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Ecological Risk Assessment for the River Basin , , and Paraguay

January 2012

Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay

1st Edition

Prepared by The Nature Conservancy, WWF-Brazil

With support from Research Centre (CPP)/Sinergia, TNC Latin America (TNC/LAR), Caterpillar, HSBC, WWF-Bolivia and WWF-Paraguay

Associated partners Embrapa Pantanal and Ecoa

Brasília, Brazil 2012 WWF-BRAZIL CEO Maria Cecília Wey de Brito Conservation Director Carlos Alberto de Mattos Scaramuzza Cerrado-Pantanal Programme Programme Coordinator Michael Becker Water for Life Programme Programme Coordinator Samuel Barreto Landscape Ecology Laboratory Coordinator Sidney Rodrigues

THE NATURE CONSERVANCY Country Representative for Brazil Ana Cristina Fialho Barros Atlantic Forest and Central Savannas Conservation Programme Programme Director João Santo Campari Atlantic Forest and Central Savannas Conservation Programme’s Freshwater Strategy Coordenador Albano Araújo

PRODUCTION CREDITS Supporting Team Authors Adolfo Moreno (WWF-Bolívia) Paulo Petry (TNC) Angelo J. R. Lima (WWF-Brazil) Sidney T. Rodrigues (WWF-Brazil) Anita Diederichsen (TNC) Mario Barroso Ramos Neto (WWF-Brazil) Bart Wickel (WWF-US) Marcelo H. Matsumoto (TNC) Cesar Balbuena (WWF-Paraguay) Glauco Kimura (WWF-Brazil) Claudia T. Callil (Federal University of – UFMT) Michael Becker (WWF-Brazil) Débora F. Calheiros (Embrapa Pantanal) Pamela Rebolledo (WWF-Bolivia) Federico Monte Domeq (IPH- Sinergia) Albano Araújo (TNC) Juan Jose Neiff (CECOAL/CONICET Argentina) Bernardo Caldas De Oliveira (WWF-Brazil) Leandro Baumgarten (TNC) Mariana da Silva Soares (WWF-Brazil) Leon Merlot (FCB- Bolivia) Magaly Gonzales de Oliveira (WWF-Brazil) Lucy Aquino (WWF-Paraguay) João Guimarães (TNC) Lunalva Schwenk (Federal University of Mato Grosso – UFMT) Peter Zeilhofer (Federal University of Mato Grosso – UFMT) Technical Review Pierre Girard (Sinergia) Carlos Padovani (Embrapa Pantanal) Samuel Roiphe Barreto (WWF-Brazil)

International data for cataloguing in publication (CIP)

A532 Ecological Risk Assessment for the Paraguay River Basin: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Paraguay/ Petry, Paulo; Rodrigues, Sidney...[et al.]; The Nature Conservancy; WWF-Brazil. Brasilia, DF: The Nature Conservancy Brazil, October 2011.

54 pages; First edition

1. Ecological Risk 2. Paraguay River Basin 3. Regional Vulnerability 4. Climate Change

ISBN 978-85-60797-10-3 CDD – Contents

Introduction ------06

Background ------09

Scope ------10

Methods ------15

Ecological Risk Index – ERI ------16

Steps of the ERI ------18

Hydrological analyses ------22

Results ------24

Discussion and Recommendations ------38

Conclusions ------50

Bibliography ------53 Introduction

This publication provides the results of an ecological risk assessment for the Paraguay River Basin, which is the fi rst step to establish regional vulnerability to climate change and serves as an input for the discussion on which risks could become more severe in the future. WWF-BOLÍVIA/VICTOR MAGALLANES WWF-BOLÍVIA/VICTOR 6 7

The ecological risk assessment adresses at the current non-climate stresses. In the vulnerability assessment, stresses related to the effects of global climate change are considered and assessed in terms of their synergistic interaction with current stresses.

The purpose of this study is to identify the status of the ecological components that ensure integrity of aquatic ecosystems in the basin. This assessment will inform the governments of the four countries that share the basin, as well as civil society organisations so that they can develop a climate change adaptation agenda for the Pantanal and work on its implementation with a view to enhancing resilience1 and minimizing the basin’s vulnerability. The findings in this study could also support integrated, cross border management of water resources.

Despite its ecological and economic importance, the aquatic environments in the Paraguay River Basin are under constant threat of degradation, especially in the highlands and plateaus around the Pantanal, where the most important rivers that sustain the life in the fl oodplain originate in the Cerrado. Thus it is fundamentally important to learn how threats – whether individually or in conjunction with other threats – affect aquatic systems ecological integrity since climate change is certain to increase the intensity and frequency of fl oods or droughts, for instance.

This study is intended to enhance the understanding that the unique features of the Paraguay River Basin depend on the correlation between the highlands and the plain. Therefore, any actions that could have an impact on the hydrological systems in the highlands have impacts on the plain as a consequence. Any negative impacts on the highlands – where the headwater of rivers that fl ow into the plain are located – transfer problems from upstream to downstream in the basin. © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO GAMBARINI © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO

1 Resilience means the ability of an ecosystem to recover and restore its original conditions and functions after alterations in the environment, such as drought, fl ood, fi re, or deforestation. © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO GAMBARINI © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO

We must bear in mind that the Paraguay River Basin is home to the largest fl oodplain in the planet – the Pantanal – where the annual cycles of fl oods and droughts dictate the lives of thousands of species. The seasonal variation in water levels imposes natural limits on large scale human settlement in the area. The basin covers the extensive plains of and part of ARAÚJO © TNC-ALBANO the Andes Mountain Range, and it is exposed to severe drought spells due to the prevailing arid climate.

