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RIL in 15Jul20 Company Update Research Institutional India I Oil & Gas 16 July, 2020 Reliance Industries Ltd BUY Price: Rs1,844 Target Price: Rs2,015 Creating a future ready ecosystem Forecast return: 9.3% RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani (MDA) in the 43rd AGM of the company gave valuable Market Data updates on recent business developments and growth roadmap going forward. He Bloomberg: RIL IN emphasized that the 3 pillars for value creation remain the JIO platforms business, the 52 week H/L: 1,979/867 new commerce business as part of RIL retail and the gradual transformation of the OTC Market cap: Rs12102.0bn business to a new materials/new energy business. Overall, with zero net debt objective Shares Outstanding: 6339.4mn having been achieved ahead of time, game changing partnerships with the big three (Facebook, Google and Microsoft) and expectations of similar value unlocking now Free float: 49.8% starting in retail, RIL stands on a strong footing over the next 5-7 years. BUY Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 2,35,22,720 Source: Bloomberg One of the largest continuous fund raise activity in the world Changes in the report With the closing of the US$4.5bn investment by google (announced in the AGM), RIL has Rating: Unchanged now raised a cumulative Rs2.1trn (including the Rs531bn raised via the rights issue) in a Target price: +21.7% matter of less than 3months – even though the entire funds will be received by Nov 2021 EPS: +4.8% FY21E, -5.4% FY22E (date of last instalment of rights issue) we believe net debt will turn negative by end of Source: Centrum Research estimates FY21E itself, radically changing the capital structure of the company. RIL relative to Nifty 50 JIO – monetization of the ecosystem the focus Having already set new benchmarks for the JIO platforms segment on the valuation front, the slew of investments by global tech behemoths and global PE heavyweights is just one part of the equation. RIL is now moving swiftly to demonstrate why the option value paid by the investors over the mobility value is justified. It already has successfully launched the JIO meet app (5mn sign ups in less than a month), has AR/VR products like JIO Glass in the offing and is also working on multiple offerings in the education/media/gaming and healthcare space to create diversified revenue sources beyond mobility. Source: Bloomberg Retail – the next unicorn Shareholding pattern MDA mentioned the successful pilot launch of JioMart – with focus solely on grocery Mar-20 Dec-19 Sep-19 Jun-19 alone, the initial launch in 200+ cities is already reflecting in 250k+ orders/day and Promoter 50.1 50.0 50.1 47.3 combined with the strongly growing offline/online retail business this is the next big FIIs 24.1 24.5 23.7 24.3 thing for RIL. MDA clearly mentioned multiple strategic deals in the offing which will be DIIs 5.5 5.3 5.4 4.6 disclosed over the next couple of quarters in the segment. We believe the biggest delta Public/other 20.4 20.2 20.8 23.8 in this segment can come via JioMart because the target market for this omni-channel Source: BSE model is not just organized retail (US$100bn) or e-commerce (US$40bn) but the traditional retail channel itself which is a >US$900bn opportunity. Valuations – a new paradigm We believe the drivers of value for RIL over the next few years are Retail (new commerce) and JIO (digital platform) with a relatively lower % from Oil to Chemicals (OTC). We have raised estimates of ARPU, lowered costs for JIO (based on Management feedback) while for retail we now move to DMart multiples as the benchmark as we do not see any other comparable story for RIL – resultant of these revisions, Target price raised to Rs2015/sh, 9.3% upside. We note that looking beyond FY22E for retail and building a nominal share of traditional retail by FY25E can deliver a bull case and blue sky value of Rs767/862 per share for retail, adding Rs114/209 per sh to RIL SoTP (Exhibit 13). Reiterate BUY. Financial and valuation summary YE Mar (Rs mn) FY18A FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E Revenues 39,16,770 56,92,090 59,67,430 48,68,977 60,76,091 EBITDA 6,41,760 8,41,670 8,82,170 8,58,105 10,43,536 Probal Sen EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 14.8 14.8 17.6 17.2 Analyst, Oil & Gas Oil & Gas & Oil Net profit 3,60,800 3,98,370 3,98,800 5,30,299 6,12,205 +91 22 4215 9001 EPS (Rs) 56.9 62.8 62.9 83.7 96.6 [email protected] EPS growth (%) 18.3 12.9 13.5 17.3 15.4 PE (x) 33.1 29.3 25.8 22.0 19.