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Appendix: the Information Crisis and the Need to Improve the Availability and the Use of Relevant Statistics

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Appendix: the Information Crisis and the Need to Improve the Availability and the Use of Relevant Statistics Appendix: The Information Crisis and the Need to Improve the Availability and the Use of Relevant Statistics The international monetary and financial crisis has also been a major information crisis at both the national and international level. This was true for Stage I of the crisis (the “subprime crisis”) and for Stage II (the “debt crisis”). Decisions are about the future—information is about the past. There is a broad agreement that the availability, the quality and the timeliness of qualitative and quantitative information have a major impact on the quality of the decisions of both private and public actors in the modern economy. Yet, the general disaffection following the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007–8 for the so-called theory of rational expectations has to do with the (belated) dual recognition that (1) all information (or the most relevant information) is not available or correct, and (2) statistics from the past are far from being a perfect guide for the future, especially when it comes not only to projecting “trends” but predicting major “events” that disrupt trends. The importance of this information and expectation issue has been dramatically demonstrated on two occasions since 2008: the suddenness and magnitude of the “subprime crisis” and the outbreak and brush-fire effect of the following “debt crisis.” The so-called information age or information society has been as much of a problem as an improvement when dealing with data relating to the com- plex economic structures of a globalized economy. As noted in Chapter 1, the great progress in hardware and software for collecting, storing, process- ing and distributing information that has occurred during the last 20 years has not prevented serious gaps in information or outright misinformation at the macro as well as at the micro level. Many claim, not without justifica- tion, that the “subprime crisis” was to a large extent an “information crisis” where the information problems were a combination of incompetence and of deliberate attempts to mislead markets and regulators. The Stage II debt crisis—with the outbreak of the “Greek debt crisis”—was a textbook example of negligence with respect to crucial information at all levels: government authorities, EU and ECB experts as well as leading international financial advisors and managers. The “information crisis” has multiple aspects. The most common prob- lems included: lack of availability of data, lack or insufficient comparability, insufficient diffusion or access, and the ignoring or misinterpretation by 240 Appendix 241 official and private observers and decision makers of the message coming from the data. There was, however, also: deliberate distortion or falsifica- tion, restricting access or diffusion by both private and official bodies to essential information that could have attenuated or even prevented some of the worst consequences of the crisis, as well as systematic disinformation of investors, of authorities and the general public at large. The most funda- mental and most widespread “information breakdown” was the systematic ignoring of the storm warnings coming from the data—deliberately disre- garding the “handwriting on the wall.” These problems have been recognized, although belatedly, by many people within national and international organizations, in the corporate world and in the research community. Since 2009–10 there have been notable efforts to improve the quality and the volume of the data relevant for the analysis of the debt situation at any given moment and of the trends and likely future developments. There has been a series of initiatives by organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, the BIS, the ECB, the European Commission as well as the national monetary and economic authorities, to speed up the availability of data and most importantly to better coordinate their availability. Further, the definition and use of tailor-made “warning packages” (such as the IMF “Fiscal Monitor”) have increased. Four major general lessons for the future should be mentioned here: 1. It is necessary to narrow the scope of “proprietary information,” both for “ business-sensitive” and “politically restricted” data. 2. There is a need for much closer and effective cooperation as well as com- petition and “redundancy” in data collection and diffusion. 