2012, there appeared lit- That a flare-up in hostilities tle chance the militia would gain between Israel and Iran was ex- anything other than a bloody nose. pected in Syria had been no secret. Six years later, Damascus’s control Israel had distributed satellite im- over much of Syria has been large- ages of what it claimed were Irani- ly restored and Hezbollah, despite an positions in southern Syria for losses thought to number in the months. Western journalists had thousands, emerged as one of the been briefed by Israeli officials on most lethal forces in the conflict. Iran’s encroachment on its north- Iranian Major-General Yahya Ra- ern border for most of the year. him Safavi told the Iranian news Nevertheless, Iranian forces and agency Mehr in February: “The their allies within the Lebanese Lebanese Hezbollah, which was militia Hezbollah continued to an asymmetric fighting force, has mass in southern Syria, threaten- transformed itself, with its fight- ing to strike Israel. ing in Syria, into a powerful regular army that can defend Lebanon and its people against the Zionists, as Despite seeking to well as the [IRGC].” check Iran’s influence in Despite the threat Hezbollah and the region, Israel has the IRGC pose, the balance of pow- largely stayed on the er, certainly in terms of military sidelines of Syria’s war. strength and diplomatic pull, lies with Tel Aviv. Despite what Israel has admit- Iran, weakened economically at ted were “hundreds” of strikes on home with the rial in free fall and Iranian positions in Syria, Tehran limited diplomatically as it scram- did not respond. That changed bles to save what it can of the nu- May 10, with Israel claiming, in clear deal following the US with- an account disputed by Tehran drawal, is ill-placed to confront and Damascus, that Iran’s Islamic Israel directly. Regionally, too, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) finds itself isolated. launched approximately 20 rock- Perhaps the best hope for Iran ets from Syrian territory into the saving gains it made in Syria is in Golan. the intervention by Russia. Mos- In response, Israel deployed cow has long enjoyed solid rela- the greatest mass of its firepower tions with Tel Aviv, with many in Syria since the 1973 war and Russian Jews in prominent posi- claimed to have destroyed “nearly tions in the Israeli hierarchy. Like- all” of Iran’s military infrastruc- wise, the Kremlin has a strong ture there. working relationship with Tehran Regardless of who fired first, the through its joint support of the As- trigger appears to have been US sad regime. Tass news agency: “We have es- Though aware of its weakened it will do so again remains a matter President Donald Trump’s with- That Russia appeared ready to tablished contacts with all par- position, much of Iran’s and Hez- of speculation. drawal from the Joint Comprehen- play the honest broker was indi- ties and we call for restraint from bollah’s identites are rooted in sive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nu- cated the morning of the strike. all parties. It’s very worrying and their resistance to Israel. Tehran Simon Speakman Cordall is clear agreement with Iran, a move Russian Deputy Foreign Minister a source of concern. We have to has proven itself capable of choos- Syria/Lebanon section editor aggressively lobbied for by Israel. Mikhail Bogdanov told Russia’s work to ease the tension.” ing the time of its fights. Whether with The Arab Weekly. Viewpoint Iran’s anti-Israel bluster is getting old

t should come as no surprise against Palestinians in Syria cer- to most but Iran has made yet tainly does not make Iran a friend Tallha another threat to annihilate of Palestinian rights. Abdulrazaq Israel, this time promising Look at Iran’s history since to destroy the Jewish state Khomeini instituted his radi- within 25 years. cal Shia Islamist regime. While IIn a not-so-shocking statement, he and his cronies swore bloody the head of Iran’s Army, Major- death and mayhem against Israel General Abdolrahim Mousavi, in public, in private they had no said during a ceremony in April in qualms about sharing intelligence Tehran that his country’s military with Tel Aviv about Iraq’s nuclear had its “hands on the trigger and research facility that the Israeli missiles are ready and will be Air Force bombed during Op- launched at any moment,” Iran’s eration Opera in 1981. They also Tasnim News Agency reported. raised no complaints when Israel His comments came after Iranian facilitated mass arms transfers Brigadier-General Hossein Salami to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, threatened Israel’s “annihilation” which lasted for most of the 1980s, and promised that his country in the United States’ infamous would make Israel “fade away” in Iran-Contra scandal. the next 25 years. It is surprising to see people No longer taken seriously. An Iranian man rides his bicycle across Considering US President Don- falling for Iran’s theatrics and a reproduction of an Israeli flag painted on a street in Tehran. (AFP) ald Trump’s scrapping of the dis- its lies that manipulate and take astrously flawed Iranian nuclear advantage of the Palestinians’ deal following intense Israeli lob- Since its foundation under Aya- propaganda stunt that has fooled legitimate struggle for self-deter- bying, such comments out of Iran tollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, most of the Islamic world at one mination. might be considered fighting talk. the Islamic Republic of Iran has point or another. Iran’s record is easy for anyone Tehran is, after all, quite keen on been threatening to destroy Israel Iran’s charade is far from the to see and that record is replete rehabilitating itself into interna- and Zionism and to liberate the truth. How else would one explain with examples of Tehran ordering tional markets, while pursuing Palestinian territories. Khomeini the continuous Iran-sponsored the death or betrayal of Palestin- its expansionist agenda in Syria, even instituted “al-Quds Day,” an attacks against Palestinian refu- ians while collaborating with How else would Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. annual protest of the Israeli occu- gees in places such as Yarmouk in Israel throughout the Khomeinist one explain the However, it is clear from history pation of Palestinian territory. Syria? Or the fact that Iran-backed rule in Iran. that Iran often uses bombastic This all seems very pro-Pales- Shia jihadists stormed Palestinian After decades of bluster, Iran continuous and inflammatory rhetoric to tinian but it is a smokescreen. refugee camps in Iraq, accused has done nothing but talk and Iran-sponsored shore up its supporters both in Iran uses symbolic gestures and them of being Saddamists and people are starting to wake up to attacks against Iran and in the wider Arab world, threats against Israel to ingrati- killed, tortured and persecuted the fact that the mullah regime who see Israel and the United ate itself with the Arab and wider them? does not care one jot for Palestine. Palestinian States as aggressors. Simultane- Muslim public who see Israeli Getting morally skewed Pal- refugees in places ously, Iran is happy to cut deals violations of Palestinian rights estinian militant groups such Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher with the United States and — you and are incensed. Tehran paints as Hamas to disgracefully sing at the University of Exeter’s such as Yarmouk guessed it — the “Zionist enemy” itself as a defender of Palestin- Iran’s praises while Tehran inflicts Strategy and Security Institute in in Syria? Israel. ian rights and the Holy Land in a a strategy of mass starvation England. May 13, 2018 9 News & Analysis Yemen Tariq Saleh’s forces create new reality on the ground in Yemen

Saleh Baidhani A victory by the Guardians of the Republic and allied forces in Hudaydah would also send a Sana’a strong message to the Houthis, Iran and the international circles emeni National Resistance concerned that a military solution Forces recorded a series in Yemen is possible. of quick victories that Saudi military expert General Y moved them near the stra- Hasan al-Shehri said changes in tegic port of Hudaydah. the mood of the international The speed of the advance by the community favour a victory in Hu- Guardians of the Republic led by daydah. Previously, the interna- Tariq Saleh stunned the interna- tional community had pressured tionally recognised government coalition forces to leave the port in of President Abd Rabbo Mansour the hands of the Houthis. Hadi and the Islamist Al-Islah par- ty. Al-Islah began a media campaign Saleh’s fighting experience against countries that are part of will play a major role in the Arab coalition, the United Arab upcoming events. Emirates in particular, apparently hoping to divert public attention from the failure of the war. Shehri said a second factor re- Sources said the conflict Al-Islah garding Hudaydah was Saleh, who Party created with the UAE regard- is “known for his ability to inspire ing Socotra was to cover the differ- his troops and his great military ence in results between Saleh and expertise in addition to his reli- Yemeni Vice-President Ali Mohsen ance on the skills of the special Saleh al-Ahmar. forces.” The sources indicated that the Yemeni political researcher Arab coalition had supported Fares al-Bayl said victories on the Saleh after becoming convinced western coast of Yemen show the that Yemen’s political parties were ability of the Resistance Forces not keen on carrying on the war and their allies to score quick vic- in an effective manner. The coali- tories and that it is possible to de- tion also suspected there had been feat the Houthi militias with the communications between those execution of well-drawn plans. parties and Houthi rebels. Bayl said there is a determina- The Yemeni National Resistance tion to break lines hindering the Forces, along with the Giants’ Bri- liberation of Hudaydah and the gades and the Tihama Resistance rest of the western coast. Saleh’s Brigades, prepared for a push to forces and their allies have liberat- liberate Hudaydah. The port at ed and secured vast parts of south- Hudaydah is suspected of being western Yemen, including Mocha. used to smuggle weapons from Najib Ghallab, the director of Al Iran to the Houthis. Jazeera Centre for Strategic Stud- ies, said Saleh’s forces “are spe- cial and professional, given their background and experience in the The speed of the advance Guardians of the Republic, Anti- by the Republican Guards Terrorist Brigades and the Special led by Tariq Saleh Forces. They are highly motivated stunned the Hadi and their morale is high.” Bayl said Saleh’s fighting ex- government and the perience will play a major role in Islamist Al-Islah party. upcoming events. He is strong- willed and experienced, Bayl said, and knows the Houthis and their Military experts said the fight methods. That has led him to in- for Hudaydah should be brief and troduce new fighting techniques swift, like Saleh’s previous battles. in training the National Resistance They said liberating Hudaydah Forces. would restore security to naviga- tion in the area and end smuggling Saleh Baidhani is an Arab Weekly operations from Iran. contributor in Sana’a. Quick victories. Tariq Saleh, commander of Yemen’s Republican Guards. (Reuters) UAE defends deployment in Yemen’s Socotra

The Arab Weekly staff has been part of the Saudi-led coali- the people of the island,” the UAE to statements made by Yemeni Twitter account. tion fighting the Iran-allied Houthi Foreign Ministry said, adding that Prime Minister Ahmed Obeid bin The Emirati statement referenced rebels in Yemen. its military presence “comes within Dagher, known for his affiliation the turbulent relationship between London “The UAE plays a parallel role the efforts of the Arab coalition to with the Yemeni branch of the Mus- it and the internationally recog- in the Yemeni island of Socotra to support the legitimacy at this criti- lim Brotherhood, known as Al-Islah nised government led by Yemeni ensions between the United maintain security and stability, sup- cal stage in the history of Yemen.” party, which the UAE said is behind President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi Arab Emirates and elements port development projects and help The Emirates was replying the dispute related to its presence in over his support of Al-Islah party of the internationally recog- Socotra. while periodically clashing with the T nised government of Yemen The UAE accused the Muslim UAE-supported Southern Transi- flared over the latter’s accusations Brotherhood of “instigating such tional Council (STC). that the UAE deployed forces on a malignant media campaigns against Yemeni island without consent. the UAE and its integral role in es- The contention relates to Socotra, tablishing peace and security and Hundreds of UAE troops a UNESCO World Heritage Site with restoring legitimacy to Yemen.” were deployed to Socotra a population of 60,000 in the Ara- “Such heinous campaigns led by island on April 30. bian Sea. Hundreds of UAE troops Muslim Brotherhood in relation to were deployed to the island on April the Socotra Island fit within a long “Currently, the main centre of in- 30. and recurring scenario to distort the fluence within the Yemeni govern- “The recent military measures by image of the UAE and its efficient ment is indeed the Muslim Broth- the UAE forces in the island of So- contribution to the Arab coalition erhood movement and periodically cotra are unjustifiable,” a statement efforts against the coup perpetra- it likes to trigger these side battles by the Yemeni government said. tors led by Houthi militias,” the with the dominant political forces “The situation on the island today, ministry added. in the south, and sometimes the after the takeover of the airport and “We have historic and Arab alliance fighting in its favour,” harbour, reflects the state of disa- family links with the resi- STC spokesman Salem Thabet al- greement between the legitimate dents of Socotra and we Awlaki said. government and the brothers in the will back them during “The motivation behind this is a UAE.” Yemen’s ordeal, which was quest for domination and to contin- It labelled the dispute an issue sparked by the Houthis,” ue their quest for influence as they of national sovereignty and asked UAE Foreign Minister Anwar have always tried in the last quarter Saudi Arabia to intervene. The UAE A map locating Socotra island in Yemen. Gargash posted on his official century.” 10 May 13, 2018 News & Analysis Iraq Iraqis vote for new electoral lists led by old candidates

Mamoon Alabbasi

London

raqis headed to the polls May 12 to vote in parliamentary elections in which most can- I didates have long been in the country’s political domain despite an apparent public yearning for change. What is different about these elections, the fourth since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, however, is that many of the country’s dominant political parties have undergone divisions that led to new electoral lists be- ing formed. Dawa Party comrades Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Vice- President Nuri al-Maliki head separate and viciously competing Shia-dominated lists: the Victory Alliance and State of Law, respec- tively. Abadi has sought to woo a cross- sectarian and multi-ethnic voter base but he and Maliki, a former prime minister, will still be com- peting in the same pool of Shia electorates. A third competitor for that pool is Hadi al-Amiri, a former militia leader who heads the Conquest Alliance list, known for its affili- ation to the Popular Mobilisation Forces. Amiri is not a novice to Iraqi politics. He served as minister of Challenges and hopes. A member of Kurdish peshmerga casts her vote at a polling station two days before polls open to the public in transportation in Maliki’s gov- Erbil, on May 10. (Reuters) ernment and he is the head of the Badr Organisation, a political party but formerly was the mili- election, insisting that he will only President Iyad Allawi. There are Barzani family, and the Patriotic government. tary wing of the Islamic Supreme support new faces. However, most also smaller Sunni-led lists com- Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which Many Kurdish voters who say Council of Iraq (ISCI). of the future MPs of the Marchers peting for votes in local areas. is affiliated with the Talabani fam- they are fed up with the long- The ISCI had a major breakup Alliance are expected to follow Nujaifi served as minister of in- ily. running dominance of the KRG by when its leader, Ammar al-Hakim, the directions of Sadr, who him- dustry and speaker of parliament The main opposition party to the KDP and PUK are pinning their decided in 2017 form a new politi- self has been an influential part and Allawi has been prime minis- the KDP and PUK was the Gorran hopes on Salih to improve their cal party — the National Wisdom of Iraq’s political landscape since ter. Their candidacies, along with (Change) Movement and Kurdis- lives and end rampant corruption Movement — in a bid to appeal to 2003. Maliki’s, mean that each of Iraq’s tan Islamic Group (Komal) but new but it remains unclear how much younger Shia voters. The devel- There are reports that Sadr may three vice-presidents is heading parties have since been formed: of a change can be brought about opment pits former ISCI affiliates recommend the governor of Iraq’s an election list. the New Generation Movement, by the CDJ leader who was part of against each other in this election. Maysan province, Ali Dawai, who In Iraq’s Kurdistan region, the led by businessman Shaswar Ab- the KRG and central government. Influential Shia cleric Muqtada is not running in the parliamen- two dominant parties remain — dulwahid; and the Coalition for While many election campaigns al-Sadr has given his backing to tary elections, for prime minister. the Kurdistan Democratic Party Democracy and Justice (CDJ), across Iraq are promising a new the Marchers Alliance, comprised Dawai is very popular in his prov- (KDP), which is affiliated with the led by veteran politician Barham era of anti-corruption, the politi- mainly of his supporters and the ince because of improvements in Salih. cians themselves are often part Iraqi Communist Party, and led by services there. Both Gorran and the CDJ have and parcel of the establishment Hassan al-Aqouli, a medical doctor Most Sunni votes are likely Abadi has sought to woo a split from the PUK and Salih that they seek to change. who has not held political office. to be divided between the Iraqi cross-sectarian voter base previously served as prime min- Sadr banned members of his Decision Alliance, led by Vice- but he and Maliki will still ister of the Kurdistan Regional Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy al-Ahrar Bloc in parliament, who President Osama al-Nujaifi, and be competing in the same Government (KRG) and as a dep- Managing Editor and Online hold 40 seats, from running in this the National Alliance, led by Vice- pool of Shia electorates. uty prime minister in the federal Editor of The Arab Weekly. Viewpoint Russia may replace and eclipse US role in Iraq

