Strategic SSI -

DAILY SITUATION REPORT 07 NOVEMBER 2010 SAFETY AND SECURITY ISSUES RELEVANT TO SSSI PERSONNEL AND CLIENTS

STANDING THREAT ASSESSMENT (): Threat reports continue to indicate that insurgents aspire to conduct coordinated attacks in Kabul City, as such the threat remains extant. Recent threat reporting has also indicated likely reconnaissance of areas and businesses frequented by members of the international community. Although no significant attacks were carried out in Kabul during the recent parliamentary election, or indeed after the event, the recent reduction in physical security in the city may provide insurgents with exploitable opportunities to carry out attacks. Suicide and complex attacks remain the preferred choice for insurgents in order to gain maximum casualties figures and the associated high degree of media attention. It remains possible that insurgents will still seek to undermine the democratic process by conducting high profile attacks when the final results are announced. It remains prudent for international agencies in the Kabul area to maintain a high degree of security vigilance. Sporadic IDF attacks in the city centre are to be expected. Any attacks are likely to consist of between one and four 107 mm rockets launched towards the city centre.

Incidents of intimidation, executions by insurgents and targeting of government officials are increasing throughout the country. It seems to be a form of revenge by insurgents as they have lost more than 300 insurgent commanders over the past few months due to successful IM/ANSF operations.

MAJOR COUNTRY WIDE EVENTS

Kunduz: IM vehicle det IED – 3 x IM members WIA

Wardak: Ins stopped 2 supply trucks with SAF and set them on fire

Helmand: Ineffective hand grenade attack against NGO Compound

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Threat Reports Received Last 3 Days

04 Nov: Afghanistan: 06 Nov: Jawzjan: Threat of Insurgents are planning suicide attacks in Jawzjan attacks against prisons and Sari Pul Provinces 04 Nov: Kabul: Suicide attacks planned by Ins with ANA uniforms during Eid

04 Nov: Kabul: Suicide attack threat against Indian Embassy

04 Nov: Kabul: Suicide attack threat against MOI, NDS, MOD

05 Nov: Nangarhar: VBIED threat against IM/ANSF target or Daron Tah Dam

04 Nov: Khost: VBIED attack threat against target in Khost City

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BREAKDOWN OF INCIDENTS REPORTED FOR AFGHANISTAN IN SSSI DSR FOR PERIOD 06 TO 07 NOVEMBER 2010

Table illustrating the number of Killed and Wounded, Captured and Arrested as per the reporting’s of the SSSI DSR.

IM ANSF PSC/FN LN INSURGENTS

KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA ARR

01 Nov 1 1 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 9 4 0 42 3 7 02 Nov 2 7 0 8 14 15 1 1 0 9 17 3 54 4 33 03 Nov 2 11 0 7 5 3 0 0 0 18 25 0 64 14 6 04 Nov 0 4 0 3 18 0 0 4 0 10 10 3 47 9 13 06 Nov 1 1 0 11 15 0 5 0 0 19 31 0 28 9 10 07 Nov 0 5 0 5 6 -4 0 0 0 4 9 0 20 2 12 Nov-10 6 29 0 37 64 14 6 5 0 69 96 6 255 41 81

(Kindly note that these figures are from the SSSI DSR and are not official statistics and may differ from those released by IM or other agencies or organizations.) Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 3 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan

SECURITY INCIDENTS REPORTED FOR PERIOD 06 TO 07 NOV 10

CENTRAL REGION

Insurgency: 06 Nov, , Kabul City, Police District #8 – Reportedly insurgents are planning to emplace RCIEDs against road construction vehicles that are parked in the Qala Cha, Rakman Mina and Qala Barqi Areas of Police District #8.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, , Bagram District – Reportedly a known insurgent commander has recently returned from Pakistan and he deployed to the Darzab Khail Area where he is busy with the recruitment of LNs and the emplacement of IEDs along the roads in the district.

Ambush: 03 Nov, Wardak Province, – During the day insurgents ambushed a Police patrol on the MSR. The Police repelled the attack and pushed through. No casualties were reported.

IDF Attack: 03 Nov, Wardak Province, Jaghatu District – Approx at noon insurgents launched four rockets towards the District Administrative Center. The rockets impacted inside the facility. No casualties were reported.

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IED: 03 Nov, Wardak Province, – During the morning the Police located an IED in the Ibrahimn Khel Area on the main district road. An EOD Team later defused the device.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Wardak Province, Chake Wardak District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders deployed to the area with the aim to attack the Police District HQ.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Wardak Province, Chake Wardak District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Shir Khana and Ali Keramat Areas with the aim to attack the Police District HQ.

