This Thesis Has Been Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirements for a Postgraduate Degree (E.G
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This thesis has been submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for a postgraduate degree (e.g. PhD, MPhil, DClinPsychol) at the University of Edinburgh. Please note the following terms and conditions of use: This work is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights, which are retained by the thesis author, unless otherwise stated. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the author. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the author. When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given. The United Kingdom, the United States, and Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia: The Case of Pakistan, 1974-1980 Malcolm MacMillan Craig Ph.D Thesis The University of Edinburgh 2014 ! Declaration I declare that this thesis has been composed by myself, it is my own work, and the work has not been submitted for any other degree or professional qualification. Date………………….. Signature………………………………….......... Abstract This thesis is a history of American and British efforts to halt or retard the Pakistani nuclear weapons programme. It assesses US and UK non-proliferation policy towards Pakistan from the Indian nuclear test of May 1974 to the decline of anti-proliferation activity in 1979 and 1980. A broadly chronological analysis of key government and media sources from American and British archives highlights the development of non-proliferation policy and the factors that influenced anti-proliferation activity. Scrutiny of British—and not just American—involvement in Pakistan’s nuclear programme permits an assessment of the existence of a ‘non-proliferation special relationship’ between Washington and London. This study demonstrates that successive British governments played a significant role in creating, shaping, and at times adversely affecting, non-proliferation activity on the sub-continent. Additionally, this thesis demonstrates that the UK frequently deprioritised non-proliferation concerns in favour of economic considerations, creating tension between London and Washington. Thus, it is shown that there was a close working relationship between the US and UK governments, but the relationship was riven with fissures. Alongside this examination of British policy, this study also examines American policy and attitudes, demonstrating that infighting and conflicts between strategic priorities impaired the effectiveness of American non- proliferation policy. Furthermore, this study offers a detailed examination of the cultural underpinnings of UK-US non-proliferation policy directed against Pakistan. It demonstrates that—contrary to popular and long-lasting media representations—the paradigm of an ‘Islamic bomb’ played no part in the creation and application of non-proliferation policy. This thesis makes it clear that in UK-US efforts to halt or retard Pakistani nuclear attainment, issues of credibility and global standing were far more significant than religious factors. Overall, this study examines a key moment in non-proliferation history and offers new findings on the Anglo-American relationship and the role of cultural factors in shaping foreign policy. Contents Acknowledgements vi-vii List of Acronyms viii-ix Introduction 1-15 Chapter 1: “No hope of preventing proliferation” 16-50 May 1974 to December 1975 Chapter 2: “An end to the first ‘easy’ phase” 51-86 January 1976 to January 1977 Chapter 3: “The omens are scarcely encouraging” 87-129 February 1977 to March 1978 Chapter 4: “A disquieting statement of intentions” 130-163 March 1978 to December 1978 Chapter 5: “A dream of nightmare proportions” 164-214 January 1979 to December 1979 Chapter 6: “Peanuts” 215-248 January 1980 to January 1981 Conclusion 249-257 Primary Sources 258-261 Bibliography 262-272 Acknowledgements First and foremost, this thesis would not exist without the support of my two excellent supervisors, Fabian Hilfrich and Robert Mason. Both have consistently gone above and beyond the call of duty to wisely advise, encourage, and reassure. From the wider history staff at the University of Edinburgh, I would also like to express my sincere thanks to Frank Cogliano, Robert Crowcroft, Owen Dudley-Edwards, Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones, David Kaufman, and Paul Quigley (now at Virginia Tech). I would also like to offer my thanks to my thesis examiners Pertti Ahonen (formerly of Edinburgh, now at the University of Jyväskylä, Finland) and Andrew Preston (Clare College, Cambridge), who read, commented, and made the examination such a rewarding experience. This thesis was completed with the help of the Professor James F. McMillan Scholarship, the Jeremiah Dalziel Prize, and a President Gerald