ussia’s outreach across expansion of Russia’s naval bases intervening power as the saviour foreign policy interests change,” the Middle East, which continues in the eastern Mediter- the region needs. The same is true Demarais argues. includes warming ties ranean, as well as increases of its about US coverage. The Islamic State (ISIS) still Nazli Tarzi with the Gulf Coop- airbases in Syria and along the What fewer analysts take note comes into play, despite having eration Council and border it shares with Iraq. of is how tit-for-tat reactions and suffered major setbacks. Egypt, has extended Baghdad is looking towards Rus- bluster form the base of Russia’s As Stanislav Ivanov of the Insti- Rbeyond its traditional ally Syria and sia for air support, weapons and and the United States’ reverse tute of World Economy and Inter- into Iraq. It could, analysts said, oil deals. The expanding sphere of romance and, above all else, national Relations and the Institute provide an alternative to the mili- Russian influence provides Bagh- reinforce stereotypes of the United of Oriental Studies of the Russian tary support from the United States dad some of the assurances that States as weaker and Russia as the Academy of Sciences argued “ISIS on which Iraq has long relied. the United States may discontinue alternative. is increasingly pointing its propa- As major combat operations depending on the outcome of Russia is adopting moves exer- ganda apparatus at Russia,” its grind to a halt, the United States’ Iraq’s parliamentary elections. cised by its regional predecessor, newest great enemy. Ivanov said land operations centre has closed The United States has tried to winning contracts, ushering in ISIS’s intended audience is bigger and the deployment in Iraq of the deter Russia’s military spending giant state oil firms and mercenar- than Russian security services. 5,000 US troops commanded by US as another alternative to curbing ies and accelerating the arms race It sends a louder message to any Army Major-General Walter Piatt its aggression in territories where by selling weaponry. Iraq recently actor interested in protecting the remains uncertain. Should a hasty US stakes are high. Renewed calls purchased the Russian S‑400 nation-state system in a region withdrawal occur, the predictable for tougher measures to counter air defence missile systems and where injustices prevail. move, analysts said, would be for Putin’s expansionist programme other energy sector equipment. Many observers applauded Rus- Russia to fill any void? were heard in the US Senate Armed Although its optimism is tempered sia for “saving” the Syrian regime. The winning card that has al- Services Committee. with caution, Putin is aware of the The argument overstates the lowed Russian President Vladimir The Pentagon approved an adversarial costs of investing in hand Russia will have in shaping Putin to reassert Russia’s military additional $4.6 million to bolster times of uncertainty. the political phase in the region and economic supremacy is the security along Europe’s eastern “Single trade and investment and ignores state fragility in Syria political desperation exhibited flank. Prohibitions on its direct deals… with no strings attached and neighbouring Iraq and ISIS’s by his regional allies. This was cooperation with the Russian for Russia” has been one method captivity. noted and capitalised on early in military were extended. The US adopted to mitigate potential costs, Dialogue will not unlock the As the Iraq-US Syria’s conflict. Propping up Syrian Senate shifted its sights towards a economist Agathe Demarais wrote next phase for the region’s political alliance breaks President Bashar Assad gave Russia strategy of deterrence on land and in the London School of Economics cast of foreign actors as much as apart, Baghdad is its mandate and little successes to in cyberspace, alongside asphyxi- Middle East Centre blog. Transac- consent between the United States prevent its overseas adventures ating sanctions and efforts to react tions and opportunities best sum- and Russia if nothing else. looking towards have been scored by the United to global public opinion in the war marise the Russian approach. Russia for air States or others. of words. “Contrary to the US and Western Nazli Tarzi is an independent The United States’ use of sanc- Narratives, promoted to blunt countries, which have several mili- journalist whose writings and films support, weapons tions and isolation fell short of criticism of Russia’s hegemonic tary bases in the region… Russia focus on Iraq’s ancient history and and oil deals. its objective to isolate Putin. The growth, reinvent the image of an could withdraw quickly should its contemporary political scene. May 13, 2018 11 News & Analysis Syria In Syria, the victors are moulding populations to their own designs

James Snell story has no positive side. Afrin, a canton in northern Alep- po province recently captured Cambridge from the Kurdish People’s Protec- tion Units, the armed wing of the he regime of Bashar Assad Democratic Union Party, by a com- in Syria has made dispos- bined force of Turkish forces and session and depopula- Free Syrian Army-aligned rebel T tion potent weapons. The groups, has seen its own dispos- regime’s war effort is a series of sessions. encirclements, sieges and surren- The Afrin campaign and the re- ders. gime’s liquidation of Eastern Gh- As loyalist forces overcome en- outa are not comparable, though claves of opposition, non-combat- some commentators disingenu- ants are encouraged or induced ously linked the two. Fewer civil- to flee. Those who remain after ians lost their lives in Afrin by more defenders capitulated face move- than a factor of ten; in Afrin, there ment of another kind: They are was no recourse, on the Turkish bused cross-country to areas out- side, to the use of chemical weap- side the regime’s control. ons; Afrin city, when it fell, did not Those people lose their homes bear witness to a bloodbath. and have connections between The fates of the two regions are their new and former lives sev- linked directly, however. Many of ered. They likely have few pos- Afrin’s civilians fled and those in sessions left. While they arrive in charge in Afrin are making a point already crowded provinces, their of giving the homes of dispos- former homes are often unused. sessed locals to new arrivals from Towns and cities formerly under Eastern Ghouta and other besieged siege lie empty, an odd hush per- areas such as East Qalamoun. vading their streets. This fixes Afrin and Ghouta to- gether in the minds of observers. Dispossessed. An elderly woman carries a bag on her head in Manbej in Aleppo countryside, on It is incumbent on those in power May 10. (Reuters) The Assad regime’s war in Afrin to act with consideration; effort is a series of it is in their interest not only to encirclements, sieges and avoid comparison to the behav- fearful of the consequences even the property registry, Syrians must return to their homes and who surrenders. iour of the regime but actively to innocent acceptance might set in prove their ownership or occupa- have been consciously prevented repudiate its treatment of those place. tion of their homes within 30 days from doing so. Given what they have suffered, from Ghouta. The Turkish and FSA policy, or risk confiscation. For the Turkish and rebel forc- it would be easy to be buoyed by Giving the homes of fleeing therefore, fails to solve the prob- Because millions of Syrians — es in Afrin to house these people the story that former residents of Kurds to those who have fled Gh- lem it purports to answer and it mainly Sunni Arabs — have fled only at the expense of fleeing or Eastern Ghouta — a suburb of Da- outa is no solution to either prob- makes a mockery of all pretence of from Syria or suffered internal dispossessed locals demonstrates mascus that held out under siege lem. Not only have Turkish and acting in the best interests of those displacement, they are unable to the extreme perversity and cruel- from the regime for years before Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces be- without. claim their property. The regime’s ty present in the Syrian war, where succumbing to aerial bombard- come party to ethnic cleansing but It is difficult not to hear echoes policy is correctly seen, in tandem essential human rights are seen as ment, chemical attack and a full- they have irreducibly tied sectari- of the regime in such a blatant act with other methods of forced req- zero-sum and where having a roof scale occupation — have been put an resettlement together with aid- of ethnic favouritism. uisition, to represent a sectarian over one’s head is a political mat- in line for housing in the district ing Arab refugees from Ghouta and Last month, the regime institut- attempt to dispossess and purge ter, something others will likely to which they were forcibly trans- other places. Some refugees have ed Law No. 10, a measure designed the regime’s enemies. have suffered to lose. ported. refused the offered homes, unwill- to punish “absentees.” It holds Those enemies include the peo- Unfortunately, however, this ing to be party to such things and that, to comply with a change to ple of Eastern Ghouta who cannot James Snell is a British journalist. Viewpoint Here’s why we all misjudged the Syrian uprising and war

hen Egyptian ticularly adept at silencing dissent Fading hopes. President Hosni (although it is certainly that) or be- A rebel fighter Mubarak was cause of Russian help but because holds his Stephen Starr unseated in rebel groups and political elements weapon as February 2011, failed to unite during the initial he smokes a no one in Syria, months of the conflict. cigarette on Wnot long-serving diplomats nor In 2012, it seemed as though the outskirts observers on the ground, thought every week had a new brigade or of the northern the unrest would spread there. Sure rebel group announcing itself on Syrian town enough, soon thereafter the wheels YouTube. The videos were much of al-Bab, last of the peaceful Syrian revolution the same: men in military fatigues year. (Reuters) started to turn, proving the most hastily reading from a script to the experienced experts wrong. camera. They promised to take As rebel groups around Syria the fight to the illegitimate Assad formed their own small fiefdoms, regime and establish a democratic experts rushed to eulogise Bashar Syria. Behind them would hang a Assad’s rule. Then, particularly banner depicting the “Free Falcons following the killing and injuring of of Hama Countryside” or some such leading regime figures in a Damas- name of a rebel group. cus bombing in July 2012, there Thereafter, some rebel groups did was an undeniable sense, even an establish alliances but these did not cally about Middle Eastern tribes ing violent dictatorships, particu- expectation, that what happened last the heat of battle against better- and local alliances. However, the larly one that, in Syria’s case, is so in North Africa would be replicated equipped regime forces. Almost cold, hard truth is that the multi- deeply ingrained in the state? There in Syria. That, too, proved to be all rebel groups drew fighters from tude of local rebel groups never is evidence to support this unfortu- wrong. We now know that the revo- their own families and tribes. As we aligned. They were, it seems, only nate case. lution has failed. know, that, too, proved a failure. interested in controlling their local In this context, what’s happened Since the experts failed to antici- A 2013 analysis published by the areas, not in taking the battle to in Tunisia since 2011 has been pate the two U-turns that shaped Jamestown Foundation sought Damascus. nothing short of a miracle. It is no the course of modern Syrian histo- to shed light on where the tribal What we can determine, with the value judgment to claim Tunisia ry, what have we learned since? The element sat within the conflict. rebellion in ashes, is that tribal al- has succeeded precisely because its first conclusion is that experts are, “Tribalism is a socio-cultural fact liances trumped any desire to estab- citizens foster a stronger national in fact, no such thing. The second is throughout Syria, not just in the lish a unified, nationwide military identity than a tribal one. that watching hyperbolic network less developed eastern governorates force capable of defeating the Assad What’s clear is that when tribal news skewed our understanding of of the country. It is an important regime. Rebel groups failed to get and national identities are pitted When tribal and the reality and complexity of events form of traditional civil society that together because, even at a familial against each other in Syria, the national identities in individual Syrian towns and will help determine the success of level, divisions abound. Clans former wins out. That’s why the districts. This doesn’t explain, how- local or foreign-supported security within tribes and families within revolt failed. are pitted against ever, why most observers, myself arrangements.” Pertinent words, clans regularly stood on opposing each other in included, failed to see the regime indeed. sides of the revolution. Stephen Starr is the author of holding out. It’s shaky ground, almost an Does this mean that Syria and “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to the Syria, the former In retrospect, the Assad regime advert for an Edward Said treatise, other Middle Eastern societies are Uprising” and has lived in Syria and wins out. endured not because it is par- when Western observers wax lyri- less likely to succeed in overthrow- Turkey since 2007. 12 May 13, 2018 Spotlight Elections in Tunisia

What to know about Tunisia’s municipal elections

Lamine Ghanmi

Who won what Independent candidates won 32.2% of the vote in Tunisia’s mu- nicipal elections, results released by the independent elections commission stated. The breakthrough for the in- dependents in the vote May 6 is considered a sign of frustrations of the populace and civic activists about the performance of the rul- ing elites since 2011. The independents’ strong showing, however, is unlikely to translate into important roles in running the country’s 350 munici- palities. Independents are divided by ideological backgrounds and municipal agenda. They range from radical Salafists to liberals and former communists. Bargaining has begun among political parties to build alliances or point out differences ahead of next year’s parliamentary and presidential elections. Islamist Ennahda, which won 28.6% of the vote, came first in 155 of the country’s contested 350 municipalities. It finished ahead of secularist ally Nidaa Tounes (20.8%).

Vote surprises Former interim President Mon- cef Marzouki’s populist Al-Irada Saving Nidaa Tounes. Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi greets people upon his arrival to cast his vote at a polling station in Soukra, party received 1.3% of the vote (AFP) on May 6. belittling Marzouki’s claims that his party is the alternative to En- nahda and Nidaa Tounes to lead the country in 2019 and revive the Tunisia’s municipal elections “revolutionary spirit” of the “Arab spring.” The Democratic Current, found- ed by Marzouki’s former ally and former rights activist Mohamed raise questions about future Abbou, won 4.9% of the vote ahead of the Popular Front, an al- liance of a dozen of leftist and na- of secular-Islamist entente tionalists groups, with 3.9%. Gender parity The elections were the first test Lamine Ghanmi electorate made a difference in the uation that had so affected the grim without Caid Essebsi’s decisive in- of the gender parity provision in municipal elections essentially be- mood of the voters. volvement to strengthen the party’s municipal elections. cause of the low overall voter turn- It is unlikely the government will organisation ahead of elections next Vote results showed that 47.5% he results of Tunisia’s mu- out (35%), a scenario that is unlikely be able to carry out reforms to trim year, Nidaa Tounes could follow the of those elected are women. nicipal elections unsettled to be repeated in 2019’s legislative a 15.5% jobless rate, a 7.7% inflation path of two other secular parties However, only 29.5% of the lists the complacency of the and presidential elections. rate and the steep decline of the Tu- with once-promising futures that headed by women were success- T leading secularist party, The low turnout, itself, was the nisian currency before next year’s did not survive their alliances with ful compared to 70.3% for men, Nidaa Tounes, and its liberal allies result of the widespread frustration general election. Ennahda. slimming the chances of women regarding their ability to keep the about both the Islamists and Nidaa “Politicians went so far in mar- The centre-left Democratic Forum to take top positions in leading the political initiative while maintain- Tounes. ginalising the citizens and ignoring for Labour and Liberties, known as municipalities. ing their de facto alliance with Is- “The results of the municipal their big and small dreams. They Ettakatol, was weakened to near ex- lamist Ennahda Movement. elections reflected the failure of the got a thundering slap from the vot- tinction after failing to win a single Youth factor The elections May 6 recalled the alliance between Nidaa Tounes and ers who stayed away of the polling seat in the parliamentary elections More than 63% of the candi- 2014 legislative vote in which En- Ennahda. Both parties lost a huge stations and delivered a low turn- 2014 and in municipal elections in dates aged 35-45 won seats even nahda won despite losing. The Is- part of their electorate,” said Uni- out,” said Abdelhamid Riahi, editor- 2018 after its alliance in the 2011-13 though most young Tunisian vot- lamists suddenly became the lead- versity of Tunis instructors Cherif in-chief of the Al Chourouk daily government. ers stayed away from the ballots. ing party in parliament after Nidaa Ferjani and Mohamed Khemissi in newspaper. The left-wing Congress for the More than a third of those who Tounes, founded by Tunisian Presi- an analysis of the vote. “It is a resounding message of Republic, led by then-interim Presi- won seats were under the age of dent Beji Caid Essebsi, splintered voters’ apathy. Will this message get dent Moncef Marzouki, disappeared 35. over ties to Islamists and personali- satisfying answers before it is too from the landscape after its pact The elections law imposed quo- ty clashes. The result was that Nidaa Some within Nidaa Tounes late?” he asked. with Ennahda. It was replaced by tas for youth to lure younger voic- Tounes was no longer the leading Another factor in the election re- Al-Irada, a populist formation that es to politics. parliamentary bloc. said they hoped for bold sults was the strong showing of in- managed only 1% of the vote in the A similar scenario seems to have decisions, including a full dependents, who came first in the municipal polls. Turnout unfolded in 2018 as Ennahda fin- reorganisation of the party polls clinching about one-third of Sources said Nidaa Tounes is The voter turnout was 35.6%, ished ahead of Nidaa Tounes in and reunification of its the votes. Nidaa Tounes analysts aware of the risks ahead. Soul the lowest in seven years when most municipal councils. Expecta- ranks. said the majority of independent searching within the party since Tunisia had already had three tions had been for the opposite to voters were much closer politically the elections has been focused on elections with much higher turn- happen. to their party than to the Islamists cementing its fractured leadership out rates. Secularist politicians fear Ennah- However, the secularist party lost and that the choice of mayors will and on addressing the confusion The highest rate in the munici- da could use the momentum of the much more in terms of potential eventually reflect that. among its rank and file. pal elections was at el Masdour municipal elections to win the gen- voter support. Nidaa Tounes saw All eyes are now turned to Caid Some within Nidaa Tounes said Menzel Harb in the coastal region eral elections next year. the numbers of its voters fall from Essebsi in the hope he would give they hoped for bold decisions, in- of Monastir with 69% and the low- “Today, all minds are focused 1.3 million in 2014 to some 300,000 the political class, especially secu- cluding a full reorganisation of the est in the Ettadhamen working- on the 2019 parliamentary and in the municipal ballots of 2018 larists, a wake-up jolt. He might, in party and reunification of its ranks. class district in Tunis at 18.46%. presidential elections and the tri- while Ennahda lost almost 500,000 fact, have to push the cadres of the Ennahda’s leaders insist that alli- Monastir is the hometown of umph of Ennahda in them is not a voters from its 941,000 votes in party he founded towards re-exam- ances with secularists are crucial for Tunisia’s modern founder, late far-fetched assumption,” said Zied 2014, they said. ining their discredited ways to avoid the party to survive. They are there- President Habib Bourguiba. Et- Krichen, a noted columnist and ex- According to an opinion poll ballot box failures in 2019. fore unlikely to relinquish their ties tadhamen is the area from where pert on Islamism in Tunisia. “If that published by the Tunisian daily Le “President [Caid Essebsi] is well to Nidaa Tounes. most feared Islamic State fighters happens that will prove the failure Maghreb, 70% of voters who cast aware that he is at crossroads and “We are aware that, as Islamists, in Syria’s Raqqa hailed. of the ruling elites that had won in their ballots for Ennahdha in 2014 that he should take bold and painful we are not welcome in the Maghreb 2014, including President Beji Caid voted again for the Islamist party in decisions. The question is whether and are rejected in the Arab region What’s next Essebsi, who beat the Islamists and the municipal elections. Only 42% he will rise to the challenge or limit and we do not have support and ac- Observers will watch whether their allies by taking a path fully dif- of Nidaa’s supporters did. himself to the attempt of plugging ceptance in the rest of the world,” squabbling about who gains top ferent of them.” The general disillusionment of the hole in the leaking boat,” said said Ennahda official Lassaad Jou- positions in the municipal boards Tunisia political analysts said the public had to do with the per- Krichen. hari. exacerbates underlying tensions Ennahda’s May 6 outcome has not ceived poor performance of succes- Nidaa Tounes officials said their For Nidaa Tounes, the challenge, between Nidaa Tounes and En- been put into proper context. Wari- sive governments and the deterio- party is the main counterweight to now, is how to regain the driver’s nahda. Expected litigation over ness about Ennahda’s sweeping rating quality of life in the country. Ennahda on Tunisia’s democratic seat in Tunisian elctoral politics. electoral abuse allegations is not victories next year might be in fact Analysts said there is no indication path, a type of balance that made expected to change much of the exaggerated for several reasons. ruling elites would be able to turn the political transition a success. Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly results. The Islamist party’s disciplined around the economic and social sit- Observers, however, said that correspondent in Tunis. May 13, 2018 13 Spotlight Elections in Lebanon Hezbollah’s electoral ascendancy risks pulling Lebanon further into Syria’s morass