3. Market transparency has to be enforced independently and much more systematically than in the past. 4. Finally, it is important to recognize that the prevailing confusion about what is available and to whom and on what conditions ( subscribers, cli- ents, government officials) represents a major source of future problems and has to be addressed as an urgent issue at the highest levels. There remains much to be done on all four accounts. Some of the problems are technical, others are due to the unwillingness by both private and offi- cial actors to share information: “information is a key source of power” and tends to make the difference between success and failure, both for individu- als and for organizations. It should be remembered, however, that discrimi- nation in the access to essential information is contrary to the very nature of an open, liberal and competitive economic system. If there is no “level play- ing field” in terms of transparency and information the market economy cannot function properly. It is no exaggeration that recurring breakdowns in the access to relevant information could become a major economic and political threat to the very survival of “globalization” itself. Bibliography Ackerman, Frank and 101 Economists (2012) “Letter to Trade Ministers Re: Promoting Financial Stability in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,” February 28, ase. tufts.edu. Allen, Franklin and Douglas Gale (2000) “Financial Contagion,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 108, pp. 1–33. Allen, William and Richchild Moessner (2010) Central Bank Co-operation and International Liquidity in the Financial Crisis of 2008–2009, BIS Working Papers No. 310, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements, June. Alloway, Tracy (2011) “A (Hard) Greek Restructuring by the Numbers,” Financial Times, May 9. Alloway, Tracy, Megan Murphy and David Oakley (2011) “Investors Count Costs to Banks of Greek Default,” Financial Times, May 10. Alogoskoufis, George (2012) Greece’s Sovereign Debt Crisis: Retrospect and Prospect, Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe, GreeSE Paper No. 54, London School of Economics and Political Science, January. Amador, M. (2008) Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons, Working Paper, Stanford University. American Economic Association (1950, 1958) Readings in the Theory of International Trade, London: George Allen & Unwin, Ltd. American Economic Association (1952, 1956) Readings in Monetary Theory, London: George Allen & Unwin, Ltd. Ang, Andrew and Francis A. Longstaff (2011) Systemic Sovereign Credit Risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 16982, Cambridge, MA: NBER. Angelatos, George-Marios and Jennifer La’O (2011) Optimal Monetary Policy with Informational Frictions, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 17525, Cambridge, MA: NBER. Angeloni, Chiara and Guntram B. Wolff (2012) Are Banks Affected by their Holdings of Government Debt? Bruegel Working Paper 2012/07, Brussels, March. Angeloni, Ignazio and Jean Pisani-Ferry (2012) The G20: Characters in Search of an Author, Bruegel Working Paper 2012/04, Brussels, March. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos, Sophia Dimeli, Apostolis Philippopoulos and Vanghelis Vassilatos (2010) Rent-Seeking Competition from State Coffers in Greece: A Calibrated DSGE Model, Working Papers No. 120, Bank of Greece. Arndt, Swen W., Richard J. Sweeney and Thomas D. Willett (1985) (eds) Exchange Rates, Trade and the U.S. Economy, Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute and Ballinger Publication. Åslund, Anders (2010) The Last Shall Be the First: The East European Financial Crisis, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Attali, Jacques (2010) Tous ruinés dans dix ans? Dette publique: la dernière chance, Paris: Fayard. Bairoch, Paul (1970) Diagnostic de l’évolution économique du Tiers-monde, 1900–1968, Paris: Gauthier-Villars. 242 Bibliography 243 Bairoch, Paul (1997) Victoire et déboires: Histoire économique et sociale du monde du XVIe siècle à nos jours, Paris: Gallimard. Bandulet, Bruno, Wilhelm Hankel, Bernd-Thomas Ramb, Karl Albrecht Schachtschneider, Udo Ulfkotte (2011) Gebt uns unsere D-Mark zurück: Fünf Experten beantworten die wichtigsten Fragen zum kommenden Staatsbankrott, Rottenburg: Gebundene Ausgabe, May. Bank for International Settlements (2011) 81st Annual Report, 1 April 2010–11 March 2011, Basel, June 26. Bank for International Settlements (2012) “European Bank Funding and Deleveraging,” BIS Quarterly Review, March 12. Bank for International Settlements (2012) 82nd Annual Report, 2011–2012, Basel, June. Bank of Greece (2011) Monetary Policy Report 2011–2012, March. Bank of Greece (2012) Bulletin of Conjunctural Indicators, No. 142, January–February. Bank of Greece (2012) Aggregated Balance Sheet of Credit Institutions, February. Bank of Greece (2012) Governor’s Annual Report, April. Bank of Greece (2012) List of Credit Institutions Authorized in Greece, April. Bernanke, Ben S. (2000) Essays on the Great Depression, Princeton: Princeton University Press. Bernanke, Ben (2012) “The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis Origins and Mission of the Federal
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