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Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay

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Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay THIS PUBLICATION WAS PREPARED UNDER A PARTNERSHIP BY © Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay January 2012 Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay 1st Edition Prepared by The Nature Conservancy, WWF-Brazil With support from Pantanal Research Centre (CPP)/Sinergia, TNC Latin America (TNC/LAR), Caterpillar, HSBC, WWF-Bolivia and WWF-Paraguay Associated partners Embrapa Pantanal and Ecoa Brasília, Brazil 2012 WWF-BRAZIL CEO Maria Cecília Wey de Brito Conservation Director Carlos Alberto de Mattos Scaramuzza Cerrado-Pantanal Programme Programme Coordinator Michael Becker Water for Life Programme Programme Coordinator Samuel Barreto Landscape Ecology Laboratory Coordinator Sidney Rodrigues THE NATURE CONSERVANCY Country Representative for Brazil Ana Cristina Fialho Barros Atlantic Forest and Central Savannas Conservation Programme Programme Director João Santo Campari Atlantic Forest and Central Savannas Conservation Programme’s Freshwater Strategy Coordenador Albano Araújo PRODUCTION CREDITS Supporting Team Authors Adolfo Moreno (WWF-Bolívia) Paulo Petry (TNC) Angelo J. R. Lima (WWF-Brazil) Sidney T. Rodrigues (WWF-Brazil) Anita Diederichsen (TNC) Mario Barroso Ramos Neto (WWF-Brazil) Bart Wickel (WWF-US) Marcelo H. Matsumoto (TNC) Cesar Balbuena (WWF-Paraguay) Glauco Kimura (WWF-Brazil) Claudia T. Callil (Federal University of Mato Grosso – UFMT) Michael Becker (WWF-Brazil) Débora F. Calheiros (Embrapa Pantanal) Pamela Rebolledo (WWF-Bolivia) Federico Monte Domeq (IPH- Sinergia) Albano Araújo (TNC) Juan Jose Neiff (CECOAL/CONICET Argentina) Bernardo Caldas De Oliveira (WWF-Brazil) Leandro Baumgarten (TNC) Mariana da Silva Soares (WWF-Brazil) Leon Merlot (FCB- Bolivia) Magaly Gonzales de Oliveira (WWF-Brazil) Lucy Aquino (WWF-Paraguay) João Guimarães (TNC) Lunalva Schwenk (Federal University of Mato Grosso – UFMT) Peter Zeilhofer (Federal University of Mato Grosso – UFMT) Technical Review Pierre Girard (Sinergia) Carlos Padovani (Embrapa Pantanal) Samuel Roiphe Barreto (WWF-Brazil) International data for cataloguing in publication (CIP) A532 Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Paraguay/ Petry, Paulo; Rodrigues, Sidney...[et al.]; The Nature Conservancy; WWF-Brazil. Brasilia, DF: The Nature Conservancy Brazil, October 2011. 54 pages; First edition 1. Ecological Risk 2. Paraguay River Basin 3. Regional Vulnerability 4. Climate Change ISBN 978-85-60797-10-3 CDD – Contents Introduction - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 06 Background - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 09 Scope - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10 Methods - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15 Ecological Risk Index – ERI - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16 Steps of the ERI - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 18 Hydrological analyses - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 22 Results - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 24 Discussion and Recommendations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 38 Conclusions - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 50 Bibliography - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 53 Introduction This publication provides the results of an ecological risk assessment for the Paraguay River Basin, which is the fi rst step to establish regional vulnerability to climate change and serves as an input for the discussion on which risks could become more severe in the future. WWF-BOLÍVIA/VICTOR MAGALLANES 6 7 The ecological risk assessment adresses at the current non-climate stresses. In the vulnerability assessment, stresses related to the effects of global climate change are considered and assessed in terms of their synergistic interaction with current stresses. The purpose of this study is to identify the status of the ecological components that ensure integrity of aquatic ecosystems in the basin. This assessment will inform the governments of the four countries that share the basin, as well as civil society organisations so that they can develop a climate change adaptation agenda for the Pantanal Wetlands and work on its implementation with a view to enhancing resilience1 and minimizing the basin’s vulnerability. The findings in this study could also support integrated, cross border management of water resources. Despite its ecological and economic importance, the aquatic environments in the Paraguay River Basin are under constant