Simon Speakman Cordall

Tunis

he victory of the Hezbol- lah-aligned political bloc in the Lebanese elections, T along with the US with- drawal from the Iranian nuclear deal, opened a potentially volatile chapter in Lebanese history. Despite the lacklustre turnout of 49% following a 9-year gap be- tween elections in which the parlia- ment twice extended its mandate, Hezbollah only made fractional gains in the vote. However, its al- lies within the Christian Free Patri- otic Movement made dramatic ad- vances, claiming 29 of the 128 seats and establishing the group as the largest single bloc in parliament. Emboldened domestically, Hez- bollah looks to build on a foreign policy that has it enmeshed in the Syrian conflict. After years of flout- ing Lebanon’s public policy of dis- association from the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah, through its part- nership with Iran, has placed Leba- non in danger of being subsumed in the war and has positioned the Hubris aloft. country at the forefront of a poten- A supporter of tially greater regional conflict. Lebanon’s Hez- The only check on Hezbollah’s bollah gestures ambitions lies with the right-wing as he holds a Christian Lebanese Forces, whose Hezbollah flag dramatic gains were only eclipsed in Marjayoun, by the reversals suffered by Prime on May 7. Minister Saad Hariri’s Sunni Future (Reuters) Movement. With Hezbollah and its aligned the United States does not create a been our approach for a while: Hez- will now prove harder to resist. move is Hariri, whose father, Rafik groups in the ascendant, Lebanon’s comprehensive strategy for ending bollah = Lebanon.” “With the Lebanese parliament Hariri, is suspected of being as- relations with Israel assume a more the conflict there.” “The state of Israel will not dis- dominated by figures close to the sassinated on Damascus’s orders. ominous tone, a situation made Following the strikes of May tinguish between the sovereign Assad regime, it is expected that However, “Hariri has emerged as more perilous by the exchange of 10, Hezbollah’s alliance with Iran state of Lebanon and Hezbollah and Lebanon will restore relations with the leader of the party that lost the strikes between Tel Aviv and Hez- stands the country at risk of be- will view Lebanon as responsible Syria to their pre-2011 status,” Khat- most seats in this election, which bollah’s allies in Tehran during the ing drawn into a wider war with for any action from within its terri- ib said. signals weakened support among early hours of May 10. its Jewish neighbour. “Israel is in- tory,” he said. Standing in opposition to such a his constituents,” Khatib added. “Hezbollah is feeling empowered creasingly viewing Lebanon as a As Hezbollah’s star rises, so does With Western influence over Iran as a result of the Lebanese elec- Hezbollah-dominated state and the likelihood of Lebanon’s disso- diminishing since the United States Lina Khatib, tions and Iran is standing defiant in the election results will further en- ciation from Syria and its conflict withdrew from the nuclear deal, the head of the MENA light of the US withdrawal from the courage this perspective,” Khatib wane. Since 2011, when Syria’s Programme at Chatham the threat of escalation between nuclear deal,” said Lina Khatib, the said. violence first threatened to engulf House Tehran and Tel Aviv has proven head of the Middle East and North Israeli Education Minister Naftali Lebanon, the country has pursued real. With Hezbollah, and by exten- Africa Programme at Chatham Bennett issued a statement May 7 a policy independent of Damascus. “Hezbollah is feeling sion Lebanon, standing on the front House. “This means continued ac- stating: “The results of the Leba- However, pressure from Hezbollah empowered as a result of the lines of that conflict, how this could tivity for both in Syria as long as nese elections strengthen what has to normalise relations with Syria Lebanese elections.” end for the country is unclear. Viewpoint Shattering the myths of Lebanese elections

ollowing a 9-year More important, Hezbollah, with to rest some myths and misconcep- tribal leadership, something that electoral hiatus, many its Shia ally the Amal Movement, tions about reforming the archaic the election results confirmed. Lebanese were extreme- secured most of the Shia seats in Lebanese political system. Despite the government’s cam- Makram Rabah ly keen to cast votes in parliament and helped its allies Contrary to the expectations of paign instructing voters how the the May 6 parliamentary challenge the hegemony of the the political factions, which ap- system worked, 38,909 void ballots elections — at least it Future Movement in the Sunni proved this diabolical electoral law, — a large number for an election in Fseemed so. community. the proportional electoral system Lebanon — were cast, suggesting Much of the fuss over this Hariri’s electoral debacle served was not well received by most of the system was too complex for supposedly routine activity was as a painful reminder of the bargain the Lebanese. For evidence, there ordinary electors. because of a new proportional he struck with Lebanese President is the appalling turnout. Realisti- Perhaps one of the most im- election law, which, theoretically, Michel Aoun and the consequent cally, Lebanese feel uneasy voting portant myths that the election offered voters a chance to either abandonment of his father’s legacy for a locked list with one preferen- shattered was one campaigned dislodge Lebanon’s political elite or he demonstrated by turning his tial voting option, something that on by many independent political challenge their hegemony. back on traditional allies Samir would entail them publicly endors- activists: that electoral reform was However, the anticipated ex- Geagea and Walid Jumblatt. ing one faction over the other. key for political reform. In reality, citement never made it as far as Above all, Hariri and his Future Interestingly, there is something the Lebanese electorate chose not Election Day. Voter turnout was Movement failed to address key very non-Lebanese about Bassil’s to endorse the so-called civil soci- about 49% nationwide, including a grievances of their constituency, law, at least from the perspective of ety candidates, who assumed that measly 34% in Beirut. The results, which had sent alarming messages the voters. Most Lebanese who are their active social media profiles given revisions to the law and the in the latest municipal elections by not affiliated to political factions, were sufficient to get them to par- gerrymandering that went into essentially boycotting the vote. either by choice or by tradition, liament, and voted for the status it, were hardly unexpected. Most In addition to Hezbollah, the prefer to divide their votes be- quo instead. of the traditional political parties other two victorious parties were tween opposing candidates, allow- Perhaps it is permissible to retained their share of seats, al- the Free Patriotic Movement led by ing them to petition either side for spend hours analysing and looking though some factions gained seats Aoun’s son-in-law and Lebanese favours as circumstances dictate. for reasons to justify the election in districts the previous majoritar- Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil Such locked lists require that the results. However, what cannot be ian electoral law had barred them and the Lebanese Forces. Bassil parties running present a clear and disputed is that, while they are en- from representing. conjured up and gerrymandered realistic political and economic titled to celebrate their democratic The results of this The main casualty of the elec- districts to secure his win. The platform, something that none of achievement, the Lebanese have a supposed democratic tion was Lebanese Prime Minister Lebanese Forces surpassed expec- those running May 6 managed to long way to go before they can call election go beyond Saad Hariri, who saw his Future tations with 15 seats, one of which do. themselves a democracy. Movement bloc reduced from 33 to is deep in the heart of Hezbollah- Funnily enough, even if such confirming 21 seats, as the distinctly under- controlled area in eastern Lebanon. a political programme existed, it Makram Rabah is a lecturer at Hezbollah’s whelming Sunni turnout allowed Yet the results of this supposed is highly unlikely the Lebanese the American University of Beirut Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian Sunni democratic election go beyond would even consider it, as they and author of “A Campus at War: hegemony over the allies to win five seats in Beirut, a confirming Hezbollah’s hegemony would rather continue voting for Student Politics at the American Lebanese state. traditional Hariri stronghold. over the Lebanese state. They lay their traditional sectarian and University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” 14 May 13, 2018 News & Analysis Egypt

Lingering concerns. A Egypt prepares for woman votes in the presi- dential election in Cairo, last municipal elections March. (AP) amid fears of Islamist resurgence

Ahmed Megahid a general parliamentary session for a vote. Up for grabs will be 53,000 seats in local councils nationwide. Cairo The drafting of a new municipal council law has stalled since the gypt is preparing for mu- 2011 revolution. A Muslim Broth- nicipal elections, which are erhood-led government sought to take place before the end to draft a new law in 2013 but was E of the year, amid fears of a unable to complete the process be- return to politics by Islamist forces. fore Islamist President Muhammad The elections would be the first Morsi’s ouster. municipal elections in ten years and Former long-time President the councils formed would oper- Hosni Mubarak’s National Demo- ate under a measure being debated cratic Party (NDP) was in control of in parliament. The new law, law- Egypt’s municipal councils before makers said, would give municipal the 2011 uprising but the party was councils increased powers and de- dissolved after the revolution. In “Almost all the parties are weak almost two-thirds of the 596-seat A package of economic reforms centralise much of the work being 2013, there had been fears that the and they cannot compete in an parliament, is expected to win initiated by Sisi is rescuing the done by Egypt’s powerful gover- Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice election like this,” said Hussein Ab- most of the seats in the municipal economy, raising foreign currency nors. Party would try to similarly monop- del Razek, a senior official of the elections. reserves at the central bank, in- “Giving the municipal councils olise control of Egypt’s municipali- leftist National Progressive Union- The coalition is attempting to creasing exports and reducing im- more powers is necessary if these ties but that party was disbanded in ist Party (Tagammu). “The political form a mega-party. However, de- ports. However, the same reforms, councils are to be able to do their 2014. parties do not have enough candi- spite the Egypt Support Coalition’s which included a massive subsidy work,” said MP Ahmed al-Segini, Fears of an Islamist political re- dates for all seats in the municipal expected dominance in the munic- cut, have meant short-term eco- chairman of the Local Administra- surgence have resurfaced because councils.” ipal elections, observers express nomic difficulties for millions of tion Committee. “The municipal of the weakness of Egypt’s secular The impotence of the political concerns about an Islamist resur- Egyptians. councils are very important for the parties and the gradual return of parties was demonstrated by the gence. Although the Muslim Brother- government.” Islamist politics in the Middle East, failure of most parties to win seats hood was outlawed in late 2014, They are also important for including in Tunisia where the En- in the 2014 parliamentary elec- The secular parties’ many people expect the Islamist Egypt’s political forces. Municipal nahda Movement won a sizeable tions. Only nine political parties are weaknesses mean the return organisation to field candidates in councils are direct links between portion of the vote in the municipal represented in Egypt’s legislature. of Islamist politics is a real the municipal elections with no the authorities and the general elections May 6. Egypt’s political parties failed to possibility. historic ties to the group. public, which is why Egypt’s politi- The secular parties’ weaknesses, field candidates in the presidential The Brotherhood, which won cal parties are expected to compete observers said, mean the return of elections in April, with President “The expected merger is a real the majority of the vote in the 2012 strongly for presence on the coun- Islamist politics is a real possibil- Abdel Fattah al-Sisi easily beating hope that the non-religious forces parliamentary elections and won cils. ity. While the Muslim Brotherhood his only challenger, who was from can dominate the vote,” Abdel the subsequent presidential elec- The date of the elections is ex- has been outlawed, candidates with a minor political party. Razek said. tions, has been subjected to a ruth- pected to be announced after the Islamist leanings can run as inde- The pro-Sisi Egypt Support Coa- However, recent domestic devel- less crackdown by authorities since Local Administration Committee pendents and the Salafist Al-Nour lition, which includes members of opments mean the pro-Sisi coali- mid-2013 for alleged involvement refers the municipal election bill to Party remains on the political scene. seven political parties and controls tion will face a tough election test. in terrorist attacks. Egypt looks to South Sudan ties amid Nile dam fears Amr Emam tions, helping the country regain Egypt has sought to put political internal stability and offering mas- pressure on Addis Ababa and Khar- sive development support to Juba. toum, which is backing the Ethio- Cairo Last November, Cairo hosted the pian dam, by getting other Nile ri- signing of a declaration of unifica- parian countries on its side. gypt’s improving ties with tion between two SPLM factions. “This is quite clear in Egyptian South Sudan is part of a The declaration called for an end moves in the region, especially in campaign to protect Nile to disputes between the factions the last two years,” said Sudanese E water rights and win over and the return of South Sudanese political analyst Mohamed Latif. African allies to pressure Khar- citizens displaced by the conflict. “Cairo does this by winning Nile toum and Addis Ababa over the Egypt has peacekeeping troops riparian states over to its side.” Grand Ethiopian Renaissance in parts of South Sudan, estab- Shoukry previously visited Juba Dam, experts said. lished clinics in the countries and and Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, “Cairo is doing this by gaining offered political backing to Juba. another riparian state, in March to strong presence in the immediate Cairo supports a South Sudanese discuss cooperation. As Shoukry vicinity of the two countries,” said bid to gain an observer’s status at addressed the SPLM convention, Hani Raslan, an African affairs spe- the Arab League and opposes an Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy cialist at Egypt’s Al-Ahram Centre arms embargo imposed on South Ahmed met with Sudanese Presi- for Political and Strategic Studies. Sudan in February. dent Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum “South Sudan is very important for Egypt’s support for South Sudan about increasing cooperation be- Egypt’s national security and inter- comes with the understanding that tween their two countries. ests in the African continent.” Juba will back Cairo in negotia- Ethiopia says the dam project is Egyptian Foreign Minister tions over the Nile. Technical talks necessary for its economic devel- Sameh Shoukry visited Juba, among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia opment and the welfare of its peo- South Sudan, for a meeting of the over the Renaissance dam remain ple. Sudan plans to buy electricity National Liberation Council of the deadlocked, with Shoukry explic- generated by the dam to satisfy ruling Sudan People’s Liberation itly blaming Khartoum and Addis growing national needs for electri- Movement (SPLM). He was one of Ababa for the lack of movement. cal power. the few foreign officials invited, He said Sudan and Ethiopia were Egypt has been trying to which demonstrated renewed pos- purposefully refusing to share a strengthen relations with Nile itive contacts between Cairo and study conducted to determine riparian states Rwanda and Tan- Juba. the dam’s effects on downstream zania. Ugandan President Yoweri At the meeting, Shoukry said countries. Cairo has said its share Museveni arrived in Cairo in early Egypt would do everything pos- of Nile waters would be signifi- May with a team of cabinet minis- sible to help South Sudanese fac- cantly affected by the dam. ters for talks with Egyptian Presi- tions reconcile and bring security Cairo’s diplomatic and politi- dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Sisi, at a and stability to South Sudan. cal outreach to Juba comes amid media briefing with Museveni, said South Sudan descended into the emergence of new alliances his country was keen on solving chaos in 2013 when President between Nile countries. South Su- pending issues in Ethiopian dam Salva Kiir Mayardit accused Riek dan is a middle-stream state and negotiations. Machar, then the vice-president, features a confluence between the Egypt and Uganda also signed of orchestrating a coup with some Achwa River and the White Nile, several cooperation deals and army units. The situation polar- one of the two main tributaries of memorandums of understand- ised South Sudan’s military and the Nile. ing in electricity, agriculture and Diplomatic outreach. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry the conflict morphed into civil transport. speaks during a visit to Khartoum, last April. (AFP) war that resulted in thousands of Such emerging alliances, ana- deaths and tens of thousands in- Egypt’s support for South lysts said, reflect the nature of con- past strengths,” said Amani al- own interests and to do this by all ternally and externally displaced, Sudan comes with the flicts in the region. Taweel, another African affairs means.” including in Ethiopia and Sudan. understanding that Juba “They also reflect a desire by specialist at Al-Ahram Centre for Egypt has been working to rec- will back Cairo in Egypt to bring its relations with Political and Strategic Studies. Amr Emam is a Cairo-based oncile South Sudanese rival fac- negotiations over the Nile. other African states back to their “Egypt has the right to defend its contributor to The Arab Weekly. May 13, 2018 15 News & Analysis Palestine Israel

