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Sõjateadlane 7/2018 | Kümme Aastat Vene SÕJATEADLANE Estonian Journal of Military Studies 7 / 2018 CULTURAL, PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES SERIES Volume I Religion and Politics in Multicultural Europe: Perspectives and Challenges Edited by Alar Kilp and Andres Saumets Volume II Extremism Within and Around Us Edited by Alar Kilp and Andres Saumets Volume III The Law of Armed Conflict: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives Edited by Rain Liivoja and Andres Saumets Volume IV Sõna sõjast ja sõda sõnast. Tekste ja tõlgendusi War of Words, Words of War. Texts and Interpretations Edited by Andres Saumets and Vladimir Sazonov Volume V Operatsioon “Iraagi vabadus”: kümme aastat hiljem Operation “Iraqi Freedom”: Ten Years Later Edited by Andres Saumets, Holger Mölder and René Värk Volume VI The Crisis in Ukraine and Information Operations of the Russian Federation Edited by Vladimir Sazonov, Andres Saumets and Holger Mölder Volume VII Kümme aastat Vene-Georgia 2008. aasta sõjast: peegeldusi hübriidsõjast ja Venemaa poliitilistest ambitsioonidest Ten Years after the Russo-Georgian War of 2008: Reflections on Hybrid Warfare and Russia’s Political Ambitions Edited by Karl Salum and Andres Saumets KAITSEVÄE ÜHENDATUD ÕPPEASUTUSED SÕJATEADLANE Estonian Journal of Military Studies CULTURAL, PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES SERIES SERIES EDITORS: ANDRES SAUMETS AND KARL SALUM VOLUME VII: KÜMME AASTAT VENE-GEORGIA 2008. AASTA SÕJAST: PEEGELDUSI HÜBRIIDSÕJAST JA VENEMAA POLIITILISTEST AMBITSIOONIDEST TEN YEARS AFTER THE RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR OF 2008: REFLECTIONS ON HYBRID WARFARE AND RUSSIA’S POLITICAL AMBITIONS EDITED BY KARL SALUM AND ANDRES SAUMETS SÕJATEADLANE 7 / 2018 SÕJATEADLANE ESTONIAN JOURNAL OF MILITARY STUDIES Peatoimetaja / Editor-in-chief: Andres Saumets (Estonia) Toimetuskolleegium / Editorial Board: Wilfried Gerhard (Germany) Claus Freiherr von Rosen (Germany) Ken Kalling (Estonia) Karl Salum (Estonia) Jörg Keller (Germany) Vladimir Sazonov (Estonia) Erik Männik (Estonia) Volker Stümke (Germany) Andreas Pawlas (Germany) René Värk (Estonia) Nele Rand (Estonia) Keeletoimetajad / Language Editors: Kristiina Haug (Estonia) Kaarin Piiskoppel (Estonia) Reet Hendrikson (Estonia) Marju Randlane (Estonia) Karen Kuldnokk (Estonia) Amy Christine Tserenkova (USA) Nõuandev kogu / International Advisory Committee: Enno Mõts (Committee Manager, Estonia) Tõnu Lehtsaar (Estonia) Raul Järviste (Estonia) Rain Liivoja (Australia) Hubert Annen (Switzerland) Gale A. Mattox (USA) Richard H. Clevenger (USA) Ago Pajur (Estonia) Angelika Dörfl er-Dierken (Germany) Robert Rollinger (Austria) Sharon M. Freeman-Clevenger (USA) Michael N. Schmitt (USA) Martin Herem (Estonia) Martti Turtola (Finland) Thomas R. Kämmerer (Germany) Zdzislaw Śliwa (Poland) Jakob Kübarsepp (Estonia) Ants Laaneots (Estonia) Sõjateadlane (Estonian Journal of Military Studies) on Kaitseväe Ühendatud Õppeasutustes välja- antav, eelretsenseeritav ja rahvusvahelise toimetuskolleegiumiga sõjateaduslik ajakiri. Sõjateadlane (Estonian Journal of Military Studies), the journal of the Estonian National Defence College (ENDC) is a peer-reviewed military journal