CEO. Press Report Political Opinion Barometer. 1St Wave 2015
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Press report Political Opinion Barometer 34 1st wave 2015 Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Contents 2 Contents 1. Technical specifications 2. Main results Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 1st wave 2015 Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 774 3 1 Technical specifications Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 1st wave 2015 Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Technical specifications 4 Summary Level of confidence: 95% Variance p=q=50% Sample size: 2,000 individuals Sampling error: + 2.69% Scope: Catalonia Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia Method of data collection: Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) Sampling procedure: Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex, age and place of birth crossed quotas. Town size is divided into 6 categories: • less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants • from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants • from 10,001 and 50,000 inhabitants • from 50,001 and 150,000 inhabitants • from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants • more than 1 million inhabitants To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2013. The age quotas correspond to the following intervals: • 18 to 24 years of age • 25 to 34 years of age • 35 to 49 years of age • 50 to 64 years of age • 65 and more years of age Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Technical specifications 5 Sample size: 2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution: • Barcelona 800 • Girona 400 • Lleida 400 • Tarragona 400 Allocation: Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by the following territorial weights: • Barcelona 1.8650318387 • Girona 0.4675226517 • Lleida 0.2841606232 • Tarragona 0.5182530476 Sampling error: The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are: • Barcelona + 3.46% • Girona + 4.90% • Lleida + 4.90% • Tarragona + 4.90% Fieldwork: The fieldwork has been performed by Opinòmetre, from the 9th of February to the 2nd of March 2015. Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Technical specifications 6 Methodological note: Since 2014, the Public Opinion Barometer has changed its method of data collection and now uses face-to-face interview (CAPI) with a new periodicity of three times a year. It has also included a number of changes in the questionnaire (omission of some old questions and addition of new ones, changes in scales and question order). Therefore, when comparing past waves with new ones, these aspects should be taken into consideration. Some trend figures presented in this abstract refer to a telephone survey (CATI) performed in December 2014, the Survey about the Catalan political situation, 2014. 7 2 Main results Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 1st wave 2015 Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Political values 8 Question 56 Tell me, please, to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: (N=2,000; simple response; %) Religion should not have any influence on politics 57.2 32.2 4.2 3.7 1.51.2 Someone in full use of his mental faculties should be 49.6 34.9 5.0 6.2 2.0 2.2 allowed to decide when to die The government should take measures to reduce 42.6 44.5 5.7 4.0 1.4 1.8 differences in income levels Gay and lesbian couples should be able to adopt children 41.0 33.9 7.8 9.9 5.3 2.2 in the same conditions as heterosexual couples The school should teach children to obey authority 14.0 41.2 16.6 19.7 7.0 1.7 Whatever the circumstances, the law should always be 12.3 32.8 18.5 27.4 7.8 1.2 obeyed With so much immigration, one does not feel at home 10.8 24.2 12.1 31.2 19.9 1.8 anymore The less the government intervenes in the economy, the 8.8 22.8 18.6 34.0 8.8 7.0 better it is for the country Economic growth has to have priority over the protection of 7.1 20.7 14.8 36.3 17.9 3.4 the environment Taxes should be reduced, even if it implies cutting on 5.6 14.9 14.2 43.3 18.9 3.0 public services and benefits 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Desagree Strongly disagree Dk + Na Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Political values 9 Relations between Catalonia and Spain Question 29 Do you think that Catalonia has achieved... (N=2,000; simple response; %) 80 70 64.1 60 50 40 30 23.9 20 7.0 10 3.9 1.1 0 Too much autonomy A sufficient level of autonomy An insufficient level of Does not know Does not answer autonomy 100 72,5 71,6 71,2 70,4 69,2 80 68,1 66,5 68,4 66,6 65,3 63,7 65,9 65,3 65,7 64,0 64,1 60,3 61,6 62,6 61,4 62,7 62,0 62,0 60,8 60,5 61,8 62,0 57,5 59,0 60 52,8 52,4 51,6 37,4 34,5 35,9 31,8 31,0 29,4 31,2 29,9 29,1 40 28,1 28,9 27,9 29,0 27,2 28,0 28,4 26,5 28,0 26,2 24,6 24,0 26,0 23,9 24,2 23,9 21,3 21,7 21,7 18,6 19,2 19,1 20,6 20 5,2 5,0 4,9 5,0 5,1 4,9 5,5 3,9 4,1 3,3 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,6 4,0 3,1 3,9 3,8 3,4 3,3 4,6 4,6 4,4 4,4 3,3 3,9 3,8 4,6 3,9 2,3 2,6 3,9 0 Jul. 06 Jul. 07 Jul. 10 Oct 11 Oct Feb.12 Feb.13 Oct. 06 Oct. 07 Oct. 08 Apr. 08 Oct. 09 Apr. 10 Apr. 12 Oct. 14 Oct. Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. Feb. 15 Feb. Nov. 06 Nov. 07 Nov. 09 Nov. 13 Nov. 14 Des. June June 08 June 09 June 12 June 13 June June 10 June 11 March 07 March 14 March Too much autonomy Sufficient Insufficient Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Political values 10 Question 30 Do you believe that Catalonia should be... (N=2,000; simple response; %) 50 39.1 40 30 26.1 24.0 20 10 5.3 3.4 2.0 0 A region of Spain An autonomous A state in a federal Spain An independent state Does not know Does not answer community of Spain (status quo) 47,0 48,5 45,2 50 46,4 44,3 38,2 40 35,2 33,3 34,7 33,2 34,0 39,1 33,0 30,4 30,8 28,7 30 31,0 30,9 31,9 31,8 31,2 25,5 22,4 22,8 21,3 23,3 24,0 29,5 30,3 29,0 28,2 26,1 20 24,3 25,2 24,5 27,8 25,4 21,5 25,5 19,4 19,1 20,7 21,2 18,6 20,0 5,4 10 6,9 7,3 5,9 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,2 5,7 4,0 4,4 4,6 5,4 2,6 3,4 0 Jan. 10 Apr. 10 June 10 Oct 10 Jan. 11 June 11 Oct 11 Feb.12 June 12 Oct. 12 Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 March 14 Feb. 15 A region of Spain An autonomous community of Spain (status quo) A state in a federal Spain An independent state Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Political values 11 Question 31 And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?” (N=2,000; simple response; %) Yes 44.1 No 48.0 Survey about the Catalan political situation. 2014 Does not know 6.0 Yes 44.5 No 45.3 Does not answer 1.8 Does not know 7.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Does not answer 2.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Political values 12 Question 31 And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?” (N=2,000; simple response; %) Vote intention to the Catalan Parliament Yes 44.1 11.9 78.7 91.9 6,0 24.3 0.3 89.7 15.2 No 48,0 88.1 17.2 6.1 86.2 62.3 94.8 6.1 79.2 Dk/Na 7.8 0,0 4.1 2.1 7.8 13.3 4.9 4.2 5.6 Real base 2000 47 304 367 121 60 124 159 209 Weighted base 2000 45 265 346 136 77 153 145 233 (*) Non-significant results Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015 Political values 13 Question 45 Do you consider yourself an independentist? (N=2,000; simple response; %) Dk+Na; 3.2% Yes, I have always been [an independentist]; 24.1% No, I don’t consider myself an independentist; 54.4% Yes, I have become [independentist] during these last years ; 18.3% Press Report, BOP.