Anger brewing. An Israeli border policeman stands guard as Palestinian demonstrators take part in a protest ahead of Nakba anniversary in Bethlehem, on May 10. (Reuters) A perfect storm gathering for Palestinians, Israelis

The Arab Weekly staff recognition in December of the moving of the embassy but he has manitarian situation in the be- “Illegal orders have green- city as the capital of Israel. yet to specify what those moves sieged strip. lighted firing on demonstrators The move of the US Embassy would be. There are fears Palestinian cau- irrespective of whether this was London was timed for May 14 to coincide Hamas, the rival to Abbas’s PA, salities will be higher because ‘strictly unavoidable in order to with the 70th anniversary of Isra- is taking part in what is expected more Palestinians — an estimated protect life,’ the standard required ymbolic and sensitive el’s founding. Israel has welcomed to be the largest gathering near the 100,000-200,000 — are expected under international law for inten- events in Israel and the oc- the move. Palestinians have an- Gaza-Israel border on May 15. The to be taking part in the protests. tional use of lethal force in a law cupied Palestinian territo- nounced a “day of rage.” day marks Nakba (Catastrophe) Israeli media reported that hun- enforcement situation.” S ries are taking place close to “The 14th of this month will be Day, when hundreds of thousands dreds of Palestinians intend to try Israel responded to HRW’s criti- each other, raising the likelihood a huge, popular day of rage every- of Palestinians became refugees to breach the Israeli border on May cism by terminating the residency of confrontations. where,” Ahmad Majdalani, a sen- following the creation of Israel. 15. permit of the rights group’s Israel Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day ior Palestine Liberation Organisa- Palestinians accused of attempt- and Palestine director, Omar Sha- on May 13, a national holiday com- tion (PLO) official, was quoted as ing to cross the border have been kir, giving him two weeks to leave memorating the reunification of saying on Palestinian radio. “Our The marches are often killed by Israeli soldiers, a show the country. It accused him of the city after the Israeli military people will express their rejection marked by anti-Palestinian of force branded as unlawful by promoting the boycott of Israel as took control of the Old City in the of relocating the embassy to occu- slogans but this year the rights groups. part of the international Boycott, 1967 Six-Day War. Last year, which pied Jerusalem.” event is likely to be more “Excessive use of force by secu- Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) marked the 50th anniversary, tens If Palestinian Authority (PA) sensitive for the rity forces has been routine during campaign. of thousands of Israelis marched President Mahmoud Abbas decides Palestinians. Israel’s 50-year occupation, Anan HRW denied the allegations and through Arab neighbourhoods in to back the “major protests,” there AbuShanab, a research assistant at accused Israel of seeking to pres- the eastern side of the city. would be “little the [Palestinian] Human Rights Watch’s (HRW) Mid- sure human rights groups. The marches are often marked security forces could do to prevent Since the weekly Gaza protests dle East and North Africa Division, “This is not about Shaki but rath- by anti-Palestinian slogans but clashes” between Palestinians and began March 30, approximately said in a statement. er about muzzling Human Rights this year the event is likely to be Israelis, an unidentified Palestin- 40 demonstrators have been killed “In Gaza, Israeli forces have Watch and shutting down criticism more sensitive for the Palestinians ian security official told the Jerusa- and more than 1,700 wounded by since March 30 fatally shot 39 Pal- of Israel’s rights record,” HRW said because one day later the United lem Post. Israeli forces. The protests, called estinians — including five children in a statement. “Neither Human States will ceremoniously open its Abbas recently said he would the “Great March of Return,” were and two journalists — and injured Rights Watch nor its representa- new embassy in Jerusalem, in line take “tough steps” against the meant to highlight the rights for thousands during demonstrations tive, Shakir, promotes boycotts of with US President Donald Trump’s United States and Israel over the Palestinian refugees and the hu- near the border fence. Israel.” Support for Gaza from the Israeli side of the fence

Kaja Bouman than 1,000 others were wounded. protests but said he hasn’t seen a raelis who stood in solidarity with CWP organised protests and The next day, the IDF said ten of the single Hamas flag or Fatah banner Gaza. gatherings in Tel Aviv and Haifa af- Palestinians who had been killed at the border. “The Great Return “The support is only among a ter its first protest at the Gaza bor- Jerusalem were known terrorists and that un- March is not Hamas’s action. It is all small, specific group of Israelis der. Hanna said the organisation armed civilians who stayed away of ours,” he wrote. but they have helped us reach the will keep doing so after the March alestinians in the Gaza Strip from the border fence would not be Gazans have been negatively af- Gazan people who now know there of Return comes to an end. have protested for weeks at targeted. fected by Israel’s siege and hope are Israelis out there who don’t sup- the Gaza-Israeli border for Several weeks later, after more the march will raise international port the crimes of the Israeli gov- P the Great March of Return, protesters were killed and injured, awareness. Aseel Noor, 33, has not ernment,” said CWP activist Marwa The Coalition of Women for demanding the right to return to the army dropped leaflets saying participated in the March of Re- Hanna. “I don’t believe we will Peace (CWP) initiated a their lands. On the other side of “Hamas endangers your lives” and turn due to a recent back surgery incite political change but we’re protest that attracted about the border fence, a small group of urging Palestinians to stay away but said she supports her friends achieving social change.” 150 Israelis who stood in Israelis have stood up for Gazans, from the protests. and colleagues at the border. “We Omer, a 25-year old student at the solidarity with Gaza. speaking out against the killing of The violence and the IDF’s at- have the right to ask for political protest, said: “Gaza is the most cru- Palestinians and urging an end to tempts to stop or decrease the size change,” Noor said by phone. cial issue about the occupation.” The protests in Gaza are supposed the siege. of the protests have not kept the Despite having a bachelor’s de- “It’s 2 million people living in an to last 45 days, ending May 15. The During the protests, which large- Palestinians from participating. gree in media and public relations, unbearable situation. Most Israelis first day, March 30, commemorated ly take place on Fridays, more than “The march is an effective way to Noor, who lives in Nuseirat, hasn’t think we’re out but, in reality, Gaza Land Day, the day in which six Pal- three dozen Palestinians, including highlight the unbearable living con- been able to work in more than two is completely controlled by Israel estinians were killed in 1976 while children, have been killed. Thou- ditions facing residents of the Gaza years. “Like the majority of citizens and the Palestinians there couldn’t protesting land confiscations. The sands of protesters have been in- Strip: four hours of electricity a day, in Gaza, we are refugees. We used have a normal life if they wanted last day, May 15, will be the 70th an- jured and even journalists have the indignity of having our econ- to own property and we were rich. to,” he added. niversary of what Palestinians call been targeted by the Israeli mili- omy and borders under siege, the Now we are poor and live in the Omer volunteers on weekends the Nakba, or “catastrophe.” The tary. Thirteen reporters have been fear of having our homes shelled,” worst conditions,” Noor said. to help protect West Bank farmers Nakba commemorates the mass shot with live ammunition. wrote Fadi Abu Shammalah, execu- The day after the first Palestin- from Israeli settler violence and displacement of Palestinians that On the first day of the campaign, tive director of the General Union ians were killed, the Coalition of harassment. “Most Israelis would preceded the establishment of the March 30, the Israeli Defence Forc- of Cultural Centres in Gaza, in the Women for Peace (CWP), a femi- consider me an enemy of the state state of Israel in 1948. es (IDF) responded with what many New York Times. nist, anti-occupation organisation, for my work in the West Bank or considered to be excessive force; Shammalah recognised that Ha- initiated a protest near the border just for being at this protest,” Omer Kaja Bouman is a Dutch journalist 15 protesters were killed and more mas supporters participate in the fence that attracted about 150 Is- said. in Jerusalem. 16 May 13, 2018 Spotlight Social Media IT

Viewpoint Egyptian parliament approves bill regulating ride-sharing apps

Ahmed Megahid ward conditions, including stipu- lating that ride-sharing companies must obtain 5-year renewable li- Cairo cences costing 30 million Egyptian pounds ($1.7 million). Drivers must ide-sharing companies also buy special licences to operate. Uber and Careem ex- While Uber and Careem largely pressed concern over fi- welcomed the new law, which Uber R nancial and security con- described as “progressive regula- ditions stipulated in a new law in tions” in an official statement, con- Egypt that seeks to regulate their cerns remain about data sharing. services. Abdellatif Waked, Uber’s general The Egyptian parliament ap- manager in Egypt, said the compa- proved a draft law to regulate ride- ny was keen to ensure the protec- sharing apps, potentially ending a tion of clients’ privacy. “We cannot lawsuit that had threatened to shut actually share the information of down ride-sharing companies but our clients without a court order,” also imposing stringent fees and Waked said. data-sharing requirements. Behind the government’s insist- The new law requires ride-shar- ence for ride-sharing companies to ing companies in Egypt to submit share clients’ information is Egypt’s information about clients to secu- war against terrorism, security ex- rity agencies on request, a mandate perts said. There are fears terror- viewed by the companies as an in- ists could use Uber and Careem in fringement on clients’ privacy. Egypt, which, unlike ride-sharing “We object to sharing the infor- services in many other countries, mation of our clients with any- allows clients to pay by cash, to es- body,” said Rania Gaafar, the gener- cape security monitoring. al manager of Careem. “The clients “This is why it is important for have a right to the privacy of their the two companies to share infor- contacts and movement details.” mation about their clients, espe- Ride-sharing companies revo- cially those wanted or followed by lutionised Egypt’s transportation security agencies,” said Hamada network and have sidelined many al-Qest, a member of the Egyptian A generation in transition. A young Arab woman looks at her laptop while making a phone call at a traditional taxi operators. Even Parliament’s Defence and National shopping mall in Dubai. (Reuters) Egyptians with private cars often Security Committee. “Terrorist ele- prefer to use ride-sharing apps to ments can use these apps in stag- avoid Cairo’s chaotic traffic and ing terrorist attacks that will harm benefit from ride-sharing compa- everybody, including the business nies’ inexpensive pricing, in com- of the two companies.” parison to traditional taxis. The issue of data sharing was at Digital media is Arab Thousands of taxi drivers have the centre of parliamentary de- protested the loss of revenue to bate on the ride-sharing measure. Uber and Careem. They staged Some lawmakers advocated a more street demonstrations and for- laissez-faire attitude, fearing a po- mally appealed to the government tential negative effect on foreign to tighten restrictions on the ride- investment. youth’s next frontier sharing industry. Uber and Careem have been a The March 20 ruling was in re- major boon for employment. Uber sponse to a lawsuit filed on behalf has said Egypt was its largest mar- positions or bypass official media the same events. Only awareness of taxi drivers who argued that ket in the Middle East, with 157,000 channels and deliver news first- and perception can transform Uber, Careem and other ride-shar- drivers in 2017 and 4 million users hand. In doing so, political leaders the traditional reader or viewer ing apps allowed citizens to use since its launch in 2014. Iman Zayat join a younger generation in a into a news consumer capable of their private cars as taxis. Uber Questions remain as to how the world racing to disseminate the distinguishing between fake news and Careem appealed that ruling, new fees — drivers will have to pay news as quickly as possible. and real journalism. which had ordered them to sus- $170 to acquire an operational li- he world’s me- With 4 billion internet users Such an endeavour is possible pend service. cence — will affect the ride-sharing dia landscape has and up to 3.2 billion social media in the Arab world, which boasts Soon after the verdict was issued business. changed drastically users, the Global Digital Report a great resource: young people, by the Administrative Court, which “These are huge amounts of in the last decade, (2018) said, users of social media who make up around two-thirds rules in disputes between citizens money,” Gaafar said. “The driv- resulting in major platforms are toiling to be unique of the region’s population. Arab and the government, the govern- ers cannot pay this money and, if social, political and and exclusive so they stand out. youth are more involved in the ment gave Uber and Careem six we pay it for them, we will have to Teconomic shifts. Not only has What is often lacking in new digital world than ever and their months to apply for licences. The raise the fares, which will ultimate- this brought about a wave of new platforms, however, are the digital literacy should be encour- measure passed in May put for- ly cause us to lose clients.” satellite channels, news web- valued traits of traditional jour- aged and promoted. Young people sites, blogs, social media content nalism: fact checking, editorial in the region have shown remark- and other platforms from which standards and due diligence. able intelligence and curios- viewers can chose, it has changed While traditional media sources ity, making important strides in the very nature of news and work to stick to routine proce- digital literacy reporting. dures and reliable sources, new They also have strong feelings The tenth ASDA’A Burson- platforms lack any such code, re- about media bias. AYS said, Arab Marsteller Arab Youth Survey sulting in a lack of accountability. youth ranked Al Jazeera as the (AYS) highlighted this transfor- The digital landscape includes least credible news source in the mation, presenting important a variety of blogs, hundreds of region. findings on the media’s charac- millions of active Twitter ac- The Qatar-owned news station teristics and potential. counts, billions of active Face- has long been accused of ped- The AYS stated that more book accounts and a deluge of dling hate. In 2004, US President young Arabs receive news on so- online posts, generally packed George W. Bush singled it out as cial media than television, with with opinion. Anything can be being a source of “hateful propa- up to 49% of those asked saying said on these platforms. Rumours ganda” in the Arab world. After they get daily news from Face- can be repeated, allegations can seeing the media organisation’s book. This is a major shift since be made and delusional stories role in bolstering the Muslim 2015 and, given revelations about can be relayed as fact and shared Brotherhood and other extremist Facebook’s disclosure of private by thousands of people. groups through the “Arab spring,” data, comes with concerns. Censorship is impossible in young Arabs seem to agree. While social media platforms such an environment. If anything, As people grow increasingly such as Facebook have made the it only backfires, giving censored aware of the shortcomings of world more open and connected, sources notoriety, a powerful ap- democratised information, they they also pose a near dystopian peal to readers. are becoming more selective. danger: social control. This was the case during the Policymakers and leaders who Young Arabs are not alone in “Arab spring” uprisings in 2011: wish to engage with this new their obsession with social media The more governments tried to Arab generation must understand and the internet. They are joined censor “citizen journalism,” the the power of digital technology on Twitter, Facebook and other more powerful and popular that and implement essential reforms platforms by political figures, form of journalism grew. across society and institutions. including heads of state, celebri- How, then, is it possible to con- It will be these young Arabs ties, experts and analysts from tain the scourge of fake news and who will shape the future of poli- across the political spectrum. online disinformation? tics and society through commu- From US President Donald The only way is through nications and technology, making Trump, a notorious Tweeter, to raising public awareness and an immediate focus on the rise of Turkish President Recep Tayyip promoting media and digital digital news essential. Erdogan, world leaders are literacy. Internet users must increasingly using social me- check sources, verify references Iman Zayat is the Managing Revolutionising transportation. An Uber employee shows the mobile dia platforms to publicise their and compare various reports of Editor of The Arab Weekly. application at the launch of the car-hailing service in Cairo. (AP) May 13, 2018 17 News & Analysis Turkey Weeks before Turkish elections, why is Erdogan hinting at defeat?

