Legislative Report (John Farner, Irrigation Association)

Home , Brian Sandoval, Foster Friess, Robert Pittenger

Driving our story

John Farner, Irrigation Association California Agricultural Irrigation Association – September 5, 2019

© Irrigation Association 2 © Irrigation Association 3 © Irrigation Association 4 © Irrigation Association 5 © Irrigation Association 6 © Irrigation Association 7 © Irrigation Association 8 © Irrigation Association 9 © Irrigation Association 10 © Irrigation Association 11 © Irrigation Association 12 House Version of the Farm Bill

• Eliminates livestock carve‐out • Expands eligibility for EQIP contracts • Funds merged EQIP and CSP program at $2 billion in FY19, $2.5 billion in FY20, $2.75 billion in FY21, $2.935 billion in FY22 and $3.0 billion in 2023.

© Irrigation Association 13 © Irrigation Association 14 Senate Version of Farm Bill (h) WATER CONSERVATION OR IRRIGATION EFFICIENCY PRACTICE (1) AVAILABILITY OF PAYMENTS The Secretary may provide payments under this subsection to a producer for a water conservation or irrigation practice. (2) PRIORITY In providing payments to a producer for a water conservation or irrigation practice, the Secretary shall give priority to applications in which— (A) consistent with the law of the State in which the eligible land of the producer is located, there is a reduction in water use in the operation of the producer; or (B) the producer agrees not to use any associated water savings to bring new land, other than incidental land needed for efficient operations, under irrigated production, unless the producer is participating in a watershed‐wide project that will effectively conserve water, as determined by the Secretary; or (C) the water conservation or irrigation practice addresses regional drought control efforts. © Irrigation Association 15 Senate Version of Farm Bill

• Reduces the livestock carve‐out from 60% to 50% • Expands eligibility for EQIP contracts • Funds EQIP at the following levels (note that the Senate bill does not eliminate the CSP): 2019 ‐ $1.473 B 2020 ‐ $1.478 B 2021 ‐ $1.541 B 2022 ‐ $1.571 B 2023 ‐ $1.595 B • Funds the Foundation For Food and Agriculture Research at $200 million.

April 2012 Senate Agriculture Committee reports a Farm Bill

June 2012 Entire Senate passes a Farm Bill

July 2012 House Agriculture Committee reports a Farm Bill

Oct. 2012 The 2008 Farm Bill expired (some programs including SNAP continued through appropriations)

Dec. 2012 The 2008 Farm Bill extended for one year

May 14, 2013 Senate Agriculture Committee reports a second Farm Bill

May 15, 2013 House Agriculture Committee reports a second Farm Bill

June 10, 2013 Entire Senate passes second Farm Bill

June 20, 2013 House’s second Farm Bill fails on the House floor (195‐234, 62 Republicans voted against)

July 2013 House passes a “Farm Only” Bill

Sept. 2013 House passes a “Nutrition Only” Bill

Oct. 2013 Conference Committee meets to reconcile House and Senate bills

Jan. 2014 House passes Conference Report

Feb. 4, 2014 Senate passes Conference Report

Feb. 7, 2014 President Obama signs the 2014 Farm Bill into law at Michigan State University

June 21, 2018 House vote Current status For 213 Introduced Passed Passed in House committee House 4/12/18 5/3/18 6/21/18 Against 20 191 Resolving Signed differences into law Introduced Passed Passed in Senate committee Senate June 28, 2018 Senate vote 6/11/18 6/13/18 6/28/18

• Deadline: September 30, 2018 For 39 48 • First House vote failed due to opposition from the Freedom Caucus • The House and Senate have both voted to advance to conference committee Against 11 • House is in summer recess until early September

