Modelling Impact of Change in Irrigated Land on Rivers Discharge and Recharge of Lake Urumieh

Ali Hesamy JAN 2003

Modelling impact of change in irrigated land on rivers discharge and recharge of lake Urumieh

Ali Hesamy ITC first supervisor Dr. J. de Leeuw ITC second supervisor Prof. Dr. A. M. J. Meijerink Iranian first supervisor Dr. J. Ghouddossi Iranian second supervisor Dr. Soukoty

Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Rangeland and Agricul- tural Management.

Degree Assessment Board

Dr. J. de Leeuw (Chairman – Supervisor) RAM Department, ITC Prof. Dr. P. Driessen (External Examiner) Free University, Amsterdam Dr. H. Huizing (2nd supervisor) RAM Department, ITC Dr. J. Ghouddossi (member) SCWMRC –Iran

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION ENSCHEDE, THE NETHERLANDS

II Disclaimer

This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation. All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institute.

III MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

In the name of God ABSTRACT

In this study the impact of irrigation on rivers discharge and recharge of Urumieh lake was investigated. Remote sensing and geographic information systems were used to improve the hydrological knowledge of the study area.

The Urumieh lake catchment is located in the northwest part of Iran, which has a moderate cold cli- mate. It has an area of 47200 km2. There are more than 30 rivers flowing in the region, feeding the Urumieh lake. Mean annual precipitation of the catchment equals 398 mm, while evaporation equals about 1150 mm; in addition rivers contributed on average 6-km3 water annually in to the lake. The Miandoab alluvial plain (field area) southeast of lake Urumieh covers an area of 1025 km2, with a general topographic gradient from the south and southeast towards lake Urumieh. It has an average annual rainfall over 350 mm, decreasing gradually to 250 mm toward the Lake.

There were no significant variations in total amount of precipitation observed from the 14-rainfall station in the Simineh and Zarrineh rivers basin in south part of the lake.

Rivers discharge at four gauges was analysed. The result showed a significant decline in one out of four gauges. Also all four gauges revealed a negative sign for the regression.

Fluctuation of ground water table was studied for years between 1989 and 2000. The result revealed a 3.9-meter decline in ground water table. It was caused 0.179-km3 volume of water.

Land use change was analysed using multiple date landsat thematic imagery for 1989 and 2000. There was 18417-hectare increase in total irrigated area during years between 1989 and 2000. Total amount of water demand for irrigation was calculated for the study area. There were 0.226-km3 increases in water demand for irrigation during years of observation.

Relation between observed and predicted rivers discharge was investigated. The result revealed that predicted rivers discharge was always considerably lower than the observed discharge.

Regression analysis on effects of observed rivers discharge and lake level on predicted rivers discharge revealed that the effects of observed discharge and lake level on predicted discharge are highly significant. And the regression accounted for 48.3 % in predicted rivers discharge.

Relation between observed and predicted rivers discharge during the years of observation showed that in case of rise in lake level the difference between predicted rivers discharge and observed rivers discharge was reduced.

UUUV MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Thanks to God Acknowledgment

The completion of this thesis may not have been possible without the support, contribution and inspirations from the following persons: Dr. J. Ghouddossi my Iranian supervisor for his guidance and direction; Dr. J. de Leeuw for his patience, direction and indefatigable guidance during entire period of my study in ITC as my first supervisor; Prof. Dr. A. M. J. Meijerink as my second supervisor at ITC for his guidance, not forgetting his support during fieldwork; Dr. H. Huizing for his support during fieldwork; Dr. A.G. Toxopeus for his support during fieldwork; Dr. Soukoty for his support during fieldwork; I wish also to thank all lecturers, members of the support staff Lastly I would like to remember my family, particularly to thank my wife for taking up all the responsibilities during my absence from home, my daughter for their patience and understanding, and my mother for her prayers.

UUUVI MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Table of content 1. INTRUDUCTION...... 1 1.1. Literature review ...... 1 1.2. Problem definition...... 2 1.3. Objective of study ...... 2 1.4. Research questions ...... 2 2. Material and method...... 2 2.1. Field area ...... 4 2.2. Soil type...... 5 2.3. Mapping irrigated area ...... 6 2.3.1. TM image analysis ...... 6 2.3.2. Georectification...... 7 2.4. Rainfall ...... 7 2.5. Discharge...... 9 2.6. Ground water...... 11 2.7. Crop calendar ...... 12 2.7.1. Winter crops ...... 13 2.7.2. Summer crops...... 13 2.7.3. Alfa-Alfa ...... 14 2.7.4. Orchards ...... 14 2.7.5. Rainfed crops...... 14 2.8. Potential irrigated water requirement ...... 14 2.9. Total irrigation water requirement...... 15 2.10. Total amount of water feeding the lake...... 16 2.11. Lake level prediction model ...... 17 3. Result...... 21 3.1. Hydrology...... 21 3.1.1. Rainfall ...... 21 3.1.2. River discharge...... 23 3.1.3. Ground water...... 24 3.2. Irrigated area...... 26 3.3. Map classes...... 28 3.3.1. Alfa-Alfa ...... 28 3.3.2. Orchards ...... 28 3.3.3. Summer crops...... 29 3.3.4. Winter crops ...... 29 3.3.5. Rainfed ...... 29 3.3.6. Water ...... 29 3.4. Irrigation and water demand...... 30 3.5. Lake level ...... 32 4. Discussion ...... 36

LIST OF FIGURES

UUUVII MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Figure Title 1.1 Situation of Urumieh lake catchment…………………………………………………… 2.1 One of the main branches of the drainage canal network in the study area…………….. 2.2 Example of a main branch of the irrigation canal network……………………………… 2.3 Soil map of the study area………………………………………………………………. 2.4 Boundary of the irrigated area in 1989 and 2000………………………………………... 2.5 Location of rain and discharge gauge stations in the catchment………………………… 2.6 Urumieh lake catchment………………………………………………………………... 2.7 The dry riverbed of Simineh River in July 2002…………………………………………. 2.8 The Discharge gauge station in Simineh River near the village of Dashband…………… 2. 9 Ground water, a main source for irrigation in the study area……………………………. 2.10 Typical crop calendar in Zarrineh and Simineh river basin……………………………… 2.11 Traditional surface irrigation in the study area………………………………………….. 2.12 Conceptual models for water diversions in Urumieh Lake area………………………… 3.1 Interpolated maps of Simineh and Zarrineh river basin…………………………………. 3.2 Average annual rainfall in the Simineh and the Zarrineh river Catchment………………. 3.3 Average annual discharges at of the Simineh and the Zarrineh rivers, Iran…………….. 3.4 Monthly fluctuations of the ground water level in year 1989 and 2000………………….. 3.5 Ground water depth in 1989 and 2000…………………………………………………... 3.6 Chang in ground water depth between1989 and 2000…………………………………... 3.7 Feature space for combination of band4 and 3 and pc1 with ndvi……………………… 3.8 Classified TM image 2000……………………………………………………………… 3.9 Total irrigated area in the region in June 1986 and August 2000………………………... 3.10 Reference crops evapotranspiration, Crops water requirement and Alfa-Alfa, wheat and sugar beet………………………………………………………………………………. 3.11 Average monthly level of lake Urumieh between 1969 and 2001……………………….. 3.12 Digital elevation model (DEM) with delineation of the Urumieh Lake………………….. 3.13 Area flooded by lake Urumieh during the highest level of the lake in 1995……………... 3.14 Relation between lake level and lake volume…………………………………………… 3.15 Relation between observed and predicted rivers discharge……………………………... 3.17 Relation between observed and predicted rivers discharge. …………………………….

UUUVIII MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

LIST OF TABLES

Table Title

2.1 Characteristics of the major Basins in Iran during the water year 1988-89………………... 3.1 Calculated weight for each rain gauges and the area of polygons…………………………. 3.2 Regression statistics for the relation between average rainfall in the catchment and years of observation for Simineh and Zarrineh River………………………………….. 3.3 Relation between river discharge and years of observation measured at four gauges along Simineh and Zarrineh River………………………………………………………………... 3.4 Monthly depth (m) of the ground water table in 1989 and 2000……………………………. 3.5 Change in volume of water (km3) stored in the subsoil, due to the decrease of ground water level between 1989-2000……………………………………………………………. 3.6 Confusion matrix for crop type classification based on TM image of 2000………………… 3.7 Area (ha) covered by five crop types according to the map displayed…………………….. 3.8 Net irrigation water requirements for crops grown in the region. Calculations were using Cropwat 3.9 Total water requirements for different crops, grown in the study area in 1989…………….. 3.10 Total water requirements for different crops, grown in the study area in 2000…………….. 3.11 Rivers discharge as observed at gauges in 15 rivers and predicted from a water balance model for lake Urumieh 3.12 Regression statistic for the relation between observed rivers discharge and lake level on predicted rivers discharge best fitting regression model predicting the predicted lake level. 4.1 Predicted decrease in river discharge in case of construction of the scheduled dams……...

UUUIX MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

1. Introduction

1.1. Literature review

There are many examples of lakes that reduced because of increase water use in their catchment. In 1960, the Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland sea in the world. Today, the lake has shrunk, leaving it’s saline shores exposed to the wind. An estimated 200,000 tons of salt and sand are being carried away by wind and discharged within a radius of 300 km every day. In 1991 a research was done on restricting of irrigated agriculture in Aral basin. The author recognizes the causes of ecological crisis in the basin of the Aral Sea in the disturbance of the functioning of the natural system due to the irra- tional implementation of irrigation agriculture. This has caused water and salts from a small geological cycle to pass in to a large geological cycle (Reshetkina. 1991). The result of study in lake prespa, as European natural monument endangered by irrigation and eutro- phication was indicated at the occasion of an excursion to lake prespa in September 1994, an absence of oxygen in the hypolimnion between 17 m and maximum lake depth 48 m was observed for the first time since stankovic (1926) record (loffier. 1998). A research has done on water balance of the Fayoun irrigated lands to investigate the management of the irrigation system and the efficiency of irrigation water use. The two water balances were strongly interrelated. The drainage flow to the lake and the water level of the lake were in delicate balance. Management of the Fayoun water balance assumed control over irrigation water flows, but this control had technical and organizational limitations. Also discussed in the influence of irrigation practices in the Fayoun on the water balance. Notwithstanding a high overall efficiency, irrigation efficiency during the winter was low. The reasons for that were given together with the constraints against improv- ing system management from Authors (Wolters. et al. 1989). The geomorphology of three major rivers deltas in Albania (shkumbini, semani and vjose) was studied using landsat multi-spectral imagery. Paleohydrological studies using meander geometric properties concluded that all rivers decreased their discharge in the first half of the 20th century due to land reclamation and creation of irrigation network (1666). The comparison between Paleohydrological as- sessments and recent measurements of gauging station confirmed that simple formulate overestimating mean water discharge (Ciavola et al. 1999). The result of study on management of Aries River water for irrigation to mitigate soil salinisation on a coastal wetland indicated that most irrigation water losses are attributed to the fact that the constant water delivery rate dose not responded to water demand for the irrigation networks. To cope with this problem a water resources management system based on the assessment of water requirements, was developed. The system can schedule water supply to the irrigation networks, thus saving enough water to maintain discharge at the delta and to keep water salinity within to acceptable levels (Zalidis. 1998). A study was done on effect of irrigation on reservoir and basin management in drought in Japan. The results of analysis made clear that irrigation system has have built up effective re-use systems and that return flow forms the greater part of the river discharge. It was also noted that focusing on the critical

UUU1 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

point deciding the water supply from the reservoir and maintaining the adequate discharge of that point allows efficient utilization of water resources in drought period (Watanabe et al. 1993). Increasing competition for water in China, due to industrialization of its economy and urbanization of its population, has lead to the introduction of water saving agricultural practices in an attempt to increase agricultural water use efficiency (Ag WUE). The study was conducted to assess whether changes in management practices have increased regional Ag WUE for a focus area covering 20 % of the 300 000 km2 North China plain. The result showed that there has been recent improvement in AgWUE and for some counties in wet years; there may be an opportunity to plant larger areas of crops to increase county level Ag WUG (Vicar et al. 2002)

1.2. Problem definition

Hydrological model have been used to understand those problems and predict impact of changing water use on the lake ecosystem. A problem frequently encountered however, is that it remain uncertain how much land is under irrigation and how much water is used in those irrigation schemes. Remote sensing has successfully been applied to quantify the area under irrigation. Land use changes were analysed using multiple date Landsat thematic images. Using satellite images a vegetation index (Normalized Differences Vegetation Index) was defined, which for TM images were determined for reflection coefficient in two bands (band 3 and band 4, red and near infrared) as NDVI= (r4- r3)/(r4+r3). NDVI values were used in determination of the actual irrigated area covered by each crop type in the study area. Use of Remote Sensing techniques have been developed in all over the world during the recent past in estimation of expansion and prediction of potential crop yield for specific crops distributed in large areas. This method is very effective over traditional method as far as cost of operation and the timeliness is concerned.

1.3. Objective of study

The objective of this study was to quantify water utilization in the southern catchment feeding the lake and to model the impact of this on the level of the lake. More specifically we intend to address the following questions:

1.4. Research questions

• What has been the rate of change in irrigated area around the lake? • What has been and still is being the impact of increased irrigated area on river discharge? • What will be the impact of the newly scheduled dams on river discharge and its effect on Uru- mieh lake level? • What would be an optimal utilization of river water in regard to agricultural production and maintenance of the lake Urumieh?