Arson: 06 Nov, Wardak Province, Saydabad District – During the day insurgents managed to stop two trucks with SAF in the Mangalio Area and to set the trucks on fire. The convoy was transporting IM supplies. No casualties were reported.

Attack: 03 Nov, , – During the night insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint in the Daud Khel Area. The Police repelled the attack and the insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported.

Operations: 05 Nov, Logar Province, – During the day a joint IM/ANSF operation was launched against a specific insurgent commander in the area. The operation was successful and the insurgent commander as well as two of his associates was arrested.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Logar Province, Baraki Barak District – Reportedly a group of approx 20 insurgents deployed to the Qala Sangi and Mullah Khel Areas with the aim to launch and an attack against the Baraki Rajan Area Police HQ.

Murder: 04 Nov, Province, Kwaja Umari District – During the morning the Police located the bodies of four Police members. The murdered Police members were part of the 15 Police members that were kidnapped in the Khogyani Area.

Murder: 04 Nov, , – During the morning insurgents shot and killed a government employee in the Khaki Ghariban Area of the Ghazni City.

IED: 04 Nov, Ghazni Province, Ghazni District – During the afternoon a Police vehicle detonated an IED in the Qala-E Qazi Area. No casualties were reported.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Ghazni Province, Shahid (Khogyani) District – Reportedly a group of approx 35 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the area with the aim to attack the Rashidan Police District HQ.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Ghazni Province, Shahid (Khogyani) District – Reportedly a group of insurgents of unknown strength deployed to the Shah Rah Area with the aim to ambush IM and ANSF movements in the .

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Ghazni Province, Shahid (Khogyani) District – Reportedly a group of approx 40 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the area with the aim to attack the Giro Police District HQ.

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Insurgency: 05 Nov, Ghazni Province, – Reportedly a group of approx 90 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the district with heavy and light weapons with the aim to attack the Giro Police District HQ.

Insurgency: 05 Nov, Ghazni Province, Qarabagh District – Reportedly a group of approx 150 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the district with heavy and light weapons with the aim to attack the Qarabagh Police District HQ.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Ghazni Province, – Reportedly a group of approx 180 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the district with the aim to attack the Police District HQ.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Ghazni Province, – Reportedly a group of approx 18 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the Sadi Khail Area with the aim to attack Police Checkpoints in the area. The group is armed with a Dushka, a Mortar, two PKMs, AK-47 rifles, and are also equipped with four handheld radios and ten motorcycles.

IED: 03 Nov, , Dehrawud District – During the afternoon a Police patrol detonated a RCIED that was attached to a motorcycle and parked at the side of a road near the Bazaar Area. Two Police vehicles were targeted. Two LNs were killed, and six more LNs were wounded.

WESTERN REGION

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Insurgency: 04 Nov, , Qaisir District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Gardan Borida Area with the aim to attack the Police District HQ.

Insurgency: 05 Nov, Faryab Province, Undefined District – Reportedly a group of approx 30 insurgents deployed to the Chaqma Village. The insurgents are wearing ANA uniforms and plan to attack Police Checkpoints.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Faryab Province, Maymana City – Reportedly four suicide bombers deployed to the city with the aim to conduct suicide attacks against government officials in the Maymana City.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Faryab Province, Qaisar, Ghormach, Pashtun Kot and Almar Districts – Reportedly the insurgent leadership in the mentioned districts instructed their men not to attack NGOs and/or their employees. The insurgents were told that they will receive new instructions.

Feud: 04 Nov, , Ghormach District – Reportedly the insurgent leadership in Pakistan appointed two known insurgent commanders as respectively the shadow District Governor and the shadow District Deputy Governor. Insurgents under their command engaged in an armed confrontation. Two insurgents were killed.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Badghis Province, District – Reportedly insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the Saqo Area with four Dushkas they have received from Iranian insurgents. Their aim is to target government and IM aircraft.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, , – Reportedly insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander was tasked to emplace IEDs along routes used by the IM and ANSF in the Chal Dokhtar and Gullah Tot Areas.

IED: 05 Nov, Herat Province, – During the day an IM vehicle detonated an IED in the Zerkhoh Area. Two IM members were wounded. Remark. Typically of insurgent information an insurgent spokesman told open sources that the IM vehicle was destroyed and that all the IM members inside of the vehicle were killed.

Intimidation: 06 Nov, Herat Province, – During the day insurgents entered an unidentified mosque in the Sayed Abad Area. The insurgents stole 200 000 Afghani from the Mullah, and warned him to leave his home.

IED: 03 Nov, , Bala Buluk District – During the morning the IM located and defused an IED in the Ab Khorma Area.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Farah Province, Farah City – Reportedly two suicide bombers of Pakistani origin is present in the Kor Ghund Area with the aim to attack targets in the Farah City.