Previous actions in 2018

January 30: March 19: April 12: May 18: July 31: Sec. Perdue releases Democratic Rep. Conaway The Farm Bill fails The Senate agreed by the Trump admin’s members of the introduces the Farm on the House floor voice vote to move to “Farm Bill House Agriculture Bill with tightened after the Freedom conference Legislative Committee cease all work provisions for Caucus withholds committee. The Principles,” calling negotiations over SNAP, provoking supports until House already for state flexibility to reported SNAP unified opposition to Republican agreed to do so on set SNAP changes; Chairman the legislation from leadership brings July 18. The first requirements and no Conaway refuses to Democrats immigration votes to meeting will not be increases to crop release the full Farm the floor until after summer insurance subsidies Bill text recess

Subject House version Senate version • Eliminates the individual farm coverage under • Makes no major changes Crop insurance ARC, must use county‐wide data • Reduces Adjusted Gross Income limit from Commodity • Maintains reference prices for almost all $900,000 to $700,000 commodities in Price Loss Coverage programs • Does not limit payouts • Creates a 20 hour per week work requirement SNAP for ABWDs • Makes no major changes • Increases the ABWD age from 50 to 60

• Suspends new enrollment in the Conservation • Reduces acres covered under CSP and funding for EQIP Conservation Stewardship Program programs • Increases EQIP spending programs • Increases CRP acres from 24 million to 25 million • Increases CRP acres from 24 million to 29 million

• Recreates the position of under secretary for rural • Makes no major changes USDA structure development • No Democrats offered amendments to the bill • Many Democratic amendments were offered and in committee adopted in committee Bipartisan support • All Democrats voted against the bill in • All Democrats on the Agriculture Committee voted for committee and on the House floor the bill

• Adds Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R‐KY) hemp • Does not address the issue Hemp legalization legalization bill

Pat Roberts (R‐KS) Debbie Stabenow (D‐MI)

Mitch McConnell (R‐KY) Patrick Leahy (D‐VT)

Mike Boozman (R‐AR) Sherrod Brown (D‐OH)

John Hoeven (R‐ND) Heidi Heitkamp (D‐ND)

Joni Ernst (R‐IA)

Agriculture Education and Workforce Foreign Affairs Republicans Republicans Republicans 1. Mike Conway (TX-11) 1. Virginia Foxx (NC-5) 1. Ed Royce (CA-39) 2. Glenn Thompson (PA-5) 2. Rick Allen (GA-12) 2. Steve Chabot (OH-1) 3. Bob Goodlatte (VA-6) Democrats Democrats 4. Frank Lucas (OK-3) 1. Alma Adams (NC-12) 1. Eliot Engel (NY-16) 5. Mike Rogers (AL-3) 6. Austin Scott (GA-3) Energy and Commerce Natural Resources 7. Rick Crawford (AR-1) Republicans Republicans 8. Vicky Hartzler (MO-4) 1. John Shimkus (IL-15) 1. Rob Bishop (UT-1) 9. Rodney Davis (IL-13) 2. Kevin Cramer (ND-AL) 2. Bruce Westerman (AR-4) 10.Ted Yoho (FL-3) Democrats Democrats 11. David Rouzer (NC-7) 1. Paul Tonko (NY-20) 1. Raul Grijalva (RM, AZ-3) 12. Roger Marshall (KS-1) 13. Jodey Arrington (TX-19) Financial Services Science, Space, & Tech. Democrats 1. Collin Peterson (MN-7) Republicans Republicans 2. David Scott (GA-13) 1. Jeb Hensarling (TX-5) 1. Ralph Abraham (LA-5) 3. Jim Costa (CA-16) 2. Sean Duffy (WI-7) 2. Neal Dunn (FL-2) 4. Tim Walz (MN-1) Democrats Democrats 5. Marcia Fudge (OH-11) 1. Maxine Waters (CA-43) 1. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30) 6. Jim McGovern (MA-2) 7. Filemon Vela (TX-34) Trans. & Infrastructure Oversight & Gov’t Reform 8. Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM- Republicans Democrats 1) 1. Jeff Denham (CA-10) 1. Stacey Plaskett (VI) 9. Ann Kuster (NH-2) 2. Bob Gibbs (OH-7) 10.Tom O’Halleran (AZ-1) Democrats 1. Cheri Bustos (IL-17)