Thomas Seibert Spirited politics. Washington Turkey’s main opposition s Turkey’s election cam- Republican paign gathers steam before People’s snap polls in June, Presi- Party (CHP) dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan candidate for A the upcoming has hinted that he might face defeat, giving an additional boost to an al- presidential ready invigorated opposition. election Erdogan called the elections for Muharrem parliament and the presidency Ince delivers about 17 months early to get a head a speech at start on the opposition and to ce- the start of his ment a change towards a system campaign in that would give the president wide- Ankara, ranging executive powers. He con- on May 4. (AFP) trols Turkey’s state apparatus and most of the media, while a state of emergency in place for almost two years is putting pressure on dissi- dents. However, what had looked like an easy race for the 64-year-old leader in theory is turning into a nail-biter. Some polls indicate that Erdogan could lose his parliamentary major- ity, the presidency, or both, devel- opments that would usher in a new era for a NATO country and a Mid- dle Eastern player at a geostrategic As Turks prepare to choose a new heal social wounds after years of detention under charges of lending not be enough for Erdogan and the juncture between East and West. parliament and a new president in polarisation under Erdogan. “I want support to militant Kurdish sepa- AKP in the face of stubbornly high In a surprise to both supporters the June 24 election, Erdogan pub- to bring peace to Turks and Kurds, to ratists. Demirtas scored about 10% unemployment and a lack of enthu- and critics, Erdogan, who has won licly chided voters who consider Alevi and Sunni, that’s what I’m all in Turkey’s presidential election in siasm among their own base, visible almost every election since 2002, splitting their ballot, voting for him about,” Ince wrote on Twitter. 2014, a similar showing this time during the roll-out of the president’s appeared to contemplate the possi- as president but not for his Justice Ince, a 54-year-old former teacher, could deny Erdogan a victory in the election manifesto on May 6, ob- bility of defeat. “If one day our na- and Development Party (AKP) in the has electrified the CHP. Some polls first round of the presidential vote. servers say. “Even Erdogan‘s own tion says ‘enough,’ we will withdraw parliamentary election, as “trouble- see an opposition alliance by the Ince has called for Demirtas’s re- supporters seemed bored by his to the sidelines,” he said on May 8. makers.” CHP and three other parties head to lease for the duration of the election speech,” Hintz said via e-mail. Opposition politicians and other Speaking on the Medyascope in- head with the AKP and its partners, campaign but there is no sign the Hintz, however, warned that op- Erdogan foes immediately picked ternet TV platform, Cakir said Er- the right-wing National Movement government intends to act on the position to Erdogan alone did not up on the theme and made “tamam” dogan’s campaign had no positive Party (MHP) and the smaller nation- request. amount to a political programme — the Turkish word for “enough” message to offer, only “fear” of al- alist Great Unity Party. Erdogan has hinted he could send for Erdogan’s political adversaries. that was used by Erdogan — their leged foreign political and economic In the presidential vote, sev- the Turkish Army into Syria for an- “Precedent shows that it’s much rallying cry. The word trended on machinations against Turkey. “This eral pollsters say Erdogan could be other military intervention, follow- easier to unite around what you’re Twitter with 500,000 tweets within is the most difficult election for Er- forced into a run-off on July 8. Cakir ing Operation Euphrates Shield in against than what you’re for,” she hours. dogan in 20 years,” Cakir said. said Erdogan is concerned that a loss 2016 and Operation Olive Branch in wrote. “This is the closest he’s come to One of the reasons for Erdogan’s for the AKP in the June 24 parlia- January. The latter resulted in a “ral- Some critics, pointing to wide- losing and there is more discontent predicament is that Turkey’s op- mentary election could add motiva- ly ‘round the flag” moment with up spread reports of irregularities within his party than ever before,” position is unusually combative. tion to the opposition in a presiden- to 80% of Turks polled expressing during a referendum last year that said Lisel Hintz, assistant profes- Muharrem Ince, the presidential tial run-off. support for the cross-border action produced a paper-thin majority for sor of international relations and candidate of the main opposition Another strong opposition can- against a Kurdish militia in Syria. Erdogan’s plans for a presidential European studies at Johns Hopkins Republican People’s Party (CHP), is didate is nationalist Meral Aksener, “Turkey will launch additional of- system, said they are concerned the University. Rusen Cakir, a veteran challenging Erdogan by portraying who could attract disgruntled AKP fensives like Euphrates Shield and government could resort to manipu- Turkish journalist who has watched himself as a leader who can bring or MHP voters. Olive Branch operations to clear its lation if things go wrong on June 24. Erdogan’s career closely since the people together, instead of dividing Turkey’s legal pro-Kurdish party, border of terror organisations in the Ince has called on lawyers in Turkey 1990s, also said the president is them. the Peoples’ Democratic Party, is new era,” Erdogan said in a speech to be ready on polling day to file pro- “more concerned and nervous than A central message of Ince’s elec- fielding its former chairman, Sela- May 6. tests at the electoral commission in before elections in the past.” tion platform is that it is time to hattin Demirtas, who is in pre-trial Even a new foray into Syria may Ankara.

Viewpoint Tightening race places Turkey’s Kurds at the centre

rithmetic is all these on Ahval News Online. “’If it does Erdogan or against him. It’s not show the pro-Kurdish People’s days in Turkey. There not come, the lira’s free fall will clear if voters will be persuaded Democratic Party (HDP) has about is about a month continue. If, however, the central that the opposition has a compre- 10% support. That is the criti- Yavuz Baydar to go before snap bank surprises markets with a hensive alternative to offer to stem cal threshold for a party to enter elections called by 300-400 basis points rate hike, its economic woes. It is an open ques- parliament. If the HDP’s support Turkish President positive effect on the lira will be tion whether voters have already falls short, the Kurdish vote in RecepA Tayyip Erdogan and, while profound.”’ felt the effects enough to properly the second round may decide the the race tightens, poll numbers are There could be still more trouble make up their mind. presidential election. carefully studied. ahead, Sanli said. If the admin- Undecided voters remain 10- Erdogan knows the importance The challenge to the Erdogan’s istration does not switch “to 15% of the electorate, said Ozer of the Kurdish element. In the Justice and Development Party’s orthodox policy measures when a Sencar of MetroPoll, one of the few coming weeks, he will build his (AKP) 16-year rule might best be perfect storm appears to be brew- credible independent pollsters in strategy accordingly. This may summed up as: “It’s the economy, ing” the June 24 elections may Turkey. He said it was unusual that mean that tension politics — refo- stupid!” because if the Turkish be followed by a run-off. That’s the “undecided” figure is so high. cusing on the Kurdistan Workers’ lira falls then Erdogan’s attempt to if the elections don’t produce a Sencar sees another sign of Party and more harassment of HDP hold on to power seems to be turn- solid parliamentary majority for uncertainty: Those answering politicians — will re-enter Erdog- ing into an uphill battle. Erdogan’s party. questions from pollsters about how an’s tactical plans. In early May, the lira dropped Some observers have adopted a they plan to vote are deeply fear- If the HDP fails to reach 10% of to a record low against the US wait-and-see attitude. They know ful, which makes it difficult to ac- the national vote, Erdogan may dollar and Erdogan was forced to Erdogan is skilful at pulling rabbits curately gauge voters’ intentions. feel secure in a new parliamentary convene an emergency meeting of out of hats. They maintain caution However, as he points out, the majority. However, if the disap- his economic team. The meeting about the election results despite pro-Erdogan AKP-MHP [Nation- pointed Kurdish voters pick the ended with a statement that made the massive “Tamam” (“Enough”) alist Movement Party] bloc has opposition presidential candidate vague promises — such as continu- campaign on social media. about 40% support, polls indi- en masse in the second round, If the HDP fails to ing a path of growth-based policies More than 2 million tweets with cate. That is slightly lower than in another general election becomes and combating inflation — without the hashtag “Tamam” flooded March. Support for the four-party inevitable. reach 10% of the specifying measures to be taken. social media in about 24 hours. opposition bloc stands at approxi- This is probably what interna- national vote, It eased the lira’s slide but experts It was a call for Erdogan to step mately 43%. Given the tight race, tional experts mean when they say said that may not be more than down but the president’s grip on Sencar predicted that the presi- Turkey may be heading for further Erdogan may feel temporary. the traditional media is tighter dential election would go into a instability, if not a deeper crisis. secure in a new “The markets will now look than ever and it is television chan- second round. parliamentary for an announcement from the nels that matter most. Sencar noted the question that Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish central bank in the coming days,” Turkey’s reality is that society is hangs over the Kurdish vote. His journalist and regular columnist majority. said analyst Guldem Atabay Sanli deeply riven — you are either for surveys over the past two months for The Arab Weekly. 18 May 13, 2018 Economy

Interview The IMF’s view on the pace of reform in the MENA region

porting and oil-importing econo- the region is not performing well mies this year and next. It also compared to benchmarks and, if warned that deeper reforms were the region wants to attract more Sharmila Devi necessary to create jobs. What are investment, it has to accelerate the your biggest worries? reforms on that front. “There is still some way to go London JA: “Clearly the outlook is im- in terms of fighting corruption, in proving. It offers an opportunity terms of improving government ser- ihad Azour was appointed to maintain the reform drive. It vices as well as increasing transpar- director of the Middle East doesn’t give [governments] the ency. I think there is a recognition and Central Asia depart- time to relax and to delay reforms. of the importance of those elements ment of the International The current recovery that we are but still there are certain steps to be Monetary Fund (IMF) in seeing in the region, and the global made and important ones.” 2017. He served as Leba- improvement in the outlook, pro- Jnon’s finance minister from 2005- vide the background and the right TAW: Are there any other areas of 08 after working in the private environment for countries in the progress? sector at consulting and investment region to accelerate their reform firms. agenda. JA: “Some countries have intro- Prior to US President Donald “We recognise that there will be duced measures to improve the Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran some challenges or risks for the business environment, access to nuclear deal, Azour spoke to The outlook for this year. For example, finance, institutions and bankrupt- Arab Weekly about the need to pro- interest rates may go up… and this cy laws and to reduce the number mote jobs and growth in the region. needs to be taken into considera- of steps to open a company but, as I tion, especially for [oil-importing] said, it’s not enough.” The Arab Weekly (TAW): How countries with high levels of debt. worried are you by the economic ef- “The evolution of the oil price TAW: You have said the region fects of the US withdrawal from the [which has risen to around $75 a needs to create at least 25 million 2015 Iran deal? [Tehran had agreed barrel from less than $30 in early jobs over the next five years. How to curb its nuclear programme in 2016] can allow importers to accel- can it do this? return for relief from US sanctions erate reform of subsidies. The same that will now be reimposed.] is true of geopolitical clouds that JA: “By enabling the private sec- could have an impact on investor tor is the best fit currently to create Jihad Azour (JA): “The increase sentiment and should be an incen- jobs. In the past, the public sector in tension will clearly increase un- tive for governments to enact re- tried to compensate for the lack of certainty, which will be a negative forms to keep their attractiveness.” Improving outlook. Jihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund job creation in the private sector development for any economy. It director of the Middle East and Central Asia. (AP) and this didn’t lead to a reduction in is important that certain measures TAW: Can reforms such as slash- unemployment or improvement in were taken [in Iran] to preserve sta- ing energy subsidies and shrinking public services. Therefore, what is bility on the economic and financial public sector jobs lead to rising frus- but the commitment to reform can TAW: How is the region faring in needed today is to enable small and side. The reunification of exchange tration and short-term pain? shorten the period of adjustment terms of improving transparency medium-sized enterprises to have rates that happened recently was while the current outlook that is and governance? the potential to grow and by allow in the right direction. [In April, Iran JA: “This year the context is turning positive gives a better back- the private sector to play a greater unified official and free-market better than last year or the years ground for countries to pursue their JA: “There is progression. Some role in terms of infrastructure. exchange rates but the Iranian rial before because of the improvement reform agenda.” countries are already making initia- “I think it’s very important to plunged to a record low against the in economic activities and outlook. tives on that but there is a long way accelerate the pace on that because US dollar in the free market after Therefore, it’s easier to pursue TAW: What do you think about to go. If you look at education, technology offers an opportunity Trump announced his withdrawal those reforms than two years ago Saudi Arabia’s ambitious reforms? but also it creates some challenges from the Iran accord on May 8.] when the level of growth was because some jobs could be de- “The level of trade between Iran slower. JA: “The reform programme that Prior to US stroyed. This is why the emphasis and the [Gulf Cooperation Council] “The second important element [the Saudis] have come up with is withdrawal from the today is to do whatever is required GCC countries is fairly limited and is when you do a comprehensive the right mix of reforms. The key Iran nuclear deal, to improve the business environ- in certain countries non-existent reform programme, the tendency is implementation and commit- ment and accelerate some of the key but any increase in regional tension is to have a faster payback. Take ment to deliver on it. I think what is Azour spoke to The reforms that provide better access to and uncertainty could have an ef- the examples of Egypt or Morocco, important now is not to be com- Arab Weekly about finance for the private sector.” fect on investor sentiment.” which enacted more than one re- placent because the oil price went form at a time and their economies up. There is always a challenge the need to promote Sharmila Devi is a former British TAW: The IMF’s latest report, have jump-started again. whenever you have a rise in the oil jobs and growth in correspondent in the Middle East released in early May, forecasted “I think it is important to recog- price to go back to the old cycle of the region. and writes on political and social economic recovery in both oil-ex- nise there will be short-term pain boom and bust.” issues in the region. Algeria’s Sonatrach to buy refinery in Italy as it expands abroad

Lamine Ghanmi being convicted of betraying Alge- ergy company in the world with a rian economic secrets to foreign in- turnover of $33.5 billion last year terests in 2007 after he worked for when its oil and gas output was at Tunis an Algerian-US engineering venture 195 million tonnes of equivalent owned by Sonatrach and oil servic- oil. Sonatrach has oil and gas inter- lgeria’s state-owned en- es firm Halliburton. ests in Peru, Bolivia, Niger, Libya ergy company Sonatrach, Analysts said his sentencing was and eyes gas joint ventures in Iraq. buoyed by rising oil prices part of the usual infighting among Algerian analysts said Ould Kad- A and the leadership of its military and civil elites, which dour’s projection about Sonatrach new head, will buy Augusta oil re- makes the top job at Sonatrach vul- turnover and size in the next 12 finery in Sicily and three oil termi- nerable to changes among factions years means that Algeria would be nals in Italy in an expansion plan to of the ruling elites. tapping its shale gas resources. Al- propel it as “one of the five major After serving his prison term, geria developed plans to tap shale oil firms in the world,” its chief ex- Ould Kaddour worked in France, gas by committing $70 billion to ecutive officer said. Senegal and the United Arab Emir- the industry after Bouteflika said it “This purchase is our first biggest ates before becoming chief of was a duty to use natural resources acquisition and one of our major Sonatrach. to help the Algerian economy. projects abroad,” Sonatrach CEO Ould Kaddour was brought in Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour said by Algerian President Abdelaziz in a statement. Bouteflika in March 2017 to run “The Augusta refinery opens an Sonatrach because of his ties to US The shift in strategies outlet for Algeria’s crude oil while oil companies, which he has asked supports Ould Kaddour’s it improves the supply of Algeria’s to invest in Algeria and improve its ambitions to turn domestic market in petroleum oil facilities technologies. Sonatrach into one of the products. This will give us more au- Observers said Ould Kaddour’s tonomy and reduce costs as we con- plan to expand Sonatrach is anoth- five leading oil firms in trol the whole chain of production.” er indication that Bouteflika will the world. Algeria’s average domestic con- Outbound ambitions. A general view of the headquarters of seek a fifth term as president next sumption of petroleum products is Algerian state energy company Sonatrach in Algiers. (Reuters) April. 15 million tonnes per year but its re- “We had already completed the Sonatrach drilled two explora- fineries produce 11.5 million tonnes development plan of Sonatrach for tion shale gas wells outside the annually, leaving a deficit covered fining capacity to 31 million tonnes officials defend local refining to the 2018-22 period of $56 billion,” desert town of In Salah in 2014. by importing $2 billion worth of this year and to 41 million tonnes protect energy supply security and said Ould Kaddour. “Our ambition Authorities described the results petroleum products a year, govern- by 2020. create jobs at home. is to provide the necessary condi- of the exploration as “very promis- ment figures showed. Algeria’s demand for petroleum The apparent shift in strategies tions for the successful implemen- ing.” However, violent protests in Sonatrach in 2012 unveiled a plan products had risen 7% per year on supports Ould Kaddour’s ambitions tation of this plan to transform 2015 over concerns about threats to to process crude oil at home by average for ten years through 2017, to turn Sonatrach into one of the Sonatrach into one of the biggest nomadic life and to water resourc- upgrading its refineries in Algiers, data from the Energy Ministry stat- five leading oil firms in the world. oil firms in the world.” es forced the government to stop Arzew and Skikda at a cost of $4.5 ed. The energy sector accounts for 95% “Making Sonatrach one of the development efforts. billion. Sonatrach also planned to Algerian experts argued that re- of Algeria’s total exports and up to five biggest oil companies is not a The US Energy Information Ad- build five new refineries, including fining oil abroad costs the country 60% of the state budget. dream. It will be a reality in 2030 ministration estimates that Algeria a plant near its biggest oilfield, Has- less than producing the commod- Familiar with the challenges of when its turnover will be $60 bil- contains 707 trillion cubic feet of si Messaoud, at the cost of $10 bil- ity at home because of a bloated Algeria’s environment, Ould Kad- lion,” Ould Kaddour said. technically recoverable shale gas lion. That would increase its oil re- workforce at its refineries. Algerian dour was jailed for two years after Sonatrach is the 12th biggest en- and 5.7 billion barrels of oil. May 13, 2018 19 Economy Energy

