From: Uncloakedbill (Original Message)What U Want It to Be
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From: UncloakedBill (Original Message) What u want it to be Sent: 29/05/2004 15:05 Earlier this week I made a couple of posts here and because I am a technological cretan I was incapable of copying and pasting a daily e- mail I put together. I found myself in a position of e-mailing our host and committing to placing a post here concerning daytrading and certain S/R calcultions known as "niners".....here goes: there are various S/R calculations available to the public which use the prior ranges on daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis.There use, as I understand it, is to try and capture the future movement of price basis the inertial effect of the mkt at hand .From those calulations the next objective is to use the matrix of numbers to isolate support and resistance for the TIME frame under review. Most people I have come across during my reletive short time in cyberspace (3.5 years) focus on the prior daily range and the calculations derived from identifying a PIVOT price thusly: H+L+C divided by 3 and then using that calculation as the basis for the matrix...I first started using these in 1984 when I gleened them from the forerunner of CNBC known as FNN--they were brought to the public as best as I can tell by systems pioneers Larry Williams and Tom DeMark, who used to be daily pre-market guest on FNN. Subsequently, as is the case in most of these related approaches such as caramilla and niners they were really already in use by FLOOR TRADERS and floor traders function somewhat similarly to grocery checkout clerks with a nice mark up known as the EDGE. So here is what a "niner" is: step one: take the prior daily range for the mkt at hand (examples will be in SPOO pit trade) and multiply it by 9 per cent to obtain the base number. STEP TWO: add and subtract the base Number to the prior daily close in multiples of the BASE number to form the matrix. EXAMPLE: friday May 28th to obtain tuseday June 1 2004 would be-(1.) Range =1117.5L and 1123H= 5.5 handles (2) 5.5 x .09=.495 base number (3) close =1120.30 (4) matrix calculations- 1120.3 +,- .495; 11120.3 +,- .495 x 2; then x3, x4,x5,x6,x7 etc until you have obtained a large enogh matrix to satisfy BOTH the normal daily range and an EXPANDED range. Normal and expanded ranges are easily obtained by running an MA of daily range and locating the extrmes compared to the average--NOW IT SHOULD BE CLEAR if one read the post to GOPI as to the aspect of focusing on the Base x multiples of 3 that in the example sited above one would look a t 1118.7 and 1121.8 (rounded) as a start point for possibilities of confluance of other TA that one might use to ENTER trade and calculate risk.It is of interest that Frdiay was an extremely contracted range --the avg being 10-13 currently..In addtion to devising the matrix using the steps above and focusing on the targets that are evenly divisible by 3 x the BASE (3,6,9,12, etc.) one might look closely at the matrix numbers that are associated with the Normal range bands +,- the prior CLOSE and the ones that MATCH the Normal range +,- the a.m. low or high on TRADE DAY--if one were to use the elbow grease to gleen price behavior after contracted days or REALIZE that the current normal base figure is 9 percent of 10-13 handles then one would probably not be frustrated by the seeming 'tightness' of the matrix intrevals--PUTTING IT TOGETHER: assuming for hypothetical use that the avg day is 10 handles and the close were 1120.3 then one would see 1117.6(3x), 1114.9(6x),1112.2 (9x) and 1110.4(11x= NORMAL range DOWN closest # and actual 1110.3= avg 10 handles in down day) and then do the opposite for the resistance......the reverse for a CONTRACTED range where expectation is to revert to the NORMAL range or an expanded range is where an expanded range occurs and then one would focus on the reversion to NORMAL or contacted using the same techinque --such are niners as a matrix for support and resistance and like any other technique for calcultaing S/R the more you study their past behavior AND the more you use them in REAL TIME the more adept at the subtle nuances one will become--next part :DAYTRADING and the reason for the subect title of the thread-- Sent: 29/05/2004 15:42 Daytrading; a little background- I began in retail brokerage 11/13/78 with MLPF&S and quit retail to trade full time 8/1/87 as "selling shoes" to the public started interfering with what I really enjoyed.My first introduction to computers as a tool for investment came in 1980 with OLD apples that ML made available followed by the canned Epson(lol/$5000) required by CQG in 1984 and lastly I moved from CQG to Tradestaion Products around 1990 or 91 and have been using them ever since.It was my good fortune to