The Paradox of Power The Paradox In an era where the development of new technologies threatens to outstrip strategic doctrine, David Gompert and Phil Saunders offer a searching meditation on issues at the forefront of national security. Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific will find much to consider in this timely and important book. —Henry Kissinger The Paradox of Power In this book, David Gompert and Phil Saunders make an important contribution both to American strategic thinking and to the future of U.S.-China relations. Grounded in the Sino-American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability international experience in nuclear deterrence yet fresh and novel, their recommendations for mutual strategic restraint in space and cyber relationships between the two countries are deep and compelling. Gompert and Saunders take a new look and come up with a practical way forward in areas that are difficult, important, sensationalized and little understood. Both interested citizens and government specialists and policymakers will Gompert and Saunders benefit from their work. —ADM Dennis Blair, USN (Ret.) former Director of National Intelligence and Commander, U.S. Pacific Command For the United States, avoiding an adversarial relationship with China cannot be accomplished through wishful thinking or adjustments in defense spending. Despite many overlapping interests between the two countries, strategic mistrust is growing and has the potential to overwhelm areas of cooperation. This seminal book addresses this problem head on, focusing on how to achieve stable deterrence through mutual restraint in three critical areas—nuclear weapons, computer systems, and space—where both countries are vulnerable to attacks. The authors, two experienced and respected experts, provide thoughtful analysis and constructive recommendations. Readers will gain a better understanding not only of these strategic issues but also of the complex dynamic at the heart of the U.S.-China relationship. —J. Stapleton Roy former U.S. Ambassador to China David C. Gompert and Phillip C. Saunders CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CHINESE MILITARY AFFAIRS INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY The Paradox of Power The Paradox of Power Sino-American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability By David C. Gompert and Phillip C. Saunders Published for the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Institute for National Strategic Studies By National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. 2011 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. Cover image: USS Mustin conducts emergency breakaway drill while on patrol in South China Sea. Photo courtesy of U.S. Navy/Kenneth R. Hendrix. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gompert, David C. Paradox of power : Sino-American strategic restraint in an era of vulnerability / by David C. Gompert and Phillip C. Saunders. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. 1. United States--Foreign relations--China. 2. China--Foreign relations--United States. 3. Strategic culture--United States. 4. Strategic culture--China. 5. Deterrence (Strategy) I. Saunders, Phillip C. (Phillip Charles), 1966- II. Title. JZ1480.A57C6 2011c 327.73051--dc23 2011041137 NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. 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In the hope of a safer world for Audrey Gompert, Kofi Burke, Anoushea Burke, Miles Saunders, and Linnea Saunders Contents List of Illustrations .................................................................................. ix Foreword .................................................................................................... xi Preface .......................................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ................................................................................xvii Executive Summary ..............................................................................xix Chapter One Introduction ................................................................................................1 Chapter Two U.S. Views on Strategic Power, Vulnerability, and Restraint ............................................................................................ 19 Chapter Three Chinese Views on Strategic Power, Vulnerability, and Restraint ............................................................................................ 39 Chapter Four Mutual Nuclear Restraint .................................................................... 71 Chapter Five Mutual Restraint in Space ................................................................... 95 vii viii THE PARADOX OF POWER Chapter Six Mutual Restraint in Cyberspace .....................................................115 Chapter Seven Integration and Implications ............................................................153 Chapter Eight Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................185 About the Authors ..............................................................................197 Illustrations Figures Figure 1–1. Cost by Type of Attack................................................. 10 Figure 1–2. Deaths by Type of Attack ............................................ 11 Figure 4–1. Cost of Offense Dominance in Missile and Intercept Systems ........................................................... 75 Figure 5–1. Costs of Offense and Defense in Space Domain ............................................................................106 Figure 6–1. China’s Internet Usage (1990–2009) .....................122 Figure 6–2. China’s Foreign Direct Investment Flows ...........124 Figure 6–3. Diminishing Returns on Investment in Cyber Security ............................................................................133 Figure 6–4. Cyber Attack: Offensive Capability Versus Vulnerability ...................................................................137 Figure 6–5. Deterrence in the Cyber Domain ..........................139 Tables Table 1–1. Human and Economic Costs of Strategic Warfare Compared .......................................................... 11 Table 5–1. U.S. and Chinese Investment in Space ..................... 97 Table 6–1. Economic Cost of Cyber Attack by Sector ...........119 Table 6–2. Cyber Deterrence: Possible Versus Necessary .....139 Table 8–1. Levels of Mutual Trust and Cooperation in Strategic Domains ....................................................187 ix Foreword The second half of the 20th century featured a strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. That competition avoided World War III in part because during the 1950s, scholars like Henry Kiss- inger, Thomas Schelling, Herman Kahn, and Albert Wohlstetter analyzed the fundamental nature of nuclear deterrence. Decades of arms control negotiations reinforced these early notions of stability and created a mutual understanding that allowed U.S.-Soviet competition to proceed without armed conflict. The first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the relationship between the United States and China. That relationship is likely to contain elements of both cooperation and competition. Territorial disputes such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea will be an important feature of this competition, but both are traditional disputes, and traditional solu- tions suggest themselves. A more difficult set of issues relates to U.S.-Chi- nese competition and cooperation in three domains in which real strategic harm can be inflicted in the current era: nuclear, space, and cyber. Just as a clearer understanding of the fundamental principles of nuclear deterrence maintained adequate stability during the Cold War, a clearer understanding of the characteristics of these three domains can provide the underpinnings of strategic stability between the United States and China in the decades ahead. That is what this book is about. David Gompert and Phillip Saunders assess the prospect of U.S.- Chinese competition in these domains and develop three related analytic findings upon which their recommendations are built. The first is that in each domain, the offense is dominant. The second is that each side will be highly vulnerable to a strike from the other side. And the third is that the retaliating side will still be able to do unacceptable damage to the initiating party. Therefore, the authors make an important recommendation: that the United States propose a comprehensive approach based on mutual restraint whereby it and China can mitigate their growing strategic vulnerabilities. Unlike the Cold War, this mutual restraint regime may not take the form of binding treaties. But patterns of understanding and restraint may be enough