Lake Urumieh (6000 km2) is one of the largest lakes in the world. The lake is estimated to be 7000 years old. It is believed that the rivers drained in to the Caspian before. The water level of the lake ranges between 1275.5to 1278.5 meters above sea level.

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Fluctuations in the lake level are cased by variation of rainfall in to the lake, evaporation from the lake and discharge of water by the river feeding the lake. Mean annual precipitation of the catchment equals 398 mm, while evaporation equals about 1150 mm; in addition rivers contributed on average 6-km3 water annually in to the lake. An increasing amount of water is, diverted from these rivers to serve other purposes such as irrigation and drinking water. This reduces the inflow of water into the lake. It is obvious that in order to survival of the lake discharge of the rivers should provide the amount of cost by evaporation.

Figure1.1 Situation of Urumieh lake catchment

Urumieh Lake with the catchment of 47200 km2 is located in northwest part of Iran.

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2. Material and method

2.1. Field area

The Miandoab alluvial plain southeast of lake Urumieh covers an area of 1025 km2. It has a general topographic gradient from the south and southeast towards lake Urumieh. It has an average annual rainfall over 350 mm, decreasing gradually to 250 mm toward the Lake. Two rivers flow through the region. These are the Zarrineh-Rud (Rud means river) and the Simineh- Rud, with respectively average annual flow 1.53 Km3 and 0.51 Km3 during the years between 1979- 1999. During 1967-71 a reservoir was constructed on the Zarrineh-Rud with an effective capacity of 0.48 Km3. Also diversion dam was constructed at Nowrouzlu and an irrigation and drainage network was gradually developed. One of the main branches of the drainage canal network in the study area is presented in figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1 One of the main branches of the drainage canal network in the study area

According to Iranian National Committee on Large Dams (1977), the irrigated area of the plain has been 85000 ha with 24 km of main irrigation canals, 216 km of secondary canals and 124 km of drains. An example of a main branch of the irrigation canal network is presented in figure 2.2.

UUU4 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Figure 2.2 Example of a main branch of the irrigation canal network

Irrigation plays a vital role in the agricultural production in the study area. The irrigation project developed through whole of the study area under Zarrineh rivers water and covers an area of about 50000 ha, of which some 40000 ha are cultivated annually. Wheat, barley and sugar beets are the major annual crops grown in the study area. Water and land management, as well as agricultural practices, are based on traditional methods, which have a low efficiency and are damaging the cultivated lands, developing salinity and water logging.

2.2. Soil type

. There are four series of soil type in the study area: • Flood plains nearly level with moderate salinity and many flood beds with slope 0.5-1 %, deep soils, heavy texture and severe salinity (Seri 7). • Alluvial plains of Zarrineh River. Nearly level, with slope 1-2 %, deep soils and heavy texture, in some parts including gravels (Seri 5.3). • Alluvial plains of Zarrineh River nearly level, with somewhat poorly drained, slope 0.5-1 %, deep to very deep soils, heavy to very heavy texture (Seri 5.4). • Low lands and saline soils, with very severe salinity shore zone including marshlands with slope o-0.5 % (Seri 6). A soil map of study area is presented in figure 2.3.

UUU5 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Figure 2.3 presents the soil map of the study area

The ground water resources of Iran occur mainly in alluvial and karstic limestone aquifers (Ghassemi et al. 1995).

2.3. Mapping irrigated area

2.3.1. TM image analysis

The Landsat thematic mapper(TM) image is a multi-spectral image consisting of 7 bands in visible and infrared portion of the spectrum electromagnetic waves. The ground spatial resolution of images is 30 m for the bands in the visible and near- middle infrared and 60 m for band 6 in the thermal infrared. Land use change was analysed using multiple date landsat thematic imagery. There were two images available, one for 30 Jun 1989 and another was taken at 31 Aug 2000 for study area that is located in southeast part of the Urumieh lake in between two Simineh and Zarrineh rivers. The boundary of the study area and also city and villages are extracted from all bands of the landsat images. The boundary of the study area for both images is presented by figure 2.4.

Figure 2.4 Boundary of the irrigated area in 1989 (left) and 2000 (right)

UUU6 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

2.3.2. Georectification

Two seven-bands landsat images (1989, 2000) were georectified using with a number of GPS (15 meters error), which provided waypoints at crossroads and bridges. The overall geometric accuracy of image registration was about 30 meters (one pixel). The thermal band six with 60 meters pixel was resampled to 30 meters pixel size and treated in the same way as the other bands. NDVI maps were prepared using (band4-band3)/(band4+band3) formula and then (ndvi+1)*127 formula applied for ad- justing values in the range of 0-255. Then for having it in the maplist the domain of the NDVI map were changed to image. Principle component transformation has been calculated. The program calculated principal component of bands using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The transformed data has been displayed in grey level and pc1 (principle component 1) considered to be the best data for analysis. Pc1 and also pc2 and pc3 were selected to put them in the maplist and use of them for classification of images (Teshome. 1994). Maplists including bands1-6, PC+ NDVI and bands 1-6+ PC+ NDVI were prepared for having classification done. Fieldwork was conducted in July and August 2002. Farmers were interviewed to determine the situation of the fields in August 2000. Taking a single point in the middle of the fields with the GPS in- strument identified fields and crop data were compiled for 103 fields. Supervised classification is an interactive process where pixel values are identified with the crop type found in the pixels corresponding to the fieldwork area. Many layers rasterized information were used apart from the bands, such as NDVI and principal components as pc1, pc2 and pc3 and also the infrared thermal band six of the landsat images. Three types of classifications were done having accurate estimation of the irrigated area.

• Classification based on using bands 1-6 • Classification using principal component analysis and NDVI • Classification based on bands 1-6, pc1, pc2, pc3and NDVI

To get an idea of the overall accuracy of the classification, a test set, which contained additional ground truth data, which have not been used to train the classifier were used. By crossing the test set with the classified image and creation of a so-called confusion matrix the overall accuracy of classification were estimated. Based on obtained accuracy and also field survey the result of principal component analyses used for calculation of the area covered by each crop. The final classifications were made with the maximum likelihood algorithm. The confusion matrix for crop type classification based on TM image of 2000 is presented in table 3.6. The area covered by each crop type resulting after classification processing is presented in table 3.7.

2.4. Rainfall

UUU7 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Precipitation is the major factor controlling the hydrology of the region. It is the main input of the earth’s surface and knowledge of rainfall patterns in space and time is essential to an understanding of soil moisture recharge, groundwater recharge and rivers flow. Precipitation in the region is predominantly in the form of rainfall except for snow in the high mountains and elevated areas. Rainfall occurs during early spring, late autumn and winter (Ghassemi et al. 1995). The average annual precipitation ranges from less than 300 mm around the Urumieh lake to more than 650 mm on the elevated area. The average annual precipitation of the Urumieh lake catchment is about 350 mm. The portion of the precipitation that occurs as snow in the Zagros Mountains has a major effect on regulating surface runoff. The water accumulated during the winter in snow fields at high elevations melts and is released during spring and early summer. The average annual potential evaporation of the region is high, ranges from less than 700 mm in the elevated area and over 1200 mm in the plains and around the lake (Ministry of Energy, 1976). For this study it was needed to know the volume of rainfall over a catchment area and also an adequate number of measurements required in order to assess the aearl variation and estimate the total rainfall. In order to calculate mean precipitation per each rivers basin it was decided to use Thiessen polygon method. For this purpose a point map was created using rain gauge stations coordinates, existing in the catchment. 24 years data, from year 1976 for Simineh river basin and 21 years data for Zarrineh river basin from year1979 were available and used for this study. Created point map was interpolated using nearest point method. Study area was cut from the interpolated map separately for both rivers basin. Interpolated maps for both Simineh and Zarrineh river basin are shown in figure 3.1.

Figure 2.5 Location of rainfall stations and discharge gauge stations in the catchment. Circle=rainfall station; cross=gauge station.

The study area is located on the northern of Urumieh lake. It consists of two main perennial rivers basin: Simineh river with the catchment of 3644 km2 and Zarrineh river with aria about 13766 km2. The length of the main branch of Simineh river is 175 km and for Zarrineh river is 275 km.

Rainfall data analysis on long-term average yearly-obtained data for both Simineh and Zarrineh basin was done using Systat soft ware. The results are presented in table 3.1.

UUU8 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

2.5. Discharge

Most of Iran’s rivers flow during winter and spring when precipitation is heaviest. The country’s principal permanent rivers flow from the mountains of the slope facing the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Based on Hydrological conditions, Iran is divided in to six major river basins (Ghassemi et al. 1995). The main characteristics of those basins are summarized in table 2.1.

Table 2.1 Characteristics of the major Basins in Iran during the water year 1988-89

Basin Area (km2) Annual rainfall Volume of rainfall Annual run-off (mm) (109 m3) (109 m3) Caspian sea 177000 490 87.73 16.41 Persian Gulf and 430000 369 158.67 40.50 Gulf of Oman Lake of Urumieh 52700 445 23.45 5.75 Central Plateau 83100 166 137.95 5.55 Lake Hamoun 105.600 110 11.62 2.85 Kara Kum 43900 243 1067 0.45 Total 1640200 - 429.09 71.50

A side from the Caspian Sea, Iran has a few large lakes. Most lakes shrink in size during the hot dry summer and have a high salt content, because they have no outlet to carry away the salt concentrated from summer evaporation. The largest water body entirely within Iran is lake Urumieh in the northwest, a maximum depth of 16 m and volume of 45*109 m3. It is a saline lake with a very high salt content of more than 310000 mg L-1 TDS (Hammer. 1986:553). Figure 2.5 presents the whole Urumieh lake catchment with its West, south and northern sub basins (Ghassemi et al. 1995).

Figure 2.6 Urumieh lake catchment

Urumieh lake catchment with area about 47200 km2 located in NW part of Iran between longitude 44,07- 47,53 and latitude 35,40-38,30 consist of 3 provinces, west Azarbyjan (53%), south Azarbyjan (37%)and Kurdistan (10%). The catchment is divided in three east, west and south sub basin.

UUU9 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

There are 32 perennial and seasonal rivers feeding the lake. Simineh River and Zarrineh River are the main perennial rivers starting from Zagros Mountain in Kurdistan provinces southwest part of the lake. Both Rivers flow into the study area Miandoab alluvial plain. Because of having reservoir constructed on Zarrineh river the variation in amount of water flow for that river is under control, but in case of Simineh river there is considerable variation observed in amount of discharge during the year. Simineh river is a perennial one originating from Zagros mountain ranges, but due to reduces in total amount of precipitation in recent years, from month of July there was no considerable water discharge flowing through the riverbed. Simineh rivers dry riverbed is shown in figure 2.7. Figure 2.7 The dry riverbed of Simineh River in July 2002

Same years data as rainfall were used for rivers discharge, measured by existing gauges stations. There were two discharge gauge stations (up and downward) for each Simineh and Zarrineh rivers. Upward discharge gauge station in Dashband village on Simineh River is shown in figure2.8.

Figure 2.8 The discharge gauge station in Simineh river near the village of Dashband (July, 2002)

UUU10 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Regression analyses were done for determine the relation between rivers discharge and years of observation using systat soft ware with discharge as the dependent variable and years as the independent variable. Results are presented in table 3.2.

2.6. Ground water

The ground water resources of Iran occur mainly in alluvial and karstic limestone aquifers. The major alluvial aquifers are the main source of ground water supply and generally occur at the foothills of mountain in the form of alluvial fans and flood plains. They consist of boulder and gravel near the foothills, and the material becomes more finely texture toward the center of the plains. (Ghassemi et al.1995). The Zarrineh river alluvial plain is underlain by a multilayered aquifer system, less than 160 m thick, considering of gravel, sand and clay with gradual decrease in particle size toward the lake. The aquifer system is mainly recharged by the rivers and discharged in the marshlands of Lake Urumieh.

Figure 2.9 Ground water, a main source for irrigation in the study area

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Water quality of the aquifer is good, particularly on the east side of the Miandoab to Mahabad roads where the salinity is less than 550 mg L-1 TDS, but the quality deteriorates towards the north-west and reaches high values of about 10000 mgL-1 TDS. Water application rates are high and irrigation practice has a low efficiency, consequently improved agricultural practice and water use management are highly important. Ground water resources of the region are partly adequate for agricultural production. Conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources should be undertaken (Ghassemi et al.1995). Average monthly ground water table data related to 27 observational wells, for 1989 and 21 observational wells for 2000 were available. Those data were used to draw hydrograph for the change in monthly water table. Chang in ground water depth between1989 and 2000 is presented in Figure 3.4. To get an idea about the rate of decline in ground water table during the years of observation, long- term observational wells data were analysed. Using coordinates of wells dug in the study area a point map was created. Average yearly ground water table data related to observational wells in 1989 and 2000 were used to interpolate the point map using the moving average method. Ground water depth in 1989 and 2000 derived through interpolation of ground water depth observations from 27 wells 1989 and 21 wells 2000 (Figure 3.5). The decrease in water table during years 1989 to 2000 was obtained by subtracting those two maps from each other. For estimating the amount of water volume, the resulted map was sliced based on the soil texture in alluvial plain described by geology map of the study area. Available geology and soil maps (1:250000) of the area indicates the particles size in range of coarse, medium to fine from south to north of the study area. Based on this information three different coefficients 20%, 15 % and 10% were determined respectively to estimate the volume of water content in three types of soil texture, by multiplying into the area covered by each type of soil textures of the region. Change in water volume of the plain is presented in Table 3.5.