Reauthorization of major programs • Higher Education Act • NDAA • Farm Bill • FAA

FY2019 appropriations

Trump administration nominations

Supreme Court vacancy

Higher Education Act (HEA) House Committee Full House Resolved • Authorizes many major education Senate Committee Full Senate Differences programs, usually for four years Dec. 1, 2017: H.R. 4508 passed House Education and the Workforce Committee

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) House Committee Full House Resolved • Defines the next year’s military strategy and Senate Committee Full Senate Differences funding levels, and usually includes reforms to other government entities May 24, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed House (351-66) June 18, 2018: Passed Senate with amendment (85- 10) Farm Bill August 13, 2018: Signed by the president • Authorizes through 2023 most agricultural House Committee Full House Resolved support and food assistance programs, Senate Committee Full Senate Differences including SNAP June 21, 2018: H.R. 2 passed House (213-211) • Also includes some rural infrastructure June 28, 2018: Passed Senate with amendment spending (86-11)

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) House Committee Full House Resolved • Approves five years of funding for the FAA Senate Committee Full Senate Differences in addition to other policy reforms April 27, 2018: H.R. 4 passed House (393-13) including drones and funding for some infrastructure projects

Subcommittee Full committee Full House/Senate Conference Signed

House 5/9/18 5/16/18 N/A N/A Agriculture President Senate 5/22/18 5/24/18 N/A N/A

Commerce/ House 5/9/18 5/17/18 N/A N/A Justice/ President Science Senate 6/12/18 6/14/18 N/A N/A

House 6/13/18 6/13/18 6/28/18 N/A Defense President Senate 6/26/18 6/28/18 8/23/18 N/A

House 5/7/18 5/16/18 6/8/18 N/A Energy and President Water Senate 5/22/18 5/24/18 6/25/18 N/A

House 6/13/18 6/13/18 7/19/18 N/A Financial President Services Senate 6/19/18 6/21/18 8/1/18 N/A

House 7/19/18 7/25/18 N/A N/A Homeland President Security Senate 6/19/18 6/21/18 N/A N/A

Subcommittee Full committee Full House/Senate Conference Signed

House 5/15/18 6/6/18 7/19/18 N/A Interior & Environment President Senate 6/12/18 6/14/18 8/1/18 N/A

Labor/ House 6/15/18 7/11/18 N/A N/A HHS/ President Education Senate 6/26/18 6/28/18 8/23/18 N/A

House 4/26/18 5/8/18 6/8/18 N/A Legislative President Branch Senate 6/12/18 6/14/18 6/25/18 N/A

Military House 4/26/18 5/8/18 6/8/18 N/A Construction/ President Veterans Affairs Senate 6/5/18 6/7/18 6/25/18 N/A

State/ House 6/13/18 6/20/18 N/A N/A Foreign President Operations Senate 6/19/18 6/21/18 N/A N/A

House 5/16/18 5/23/18 N/A N/A Transportation/ HUD President Senate 6/5/18 6/7/18 N/A N/A

Status of key positions requiring Senate confirmation

AS OF SEPTEMBER 4, 2018 ■ No nominee ■ Awaiting nomination ■ Awaiting confirmation ■ Confirmed

Vacant cabinet secretaries: • Environmental Protection Agency (no nominee)

156

357 Departments without a deputy secretary: • Commerce (Karen Dunn Kelley nominated) 185 • Treasury (Justin George Muzinich nominated) • Veterans Affairs (no nominee) • Homeland Security (no nominee) • Small Business Administration (no nominee)

A look ahead to the 2018 congressional and gubernatorial elections

President’s party gain/loss of seats in House VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS ■ Democrats ■ Republicans ‐13 2014 2010: Democrats ‐63 2010 lose control of the ‐30 2006 House after +8 2002 passing the ACA +5 1998 1994: Democrats ‐52 1994 lose their House ‐8 1990 majority due to ‐5 1986 health reform ‐26 1982 plans and Gingrich’s ‐15 1978 “Contract with ‐48 1974 America” ‐12 1970 ‐47 1966 ‐4 1962 ‐48 1958 ‐18 1954 ‐29 1950 ‐45 1946

