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The Efficiency Impact of Open Access Competition in Rail Markets The Case of Domestic Passenger Services in Europe Discussion07 Paper 2016 • 07 Lorenzo Casullo International Transport Forum, Paris, France The efficiency impact of open access competition in rail markets The case of domestic passenger services in Europe Discussion Paper No. 2016-07 Lorenzo CASULLO International Transport Forum Paris, France March 2016 The International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 57 member countries. It acts as a think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD. The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples’ lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy. The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and pre- negotiation of policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the world’s largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy. The Members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of), Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States. International Transport Forum 2 rue André Pascal F-75775 Paris Cedex 16 [email protected] www.itf-oecd.org ITF Discussion Papers The ITF Discussion Paper series makes economic research, commissioned or carried out in-house at ITF, available to researchers and practitioners. They describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the ITF works. Any findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or the OECD. Neither the OECD, ITF nor the authors guarantee the accuracy of any data or other information contained in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Comments on Discussion Papers are welcome. Lorenzo Casullo – The efficiency impact of open access competition in rail markets Table of contents Competition in European rail markets ...................................................................................... 5 The contestability of rail markets .............................................................................................. 5 Research question and hypotheses ............................................................................................. 5 Rail reforms at the EU and national level .................................................................................. 6 Open access competition in domestic passenger markets .......................................................... 9 The efficiency impact of open access competition .................................................................. 11 The emerging evidence on competition impacts...................................................................... 11 The measurement of efficiency impacts .................................................................................. 13 Selecting the appropriate metric .............................................................................................. 13 Data availability and selection ................................................................................................. 14 Econometric technique ............................................................................................................ 14 Summary of Results .................................................................................................................. 17 Descriptive statistics ................................................................................................................ 17 Difference in difference (DID) estimator................................................................................. 19 Discussion ................................................................................................................................... 21 Interpretation of results ............................................................................................................ 21 Contribution to the existing literature ...................................................................................... 22 Limitations and potential further research ............................................................................... 22 A difficult, yet necessary assessment ....................................................................................... 24 Conclusions and way forward .................................................................................................. 25 Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 26 Appendix 1 – Selection of the control group for the DID model............................................. 26 Appendix 2 – DID regression results ....................................................................................... 28 Bibliography............................................................................................................................... 29 ITF Discussion Paper 2016-07 — © OECD/ITF 2016 3 Lorenzo Casullo – The efficiency impact of open access competition in rail markets Abstract On-track competition in passenger services has traditionally been limited in European railways, with private operators offering marginal services in selected corridors in the UK, Sweden and Germany only. In recent years, a larger scale and more stable wave of open access market entry has occurred in Austria, the Czech Republic and Italy, where open access operators have gained market shares of 20-30% in long-distance corridors. Economic theory suggests that competition can result in productive efficiencies, although theories of competition are potentially outweighed by market characteristics which make monopoly a more efficient market structure when applied to the rail sector. The contestability of rail markets is further hampered by the presence of several barriers to entry as well as expansion. The literature on the efficiency effect of rail policy changes is vast, but the focus to date has been on industry structure and competitive tendering, with non-conclusive results highlighting the importance of tailoring rail policies to the specific characteristics of each network. Studies have not yet attempted to measure the industry efficiency impact of passenger open access operations, neither specifically nor systematically – which is the goal of this paper. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, we find that on-track competition has not, to date, led to major efficiency improvements across the rail systems affected – despite claims that new entrants have lower unit costs compared to incumbents. In the early days of market opening when guarantees of non-discriminatory access have not yet been fully established, on-track competition may be resulting in higher costs than in countries with monopoly passenger services. These results are based on a short timeframe and will need to be tested over a longer period, recognising that competition is a process with no instantaneous effects. An early assessment of market opening policies is crucial to inform future regulatory decisions, at a time of budgetary constraints, forthcoming European reforms under the Fourth Railway Package and growing interest in market entry by new operators. 4 ITF Discussion Paper 2016-07 — © OECD/ITF 2016 Lorenzo Casullo – The efficiency impact of open access competition in rail markets Competition in European rail markets The contestability of rail markets Railways fulfil multiple societal and economic objectives, including the provision of connectivity between key economic centres, regions and countries, and offer a relatively fast and reliable alternative to road and air modes. But railways are expensive to build, maintain and operate, leaving policy-makers with the conundrum on how best to structure and regulate them. From a regulatory point of view, the railway sector should be treated as a multi-product natural monopoly with different levels of production and a variety of outputs. The first level of production is rail infrastructure, whereby the network provides outputs such
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