2.7. Crop calendar

UUU12 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Both, winter and summer crops are cultivated in the region. Wheat and barley are the major winter crops widely grown in irrigated lands. Allocated area for these two is about 40 %. Planting time for winter cereal normally is within one-month form Sep.23 depending on summer crops harvest and soil preparation. Sugar beet, Melon, watermelon, cucumber, corn, sunflower and onion are the main summer crops with 30 % allocated area. Alfa-Alfa with 15 % and Orchards with 6% area allocation in the region are the perennial crops. The rest is Rainfed and uncultivable lands. The dates for planting and harvesting of different crops that are grown in the study area are presented in figure 2.10.

Figure 2. 10 Typical crop calendar in Zarrineh and Simineh river basin

Crops Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Winter Wheat Barley Summer Sugarbeet Mellon Watermellon Cucumber Corn Sunflower Onion All year Alfa-Alfa Graps Orchards

2.7.1. Winter crops

Wheat and Barley are the main winter type crops that are grown on a wide scale in the region under irrigated condition. Cool and moist weather during growth, and warm and dry weather during grain formation in the area, are generally considered ideal for those crop productions. Wheat is a traditional crop for semi-arid zones and seems to be the most remunerative crop among the irrigated cereals of this region. It is grown mainly for human consumption, the wheat flour being used for baking breed. The crop is sown in lat September up to early October and harvested in July with a dormancy period lasting about hundred days from late December in winter. Allocated area for barley plantation is less than wheat, and it is grown mainly for animals feed. Plant- ing data for barley is later than wheat and harvesting time is earlier than that. Normally farmers apply one or two time irrigation after sowing in autumn and four-time irrigation in spring and summer up to crop maturity. Wheat and barley are grown in rotation with sugar beet, other summer crops and Alfa-Alfa.

2.7.2. Summer crops

Sugar–beet is the only temperate-zone crop that is grown for sugar production in the region. Approxi- mately more than 80 % of the irrigated area under cultivation of summer crops is allocated to sugar

UUU13 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

beet. It is sown in middle of March, and harvesting time is in October. The best sequence of environ- ments for spring sown sugar beets are warm summer temperatures for maximum growth followed by sunny autumn weather with temperature near to freezing. An irrigation requirement is one time per ten days based on the characteristics of the plant and environmental weather conditions. Besides sugar beet Melon, Watermelon, Cucumber, Maize, Onion and sunflower are other summer crops that are grown in the study area by farmers. Onion is sown in late March and for the rest planting time is early May. Harvesting time for all crops is in September.

2.7.3. Alfa-Alfa

Alfa-Alfa as a perennial forage crop is the principal source of the energy for the growth and maintenance of livestock, and hence for production of milk, meat, wool and animal work. Harvested dry forage normally store for animals winter consumption. Alfa-Alfa is cut four times per year in the region and irrigation is done one time per ten days. Sowing time for Alfa-Alfa is in April together with spring barley as mixed support cope, but some of the farmers prefer to plant it in September.

2.7.4. Orchards

The major orchard crops for the region are grapes. Different varieties of this crop are grown under irrigated condition, and farmers with grapes get more benefit. The main use of it is as fresh fruit and by products. Traditional cultivation of grapes in the region cased more irrigated water demand. Apple, Chary, Plumb and pitch are other main orchards crops that are grown in the study area.

2.7.5. Rainfed crops

Rainfed varieties of Wheat and barley were grown in those part of the study area that there was suit water limitation and soil salinisation problem.

2.8. Potential irrigated water requirement

Assessment of irrigation potential is one of the prime important for planning of food production in the region. Calculations of the crop water requirements and irrigation requirements were carried out with input of climatic, crop and soil data using CropWat 4.2 software. For the estimation of crop water requirements (CWR) the model was required:

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) values measured or calculated using the FAO Penman- Montieth equation based on monthly climatic data related to synoptic weather station located in Uru- mieh city: a) Minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration and Wind speed b) Monthly rainfall data

UUU14 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

c) A Cropping pattern consisting of the planting date, crop coefficient data files (including Kc values, stage days, root depth, depletion fraction) and the area planted (0-100% of the total area); a set of typical crop coefficient data files were provided in the program. Crop water requirements was calculated using the formula:

CWR=KC*ET0

Net irrigation water requirements was measured considering the amount of effective rainfall subtracting by calculated crop water requirements:

NIR=CWR-Pe

The calculated formula for Effective rainfall was based on the provided method by soil conservation organization of ministry of agriculture in the United States. In this method monthly effective rainfall for the areas with less 250 mm received rainfall per month, was measured using the formula (Farsi et al. 1998):

P effective=P total*(125-0.2* P total)/125

For calculating of crops irrigation water requirements the planting dates are approximations based on the interviews and are not necessarily the ideal ones. For planting purposes these dates adjusted to take advantage of the stored soil moisture and hence reduce irrigation requirements. That was especially true for sugar beet and onion. However, other summer crops may not be sown earlier than indicated due to the favourably low temperatures before May. For wheat and barley the planting time depends on summer crops harvesting time and normally is in October (Zwide. 1991).

2.9. Total irrigation water requirement

The results of classification showed the total area (ha) covered by each crop type (table 3.7). And net irrigation water requirement for crops grown in the region were calculated using Cropwat (Table 3.8). Total irrigation water requirement in the area for 1989 and 2000 was calculated multiplying the area covered by each crop type by net irrigation water requirement (table 3.9 and table 3.10). On-farm water application rates in the region are high and irrigation practice has a low efficiency of about 30 percent (Ghobadian, 1990:113-115). For example, the average annual application rates for major crops are as follow: barley, 4000 m3 ha-1; wheat, 5000 m3 ha-1; sugar beet, 14000 m3 ha-1 and vegetables, 17000 m3 ha-1 (Ghobadian. 1990:p.47). Apart from losses via unlined irrigation canals, the major part of the losses is at farm level via evaporation, due to inefficient irrigation practices (surface irrigation methods), and percolation, to the shallow aquifer, which causes water table rise and salinisation. Major causes of inefficiency include: improper design of irrigation facilities; poor maintenance; careless operation; negligible water prices and inade- quate training of farmers (Ghassemi, et al. 1995) Because of surface irrigation method that is widely used, the on-farm water application rates in the region are high and irrigation practice has a low efficiency of about 30 percent. In this method that

UUU15 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

mainly are used for wheat, barley and Alfa-Alfa field’s irrigation, the land is divided in to long narrow parallel stripes separated by earth banks. These are arranged lengthwise in the direction of the maximum gradient of the land. The water con- signed to each irrigation unit from a watering conduit situated at the highest point flows down the gradient to the bottom, moistening the soil. Traditional irrigation system using surface method that is widely in use by farmers for irrigation is presented in figure 2.11. Figure 2.11 Traditional surface irrigation in the study area

Farrow irrigation method has been practiced in the study area in summer crops field. The principal of the method are similar to those of border irrigation but land preparation differs because numerous fur- rows are used instead of the smooth surface of bays. Recently sprinkler irrigation is increasingly being used by farmers but because of capital cost for the system it is not widely adapted in the study area.

2.10. Total amount of water feeding the lake

Long-term discharge data was available for flowing rivers through the Urumieh lake catchment including two main rivers in south part of the lake as study area. A part from the water demand for irrigation, there were also water demands for human consumption environmental use in different cities and villages. Final amount of rivers discharge feeding the lake were measured in downward gauge stations related to each rivers. Since the lake water volume is directly affected by change in rivers discharge feeding the Lake, any increase in water use has negative affect on recharge of the lake. Long-term fluctuation of the lake level caused by reduction in amount of rainfall and increase in water demand for irrigation and human use is presented in figure 3.12.

UUU16 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

2.11. Lake level prediction model

Water balance techniques, one of the main subjects in hydrology, are a means of solution of important theoretical and practical hydrological problem. On of the basis of the water balance approach it is possible to make a quantitative evaluation of water resources and their change under influences of man’s activities. The study of the water balance structure of lakes, rivers basins, and ground water basins forms basis for the hydrological substantiation of projects for the region use, control and redistribution of water resources in time and space (e.g. inter-basin transfers, stream flow control, etc.). Knowledge of water balance assists the prediction of the consequences of artificial change in the regime of streams, lakes, and ground water basins (The Unesco press. 1974) Lake Urumieh is a large (5500km2), but shallow lake (11.5m) located in northwest part of Iran. The lake has no surface outlets but is drained by 15 rivers. Direct precipitation (250mm/year) is one of the two dominant sources of water inflow for the lake, plus rivers discharge. Evaporation from the lake surface is about 1150 mm/year. Departures from the tight budget between inflow and outflow can produce major changes in lake level over short periods of time. These changes include periodic fluctuations of the lake level during drought and major flooding of the lake during periods of high rainfall (kish et al. 2001). During the recent severe drought (1995-2002) the lake level decreased to 1274 meter above the sea level. The conceptual model for Urumieh Lake that shows the diversions for water use is presented in figure 2.12.

Figure 2.12 Conceptual models for water diversions in Urumieh Lake area

Rainfall

Evaporation Runoff 28 % Wells Irrigated area

Lake level Rivers water Water demand per species

Irrigation water demand

Rivers discharge in lake

Other diversion of water

According to the nature of the water balance, Lakes can be divided into two main categories: • Open lakes (exorheic) with outflow

UUU17 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

• Closed (endorheic) likes without outflow Lakes with intermittent (ephemeral) outflow during high water stages constitute an intermediate cate- gory. The water balance equation for lakes and reservoirs for any time interval may be written as follows:

QsI+ QuI+ PL-EL- Qs0- Qu0- ∆sL = 0 (1)

Where QsI is surface inflow into the lake or reservoir; QuI is ground water inflow; PL is precipitation on the surface of the lake, EL is evaporation from the lake surface; Qs0 is surface outflow from the lake or reservoir; Qu0 is underground outflow including percolation through the dam; and ∆SL is the variation of water storage in the lake for the balance period.

For large lakes and reservoirs the surface inflow QsI is usually subdivided into inflow Qm from the mainstream and lateral Q1, i.e.

QsI = Qm+ Q1 (2)

For lakes and reservoirs with a surface area varying considerably during water level fluctuations, it is preferable to express the components of the water balance equation in volumetric measurements. For lakes with a constant surface area it is more convenient to express water balance components as a depth of the water layer relative to the mean surface area of the lake.

The mean surface area is estimated as an arithmetic mean for the balance period. The mean water balance equation for open lakes (exorheic) lakes and reservoirs, for which it can be assumed that ∆sL = 0, is as follow:

QsI+ QuI+ PL= Qs0+ Qu0+ EL (3)

In cases where the underground runoff components (QuI and Qu0) do not contribute significantly to the balance, they may be neglected and equation (3) may be simplified to:

QsI+ PL= Qs0+ EL (4)

The equation for mean water balance of closed (endorheic) lake is comprised of only three terms:

QsI+ PL= EL (5)

Equation (5) can be applied for an approximate evaluation of the water resources of small endorheic lake, using data on precipitation and runoff (inflow) only (The Unesco press 1974). For Urumieh Lake as an endorheic lake, area is a function of (recharge by rivers flow after use in irrigated lands + direct rainfall on lake)-evaporation from lake surface. The whole Urumieh lake catchment is about 47200 Km2 with average annual precipitation about 398 mm, that it caused 18.786 Km3 volume of water. Runoff coefficient of the basin is about 28 %, thus the amount of water feed the lake (5.354 Km3) divide by area of the lake (5500 Km2) gives 973 mm depth of water.

UUU18 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

The annual evaporation is equal to 1150 mm, and the long-term average amount of precipitation on lake surface is about 250 mm. So as a result (1150-250=900mm) evaporation from the lake surface is almost in balance with the amount of water feeding the lake. The water level of the lake ranged between 1275 to 1278.5 meters above sea level during the years of observation from 1976 to 2000. Fluctuations in the lake level are caused by variation of rainfall in to the lake, evaporation from the lake surface and discharge of water by the river that contributed on average of 6-km3 water annually in to the Lake. The objective of the water balance estimation is to develop a capability to assess the state of land and water resources to help predicting the potential for future agricultural production and develop a meth- odology for assessment and presentation of water resources. A preliminary water balance was done for Urumieh lake using average monthly rivers discharge, precipitation on lake surface, evaporation from the lake area and measured lake level data. First we prepared a small-scale digital elevation model (1:250000) for the lake area (Fig 3.13) using contour map of the study area.

Based on the highest measured level of lake level, a map was created using formula (“IFF (DEM>given lake level,?, given lake level-DEM)” in ILWIS software. The area of the lake and also volume of water for various depth of water of the lake were calculated using histogram of the created map. The last prepared DEM map for Urumieh Lake is shown in figure 3.13.

After delineation of the lake area, Long-term monthly precipitation over the lake surface was calculated using Urumieh synoptic weather station data. Long-term monthly rainfall data from 1976 onward; were available and was used for this calculation.