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NORTHERN REGION

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Jawzjan Province, – Reportedly a known insurgent commander recently returned from Pakistan with a large number of suicide vests and approx 20 RCIEDs in order to attack the government and IM authorities in the Jawzjan, Faryab and Sari Pul Provinces. A meeting between the responsible insurgent commanders will be scheduled to discuss the distribution of the devices.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Jawzjan Province, – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander entered the Qush Tepa District from the Darzab District. Their intention is to link up with insurgents from the Faryab Province in order to attack the Qush Tapa Police District HQ.

Intimidation: 06 Nov, Jawzjan Province, Qush Tepa District – Reportedly insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders are extorting money from the local residents.

Miscellaneous: 06 Nov, Sari Pul Province, , Jarghan Area – Reportedly a former insurgent who surrendered to the government has defected again and rejoined the insurgency.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Sari Pul Province, Sayad District – Reportedly a group of approx 100 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Pista Mazar, Bland Ghorono, Mirza and Qaflaton Areas with the aim to launch an attack against the Sayad District Police HQ.

Operations: 03 Nov, Province, Chahar Buluk District – During the day the ANSF launched a pre- emptive strike against insurgents in the Khaspak Area as they were busy with their preparations to attack a Police patrol. Two insurgents were wounded, and four more insurgents were arrested.

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Insurgency: 05 Nov, , Chahar Bolak District – Reportedly three known local insurgent commanders held a meeting and decided to launch attacks against the Zik Zik Police Checkpoint as well as other Police Checkpoints in the Chahar Bolak and Balkh Districts.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Balkh Province, Sholgarah District – Reportedly a group of approx 30 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Qaichaq Area with the aim to attack Police Checkpoints along the Balkh to Jawzjan Highway.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Balkh Province, Sholgarah District – Reportedly a known insurgent commander is planning the kidnap and/or murder of a foreign road construction engineer in the Qaichaq Area.

Insurgency: 05 Nov, , Undefined District – Reportedly a group of approx 80 insurgents deployed to the Gul Bar Area of the Bator Mountain along the Baghlan to Kunduz Highway with the aim to attack ANSF Checkpoints.

IED: 05 Nov, Kunduz Province, Chahar Darreh District – During the day an IM vehicle detonated an IED in the Sarak-E Bala Area. Three IM members were wounded. Remark. As is the norm insurgent information exaggerated again, and claimed that four IM members were killed and three more IM members were wounded. I

Insurgency: 06 Nov, , – Reportedly a group of approx 50 insurgents that are deployed under the command of four known insurgent commanders in the district each received 10 000 to fund their operations. They also received six motorcycles. This group of insurgents is planning to kidnap and/or murder government employees.

Intimidation: 06 Nov, Takhar Province, – Reportedly a group of approx 12 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders facilitated a meeting with the local elders in the Shah Dara, instructing the local inhabitants to leave their homes.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, , Baghlani Jadid District – Reportedly a group of approx 40 insurgents deployed in the Jalo Ger Area with the aim to emplace IEDS on the highway and to ambush IM/ANSF convoys.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Baghlan Province, Dahanah-Ye Ghori District – Reportedly a known insurgent commander recently procured a ZK-1 gun with the aim ti target IMN aircraft.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Badaghshan Province, Tagab District – Reportedly insurgents concealed explosives in a plastic box and emplaces the device along the road in the Bagh Rostam Area with the aim to target IM and ANSF movements.

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EASTERN REGION

Insurgency: 04 Nov, , – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander emplaced a number of IEDs along the roads in the district to target IM and ANSF vehicles.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Laghman Province, – Reportedly a group of approx 12 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Sar Kando Area with the aim to ambush IM and ANSF movements.

Attack: 03 Nov, , Mamdesh District – During the evening insurgents attacked a Border Police Checkpoint with heavy weapons and SAF in the Gawhardish Area. The firefight lasted for approx one hour. One Border Police member and six insurgents were killed. Two more Border Police members were wounded.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Nuristan Province, – Reportedly a small group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Bagh Cha Area with the aim to attack a Police Checkpoint in the Gawhar Dish Village.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Nuristan Province, Kamdesh District – Reportedly a group of approx 35 insurgents deployed to the Gawhar Dish Area with the aim to ambush IM vehicles and to attack Police Checkpoints.

Ambush: 03 Nov, , Wata Pur District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed an IM patrol convoy with heavy weapons and SAF in the Malikana Area. The firefight lasted for approx 30 minutes. No casualties were reported.

