IC35, Natual Disasters

INTERNATIONAL NEWSLETTER OF COASTAL MANAGEMENT Coastal Resources Center, University of Rhode Island Narragansett, Rhode Island USA • #35 • Winter 2000 Complacency or Action:Which Way to Deal with Natural Hazards? FOCUS ON: By Pamela Rubinoff and be tamed, causes natural hazards community is immune to that one NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL Noëlle F. Lewis worldwide affecting both rich and event that causes huge loss of life and property, months and even atural events become natural poor. years of disruption, and millions to disasters when peoples’ lives, As the earth’s population grows, N billions of dollars spent to re-build properties and ways of life are reaching 6 billion in 1999, and the or re-locate entire villages, towns threatened.The occurrence of a population density grows in areas of frequent hazards, even a small and cities. Highlights natural disaster cannot be Though not a new concept, considered an individual event; natural hazard event can be considered a crisis. Nevertheless, recent emphasis has been placed on 2 natural disasters are a civilization as a whole has not This issue of InterCoast looks at Hurricane conglomeration of many different heeded nature’s warning and various tools of hazard mitigation Forecasting earth processes, sometimes enhanced by human influences, 11 each having its own cause and Hazard Mitigation 1. Sustained action to reduce risk to property, human life, El Niño Causes disastrous effect. Natural hazards natural resources and economic health of our communities Erosion affect man in the form of 2. Actions that have long-term impacts and benefits earthquakes, hurricanes, typhoons, 13 severe storms, volcanoes, moved from these vulnerable areas and disaster management including Special Section: avalanches and more. Man feels the to safer grounds. Instead, we have prediction, planning and Electronic effects as loss of life and property tried to defy Mother Nature, to management, infrastructure Resources manifested in erosion, flooding, development, partnerships and drought, mud slides, avalanches, withstand her forces. Our attempts include building huge public education. Hazard 18 coastal defenses, mitigation can not be considered a Project Impact designing better luxury—it is an essential buildings to survive component of community planning 21 her wrath, or buying and economic development. Managed insurance to Mitigation strategies should be Retreat subsidize our losses. incorporated into permitting In some regions the decisions, infrastructure design, chosen solution is and long-term economic evacuation, where development schemes.The “menu” extensive efforts are presented here offers decision- made to save makers a selection of pre-disaster Theme proactive initiatives and post- Eye of a Hurricane peoples’ lives while Advisor: disaster recovery actions from etc. Civilization has explained accepting that property can be which to build a comprehensive natural disasters in many ways: reclaimed and rebuilt. In other Pamela strategy. punishment by the gods, voices of regions, those that do not have the Rubinoff Prediction is a critical tool for demons, or loss of luck.Today, resources for such alternatives, understanding hazards and risks. communities have accepted that there is only hope for survival. No (continued page 35) Mother Nature, a force that cannot Improving Hurricane Forecasting INTERNATIONAL NEWSLETTER OF COASTAL MANAGEMENT By Isaac Ginis model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ropical cyclones are among the Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Editor: Stephen B. Olsen most dangerous of our natural T Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL).This Managing hazards. Each year communities model predicted the path of a Editor: Noëlle F. Lewis suffer devastation, destruction and hurricane with approximately 20 Designer: Matt Castigliego often-severe casualties from percent more accuracy than its tropical cyclones.Today, the coastal predecessor. In addition to InterCoast is an United States is occupied by predicting where the hurricane international newsletter of millions of people who live and would go, the model predicts coastal management, published vacation along the coast.This where the heaviest rain would be three times each year by the makes the United States more located, the wind and air pressure Coastal Resources vulnerable now, than ever before, patterns and other parameters. Management Project of the to the effects of tropical cyclones While hurricane track prediction University of Rhode Island's (hurricanes). has been improved significantly, Coastal Resources Center Improvements in forecasts, there is little new skill in (CRC) and the U.S. Agency warnings, communications and forecasting of storm-intensity for International Development public