Long-term monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) were calculated. Long-term monthly available data for sunshine hours, relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed and rainfall were related to synoptic weather station located in Urumieh city were used for those calculation . In case of saline water, evaporation rate decreases by about 1 percent for each percent increase in salinity because of reduce vapour pressure of the saline water. Accordingly evaporation from sea water with an average salinity of about 35 parts per thousand is some 2 to 3 less than evaporation from fresh water, although this effect is normally small enough to be discounted when comparing evaporation rates from different fresh water bodies (Robinson. 1990). In case of Urumieh Lake The water of the Lake has a very high salt content of more than 310000 mg L-1 TDS (Hammer, 1986), Thus the amount of evaporation from the lake surface depends on rate of salinisation of lake water. And by increase in percentage of salt in water the rate of evaporation will be decreased. The amount of water salinity ranges from 25 to 35 percentages, related to various volume of lake water. This amount of salt content causes less evaporation from the lake surface. Thus, to have estimation 0f evaporation from lake surface, a coefficient of 0.7 for an average rate of salinity for the lake water applied on calculated monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) rate with equation (Hoogeveen. 1999):

UUU19 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

E0w = Kw * ET0

With

E0w = Open water evaporation

ET0 = Penman Montieth reference evaporation

Kw = Correction factor for open salty water evaporation

The relation between open water evaporation and crop evapotranspiration is very complex (Smith, 1990). Total monthly evaporation from lake surface (km3), was calculated multiplying monthly reference crop evapotranspiration by lake area. Long-term average monthly discharge of the main rivers (km3) flowing in the whole Urumieh lake catchment was arranged. The amount of lake volume (km3) for various depth of the lake water was calculated using histogram of the digital elevation map. A table was arranged using extracted information about accumulated lake volume, measured level of the lake and also prepared data for total yearly precipitation over the lake, total yearly evaporation from the lake surface and total rivers discharge feeding the lake. The relation between lake levels (meter above sea level) and the amount of lake volume (km3) is presented in table3.15 Following formula was used for rivers discharge prediction at the end of the each year:

D=V2-V1+E-R With

3 V1=Lake volume at the beginning of each year (km )

3 V2=Total amount of lake volume at the end of the year (km )

P= Total yearly precipitation on lake (km3)

D= Total yearly rivers discharge (km3)

E=Total yearly evaporation from the lake surface (km3)

UUU20 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

3. Result

3.1. Hydrology

3.1.1. Rainfall

The rainfall distribution is uneven in the region. The rainy season starts in October and ends early June. High rainfall occurs during December to May. Long-term average precipitation of the area is about 350 mm. Because of importance of some rain gauges in the study area for the areal rainfall than others, the Thi- essen method was applied. The area of influence was defined by the Thiessen polygons. The polygons were created using nearest point method for interpolation of gauge stations coordinate. Interpolated maps for both Simineh and Zarrineh river basin are shown in figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1 Interpolated maps of Simineh river (left) and Zarrineh river (right) basin using nearest point method

Mean precipitation data on the both rivers basin were obtained. The calculated weights were applied as a coefficient on total precipitation amount, measured in related rain gauges. New obtained values for rainfall amount were used for regression analysis.

UUU21 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Calculated weight and also the area covered by each polygon are presents in table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Calculated weight for each rain gauges and the area of polygons (km2)

Simineh aria Zarrineh aria Rain stations polygons Relative weight polygons Relative weight Alasaggal 1409.4 36.6 21.7 0.2 Baitas 772.4 20.1 0.0 0.0 Choblojeh 0.0 0.0 962.2 7.0 Dashband 768.3 19.9 54.9 0.4 Gabgablo 77.8 2.0 1765.5 12.9 Miandoab 81.5 2.1 770.0 5.6 Nnezamabad 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nourozloo 242.4 6.3 221.8 1.6 Polsagges 0.0 0.0 2966.2 21.6 Sarigamish 9.4 0.2 2313.7 16.9 Shahendegh 0.0 0.0 1319.1 9.6 Tazehkand Ajorloo 0.0 0.0 2649.8 19.3 Tazehkand-Simineh 323.4 8.4 59.4 0.4 Zangeerabad 167.4 4.3 610.0 4.4 Total 3851.9 100.0 13714.3 100.0

Diagram of long-term yearly average precipitation based on adjusted data are presented in figure 3.2.

Figure 3.2 Average annual rainfalls in the Simineh (left) and Zarrineh (right) Catchments, Iran

500 600

400 500

) )

m m

( (

l l l 300 l 400

a a

f f

n n

i i

a a

R R 200 300

100 200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200 Year Year

UUU22 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Regression analysis was done on average rainfall in the catchment and years of observation. And the result is presented in table 3.2. It reveals that there was no significant decline in rainfall for rivers catchment between years 1976 and 2000.

Table 3.2 Regression statistics for the relation between average rainfall and year of observation for Simineh and Zarrineh River catchment. b=estimated slope, p=p-value, n=number of observation

River b p n catchment Simineh -0.009 0.649 24 Zarrineh -0.029 0.088 21

River discharge

Rivers discharge was measured at 4 gauges (Fig. 3.3). We failed to detect significant change in discharge for three out of the for gauge stations (Table 3.3). Only for Tasehkand station there was a significant decline. It is note worthy, however that all four stations revealed a negative sign for the regression.

Table 3. 3 Relation between river discharge and years of observation measured at four gauges along Simineh and Zarrineh River. b=estimated slope, p=p-value, n=number of observation

Gauge station River b p n Dashband Simineh -0.419 0.155 24 Tasehkand Simineh -0.598 0.035* 24 Sarigamish Zarrineh -0.631 0.540 21 Nezamabad Zarrineh -1.522 0.231 21

Figure 3.3 Average annual discharges at of the Simineh River (left, at 24 years) and the Zarrineh River (right, at 21 years), Iran.

50 150

)

/ / 100

M M 30

(

h h 20

i i 50

D 10

0 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Year

UUU23 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

3.1.2. Ground water

The existence and occurrence of ground water as a main source of water was known and understood by the people thousands years ago. At present wells are considered as the simplest and more operable tools to obtain water demand for irrigation and other different uses. Evidence shows that at present the natural extraction from the aquifers is more than their recharge. This has caused significant decline in ground water level of area aquifers (Ghassemi et al.1995). Apart from use of rivers water for irrigation, ground water also was widely was used for irrigating cultivated fields. Based on given official information there are more than 6000 wells with various depths ranged between 20 meters to 25 meters in the study area, dug by the farmers to irrigate their farms. Considering a four litres discharge per second, five hours time per days and seven months per year for crops irrigation water requirements from June up to November, it makes 0.92 km3 water that yearly was extracted through the wells for irrigation. Accessibility of water flowing through the canals only in two weeks out of four per month in each main branches of the canals network and the existing of this idea that crops disease was distributed with canals water, are the main reasons for increased in number of dug wells in the study area. Average monthly data related to 27 observational wells, for years 1989 and 21 observational wells for 2000 were used to have an idea about fluctuation of water table in the study area during the years of observation. The fluctuation of water table decreased from 1277.8 meters above sea level in 1989 to 1273.9 in 2000. Monthly well data are presented in table 3.4.

Table 3.4 Monthly depth (m) of the ground water table in 1989 and 2000

Month 1989 2000 Change Jan 1278.1 1274.4 -3.7 Feb 1278.1 1274.5 -3.6 Mar 1278.2 1274.6 -3.6 Apr 1278.3 1274.2 -4.1 May 1278.1 1273.9 -4.2 Jun 1277.9 1273.4 -4.5 Jul 1277.5 1273.3 -4.2 Aug 1277.4 1273.7 -3.7 Sep 1277.4 1273.7 -3.7 Oct 1277.5 1273.7 -3.8 Nov 1277.6 1273.7 -3.9 Dec 1277.8 1273.9 -3.9 Average 1277.8 1273.9 -3.9

The 3.9-m decline in ground water table represents a considerable volume of water. It is caused by increase in water demand for irrigation and other uses. The hydrograph of the ground water table fluctuation in 1989 and 2000 is presented in figure 3.4.

UUU24 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Figure 3.4 Monthly fluctuations of the ground water level in 1989 (upper) and 2000 (lower).

The diagram in fig 3.4 reveals the trend of monthly ground water table during the years of 1989 and 2000. Ground water table of the area shows monthly fluctuations with high level in March-April due to amount of rainfall, and low level in July- October that irrigation water demand was increased, but the amount of ground water for recharge of the aquifer was showed less than extracted discharge in the study area. Long-term existence observation wells data were analysed, and a point map was created using coordinates of observation wells. Average yearly ground water level data related to deferent observational wells in years 1989 and 2000 were used to interpolate the point map using moving average method. Interpolated maps of ground water for years 1989 and 2000 respectively are presented in figure 3.5.

Figure 3.5 Ground water depth in 1989 (left) and 2000 (right). The maps were derived through interpolation of ground water depth observations from 27 wells (1989) and 21 wells (2000)

UUU25 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

The decline in ground water table in year 2000 comparing to year 1989 was determined by subtracting those two interpolated map from each other that is presents by Figure 3.6.

Figure 3.6 Change in ground water depth between 1989 and 2000

Resulted map was sliced, and three classes were defined by determining the upper bonds based on differences in soil texture. Total area covered by each soil texture type and volume of water content is presented in table 3.5.

Table 3.5 Change in volume of water (km3) stored in the subsoil, due to the decrease of ground water level between 1989-2000

Soil texture Water volume Water content Area (km2) (km3) Coarse 0.20 62.69 0.01253844 Moderate 0.15 809.79 0.12146895 Fine 0.10 451.14 0.04511439 Total - 1320.06 0.17912178

Total decline in volume of water between1989 and 2000 is 0.179 km3. It mainly caused by decrease in total amount of rainfall and increase in irrigated lands and water demand for irrigation and human uses.

3.2. Irrigated area

Supervised classifications were done based on using mentioned methods in previous section for both images. All possible combination of used bands was considered having feature spaces comparison to get an idea about advantages of the selected classification method. Figure 3.7 is presents the two feature spaces out of all to have a comparison between samples of different clusters visualization.

UUU26 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Figure 3.7 Feature space for combination of band 4 and 3 for (left) and pc1 with ndvi (right)

The figure shows an example of visualization of feature classes. In principal component analysis method for water cluster based on more samples that were taken, it was appeared as a good visual cluster. And except orchards and summer crops clusters, there was no overlap between other clusters. This condition was same in all classifications method. Images were shown more mixed pixels especially for summer crops and also orchards, because of small plot size for cash crops that led to a large number of the mixed pixels. Because of differences in pixel values that area tended to bare soil it was difficult to assign those mixed pixel to related crop classes using normal bands classification. Principle component analysis using maplist consist of pc1, pc2 and pc3 that were listed in decreasing order of variance, and NDVI was the effective method for accounting mixed pixel and allocate mixed pixel to related crops types. Based on field survey the result of principal component analysis was closed to reality, thus the analysis was done based on the result of this method. Fieldwork was done in June and July of 2002 and the recent image was taken in August 2000, so having the exact information about the field’s condition except Alfa-Alfa and orchards fields because of miss information resulted from interview with the farmers was not so easy. Obtained overall accuracy of the classification indicates the problem. Overall accuracy of the method for 2000 image classification is presented in table 3.9.

Table 3.6 Confusion matrix for crop type classification based on TM image of 2000

UUU27 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Alfa- Or- Rain- Summer Win- Wa- Unclassi- Accu- Alfa chards fed crop ter ter fied racy crop Alfa-Alfa 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.90 Orchards 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0.80 Rainfed 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 0.71 Winter crop 3 0 1 6 2 0 0 0.50 Summer 0 0 1 3 7 0 0 0.64 crop Water 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1.00 Reliability 0.75 1.00 0.71 0.67 0.54 1.00

3.3. Map classes The legend as shown in fig 3.8 was adopted for the image classification. The interpretation for that is explained as follow:

Figure 3.8 Classified TM image 2000

Wheat and barley as winter crops and sugar beet and cash crops as summer crops are the major annual crops that were grown in the study area. Alfa-Alfa and orchards are the perennial crops for the region.

3.3.1. Alfa-Alfa

Alfa-Alfa as second perennial crop normally observed lighter green than orchards and on (FCC432) it had a sharp red appearance. However, when the Alfa-Alfa is cut then the ground cover is reduced significantly and classification became difficult, because on the image it then look like sparse vegetation with a large amount of bare soil.

3.3.2. Orchards Orchards were normally observed in the field as dark green. On the False Color Composite (FCC432) it has a dark red appearance.

UUU28 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

3.3.3. Summer crops The pixels of this class represented a variety of different kinds of sugar beet, maize and vegetables such as melon, watermelon, onion, and cucumber, and added complication to this class was the normally small plot size for vegetables that led to a large number of the mixed pixels.

3.3.4. Winter crops This class included winter wheat and barley that were easily to classify because of the reflection characteristics of the dry materials left behind. Because of early harvesting of barley (End of June) and feeding the harvested fields by animals the appearances of those fields in the image were more bright green than harvested wheat fields on FCC432, thus it was considered to have two classes for classification posses (rainfed and winter crops).

3.3.5. Rainfed

Rainfed wheat and barley varieties are cultivated in the area in some fields that sweet water is not available and also the fields had salinisation problem. At the image time because of harvesting, those fields had reflection like bare soils.