threat of degradation, especially in the highlands and plateaus around the Pantanal, where the most important rivers that sustain the life in the fl oodplain originate in the Cerrado. Thus it is fundamentally important to learn how threats – whether individually or in conjunction with other threats – affect aquatic systems ecological integrity since climate change is certain to increase the intensity and frequency of fl oods or droughts, for instance. This study is intended to enhance the understanding that the unique features of the Paraguay River Basin depend on the correlation between the highlands and the plain. Therefore, any actions that could have an impact on the hydrological systems in the highlands have impacts on the plain as a consequence. Any negative impacts on the highlands – where the headwater of rivers that fl ow into the plain are located – transfer problems from upstream to downstream in the basin. © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO© GAMBARINI 1 Resilience means the ability of an ecosystem to recover and restore its original conditions and functions after alterations in the environment, such as drought, fl ood, fi re, or deforestation. © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO© GAMBARINI We must bear in mind that the Paraguay River Basin is home to the largest fl oodplain in the planet – the Pantanal – where the annual cycles of fl oods and droughts dictate the lives of thousands of species. The seasonal variation in water levels imposes natural limits on large scale human settlement in the area. The basin covers the extensive plains of Chaco and part of © TNC-ALBANO ARAÚJO the Andes Mountain Range, and it is exposed to severe drought spells due to the prevailing arid climate. Beef cattle production has been one of the most traditional economic activities in the Pantanal for over two centuries. However, yields are low if compared with the upper located in the Cerrado. This is because during the fl ood season the fl ooded pasture lands the cattle is forced to seek shelter on and other species, and more sense to preserve a higher lands. As a result, with the help of aquatic part of this region than fully cattle ranchers have no plants, purifi es the waters convert it into livestock and extensive pasture lands for and attracts a myriad of crop areas, whose estimated a period of the year, which is waterfowl in search for food. annual earnings would a problem since large tracts total only US$ 414 million. of land are required for this Every year, such natural This is particularly so due business to be viable. wealth attracts nearly one to the fact that ecosystem million tourists who come services benefi t the wider On the other hand, the to experience wildlife and society, while agricultural receding and fl ooding cycle to engage in sport fi shing. earnings only go to ranchers/ accounts for the ecological A recent study by Moraes growers and some of the wealth of the region and (2008) estimates that people directly or indirectly for high value ecosystem ecosystem services in involved in the business with services, such as fertilisation the Pantanal amount to US$ the remainder of society of fi elds. It also provides 112 billion (approximately only benefi ting from the optimal conditions for R$ 180 billion) annually. consumption of associated the reproduction of fi sh Therefore, it may make much products. 8 9 Background This report is part of the This report is also part of the Synergy Project has Iniciativa Água e Clima the Synergy Project, which a network of integrated (Water and Climate Initiative), is managed by the Pantanal research and management which is the result of a global Research Centre (CPP) for the Paraguay River Basin partnership between the and is intended to develop – the Synergy Network – WWF Network and HSBC to climate change scenarios for which brings together over support adaptation of river the Pantanal until 2100. The ten research institutions basins to climate change. CPP is a Mato Grosso based and approximately 40 Likewise, the Aliança dos Civil Society Organization researchers. The Network Grandes Rios (Great Rivers of Public Interest (OSCIP, in held international meetings Alliance) is the culmination the Portuguese acronym) involving Brazil, Bolivia, of a partnership between devoted to promoting Argentina and Paraguay The Nature Conservancy the welfare of Pantanal to establish six research (TNC) and the Caterpillar dwellers and environmental topics and nine projects Foundation, whose goal is sustainability in the for implementation, to change management of region. With support from including the ecological major river basins
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