have as a retail customer, the late Rodnay Rougelot and his wife Sylvia beginning in 1981.Mr. Rougelot, a top drawer gentleman, told me he had a nephew in he industry who at one time had also worked for ML but that the nephew had left ML, moved to Georgia, written a book and was now on his own dispensing market adviceMr. Rougelot had not read the book because he was a 'coupon clipper' and retired Gulf Oil exec.His nephew was Robert Rougelot Prechter, so I began counting waves by hand from that point forward on an hourly basis until going with CQG products and to maintain feel I did continue to count manually until 1988 on an hourly basis.Along the way I spent 5 years (1984-89) chasing Gann and spending a bunch of money on phone calls to Billy Jones and the Lamberts.I have some very peculiar ideas about Gann and his contributions which would be disagreed with by most --what little I know about Wychoff I learned from a former 'partner' of Prechters' named David Weiss, who also had a Phd in Southern Dialects (USA), became steeped in edwards and magee , devoured Wilder(rsi, etc) and Lane's (stochastics) published works, poured thru lefevres "reminiscences of a stock operator", took up NLP from Bandler/Grinder and lastly took Van Tharpe's psychological profile and course for traders,and became somewhat close with a wonderful former CBOE Exec VP James F Dalton who had the publishing rights from Peter Steidelmayer for Market Profile at the time-- all BEFORE 1989 and much of it before I bagan trading full time in august of 1987...in other words: ALL THE USUAL SUSPECTS and I have enormous respect for each and everyone of them while also realizing that not a ONE ever made an entry or exit for me ---I mention all this junk because the following may rankle or assist but it only my opinion on my experiences so I reckon you can make it "whatever you want it to be" Sent: 29/05/2004 17:00 I believe that the markets are a faciitation mechanism for capitalism and that regardless of what ones part in the markets may be, they are part of ONE enormous mathematical set which they can reduce to an individual sub-set..Are you a farmer, brokers or broker secretary, floor broker, institutional money manager, etc??? Do you have the wherewithal to use Benjamin Grahams' SECURITY ANALYSIS to become the next Buffett, Templeton , or Lynch??Are you a FED Gov. or Central Banker???Are you a 'goat entrail reader '(what people who used Technical Analysis were referred to when I started this pursuit) who loves to compete and uses $ gained/loss as the yardstick? whatever you are , you better figure out 3 things:(A) in which sub-set you belong (B) what the rules of that sub-set are as it relates to your individual TIME parameter, which is easily quantified by your capitaliztion; which in turn defines your ability to quantitatively identify how much risk in the form of your currency of choice that you are willing to assume and (C) since most studies indicate that if you are a member of the sub-set known as TRADERS-- or furthur reduced by one factor a DAYTRADER-- and that most lose in that sub-set endeavor THEN you better find out as fast as possible if you are emotionally capable to pursue that career.....for instance most here if they knew me, since yall are by and large foriegners from what I can tell, would conclude correctly that I am not only the quintessential UGLY AMERICAN, I am very very UGLY--sorta the ying to my friend Ian T's yang whom I 'converse' with daily and with whom I have had the honor of being hosted by most graciously for lunch so from that perspective this is dytrading to me: THER IS NO such thing as MARKET MANIPULATION, crooks or any of that rot that allows for EXCUSES for poor performance because you diod NOT know and LOVE the rules of the subset to which you belong..... there are only PLAYERS from each subest APPLYING the rules of their particular subset in order to satify their need to be loved and accpeted within their subset and the yardstick is, was, and will be PERFORMANCE as expressed by profit and loss that will determine their love and acceptance on an individual basis.Assuming you have taken a psychological battery to determine if you are candidate for a particualr subset or should maybe take up guitar instead or have enough experience to intuitively know the next step is to identfy the RULES associated with TRADING basis your emotional level of acceptance as expressed by TIME and CAPITALIZATION--the rules for TRADING have not changed one iota since the 1792 (USA measurements), the first rice candlestick, or English grain prices--you must identify your subset and your TIMEFRAME .It is almost pitiable to see all the enrgy expended on EW prjection #'s contrasted to EW as a rule for risk measurement that is correlated to the individual TIME frame which is deduced from capitalization