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A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance MARCH 2012 A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance Editors Jonathan Pincus and Graeme Hugo About this publication A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance © CEDA 2012 ISBN: 0 85801 279 0 The views expressed in this document are those of the authors, and should not be attributed to CEDA. CEDA’s objective in publishing this collection is to encourage constructive debate and discussion on matters of national economic importance. Persons who rely upon the material published do so at their own risk. Designed by Robyn Zwar Graphic Design Photography: iStock Photo Library unless specified below. Chapter 1.3: Returned wounded men collecting for Red Cross in Macquire Street, believed to be ANZAC Day 1916, Fairfax Syndication/Fairfax Archives. Chapter 1.2: Ivan Glover, manager at Penrith Valley Oranges in Castlereagh, Fairfax Syndication/Dallas Kilponen. Chapter 1.1: The Australian and Afghan Army at Musazai in the Uruzgan Province in Afghanistan, Fairfax Syndication/Angela Wylie. Chapter 2.2: Airport Terminal 3 for SkyWest and Virgin Blue at Perth Airport, Fairfax Syndication/Erin Jonasson. Chapter 2.4:The Muldoon family of Midway Station south of Darwin, Fairfax Syndication. Chapter 3.1: A British family arriving in Port Melbourne in 1964, Fairfax Syndication/Fairfax Archives. Chapter 3.3: Students from Fairfield High School in Sydney, Fairfax Syndication/Brendan Espsito. Chapter 3.4: Security guard and ambulance crew in Newcastle, Fairfax Syndication/Darren Pateman. Chapter 4.4: Avoca’s main street, Fairfax Syndication/John Woudstra. About CEDA CEDA – the Committee for Economic Development of Australia – is a national, independent, member-based organisation providing thought leadership and policy perspectives on the economic and social issues affecting Australia. We achieve this through a rigorous and evidence-based research agenda, and forums and events that deliver lively debate and critical perspectives. CEDA’s expanding membership includes more than 900 of Australia’s leading businesses and organisations, and leaders from a wide cross-section of industries and academia. It allows us to reach major decision makers across the private and public sectors. CEDA is an independent not-for-profit organisation, founded in 1960 by leading Australian economist Sir Douglas Copland. Our funding comes from membership fees, events, research grants and sponsorship. CEDA – the Committee for Economic Development of Australia Level 13, 440 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia Telephone: +61 3 9662 3544 Fax: +61 3 9663 7271 Email: [email protected] Web: ceda.com.au A GREATER AUSTRALIA: POPULATION, POLICIES AND GOVERNANCE 3 Contents Foreword CEDA Chief Executive Stephen Martin Introduction The issues in brief . 6 Jonathan Pincus, Graeme Hugo This chapter establishes the aims and objectives of the report, provides an overview of the issues and a brief outline of the contents of this publication. Section 1 .0 Historical perspectives 1 .1 Populate or perish . 16. Mark Thomson This chapter examines if Australia requires a larger population for reasons of defence. 1 .2 A century of debate about population and the environment: Key issues . 26 Alaric Maude This chapter considers the natural environment both as a constraint on wellbeing as well as a resource contributing to economic growth. 1 .3 Pipe dreams and tunnel visions: The course of population debates in Australia . 34 William Coleman This chapter discusses the history of the population debate in Australia since the early twentieth century, and particularly the views held by economists. Section 2 .0 Population futures 2 .1 Forecasts and projections of Australia’s population . 50 Peter McDonald This chapter outlines Australia’s demographic situation and analyses future scenarios including ABS projections, as well as mortality, fertility, migration and ageing. 2 .2 Australia Unbound? Migration, openness and population futures . 60 Mark Cully and Laze Pejoski This chapter analyses contemporary immigration in a global context and future migration scenarios, drivers and trends. 2 .3 Population distribution and internal migration . 72. Graeme Hugo This chapter analyses the stability and change in Australian population distribution, including regional population trends and the roles of international and internal migration. 2 .4 Climate change in Australia: Implications for population . 96. Don Gunasekera This chapter examines climate change predictions and the potential for this to impact on the spatial pattern of settlement and production. 2 .5 Climate change implications of a large Australian population . 