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Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation Assessment in the East Africa Region

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Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation Assessment in the East Africa Region VULNERABILITY, IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN THE EAST AFRICA REGION CHAPTER 9: WATER, AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, AND WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE – FUTURE IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE NOVEMBER 2017 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd. under subcontract to Tetra Tech ARD. This report was produced for review by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd. under subcontract to Tetra Tech ARD, through USAID/Kenya and East Africa Contract No. AID-623-C-13-00003. CAMCO WATER, AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM AND WATER SUPPLY TEAM Prof. Bancy Mati, Dr. Lydia Olaka, Dr. Titus Ndiwa, Dr. Omar Munyaneza, Dr. Sylvester Kasozi, Dr. Dorothy Nyingi, Ms. Rosemary Masikini, Dr. Susan Namaalwa, Ms. Stella Simiyu TECHNICAL REVIEWERS Prof. Francis Mutua, Mr. Michael Mugarura, Mr. Robert Wanjara Tetra Tech ARD 159 Bank Street, Suite 300 Burlington, Vermont 05401 USA Tetra Tech ARD Contacts: Anna Farmer Korinne Nevins Project Manager Assistant Project Manager Tetra Tech Tetra Tech Burlington, Vermont Burlington, Vermont Tel.: (802) 658-3890 Tel.: (802) 658-3890 [email protected] [email protected] VULNERABILITY, IMPACT, AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN THE EAST AFRICA REGION CHAPTER 8: WATER RESOURCES, AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS AND WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE – FUTURE IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE NOVEMBER 2017 DISCLAIMER This report is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. VIA: Water Resources, Aquatic Ecosystems, and Water Infrastructure – Future Scenarios iii CONTENTS CONTENTS .........................................................................................................................................iv ACRONYMS .......................................................................................................................................... v 1. IMPORTANCE OF THE WATER SECTOR......................................................................... 1 1.1 Sector Priority in the Five East African Community Countries ................................................... 1 1.2 Catchment Conservation ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Water Availability and Access for Increasing Population ............................................................... 4 1.4 Importance of Hydro-Meteorological Monitoring ........................................................................... 5 2. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SECTOR ....................................................... 7 2.1 Impacts on Water Availability ............................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Impacts on Groundwater ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Impacts on Water Quality ..................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Impacts on Water Supply Infrastructure .......................................................................................... 11 2.5 Impacts on Aquatic Ecosystems ......................................................................................................... 11 2.6 Summary of Key Potential Impacts on the Water Sector ........................................................... 12 3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECTOR FUTURE PROJECTIONS IN EAST AFRICA .... 18 3.1 Projecting East Africa’s Future Climate ............................................................................................ 18 3.2 Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Water Availability in the Lake Victoria Basin ........................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.3 Future Projections of River Discharges into the Lake Victoria Basin....................................... 28 3.4 Discussion of Results ............................................................................................................................. 44 4. ADAPTATION PRACTICES, OPTIONS, AND CONSTRAINTS.................................. 46 4.1 Emerging Water Resources Issues in the Lake Victoria Basin ................................................... 46 4.2 Policy, Institutional Frameworks, and Ongoing Initiatives ........................................................... 51 4.3 Gaps in Institutional Capacities for Adaptation .............................................................................. 55 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................... 57 APPENDIX ......................................................................................................................................... 63 Appendix I: River Discharge Statistical Results ............................................................................................ 63 VIA: Water Resources, Aquatic Ecosystems, and Water Infrastructure – Future Scenarios iv ACRONYMS AIC Akaike information criterion EAC East African Community EWS Early warning system IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management LVB Lake Victoria Basin LVEMP Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action NBI Nile Basin Initiative NELSAP Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program SAP Strategic Action Plan USAID United States Agency for International Development VIA: Water Resources, Aquatic Ecosystems, and Water Infrastructure – Future Scenarios v 1. IMPORTANCE OF THE WATER SECTOR 1.1 SECTOR PRIORITY IN THE FIVE EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY COUNTRIES Water is essential for life, but only 2.53 percent of the world’s available water is freshwater that can be used to sustain societies and the natural ecosystems. People require a reliable and clean supply of drinking water to maintain health and to sustain agriculture, energy production, navigation, recreation, and manufacturing. These competing water demands put pressure on water resources and the water systems that keep ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population. But rivers, lakes, and aquifers are drying up or becoming polluted. More than half the world’s wetlands have disappeared since 1900 (Barbier 1993). Climate change is likely to exacerbate these stresses. In many areas, climate change is likely to increase water demand while shrinking clean water supplies. This shifting balance will challenge water managers to simultaneously meet the needs of a growing population, sensitive ecosystems, irrigation supply, energy producers, and manufacturers. Changes in climatic parameters have a direct impact on the social, economic, and environmental well-being the community. Major droughts in East Africa have resulted in sharp reductions in agricultural output, productive activity, and employment. This has lowered agricultural export earnings and led to other losses associated with decline in rural income, reduced consumption and investment, and destocking with additional multiplier effects on the monetized economy. Major droughts were recorded in East Africa in 1970, 1975, 1979–80, 1989–90, 1999/2000, and 2005. When weighted by impact on gross domestic product (GDP), drought poses a substantially higher impact risk than floods (EAC 2009). The economic impacts of drought in the East African Community (EAC) member states are summarized in Table 1. Table 1: Economic Impacts of Drought in the East African Community Drought Rainfall deficiency Agricultural GDP GDP loss in Loss on export year (%) loss in % % earning 1970/71 15.2 0.50 0.07 17.00% 1979/78 22.0 1.58 1.13 7.98% 1980/83 29.0 27.00 10.00 20.00% 1990/91 10.2 (0.22) 0.43 17.50% 1992/94 11.9 3.64 (1.60) (9.00%) 1999/00 7.0 11.18 1.44 (8.48%) Source: Economic Impact of Climate Change in the East African Community—Final Report 2009. Water and sanitation are at the core of sustainable development. Already water security for the EAC countries is low and is projected to be lower by 2025. The Sustainable Development Goals require countries to ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all by 2030. Therefore, solutions that would spur progress toward long-term availability for all should be prioritized. The EAC countries have outlined some priority areas of intervention to ensure sustainability in the water sector. The key priorities include catchment conservation, water availability and access, rainwater harvesting, and setting up hydro-meteorological stations. The five EAC Partner States VIA: Water Resources, Aquatic Ecosystems, and Water Infrastructure – Future Scenarios 1 have identified these priorities in their respective National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) and National Vision Statements (Box 1). Box 1: Water Sector as a Key Priority in the 5 EAC Partner States v Burundi has as priorities, the popularizing of rainwater harvesting techniques, setting up mechanisms to control erosion-sensitive areas, and protecting strategic buffer zones around lakes in Bugesera (Republic of Burundi 2007). v Kenya’s Vision 2030 proposes development of two multipurpose water conservation structures along
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