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The Potential of Sustainable Liquid Biofuel Production in Rwanda a Study on the Agricultural, Technical and Economic Conditions and Food Security Published By

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The Potential of Sustainable Liquid Biofuel Production in Rwanda a Study on the Agricultural, Technical and Economic Conditions and Food Security Published By Division Agriculture, Fisheries and Food The potential of sustainable liquid biofuel production in Rwanda A study on the agricultural, technical and economic conditions and food security Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Division Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Promotion of Agriculture and Food Section Postfach 5180 65726 Eschborn T +49 61 96 79-0 F +49 61 96 79-11 15 E [email protected] I www.giz.de Contact Dr Thomas Breuer, GIZ Planning Officer, [email protected] Authors Vanessa Zeller, Anastasios Perimenis, Jens Giersdorf, Franziska Müller-Langer, Dr Daniela Thrän (German Biomass Research Centre); Dr Valens Mulindabigwi (Agricultural scientist, Institute of Ethnology, University of Cologne); Julia Sievers (GIZ, Sector Project Agricultural Policy and Food Security, Division Agriculture, Fisheries and Food) Photos Dr Valens Mulindabigwi: Fig. 12; Fig. 21; Jatropha B and C; Moringa D and E; Castor A Vanessa Zeller: Jatropha A; Moringa A, B and C; Castor B; Sugarcane Copyright © 2005 David Monniaux: Cassava A Copyright © Iwata Kenichi: Cassava B The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH was formed on 1 January 2011. It brings together the long-standing expertise of DED, GTZ and Invent. For further information, go to www.giz.de. Eschborn, February 2011 Table of Contents Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive summary........................................................................................................................... 6 I. Background and Objectives.................................................................................. 12 Approach and scope of the study ........................................................................... 12 II. Framework .............................................................................................................. 14 II.1 Natural resources and demography ........................................................................ 14 II.1.1 Climate and soil conditions...................................................................................... 14 II.1.2 Land use.................................................................................................................. 16 II.1.3 Land distribution and land tenure............................................................................ 18 II.1.4 Population................................................................................................................21 II.2 Agriculture ............................................................................................................... 22 II.3 Food security ........................................................................................................... 25 II.4 Energy sector .......................................................................................................... 28 II.4.1 Energy policies ........................................................................................................ 28 II.4.2 Energy supply and demand .................................................................................... 28 II.5 Transport sector ...................................................................................................... 30 III. Potentials Analysis ................................................................................................ 32 III.1 Agricultural system analysis .................................................................................... 32 III.1.1 Definitions and approach......................................................................................... 32 III.1.2 Development of the cultivated area in Rwanda ...................................................... 35 III.1.3 Profitability of current cropping systems ................................................................. 37 III.1.4 Profitability of intensified cropping systems ............................................................ 38 III.1.5 Profitability of cropping systems on marginal lands................................................ 42 III.1.6 Farming systems for energy crops in Rwanda........................................................ 43 III.1.7 Possible energy crops for biofuel production in Rwanda........................................ 45 III.2 GIS and GAPP-based potential analysis ................................................................ 51 III.2.1 Definitions................................................................................................................ 51 III.2.2 Potential on agricultural areas (GAPP modelling) .................................................. 51 III.2.3 Potential for energy crops in integrated systems.................................................... 56 III.2.4 Potential of marginal land........................................................................................ 60 III.3 Food security analysis ............................................................................................. 62 III.3.1 Definitions and concepts ......................................................................................... 62 III.3.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 64 III.3.3 Food security analysis: Food availability................................................................. 66 III.3.4 Food security analysis – Food access .................................................................... 74 III.3.5 Food security analysis – Utilisation......................................................................... 80 III.3.6 Food security analysis – Stability of food security .................................................. 81 III.3.7 Implications for the biofuel potentials analysis........................................................ 82 III.3.8 Conclusion...............................................................................................................85 IV. Technical- economic Analysis.............................................................................. 86 IV.1 Technical analysis ................................................................................................... 86 IV.1.1 Biodiesel production ................................................................................................ 87 IV.1.2 Bioethanol production.............................................................................................. 88 IV.1.3 Product properties ................................................................................................... 88 IV.2 Economic analysis ................................................................................................... 91 IV.3 Scenario building ..................................................................................................... 93 IV.3.1 Scenario 1 ............................................................................................................... 93 IV.3.2 Scenario 2 ............................................................................................................... 95 IV.3.3 Scenario 3 ............................................................................................................... 96 IV.3.4 Scenario 4 ............................................................................................................... 99 IV.3.5 Scenario 5 ............................................................................................................. 100 IV.3.6 Overview of results................................................................................................ 101 IV.3.7 Sensitivity .............................................................................................................. 103 V. Impact Analysis .................................................................................................... 105 V.1 Environmental impacts .......................................................................................... 105 V.1.1 Impacts on global climate...................................................................................... 106 V.1.2 Land use impacts .................................................................................................. 107 V.1.3 Impacts on soils..................................................................................................... 107 V.1.4 Impacts on water ................................................................................................... 108 V.1.5 Impacts on biodiversity.......................................................................................... 108 V.1.6 Impacts on local air quality.................................................................................... 109 V.1.7 Conclusion............................................................................................................. 109 V.2 Social impacts ....................................................................................................... 109 V.3 Economic impacts ................................................................................................. 111 VI. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 115 List of figures ...............................................................................................................................
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