with an international board of editors and open to international contributors. Väljaandja ja autoriõigus / Publisher and Copyright: Kaitseväe Ühendatud Õppeasutused, 2018 Toimetuse kontakt / Editorial Contact: Riia 12, 51013 Tartu, Estonia Tel: +372 717 6421 E-mail: [email protected] Ajakirja koduleht / Homepage of the Journal: http://www.ksk.edu.ee/teadus-ja-arendustegevus/publikatsioonid/ Kaastööd / Address for Submission: [email protected] Kirjastus / Publishing House: Eesti Ülikoolide Kirjastus, www.eyk.ee ISSN 2461-4378 (print) ISSN 2461-4386 (online) SISUKORD SAATESÕNA ......................................................................................... 7 Karl Salum, Andres Saumets RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR OF AUGUST 2008: CLASH OF IDEOLOGIES AND NATIONAL PROJECTS IN THE ERA OF HYBRID WARFARE ............................................... 12 David Darchiashvili UUS RINNE VENEMAA JA LÄÄNE VAHEL LÕUNA-KAUKAASIAS ....................................................................... 39 Egbert Kurt Jahn VENEMAA HÜBRIIDSÕDA GEORGIAS 2008. AASTAL ................ 62 Riho Ühtegi RUSSIAN AMBITIONS AND HYBRID MODES OF WARFARE ..... 86 Zdzisław Śliwa, Viljar Veebel, Maxime Lebrun RELVASTATUD JÕU KASUTAMISE ÕIGUSPÄRASUS GEORGIA-VENEMAA KONFLIKTIS ................................................. 109 René Värk MAINTAINING THE SECURITY DILEMMA IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: RUSSIA‘S GEOSTRATEGIC INTERESTS IN GEORGIA ................................................................... 137 Lile Gvelesiani, Holger Mölder PUTINI AJASTU – VENEMAA GLOBAALSED AMBITSIOONID .................................. 158 Ants Laaneots SUMMARIES ........................................................................................ 222 CONTRIBUTORS .................................................................................. 236 Karl Salum, Andres Saumets SAATESÕNA Kümme aastat tagasi toimunud augustisõda oli lühike, ent intensiivne sõja- line konflikt Venemaa ja Georgia vahel, mis ei raputanud külma sõja järgse Euroopa julgeolekuarhitektuuri alustalasid. See ei olnud lääneriikidele ka esimeseks häirekellaks Venemaa agressiivsuse kasvu ja jõu kasutamise kohta oma huvide eesmärgil. Konfliktist tegid kindlasti oma järeldused ja asu- sid muudatusi ellu viima eelkõige riiklikud relvajõud ning luureteenistused nii Läänes kui ka mujal maailmas. Poliitiliste ja majanduslike rahvusvahe- liste suhete seisukohalt ei toimunud aga eriti radikaalseid muudatusi või kui toimusidki, siis olid need pigem lühiajalised. Kümme aastat on piisav aeg, et vaadata tagasi selle konflikti tagamaadele (puhkemisele, kulgemisele ja järelkajadele), selgitamaks välja uusi nüansse ja suundi, mis tol ajal võisid jääda märkamata. Siinse kogumiku eesmärk ongi uurida, kas Venemaa käitumises ja tegutsemises viimase kümne aasta jooksul on võimalik leida mingeid üldisi suundi. Seejuures keskendutakse eelkõige hübriidsõja tege- vustele ning sõjalise jõu kasutamisele kui Venemaa naaberriikide jaoks kõige ohtlikumale tegevusele. Need kümme aastat on andnud mõlemale toonasele vaenupoolele, aga laiemalt ka NATO-le ja rahvusvahelisele kogukonnale või- maluse tehtud vigadest nii mõndagi õppida. Georgia ja eriti sellele järgnenud Ukraina konflikti valguses