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.4 17.3 16.6 13.9 11.3 PBV (x) 4.0 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 RoE (%) 12.7 11.7 10.8 11.1 11.6 Akshay Mane RoCE (%) 8.2 8.6 8.0 7.6 8.4 Associate, Oil & Gas +91 22 4215 9265 Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research estimates [email protected] Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures. Reliance Industries Ltd 16 July, 2020 Thesis Snapshot Centrum revised estimates Valuations Revised Old change Revised Old change We employ EV/EBITDA multiples for valuing the downstream energy, Retail YE Mar (Rs bn) FY21E FY21E (%) FY22E FY22E (%) and Telecom business segments, in line with peers and historical performance. Revenue 4,869 5,177 -6.0% 6,076 6,430 -5.5% Upstream is valued using DCF for producing assets and EV/boe for unproduced EBITDA 858 893 -3.9% 1,044 1,122 -7.0% reserves. Adj. PAT 530 506 4.8% 612 647 -5.4% Valuations Rs/share Adj. EPS (Rs/sh) 83.7 79.8 4.8% 96.6 102.1 -5.4% Refining + Petchem (7.5x EV/E FY22E) 722 Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research estimates E&P (DCF + EV/boe) -4.5 RIL versus NIFTY 50 JIO (11.7x FY22E EBITDA) 519 Retail (30.3x FY22E EBITDA) 653 1m 6m 1 year US shale (0.5x BV) 55 RIL IN 14.2 22.2 45.9 Total EV 1,945 NIFTY 50 8.2 (14.0) (8.4) Source: Bloomberg, NSE Net Debt (70) Target price 2,015 Key assumptions Upside/(downside) (%) 9.3 YE Mar FY21E FY22E P/E mean and standard deviation Brent (US$/bbl) 45.0 50.0 INR/USD 73.0 73.0 RIL refinery throughput (mmt) 68.2 68.2 RIL average GRM (USD/bbll) 8.5 9.5 Retail EBITDA (Rsbn) 106.1 136.8 Petchem EBIT (INRbn) 238 282 Jio EBITDA (Rsbn) 310 420 Source: Centrum Research estimates Click or tap here to enter text. EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation Peer comparison EPS CAGR Mkt Cap PE (x) P/Bv (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Company (FY20-22E) (Rs mn) (%) FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY22E FY22E RIL 1,16,89,300 16.4 25.8 22.0 19.1 2.6 2.3 2.1 15.8 13.1 10.6 10.0 7.9 IOCL 7,86,356 19.9 10.5 12.7 7.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.5 9.5 7.6 10.4 7.5 BPCL 7,26,959 43.2 23.1 15.0 11.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 14.6 11.7 8.9 17.0 10.3 HPCL 3,08,881 67.3 16.8 7.9 6.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 11.1 8.6 7.3 15.2 7.6 Source: Company, Centrum Research estimates Centrum Institutional Research 2 Reliance Industries Ltd 16 July, 2020 JIO – looking beyond mobility Value unlocking has gone beyond expectations RIL’s decision in Oct’19 to consolidate all Digital initiatives into one entity, JIO Platforms, paved the way to monetize and unlock greater value in their Digital Ecosystem. With investments from 13 marquee investors, RIL has managed to raise ~Rs1.5trn by selling 32.9% stake in JIO in less than 3 months, unlocking significant value for RIL shareholders and progressed towards a digital platform company on par with the likes of Alphabet, Facebook, Tencent, etc and rather being looked only as a Telecom service provider. Exhibit 1: RIL has now divested 32.88% stake in JIO Platforms 67.12% % Marquee Investors 32.88% Source: Company Data, Centrum Google becomes the second largest minority shareholder after Facebook RIL announced the investment of Rs337.4bn by Google in JIO Platforms for a stake of 7.73%, valuing the JIO Platforms at an equity value of Rs4.36trn, similar to Facebook’s deal, however lower than the deals with other investors. With this investment, Google becomes the second largest minority shareholder after Facebook. Google’s investment in JIO Platforms forms a part of the US$10bn investment Fund for Digital India announced by Google few days ago (~US$4.5bn committed in JIO Platforms). The investment will accelerate RIL’s and Google’s objective of expanding the Digital network across the country. Additionally, JIO Platforms and Google have also entered into a commercial agreement to jointly develop an entry level affordable smartphone with optimizations to the Android operating system and the Play Store. Currently, there are around 100mn JIO Phone users in India while 350mn users are still using the feature phones.
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