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The Phenomenon of Suburbanisation in Szczecin and Neighbouring Communes Based on the Analysis of Voter Turnout in 2000  2015

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The Phenomenon of Suburbanisation in Szczecin and Neighbouring Communes Based on the Analysis of Voter Turnout in 2000  2015 Katarzyna Molska1 THE PHENOMENON OF SUBURBANISATION IN SZCZECIN AND NEIGHBOURING COMMUNES BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF VOTER TURNOUT IN 2000 2015 Keywords: Voter turnout; parliamentary, local, presidential, European parliament election; suburbanisation; mobility of people; neighbouring communes ABSTRACT: Th e article is based on the analysis of changes in voter turnout from 2000 to 2015. It considers all types of election, including presidential, parliamentary, local, and European parliament one within the territory of West Pomerania, detailing the municipal district of Szcze- cin; Police District, with Dobra (Szczecińska) commune, Kołbaskowo and Police; and Stargard District, with Kobylanka commune. Focusing exactly on this area is no coincidence and closely relates to the mobility of people. Th e analysis enabled the formulation of the following hypothe- sis: communes neighbouring cities attract politically conscious human potential; and the attempt at answering the research question referring to the observed phenomenon: whether the subur- banisation in Szczecin and neighbouring communes is a fact. A detailed analysis of the voter turnout in Szczecin allowed for observing a repeatable tendency of the suburbanisation phenomenon. It does not, however, occur spontaneously. Th e location of Szczecin with regard to its neighbouring communes is of key importance. Th e communes include: Goleniów; Police; Dobra (Szczecińska); Kołbaskowo; Stare Czarnowo, and 1 Katarzyna Molska, Institute of Political Science and European Studies, Faculty of Humanities, University of Szczecin, [email protected]. Th e Phenomenon of Suburbanisation in Szczecin and Neighbouring 93 Kobylanka. Th ey can be described as urban-rural and rural communes. Suburbanisation is specifi ed as ‘the decentralisation of urbanised areas that relate to the migration of people on city outskirts whilst keeping a safe distance and a possibility of travelling from the place of residence to work fast’ (Małek, 2011, p. 433). Figure 1 serves to enhance the under- standing of the process through illustrating the mobility of people between Szczecin and its neighbouring communes. Figure 1. Th e mobility of people between Szczecin and its neighbouring communes Source: own elaboration. Th e methodological groundwork of the paper is based on a quantitative comparative method. Combining the two methods allows for systematis- ing the collected data and performing a multivariate analysis. Th e inves- tigation of voter turnout level is largely performed through the verifi cation of quantifi able variables (March, Stocker, 2006, p. 258). Moreover, the paper employs the process of giving subjectivity to the phenomenon, which involves relating the external features of elements and their char- acteristics to individual, partial traits, attributes and ways of perceiving reality by the knowing subject (Olechnicki, Załęcki, 2004, p. 208), and an analysis of one particular phenomenon. 94 KATARZYNA MOLSKA Th e article is aimed at presenting the analysis of changes in voter turn- out that took place on the territory of the Republic of Poland in selected years during 2000 – 2015 including the infl uence of suburbanisation on the turnout. Th e analysis enabled the formulation of the following hypoth- esis: cities’ neighbouring communes attract politically conscious human potential; as well as an attempt at answering the research question relating to the observed phenomenon: whether the phenomenon of suburbanisa- tion in Szczecin and its neighbouring communes is a fact. On analysing the turnout for domestic election, it may appear that Polish society does not use the unimaginable egalitarianism of democracy, forgetting about the role of sovereigns (Krastew, 2015, p. 44). Th e act of government legitimacy constitutes an important part of social life. Unfor- tunately, surveys and reality show that voter turnout continues to be unsatisfactory. A survey conducted by Public Opinion Research Centre (Polish: CBOS) on state obligations towards citizens and vice versa points to two aspects to be observed by comparing data from 2009 to 2013. Th e percentage of individuals in whose opinion the obligations of Polish citi- zens towards the state entail the participation in election for the highest authorities in Poland fell by 11%. Concurrently, the number of respond- ents claiming to have no such obligation rose from 9% in 1999 to 21% in 2013 (CBOS, 2013, p. 5), which shows that the citizens do not believe in real infl uence on the shape of the political scene. Simultaneously, it could be inferred that a demanding attitude of the citizens towards their