Egypt to introduce Briefs Sudan fuel further electricity, shortage hikes black market energy subsidy cuts prices

Amr Emam Egypt’s budget deficit is expected Black market fuel prices surged to reach 9.4% of GDP by the end of in Khartoum and other Sudanese the current fiscal year in July. The towns as petrol and diesel short- Cairo Finance Ministry plans to lower the Bold measures. Electricity pylons and power transmission lines ages forced residents to queue for deficit to 8.4% of GDP by the end of are seen along a road in Cairo. (Reuters) hours outside gas stations. gypt is preparing to intro- the next fiscal year and to 6.2% by Fuel supplies began dwindling duce additional cuts to ener- the end of the 2019-20 fiscal year. sary move.” expected to rise to 5.2%. Ismail has in early April. Officials blamed gy and electricity subsidies Egyptian Finance Minister Amr el- Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif said the economy could grow at 9% maintenance delays at a key re- E to bring its budget deficit Garhy said the public debt increased Ismail last month said the govern- annually in the foreseeable future. finery, although foreign currency down and move ahead with devel- fivefold in five years, reaching 107% ment planned to improve services The unemployment rate dropped shortages have played a role. opment programmes. of GDP. Egypt aspires to reduce debt and living conditions of citizens to 11.3% and will decline to less than The crisis has since escalated de- The government has not an- to 80% of GDP in 2020. with low incomes. 11% next year, the government said. spite official pledges to resolve it. nounced a date to introduce new To achieve these goals, maintain The government slashed elec- A weaker pound is incentivising subsidy cuts but Cairo has been structural reforms in the economy tricity and energy subsidies twice exports, especially agricultural and (Agence France-Presse) adamant about moving ahead with and move ahead with development in 2017, moves that significantly construction material exports and financial and monetary reforms, de- projects, the government must decreased the average Egyptian’s consequently stimulating produc- spite expected popular disapproval. move towards eliminating subsi- spending power at a time of rising tion. “The cuts are very important if dies. commodity prices. However, there are fears that sub- Algeria to we will be able to control the budget Egypt specified $6.7 billion for The subsidy cuts are part of re- sidy cuts will lead to price hikes and deficit and bring debts down,” said energy subsidies in the fiscal year forms that have included the flota- more suffering for the poorest Egyp- open farming Mohamed Mo’eit, assistant finance 2017-18 and $1.7 billion for electric- tion of the Egyptian pound against tians. minister for treasury affairs. “We ity subsidies in the same fiscal year. foreign currencies and the introduc- “The fear is that the hikes can concessions to need to have the necessary financial The government wants to reduce tion of a value added tax. reach an uncontrollable level,” said resources to move ahead with devel- energy subsidies 26% and electricity The flotation of the pound in No- Alia al-Mahdi, an economics profes- foreigners opment and economic reform.” subsidies 47% in the new budget. vember 2016 resulted in the national sor at Cairo University. “This makes Cuts were recommended by an The move, economists said, currency losing almost 50% of its it necessary for the government to Algeria plans to offer foreign in- International Monetary Fund (IMF) would help the government reduce value against foreign currencies increase the funds it specifies for so- vestors concessions for farm land delegation that is reviewing Egypt’s the budget deficit and move ahead overnight. For an import-dependent cial protection programmes.” for the first time, an official docu- economic reforms before dispens- with development while channel- country such as Egypt, this was a Mo’eit said the Finance Ministry ment stated, as the oil producer ing $2 billion, the fourth tranche of ling more funds into health and edu- major economic strain, although the would set aside $34 billion in the seeks to boost food output and a $12 billion loan that was agreed to cation sectors. government promised it would pay new budget for social protection reduce reliance on imports. in 2016. “The current subsidy system re- long-term dividends. programmes. Under the plan any foreign IMF First Deputy Managing Direc- wards the rich at the expense of the Those dividends are now coming “We will specify this money to investor would need to work in tor David Lipton said Egypt could poor,” said Farag Abdel Fattah, an in, officials said, as shown by im- mitigate the effects of the subsidy partnership with the state or a pri- not afford to delay reductions in economics professor at Cairo Uni- proving growth and employment cuts on the poor,” he said. “We also vate Algerian firm, the document costly energy subsidies or it would versity. “This is why getting money rates. have plans to prevent the same cuts seen by Reuters said. strain the budget at a time of high off the subsidies that go for the rich The economy is growing at 5% this from negatively affecting the middle Algeria, an OPEC member, has global oil prices. and giving it to the poor is a neces- year and the growth rate next year is class.” encouraged farmers with incen- tives such as low interest loans in Viewpoint a bid to cut the state’s $50 billion annual costs for food and other imports. Saudi Aramco and SABIC set to (Reuters) compete in US petrochemical market Emirates airline profit more than wo of Saudi Arabia’s pledge, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin of a jointly owned petrochemical largest state-owned in- Nasser signed two MOUs valued at complex in San Patricio County, doubles on cargo dustrial powerhouses — $8 billion-$10 billion with US firm Texas. Jareer Elass Saudi Aramco and Saudi Honeywell and British company SABIC and Exxon Mobil have demand Basic Industries Corpo- Technip. enjoyed a 35-year-long partnership ration (SABIC) — are on The MOU with Honeywell would in operating two petrochemical Leading Middle East airline Tthe verge of competing against each study the use of the US firm’s tech- complexes in Saudi Arabia but the Emirates said its net profits more other for the first time in the United nology in an aromatics unit that San Patricio development would than doubled last year, mainly on States as Saudi Aramco works to would convert gasoline by-products be their first collaboration in the improved cargo business. expand its market share and grow benzene and paraxylene into 2 mil- United States and would expand The Dubai flagship carrier post- its downstream businesses with an lion tonnes annually of feedstock Saudi firm’s limited presence in the ed a 124% increase in net profit to eye to its initial public offering. for chemicals and plastics. country. $762 million in the fiscal year that Both firms are planning large- The second MOU would provide While Saudi Aramco will be capi- ended in March. scale petrochemical complexes Saudi Aramco with the use of Tech- talising on using its own crude as “We benefitted from a healthy along the US Gulf Coast. Saudi nip’s mixed-feed ethylene produc- feedstock for running its intended recovery in the global air cargo Aramco is making its first foray into tion technologies in the United US petrochemical operations, the industry, as well as the relative the US petrochemical industry and States, enabling Motiva to produce SABIC-Exxon joint venture plans to strengthening of key currencies SABIC will be building on a small 2 million tonnes a year of ethylene, take advantage of cheap and readily against the US dollar,” said Emir- existing operation. Both projects which is the primary building block available shale gas from southern ates Chairman and CEO Sheikh apparently have been blessed at the in producing plastics. Texas in producing chemicals and Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum. highest levels of the Saudi and US Saudi Aramco has stated that a plastics at the San Patricio site. governments. final investment decision on con- Ironically, it was the Saudi gov- (Agence France-Presse) In a ceremony in Houston at- structing the petrochemical com- ernment’s move in December 2015 tended by Saudi Crown Prince Mo- plex at Port Arthur is “dependent to slash subsidies on the price of hammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, on strong economics, competitive Saudi ethane — the kingdom’s pri- Saudi Aramco and several partner incentives and regulatory support.” mary feedstock for petrochemical EBRD to invest firms signed memoranda of under- Approval of the project is unlikely production — and the price of natu- standing (MOUs) to develop a giant to occur until 2019. ral gas that drove SABIC to look to $3.3 billion petrochemical complex at its Port SABIC, the Saudi petrochemical the US Gulf Coast for cheaper feed- Arthur, Texas, refinery. giant, is further along in the process stock and to a location to expand its in Jordan In 2017, Saudi Aramco’s US sub- of building a large-scale petro- petrochemical empire. sidiary Motiva Enterprises assumed chemical complex but the project The San Patricio complex is infrastructure total ownership of the Port Arthur has not yet broken ground at the estimated to cost $10 billion. Con- projects refinery, the largest in the United proposed site on the US Gulf Coast. struction is not expected to begin States, following the breakup of the SABIC, which is 70% owned until 2019 with completion slated The European Bank for Recon- joint venture that Saudi Aramco by the Saudi government and for 2021 but the joint venture has struction and Development will had with Royal Dutch Shell. With the fourth largest petrochemical reportedly already awarded more invest $3.3 billion in infrastructure full ownership of the refinery, not company in the world, announced than a dozen plant-related con- projects in Jordan, a letter of intent only can Saudi Aramco ensure that plans in the summer of 2016 to tracts. signed in Amman stated. the facility is supplied entirely with work with US oil major Exxon The incentives and circumstanc- The 3- to 5-year investment its own crude for refining, it can use Mobil to study the merits of jointly es may be entirely different for why programme will seek to develop its oil as feedstock in petrochemical building and owning a complex Saudi Aramco and SABIC are pursu- infrastructure in multiple sectors Saudi Aramco is production. in either Texas or Louisiana, with ing major petrochemical projects in across the kingdom including en- Saudi Aramco pledged to invest the focal point being a 1.8 million- the same foreign neck of the woods ergy, transportation, water, solid making its first foray $18 billion in the Port Arthur tonne-per-year ethylene plant as at roughly the same time but it will waste and municipal services, the into the US refinery, which has the capacity to well as two polyethylene plants and be fascinating to watch as the two two parties said. petrochemical process up to 603,000 barrels per one mono-ethylene glycol plant. Saudi state giants potentially vie The deal was signed by EBRD day (bpd) of crude. Motiva intends The SABIC-Exxon project gained against each other for the same President Suma Chakrabarti and industry and SABIC to boost the plant’s capacity with a traction during US President Don- customers. Jordanian Minister of Planning will be building on a target of 1.5 million bpd and move ald Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia in Imad Fakhoury. quickly into the petrochemical May 2017, when executives from Jareer Elass reports from small existing business. the two companies signed an agree- Washington on energy issues (Agence France-Presse) operation. Building on the latter part of its ment to conduct a detailed study for The Arab Weekly. 20 May 13, 2018 Society Preparing for Ramadan Ramadan brings little but misery for those trapped in Syria’s rubble

Sami Moubayed taraweeh?” In nearby Damascus, mosques remain open during prayer time but Beirut are locked in-between to prevent religious classes from taking place m Amin, a widow from or the homeless from spending the Douma, the principal night. town in Eastern Ghouta, Those who have stayed in Ghouta U looks much older than her are destroying the Qurans printed 63 years. Wrinkled, with a limp in with the emblem of Jaysh al-Islam, her left leg, she recently emerged the Islamic Army, which reigned in from six years of siege, having lost Douma from 2012-18. In previous her husband and two of her broth- years, they were found in abun- ers in the battles of the Damascus dance, distributed at mosques and countryside. in schools of Ghouta. Now posses- She resides at a state-run shel- sion of one of them is a capital of- ter in Damascus, alone, waiting fence. Hundreds have been burned to return home. Both her children in the pitch dark of night, to avoid managed to get to Europe four being spotted by security services years ago, escaping the war in their because throwing a Quran away, country on the now infamous death or tearing it apart, is not allowed in boats. The Arab Weekly met her at Islam. Gearing up for the season. Nuts are sold at a market ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan the gates of a charity organisation in Cairo. (Reuters) in Mezzeh, called Sayyed Quraysh, ahead of the start of Ramadan. Although the war in “I come here once a week to get several villages and a free box of canned food, which lasts me for one week. My children towns of Ghouta has Holy month’s preparations cannot send me money. They are ended as has the siege, making barely enough money to prices remain sky-high. live in Germany,” Um Amin said. One works at an Arabic restaurant As if prayer and Quranic reading in Arab countries dwarfed and the other teaches Arabic cours- challenges are not enough, resi- es online, she said, adding that she dents also complain about econom- refused to join them before travel ic issues, ranging from how to pay became too difficult. for meals to where to make money “I was born here and I want to die to rebuild homes. by economic slowdown “The state told us, back in 2015, here, in my home in Douma!” she said. that we would be exempted from all The Syrian woman and her fam- fees of reconstruction. They have Samar Kadi moted special Ramadan menus, in Cairo. ily are among the millions affiliated not taken that back and say that offering free delivery during the Egypt’s TV channels offer a va- neither with the government nor they are going to charge us,” said fasting month. riety of TV dramas, prank and talk with the armed opposition, regular Usman Mustapha, a carpenter from Beirut People are mostly worried about shows. TV is always busy during citizens whose life was torn apart Kafarbatna, another destroyed vil- the expenses that come with Rama- Ramadan with programmes that by the spiralling Syrian civil war. lage in Ghouta. he Muslim fasting month dan, when prices of many com- often stir up controversy and lead The holy month of Ramadan is a No fixed amount has yet been of Ramadan is an eagerly modities soar, forcing low-income to social debates. particularly harsh time for the for- set, although owners of destroyed awaited time of the year in families to scratch some traditional Ramadan in the United Arab mer residents of Ghouta, who are property fret, finding it impossi- T the Arab world. However, food items from their shopping list. Emirates, which coincides with the spending it for the first time away ble to rebuild their homes without the Ramadan spirit of joy, toler- “Ramadan is a month of getting conclusion of the “The Year of Giv- from home. “Everything was so ex- financial assistance from the gov- ance and contemplation has been together and enjoying family time ing,” marking the birth centenary of pensive during the siege” Um Amin ernment — assistance that doesn’t overshadowed in recent years by and at the same time thinking of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nayhan, noted, saying that a kilogram of seem to be coming because Syrian violence, threats of terrorism and those who are less fortunate. We the country’s founding father, is a sugar costs 7,000 Syrian pounds in coffers are empty. economic and financial crises crip- consider ourselves part of the mid- time the public and private sectors Ghouta ($16); in Damascus, it sells “Even those whose homes are pling many countries in the region. dle class and we are already wor- extend various forms of assistance for 300 pounds (less than $1). unscratched are facing very dif- In Lebanon, people had been ried about the cost so you can im- to the needy. Although the war in several vil- ficult circumstances. They don’t preoccupied with the general elec- agine how poor people feel,” said lages and towns of Ghouta has end- have regular electricity, with black- tions, which took place May 6, al- Omar Saloo, 28, a private sector ed as has the siege, prices remain outs that can last up to ten hours most forgetting that Ramadan is at employee. sky-high, said Ghada al-Sheikh, a per day. Summer is coming and the doorstep. Shy Ramadan decora- During Ramadan, iftar meals to Increases in taxes of main former schoolteacher in Arbin, also dusk is nearly at 8pm, making tions replaced the posters and slo- break the day-long fast are offered commodities, including in Eastern Ghouta. She refused to fasting in Ramadan painstakingly gans of candidates that had littered to the public at Mawaid al-Rahman, electricity and fuel, leave, despite the heavy bombing hard.” Mustapha said, adding an- the streets of Beirut for months. or charity iftars, organised by some eclipsed usually joyful of her hometown during February other worry, on what to do with the Despite the frustration of having companies. Ramadan preparations of and March. “Commodities are still children. lost their majority in parliament, “It is a way to support the poor sold on the black market, with no “Schools were closed this year the joy of Ramadan’s advent won’t and feel with them. These places many Jordanians. regard to Ramadan,” she said. and there is talk of opening them be dimmed for Sunni Muslims. are becoming increasingly crowd- “Smugglers, crooks and soldiers in the summer to compensate for “This has nothing to do with the ed, which means poverty is becom- The Community Development are in charge of everything that the lost academic year. The cost of elections. On the contrary, we can’t ing wider and wider,” Saloo said. Authority (CDA) is turning to mod- sells here and they have kept the sending the children to school is wait for Ramadan to start. We have The frenzy of gearing up for Ram- ern technology to help distribute prices of 2015-18. A bundle of bread high. Where are we going to find been preparing for the fasting de- adan in Egypt was mixed with that some of the 32,000 meals through- still sells here at ten times the price money to buy the books, notebooks spite the frustrations. People are of the national team’s participation out the month in Dubai and Umm in Damascus. In the capital, it costs and uniforms? I won’t be sending happy that Ramadan is coming,” in the FIFA World Cup, led by Mo- al-Quwain. At least 10% of the 50-100 SP (Syrian pounds, $0.23- my child to school this year. said Ibtissam Jalloul, a supporter of hamed Salah. Traditional Rama- meals will be delivered by drones, $0.46). In Arbin, it can reach up to “To hell with it. I would rather he Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future dan lanterns decorating shops and which will be piloted by three vol- 1,000 SP ($4.65).” find a job to help the family make Movement. streets bear the Liverpool FC play- unteers from CDA’s Youth Council. Sheikh added: “All the mosques ends meet.” er’s face on them. Print shops are Free meals are provided through- are closed, either destroyed by reportedly doing very well by mak- out the UAE at mosques, Ramadan the bombing or transformed Sami Moubayed is a Syrian Ramadan in the United ing Salah lanterns and decorations. tents, social centres, worker camps into barracks. Where will people historian and author of “Under Arab Emirates is a time Preparations for Ramadan start- and other institutions with con- pray? Where will they attend the the Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). the public and private ed early in Egypt. In the markets, tributions generously pouring in Ramadan goodies, including nuts, from philanthropists, companies sectors extend various dried fruits and dates, were dis- and individuals from all walks of forms of assistance to the played in huge amounts, scream- life. needy. ing for the attention of passers-by Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Zayed Grand and promulgating the approach of Mosque provides a venue where “We are also looking forward to a month unmatched in its spiritual- thousands of free iftar meals are conducting taraweeh (Ramadan ity. provided every day by a taskforce prayers) and we will pray for our However, the merriment was of more than 550 volunteers from country and our leaders,” Jalloul dampened by high commodity public and private bodies. added. prices. Fatma Abdelhafez, a house- As the retail sector plays a promi- Increases in taxes of main com- wife, decided to drop nuts from her nent role in gearing up for the sea- modities, including electricity and list of to-buy things for Ramadan son, major cooperatives in the UAE fuel, eclipsed usually joyful Rama- iftars. sought to ease consumers’ burden dan preparations of many Jordani- “They are very expensive,” she by introducing Ramadan promo- ans, although there were signs of said. “The prices of walnuts, cash- tions and reductions on hundreds celebrations in the country, one of ews and almonds are almost double of products essential to the iftar the most affected by the Syrian cri- the price of last year.” table. sis. The hike in prices also affected Shops and Ramadan tents erect- traders, who complained of the Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly ed specially for late-night fetes lack of activity. Travel and Society section editor. were adorned with Islamic-themed “Nobody is buying anything. Roufan Nahhas in Amman, Amr decorations such as colourful and People come, look at the prices and Emam in Cairo and Krishna glittering crescents, lights and tra- then leave,” said Ahmed Ismail, a Kumar in Dubai contributed to Tough times. A man arranges sweets to be sold ahead of Ramadan ditional lanterns. Restaurants pro- seller at the crowded Attaba market this report. in Douma, the principal town in Eastern Ghouta. (Reuters) May 13, 2018 21 Society Religion Teaching morals to Egyptian students across religious divide