Attack: 03 Nov, Kunar Province, Wata Pur District – During the morning insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint with heavy weapons and SAF in the Lachay Area. The firefight lasted for approx 30 minutes. No casualties were reported. Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 10 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan

Attack: 03 Nov, Kunar Province, Wata Pur District – During the evening insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint with heavy weapons and SAF in the Lachay Area. The firefight lasted for approx 30 minutes. No casualties were reported.

IDF Attack: 03 Nov, Kunar Province, – During the day insurgents launched four mortar bombs towards the Police HQ in the Chargal Area. The mortar bombs missed the intended target and impacted in an open field. No casualties were reported.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Kunar Province, Asmar District – Reortedly a group of approx 50 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the Dabror Area with the aim to ambush IM logistical convoys and Police patrols. They also plan to emplace IEDs on the roads in the area.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Kunar Province. Chapah – Reportedly a group of approx 36 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Galsalak Area with the aim to attack Border Police Checkpoints.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, , Nazyan District – Reportedly a group of approx 30 insurgents deployed to the Bara Khel Area with the aim to deploy an illegal vehicle checkpoint. The insurgents are under the command of a known insurgent commander and are dressed in ANSF uniforms. Five suicide bombers form part of the group.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Nazyan District – Reportedly insurgents informed the local farmers in the Seleman Khel Village that they will defend the LN lands which are growing opium.

Insurgency: 04 Nov, Nangarhar Province, City – Reportedly two suicide bombers entered the Jalalabad City with the aim to conduct suicide attacks against government targets in the city.

Insurgency: 05 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Jalalabad City – Reportedly insurgents have rigged a vehicle as a VBIED, and painted the VBIED to resemble an ambulance with the license plate # 8899. According to the information the VBIED will be used for an attack against an ANA and/or IM target. If they do not succeed to attack the primary target, the suicide attack will be launched against the Daron Tah Dam. Remark. See SSSI DSR 04 Nov 10 – Similar information was received on 03 Nov 10. Of importance is that there were a number of reports over the past two weeks on the movement of suicide bombers to Nangarhar Province, and specific references of possible targets in the Jalalabad City. The threat of a suicide attack in the Jalalabad City is high at this stage, specific against IM/ANSF convoys and/or installations.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Lal Por District – Reportedly a group of approx 70 insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders deployed to the Goshtah Area with the aim to attack Border Police Checkpoints.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Lal Por District – Reportedly the district commander of the insurgents facilitated a meeting with LN elders requesting them to grow poppies on their farms. The insurgent commander informed the elders that the insurgents will defend the farms from government against government operations.

Insurgency: 06 Nov, Nangarhar Province, – Reportedly a group of approx 25 insurgents deployed to the border area with the aim to attack Border Police Checkpoints.

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SOUTH EASTERN REGION

IED: 03 Nov, , Khost Matun District – During the day an IED detonated in the Jahanzib Market in the Khost City. No casualties were reported.

IED: 03 Nov, Khost Province, Mando Zay District – During the day two insurgents were killed when the IED they were emplacing near the District Administrative Center prematurely detonated.

IED: 03 Nov, Khost Province, Nadir Shah – During the night an insurgent was killed when the IED he was emplacing in the Wurza Area prematurely detonated.

Operations: 03 Nov, Khost Province, Nadir Shah Kot District – During the night IM air assets engaged with insurgents as they were busy emplacing an IED on a sub road in the Wurza Area. Four insurgents were killed.

Operations: 03 Nov, Khost Province, Mando Zayi District – During the night IM air assets engaged with insurgents as they were busy emplacing an IED on a sub road in the Warza Area. Five insurgents were killed and two more insurgents were arrested as they were caught with an IED in their possession.

Demonstration: 04 Nov, Khost Province, Khost Matun District During the morning approx 100 local residents staged a peaceful demonstration in the Khost City to protest over the electoral fraud during the recent Parliamentary Elections.

Crime: 04 Nov, Khost Province, Khost Matun District – During the day the ANSF seized an unknown quantity of alcohol and drugs in the Gangani Village and arrested two suspects in this regard.

IED: 03 Nov, , Sar Hawza District – During the morning the IN detonated an IED in the Sultani Area. No casualties were reported. Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 12 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan

IDF Attack: 03 Nov, Paktika Province, Sar Hawza District – During the night insurgents launched three rockets towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported.

IDF Attack: 03 Nov, Paktika Province, – During the day insurgents launched five rockets towards an IM installation near the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported.

IDF Attack: 03 Nov, Paktika Province, Dila District – During the day insurgents launched four rockets towards the District Administrative Center in the Khoshamand Area. No casualties were reported.