President’s party gain/loss of seats in Senate VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS Democrats Republicans ■ ■ 2014

Surge and decline theory 1 When presidents are elected or reelected, their party picks up House and Senate seats, causing them to be 1 overexposed in the following midterm election, or six years 1 later in the Senate 2

5 1914

1994 elections 2010 elections President: Bill Clinton (D) President: Barack Obama (D) Republican gains: 2006 elections Republican gains: President: George W. Bush (R) 54 seats in the House 63 seats in the House Democratic gains: 8 seats in the Senate 6 seats in the Senate 31 seats in the House 6 seats in the Senate

Presidential job approval vs. midterm results since 1966

66% 63% 63% 57% 58% 52%

49% 47% 46% 43% 45% 42% 39% 5 8

-5 -8 -12 -15 -13 -26 -30 -47 -48 -52 -63

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Trump Job Approval Job Approval Average Change 43.3% Over 60% +3 Seats 50%-60% -12 Seats RCP Average: August 30, Under 50% -40 Seats 2018

House of Representatives Senate

Total Republicans 236 Total Republicans 51

Total Democrats 193 Total Democrats/Independents 49

Vacancies 6 Vacancies 1

Vulnerable seats based on 2016 House results

MARGIN OF VICTORY CALCULATED BY SUBTRACTING WINNER % FROM 2ND HIGHEST OPPONENT ■ Dem.-held seats ■ GOP-held seats 68

42 37

26 23 17 15 13 10 5

Less than 5% Less than 10% Less than 15% Less than 20% District won by other party's presidential nominee

Top 10 House candidates with the most cash on hand AS OF JUNE 30, 2018 ■ Democrat ■ Republican

DEVIN NUNES (R-CA22) $6,108,635

JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-NJ5) $4,533,753

RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-IL8) $4,362,699

ADAM SCHIFF (D-CA28) $4,342,230

JOE KENNEDY, III (D-MA4) $4,170,667

KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CA23) $4,135,573

LLOYD DOGGETT (D-TX35) $4,004,938

RICHARD NEAL (D-MA1) $3,449,785

ANN WAGNER (R-MO2) $3,388,132

GERRY CONNOLLY (D-VA11) $3,203,173

34 Trump’s endorsees have won almost all contested races so far

Election Date Endorsee Result AZ 08 2/27/18 Debby Lesko Special election win TX SEN 3/7/18 Ted Cruz Primary win PA 18 3/14/18 Rick Saccone Special election loss CA GOV 6/5/18 John Cox Primary win PA SEN 6/12/18 Lou Barletta Primary win MS SEN 6/12/18 Roger Wicker Primary win ND SEN 6/12/18 Kevin Cramer Primary win Pennsylvania State Rep. Rick Saccone NV GOV 6/12/18 Adam Laxalt Primary win is the sole general election exception SC 01 6/12/18 Katie Arrington Primary win • Saccone lost the March 13, 2018 PA- SC GOV 6/12/18 Henry McMaster Primary win 18 special election to Democrat NY 11 6/26/18 Dan Donovan Primary win Conor Lamb 49.86%-49.53% UT SEN 6/26/18 Mitt Romney Primary win AL 02 7/17/18 Martha Roby Primary win GA GOV 7/24/18 Brian Kemp Primary win TN SEN 8/2/18 Marsha Blackburn Primary win TN 08 8/2/18 David Kustoff Primary win MI SEN 8/7/18 John James Primary win OH 12 8/7/18 Troy Balderson Special election win KS 03 8/7/18 Kevin Yoder Primary win MI GOV 8/7/18 Bill Schuette Primary win WY SEN 8/20/18 John Barrasso Primary win Businessman Foster Friess is the sole WY GOV 8/20/18 Foster Friess Primary loss primary election exception this year AZ GOV 8/28/18 Doug Ducey Primary win • Friess lost the August 22, 2018 FL 01 8/28/18 Matt Gaetz Primary win Wyoming gubernatorial primary to FL GOV 8/28/18 Ron DeSantis Primary win Wyoming State Treasurer Mark LA 03 11/6/18 Clay Higgins tbd Gordon 32% to 25% TX GOV 11/6/18 Greg Abbott tbd

