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Energy M&A Update: Q1 2020

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Energy M&A Update: Q1 2020 Energy and resources quarterly update Q1 2020 Deloitte Corporate Finance LLC | www.investmentbanking.deloitte.com Energy sector trends In this update Energy trends Impacts of the Saudi Arabia and Russia Wind and solar energy holding strong • oil price war1 through COVID-192 • Economic outlook Industry analysis In early march, Saudi Arabia and Russia failed While certain solar and wind installations • to agree on an emergency plan to address have been delayed by the outbreak, industry • Select M&A transactions the oil supply glut. Following the executives and analysts expect renewables • Appendix disagreement, Saudi Arabia commenced a business to continue to grow in 2020 and hostile price war in an attempt to keep 2021, even as oil, gas, and coal companies market share from Russia. As a result, oil struggle financially. Renewable energy This update will focus on news prices are down more than 40 percent since sources are on track to account for nearly and trends in the following areas: March, prompting strong calls for a 21 percent of US electricity this year, up multinational coalition in oil production cuts. from 18 percent last year, and up from 10 • Coal energy production This action comes amid significant oil percent in 2010. • Renewable energy demand decline due to the COVID-19 worldwide pandemic. • Power and utilities Slowdown of energy demands due to Coal industry continues decline4 Who we are COVID-193 According to the US Energy Information Major bankruptcies continue to plague a Deloitte Corporate Finance LLC is Administration, US natural gas production declining coal industry facing major a leading global middle-market and demand is expected to drop in 2020 and headwinds due to cheap natural gas and 2021 from record highs in 2019 as the increasingly cost-competitive renewable M&A adviser. The firm’s government takes steps to slow the spread energies. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, professionals have extensive of COVID-19, cutting economic activity and Moody’s Investor Services expected coal knowledge within various sectors energy prices. Amid travel restrictions and production to fall 15-20 percent this year. work stoppages, oil consumption is expected Given the intensification of the pandemic, of the energy space. to fall by as much as 30 million barrels a day forecasts are expected to be much more in April 2020. drastic, as major coal miners announce halts to their operations amid the economic Contacts shutdown. Keith Adams Managing Director [email protected] +1 404 631 3455 Eric Andreozzi Managing Director In the news [email protected] +1 704 333 0518 March 6, 2020 – Virginia’s state senate passed the Clean Economy Act by a 22-17 vote, clearing the way for the bill to be signed by Governor Ralph Northam, who issued an executive order for the bill last year. Virginia is now the latest state to pass a law that sets it on a path to 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045, as well as setting targets for massive investments in energy efficiency, energy storage, and in-state solar and wind power. To bolster the economics for this expansion, the law will bring Virginia into the regional greenhouse gas initiative, opening the market for renewables to earn money through the multistate carbon cap-and- trade markets.5 March 8, 2020 – Saudi Arabia launched an oil price war with Russia, facilitating benchmark Brent crude oil futures to dive 30 percent overnight, the steepest drop since the Gulf War in 1991. The price war was triggered by a failure to reach an agreement between Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) over proposed oil production cuts in the midst of falling demand due to the COVID-19 epidemic and associated economic shutdowns. On March 8, Saudi Arabia announced unexpected price discounts of $6 to $8 per barrel to countries worldwide, triggering the freefall. Since march, oil prices are down more than 40 percent.6 Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Energy and resources quarterly update 2 Macroeconomic outlook US gross domestic product US treasury yield curve $25.0 ($ in trillions)1 5.0% (nominal vs. real)2 2.5% $20.0 4.0% 2.0% $15.0 3.0% YoY percent change 1.5% $10.0 2.0% 1.0% Interest rate $ in trillions $5.0 1.0% 0.5% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% Real Yield (%) Nominal Yield (%) US unemployment rate ISM nonmanufacturing index (% unemployed)3 and consumer confidence index4 10.0% 1,600 64.0 145.0 9.0% 1,400 62.0 135.0 8.0% 1,200 Jobless claims (Thousands) 60.0 125.0 7.0% 1,000 58.0 115.0 Consumer confidence 56.0 105.0 6.0% 800 54.0 95.0 5.0% 600 52.0 85.0 % unemployment 4.0% 400 50.0 75.0 ISM Nonmanufacturing 48.0 65.0 3.0% 200 ISM Non-Manufacturing Consumer Confidence Initial Jobless