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Download the Publication ASIA PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT NO. 99 SEPTEMBER 2001 Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership: INSIDE Some Reflections on A Threat to American Interests? the Russian-Chiense Partnership STEVEN I. LEVINE • ALEXEI D. VOSKRESSENSKI • PAGE 3 JEANNE L. WILSON Russian-Chinese Partnership in a “New” Global Context Introduction PAGE 8 Gang Lin Prospects for Russian- Chinese Relations: Whither the Strategic decade after the end of the Cold War, Partnership? the United States faces the prospect of PAGE 14 A a potential Sino-Russian strategic realignment, a possibility that rekindles memo- ries of the Sino-Soviet alliance in the 1950s. Russian-Chinese strategic partnership reveals The development of this renewed Sino-Russian the two countries’ uneasiness with the uni-polar partnership has been facilitated by the delin- post-Cold War world order, but differed as to eation of the long-disputed border between the whether such a partnership will develop into an two countries, their common interests in eco- anti-Western alliance. Containing three essays nomic and military exchanges, and their shared contributed by seminar speakers, this special opposition to a “uni-polar” world order domi- report explores the possibility of a Russian- nated by the United States. Left unanswered, Chinese strategic alliance and its implications however, is the degree to which China’s eco- for the United States. nomic potential and Russian arms sales to In the first essay, Steven I. Levine of the China will enhance the two countries’ strategic University of Montana argues that the Russian- partnership. What will be the political impact Chinese strategic partnership emerged as an on the two countries’ bilateral relations of expression of the two countries’ unhappiness increasing Chinese migration into the Russian with the post–Cold War world order dominated Far East? To what degree will U.S. national mis- by the United States, but emphasizes that this sile defense proposals promote the further new grouping cannot offer a concrete alternate development of a Sino-Russian strategic rela- paradigm to the present international system. tionship? The Russian-Chinese strategic partnership, as a Four China and Russia experts explored the “second-tier” relationship, can serve to exert ASIA PROGRAM prospects for a Sino-Russian strategic partner- pressure against the West in order to reinforce ship as well as its implications for U.S. foreign the “first-tier” relations that Moscow and policy interests during a April 11, 2001 seminar Beijing must develop with the West. Russian on “Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership: A and Chinese leaders therefore need to strength- Threat to American Interests?” co-hosted by the en their strategic partnership, primarily by Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program and focusing on areas of bilateral concern, without the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian jeopardizing their links with the United States. Studies. Panelists agreed that the emergence of a The disparity in power and wealth between Gang Lin is Program Associate in the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program. ASIA PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT Russia and China provides both opportunity and impelled by a commercial imperative, and the hope danger for their bilateral relations. In order to enjoy to influence the foreign policy behavior of the a strategic partnership with China, Russians must United States.Wilson lists several constraints on the swallow their pride and be willing to play second development of a Russian-Chinese strategic part- fiddle to the Chinese virtuoso, at least temporarily. nership, including Russian fear of the “sinification” While both countries pledge to respect each other’s of the Russian Far East and the marginal develop- territorial integrity, it is not certain whether the ment of trade and economic cooperation between Russian Far East will be an arena of cooperation or the two countries. Like Levine and Voskressenski, conflict between Russia and China over the next Wilson believes both Russia and China are more half century,Levine cautions. concerned with their relationships with the United In the second essay, Alexei D.Voskressenski of States than their relationship with each other, but the Moscow-based MGIMO-University agrees she joins with Voskressenski in arguing that the pres- with Levine that Russian-Chinese relations cannot ence of the United States as the predominant actor 2 be an alternative to their relations with the United in the world serves as a powerful stimulus impelling States and do not constitute an anti-Western bloc. Russia and China toward the development of a Partnership with China is important for Russia in strategic partnership. the intermediate term, as it provides markets and In commentary delivered during the seminar, labor resources for Russia and psychologically com- Alexander Lukin of the Brookings Institution pensates for Russia’s vulnerability in Eurasia. For emphasized the geopolitical dimension of Russian China, partnership with Russia is the major