state has escalated. Attempts have been taken to explain voter turnout. In macro-scale, it may be explained via communitarian theory, which assumes that strong group bonds, identifying oneself with the group and a sense of community serve as contributory factors. Such statements are only justifi ed when considered subjectively (Cześnik, 2009, p. 23). According to Downs and his theory based on a rational choice, there are two major benefi ts result- ing from the participation in a vote. Th e fi rst benefi t is ‘instrumental, triggered by the particular election result and closely related to the prob- ability of casting the deciding vote’ (Cześnik, 2009, p. 32), while the second one, ‘consumer benefi t, results from fulfi lling a civic duty and acting in accordance with an internalised norm’ (Cześnik, 2009, p. 32). Th e role of Th e Phenomenon of Suburbanisation in Szczecin and Neighbouring 95 interests aimed at by individuals or small social groups on a particu- lar territory are also of considerable signifi cance. Encouraging an individual to participate in election is largely based on creating a conviction on a subjective interest of an individual in the society. It translates into an increased interest in politics and political behav- iours, triggering a sense of empowerment in a larger group that aims for achieving individual goals (Skarżyńska, 2002, pp. 41 – 42). Th e identifi cation of actions and beliefs with the actions and beliefs of a group results from sharing basic types of underlying group con- formism (Olechnicki, Załęcki, 2004, p. 244), stemming largely from the awareness of group belongingness. Such observations can be made on small social groups functioning on urban-rural and rural territories. Th e atomised rural communities do not favour the above relations. Urban surrounding conduces alienation and escape from politics. West Pomerania constitutes a common denominator for the ana- lysed area of 21 districts. Traditionally assumed division involves municipal and county districts, the latter ones including the districts of: Białogard, Choszczna, Drawsko, Goleniów, Gryfi ce, Gryfi no, Kamień, Kołobrzeg, Koszalin, Myślibórz, Police, Pyrzyce, Sławno, Stargard, Szczecinek, Świdwin, Wałcz, and, since 2002, Łobez. Munic- ipal districts, being cities with district rights, in this case include: Koszalin, Szczecin and Świnoujście. Communes directly adjacent to the borders of Szczecin belong to diff erent districts, with the com- munes of Police, Dobra (Szczecińska) and Kołbaskowo constituting a part of Police district, Stare Czarnowo commune forming a part of Gryfi no district, Kobylanka commune belonging to Stargard district, and Goleniów commune – to Goleniów district. DATA ANALYSIS All the types of election took place in the discussed period, i.e. presidential, local, to the Sejm and Senate (Lower and Higher House of Polish Parliament), as well as European parliament. 96 KATARZYNA MOLSKA Th e analysis of data recorded by the National Electoral Commis- sion in Poland, population registers in separate communes and the Central Statistical Offi ce [GUS] confi rmed the trend regarding intra- province migration. Internal migrations mean changes in permanent (or temporary) residence which involve crossing the administrative border of a com- mune in order to settle permanently (or temporarily). Internal migra- tion includes changes from temporary to permanent residence registration in a particular community if the preceding permanent residence registration was in a diff erent commune. In terms of urban- rural communes, migration is also seen as a change of residence between urban and rural areas of the commune. Internal migration does not account for a change of residence within one administrative unit, as this form of mobility does not entail any alterations to the population or its structure for the unit. Internal migration comprises Figure 2. Attractiveness rate for migration in 2013 Source: Th e Statistical Offi ce in Szczecin. Population, natural mobility and migra- tion in West Pomerania in 2013 (137). Th e Phenomenon of Suburbanisation in Szczecin and Neighbouring 97 inter-province mobility, i.e. the movement of people from one province to the others, and intra-province movement, i.e. changes in the place of residence of people within the same province. Th e term ‘infl ow’ is under- stood as a new registration for a permanent residence, while ‘outfl ow’ means registering out of a permanent residence (GUS, 2011, p. 16). Namely diverting the direction of migration, which until the turn of 2000 and 2001 had been refl ected in depopulation of rural areas. Starting with 2002, the trend reversed. Since then, cities have been depopulating in favour of urban-rural and rural areas. Furthermore, rural areas are characterised by a positive real population growth and positive net migra- tion. In 2004 West Pomerania saw a peak in net migration curve and real population growth. Th e following
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