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Workforce 2000- Work and Workers in the Twenty First Century

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Workforce 2000- Work and Workers in the Twenty First Century DOCUMENT RESUME ED 290 887 CE 049 551 AUTHOR Johnston, William B.; And Others TITLE Workforce 2000: Work and Workers for the 21st Century. INSTITUTION Hudson Inst., Indianapolis, IN. SPONS AGENCY Employment and Training Administration (DOL), Washington, D.C. REPORT NO HI-3796-RR PUB DATE Jun 87 NOTE 143p. PUB TYPE Reports - Research/Technical (143) -- Books (010) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC06 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Aging (Individuals); Demography; *Economic Climate; Economic Factors; *Educational Needs; *Employment Patterns; Employment Problems; Employment Projections; Females; *Futures (of Society); *Labor Force; *Labor Needs; Manufacturing Industry; Minority Groups; Policy Formation; Productivity; Public Policy; Racial Integration; Service Occupations; Sex Fairness; Trend Analysis ABSTRACT Four key trends will shape the American labor force in the final years of the 20th century. The American economy should grow at a relatively healthy pace. Despite its international comeback, however, U.S. manufacturing constitutes a much smaller share of the economy in the year 2000 than it does today. The work forCe will grow slowly, becoming older, more female, and more disadvantaged. The new jobs in service industries will demand much higher skills. These trends raise a number of important policy issues. If the United States is to continue to prosper, policymakers must find ways to accomplish the' following: stimulate balanced world growth; accelerate productivity increases in service industries; maintaill the dynamism of an aging work force, reconcile the conflicting needs of women, work, and families; integrate Black and Hispanic workers fully into the economy; and improve the educational preparation of all workers. Because of the uncertainty of long-range economic forecasts, three scenarios of the U.S. economy in the year 2000 have been devised. The first of these, the baseline or "surprise-free" scenario, calls for a modest improvement in the growth rate that the nation experienced between 1970 and 1985 but not a return to the boom times of the 1950s and 1960s. The "world deflation" scenario focuses on the possibility that a worldwide glut of labor and production capacity in food, minerals, and manufactured goods could lead to a sustained deflation and sluggish economic growth. The third scenario, the "technology boom," postulates a powerful rebound in U.S. economic growth to levels that are comparable with the first two decades after World War II. (MN) *********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * * from the original document. * *********************************************************************** 4 i a s. ariattorir,01- soucialoi -,.- c4Educationot ftworch end turovonsint, ; TIONAL FITESOUFtiES INFORMATION CENTER (1911C) Title document het teen reitoduceil " trotted, (tom the oeston of ranizatial ocrnatita it, :13 %Unit chimes hatetarn trade to 1mptomt reptothrartrehti to.° Ponte or or;:ons Weld In this dcou, ^ mem da not noessattly !nitrogen! other :pest possion0( prey. t "PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS MATE.TIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED,Br /7 TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)."" AIL Sig.P-....1101.111PAS' Published by Hudson Institute, Inc. Herman Kahn Center 5395 Emerson Way P.O. Box 26-919 Indianapolis, IN 46226 USA Telephone: (3171 545-1000 Telex 855477 The views in this study are solely the views of the authors. No opinions, statements of fact, or conclusions contained in this document can properly be attributed to the Institute, its staff,its members, or its contracting agencies. 3 s. WORKFORCE 2000 Work and Workers for the Twenty-first Century William B. Johnston Project Director Arnold E. Packer Co-Project Director With Contributions By Matthew P. Jaffe Marylin Chou Philip Deluty Maurice Ernst Adrienne Kearncy Jar!! Newitt David Reed Ernest Schneider John Thomas HUDSON INSTITUTE Indianapolis, Indiana June 1987 4 , 1 ABOUT HUDSON INSTITUTE Hudson Institute is a private, not-for-profit research organization with headquarters in Indianapolis, Indiana. Hudson specializes in the analysis of policy problems and the formulation of policy options for government and private sector clients. Hudson analysts strive to approach research in a creative and innovative fashion, while at the same time stressing the importance of providing decisionmakers with practical, usable analyses. Hudson's goal is to help policymakers make the best possible decisions within constraints of time, money, and information. In its work, Hudson employs various methods and disciplines, but relies on no single spedfic methodology. This