factor and Chinese strategic partnership. According to bolstering its efforts to transform itself into a global Lukin, Russian-Chinese partnership is not based on power.Voskressenski observes that the Kosovo crisis their marginal economic exchanges, but is driven by had a profound impact on the development of the their shared desire to maintain the status quo in Russian-Chinese partnership. As a result of the cri- world politics. Such a view was enhanced by sis, it has become clear that the world is far from NATO’s 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia without the moving towards multi-polarity.The swift enlarge- endorsement of the United Nations. The prospect ment of NATO towards the East or the acceleration for a Sino-Russian strategic partnership is contin- of American missile defense programs, however, may gent upon each’s relations with the United States. push the Russian-Chinese relationship toward an The more the United States acts unilaterally, the anti-Western alliance,Voskressenski warns. more likely Russia and China will be drawn togeth- The third essay by Jeanne L. Wilson of er to check this uni-polar trend, Lukin concluded. Wheaton College contends that both Russia and This special report explores the possibility of a China are motivated to develop a strategic partner- Sino-Russian strategic realignment, which is driven, ship based on independent assessments of their con- among other things, by their shared desire to exert vergent mutual interests. These include the mainte- pressure against the United States. Such a partner- nance of peaceful, stable and secure relations along ship could threaten U.S. interests around the world, the Russian-Chinese border, the Russian sale of although this is not preordained. While both weaponry and related technologies to China Moscow and Beijing at present still focus less on their mutual relationship than each’s relationship THE ASIA PROGRAM with the United States, no one can guarantee that the two countries’ strategic priorities will remain The Wilson Center’s Asia Program is dedicated to the proposi- the same under all circumstances. The signing of a tion that only those with a sound scholarly grounding can begin Sino-Russian treaty of friendship and cooperation to understand contemporary events. One of the Center’s oldest in July 2001 was an important milestone in the regional programs, the Asia Program seeks to bring historical and cultural sensitivity to the discussion of Asia in the nation’s development of a Sino-Russian strategic partnership capital. In seminars, workshops, briefings, and conferences, that deserves America’s attention. prominent scholars of Asia interact with one another and with policy practitioners to further understanding of the peoples, tra- ditions, and behaviors of the world’s most populous continent. SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: A THREAT TO AMERICAN INTERESTS? Some Reflections on the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership STEVEN I. LEVINE uring the past decade in which Russian- gists forged an anti-Soviet alignment with the PRC Chinese relations have undergone a sea that undergirded Sino-American relations until the D change, Americans concerned with inter- end of the Cold War. national politics have paid scant heed to a subject in Many observers were so invested in the Sino- which we used to take an almost obsessive interest. Soviet conflict which, they mistakenly asserted, was Instead, we have viewed China’s rise and Russia’s fall rooted in immutable historic enmities, that they failed as separate dramas, worthy of attention only insofar as to notice signs of Sino-Soviet rapprochement until they individually influence America’s paramount the process was almost complete. Fortunately, by that 3 position in the international system. This neglect is time, Soviet-American relations had improved to the unfortunate. First, the history of the past century sug- point that Washington was able to accept the reality gests that the state of relations between Russia and of Sino-Soviet normalization with equanimity. China, two of the great nations of the world, has an Unfortunately,it turned out that the imposing edifice important impact upon regional stability in the Asia of Sino-American relations had been constructed on Pacific region and upon the world as a whole. a sandy foundation. Seen in this light, the architects of Second, the interest that Russians and Chinese take Sino-American normalization in the 1970s, including in, and the lessons they draw from, each other’s affairs Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, and Zbigniew will influence the trajectory of development in both Brzezinski, deserve far less credit for their achieve- countries. ment than they are commonly accorded. Mine, as Our insouciance concerning the state of Russian- usual, is a minority view. Chinese relations is in marked contrast to the era of The point of this exercise is not to inflict a history the Cold War, when the subject of Soviet-Chinese lesson upon a captive audience, even though that may relations commanded the attention of battalions of be an historian’s prerogative, but rather to emphasize U.S.
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