Ahmed Megahid The Ministry of Religious Endow- ments has been leading a campaign — strongly backed by the rest of the Cairo government — against religious ex- tremism. plan to use a new textbook Following the ouster of Islamist to teach morals to Egyp- President Muhammad Morsi in 2013 tian students at schools and the subsequent designation of A across the country, part of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terror- Unifying values. Students attend a class at the Talaat Harb government primary school in the a broader effort to clamp down on ist organisation, Cairo has promoted popular district of Shubra in Cairo. (AP) religious extremism, has drawn the a more tolerant and moderate form ire of Islamist conservatives. of Islam. The textbook, to be used in the This campaign is centred on However, religious conservatives dents to attend the same classes The Ministry of Education, which academic year beginning in Sep- Egypt’s schools amid other attempts reacted with anger towards the text- and learn from the same curriculum designs the curriculum and prints tember, focuses on teaching good to protect students from extremist book and plans to have Muslims and will help erase sectarian divisions. textbooks, removed controversial behaviour and tolerance to students views. Christians attend classes together. “Each religion has its own speci- material from books and added regardless of their religious back- The new textbook tries to teach Egypt’s Muslim and Christian stu- ficity and it is in nobody’s interest to lessons on religious tolerance. Al- ground. that difference is not a sin, that non- dents previously attended separate eliminate this specificity,” he said. Azhar is said to be reviewing its Religious conservatives expressed Muslims are not infidels and that the religious education classes. books and making changes to cur- fear that this is a step towards re- world is made to have enough room “This is a system that has pre- ricula taught at its schools and col- moving traditional Islamic religious for everybody, regardless of what vailed here for decades but the The textbook, to be used leges. studies classes from the curriculum. one believes, Religious Endow- problem is that it is creating little in the academic year These moves came after Egyptian “This is the reality: The govern- ments Minister Mohamed Mokhtar room for tolerance,” said Ahmed President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called ment wants to eliminate the religion Gomaa said. Zayed, a sociology professor at Cairo beginning in September, for religious reform. classes and they are paving the way “We are badly in need of teach- University. “The same system has focuses on teaching good Gomaa said the new textbook for this by teaching this new text- ing such a book because we need failed to unite Egyptians around the behaviour and tolerance. would not substitute for religion book,” Salafist preacher Sameh Ab- to raise a new generation of Egyp- same values and ideals.” classes at schools but would repre- del Hamid said. “Do we really need tians who share the same values and Christians make up almost 10% Egypt has taken several measures sent a major step forward in unify- the new book when religion books know how to respect each other’s of Egypt’s population. For the most to prevent extremist religious views ing the values and morals of Egyp- contain all the values and ideals beliefs and way of thinking,” Gomaa part, Muslims and Christians live from gaining mainstream recogni- tians across the religious divide. contained in it?” said. peacefully together, although there tion. “We only want our children to The plan to use the new book was Gomaa confirmed that the new have been cases of intolerance and Gomaa and others at the ministry agree on a certain set of morals, be announced in April by the Ministry book was approved by al-Azhar, the Christians have complained about removed extremist books, audio averse to violence and tolerate dif- of Religious Endowments, which highest religious authority in Egypt, an inability to legally build churches media from the libraries of Egypt’s ferences,” Gomaa said. “These are regulates the country’s mosques and the Coptic Orthodox Church, in the country. more than 100,000 mosques all values important to spread as we and determines which Islamic stud- which is followed by most of Egypt’s Nevertheless, Abdel Hamid said and cracked down on hard-line fight this ferocious war against ex- ies courses are taught in schools. Christians. forcing Muslim and Christian stu- preachers. tremism.” Viewpoint El Ghriba offers rare example of religious tolerance for Muslims, Christians and Jews

he island of Djerba in North Africa, relations between girls and one for Jewish boys. row street, a large crowd sang old is just off Tunisia’s Jews and Muslims seesawed but As for the synagogue, it stands on Tunisian songs accompanied by an southern shore, 294km never were Jews treated with the the site of a much older building. A orchestra and traditional Tunisian Francis Ghilès from Tripoli. Yet the callousness shown to them by synagogue has been there since the dishes could be bought. By any peace that prevails in European Christians in the 13th fourth or sixth century. One of the standards of the Mediterranean Djerba is as far from century or during the 20th century. legends associated with its found- of 2018, this was an extraordinary Tthe mayhem of the Libyan capital Indeed, during the second world ing claims that either a stone or a scene. as can be imagined. So is the very war, when the Germans occupied door from King Solomon’s temple Set against the country’s history peaceful relationship maintained Tunisia, from November 1942-April or the second temple is incorpo- it was not. During the second world by the approximately 1,000 Jews 1943, many Tunisian Arab Mus- rated in the building, linking the war, the Tunisian ruler Moncef Bey who live there with their Muslim lims took an active part in sav- Jewish diaspora to “the sole sanctu- did all he could to shelter Tunisian neighbours. ing Jews, by hiding them, as did ary of Judaism,” Jerusalem. Jews from the laws of Vichy France Even more unusual in a Mid- Khaled Abdul-Wahab in his olive In modern times, local Tunisian and the Germans while the nation- dle East where wounded identi- oil processing plant in Mahdia or Jews are distinguished by their alist leader, who became Tunisia’s ties clash daily, often unleashing dressed up as farmhands as other dress. They are few compared to the first president after independence, bloody mayhem, millions of refu- big landowners did. 105,000 who lived in Tunisia before Habib Bourguiba, would have no gees and failed states, the annual Abdul-Wahab was the first Arab to independence from France in 1956 truck with Marshal Petain or Benito pilgrimage to El Ghriba involves be nominated to recognition at the but are a reminder of the days when Mussolini. the happy mingling of Jews and Yad Vashem memorial in Jerusalem religion was less instrumentalised Bourguiba gave women equal Muslims. as one of the Righteous Among the by politicians, when people consid- rights in 1956, decades before It was the case again this year, as Nations — non-Jewish individu- ered themselves Tunisian before women won theirs in Italy or Spain. citizens of Djerba came to share the als who helped Jews escape the being Jews, Muslims or Christians. One of his successors, President Beji celebration of the annual festival murderous policy of the Nazis. Among the 5,000 pilgrims to El Caid Essebsi, recently put forward with their Jewish neighbours. Hundreds of others in Tunisia and Ghriba, many were Muslim inhabit- proposals to reform the country’s El Ghriba synagogue was, legend neighbouring Algeria should be rec- ants of Djerba who shared the fes- inheritance laws, which according says, founded after the destruction ognised for saving countless Jews tivities of their Jewish neighbours. to traditional Islamic jurisprudence of King Solomon’s temple in 586BC. from the clutches of the German Young Tunisian Jews walked arm give men twice the share of women. It is more likely, however, that it Army or French Vichy officials. in arm with their Muslim friends. “Inheritance is a matter for man- was founded after the second de- Among this year’s Jewish pil- Such scenes will do little to change kind that God left to the diligence of struction of the temple in Jerusa- grims, from France, Israel and many relations between the Israelis and man,” Caid Essebsi said, adding that lem in 70AD. A Jewish necropolis in European countries, many were Palestinians or between Muslims updating religion-based laws would Gammarth, near Carthage, attests astonished to hear those stories and Jews more broadly but they of- not mean abandoning religion as to the presence of Jews in Tunisia from the second world war. fer a flicker of hope for the future. “democracy goes hand in hand with half a millennium before Christ in Senior Ashkenazi rabbis said Inside the synagogue, which respect for Islam.” what was then the thriving capital they were surprised to hear about offers a lavish exercise in blues, Tunisia’s lesson of tolerance in all of a Phoenician empire which the behaviour of Djerba’s inhabit- people mingled, talking in Hebrew, the forms it takes has been hard- spanned the western Mediterrane- ants, mostly Muslims, towards Arabic, French and English. Rabbis earned. As a young democracy, Among the 5,000 an. The Talmud mentions several their Jewish peers, notably during from London and Paris, some born the country offers to the broader Carthaginian rabbis. the months during which German in Djerba, exchanged news and communities of Muslims, Jews and pilgrims to El Ghriba, Persecution against the Jews and troops occupied the country. views. In one corner, older men Christians around the world a rare many were Muslim other Christian minorities followed The synagogue built just more drank boukha, the traditional Jew- example of tolerance, which the the legalisation of Christianity by than a century ago, lies a few ish Tunisian alcohol distilled from pilgrimage to El Ghriba illustrated inhabitants of Djerba the Roman Empire by the edict of kilometres outside the major town figs to bless the pilgrims. Boukha to perfection. who shared the Milan in 313 and Byzantine rule in of Houmt Souk in Hara Sghira. traditionally accompanies kemia, festivities of their North Africa in the sixth century. The nearby Jewish village of Hara the local equivalent of what is Francis Ghilès is an associate During the 1,400 years of Muslim Kebira, where most of the island’s known today as “tapas.” fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Jewish neighbours. rule in Tunisia and more broadly Jews live, boasts a school for Jewish In a building across the nar- International Affairs. 22 May 13, 2018 Culture

‘Portmanteau’, an artist’s lens into social and political issues

Samar Kadi fix domestic devices and objects. “It is a completely different ap- proach in Switzerland because it Beirut does follow a code, which is an in- ternational code, which is static,” screw eyelet serving as a he said. “There, every person is replacement of the lost specialised in fixing certain objects, handle of a pair of scissors, which is not the case at all in Egypt A a spoon used as the cross- and many other places.” bar of a door latch, some numbers The “code” states that an iron handwritten on the wall complete a is used for ironing clothes not for shattered clock and an iron turned heating a percolator and a spoon for upside down serves to heat a coffee eating instead of locking a door. To percolator. The odd combinations Badry, these manipulations are not that are often mocked inspired low-class botches but rather acts of “Portmanteau,” Egyptian artist resistance and a lens through which Ahmed Badry’s first solo exhibition to observe social and political is- at Letitia Gallery in Beirut. sues. The show, which is the sequel “In places like Egypt, Algeria, to Badry’s “The Provisionary that Tunisia, southern Italy, the south Lasts,” explores the way people of Spain, India, Pakistan, Brazil, look at and relate to everyday ob- people have generally the same ap- jects and their functionality. The proach towards objects. They break unusually combined objects, or the international code. The improv- hybrids as Badry defines them, are isation with objects is linked to a “temporary solutions” that last and certain class and it is mainly dictat- are meant to perform a function ed by need. For me, it is more than and regain usefulness. improvisation; it is rather creativity “I grew up surrounded by hybrid inspired by the need for survival,” Different approach. Egyptian artist Ahmed Badry. (Letitia Art Gallery) objects. I was fascinated by the way Badry said. people relate to daily life objects The exhibition includes 55 blue- in the area where I was living in lined drawings and pure white, ry saw in his hotel room in Algeria. The exhibition’s name “Portman- top of the lower is stuck under the Cairo,” Badry said. “I am attracted big sculptures made with layers of Disregarding the standard distance teau,” a word that is a linguistic bottom of the higher one. to these hybrids, which may look cardboard of some of the awkward to allow them to turn freely, the blend, was carefully chosen to re- The unusual and non-codified weird to many but I see them in the designs. The plainness and immac- valves of the shower were installed call the combination of the hybrid objects destabilise the established city all the time.” ulate aesthetic of the works create too close preventing the use of hot objects, Badry added. order or code and are the token for “The manipulation of objects an aseptic environment and en- and cold water at the same time. alternative narratives. Badry appro- enhances some functions while hance the absurdity of the objects, What names can be given to priates and recreates the neglected removing others, transforming the making the atmosphere surreal. these hybrid objects? Badry asked. The exhibition includes objects, which are by no means per- consumer into a producer and the Objects ranged from a can opener When in front of these objects, one 55 blue-lined drawings ceived as artistic, and transforms hybrid object into a full-fledged mounted on a drill to a coat hanger can certainly recognise the differ- and pure white, big them into aesthetic expressions. product,” he added. equipped with two wired light bulbs ent components but there is doubt sculptures made with Badry’s solo exhibitions include The artist spent time during his at opposite ends used as a chande- about how to call the final, entan- layers of cardboard of “Made in China” in 2009 in Basel, childhood observing the many lier. The sculpture of an oversize gled product. Switzerland; and Al Qahira in 2007 tricks Egyptians adopt to overcome pair of over-ear headphones was How to call a tin can opener en- some of the awkward in Cairo. He has participated in mechanical problems and everyday hung on the wall. A small in-ear tangled with a drill or a percolator designs. group exhibitions including “Open malfunctions but the trigger for his headphone replaced the missing heating on back of an iron? “When House,” London (2017); “Contem- works came many years later when left part of the headphone creating I started exploring possible names, Among the drawings adorning porary Artistic Revolutions: An he moved to Switzerland. a comical and clumsy imbalance I worked with linguists and semio- the immaculate white walls of the Institutional Perspective,” Beirut Used to repairing malfunctions between the two parts. ticians whom I showed pictures gallery hall is one depicting a door (2017); and “Kunst (Zeug)”, Zurich, autonomously, Badry said he was In the main hall, stood a sculp- of the hybrid objects asking them blocked by the staircase built right Switzerland (2015). astounded by the presence of spe- ture depicting two 4-metre-tall to propose names or definitions,” in front of it. In another, a landing “Portmanteau” runs until June 16 cialised technicians appointed to valves, a reproduction of what Bad- Badry said. fails to join two sets of stairs as the at the Letitia Art Gallery in Beirut. Saudi reforms open wider horizons for cartoonists