35 Three open Republican seats are rated “Likely Democratic,” and four open Republican seats are rated “Lean Democratic”

Representatives not seeking re-election in D-leaning districts

NAME OF RETIRING INCUMBENT (“PARTISAN VOTER INDEX”), (PARTY-STATE- DISTRICT)

Solid Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic

D+33 Luis Gutierrez (D-IL04) D+32 John Conyers (D-MI13)† D+31 Robert Brady (D-PA04) Ruben Kihuen D+19 Gene Green (D-TX29) Jacky Rosen Carol Shea-Porter (D+3) (R+2) (R+2) D+17 Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI01)* (D-NV04) (D-NV03)* (D-NH01) Beto O’Rourke (D-TX16)* D+9 Jared Polis (D-CO02) Niki Tsongas (D-MA03) Ryan Costello Frank LoBiondo Ileana Ros-Lehtinen D+7 Michelle Lujan Grisham (R+2) (R+1) (D+5) (D-NM01) (R-PA06) (R-NJ02) (R-FL27) D+6 John Delaney (D-MD06) D+4 Sandy Levin (D-MI09) Kyrsten Sinema (D- Patrick Meehan Darrell Issa (R+1) AZ09)* Martha McSally (R+1) (R-CA49) (R+1) Elizabeth Esty (D- (R-PA05) † (R-AZ02)* CT05)*

Rodney Frelinghuysen(R+3) (R-NJ11)

36 Five open Republican seats and two open Democratic seats are rated “Toss Ups”

Representatives not seeking re-election

NAME OF RETIRING INCUMBENT (“PARTISAN VOTER INDEX”), (PARTY-STATE-DISTRICT)

Republican Toss-Ups Lean Republican Solid Republican

R+9 Joe Barton (R-TX06) R+11 Tim Murphy (R-PA18) † R+13 Trent Franks (R-AZ08) † Tom Rooney (R-FL17) Dennis Ross (R+6) Steve Pearce (R+6) Dave Reichert (even) Ed Royce (even) Gregg Harper (R-MS03) (R-WA08) (R-CA39) (R-FL15) (R-NM02)* Sam Johnson (R-TX03) Robert Pittenger (R+7) Blake Farenthold (R-TX27) † (R-NC09) Bob Goodlatte (R-VA06) R+14 Kristi Noem (R-SD-AL)* David Trott (R+4) Lynn Jenkins (R+10) Paul Ryan (R+5) Mark Sanford (R+10) Lou Barletta (R-PA09)* (R-MI11) (R-KS02) (R-WI01) (R-SC01) R+15 Trey Gowdy (R-SC04) R+16 Kevin Cramer (R-ND At large)* Democratic Toss-Ups Jeb Hensarling (R-TX05) R+17 Todd Rokita (R-IN04)* Jim Bridenstine (R-OK01) † Evan Jenkins (R+23)* Tom Garrett (R+6) R+18 Luke Messer (R-IN06)* (R-VA05) (R-WV03) R+20 Marsha Blackburn (R-TN07)* Jimmy Duncan (R-TN02) Tim Walz (R+5) Rick Nolan (R+4) Likely Republican R+21 Raul Labrador (R-ID01)* (D-MN01)* (D-MN08)* R+22 Bill Shuster (R-PA13) R+7 Ron DeSantis (R-FL06) R+24 Diane Black (R-TN06)* R+10 Lamar Smith (R-TX21) R+11 Ted Poe (R-TX02) R+14 Conor Lamb (D-PA14)