Claims Unemployment Rate (%) Energy sector outlook Brent, WTI, and natural gas prices US energy production by source6 (2014–2019 YTD)5 120.0 100.0 $90 $6 11.6 11.6 $80 11.3 8.5 $5 80.0 10.4 8.4 $70 8.4 8.4 25.4 22.9 $60 $4 60.0 18.5 19.5 $50 $3 Btu Quadrillion 40.0 $40 37.4 41.2 32.2 33.3 $30 $2 20.0 $20 $1 14.7 15.6 15.4 14.3 $10 0.0 $0 $0 Dollars per MMBtu (natural gas) Dollarsbarrel per (Brent, WTI) Brent WTI Coal Natural gas Crude oil Nuclear Renewable Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Energy and resources quarterly update 3 Energy sector breakdown and trading statistics1 Past 12 months NTM Median Median Median Number of % of Median LTM EV/ EV/ EV/ Sector revenue EBITDA enterprise companies 52-week high EBITDA revenue EBITDA EBITDA CAGR (3-yr) margin value ($ in millions) Oil and gas, general (13) 13 48.7 % 10.6 % $3,106.0 13.9 % $19,542.0 1.2x 6.4x 8.0x Power and utilities (18) 18 79.8 1.9 3,682.0 33.1 4.6 12.4 11.5 43,638.1 Renewable energy (13) 13 63.9 6.7 345.3 20.4 2,738.6 3.5 8.7 11.2 Nuclear (3) 3 69.6 6.9 527.5 19.9 5,535.1 1.9 9.5 8.8 Energy index 47 67.4 % 4.1 % $1,874.0 29.6 % $22,154.3 2.9x 11.1x 10.7x Public comparable three-year stock market performance2 S&P 500 index 9.39% NASDAQ composite index 30.25% Energy index* (50.90%) 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% (20.0%) (40.0%) (60.0%) (80.0%) S&P 500 index NASDAQ composite index Energy index *Energy index companies listed on page 5 in the Appendix. Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Energy and resources quarterly update 4 Recent energy M&A transactions1 Enterprise EV/ Close date Target and acquiror Target business description Value (EV) EBITDA Lilis Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas Lilis Energy, Inc. company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, Pending 373.8 20.5X Värde Partners, Inc. development, and production of conventional and unconventional oil and natural gas properties. Engages in the exploration, development, and production Pending Delek Drilling - Limited Partnership 3,434.0 12.9 of petroleum, natural gas, and condensate in Israel and Globe Invest Limited Cyprus. Sprague Resources LP Engages in the purchase, storage, distribution, and sale of Pending 1,139.4 8.7 Sprague Resources Holdings LLC refined petroleum products and natural gas. Pending EQM Midstream Partners, LP Owns, operates, acquires, and develops midstream assets 12,076.0 7.9 Equitrans Midstream Corporation in the Appalachian Basin. Provides onshore high specification well service rigs, Ranger Energy Services, Inc. Pending wireline completion services, and complementary services 192.3 3.5 T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. to exploration and production companies. Universal Coal Plc, a coal mining company, engages in acquisition, exploration, development, and 3/26/2020 Universal Coal Plc 251.0 4.0 commercialization of coal projects in the Republic of TerraCom Limited South Africa. Granite Oil Corp. Engages in the exploration for, exploitation, development, 3/6/2020 International Petroleum 78.3 4.0 and production of oil and natural gas in Canada. Corporation Annual energy M&A transaction volume2 2,500 2,287 2,016 2,000 1,925 1,707 1,605 1,500 1,293 1,394 1,210 1,025 1,060 1,000 Number of deals 500 99 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD Undisclosed <$100M $100-$250M $250-$500M $500-$1B >$1B Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Energy and resources quarterly update 5 Appendix Public comparable analysis1 Past 12months Revenue Enterprise % of 52 LTM CAGR LTM EBITDA value EV/ EV/ Company (ticker) week high revenue (3-yr) EBITDA margin (EV) (1) Revenue EBITDA ($ in millions) Oil and gas, general (13) Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) 66.9 % $139,865.0 10.6 % $29,024.0 20.8 % $184,629.2 1.3 x 6.4 x ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) 50.9 33,346.0 12.0 13,746.0 41.2 42,605.3 1.3 3.1 Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN) 27.4 5,969.0 (3.3) 1,713.0 28.7 6,940.3 1.2 4.1 Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE:DO) 12.7 934.9 (15.1) 74.3 8.0 2,194.1 2.3 29.5 DCP Midstream, LP (NYSE:DCP) 18.8 7,638.0 3.4 592.0 7.8 8,124.4 1.1 13.7 Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) 51.2 255,583.0 8.4 30,529.0 11.9 237,934.5 0.9 7.8 Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) 24.3 22,408.0 12.1 3,106.0 13.9 16,103.8 0.7 5.2 Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) 53.9 6,311.0 10.6 2,715.0 43.0 19,542.0 3.1 7.2 Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) 36.4 124,112.0 25.0 9,707.0 7.8 55,667.5 0.4 5.7 Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) 51.3 107,293.0 14.8 4,610.0 4.3 40,622.3 0.4 8.8 Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE:SWN) 51.8 3,038.0 7.6 1,044.0 34.4 3,701.2 1.2 3.5 Transocean Ltd.
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