Ambush: 03 Nov, Paktika Province, Dila District – During the morning insurgents ambushed a joint IM/ANSF convoy with SAF in the Khoshamand Area. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported.

SOUTHERN REGION

IED: 03 Nov, Nimroz Province, – During the afternoon a Police patrol located and defused a RCIED that was emplaced in a culvert of a rod in the Siyachishman Area.

Attack: 01 Nov, , Lashkar Gah District – During the morning insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint in the Babaji Village with SAF. The Police repelled the attack and later seized an IED and a motorcycle at the scene of the attack. No casualties were reported.

Operations: 01 Nov, Helmand Province, Nawa-I Barak Zayi District – During the morning the Police arrested two insurgents and seized an IED in the Basolan Village.

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Operations: 01 Nov, Helmand Province, Marjah District – During the day the IM launched an air strike in the Trikh Nawar Area. One LN was wounded.

IED: 01 Nov, Helmand Province, Nahri Sarraj District – During the morning a Police vehicle detonated an IED in the Yakhchal Area. Four Police members were wounded.

Ambush: 01 Nov, Helmand Province, Lashkar Gah District – During the day insurgents ambushed a joint IM/ANSF patrol with SAF in the Babaji Village. One LN was wounded in the crossfire.

IDF Attack: 01 Nov, Helmand Province, – During the day insurgents launched a rocket that impacted on a locale residence south of the District Administrative Center. One LN was wounded.

Attack: 04 Nov, Helmand Province, – During the night of 04/05 Nov insurgents attacked an IM installation near the District Administrative Center with SAF. The attack was ineffective and no casualties were reported.

Attack: 04 Nov, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the night of 04/05 Nov insurgents attacked an IM installation east of the District Administrative Center with RGPs. The attack was ineffective and no casualties were reported.

Attack: 04 Nov, Helmand Province, Nad Ali District – During the night of 04/05 Nov insurgents conducted a few harassing SAF attacks against IM installations in the north of the district. An IM helicopter landing at one of the installations also came under SAF attack. The attacks were ineffective and no casualties or damage were reported.

IED: 04 Nov, Helmand Province, – During the night of 04/05 Nov the IM located and defused two large IEDs near the District Administrative Center.

Attack: 05 Nov, Helmand Province, Lashkar Gah District – During the morning two unidentified gunmen on a motorcycle approached the guards at an NGO compound in the Lashkar Hah City and asked the guards if a named Afghan civilian worked in the compound. The gunmen left after the guards told them that the person did not work there. Later during the morning the unknown gunmen returned and threw a hand grenade into the NGO compound. The attack was ineffective and no casualties were reported.

IED: 03 Nov, , Kandahar City, Police District #2 – During the morning the Police located two IEDs in the Malajat Area, An IM EOD Team later defused the devices.

IDF Attack: 03 Nov, Kandahar Province, – During the afternoon insurgents launched five rockets from the Feel Ko Mountain Area towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported.

Murder: 04 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #9 – During the morning two insurgents on a motorcycle shot and killed a government official in Block A of the Loya Wala Area – the Assistant Director of the Literacy Branch of the Kandahar Education Department.

IED: 03 Nov, , – Just before noon the Police located and defused an IED in the Mullah Rocketty Village.

IED: 03 Nov, Zabul Province, Qalat District – During the morning the NDS conducted a search operation northeast of the Governor House and located and defused five IEDs from a ruin.

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SPECIAL INTEREST NEWS

U.S. won't know pace of Afghan drawdown for months

MELBOURNE (Reuters) – The pace of a planned U.S. drawdown from Afghanistan due to start next July may not be entirely decided until shortly before it begins, Defense Secretary Robert Gates suggested Sunday. Gains by opposition Republicans in congressional elections last week have raised questions about possible push-back on President Barack Obama's contested policy of starting to withdraw from the nine-year-old war in mid-2011. Obama's Democrats strongly support setting a date to start withdrawing from the unpopular conflict but Republicans, who may now have a stronger say in policy, largely oppose it and may try to minimize any withdrawal.

Asked whether the elections, in which Obama's Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives to Republicans, would make Obama more or less likely to pursue a significant drawdown next summer, Gates said: "I think it remains to be seen." "Partly, I think things will depend on our assessment next spring and early summer of how we're doing," Gates said, speaking to reporters shortly before landing in Australia for bilateral talks. "I think that will have the biggest impact on the president's decisions in terms of the pacing." The comments to reporters flying with Gates to Australia for annual bilateral talks appear to further lower expectations of any clarity on the pace of the withdrawal from a White House review of war strategy next month.

