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Thesis in Sustainable Energy Planning and Management Aalborg University Modelling of Energy Systems with High Integration of Renewable Energy Sources Maria-Eftychia Vestarchi Master Thesis in Sustainable Energy Planning and Management Aalborg University Abbreviations AC Alternate Current APF Advanced Pulverised Fuel BEV Battery Electric Vehicle CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine CHP Combined Heat and Power CO2 Carbon Dioxide DC Direct Current ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for electricity EOP End of Pipe EU European Union EV Electric vehicle GAMS General Algebraic Modelling System GHG Green House Gases GW Gigawatt GWh Gigawatt hours HVDC High Voltage Direct Current IEA International Energy Agency Kg Kilogram KJ Kilojoule KV Kilovolts KWh Kilowatt hours LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MIP Mixed Integer Programming MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt hours Nat_gas Natural gas NOx Nitrous oxides O&M Operation and Maintenance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle PV Photovoltaic RE Renewable Energy SO2 Sulphur Dioxide TEN-E Trans-European Energy Network TIC Techno-Institutional Complex TSO Transmission System Operator TYNDP Ten Year Network Development Plan UC Unit commitment V2G Vehicle to Grid i Title: Modelling of Energy Systems with High Aalborg University Sustainable Energy Planning and Management Integration of Renewable Energy Sources Department of Development and Planning Skibbrogade 5 9000 Aalborg Project period: Abstract February 2nd 2015 – June 3rd 2015 This project examines the Nordic and the German energy systems using the energy model Balmorel. Two core scenarios in 2030 including additional RE capacities, Author interconnectors and EVs, are examined with and without the option of Balmorel to implement unit commitment to power plants, in order to include inflexibility in the systems Maria-Eftychia Vestarchi and approach a more realistic representation of their operation. It will be researched what impacts will the different scenarios have to the energy generation, total system costs, electricity prices and the operation of the Supervisor energy systems in an attempt to answer the Brian Vad Mathiesen, ([email protected]) following research question: “What are the differences when energy Consultants systems with high penetration of fluctuating Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses János Hethey, Ea Energy Analyses renewable energy sources are modelled with and without unit commitment?” The main findings of this project are that more fossil fuels, biomass and wind is used when UC is applied. Moreover, the total costs are increased when UC is applied, to some Copies: 2 extent due to the additional start-up costs but Pages:89 mainly due to the raised fuel and CO2 costs. In Appendices: 1 + 2 addition, the electricity prices are increased and present high peaks, due to the operation USB sticks of more expensive power plants in the UC. Furthermore, in the UC less curtailment of the wind is noticed. It is concluded by the author, that this study indicates that the simulations without UC provide a better representation of the actual operation of the today’s energy systems, since there is uncertainty of how the market will operate in the future and the simulations are carried out using current UC The content of this report is freely available, but publication (with references) may only happen after authorisation by the data. authors. ii Preface This thesis is conducted for the fourth semester of the Master of Science in “Sustainable Energy Planning and Management” of Aalborg University from the 2nd of February until the 3rd of June 2015. It was written under the supervision of the professor Brian Vad Mathiesen and the support of two consultants, Anders Kofoed- Wiuff and János Hethey of Ea Energy Analyses in Copenhagen. The APA style of the Microsoft Word is used for the references of this report. The last name of the author is mentioned first followed by the year of the publication, i.e. (Last name of the Author, Year of publication). In cases where sources from the same author are mentioned, the reference has the following format: (Last name of the Author, Name of the reference, Year of publication). The appendix of this report contains two USB sticks, where some of the scenarios’ output of Balmorel model and an excel with various results are included. A number of persons have supervised and assisted on this report. Special thanks to Brian Vad Mathiesen, for providing supervision and precious insight during this thesis. Also, to one of the partners of Ea Energy Analyses, Anders Kofoed-Wiuff and the consultant János Hethey, for providing inspiration for the topic of this thesis, guidance throughout it and proofreading it. Many thanks to the consultant Lars Pauli Bornak for assisting with general problems concerning the energy model Balmorel, the consultant Bjarne Bach for introducing the author with the unit commitment option of the model and the consultant Christian Bang for providing data concerning electric vehicles. Finally, I would like to thank all the other partners, employees and students at Ea for providing an inspiring and pleasant working environment. The time spent during writing the Master’s thesis at EA has been a priceless and valuable experience. iii Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................................................ iv 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Project formulation ................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Research question ................................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Project Outline ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2 Theoretical Framework .................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Planning ................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Carbon Lock-in ......................................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Technological Change and Choice Awareness......................................................................................... 8 3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Literature study and Case study ............................................................................................................ 11 3.2 Modelling Tool: Balmorel ...................................................................................................................... 12 Structure of Balmorel .............................................................................................................................. 13 a. Geography ................................................................................................................................... 13 b. Time ............................................................................................................................................. 14 c. Energy technologies .................................................................................................................... 15 d. Demand ....................................................................................................................................... 16 e. Data handling ............................................................................................................................... 16 f. Unit Commitment ........................................................................................................................ 17 3.4 Validity and reliability of data ................................................................................................................ 19 4 Technological Background linked to Balmorel inputs ............................................................................. 20 4.1 Power Plants .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Energy efficiencies ................................................................................................................................... 20 Steam Processes and Cogeneration values ............................................................................................. 20 Regulation ability ..................................................................................................................................... 20 Technologies ............................................................................................................................................ 21 Advanced Pulverised fuel power plant (APF) .............................................................................. 21 Gas Turbine Single Cycle power plant ......................................................................................... 21 Gas Turbines Combined Cycle (CCGT) ........................................................................................
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