University of Reading Unintended Outcomes of Ethiopia's State-Led

University of Reading Unintended Outcomes of Ethiopia’s State-Led Development A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for Degree of Doctor of Philosophy By Mark Neuse March, 2019 1 Declaration I confirm this is my own work, that the use of all material from other sources has been properly and fully acknowledged. 2 Abstract Ethiopia’s centralized programmes of economic growth and social development are bringing the nation towards achievement of its goal of becoming “a middle-income country by the year 2025” (MoE, 2015: 11). Significant advances in social programmes have resulted in longer life spans, increased incomes, and a much better educated population. Yet, unexpected outcomes are inadvertently threatening the state. The emergence of a thriving middle class, especially among those employed in service industries in the metropolis of Addis Ababa, has resulted in a demand for better and more comfortable housing. However, residential and other construction has only been possible through the expropriation of land along the periphery of the city and this is displacing hundreds of thousands of smallholders. At the same time, the federal government has considerably increased educational opportunities. Although this has been widely beneficial, it has also resulted in secondary school leavers and university graduates who substantially outnumber current employment opportunities. While issues of developmentally induced ousting and youth unemployment pertain to other areas of Ethiopia, they are occurring particularly rapidly along the periphery of Addis Ababa. Ousted smallholders must quickly adopt new non-farm livelihoods while a better-educated youth cohort must find suitable and proper employment. A sense of groupism has moderated the reactions of smallholders to their ousting even as the frustration of unemployment among youth groups is manifesting in anti-government disturbances. These issues existentially threaten Ethiopia’s political and social order. This thesis explores the reactions of smallholders and students to Ethiopia’s successful social and economic development through a conceptual examination of the role of in situ and ex situ displacement narratives. It finds that different groups have exhibited significantly divergent reactions to their circumstances. It concludes that while Ethiopia’s form of centralized development has undeniably benefitted the nation, those benefits are, themselves, inadvertently resulting in secondary issues which impinge upon stability and individual prosperity. 3 Dedication In remembrance of ‘Professor’ Norm Kearney, a pilot who flew in the Berlin Airlift and who sparked a life-long interest in foreign affairs, and dedicated to my wife, Mona, without whose help and assistance this would not have been possible. 4 Table of Contents Abstract 3 List of Figures, Maps and Photographs 15 List of Referenced Ethiopian Proclamations 16 Chapter 1 An Examination of Displacement in Ethiopia 1.0 Introduction to the Thesis 18 1.1 Ethiopia’s Successful State-led Development 19 1.2 Background of the Problem 21 -- Certainty of Displacement in sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia 22 -- Ethiopia in Transition 24 -- The Significance of Youth Unemployment and Under-employment 24 1.3 The Research Question 26 -- Establishing Place Attachment 27 1.4 The Research Approach and Objectives 28 1.5 Why Study Change in Ethiopia? 30 -- Outcomes of Ethiopia’s Growth and Development 31 -- Geographic Scope 32 1.6 Structure of the Thesis 32 Chapter 2 A Review of Literature Concerning the Effects of Development on Poverty, Place Identity, and Displacement 2.0 Introduction 34 2.1 What is Development? 35 2.1.1 The Bretton Woods Conference and the Modern Development Era 36 5 -- The Bretton Woods Framework 37 2.1.2 State-led Development 39 -- State Power and Development 39 2.1.3 Centralized Development in Ethiopia 39 -- Early Economic Growth in Zenawi’s Ethiopia 40 -- Zenawi and Job Creation 42.2 What is Poverty? 42 -- Chronic and Transient Poverty 44 2.2.1 Deepening Poverty in sub-Saharan Africa 45 2.2.2 Poverty in Rural Ethiopia 48 2.2.3 Job Creation and Under-employment in Ethiopia’s Formal and Informal Economy 46 -- Formal and Informal Sectors 47 -- The Formal Economy and the Beginnings of Under-employment 48 2.3 Locus of Control, Self-efficacy, and Risk Aversion 48 -- Self-efficacy 49 -- Risk-aversion 50 2.3.1 Business Risk Aversion and Cultural Obligations 51 2.3.2 Horizontal Inequality 51 -- Income Inequality and Poverty 52 -- Income and Horizontal Inequality 53 2.4 Relative Disparity, Youth and the Beginning of Violence 54 -- Peer Group Sustainment 54 2.5 Displacement Through Development 55 2.5.1 Common and Intersecting Categories of Displacement 56 2.5.2 In situ and Ex situ Displacement 57 2.5.3 Success