Gates and the top U.S. military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, have already publicly stated that they did not expect any major strategy changes to emerge from the review, and predicted "tweaks" instead. This year has been the deadliest for Western troops since U.S.-backed forces ousted Afghanistan's rulers in 2001. More than 479 U.S. troops have been killed since December 2009, when Obama ordered a "surge" of 30,000 additional forces. Still U.S. and NATO commanders on the ground say progress is being made and are calling for patience, amid anxiety back home about a war whose successful conclusion depends as much on Afghan politics as it does on battlefield strategy.

Republicans in Congress, including Obama's 2008 presidential rival Senator John McCain, have pressed the president to back away from his July 2011 date to begin the withdrawals, saying it has backfired and fueled Taliban rhetoric about waiting out the West. Howard McKeon, expected to become the next chair of the House Armed Services Committee when it passes to Republican control next January, told Reuters in an interview last week he would not seek to change Obama's mind on the drawdown date. But he insisted that any drawdown be conditions-based.

Gates stressed that the Obama administration had always maintained that the withdrawals would be based on conditions on the ground "in terms of the numbers." "And I think that continues to be the position. It will be based more on that than on domestic politics."

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Third Afghan Peace Talks Held in Maldives Tolo news November 6, 2010

The third round of Afghan peace talks led by Humayoon Jareer, the son-in-law of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was held on Saturday in Maldives. Some members of the Hezbi Islami Afghanistan (Islamic Party of Afghanistan), as well as members of Afghan parliament have also participated in the meeting. Representatives from the Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 15 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan

Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network are also reported to have participated in the meeting, but the report was not confirmed by the organisers. Firoz Hekmatyar, the son of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is representing the Hezbi Islami Afghanistan in the Maldives meeting.

The TOLOnews reporter in the conference reports that no official representative from the Afghan government and the Taliban group had participated in the meeting in which ways to bring peace in Afghanistan and selecting two representatives from the two involved sides were discussed. The topics discussed in the summit included, ceasefire, formation of a joint commission to ensure ceasefire and security, political partnership of all sides in Afghanistan's affairs and the formation of High Peace council. At the end of the two-day summit, participants are expected to make a decision on ways that could lead to a mechanism for peace establishment in the country.

WEATHER FORECAST

Afghanistan Weather for Monday 08 November 2010

Kabul Jalalabad Mazar Kandahar Herat

Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear

21° C | 2° C 24° C | 10° C 18° C | 8° C 24° C | 10° C 22° C | 4° C

Farah Khost Kunduz Gardez Fayzabad

Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear

23° C | 11° C 22° C | 9° C 22° C | 8° C 14° C | 2° C 26° C | 5° C

CALENDAR

30 Oct 10 - Parliamentary Election Final Results Expected 16 Nov - 17 Nov 10 - Eid-al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice)

Note. Muslim festivals are timed according to local sightings of various phases of the moon and the dates given above are approximations. During the lunar month of Ramadan that precedes Eid al-Fitr, Muslims fast during the day and feast at night and normal business patterns may be interrupted. Some disruption may continue into Eid al-Fitr itself. Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha may last up to several days, depending on the region.

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NEWS / INFORMATION

ANA special forces soldiers receive berets in ceremony NATO News Release

KABUL, Afghanistan (Nov. 6) – The first class of the Afghan National Army special forces received their tan berets in a ceremony Monday at Camp Morehead, Kabul province, after completing six months of on-the-job training partnered with U.S. special forces. The ANA special forces Class 1 graduated in May from their 10- week qualification course and moved on to the operational portion of their training. During operational training, the Afghan special forces paired with U.S. special forces to conduct presence patrols, clearing operations and key leader engagements – honing the skills they learned in the classroom. The ceremony was presided over by Gen. Dadon Lawang, 1st Commando Brigade commander, and attended by the current ANA special forces students. ―Wear your berets with pride,‖ said Lawang. ―They symbolize who you are and what you represent. Respect them as you do the people you are honor-bound to protect.‖ The ANASF soldiers are trained to focus on interaction with the population through jirgas with village elders, but capable of unilateral operations. ―I am proud and honored to be standing here today, sharing this moment with you. This is an important step in the history of Afghanistan,‖ said Lawang. ―Before there were commandos, and now there is commandos and ANASF. Special forces means special jobs and special people. I know you will do great things for our country.‖

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Afghan ECC introduces 413 candidates of parliamentary elections to prosecution department

KABUL, Nov. 6 (Xinhua) -- The UN-backed Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) on Saturday announced that the body has introduced 413 candidates including 62 sitting parliamentarians who contested the second legislative polls to the prosecution department on charges of involvement in committing fraud during elections held on September 18. "The Independent Election Commission (IEC) has provided ECC with the names of 413 candidates accused of committing fraud and violating the electoral laws, but ECC referred all the suspects to the Attorney General Office for investigation," Ahmad Zia Rafat, a member and spokesman for the watchdog panel, told reporters at a press conference here.