tuleb arvestada tõsiasjaga, et Venemaa poliiti- line käitumine oma naabrite suhtes jääb ka edaspidi ettearvamatuks ning diplo maatilised pingutused uusi kriise ära hoida ei pruugi alati oodatud vilja kanda. Venemaa on selle kümne aasta jooksul sihikindlalt arendanud ja ka katsetanud oma hübriidsõjapidamise võimet ning meil tuleb oma riigikaitse huvides teha selle põhjal tõsised järeldused. David Dartšiašvili (Darchiashvili) annab ülevaate 2008. aasta sõja ajal toimunust ideoloogiate kokkupõrke vaatepunktist ning tutvustab Vene- maa tolleaegset retoorikat, millega agressiooni õigustati. Autor tõdeb, et 2008. aasta sõja puhul saab tagantjärele identifitseerida paljusid tänapäeva hübriid sõja meetodeid ja ilminguid. Autori väitel oli sõjalise initsiatiivi haaranud Georgia president Venemaa hübriidsõjategevuse ja sihipärase õõnestus tegevuse tõttu nurka surutud. Põhilisim hübriidsõja ilming on piiri kadumine rahu ja sõja vahel. See fenomen tekitas maailmas segadust ka 2013. aasta veebruaris toimunud Krimmi poolsaare okupeerimise ajal. Kui võrrelda Krimmi hõivamist ja hilisemat Ida-Ukrainas alanud Venemaa Sõjateadlane (Estonian Journal of Military Studies), Volume 7, 2018, pp. 7–11. www.ksk.edu.ee/teadus-ja-arendustegevus/publikatsioonid/ 8 KARL SALUM, ANDRES SAUMETS mahitatud tavatut sõjapidamist nende tegevustega, mida Venemaa viis ellu juba mitu aastat enne 2008. aasta augusti agressiooniakti, on paralleelid ilm- sed. Ulatuslik infosõja kampaania, mittesõjaline survestamine, riigisiseste nõrkuste ärakasutamine, väga agressiivne relvajõudude tegevus lahingu- ruumis, mis oli kombineeritud poliitilise tasandi salgava või tähelepanu kõvale juhtiva retoorikaga – kõik need on paraku võimalikud Venemaa tege- vused, millega tema väiksemad naabrid peavad arvestama. Egbert Jahn arutleb põhjalikumalt külmutatud konfliktide tekke, arengu ja võimalike lahenduste üle võrreldes Kosovo, Abhaasia ning Lõuna-Osseetia juhtumeid nii ajaloolisest, sotsiaalsest kui ka rahvusvahelise õiguse aspek- tist. Ent sarnaseid territooriume, mille elanikud soovivad suuremat auto- noomiat või iseseisvust, on maailmas veel ning ka seal on sääraste püüdluste aktiveerumisel oht uute külmutatud konfliktide tekkeks. Autor toob ühe või- maliku, ent poliitiliselt sageli mitte kõige lihtsama lahendusena välja n-ö rindejoone õgvendamise, eriti piirkondades, kus etniliste gruppide asualade piirid ei ühti konflikti käigus külmutatud poliitiliste piiridega. Külmutatud konfliktidega seotud probleeme raskendab veelgi suurriikide kaudne osalus konfliktis. Isegi siis, kui kohalikud oleksid suutelised kokkuleppele jõudma, ei soovi kuigi kergelt teis(t)ele järeleandmisi teha suurriigid, kelle jaoks on sageli tegu lihtsalt ühe huvide kokkupõrke piirkonnaga paljudest. See on ka praegu üks peamisi tüliküsimusi Kosovo ja Georgia puhul. Kolonel Riho Ühtegi vaatleb oma artikli alguses hübriidsõja kui mõiste tausta ning selgitab, miks see ei ole nii uudne nähtus kui avaliku meedia põh- jal võiks arvata. Autor käsitab 2008. aasta sõda hübriidsõja perspek tiivis ning näitab, kuidas Venemaa on Georgiat läbi aegade mitmes erinevas hübriidsõja valdkonnas survestanud. 2008. aasta suveks oli nii muude asjaolude tõttu kujunenud kui ka Venemaa kujundanud soodsad
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