3.3.6. Water Typical areas representing open water surfaces are found in wide rivers and dam constructed on Zar- rineh river. But because of image time some part of the riverbed in the image found dry. Figure 3.9 shows the irrigated area in the Simineh and Zarrineh river catchment in 1998 and 2000. The figure reveals marked increase in irrigated area over this time period.

Figure 3.9 Total irrigated area in the region in June 1986 (left) and August 2000 (right). The map produced by supervised classification of landsat TM images.

The area covered by each crop type using histogram of the images is presented in table 3.7.

Table 3.7 Area (ha) covered by five crop types according to the map displayed

UUU29 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Crop type Area in 1989 Area in 2000 Rainfed 8761.59 9607.59 Winter crops 41188.59 60108.39 Summer crops 43520.31 43286.49 Alfa-Alfa 5427.36 6389.37 Orchards 5240.7 4110.03 Total 104138.55 123501.97

There was 18417.42-hectare increase in total irrigated area during years between 1989 and 2000. This increase mainly caused by irrigation canal network development through whole the study area, increases in total number of dug wells by farmers and government policy on increase in prize for agricultural productions.

3.4. Irrigation and water demand

The net irrigation water requirements for crops grown in the region are presented in table 3.8 and figure 3.10. It should be noted that irrigation requirement in 2000 were somewhat higher than 1989. This was the result of the extremely dry condition in spring and early summer of 2000.

Table 3.8 Net irrigation water requirements for crops grown in the region. Calculations were made using CropWat.

Crop TRR Req. (1989) TRR Req. (2000) Onion 476.65 511.67 Maize 579.64 637.21 Melon 542.44 597.81 Sugar beet 851.46 926.02 Sunflower 534.94 579.34 Winter wheat 660.30 771.89 Winter barley 594.27 694.70 Alfa-Alfa 819.50 946.73 Orchards 633.68 687.72

UUU30 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Figure 3.10 Reference crops evapotranspiration, (ET0) Crops water requirement (CWR) and irrigation requirement water for Alfa-Alfa, Breed wheat and Sugar beet. Calculations were based on climatic data for 2000.

Table 3.9 and 3.10 show the crop water requirements in 1989 and 2000. There was 0.226-km3 increase in water demand for irrigation.

Table 3.9 Total water requirements for different crops, grown in the study area in 1989

Crop type Area (ha) IRR req. mm/ha Water demand (km3) Winter crops 41188.6 640.65 0.264 Summer 43520.3 728.37 0.320 crops Alfa -Alfa 5427.4 819.5 0.044 Orchards 5240.7 633.68 0.033 Total 95377 - 0.661

UUU31 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Table 3.10 Total water requirements for different crops, grown in the study area in 2000

Crop type Area (ha) IRR req. mm/ha Water demand (km3) Winter crops 60108.4 748.63 0.450 Summer 43286.4 793.5 0.344 crops Alfa -Alfa 6389.4 946.73 0.061 Orchards 4110 780.57 0.032 Total 113894.2 0.887

3.5. Lake level

Figure 3.11 presents the long-term fluctuation of the lake level. It caused mainly by variation in total amount of precipitation over the Urumieh lake catchment.

Figure 3.11 Average monthly level of lake Urumieh (meter above sea level) between 1969 and 2001

1279

1278

) 1277

(

e 1276

L 1275

1274

1273 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 Year

Figure.3.11 reveals the fluctuation of lake level with higher level, in spring following snow melt, and low level at the end of summer. The figure shows a marked seasonal pattern increase of lake level between 1992 and 1995. This was followed by a sharp reduction of lake level from 1996 onward.

For more lake area recognition a sub map

Figure 3.12 Digital elevation model was created using the original one, and (DEM) with delineation of the Urumieh Lake the prepared contour lines of the lake were overlaid on it. The presented legend UUU32belongs to original map. MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

The highest value for lake level that was measured is 1278.5 meter above sea level in 1995.Using formula { “IFF (DEM>1278.5,?, 1278.5-DEM)”} in ILWIS, a new map was created for having an idea about the area and the amount of volume of the lake for different level of water. Histogram of the map was presented the different volume of water for each 0.01-meter depth of lake water. Accumulated areas and also accumulated volumes of water were calculated for different calculated level of the lake. Figure 3.13is presented the prepared map for 1278.5-meter lake level.

Figure 3.13 Area flooded by lake Urumieh during the highest level of the lake in 1995

Maximum level for the lake belongs to year 1955 and flooding of the lake during periods of high rainfall. With this level the volume of the lake is equal to36.27 km3 and the area covered by the lake will be 5852.99 km2.

The relation between lake level and lake volume is presented in figure 3.14. Figure 3.14 Relation between lake level and lake volume

) 30

(

u 20

L 10

0 .0 .5 .0 .5 .0 .5 .0 .5 .0 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Lake level (meter above sea level)

Table 3.11 shows the observed discharge derived from observations at 15 gauges in 15 rivers, and the discharge predicted from the water balance model for lake Urumieh.

UUU33 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Table 3.11 Rivers discharge as observed at gauges in 15 rivers and predicted from a water balance model for lake Urumieh. Year Observed Predicted 1976 8.96 1.89 1977 7.91 0.79 1978 7.66 0.72 1979 12.06 2.78 1980 8.19 0.64 1981 6.55 0.17 1982 8.20 2.18 1983 8.38 1.89 1984 6.17 2.36 1985 8.66 2.35 1986 7.45 1.78 1987 12.55 2.01 1988 12.39 1.85 1989 6.81 1.68 1990 6.15 0.27 1991 6.99 2.67 1992 11.41 1.13 1993 14.33 5.19 1994 9.53 4.91 1995 7.25 2.44 1996 5.87 1.68 1997 7.24 0.65 1998 4.10 2.46 1999 1.05 0.29 2000 1.26 0.28

Figure 3.15 shoes the relation between observed and predicted discharge. The figure reveals that predicted rivers discharge was always considerably lower than the observed discharge. This was reflected by regression equation:

Y = 0.0777 + 0.2188 * X Where

Y = Predicted discharge and X stands for the observed discharge. The regression accounted for 28.9 % in predicted river discharge, while α did not differ significantly from zero. β Significantly differ from 1

(H0: β=1 was rejected with p= 0.0056). 15 Figure 3.15 Relation between observed and predicted rivers discharge

c 10

c 5

UUU34 0 0 5 10 15 Observed river discharge MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

The figure suggested that there was more water disappears in wet than in dry years perhaps because people may use more water (larger area irrigated) in wet than in dry years.

Further regression analysis was done to obtain an idea about the effects of other variables such as years of observation and lake level on predicted rivers discharge. The result is presented in table 3.12.

Table 3.12 Regression statistic for the best fitting regression model predicting the predicted lake level

Variable b p Observed discharge 0.219842 0.00191 Lake level 0.891135 0.00886

Table 3.12 revealed that the effects of observed discharge and lake level on predicted discharge are highly significant. And the regression accounted for 48.3 % in predicted rivers discharge. In this case the model for rivers discharge prediction was as below:

Y = -1137.181596 + 0.219842 * X1+ 0.891135 * X2

Where

Y = Predicted discharge

X1= Observed river discharge

X2= Lake level

The relation between predicted rivers discharge and observed rivers discharge for different lake level is presented in figure 3.16. The figure revealed that if lake level was risen up then difference between predicted rivers discharge and observed rivers discharge was reduced.

Figure3.16 Relation between predicted and observed river discharge. The lines indicate the prediction of the regression model for a lake level of 1274 respectively 1278 meter above sea level.

Y = X

l 10

d 1278 m

e 5

1274 m 0 0 5 UUU35 10 15 Observed lake level MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

4. Discussion

Iran is located in dry region with average precipitation of about 240 mm/yr. The estimation for average yearly precipitation on earth’s surface is about 860 mm. It is understandable that yearly precipitation in Iran is even less than one-third of the world’s precipitation. Besides the distribution of rainfall dose not match with the time and place that irrigation is needed for agriculture as a main source for water consumption. Mainly the location of big cities in Iran is far from the available source of surface water. Thus drought in our country is an ecological fact. (Alizadeh. 1991). The Regression analysis was done on long-term average precipitation data for both Simineh and Zar- rineh rivers catchment. The result revealed that there was no significant decline in amount of precipitation during the years of observation from 1976 to 2000. In recent five years the study area was faced with reduction in total amount of precipitation. Although the average long-term precipitation was closed to average long-term amount, but the trend for occurrence of precipitation was gradually limited to month of November to early May. Almost all of precipitation amount during the wet season was occurred in field of rainfall than snow with abnormal distribution. In the rest period of the year the weather became completely dry and hot.

The result of analyses on long-term rivers discharge at 4 gauges in the Simineh and Zarrineh rivers catchments revealed a negative sign for all 4 gauges. Only for Tasehkand station as downward gauge on Simineh river, regression analyses showed a significant decline in amount of discharge. The causes for decline can be mentioned as fallow: • Changes in climatic condition in the region consist of reduction in total among of precipitation • Increase in average daily temperature and subsequently, increase in evapotranspiration • Increase in irrigated area along the rivers • Traditional irrigation system with low efficiency (30 %) and consequently more use of water for irrigation • Non-existence of canal network along the rivers especially in case of Simineh river (existing canal network is only for Zarrineh river, because of having dam constructed on it) • Increase in ground water use through many dug wells in the study area along the rivers, and direct use of river water for irrigation by means of many water pumps

UUU36 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

• The amount of 0.04-km3 volume of water from Simineh river is annually allocated to human and environmental uses in bookan city and its surrounded small towns. And also annual water demand for human use in Tabriz city that is pumped from Zarrineh river diversion dam estimated to be about 0.2 km3 Thus as a result it can be mentioned that there was heavy pressure on water uses along the rivers that caused decline in total amount of discharge.

Based on the result of images classification, total irrigated area in 1989 and 2000 are respectively 953.8 km2 and 1138.9 km2. It should be noted that 2000 was a very dry year. The differences between total irrigated areas presented by two images shows the rate of increase in irrigated lands along the rivers during recent 11 years. The increase in irrigated area mainly caused by: • Irrigation canals network development through whole irrigated area covered by Zarrineh river • Increase in number of wells dug by farmers • Government’s policy, with increase in costs for agricultural production Traditional irrigation system and low irrigation efficiency in the study area caused more water demand for irrigation. Small size lands distributed through the whole study area makes use of water more in- tensify. Ground water table fluctuation in the study area during 1989 and 2000 were analysed. Monthly observational wells data indicated a water table change from 1288.4 in 1989 to 1284.3 meter above the sea level in 2000. It caused a 0.18-km3 decline in volume of ground water. Considering that the aquifer in the study area was mainly recharged by rivers discharge, use of more ground water as one of the main sources of water supply for irrigation, can cause this decline in ground water volume. Recent decrease in total amount of precipitation in the region, increase in irrigated area and consequently, decrease in total amount of rivers discharge are the main reasons for decline in ground water content.

Net irrigation water requirement for cultivated crops in the study area were calculated, using meteoro- logical data of the region. Total amount of estimated irrigation water requirement for 1989 and 2000 were respectively 0.661 and 0.887 km3. Considering the low efficiency of traditional methods for irrigation in the study area, amount of requirement water for irrigation should be tripled. Use of surface water jointly with ground water in the whole study area is the usual way to supply the amount of water demand for irrigation.

Fluctuation in water level and change in water volume of Urumieh Lake caused by change in rivers discharge were investigated. Digital elevation model was used for determination the amount of water volume related to different level of the lake water. The prediction for rivers discharge was done using prepared date and information. Lake level data, rainfall over the lake, evaporation from lake surface and lake volume were used for river discharge prediction. The result of regression analyses showed that the amount of predicted rivers discharge was always considerably lower than the observed discharge. Regression analysis on effects of observed rivers discharge and lake level on predicted rivers discharge revealed that the effects of observed discharge and lake level on predicted discharge are highly significant. And the regression accounted for 48.3 % in predicted rivers discharge.

UUU37 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Because of shallow lake any change in lake level cases more fluctuation in lake border. In case of rise in lake level then difference between predicted rivers discharge and observed rivers discharge was reduced. One possible explanation is that, if lake level is high there will be fewer marshes and irrigated land between the gauge and the lake. So consumption of water downstream from the gauge will be lower. Increase in population rate and consequently growing demand for food production makes unavoidable increase in irrigated area. Use of traditional irrigation method with very low efficiency causes more increase in water demand for irrigation in the study area. Change in irrigation method with the finan- cial support of government, develop in main and secondary canals network will increase irrigation efficiency and less amount of water use.

The long-term objective of Iran’s water resources development plan is to control and regulate water resources for utilization in agriculture, industry and urban development. As a consequence of this policy there are many dams under construction or in preparation. New dams although have many advantages such as increase in irrigated area and reclamation of saline lands around the lake. But it will also have negative impacts such as reduce in lake area and total water volume of the lake. Based on preliminary studies, ministry of power predicted the amount of decease in river discharge feeding the lake. The amount of predicted reduction in different rivers discharge in case of dam construction is presented in table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Predicted decrease in river discharge in case of construction of the scheduled dams

Rivers Discharge (km3) Zola chay 0.073 Nazloo 0.124 Shahr chay 0.091 Barandooz 0.096 Gdar 0.27 Simineh 0.17 Zarrineh 0.871 Sofy chay 0.031 Galeah chay 0.065 Ajy chay 0.474 Total 2.2715

It is obvious that in order to survival of the lake discharge of the rivers should provide the amount of cost by evaporation. The main chance for recharge of Urumieh lake is the discharge of the rivers feeding the lake during the wet season along the years. During this period from December to early may the area is faced with flooding of the rivers cased by rainfall and also snow melting in early spring. And because of no water use for irrigation all rivers discharge feeds the lake. But in case of new dams construction the most amount of rivers discharge will lead the reservoirs to recharge of them. Thus the area and volume of the lake will considerably decrease and subsequently the lake will be faced with increase in salinisation rate of its water.