R. Ford Foundation research and travel grant. Without these generous awards, the research for this thesis would not have been so successful. Friends and colleagues within the Ph.D community at the University of Edinburgh have also been an invaluable source of support and advice. In particular, I would like to offer my gratitude to Mark Heise, Frances Houghton, Jane Judge, Mark McLay, Owain Mason, Robbie Maxwell, Adrienne Miller, and Louise Settle. From the global academic community, I would also like to express my thanks to Dolores Janiewski and Malcolm McKinnon (Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand), and Philip Morgan (Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD). No academic endeavour would be possible without considerable administrative support, and it would be remiss of me not to thank the outstanding administrative staff of the School of History, Classics, and Archaeology at the University of Edinburgh. In particular, I should mention Anne Brockington, Margaret Forrest, Richard Kane, Niko Ovenden, Marie- Therese Rafferty, and Lindsay Scott. Likewise, without skilled archivists around the world, our task as historians would be that much harder. The staff of the British Broadcasting Corporation Written Archives Centre (Caversham, Berksire), the Gerald R. Ford Presidential ! vi! Library (Ann Arbor, MI), the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum (Atlanta, GA), the US National Archives and Records Administration (College Park, MD), the National Security Archive (George Washington University, Washington D.C.), and The National Archives of the United Kingdom (Kew, London) have all given invaluable assistance during the research component of this thesis. In particular, I would like to thank Jim Clancy and Keith Schuyler (Jimmy Carter Presidential Library), Bill McNitt (Gerald Ford Presidential Library), and Steven Twigge (The National Archives of the United Kingdom). There are also numerous groups representing the wider academic community who must be mentioned, including all the undergraduate students whom I have had the pleasure of teaching on the University of Edinburgh’s American History 2 course, the attendees of the American History Workshop and Centre for the Study of Modern Conflict Seminar Series, all the participants in the annual Historians of the Twentieth Century United States (HOTCUS) conferences, and the attendees at the annual Scottish Association for the Study of America (SASA) conferences. No endeavour such as this would be possible without the support of family and friends. With that in mind, I must thank my father John Craig, my mother Irene Craig, my sister Lesley Craig, and my friends from all around the world, including—but most certainly not limited to—Paul Bourne, Scott Dorward, Cam Eeles, Leanne Fulton, Neil Gow, Jonny Hodgson, Gregor Hutton, Andrew Kenrick, Lucy McCraw, Nick Radburn, Robert Robertson, Doug Whitely, and many others too numerous to mention. Finally, there are two people without whom this thesis would have been impossible to complete. The first of these is my grandmother, Mary MacMillan, who sadly died only a short time before this thesis was submitted. The second is my wife, Jaqueline Booth. Above all others, she has been the source of strength, support, and love. ! vii! Acronyms Used in the Text ABM: Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty (1972) ACDA: US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency ACDD: UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office Arms Control and Disarmament Department AEC: US Atomic Energy Commission BNFL: British Nuclear Fuels Limited CIA: US Central Intelligence Agency CENTO: Central Treaty Organisation CIEC: Conference on International Economic Cooperation CND: Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament DoE: UK Department of Energy DoI: UK Department of Industry DoT: UK Department of Trade ECGD: UK Department of Trade Export Credits Guarantee Department EEIC: Emerson Electric Industrial Controls Limited ERDA: US Energy Research and Development Agency FCO: UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office FRG: Federal Republic of Germany (‘West Germany’) G7: Group of Seven industrialised nations GAC: US General Advisory Council IAF: Indian Air Force IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency INFCE: International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation project JIC: UK Joint Intelligence Committee JNS: UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office Joint Nuclear Section JNU: UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office Joint Nuclear Unit MoD: UK Ministry of Defence ! viii! MP: UK Member of Parliament NNPA: US Nuclear Non-proliferation Act of 1978 NNWS: Non-nuclear Weapon State NPT: Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (1968/70) NSC: US National Security