The ECC has already invalidated the votes cast for six winner candidates in the preliminary results on the ground of violating the electoral law including not resigning from their government posts and committing fraud during the polls. From the voting day on September 18 until October 24 the last day of filing electoral complaints, over 6,000 allegations had been registered with ECC. Briefing journalists on probing the complaints, Rafat added that almost all of 2,000 serious allegations had been adjudicated. He also said that allegations leveled against the above candidates include vote-rigging, stuffing ballot boxes, influencing election staffs at polling booths during the polling day, using fake voting cards and double voting on the election day held September 18. Final results of Afghanistan's second legislative elections since the fall of the Taliban regime in late 2001, due on a couple of weeks, would not be announced until all the allegations and complaints are adjudicated. Over 2,500 candidates including some 400 women had contested the voting to secure seat in the 249-seat Afghan Wolesi Jirga or Lower House of parliament.

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Afghan school graduates flight engineers, NCOs NATO News Release

KABUL, Afghanistan (Nov. 6) – Students from Pohantoon-e-Hawayee, the Afghan Air Force’s Big Air School, graduated from the Mi-17 flight engineer and non-commissioned officer courses Thursday. ―I am so proud of what these Afghans have achieved so far,‖ said Sgt. Kim Fournier, NATO Training Mission - Afghanistan Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 17 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan advisor in charge of student scheduling/planning. ―We have been working pretty hard here at PeH to get them into the AAF and serving as NCOs.‖ The eight students of the NCO course graduated from orientation and now are officially in the Air Force. They will be working in the logistics career field and the Mi-17 flight engineers can now work and fly on Mi-17 transport helicopters. ―The NCO course is a big plus because there is a big short fall of NCOs in the AAF. The orientation is more advanced than a soldier typically receives. Now these airmen are going into their occupation training,‖ Master Sgt. Shawn Nordon, NATC-A personnel programs advisor.

Nordon said that the Mi-17 course is a fairly new course and this was its first graduation. With these new graduates out in the field, they will help the Afghans conduct and operate helicopter missions across Afghanistan. ―The good thing with the new guys is that we can train them differently than the older guys which were trained using older Russian training. We had to get with subject matter experts in the field to build the course and identify the basics that a brand new Airman would need to operate in the field at the very basic level. To graduate these three engineers is a step in the right direction. It gets the ball rolling and start the training in this specialty,‖ said Nordon.

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Afghan Air Force brings aid to Badakhshan NATO News Release

KABUL, Afghanistan (Nov. 6) – The Afghan Air Force, accompanied by NATO Air Training Command- Afghanistan/438th Air Expeditionary Wing and ISAF Joint Command, delivered aid to villagers Oct. 26 as part of humanitarian assistance to Baharak in the . Geared towards the village's children, the delivery is part of a continued effort by coalition forces to demonstrate eagerness in fostering a positive relationship with the people of Afghanistan, said Maj. Sanjoy C. Malhotra, communications advisor for the 438th Air Expeditionary Advisory Group. "One of our missions with counterinsurgency is winning hearts and minds. Handing out supplies hopefully helps people get the message that we are here to do that," said Lt. Col. Bernard M. Willi, 438th AEAG deputy commander. "The people need to see the Afghan Air Force taking care of them," said Maj. Malhotra, noting the particular importance for Afghans to see their countrymen providing support. "The military doesn't just fight – it protects and helps civilians."

Altogether, over 2,000 kilograms of provisions consisting of toys, furniture, clothes and school supplies were presented during a gift-giving ceremony set up between the coalition forces and the children of the village. Servicemembers presented the children with the aid, while the children reciprocated with bouquets of flowers. ―After spending a lot of time in Afghanistan, days and missions like the humanitarian assistance are what makes me happy just to be here, said Master Sgt. Scott Andrews, a flight engineer for the 438th Air Expeditionary Advisory Squadron. "Our mission is to help Afghanistan. The kids are innocent. They're worried at first, then they realize we're friends. Everyone here has a vested interest."

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Saudi Arabia halts Afghan mediation

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia's foreign minister says Riyadh has halted mediation efforts between the Afghan government and the Taliban because the fundamentalist movement has refused to break ties with al- Qaida. Prince Saud al-Faisal spoke Saturday after a meeting with his Italian counterpart. Last February, Afghan President Hamid Karzai sent a small delegation of former Taliban members to Saudi Arabia to seek help in kick-starting talks with the Taliban. But the Saudis said the kingdom would not help unless the Taliban severed all ties with Osama bin Laden — a Saudi — and his al-Qaida terror network. That is also a key demand of both the U.S. and Afghanistan. The Taliban is unwilling to hold formal peace talks until the U.S. agrees to a timetable to withdraw all foreign troops.

