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SECURITY of ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REPORT 2018 2 Security of Electricity Supply Report 2018 Security of Electricity Supply Report 2018 3

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SECURITY of ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REPORT 2018 2 Security of Electricity Supply Report 2018 Security of Electricity Supply Report 2018 3 SECURITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REPORT 2018 2 Security of electricity supply report 2018 Security of electricity supply report 2018 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary.....................................................................................................................4 1. Security of electricity supply .............................................................................8 1.1 What is security of electricity supply? ........................................................................ 8 1.2 The security of electricity supply framework is becoming more international ................................................................................... 8 1.3 Level of security of electricity supply ......................................................................10 2. Historical security of electricity supply .........................................................12 2.1 Outage statistics ............................................................................................................. 12 2.2 Electricity system incidents in 2017 .........................................................................14 2.3 Ancillary services ..........................................................................................................18 3. Forward-looking risk assessment ................................................................20 3.1 Expectations for the future electricity system .....................................................20 3.2 Generation adequacy ....................................................................................................20 3.3 Grid adequacy .................................................................................................................26 3.4 Robustness ......................................................................................................................27 3.5 IT security.........................................................................................................................31 3.6 Operational and market development ....................................................................32 Front page photo: Maintenance work on the electricity connection between Kassø by the Danish-German border and Tjele by Viborg. 4 Security of electricity supply report 2018 SUMMARY In general, Denmark's The Security of electricity supply re- regional, instead of simply a national, security of electricity sup- port 2018 uses selected highlights issue. At the same time, electricity ply level ranks among the and analyses to sum up the security of markets and operational collaboration electricity supply for 2017 and includes across Europe are harmonised via new highest in Europe, and the a related forward-looking risk assess- European regulations. This all greatly 2017 level was no excepti- ment. influences how Energinet will ensure on. Danes had power avai- the Danish security of electricity supply lable 99.995 per cent of the Energinet’s goal is for Danes not to in the future. experience outages, resulting from time. This means that the faults in the power transmission grid, In this 2018 report, Energinet describes average consumer experi- for more than 60 seconds in total the main challenges for the security of enced less than 25 minutes during a normal year. electricity supply. Examples are listed of outage. Though this is below. Of the 25 minutes outage in 2017, 92 slightly more than in 2016, seconds resulted from incidents in the Risk of no electricity east of the the figure is still very low. transmission grid. The transmission Great Belt The high level of security of grid fault that affected the most consu- The Danish electricity grid has an electricity supply is mainly mers occurred at Svanemøllen station eastern and a western section with in Copenhagen in October. It was a the Great Belt as the dividing line. due to conversion to cables procedural error in connection with In Eastern Denmark, the risk of the in the distribution grids planned maintenance at the station. electricity supply not meeting demand will increase in the coming years. Minimizing faults is essential to Ener- Although Energinet's 10-year outlook ginet, as a single fault in the electricity shows an increased probability of transmission grid can escalate and brownouts - i.e. controlled disconnecti- lead to extensive outages for Danish ons of electricity consumers in limited electricity consumers. Energinet aims areas - such situations are expected to to avoid faults by continuously optimi- be very rare events. sing work processes and component maintenance. Energinet introduces concrete mea- sures to address the Eastern Danish Key challenges for the high Danish challenge. Among other things, security of electricity supply Energinet is working to make better The Danish and European electricity use of existing infrastructure, such as systems are undergoing significant an upgrade of the domestic electricity changes. Extensive wind and solar grid close to the Øresund Link that will power capacity is integrated in the increase capacity in case of outages or electricity system, while many traditio- revisions. Energinet is also looking into nal thermal power stations are phased the possibility of obtaining approval out. As more electricity interconnec- for a temporary introduction of a tors link different countries' electrical strategic reserve. At the same time, grids together, the security of electri- Energinet is working determinedly to city supply becomes an increasingly implement current electricity market Security of electricity supply report 2018 5 reforms, which will combine with other new initiatives to the fact that today’s modern wind ensure increased flexibility in both electricity generation and turbines help to stabilise the system, consumption, bringing new market solutions to ensure the and that Energinet can use automation security of electricity supply. to operate the grid closer to the limit. Renewal of the Copenhagen power grid Thus, Energinet can operate the elec- Operation of the power grid is changing in these years as a tricity grid more stably, even without consequence of increased renewable electricity generation, power stations running. Optimised a rise in electricity consumption, especially from data utilisation of the electricity system's centres, and an ageing power grid. This requires expansion components facilitates the integration of and reinvestments in the domestic electricity grid, for of renewable energy sources while example in Copenhagen. maintaining a high level of security of electricity supply. In Copenhagen and the surrounding areas, the security of electricity supply is challenged by an ageing electricity grid Greater focus on IT security with still longer outage times due to regular maintenance. The electricity system’s increasing In addition, electricity consumption is expecting to rise dependence on IT requires high while electricity generation by Copenhagen thermal power uptimes on crucial IT systems. It also stations is declining. triggers focus on external threats, as well as national and international As a result, Energinet is in the process of laying new cables preparedness cooperation. One leading into Copenhagen, and these should be operational measure implemented is a joint Nordic by the beginning of 2019. Energinet finds that the risk of preparedness drill. load shedding is unacceptably high during the construction phase. Therefore, Energinet has ordered a thermal power station in operation to maintain the high security of electrici- ty supply in Copenhagen until the cable is put into operation. Changes in need for properties required to maintain power system stability Properties required to maintain power system stability are important to ensure the robustness of the power system, as these properties help to ensure the stability of the electricity grid in case of faults or outages. Energinet's most recent and most comprehensive analyses of the need for properties required to maintain power system stability show that the electricity system is more robust than previously assumed. This is due to, for example, 6 Security of electricity supply report 2018 TOTAL OUTAGE MINUTES OUTAGE MINUTES DUE TO FAULTS IN THE TRANSMIS- SION GRID 2017, minutes:25 2017, seconds: 92 2016, minutes:19 2016, seconds: 48 Target, seconds: 60 Outage minutes for an average con- sumer in the Danish electricity system. Average outage minutes due to system disturbances in the transmission grid (above 100 kV). ALERT STATE IT SECURITY 2017, no. 2017, no. of times: 1 of incidents: 0 2016, no. 2016, no. of times: 1 of incidents: 3 The 2017 outage was caused by a fault No incident with loss of critical IT tools in a cable into Copenhagen. in 2017. PREPAREDNESS ANCILLARY SERVICES 2017, no. of 2017, incidents: 1 DKK million: 626 2016, no. of 2016 incidents: 0 DKK million:758 The single 2017 incident was caused by Costs of procuring ancillary services. a fire in a station. Security of electricity supply report 2018 7 GENERATION ADEQUACY GENERATION ADEQUACY 2025 2025 More data centres. Eastern Fewer power stations. Denmark, More interconnectors. minutes: 11 More renewable energy. Western Denmark, minutes: : <1 Impact security of electricity supply in Denmark. Generation adequacy in Eastern Denmark is challenged. GRID ADEQUACY ROBUSTNESS Ageing electricity grid Units in the electricity and more reinvest- grid required to main- ments, e.g. in Copen- tain power system hagen, may challenge stability and greater security of electricity extent of automation
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