104. Barry Brook This chapter examines the interaction between energy demand and the natural environment and what role it will play on Australia’s capacity for population growth. A GREATER AUSTRALIA: POPULATION, POLICIES AND GOVERNANCE 3 Section 3 .0 Society and the individual 3 .1 Immigration and public opinion . 114 Andrew Markus This chapter provides analysis of polling of Australian attitudes toward population growth, size and composition as well as immigration. 3 .2 Social inclusion and multiculturalism: The impact of international migration . 134 Graeme Hugo, Patricia Njuki and Sanjugta Vas Dev This chapter discusses the impact international migration has had in Australia and implications for public policy, especially policies to encourage social inclusion. 3 .3 Linkages between education and productivity . 150 Dehne Taylor This chapter examines the linkages between productivity and the education system and the implications for an ageing Australia. 3 .4 Healthcare delivery for our ageing population: What does Australia need to do? . 162 Francesco Paolucci and Ian McRae This chapter discusses of the implications and options of caring for an ageing population, focusing on chronic conditions, their prevention and treatment. Section 4 .0 Impacts and implications 4 .1 The economic effects of population growth and migration . 176. Jonathan Pincus and Judith Sloan This chapter analyses the role population plays in economic growth and the implications of alternative population scenarios. 4 .2 Urban infrastructure and land use . 186. Henry Ergas This chapter examines public and private planning for growth of cities including options for financing and the provision of community infrastructure. 4 .3 Water security: Water for the farm and the city . 202 John Langford and Nathan Taylor This chapter describes how the Murray-Darling Basin could become more significant for global food security. 4 .4 Critiquing government regional development policies . 212 John Daley This chapter examines the rational for policies for decentralisation and their effectiveness. Section 5 .0 Conclusions and recommendations 5 .1 The future of population policy . 224 Glenn Withers A GREATER AUSTRALIA: POPULATION, POLICIES AND GOVERNANCE A GREATER AUSTRALIA: POPULATION, POLICIES AND GOVERNANCE 4 5 Foreword It is with pleasure that I present CEDA’s latest major research report, A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance. This publication is a culmination of two years of work and draws together 17 expert contributions from across Australia. CEDA has undertaken this project, under the editorship of Professors Jonathan Pincus and Graeme Hugo, to provide considered discus- sion on the future population of Australia, dispel myths, highlight constraints and make policy recommendations. Population is a topic that receives much attention, but comment and debate is not always backed by rigorous analysis. Public unease with the population debate is often centred around government policy or planning failures, from inadequate service provision to poor infrastructure planning. This highlights the importance of government policy being developed from robust dis- cussions and a strong foundation of facts. The key policy recommendations CEDA is making as a result of this publication are that: The Federal Government should establish an Australian Population Council (APC), to coordinate government service delivery nationally in response to population changes. The APC should be responsible for annual projections of demographic change for the purpose of ensuring smooth State and Federal Government service delivery. In particular, the focus should be on the areas of infrastructure delivery (roads and community infrastructure), education and health requirements. This would allow more proactive policy responses to population changes as they emerge, rather than reactively. In addition, the Federal Government should supplement the Intergenerational Report, which examines the ramifications of an ageing population, with a Future Generation Report, which examines the participation, education and training solutions that could mitigate the negative elements of Australia’s current age structure. For example, exam- ining ways of ensuring longer workforce participation. The nation’s leaders must not shy away from having a robust discussion around Australia’s future demography and its implications for public policy. CEDA hopes this publication will provide an important resource in driving that discussion. I would like to thank the editors and all the contributing authors for their work towards this publication. Ultimately the greatness of Australia as a place to live and work will be determined by the policies underpinning population change. CEDA hopes this document will contrib- ute to making a greater Australia. Professor the Hon Stephen Martin Chief Executive
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