UUU38 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

References

Alizadeh, A. 1991. Principles of applied hydrology. Razavi cultural publication.Iran. Bonifacio T. 1996. A study on River discharge variation of Turon river, Malaga, Spain. ITC, En- schede. Ciavola-P; et al 1999. Relation between river dynamics and coastal changes in Albinia. International- Journal- of- Remote- Sensing. 15; 20(3) 561-584

Coe-M, T. and Foley-J, A. 2001. Human and natural impacts on the water resources of lake Chad. Journal- of- Geophysical- Research-D: -Atmospheres. 106 (4)

Farshi, A. A Et at.1997, An estimation of water requirement of main field crops and Orchards in Iran. Soil and water Research institute. Iran.

Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO). 1997. Irrigation potential in Africa.

Ghassemi, A., Jakeman, F, J and Nix, H, A.,1995 Salinization of lands and water resources, University of New South Wales press LTD.

Gieske, A. et al, 2002. Irrigated area by NOAA-landsat upscaling techniques IAERI-IWMI Research reports 10. IRAN

Gobadian, A.1990. Iranian Natural Recourses in Relations to Agricultural Utilization, Reconstruction and Reclamation. Kerman:Kerman University. 480 pp. (In Persian).

Hammer, U. T. ,1986. Saline lake ecosystems of the world. Dordrecht:; Dr W. Junk publishers. 616 pp.

Hoogeveen, J. 1999. A regional water balance of the Aral Sea through GIS. Land and Water Devel- opment Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Iranian National Committee on Large Dams. 1990. An Overlook of Iran’s Major Dams. 58th Interna- tional Commission on Larg Dams Extensive Meeting, Sydney, 21-26 May 1990.(Leaflet).

Loffier-H; et al. 1998 Lake prespa, a European natural monument, endangered by irrigation and eutro- phication, Hydrobiologia. 384: 69-74

McVicar-T.R.; et al.2002. Monitoring regional agricultural water use efficiency for Hebei provience in the North China. Australian- Journal- of Agricultural- Research 53(1): 55-76

UUU39 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Movahhed- Danesh, A.A. 1994. The hydrology of the surface waters of Iran. Samt publications of Iran

Reshetkina, -N. –M1991 Restructuring of irrigated agriculture in the Aral basin. Izvestia,- Akademiya- Nauk- SSSR,- Seriya- Geograficheskaya.

Unesco press, 1974. Methods for water balance computation. An international guide for research and practice. Unesco press place de fontenoy, 75700 Paris.

Wagaye Teshome. 1994. Application of remote sensing and field data in the geological mapping of an active rift system using GIS techniques.A case study from the lakes region (ZIWAY-LANGANO) Ethiopia. ITC, Enschede.

Wards, R. C. and Robinson, M. 1990. Principal of hydrology McGrew- Hill company (UK) Limited.0

Watanabe, T. and Maruyama, T. 1993. Effect of irrigation on reservoir and basin management in drought. Kundzewicz,- Z. W.; et-al

Wolters,-W; et al. 1989. Managing the water balance of the Fayoum Depression, Egept. Irrigation- and Drainage- systems. 3(20),pp 103-123.

Zalidis, G. 1998. Management of River water for irrigation to mitigate soil salinisation on a costal wet- lands. Jornal- of-Environmental-Management. 54(2): 161-167

Zwide, D.1991. Assessment of the automated land evaluation system (ALES) in land evaluation for irrigated agriculture for selected crops and soils in the antequera, south Spain. ITC, Enschede.

UUU40 MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

APPENDICES Appendix 1

Calculated ETO based on Urumieh synoptic weather station data

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1969 0.52 0.81 2.09 2.58 3.99 5.38 5.45 5.07 3.35 1.75 0.88 0.65 1970 0.59 1.25 1.86 3.32 4.67 5.92 5.81 5.32 3.97 2.52 0.83 1.26 1971 1.44 0.96 2.47 2.64 4.34 2.56 6.03 5.31 4.15 2.51 0.94 0.62 1972 0.53 0.71 1.26 3.07 3.28 4.94 6.74 4.92 3.89 2.34 0.93 0.58 1973 0.52 0.95 2.04 2.95 4.25 5.57 5.58 5.69 4.05 2.64 1.07 0.68 1974 0.49 0.71 1.23 2.87 5 5.77 5.69 4.88 3.47 2.36 1.21 0.61 1975 0.64 1.02 2.22 3.36 3.91 6.07 6.25 5.31 3.56 2.01 0.71 0.53 1976 0.71 0.98 1.55 2.9 3.48 5.18 5.15 4.74 3.39 1.92 0.96 0.63 1977 0.43 0.95 1.86 2.71 3.73 5.4 5.68 5.11 3.82 1.92 0.88 0.48 1978 0.73 1.08 2.15 3.22 3.98 5.11 5.91 5.03 4.22 2.15 0.8 0.71 1979 0.52 1.04 1.66 3.04 4 4.63 5.46 4.79 4.31 1.95 0.94 0.5 1980 0.5 0.84 1.66 2.98 4.1 4.71 5.6 4.66 3.56 2.13 0.96 0.56 1981 0.52 1.01 1.97 2.79 3.75 4.82 5.42 4.21 3.68 1.87 1.01 0.77 1982 0.6 0.83 1.69 2.85 3.49 5.02 5.29 4.63 3.26 1.47 0.61 0.31 1983 0.39 0.69 1.68 2.8 3.35 4.74 5.17 4.55 3.2 1.88 0.94 0.44 1984 0.53 0.82 1.71 3.2 3.03 4.58 4.95 4.5 3.28 1.83 0.74 0.39 1985 0.45 1.06 1.41 2.97 4.14 5.24 5.19 4.57 3.44 4.73 0.78 0.47 1986 0.59 0.98 1.49 2.6 3.84 4.5 5.26 4.62 3.42 1.76 0.68 0.52 1987 0.75 1.09 1.69 2.93 4.49 5.19 5.21 4.52 3.1 1.45 0.9 0.54 1988 0.51 0.84 1.95 3.39 4.43 4.9 5.17 4.37 2.66 1.74 0.97 0.52 1989 0.47 0.69 1.58 3.33 4.34 5.35 5.58 4.79 2.37 2.02 0.91 0.45 1990 0.5 0.84 1.74 2.8 4.16 5.36 5.21 4.6 2.49 1.78 1 0.54 1991 0.48 0.93 1.48 3.03 4.1 4.94 5.34 4.6 3.34 1.77 0.83 0.46 1992 0.53 0.92 1.56 2.85 3.08 4.47 2.58 4.34 3.12 1.88 0.92 0.46 1993 0.49 0.78 1.66 2.82 3.43 5.02 5.26 4.57 3.36 1.89 0.73 0.42 1994 0.51 0.97 1.78 3.1 3.95 4.87 5.39 4.61 3.1 1.79 0.85 0.52 1995 0.55 1.04 2.07 3.15 3.76 4.64 5.31 4.73 3.3 1.88 1.29 0.62 1996 0.5 0.95 1.58 2.85 4.04 5.34 5.39 4.55 3.79 1.77 1.52 0.61 1997 0.74 1 1.56 2.71 3.75 4.7 5.17 4.76 3.35 2.07 0.97 1 1998 0.55 0.95 1.83 3 3.86 5.41 5.11 4.76 3.19 1.94 0.96 0.59 1999 0.63 1.09 1.92 2.74 3.81 5.26 5.04 4.83 4.72 2.08 1.14 0.88 2000 0.6 1.07 1.86 2.74 3.67 5.02 5.27 5.33 3.46 2.12 0.92 0.62

UUUI MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Appendix 2 Long term yearly observed discharge of rivers in Urumieh lake basin km3

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1976 0.24 0.43 1.07 2.60 2.10 1.13 0.50 0.21 0.11 0.09 0.17 0.31 1977 0.31 0.55 1.50 1.88 1.63 0.69 0.26 0.23 0.16 0.13 0.21 0.36 1978 0.41 0.75 1.20 2.15 1.33 0.62 0.32 0.17 0.08 0.14 0.18 0.32 1979 0.56 0.90 2.86 3.53 2.37 0.79 0.21 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.28 0.34 1980 0.34 0.39 1.55 2.27 1.98 0.78 0.21 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.18 0.29 1981 0.34 0.43 1.49 1.68 1.03 0.48 0.26 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.16 0.42 1982 0.30 0.40 1.44 2.59 1.68 0.56 0.14 0.11 0.06 0.17 0.29 0.45 1983 0.53 0.52 1.18 2.30 2.11 0.81 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.09 0.15 0.31 1984 0.37 0.47 1.06 1.32 1.54 0.51 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.09 0.24 0.36 1985 0.55 0.78 0.94 2.77 1.78 0.73 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.46 1986 0.53 0.69 0.92 1.59 1.85 0.62 0.17 0.09 0.08 0.11 0.38 0.42 1987 0.63 0.91 1.96 3.53 3.02 0.77 0.24 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.41 0.67 1988 0.81 0.83 2.32 2.84 2.75 1.08 0.55 0.28 0.12 0.13 0.27 0.41 1989 0.43 0.57 1.62 1.68 1.33 0.22 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.27 0.41 1990 0.46 0.53 1.25 1.56 1.32 0.40 0.14 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.24 1991 0.26 0.31 1.22 2.21 1.31 0.88 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.13 0.41 1992 0.41 0.36 1.25 2.62 3.47 1.46 0.41 0.14 0.08 0.09 0.26 0.85 1993 1.33 1.01 1.88 3.20 3.20 1.22 0.43 0.19 0.12 0.13 0.67 0.95 1994 0.99 1.02 1.14 2.18 2.31 0.66 0.20 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.33 0.40 1995 0.43 0.56 0.92 1.69 2.07 0.76 0.23 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.20 1996 0.23 0.35 0.91 1.52 1.69 0.50 0.21 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.13 0.18 1997 0.30 0.44 0.63 2.46 1.95 0.59 0.21 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.31 0.22 1998 0.17 0.41 0.75 1.51 0.78 0.18 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.09 1999 0.06 0.13 0.15 0.29 0.19 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.05 2000 0.04 0.06 0.15 0.39 0.22 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.11 0.14

Appendix 3

UUUII MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Total monthly ET0 km3 (ET0*Lake area)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1976 0.11 0.13 0.23 0.42 0.53 0.79 0.78 0.71 0.49 0.28 0.14 0.09 1977 0.06 0.13 0.28 0.40 0.59 0.82 0.87 0.77 0.55 0.28 0.13 0.07 1978 0.11 0.15 0.32 0.47 0.60 0.75 0.89 0.75 0.67 0.31 0.11 0.10 1979 0.08 0.14 0.25 0.44 0.60 0.67 0.81 0.71 0.59 0.25 0.12 0.06 1980 0.06 0.10 0.23 0.43 0.61 0.67 0.80 0.59 0.43 0.27 0.12 0.07 1981 0.06 0.11 0.25 0.37 0.55 0.69 0.79 0.54 0.45 0.23 0.12 0.10 1982 0.08 0.09 0.21 0.38 0.52 0.72 0.77 0.59 0.40 0.19 0.07 0.04 1983 0.05 0.09 0.25 0.40 0.42 0.58 0.64 0.68 0.46 0.27 0.13 0.06 1984 0.08 0.11 0.25 0.46 0.45 0.66 0.71 0.58 0.40 0.23 0.09 0.05 1985 0.06 0.12 0.19 0.43 0.63 0.77 0.78 0.68 0.47 0.67 0.10 0.06 1986 0.08 0.13 0.22 0.37 0.57 0.65 0.78 0.67 0.46 0.23 0.08 0.07 1987 0.10 0.13 0.23 0.41 0.66 0.74 0.76 0.62 0.38 0.18 0.11 0.07 1988 0.07 0.10 0.29 0.50 0.72 0.78 0.85 0.70 0.41 0.27 0.14 0.08 1989 0.07 0.09 0.24 0.52 0.71 0.83 0.85 0.72 0.34 0.30 0.13 0.07 1990 0.07 0.11 0.26 0.41 0.63 0.78 0.78 0.68 0.34 0.25 0.12 0.07 1991 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.42 0.60 0.68 0.74 0.58 0.40 0.22 0.10 0.06 1992 0.07 0.10 0.19 0.35 0.45 0.65 0.39 0.65 0.45 0.27 0.13 0.07 1993 0.07 0.10 0.25 0.41 0.57 0.83 0.90 0.76 0.54 0.30 0.11 0.07 1994 0.08 0.15 0.31 0.52 0.70 0.83 0.95 0.81 0.52 0.31 0.14 0.09 1995 0.10 0.16 0.36 0.54 0.67 0.80 0.94 0.84 0.56 0.33 0.22 0.11 1996 0.09 0.15 0.28 0.49 0.72 0.92 0.95 0.80 0.64 0.31 0.25 0.11 1997 0.13 0.16 0.27 0.46 0.66 0.80 0.90 0.83 0.56 0.35 0.16 0.17 1998 0.10 0.14 0.31 0.50 0.67 0.91 0.88 0.81 0.52 0.32 0.15 0.09 1999 0.10 0.15 0.29 0.41 0.58 0.77 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.30 0.15 0.12 2000 0.08 0.13 0.26 0.37 0.47 0.61 0.66 0.65 0.40 0.25 0.10 0.07