awareness have greatly change.This shortcoming greatly (USAID). Funding to publish reduced the loss of life associated impairs forecasters’ ability to InterCoast is provided by with hurricanes. Nevertheless, provide timely hurricane warnings. USAID's Global Environment storm-related damage has increased Given the expense and inconve- Center, and the National significantly as coastal population nience of hurricane evacuations and Institute for Coastal and growth in the United States emergency preparations, the public Marine Mangement,The outpaces the rate of improvement benefits greatly if unnecessary Netherlands. in official hurricane track hurricane warnings can be avoided. InterCoast’s objective is to predictions. In addition, hurricane Furthermore, residents are likely facilitate information exchange preparation costs have increased to take hurricane warnings more on coastal management. eight-fold in the past nine years seriously if the intensity forecasts Readers are invited to contact from US$50 million per storm in are shown to be more reliable.The Noëlle F. Lewis, managing 1989 to an estimated US$300 Federal Emergency Management editor, with contributions, million per storm in 1998, or Agency requires coastal questions and comments on about US$640,000 per mile of communities with limited escape InterCoast. coastline warned. routes to have evacuated before the In recent years, new research InterCoast Network arrival of gale-force winds, tools have contributed to improved Noëlle F. Lewis typically 24-48 hours before hurricane prediction. But the most Coastal Resources Center landfall. Errors in wind, storm important advances have been University of Rhode Island surge and rainfall sometime made in developing new hurricane Narragansett, RI 02882 prevent accurately defining the forecast models. Computer USA most vulnerable regions to modeling is the basis for all United Tel: 401-874-6870 expedite preparations well in Fax: 401-789-4670 States National Weather Service ASSESSMENT MANAGEMENT RECOVERY ASSESSMENT MANAGEMENT advance of the projected landfall. forecasts, including hurricane E-mail: [email protected] With potential damage from a predictions. New computer models We invite others to reprint single storm exceeding US$25 are continually being developed to PREDICTION POLICY PLANNING OUTREACH articles found in InterCoast. billion (e.g., Hurricane Andrew in improve weather predictions for all 1992), reliable short-term types of weather events. preparations, while expensive to Improving the undertake, can result in large net Forecast Model savings. COASTAL RESOURCES CENTER In the 1995 hurricane season, One potentially significant University of Rhode Island the National Weather Service constrain on the GFDL hurricane- (NWS) began using a new forecast prediction model is lack of 2 InterCoast Network • Winter 2000 knowledge about air-sea inter- Hurricane Earl (6), Hurricane hurricane reaching land within 24 actions. Physical oceanographers at Georges (42), Hurricane Ivan (3), hours of landfall.This will further the University of Rhode Island, Hurricane Jeanne (10) and improve predicting hurricane Graduate School of Oceanography, Hurricane Mitch (25).The new landfall. Rhode Island, USA, have con- model predicted certain This hurricane-ocean model ducted studies of the effects of air- parameters significantly better than being developed by physical PREDICTION sea interaction on hurricane the operational GFDL model. oceanographers at the University behavior. Coupling the GFDL Some of the best forecasts made of Rhode Island is about more than hurricane model with an ocean by the coupled model were for just science and technology.This model can identify positive and Hurricane Bonnie and Danielle. translates directly into saving lives, negative feedback mechanisms that On August 23, 1998, Hurricane property and millions of dollars in exist in the hurricane-ocean system Bonnie was moving toward the evacuation costs.This new model is and are important for accurate U.S. East Coast.The GFDL model expected to more accurately prediction.To account for air-sea forecasts largely over-predicted forecast where a hurricane will interaction in hurricanes, a new storm intensity. However, the strike land, thus allowing better coupled hurricane-ocean pre- intensity prediction by the coupled predictions of coastal areas needing diction model (coupled model) has model was more accurate than the evacuation. been developed. GFDL prediction. Similar results For further information contact: Hurricane Opal in October were found for Hurricane Danielle. Isaac Ginis, Graduate School of 1995 offers a good example of the The coupled model is being Oceanography, University of improvements in the hurricane tested at the National Centers for Rhode Island, Box 28, 215 South

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