Amongst Oustees 58 2.6 Groupism and Social Systems 59 -- Assimilation, Belonging and Liminality 60 -- Social Systems and the Family 62 6 2.7 Economic and Conflict Displacement in Ethiopia 63 -- Conflict Displacement 63 -- Effects of Displacement on Children 64 2.7.1. Displacement Through Infrastructure Construction and Land Investment in Ethiopia 65 -- The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 66 -- Foreign Land Investment 67 -- Large Scale Leasing as Federal Policy 69 2.7.2 Addis Ababa and Oromia Special Zone Integrated Development Master Plan 69 -- Changing Developmental Imperatives 69 -- The FinFinne Special Zone 70 -- Proxy Reactions to Resettlement and Relocation Programmes 71 2.8 Social and Educational Displacement 72 -- Different Forms of Displacement Outcomes 72 2.9 Ethiopia’s Education Policy 74 -- Enrolment and Goals 75 2.9.1. Social Displacement Resulting from Education 76 -- High and Low Context Participation 78 2.9.2 Enculturation 80 2.9.3 Place Attachment and Farming 81 2.9.4 The Process of Place Acculturation 82 2.9.5 Enculturation and Path Dependence 83 -- The Social Loss of Place Identity and Culture 84 2.9.6 Loss of Place and Cultural Bereavement 85 2.9.7 The Effects of Loss of Place Attachment in Rural Ethiopia 87 -- The Value of Friendship Networks 92 2.10 Summary 88 7 Chapter 3 Methodology 3.0 Introduction 90 3.1 Research Approach and Rationale 91 3.1.1 Social Constructionist, Constructivist, and Grounded Theories 92 -- Social Constructionist and Constructivist Theory 92 -- Grounded Theory 94 3.1.2 Power Typologies 95 -- Knowledge and Experientially Based Power 96 3.1.3 Positionality and Ethics 97 -- Research Ethics 98 -- Interview Format 99 3.2 Research Methodology 100 3.2.1 Competing Research Approaches 100 -- Quantitative Method 101 -- Qualitative Method 102 -- Mixed Methods 103 3.2.2 Document Review 104 -- Content Analysis 105 -- Triangulation of Responses 105 3.2.3 Interview Access and Sample Size 105 -- Access 106 -- Sample Size 107 -- Focus Group Discussion 109 3.3 Study Area Characteristics 111 -- Environmental Characteristics 111 3.3.1 Field Work 112 3.3.2 Research Locations 113 -- Lalibela 113 8 -- Sheshamane 115 -- Addis Ababa and the Surrounding Area 116 -- Illustrative Value of the Three Study Areas 119 3.4 Conclusion 119 Chapter 4 Stage Setting 4.0 Introduction 121 4.1 Historical Synopsis of Ethiopia 1122 4.1.1 Emperor Menelik II 123 4.1.2 Emperor Haile Selassie I 123 -- Property Rights in the Selassie-era Ethiopia 124 4.1.3 World War II and the Cold-War Influences 125 -- Super Power Contestations 125 4.2 The Dergue Government 126 4.2.1 Dergue Land Distribution and Resettlement 127 -- Provincial Origins of the Dergue :Leadership 128 -- Forced Resettlement and Food Shortages 128 4.2.2 Educational Reforms 129 4.3 The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front 130 4.3.1 Constitutional Articles and Current Property Takings 131 4.3.2 The Structure of Ethiopia’s Federal and Subordinate Governments 132 -- Federal Ethiopia 133 4.3.3 Regions 133 -- Regional Government Structure 136 4.3.4 The Wereda 136 9 -- Land Valuation at the Wereda 137 -- Land Registration Certificates 137 4.3.5 Kebeles 140 4.3.6 Local Observations of Expropriation Outcomes 141 4.4 Development Induced Displacement and Mega Projects 142 -- Urbanization 142 4.4.1 Mega Projects 143 -- Ethiopian Mega Projects 145 -- Minimalist and Maximalist Takings 146 4.5 State-led Programmes of the Developmental State 146 4.5.1 Ethiopia’s Development Plans 148 -- Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Plan 149 -- SDPRP Development Strategies 149 -- Plan for Accelerated Development to End Poverty 151 -- PASDEP Reliance on Agricultural Employment 151 -- Growth and Transformation Plan 152 -- Industrial Development Strategic Plan 154 -- Second Growth and Transformation Plan 154 4.6 Post-conflict Economies 155 -- Post-conflict and Peace Stability 156 -- Ethiopia’s State-led Development and the Middle-class 157 4.7 Chapter Summary 158 10 Chapter 5 Ethiopia’s Development and In Situ and Ex Situ Displacement 5.0 Introduction 161 5.1 Ethiopia’s Development Approach 162 5.1.1 Prime Minister Zenawi’s Development Vision 163 -- Basic Manufacturing Skills 164 5.1.2 National Development Priorities and Transformation Plans 165 5.1.3 The Growth and Transformation Plans 166 -- First Post-Zenawi Plan 167 -- Infrastructure and Exports 168 5.1.4 Development and Land Expropriation at the Micro-level 168 -- Extent of Expropriations 169 5.1.5 Smallholder Response to Imposed Changes 170 5.2 Pro-poor Policies in Ethiopia 172 5.2.1 Adaptation and Social Obligations 173 -- Social Sharing Obligations 174 -- Difficulty in Hiring Displaced Smallholders 175 5.2.2 Gender Bias in Agricultural and Development Programmes 176 -- Bias in Business Development 178

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