Appendix 4 Total monthly ETO km3 (ETO*0.7*lake area)

UUUIII MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1976 0.07 0.09 0.16 0.29 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.34 0.20 0.10 0.07 1977 0.04 0.09 0.19 0.28 0.41 0.58 0.61 0.54 0.39 0.20 0.09 0.05 1978 0.08 0.10 0.23 0.33 0.42 0.52 0.62 0.52 0.47 0.21 0.07 0.07 1979 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.31 0.42 0.47 0.57 0.50 0.42 0.18 0.08 0.04 1980 0.04 0.07 0.16 0.30 0.43 0.47 0.56 0.41 0.30 0.19 0.08 0.05 1981 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.55 0.38 0.31 0.16 0.09 0.07 1982 0.05 0.07 0.15 0.27 0.36 0.50 0.54 0.42 0.28 0.13 0.05 0.03 1983 0.04 0.06 0.17 0.28 0.29 0.41 0.45 0.47 0.32 0.19 0.09 0.04 1984 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.32 0.31 0.46 0.49 0.40 0.28 0.16 0.06 0.03 1985 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.30 0.44 0.54 0.54 0.47 0.33 0.47 0.07 0.05 1986 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.26 0.40 0.46 0.54 0.47 0.32 0.16 0.06 0.05 1987 0.07 0.09 0.16 0.29 0.46 0.52 0.53 0.44 0.27 0.13 0.08 0.05 1988 0.05 0.07 0.20 0.35 0.51 0.55 0.60 0.49 0.28 0.19 0.10 0.06 1989 0.05 0.07 0.17 0.36 0.50 0.58 0.60 0.51 0.24 0.21 0.09 0.05 1990 0.05 0.08 0.18 0.29 0.44 0.55 0.55 0.48 0.24 0.17 0.09 0.05 1991 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.29 0.42 0.48 0.52 0.41 0.28 0.15 0.07 0.04 1992 0.05 0.07 0.14 0.24 0.31 0.46 0.27 0.45 0.31 0.19 0.09 0.05 1993 0.05 0.07 0.17 0.29 0.40 0.58 0.63 0.54 0.38 0.21 0.08 0.05 1994 0.06 0.10 0.21 0.37 0.49 0.58 0.67 0.57 0.37 0.22 0.10 0.06 1995 0.07 0.12 0.25 0.38 0.47 0.56 0.66 0.59 0.39 0.23 0.15 0.08 1996 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.34 0.50 0.64 0.67 0.56 0.45 0.22 0.18 0.07 1997 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.32 0.46 0.56 0.63 0.58 0.39 0.24 0.11 0.12 1998 0.07 0.10 0.22 0.35 0.47 0.64 0.62 0.57 0.37 0.22 0.10 0.06 1999 0.07 0.11 0.21 0.28 0.41 0.54 0.53 0.51 0.47 0.21 0.11 0.09 2000 0.06 0.09 0.18 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.28 0.18 0.07 0.05

Appen- dix 5 Total monthly rainfall over the lake km3

UUUIV MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1976 0.062 0.147 0.120 0.340 0.600 0.051 0.000 0.000 0.021 0.164 0.124 0.077 1977 0.240 0.067 0.546 0.259 0.387 0.078 0.003 0.039 0.010 0.119 0.196 0.435 1978 0.179 0.214 0.162 0.049 0.214 0.110 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.012 0.320 0.128 1979 0.206 0.117 0.123 0.435 0.119 0.202 0.000 0.014 0.001 0.051 0.019 0.179 1980 0.079 0.157 0.250 0.363 0.120 0.076 0.009 0.000 0.020 0.068 0.208 0.127 1981 0.216 0.114 0.178 0.386 0.195 0.074 0.014 0.008 0.000 0.066 0.218 0.117 1982 0.119 0.069 0.251 0.158 0.292 0.032 0.005 0.000 0.011 0.389 0.539 0.029 1983 0.083 0.031 0.074 0.123 0.256 0.061 0.004 0.043 0.018 0.006 0.142 0.088 1984 0.052 0.141 0.125 0.069 0.527 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.025 0.388 0.074 1985 0.107 0.136 0.281 0.200 0.138 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.052 0.145 0.068 1986 0.049 0.227 0.493 0.308 0.201 0.229 0.063 0.005 0.009 0.174 0.260 0.108 1987 0.000 0.213 0.144 0.170 0.025 0.015 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.366 0.081 0.475 1988 0.151 0.201 0.292 0.112 0.120 0.115 0.033 0.122 0.000 0.183 0.066 0.190 1989 0.058 0.038 0.266 0.066 0.129 0.004 0.000 0.010 0.002 0.439 0.254 0.043 1990 0.187 0.102 0.128 0.276 0.060 0.002 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.063 0.017 0.195 1991 0.002 0.098 0.332 0.171 0.077 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.067 0.357 1992 0.068 0.132 0.080 0.291 0.466 0.072 0.000 0.032 0.000 0.000 0.265 0.104 1993 0.127 0.222 0.344 0.516 0.682 0.091 0.061 0.016 0.000 0.053 0.402 0.235 1994 0.333 0.296 0.284 0.605 0.327 0.240 0.000 0.000 0.173 0.123 0.759 0.093 1995 0.151 0.232 0.119 0.686 0.132 0.093 0.139 0.000 0.065 0.040 0.219 0.044 1996 0.183 0.172 0.418 0.115 0.111 0.061 0.292 0.000 0.001 0.059 0.099 0.028 1997 0.218 0.069 0.291 0.330 0.149 0.001 0.024 0.000 0.037 0.000 0.007 0.125 1998 0.112 0.122 0.165 0.162 0.184 0.028 0.006 0.021 0.022 0.124 0.067 0.014 1999 0.118 0.133 0.084 0.190 0.125 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.106 0.149 0.312 2000 0.100 0.250 0.137 0.137 0.091 0.039 0.080 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.024 0.038

Appendix 6 Predicted river discharge feeding the lake

UUUV MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Year Lake level Measured discharge Predicted discharge 1976 1276.0 8.96 1.89 1977 1275.9 7.91 0.79 1978 1275.7 7.66 0.72 1979 1275.8 12.06 2.78 1980 1275.7 8.19 0.64 1981 1275.6 6.55 0.17 1982 1275.7 8.20 2.18 1983 1275.7 8.38 1.89 1984 1275.8 6.17 2.36 1985 1275.8 8.66 2.35 1986 1276.0 7.45 1.78 1987 1276.2 12.55 2.01 1988 1276.2 12.39 1.85 1989 1276.0 6.81 1.68 1990 1275.7 6.15 0.27 1991 1275.8 6.99 2.67 1992 1275.8 11.41 1.13 1993 1276.7 14.33 5.19 1994 1277.5 9.53 4.91 1995 1277.7 7.25 2.44 1996 1277.4 5.87 1.68 1997 1277.0 7.24 0.65 1998 1276.8 4.10 2.46 1999 1276.5 1.05 0.29 2000 1275.7 1.26 0.28

Appendix 7 Average maximum temperature (Urumieh synoptic weather station)

UUUVI MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave 1969 1.3 3.1 11.4 14.9 23.4 29.4 30.6 32.3 26.1 19.0 12.6 10.2 17.9 1970 5.7 9.1 11.8 18.2 22.6 27.9 29.8 30.3 25.6 19.2 14.7 2.7 18.1 1971 -3.5 3.4 12.9 14.2 22.8 25.6 31.4 29.5 28.2 18.9 12.2 3.5 16.6 1972 -3.0 -3.3 4.6 17.4 17.4 25.4 30.7 28.8 26.7 22.3 11.2 1.5 15.0 1973 -2.6 3.3 9.8 14.8 20.3 25.9 30.1 31.6 26.3 21.3 10.5 4.6 16.3 1974 -0.7 -0.1 7.0 13.6 24.0 28.0 28.6 28.1 23.2 21.1 13.4 5.4 16.0 1975 3.7 5.2 10.8 19.6 20.8 28.2 32.6 31.0 25.8 18.6 11.6 1.5 17.5 1976 3.6 2.6 7.8 15.3 19.9 26.6 29.7 32.7 25.3 18.8 12.7 8.0 16.9 1977 -1.7 6.2 11.5 16.9 20.7 27.7 29.6 30.8 27.1 17.4 12.6 3.1 16.8 1978 4.0 7.7 13.4 17.8 21.6 24.9 31.2 30.4 29.2 21.2 5.2 7.4 17.8 1979 2.4 7.0 10.6 17.7 21.8 25.7 31.1 31.3 29.2 20.4 14.9 7.4 18.3 1980 1.6 3.9 9.8 16.9 22.7 27.9 33.0 29.6 26.2 18.1 12.7 7.8 17.5 1981 3.5 6.7 11.8 14.1 19.8 25.3 29.9 29.6 27.3 19.9 11.6 8.2 17.3 1982 2.7 -0.0 7.7 18.5 20.8 26.1 30.2 28.3 26.2 16.3 5.2 -4.3 14.8 1983 -3.3 -0.7 9.1 15.8 20.7 26.6 31.5 29.5 25.6 19.3 14.1 6.0 16.2 1984 5.6 3.8 11.7 17.1 17.7 26.3 32.1 29.0 26.7 19.1 10.6 0.5 16.7 1985 1.3 4.0 5.6 17.2 23.5 28.7 29.9 30.2 27.4 18.2 13.9 4.9 17.1 1986 4.7 6.8 8.2 16.6 20.1 25.2 31.7 30.9 28.8 19.5 8.6 3.8 17.1 1987 8.4 8.1 9.0 15.6 25.2 29.2 30.9 30.1 25.2 13.9 11.8 5.8 17.8 1988 0.8 2.8 10.6 15.7 22.2 26.5 28.8 27.7 25.3 19.2 11.7 6.5 16.5 1989 -1.5 -1.6 10.1 20.1 23.4 28.9 32.9 31.2 26.2 19.8 12.3 7.1 17.4 1990 1.0 3.1 9.5 15.2 21.8 28.3 31.3 29.5 27.8 19.4 14.9 6.8 17.4 1991 1.6 4.1 9.7 17.8 21.3 27.4 31.1 30.9 26.5 20.2 12.3 2.0 17.1 1992 -0.0 2.3 5.9 15.7 16.7 24.7 29.3 27.3 24.4 20.3 11.4 4.6 15.2 1993 0.1 1.8 7.5 16.1 19.6 25.9 29.9 29.0 26.9 19.1 7.1 3.1 15.5 1994 2.7 5.8 11.4 18.3 21.2 26.2 28.8 29.5 24.5 19.9 11.7 3.7 17.0 1995 6.0 7.6 12.6 15.8 22.6 26.3 29.4 31.0 25.9 17.8 12.5 5.4 17.7 1996 -4.5 6.6 8.6 14.9 23.3 26.3 30.9 31.2 26.9 17.8 12.5 5.4 16.7 1997 5.4 4.3 6.0 16.0 22.7 27.5 30.0 31.2 25.6 19.3 12.0 10.0 17.5 1998 1.7 3.6 10.6 17.6 22.4 29.7 30.6 31.6 27.1 20.0 11.9 7.0 17.8 1999 5.0 9.6 11.5 17.1 24.2 28.9 30.0 33.0 26.3 20.8 16.4 10.6 19.5 2000 4.0 6.4 11.0 16.0 22.0 26.0 28.0 32.0 22.0 21.0 11.7 8.5 17.4

Appendix 8 Average minimum temperature(Urumieh synoptic weather station)