37 Brain drain? Many Republican committee chairs will not seek reelection in 2018, as well as Speaker Ryan

Republican committee and subcommittee chairs retiring after 2018 REPUBLICAN CONFERENCE RULES LIMIT CHAIRMANSHIPS TO 6 YEARS

Term-limited and Retiring but not term- Term-limited but still running retiring limited

Space, Science & Technology Transportation & Infrastructure Budget Oversight Homeland Security Lamar Smith (R-TX21) Bill Shuster (R-PA9) Diane Black (R-TN6) Trey Gowdy (R-SC4) Michael McCaul (R-TX10)

Judiciary Foreign Affairs Financial Services Administration Bob Goodlatte (R-VA6) Ed Royce (R-CA39) Jeb Hensarling (R-TX5) Gregg Harper (R-MS3)

VA Appropriations Sub.* Aviation Sub. Appropriations Speaker of the House Charlie Dent (R-PA15) Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ2) Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ11) Paul Ryan (R-WI1)

38 The 2018 election will determine who will replace Paul Ryan as speaker in the 116th Congress

Frontrunners in the race for speaker of the House

Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) • Minority Leader – No. 1 House Democrat • Majority Leader – No. 2 House • Previous experience as speaker Republican • Largest Dem. fundraiser • Has ties to President Trump • Has led House Dems since 2003 • Major fundraiser for House Republicans • Lacked support in 2015 from Freedom Caucus

Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Steve Scalise (R-LA) • Minority Whip – No. 2 House Democrat • Majority Whip – No. 3 House Republican • Has been deputy to Pelosi for 15 years • Former Republican Study Committee chair • First elected in 2008 • Has some support from conservatives

Tim Ryan (D-OH) Mark Meadows (R-NC) • Long shot because he is not in • Chair of the House Freedom Caucus leadership • First elected in 2012 • Ranking member of the • Campaigned with Pres. Trump in NC Appropriations Subcommittee for the Legislative Branch • Unsuccessfully challenged Pelosi in 2016 39 Pelosi faces increasing opposition, with over 40 House candidates saying they would not back her for Speaker

Potential problems for Pelosi: • Unlike party positions such as minority and majority leader, the whole House formally votes for the speaker • Parties usually vote by secret ballot beforehand to choose their nominee, and then they vote en bloc that candidate • However, over 40 Democratic House candidates have said they will not support Pelosi for Speaker • If Democrats win the majority by just 1 vote (218- of the House, which could pose 217), Pelosi would need 109 votes to win her party’s nomination problems if they only win a small majority • In 2016, she won the minority leader position against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) on a vote of 134-63

4 0 2018 Senate candidates with the largest war chests for the midterm elections

Top 10 Senate candidates with the most cash on hand AS OF JUNE 30, 2018 ■ Democrat ■ Republican

ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA) $15,627,661

BETO O'ROURKE (D-TX) $13,961,358

BILL NELSON (D-FL) $13,699,130

CLAIRE MCCASKILL (D-MO) $12,273,208

SHERROD BROWN (D-OH) $11,094,189

KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-NY) $10,721,977

TIM KAINE (D-VA)* $10,692,748

BOB CASEY, JR. (D-PA) $9,879,748

DEBBIE STABENOW (D-MI) $9,592,965

TED CRUZ (R-TX) $9,299,365

41 Democrats hold 8 of the 10 most vulnerable Senate seats in the 2018 election cycle

Seats most vulnerable to change parties NJ Hotline’s 2018 Senate power rankings 1. Nevada: Dean Heller (R) ■ Seat held by Republican ■ Seat held by Democrat Challenger: US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) ■ Top five states most likely to flip 2. Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) Challengers: Mike Braun (R)

3. Missouri*: Claire McCaskill (D) Challenger: MO Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) 9 4 4. North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D) Potential challenger: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) 8 5. Florida: Bill Nelson (D) 1 2 10 Challengers: FL Gov. Rick Scott (R) 7 3 6. Arizona*: (Jeff Flake – Retiring) Martha McSally & Kelli Ward (R) Challenger: US Rep. Kristen Sinema (D – frontrunner) 6 7. West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) Challenger: WV Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R)