electic, multidisciplinary approach ha become the hallmark of Hudson Institute studies. Hudson researchers were among the pioneers in the use of "scenarios" a technique used to gain insights by posing alternative hypothetical future outcomes. Scenarios help to give decisionmakers a better understanding of the likely consequences of various policies, as well as the implications of both likely trends and less likely, but not implausible, events. There are no "official" Hudson Institute positions. Hudson studies reflect the views of those who work on them. Hudson's staff includes about 35 research professionals experienced in many disciplines, but sharing a broad, multidisciplinary outlook. In addition to its full-time professional staff, the institute has access to its public and fellow members, as well as to a wide range of expert consultants in the United States and abroad. The Institute was founded in 1961 by the late Herman Kahn and colleagues from the Rand Corporation. Initially, the Institute's primary focus was on policy issues involving national security and international order. This emphasis reflected Herman Kahn's contributions to the understanding of nuclear strategy in his books On Thermonuclear War, Thinking About the Unthinkable, and On Escalation. The Institute's research has always emphasized the value of a long-term perspective on policy issues, and therefore the development of techniques for studying the future especially the long-range future. In 1984, Hudson moved its headquarters to Indianapolis, Indiana. Hudson also maintains offices in Alexandria, Virginia, Montreal, Canada, Brussels, Belgium, and Bonn, Federal Republic of Germany, and manages the Center for Naval Analyses in Alexandria, Virginia. 5 z", V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Hudson Institute takes a broad multifaceted approach to futures research, relying on expertise from many disciplines. This project has been conducted in that tradition. Within the institute, many research- ers made significant contributions to the study. Among the most important were those of Matthew Jaffe on the future skill require- ments of the economy, Mary lin Chou on the impacts of women and older workers on the economy, Philip Deluty on the shift to services, Adrienne Kearney on the impacts of immigration, Jane Newitt on the demographics of the future workforce, David Reed on economic scenarios, Ernest Schneider on future social and political changes, John Thomas on workplace literacy, and Maurice Ernston the dynamics of the international economy. In addition, the project benefited from the ideas, criticism and advice of Frank Armbruster, Denis Doyle, Rob Melnick, and Jimmy Wheeler, the research assis- tance of Brad Huang and Nancy Bernardon, and the skillful editing of Carol Kahn and Ernest Schneider. Yvonne Swinton and Karen Whitehouse provided essential administrative support. Perhaps most importantly, the insight,. patience, and support of Hudson's President Thomas D. Bell, Jr. contributed vitally to the project's success. In addition,Workforce 2000has benefited from the counsel and criticism of a group of distinguished experts from outside Hudson Institute. Meeting periodically to review the research results, thi!, group has been invaluable in testing the ideas, probing the evidencf., and critiquing the logic of the study's recommendations. The3e experts included Gordon Berlin of the Ford Foundation, Pat Choate of TRW, William Kolberg of the National Alliance of Business, Malcolm Lovell of George Washington University, Connie Newman, .ind Robert Teeter of Robert Teeter Associates. Mac Lovell, in particular, contributed to the project, not only with his sharp insights, but sith his gracious hospitality on numerous occasions. While these advisors bear no responsibility for the report's conclusions or its analysis, they vi have helped immensely in sharpening the research focus and clari- fying the issues. The research that led to this book was funded by a grant from the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor. While the department deserves credit for its far-sighted com- mitment to long-range policy research, it bears no responsibility for the conclusions and policy recommendations presented here. The research, writing, analysis, and judgements of Workforce 2000 were left exclusively to the study's authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Labor or any of its officials. While they bear no blame ior the failings of this study, three officials within the department deserve great credit for initiating and pursuing the Workforce 2000 project. Secretary William E. Brock, whose concern with these issues preceded his leadership of the Department of Labor, provided the original inspiration for undertak- ing the work and valuable guidance as it progressed. Roger D. Semerad, Assistant Secretary for Employment and Training, and
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