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ACRONYMS

AA Anti-Aircraft MNF Multi National Forces AGE Anti-Government Elements (Generic term for MO Modus Operandi insurgent groups) MOD Ministry of Defence ABP AFGHAN Border Police MOI Ministry of Interior ADZ AFGHAN Development Zone (in Central NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation HELMAND around LKG) NBC Nuclear, Biological and Chemical AEF AFGHAN Eradication Force NBD Non-Battle Death ANA AFGHAN National Army NBI Non-Battle Injury ANP AFGHAN National Police NDA NAD-e ALI (in HELMAND Province) ANSF AFGHAN National Security Forces NFDK No Further Details Known ANSO AFGHAN NGO Safety Office NGO Non-Governmental Organisation AMF AFGHAN Militia Forces NSTR Nothing Significant to Report AO Area of Operations NDS National Directorate of Security (Afghan) AP Anti-Personnel OEF Operation Enduring Freedom (US Operation APC Armoured Personnel Carrier with a separate command structure and remit to AQ Al Qaeda ISAF, predominantly operating in the ASF AFGHAN Special Forces EASTERN region) AT Anti-Tank OP Observation Point BBRCIED Bicycle Borne Remote Controlled Improvised OPCEN Operations Centre Explosive Device OPSEC Operational Security BBIED Body Borne Improvised Explosive Device P2K PAKTIKA, PAKTIA & KHOWST BDA Battle Damage Assessment PAK PAKISTAN BME Bomb Making Equipment PB Patrol Base BP Border Post PBIED Person Born Improvised Explosive Device CAS Close Air Support PD Police District CASEVAC Casualty Evacuation PEF Poppy Eradication Force CNP Counter Narcotic Police PPIED Pressure plate IED CivPop Civilian Population PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team COIN (Ops) Counter Insurgency (Operations) PSAF Precision Small Arms Fire CoP Chief of Police PSC Private Security Company CP Checkpoint PSD Protective Security Detail CQA Close Quarter Assassination QRF Quick Reaction Force CWIED Command Wire IED Recce Reconnaissance DC District Centre RC Radio controlled / Remote controlled (as in DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation, Reintegration RCIED) DF Direct Fire RL Rocket Launcher DIAG Disarmament of Illegal Armed Groups RPG Rocket Propelled Grenade EF Enemy Forces (Generic term for insurgent RTA Road Traffic Accident groups) SAF Small Arms Fire EOD Explosive Ordnance Disposal SAFIRE Surface-to-Air Fire FOB Forward Operating Base SAM Surface-to-Air Missile FP Firing Point SF Special Forces / Security Forces GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of SIOC Security Information Operations Centre AFGHANISTAN SOP Standard Operational Procedure GOA Government of Afghanistan SRA Security Risk Assessment GR Grid Reference (Provided in MGRS – Military SVBIED Suicide Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Grid Reference System) Device GSK GERESHK (in HELMAND) S Suicide i.e. SIED – suicide IED, SVBIED – HIG HEZB-I-ISLAMI GULBUDDIN suicide VBIED HME Home-made explosives (usually fertiliser- TB TALIBAN based) TBD To be determined HMG Heavy Machine Gun TTPs Tactics, techniques and procedures HQ Headquarters UGV Upper GERESHK Valley (HELMAND HVT High Value Target Province) IDF Indirect fire (Rockets and mortars) UN United Nations IEC Independent Election Commission UN DSS United Nations Department of Safety and IED Improvised Explosive Device Security IM (F) International Military (Forces) USV Upper SANGIN Valley (HELMAND Province) INGO International Non-governmental Organization UXO Unexploded Ordnance INS Insurgent(s) VBIED Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device ISAF International Security Assistance Force VCP Vehicle Check Point (Also, IVCP – Illegal IVO In the Vicinity Of (i.e. mil-speak for near) VCP) JEMB Joint Election Management Body VOIED Victim Operated IED JTF Joint Task Force WB World Bank KAF KANDAHAR Airfield WFP World Food Program KAIA KABUL International Airport WIA Wounded in action KCP KABUL City Police WHO World Health Organisation KIA Killed in action LKG LASHKAR GAH (in HELMAND Province) LN Local National (i.e. Afghan) MCIED Motor cycle improvised explosive device MCN Ministry of Counter Narcotics MEDIVAC Medical Evacuation MG Machine Gun MIA Missing in action

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