Mohamad Abdelhadi savvy people in search of instan- changes for the kingdom. It did, Arab male asking his wife to work Since then, political cartoons have taneous information rather than however, clash with conservatives out to preserve her good looks. taken centre stage because people drawn out analyses. and those who refuse diversity. Khamisi shows in his work a great realise how potent they can be in Cairo Khamisi’s career as a cartoon- This is where cartoonists can step interest in women’s issues. His establishing an immediate rapport ist spans 19 years. He began with up to the plate. drawing entered during the Fourth with readers. Many Saudi readers audi cartoonist Fahd al- Al Madina newspaper in 1999 and Cartoon Gathering also dealt with do republish cartoons on their pri- Khamisi says Saudi Arabia is moved to Al Eqtisadiah in 2004. He Saudi artists refrain from the pressures faced by working vate social media pages. experiencing an ideological won the award for the best cartoon focusing too much on women. It represented a lady work- Saudi artists do not believe in po- S clash between the old and in the competition organised by the people’s individual ing at her desk holding a pen with litical taboos. They say that a pro- the new and of sharp social and cul- Saudi Ministry of Haj in 2011. He shortcomings. one hand and a pot cover with the fessional artist does not draw to be tural changes whisking the country also won first and second places in other while bottle-feeding her baby published but to express ideas. Car- towards unfamiliar horizons. It is the Association of Saudi Cartoon- In his recent cartoons, Khamisi with her foot. toons are, in essence, a form of edi- natural these changes affect art in ists and Caricaturists competitions has focused on a variety of social Saudi cartoonists are optimistic torial art making it possible for the the kingdom in general and carica- in 2011 and 2013. topics related to social reforms in about the future of cartoons in Sau- artist to criticise negative aspects of ture in particular. Khamisi said Saudi Crown Prince the kingdom. He participated with di Arabia. When the crisis with Qa- the society. A skilled artist will find In recent months, Saudi soci- Mohammed bin Salman bin Ab- one work at the Fifth International tar broke out, cartoons criticising a way of evading censorship. ety has undergone unprecedented dulaziz’s Vision 2030 includes un- Cartoon Gathering in Cairo. Khami- Doha’s controversial policy choices Khamisi said successful cartoons changes. It is becoming possible for precedented economic and societal si’s cartoon represents a fat, sloppy were moved to the front pages. obey the fundamental aspects of women to drive automobiles, at- conciseness and intelligence in the tend football games and choose not message. In Saudi Arabia, this art to be veiled. Movie theatres have form contributed to helping Saudi reopened and musicians can once readers progress intellectually and again appear in concerts. An opera refuse dogmatic and shallow points house is in the pipeline and a na- of view in addition to having them tional orchestra has seen the light, massively use social media plat- both with French assistance. forms. Cartoon art in Saudi dailies Since the 1980s, the ban on has progressed technically and in women’s driving was fertile ground content. Artists are using more digi- for indirect and discrete criticism tal technology to improve style and through cartoons. Cartoonists have content. avoided clashing directly with the Saudi artists refrain from focus- religious establishment, which ing too much on people’s individ- championed the ban on women ual shortcomings. They also avoid from driving. Today, however, Sau- direct criticism. This is due to cul- di cartoonists sense a bigger role to tural and religious considerations play in shoring up the official re- since mockery and derision are form plans and standing up to their unacceptable religiously. Khamisi detractors. They know their carica- said a caricature or cartoon should tures can have a greater effect than be simple and focus on ironic para- the written text. doxes. The essential idea of the car- Khamisi said caricature and car- toon reflects the artist’s view and toons are at the forefront in the position towards the political, eco- battle for change in Saudi Arabia. nomic or social scene. In addition to their traditional role As Saudi society becomes more of entertaining people, cartoons accepting of fundamental changes serve as an efficient instrument and criticism, Saudi cartoonists for spreading modernist ideas and look forward to a better future for shooting down retrograde ones. themselves and their art. Because of their condensed and humorous style, cartoons are par- Mohamad Abdelhadi is an ticularly popular with technology Ironic paradoxes. Fahd al-Khamisi’s cartoon about governments’ failure to solve problems. (Fahd al-Khamisi) Egyptian journalist. May 13, 2018 23 Culture Books

BOOK REVIEW ‘Fifty Million Rising’ sheds light on Muslim women at the workplace

here is increasing just more than a decade. pressure on employ- Zahidi is head of Education, ers in the MENA Gender and Work and a member Dunia El-Zobeidi region to hire more of the executive committee at the women. Part of World Economic Forum. She works Saudi Arabia’s with businesses, government, civil Vision 2030 is to society and academia to improve Tincrease women’s participation in women’s skills, help plan their fu- the workforce from 22% to 30%. ture, implement lifelong learning There are calls for greater gender and promote gender equality. equality in matters of employ- In the first chapter, Zahidi de- ment in the rest of the Arab and scribes her shock seeing a female Muslim world. field engineer in Pakistan when she In her book “Fifty Million Ris- was 10 years old. In 1990, it was ing,” award-winning Pakistani rare to see women working. She economist Saadia Zahidi presents summarises the story of Khadija facts, figures and case studies of al-Kubra, wife of the Prophet working Muslim women, shedding Mohammad and the first business- light on the changing nature of woman to convert to Islam. She female employment in the Muslim said the story should be taught in world. greater detail in schools. The author fights stereotypes She writes: “These details were about Muslim women at the work- taught so dryly and rapidly in my place with her expert analysis. Her childhood schools — and indeed book is about the more than 50 even in schools today — that it took million Muslim women who have me until now, while researching fought social and cultural preju- this book, to realise how much dice and joined the workforce in subtle power they might hold in shaping the minds of Muslim women.” Zahidi takes the read- er on a journey through A woman’s voice for women. Award-winning Pakistani economist 16 countries across Asia, Saadia Zahidi. (Twitter) the Middle East and the Gulf. The book is filled services. She was inspired to intro- She speaks about how professional with interesting stories duce the service in Egypt where Arab women can be successful de- of successful Muslim sexual harassment in busy public spite having more responsibilities women but one story transport is on the rise. than their husbands while facing particularly stands out. Taxis in Egypt are expensive and a more rigid culture than Western Samira Negm, an Negm said she was frustrated with women. She stresses the impor- Egyptian woman, joined the long commute to work so she tance of hiring nannies and em- a multinational company started “Raye7” (“Going”) carpool- powering them. For low-income, as an engineer, designing ing service with her colleagues. low-skilled women, this chance software for smartphones, Raye7 won prizes in competi- has enabled them to provide an shortly after graduating tions and recognition from the income to their families for the first Zahidi presents facts, from university. Later she Ministry of Communications. After time, which changes the power joined another firm writing just a few months, the initiative dynamics in these poorer families. figures and case software for intelligent cars. had 11,000 cars. Negm aims to However, these women can stay studies of working She was sent to Germany to reach 1 million users by mid-2018 trapped in low-income work. Muslim women, work on a project for BMW, and expand beyond Egypt. “Fifty Million Rising” covers where she tried carpooling Other chapters address issues the MENA region as well as other shedding light on the of marriage and the expectations regions in the Muslim world such changing nature of Up against stereotypes. Muslim husbands often have of as Pakistan and Indonesia. female employment Cover of Saadia Zahidi’s their wives. “Fifty Million Rising.” Zahidi describes a TED talk by Dunia El-Zobaidi is a regular Arab in the Muslim world. Leila Hoteit, a consultant in Dubai. Weekly contributor in London. Syrian novelist Haitham Hussein converses with Agatha Christie

The Arab Weekly staff scattered in many countries to the days with the least damage possi- tobiography constitute some sort elist born in Amuda in 1978 and point that a family reunion is virtu- ble. of a constraint? Am I writing to now lives in London. He is a mem- ally impossible. Faced with the need to write, satisfy an inner desire to bare my- ber of the Authors Society of Great Beirut Starting with the flight from the Hussein wonders: “Does an au- self and others in front of my inner Britain and a member of the Scot- small Syrian town of Amuda to mirrors and in front of some read- tish PEN. He contributes to Arabic ad la yabqa ahad” Damascus then to Dubai, Beirut, ers fond of sensationalism? Isn’t newspapers and is the founder and (“Maybe None Will Cairo, Istanbul and London, Hus- it an exaggeration to say that administrator of the website alri- “ Remain”) is the title of sein described the adventures and writing is the art of stripping or waya.net. Qa new book by Syrian paradoxes he and his family faced that of delusion or even that of novelist and literary critic Haitham in search of a safe place. accusing? Is the writer stripping Hussein. The book is autobiograph- He was, in fact, apostrophising when he narrates parts of his life Hussein has painted the ical; the author recounts his ex- Christie, who had written in her or when he includes them in his life of a refugee as a periences as one of the millions of memoir “Come, Tell Me How You work?” Russian doll that Syrian war refugees forced to leave Live” about life with her archae- When people leave their coun- reproduces itself and their homes and scatter around the ologist husband Max Mallowan in try, everywhere they go is an ex- world. Amuda during the 1930s; hence the ile. This was Hussein’s experience relives its tragedy over The title of the book is a throw- subtitle of Hussein’s book. and he tried to capture some of its and over. back to Agatha Christie’s “And The novel draws the reader deep effect on his life. It was a trip Then There Were None.” The nov- into the author’s inner thoughts inside memory, a kind of peephole His novel “Hostages of Sin” was elist made another wink to Christie and feelings. Every new station into souvenirs. translated into Czech and pub- by adding the subtitle of “Agatha in Hussein’s journey to London For the author, life with all its lished in 2016. It was also adapted Christie… Come, Let Me Tell You forces him to delve inside him- events, paradoxes and anoma- into a play in Czech. Translated How I Live.” The book was pub- self and remember his past. It is a lies, remains a rich and wonderful excerpts of “Hostages of Sin” ap- lished by Mamdouh Adwan Pub- past full of sorrow, injustice and source of inspiration, so he refuses peared in an issue of the English- lishing House with funding from a wasted life that the author car- to shut the door on stories and sou- language magazine Banipal devot- the Syrian organisation Ettijahat- ried inside himself like heavy venirs that can spark other stories ed to Syrian literature. Independent Culture and the Goe- burdens. and souvenirs. Among Hussein’s other novels, the-Institut. He convinced himself that Hussein is a Kurdish-Syrian nov- all published in Arabic, are “Aram: Hussein has painted the life of a there would be no future for The Descendent of Unspoken refugee as a Russian doll that re- him under the yoke of resent- Inner thoughts. Pains,” “Needle of Horror” and “A produces itself and relives its trag- ful feelings and painful trag- Cover of Haitham Hussein’s Weed in Paradise.” He has also pub- edy over and over. He tells how his edies and that he must shed “Qad la yabqa ahad.” lished works of literary criticism extended family is separated and some of them to cross to brighter and translated plays from Kurdish. 24 May 13, 2018 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Dubai: Through May 31

An LED light show each even- ing illuminates the tapering needle-like exterior of the Burj Khalifa using a high-tech 3D moving installation known as video mapping technology. The show is organised by Hungari- an 3D dance troupe Freelusion.

Jounieh: June 16-29

The Jounieh Summer Festival, set near Jounieh Bay north of Beirut, will include perfor- mances from international A general view of Soma artists such as James Arthur, Bay resort in Egypt. Julien Clerc and Il Divo. (Ahmed Megahid) Rabat: June 22-30

The 17th Mawazine Festival Soma Bay: takes place in Rabat and fea- tures international and local musical performances. Egypt’s exclusive Cairo: June 25-July 2

Raqs of Course is a week-long Red Sea holiday Egyptian dance festival that includes workshops, competi- tions and performances. destination Marrakech: July 1-31

The Marrakech Festival of Ahmed Megahid Internationally known bands Popular Arts and Folklore have occasional concerts that add showcases traditional Moroc- another dimension to vacationing can music, dance and customs Soma Bay at Soma Bay. from through the ages. Visitors Apart from the beaches and the are invited to attend concerts, lthough it is relatively undersea wonders, Soma Bay has exhibitions and Moroccan small and little known, developed an unmatched reputa- street troupe performances. Soma Bay is among tion for being Egypt’s golfing centre. Egypt’s most attractive The 18-hole, par-72 championship Zouk Mikael: Red Sea resorts, famous golf course that cuts a velvety green July 8-16 forA its rich marine life and white, swathe through the dusty landscape sandy beaches. and Soma Bay’s golf teaching cen- Set in a renovated old souk in Situated on a secluded desert tres attract an increasing number of Kite surfers in Soma Bay resort on Egypt’s Red Sea. (Ahmed Megahid) Zouk Mikael, Lebanon, the an- peninsula 45km south of Hurghada golfers, including professionals. nual Zouk Mikael International International Airport, the upscale “Playing golf in such an environ- Summer Festival features Arab resort with its many luxurious five- ment has a different taste, in fact,” al-Naga, a secluded town overlook- sector was in recession because of a and international artists. star facilities is not necessarily suit- said Karim Ahmed, a member of ing the Red Sea that has been de- series of flight suspensions follow- able for travellers with a limited the Hurghada Tour Guides Union. clared by Egyptian authorities as a ing the bombing of a Russian pas- Carthage: budget but, considering the quality “The beautiful surroundings of golf protected zone. senger plane over Sinai in late 2015. July 13-August 15 of services, time vacationers spend courses turn golf into more than just The Egyptian government re- The same features will be Soma there is worth every penny. a sport.” cently took measures to limit access Bay’s future strength as the tourism The Carthage Festival is one “This is one of the best places on While Soma Bay is a secluded spot to the protectorate to safeguard its sector is expected to pick up after of the oldest arts and cultural the Red Sea in this country,” said for those wishing to relax in luxury if exquisite marine life and nature. flight bans end. events in North Africa, drawing Bashar Abu Taleb, head of the self- not on the water, Hurghada, known However, those measures do not However, things are unlikely to re- a mix of local and international styled Hurghada Tour Guides Un- as a party town, is only a 30-minute limit the memorable times in Sharm turn to normal until the resumption performers to Tunisia over ion. “Although the resort is not very drive away. al-Naga’s unlimited beauty. of direct flights to Sharm el-Sheikh several weeks. Performances large (5 sq.km), those who come “This is a place that really fits the and Hurghada, something Egyptian take place at the Amphitheatre here discover they have not done term ‘virgin’,” said Ahmed Ghalab, aviation officials are to discuss with of Carthage. or seen everything that is offered by Undersea scenes of the Ministry of the Environment their Russian counterparts in May. the time they leave.” colourful coral reefs and official responsible for overseeing Hotel prices at Soma Bay range Cairo: Soma Bay allows for direct con- a large variety of fish are Red Sea protectorates. “Everything $80-100 a night. During August tact with all that Egypt’s nature can a feast for the eyes. there bears the original mark of With year-round sunshine and offer: clear blue skies and crystal- nature, which is why it is different mild temperatures, Soma Bay offers Organised by the Cairo Opera clear waters with a backdrop of de- from any other place you may visit vacationers an ideal Red Sea holi- House, the annual Citadel sert hills, Abu Taleb said. Overlooking the Red Sea and on the shores of the Red Sea.” day. Festival for Music and Singing The place is an exemplary envi- boasting some of the best beaches, Still, human intervention has “Those who visit the resort once is scheduled for the Saladin ronment for water sports. There Hurghada suits all budgets. It has done a lot to turn Soma Bay into a often want to relive the experience, Citadel and the Opera House is scuba diving and snorkelling on five-star hotels and resorts and comfortable and enjoyable place. which is why there is always a flow over two weeks. The festival some of the world’s best coral reefs plenty of low-cost accommodations One of Soma Bay’s biggest attrac- of visitors to the bay,” said Ali Abul- includes concerts of classical and a steady offshore wind ensures for travellers on a limited budget. tions is Les Thermes Marins des Magd, an Egyptian doctor who has Arab music in addition to con- excellent wind- and kite-surfing. Luxurious restaurants and bars Cascades, a spectacular spa and visited Soma Bay several times in temporary performances. Undersea scenes of colourful cor- are as much available as street food thalassotherapy centre, where the the past few years. “When they are al reefs and a large variety of fish are in the traditional souks of the resort, focus is on the health properties of there, visitors find everything they Dubai: a feast for the eyes, attracting div- which are much cheaper and a lot mineral-rich seawater and seaweed. need for a great vacation: nature, September 13-15 ing enthusiasts from all parts of the more authentic. Soma Bay’s wonderful features perfect service and fun that make world. Soma Bay is also 5km from Sharm kept it afloat when Egypt’s tourism Soma Bay so popular.” The Armenian National Academic Theatre Opera and Orchestra will take to the stage at Dubai Opera to perform “The Magic Flute,” the last opera composed by Wolfgang Amade- us Mozart. “The Magic Flute” tells the story of Prince Tamino and his companion Papageno as they help the Queen of the Night and set out to rescue her daughter Pamina.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Please send tips to: [email protected] Sunset at Soma Bay resort in Egypt. (Ahmed Megahid) A view of a beach at Soma Bay resort. (Ahmed Megahid)