5 8. Wisconsin*: Tammy Baldwin (D) Challengers: Kevin Nicholson & Leah Vukmir (R)

9. Montana: Jon Tester (D) Challenger: MT state auditor Matt Rosendale (R)

10. Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) Challenger: US Rep Jim Renacci (R)

42 Of the 26 Democratic senators up for re-election, Trump won 10 of their states – and five by double digits

Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate PERCENTS INSIDE THE STATE REPRESENT BY HOW MUCH THE OTHER PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WON IN 2016 Clinton victory Trump victory ■ Democratic senator up for re‐election ■ Republican senator up for re‐election

Jon Tester (D) won Heidi Heitkamp (D) Debbie Stabenow (D) in 2012 by 4% Tammy Baldwin (D) won in 2012 by 0.9% won in 2012 by 21% won in 2012 by 5.6% WA Joe Donnelly (D) won in 2012 by 5.7% MT ND ME 20% 36% Dean Heller (R) won OR in 2012 by 1.2% MN Sherrod Brown (D) ID SD WI NY 0.7% MI won in 2012 by 6.0% WY 0.3% PA NV IA 0.7% NE OH Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won 2.4% IN 8.1% in 2012 by 9.1% UT IL 19% WV CO MO CA 42% VA KS 19% KY Joe Manchin (D) won NC in 2012 by 14% TN AZ OK NM AR SC Claire McCaskill (D) MS AL GA won in 2012 by 16%

AK TX LA Bill Nelson (D) won FL in 2012 by 13% HI 1.2%

43 Three Republican Senate seats are now considered among the 10 most likely to flip in November

Hotline’s 2018 Senate power rankings 1. Nevada: ■ Seat held by Republican ■ Seat held by Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip Incumbent: Dean Heller (R) Challenger: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)

2 2. North Dakota : Incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (D) Challenger: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) 1 3 3. Indiana: 4 Incumbent: Joe Donnelly (D) 5 Challengers: Mike Braun (R) 4. Missouri: Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D) Challenger: AG Josh Hawley (R)

5. Arizona: Current: Jeff Flake (R), retiring 6. Florida — Bill Nelson (D) Potential challengers: Rep. Martha McSally (R) 7. West Virginia — Joe Manchin (D) Rep. Krysten Sinema (D) 8. Montana — Jon Tester (D) 9. Tennessee — Bob Corker (R), retiring 10. Wisconsin — Tammy Baldwin (D)

44 In 2018, Republicans must defend 12 governorships without an incumbent running, as opposed to only four for Democrats

2018 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status ■ Dem. incumbent (5) ■ Dem. open* (4) ■ Ind. incumbent (1) ■ GOP incumbent (13) ■ GOP open* (13) ■ No election (14)

WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY MI WY MA IA PA NE RI NV OH UT IL IN CT CO WV CA VA KS MO KY NJ NC TN DE AZ OK NM AR SC MD

MS AL GA

AK TX LA

FL HI

45 Democrats have a shot at picking up several governorships

Hotline’s power rankings for gubernatorial elections ■ Democrat incumbent ■ Republican incumbent Seats most vulnerable to change parties 1. Illinois: Bruce Rauner (R) • Challenger: JB Pritzker (D)

2. New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) (retiring) • Challengers: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

3. Maine: Paul LePage (R) (retiring) • Challengers: Janet Mills (D) Shawn Moody (R)

4. Alaska: Bill Walker (I) • Challengers: Mike Dunleavy (R) Mark Begich (D)

5. Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) (retiring) • Challengers: Steve Sisolak (D) Adam Laxalt (R) 6. Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) (retiring) 7. Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) (retiring) 8. Florida: Rick Scott (R) (retiring) 9. Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) (retiring) 10. Ohio: John Kasich (R) (retiring)

46 © Irrigation Association 47 © Irrigation Association 48 John Farner Government and Public Affairs Director [email protected]