UUUVII MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave 1969 -4.7 -5.9 3.3 5.2 10.8 14.5 16.7 17.9 12.2 8.8 1.0 0.2 6.7 1970 -2.8 -2.8 0.7 5.3 7.9 11.4 15.5 15.8 9.7 5.0 2.2 -4.8 5.3 1971 -10.2 -9.3 0.4 3.9 8.6 11.7 16.4 15.1 11.0 5.2 1.0 -4.9 4.1 1972 -11.4 -15.2 -4.6 5.7 7.5 11.4 16.3 14.3 10.5 7.7 0.9 -7.0 3.0 1973 -13.6 -6.3 -2.3 2.9 7.3 11.2 14.9 16.1 10.4 6.6 -1.9 -5.6 1974 -9.2 -7.7 0.7 3.2 8.5 12.5 15.7 14.2 9.6 5.6 1.1 -4.4 4.2 1975 -7.0 -4.5 -1.9 5.5 8.1 13.0 17.1 14.8 11.5 4.7 -0.6 -6.7 4.5 1976 -5.6 -6.5 -3.9 4.5 7.8 12.3 14.7 16.2 11.3 6.5 0.1 -1.0 4.7 1977 -10.7 -5.3 1.4 5.4 8.6 12.3 15.9 14.8 11.2 3.3 -0.3 -4.7 4.3 1978 -5.7 -2.7 0.3 4.0 7.7 10.2 15.1 15.0 10.3 6.1 -4.0 -3.0 4.4 1979 -5.1 -2.3 -0.3 5.4 8.1 11.4 15.6 15.1 11.6 6.5 1.7 -3.4 5.4 1980 -7.9 -4.9 -0.6 3.9 8.5 12.2 16.8 15.0 9.3 4.4 2.1 -2.3 4.7 1981 -5.6 -3.0 1.0 3.0 6.4 11.8 15.4 14.7 10.1 5.6 0.0 -1.7 4.8 1982 -7.2 -10.1 -2.9 5.2 9.3 11.3 13.3 13.3 10.4 5.5 -3.5 -11.5 2.8 1983 -14.4 -8.5 -1.9 3.2 9.3 11.3 14.3 14.0 9.2 3.7 3.0 -3.1 3.4 1984 -5.2 -4.8 0.4 4.2 6.9 12.0 16.7 13.5 11.0 5.2 1.9 -5.0 4.7 1985 -5.2 -5.1 -4.4 5.5 9.2 12.4 15.2 14.8 10.7 4.2 2.7 -2.7 4.8 1986 -5.4 -3.1 -0.3 6.9 6.8 11.6 16.8 15.2 11.7 7.2 0.7 -5.6 5.2 1987 -3.9 -1.7 -1.8 2.7 9.9 13.6 15.3 14.3 10.4 5.0 0.5 -1.9 5.2 1988 -6.5 -4.2 0.2 4.2 8.1 11.4 16.2 15.1 10.3 6.5 -0.6 -3.6 4.8 1989 -11.4 -11.8 0.6 6.7 9.0 12.5 17.2 15.5 10.1 7.7 2.7 -3.2 4.6 1990 -7.8 -4.3 -0.8 4.0 8.0 12.1 16.3 14.5 9.9 6.0 1.7 -3.7 4.6 1991 -6.6 -5.8 0.3 5.3 7.4 12.4 16.4 16.7 10.5 7.3 1.4 -5.2 5.0 1992 -9.9 -6.5 -3.9 3.6 7.3 12.3 15.2 14.6 9.8 5.0 0.5 -3.7 3.7 1993 -8.6 -7.6 -2.6 4.2 8.3 11.6 15.9 15.1 10.4 5.5 0.8 -2.9 4.2 1994 -3.8 -3.8 0.8 6.2 8.0 12.7 16.3 15.3 11.1 6.5 1.8 -4.8 5.5 1995 -3.7 -1.9 0.3 4.4 9.7 12.6 15.8 15.1 11.4 4.4 0.5 -4.0 5.4 1996 -2.9 -2.5 -0.2 3.8 9.7 12.6 17.2 14.8 10.7 4.4 0.5 -4.0 5.3 1997 -4.5 -6.8 -2.9 4.0 9.1 13.5 16.1 15.5 10.3 6.1 0.6 0.2 5.1 1998 -6.6 -5.6 -0.7 6.0 9.7 15.4 17.3 16.4 12.4 7.0 2.0 -2.5 5.9 1999 -2.4 -2.6 0.2 4.8 9.1 14.1 14.0 18.0 11.6 6.0 3.1 -0.1 6.3 2000 -4.8 -3.0 1.5 4.6 8.0 12.8 10.0 17.6 12.0 7.1 1.2 -2.4 5.4

Appendix 9 Wind speed (Urumieh synoptic weather station)

UUUVIII MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave 1969 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.9 2.6 1970 1.2 2.8 4.2 4.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 4.9 4.9 5.0 3.3 3.6 4.2 1971 2.5 2.6 6.8 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.4 5.9 2.1 3.2 4.5 1972 2.7 2.7 1.9 4.8 3.6 4.1 8.8 4.6 4.6 3.6 2.5 3.4 3.9 1973 3.1 3.9 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.8 4.9 5.7 4.9 4.0 3.5 3.2 5.1 1974 1.8 2.1 4.0 6.5 5.8 5.7 4.4 4.0 4.4 3.4 3.1 2.7 4.0 1975 2.4 3.1 5.0 4.9 4.2 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.2 3.1 2.7 2.9 4.0 1976 3.6 4.2 2.4 5.3 3.8 3.6 3.7 2.6 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.3 3.3 1977 1.1 1.0 4.3 4.4 2.4 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 2.8 1.4 1.9 2.8 1978 1.6 2.7 4.6 5.9 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.1 4.6 2.9 2.1 1.1 3.6 1979 0.9 2.0 2.0 5.2 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.0 4.5 2.1 1.5 1.0 2.4 1980 1.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 2.0 1.5 2.6 1981 0.8 1.9 2.7 4.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.3 1.9 2.8 1.2 2.7 1982 2.4 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 2.6 1983 0.7 1.3 3.1 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.4 2.1 1984 0.4 1.0 1.9 4.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.6 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1985 0.4 3.9 1.5 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 1986 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.7 1.7 1.8 1987 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.4 1988 1.4 1.7 3.2 2.8 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.0 1.4 2.3 1.2 2.4 1989 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.9 0.5 2.2 1990 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 1991 0.7 1.5 1.4 2.9 3.7 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.9 1992 1.6 2.4 2.2 3.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 2.2 1993 1.2 0.8 2.3 3.9 3.0 3.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 2.0 1994 0.5 1.7 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1995 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.0 4.2 2.8 2.3 1996 2.3 3.3 2.2 4.2 3.1 3.9 2.7 3.1 3.3 2.9 6.1 4.1 3.4 1997 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 1998 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.3 1999 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.2 2000 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.9

Appendix 10 Precipitation (Urumieh synoptic weather station)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave

UUUIX MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

1969 75.5 19.0 128.7 123.7 66.4 29.0 3.1 2.4 22.2 44.6 14.0 43.8 572.4 1970 47.1 6.4 38.1 40.1 22.2 0.0 11.0 0.0 3.0 7.2 30.1 31.1 236.3 1971 12.9 21.2 6.2 84.0 34.6 2.4 3.2 0.0 0.0 12.5 43.3 55.6 275.9 1972 26.0 40.3 57.2 32.9 138.9 39.3 0.5 3.8 0.0 9.3 63.2 37.9 449.3 1973 43.9 28.6 16.0 57.6 61.2 42.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 6.4 10.0 269.0 1974 26.0 14.4 154.6 66.2 17.0 17.8 47.1 4.0 12.8 0.5 18.2 11.2 389.8 1975 10.4 30.6 3.9 53.0 71.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 20.6 19.0 9.2 60.0 286.7 1976 13.0 30.7 24.9 70.3 122.7 10.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 34.3 26.0 16.1 352.3 1977 50.0 14.0 113.0 53.2 76.0 15.3 0.7 8.1 2.0 25.0 41.0 91.1 489.4 1978 37.3 44.2 33.4 10.0 44.0 22.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.6 71.8 24.9 291.7 1979 43.7 24.6 25.5 90.1 24.6 41.6 0.0 3.0 0.2 12.4 4.6 43.2 313.5 1980 19.1 38.0 56.0 76.1 25.0 16.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 17.0 51.8 31.5 337.5 1981 53.7 28.2 43.7 86.7 41.4 15.6 3.0 2.0 0.0 16.3 54.3 29.4 374.3 1982 29.4 17.1 61.6 35.4 61.1 6.8 1.1 0.0 2.8 95.2 132.1 7.1 449.7 1983 18.7 7.0 15.7 25.6 63.3 15.0 1.0 9.0 3.8 1.4 30.8 19.2 210.5 1984 11.3 30.0 26.5 14.4 10.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.2 95.8 18.2 315.3 1985 26.2 32.9 63.0 41.5 28.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 32.5 15.3 251.3 1986 11.0 49.3 104.8 65.5 41.9 47.4 13.2 1.0 2.0 41.9 63.8 26.1 467.9 1987 0.0 51.3 32.3 36.1 5.2 3.2 0.0 1.0 0.9 90.3 20.0 117.4 357.7 1988 36.5 45.2 61.2 23.0 22.7 21.5 6.2 23.6 0.0 37.2 13.4 38.9 329.4 1989 11.9 7.8 54.0 12.8 24.5 0.7 0.0 2.0 0.4 91.9 53.3 9.0 268.3 1990 38.9 21.2 26.7 56.8 12.3 0.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 14.1 4.0 47.7 226.3 1991 0.6 24.1 81.3 37.1 16.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 17.0 90.5 284.0 1992 17.2 33.1 19.8 71.8 99.0 14.8 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 56.4 22.2 340.9 1993 26.7 46.2 71.3 105.5 127.9 16.4 11.0 2.9 0.0 10.2 79.0 45.4 542.5 1994 62.4 53.9 51.2 107.3 57.4 42.1 0.0 0.0 30.7 22.0 136.0 16.5 579.5 1995 26.8 41.0 21.0 120.2 23.0 16.2 24.3 0.0 11.4 7.0 38.7 7.8 337.4 1996 42.4 41.1 31.3 53.3 44.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 17.0 7.0 30.2 268.0 1997 39.0 6.5 57.0 28.1 35.4 29.2 25.7 0.0 0.0 13.5 76.6 25.0 336.0 1998 30.8 26.0 68.0 27.2 27.0 26.0 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 6.0 257.0 1999 55.5 16.0 14.0 31.7 50.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 2.5 38.5 32.0 242.5 2000 4.2 15.7 30.0 29.5 20.0 0.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 12.7 32.1 33.3 190.4

Appendix 11 Sunshine Duration(Urumieh synoptic weather station)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1969 1.8 2.7 3.5 5.6 8.2 11.5 11.8 11.2 9.2 5.0 6.5 5.5

UUUX MODELLING IMPACT OF CHANGE IN IRRIGATED LANDS ON RIVERS DISCHARGE AND RECHARGE OF LAKE URUMIEH

1970 3.6 7.0 4.5 6.6 10.0 12.6 11.5 11.4 10.4 8.8 6.3 2.2 1971 1.3 6.8 5.5 5.5 9.2 11.4 12.2 11.6 10.7 8.1 5.1 4.6 1972 3.2 5.0 4.3 6.9 6.7 11.2 12.2 10.5 10.0 7.3 5.4 3.5 1973 3.2 4.4 6.0 6.6 9.4 11.6 12.4 11.6 10.7 8.1 6.5 5.6 1974 1.2 2.8 1.7 7.1 11.1 11.9 10.8 11.4 9.3 8.9 6.7 4.2 1975 4.6 5.2 7.9 8.6 8.6 11.7 12.2 11.2 8.7 7.7 5.9 3.3 1976 4.6 5.0 5.7 4.9 7.5 11.9 12.1 10.4 9.2 6.4 6.8 2.3 1977 2.8 6.1 5.0 4.8 8.8 12.8 12.3 11.4 12.3 7.6 6.2 4.7 1978 4.7 4.9 5.8 5.6 8.0 12.1 11.9 11.0 10.4 7.7 5.9 4.1 1979 5.1 5.5 5.3 5.9 9.6 10.9 12.7 12.2 11.3 7.7 5.0 5.1 1980 4.4 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.3 11.6 11.9 10.9 10.3 8.0 6.2 5.3 1981 3.2 5.2 7.4 7.8 8.9 10.7 11.7 11.5 10.1 7.5 6.1 3.7 1982 3.8 5.0 6.6 6.2 7.1 11.4 11.4 11.2 8.9 5.1 3.0 1.2 1983 3.7 3.7 6.4 6.6 6.3 10.6 12.1 10.9 9.7 7.8 4.3 3.6 1984 5.5 4.3 5.3 7.4 6.4 10.6 10.5 10.8 10.4 7.8 3.7 2.2 1985 1.5 5.1 5.9 7.3 9.9 12.5 12.0 11.4 10.5 8.5 6.0 3.6 1986 4.8 5.1 4.7 5.6 9.4 10.3 11.6 11.0 9.7 7.3 2.7 5.6 1987 6.5 5.2 5.3 8.1 9.3 10.8 11.7 10.4 9.1 4.6 6.6 3.5 1988 2.7 3.6 6.9 5.9 11.0 10.7 11.4 10.0 10.5 6.9 6.8 5.0 1989 4.0 5.1 4.7 9.2 10.4 12.2 12.0 11.3 0.3 6.8 4.9 5.3 1990 4.9 4.0 6.6 7.4 10.5 12.8 11.8 11.6 10.9 7.6 6.9 4.4 1991 3.6 5.7 4.2 7.7 9.6 11.4 11.9 10.7 10.6 6.7 5.4 2.9 1992 5.1 5.8 6.8 7.4 6.0 9.9 12.2 10.9 9.8 8.0 6.3 4.2 1993 3.5 4.6 6.8 6.2 7.0 11.7 12.1 11.5 10.3 10.5 6.3 4.5 1994 4.9 4.9 6.3 8.1 9.9 11.1 12.7 11.8 9.5 7.6 5.4 5.0 1995 5.2 6.4 8.1 4.2 8.0 10.2 12.5 12.1 9.8 8.8 7.6 5.3 1996 4.8 4.2 6.0 7.2 8.7 12.4 11.8 9.2 11.1 7.0 6.1 4.7 1997 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.6 8.2 10.9 12.1 11.6 10.8 7.3 5.9 4.1 1998 4.7 5.8 7.0 8.0 8.8 12.8 11.4 11.7 8.7 6.3 6.4 4.5 1999 4.1 4.0 7.2 5.9 7.6 12.1 11.6 11.2 10.1 8.2 6.3 4.1 2000 4.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.7 10.8 12.3 12.5 11.1 7.6 4.9 3.3

UUUXI