fmso.leavenworth.army.mil Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 6 Issue #11 OEWATCH November 2016 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT MIDDLE EAST 3 Jordan and Kenya Hold Joint Military Exercise 4 Who Wants What in Mosul? 5 Crisis in Turkey-Iraq Relations 6 Turkey-EU Refugee Deal on the Rocks 7 Iran: New Heavy Engines on the Drawing Board The Mobilization of 8 Iran: Russia Desperate for Our UAV Technology 9 Iran: Launch of New Zulfiqar Ballistic Missile Special 10 The Return of Yemen’s Republican Guard 11 Aistenok 1L271: Little Storks in Aleppo Essay 12 Egypt: Rumors Fuel Rift with Saudi, Russian Society Rapprochement with Russia p.63 AFRICA CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS 13 African Union’s Plans to Fund Peacekeeping 31 Armenia’s Acquisition of the Iskander Ballistic 14 Ethiopia’s State of Emergency Missile System 15 Refugee Camp Attack in Niger 32 Investigating the Bombing at the Chinese 16 Does Boko Haram’s Alliance with ISIS Rely on Embassy in Bishkek Taxing Migrant Traffickers? 33 The Afghan Government’s Peace Agreement with Gulbiddin Hekmatyar LATIN AMERICA 17 Ignoring the ‘No’ in Colombia? RUSSIA, UKRAINE 17 FARC Leader Comments on the Peace Process 35 How Russia Perceives and Responds to Threats 18 A Spaniard Opines about Colombia 37 The Two Faces of Russia’s Operational Reserve 18 Venezuela Referendum to Revoke 40 Russian Personnel Developments 19 Narco Genetics, Marijuana, and the New 42 Possible Force Structure Changes for Russia’s Generation Cartel of Jalisco in Mexico Combined Arms Armies 19 Organized Crime Violence in Mexico and Mass 46 The Material Technical Support Brigade’s Role Displacement of Communities in Logistical Support 21 Trends in Mexico’s Drug Cartel Landscape 48 Russian Logistic Vehicle Modernization 22 El Salvador Sees a Rise in Gangs’ Use of 49 Russian Military Success in Syria? Automatic Weapons 50 Russia’s Fitter Fighting Force 23 Aerial Fumigation of Cocaine No Longer an 52 Housing for Those Who Chose Russia Option in Colombia 53 Russia’s Fall 2016 Draft 54 Are Russian Naval Pilots Ready? INDO-PACIFIC ASIA 56 Russian-Chinese Naval Training 24 Abu Sayyaf Growing Power Through Ransom 57 Details from Northern Fleet Summer Training Money: Can It Be Stopped? Exercise 24 ISIS Infiltration in the Malaysian Military? 59 Largest Arctic Exercise in History 25 Thai Military to Use UAVs to Patrol Southern 60 Yet Another Specialized Weapon in the Russian Thailand Arsenal 26 Indonesia’s Arrest of Chinese Uighurs Reveals 61 Improving Russian Camouflage New Terrorism Trends in Asia 62 Russian Forecasting Methodology: In Need of Improvement CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN 27 Disrupting the DPRK’s Illicit Trade Activity 28 China Places Sensors in the South China Sea 29 China’s Strategic Support Force Must Innovate 30 Russia and Chinese Naval Exercises Show Convergence of Interests The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission OEWATCH is to Understand, Describe, and Deliver the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives of the Operational Environment Environment. For 30 years, FMSO has conducted open source research Volume 6 | Issue 11 November | 2016 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing Regional Analysts and those topics that are understudied or Expert Contributors unconsidered. Operational Environment Watch Middle East Tara Beeny Karen Kaya provides translated selections and Michael Rubin analysis from a diverse range of Lucas Winter foreign articles and other media that Africa Jason Warner our analysts and expert contributors Jacob Zenn believe will give military and security Latin America Geoff Demarest professionals an added dimension Brenda Fiegel to their critical thinking about the Operational Environment. Indo-Pacific Asia Cindy Hurst Jacob Zenn Materials, outside of the original foreign press China, Korea, Japan Steven Galluzzi article, under copyright have not been used. All Tim Thomas articles published in the Operational Environment Jacob Zenn Watch are not provided in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) media. Central Asia, Caucasus Matthew Stein FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics to these articles to conform to organizational Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles standards. Academic conventions, source referencing, Ray Finch and citation style are those of the author. Tyler Gartner The views expressed are those of the author and Les Grau do not represent the official policy or position of the Joseph McConnell Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or Tim Thomas the US Government. Release of this information does not imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Government to provide any additional information on any topic presented herein. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm The Operational Environment Watch is archived and Editors Ray Finch available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Karen Kaya Design Editor Keith French Contact FMSO at: [email protected] ON THE COVER: The Kremlin and the Russian Coat of Arms. Source: Wikimedia Commons MIDDLE EAST Top Jordan and Kenya Hold Joint Military Exercise OE Watch Commentary: In late September, the ...this exercise is the first military exercise implemented Jordanian Armed Forces conducted a joint training “ exercise with the Kenyan Defense Forces at Embakasi by the Quick Reaction Force outside the kingdom, Garrison in Nairobi, Kenya. The exercise occurred depending entirely upon its own resources, capabilities, as alongside meetings between Jordanian and Kenyan officials aimed at strengthening diplomatic, economic, well as its own weapons and equipment.” and military ties between the two countries. The accompanying excerpted article from Jordanian government-owned Petra News Agency discusses Jordan’s outreach to Kenya. It notes that this outreach aims to build on the “Aqaba meetings,” a series of high- level diplomatic meetings held in Aqaba, Jordan in spring of 2015 and early 2016 which focused on consolidating international efforts against terrorism. The “Swift Eagle” exercise focused on counterterrorism and improving military interoperability. Jordan’s Quick Reaction Force, an element of the Jordanian Special Forces, along with elements of the Kenyan Special Forces took part in the exercise. Jordan’s Quick Reaction Force was established to provide a rapid-response capability to confront emerging crises, particularly along Jordan’s vulnerable desert borders. The Kenyan military’s interest in training with this force reflects the similarity between the challenges Jordan faces in securing itself against the King Abdullah II of Jordan and President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya watch Exercise Swift Eagle at the Embakasi Garrison, Kenya. Islamic State and Al Qaeda, and those that Kenya faces Source: Jordan Armed Forces, http://www.jaf.mil.jo/NewsView.aspx?NewsId=2359#.WAZZ8HowCI5 with confronting Al Shabaab along its northern border. The exercise received broad coverage by the Jordanian الملك يجري مباحثات مع الرئيس الكيني في نيروبي :Source media. Al-Ghad and state-run JRTV carried video of “King holds talks with Kenyan president in Nairobi.” Petra News Agency, 27 portions of the exercise, including footage of an MD-530F September 2016. http://www.petra.gov.jo/Public_News/Nws_NewsDetails. multi-role helicopter, one of half a dozen in service with aspx?lang=1&site_id=2&NewsID=270263&Type=P the Jordanian Special Forces. Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta both attended the Quick Reaction Force implements first self-sufficient exercise joint military training exercise. outside Jordan As mentioned in the excerpted article, Swift Eagle With regard to the regional situation, His Majesty stressed enhancing joint marks the first exercise implemented by the Quick coordination, cooperation, and continuing consultation on priority issues, Reaction Force outside of Jordan, depending entirely especially to address the threat of terrorism and terrorist groups, which threaten upon its own resources, capabilities, weapons, and the security and stability of the Middle East, the countries of the Horn of Africa, equipment. These developments indicate the growing and the world. capabilities of Jordan’s military, and Jordan’s growing Also discussed were efforts to enhance security and stability for the peoples influence outside the Arab world. End OE Watch of the Middle East and Africa and cooperation between their countries to face Commentary (Beeny) common challenges, and to emphasize the importance of building on the results of last year’s Aqaba meetings, where His Majesty the King gathered a number of heads of state and dignitaries, including President of Kenya and the heads of several African countries, as part of a comprehensive participatory approach to coordinate international efforts in the war on terrorism. His Majesty the King and President Kenyatta attended a joint military exercise carried out by the Quick Reaction Force of the Jordanian Armed Forces-Arab Army and Kenyan military Special Forces. It is noteworthy that this exercise is the first military exercise implemented by the Quick Reaction Force outside the kingdom, depending entirely upon its own resources, capabilities, as well as its own weapons and equipment, as this Jordan and Kenya hold joint-military training exercises. force was formed to be a flexible and self-sufficient force, able to carry out tasks Source: Al-Ghad TV, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lijrKic7wTM assigned to it in various circumstances. OE Watch | November 2016 3 MIDDLE EAST Top Who Wants What in Mosul? OE Watch Commentary: The battle for Mosul, the “[An] Iraqi military, which should be a national actor, last ISIS stronghold in Iraq, has begun. On 17 October, does not really exist. There are Shia militia forces, Sunni Iraqi forces and Kurdish forces (peshmerga), backed by coalition air-power, launched what is expected to be a long Arab tribes, and Kurdish forces in Iraq.” and complex operation to re-take the city. However, there are various other groups with competing interests who also want to take part in the operation, with hopes of having a role in the future of Mosul.