Beef cattle production has been one of the most traditional economic activities in the Pantanal for over two centuries. However, yields are low if compared with the upper located in the Cerrado. This is because during the fl ood season the fl ooded pasture lands the cattle is forced to seek shelter on and other species, and more sense to preserve a higher lands. As a result, with the help of aquatic part of this region than fully cattle ranchers have no plants, purifi es the waters convert it into livestock and extensive pasture lands for and attracts a myriad of crop areas, whose estimated a period of the year, which is waterfowl in search for food. annual earnings would a problem since large tracts total only US$ 414 million. of land are required for this Every year, such natural This is particularly so due business to be viable. wealth attracts nearly one to the fact that ecosystem million tourists who come services benefi t the wider On the other hand, the to experience wildlife and society, while agricultural receding and fl ooding cycle to engage in sport fi shing. earnings only go to ranchers/ accounts for the ecological A recent study by Moraes growers and some of the wealth of the region and (2008) estimates that people directly or indirectly for high value ecosystem ecosystem services in involved in the business with services, such as fertilisation the Pantanal amount to US$ the remainder of society of fi elds. It also provides 112 billion (approximately only benefi ting from the optimal conditions for R$ 180 billion) annually. consumption of associated the reproduction of fi sh Therefore, it may make much products. 8 9

Background

This report is part of the This report is also part of the Synergy Project has Iniciativa Água e Clima the Synergy Project, which a network of integrated (Water and Climate Initiative), is managed by the Pantanal research and management which is the result of a global Research Centre (CPP) for the Paraguay River Basin partnership between the and is intended to develop – the Synergy Network – WWF Network and HSBC to climate change scenarios for which brings together over support adaptation of river the Pantanal until 2100. The ten research institutions basins to climate change. CPP is a Mato Grosso based and approximately 40 Likewise, the Aliança dos Civil Society Organization researchers. The Network Grandes Rios (Great Rivers of Public Interest (OSCIP, in held international meetings Alliance) is the culmination the Portuguese acronym) involving Brazil, Bolivia, of a partnership between devoted to promoting Argentina and Paraguay The Nature Conservancy the welfare of Pantanal to establish six research (TNC) and the Caterpillar dwellers and environmental topics and nine projects Foundation, whose goal is sustainability in the for implementation, to change management of region. With support from including the ecological major river basins around the the National Council for risk assessment for the world by developing a new Scientifi c and Technological Paraguay River Basin2. sustainability model for those Development (CNPq), large aquatic systems.

To that end, WWF-Brazil and TNC have partnered in order to identify the environmental risks in the Paraguay River Basin using an approach developed by Mattson &

Angermeier (2007). This © TNC-REBECCATHARME method is based on a multi- criteria participatory approach that takes into consideration knowledge of the basin by local stakeholders – an ecological risk index is developed according to the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, their frequency in the basin and the basin’s sensitivity to them.

1

2 www.portalsinergia.org.br Scope

From its source, in the area of , Mato Grosso, Brazil, to its confl uence with the Paraná River in , Argentina, the Paraguay River extends for over 2,600 kilometres. The drainage area covers more than 1,135,000 square kilometres (sq km), which is equivalent to more than 800 combined Itaipu reservoirs, or 35 times the territory of Portugal; it covers parts of Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina (Figure 1).

There are wide altitude variations across the basin – the highest areas lie on the western side, in the Andes, over 4,500 meters above sea level, while the lowest point is in the confl uence with the Paraná River, 50 meters above sea level.

The climate in the basin varies signifi cantly, and it becomes increasingly dry and seasonal east/west and north/south. The climate is tropical in the north and northeast, with abundant rains during the summer and drought spells lasting three to four months. In the southeast, the climate is predominantly subtropical with cold fronts in winter. The mid south and southeast areas have a dry climate with strong seasonality in rainfall patterns. As the topography rises along the eastern edge of the Andes, humidity falls and in the top portion the climate is primarily Figure 1. Location of the Paraguay River Basin in South America. semi desert. 10 11

The main sources of water for the Paraguay River are the tributaries along its left bank, such as the Rivers Cuiabá, São Lourenço, Taquari, and Miranda. Their headwaters are located in the adjacent highlands and all of them drain into the Pantanal Wetlands. On the right bank, the main tributaries are the Rivers Pilcomayo and Bermejo, both with their headwaters in the Andean region.

Between 2006 and 2008, of which in South America. management of biodiversity the WWF Network and This research fi lled a gap in aquatic ecoregions was TNC led a collaboration of information on the added to Brazil’s National with several other research distribution patterns of Water Resources Plan. Two organizations to develop a aquatic biodiversity on the major aquatic ecoregions are global map that identifi ed planet, which is much larger represented in the Paraguay 426 aquatic ecoregions3 than terrestrial biodiversity. River Basin – Chaco and (Abell, R. et al. 2008), 50 In 2006, a chapter on the Paraguay (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Aquatic ecoregions in the Paraguay River Basin: Chaco and Paraguay. 1 3 An aquatic ecoregion is a large area comprised of one or more freshwater ecosystems that share water species and environmental conditions and patterns, making up a protected area that sets it apart from other ecoregions. As far as terrestrial ecoregions are concerned, the Paraguay River Basin occupies a part of seven ecoregions where unique ecosystems have been shaped by climate, topography and soil type. Covering 46% of its area, the main ecoregion in the basin is the , which is formed mainly by open forests that lose their leaves during the dry season, while the ecoregions in the Cerrado and Pantanal cover 18% and 14% of the basin, respectively. The remaining 22% are covered by the High Andes, Chiquitano Forest, Atlantic Forest, and the Yungas (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Distribution of terrestrial ecoregions in the Paraguay River Basin.

Although 75% of the basin is still covered by native vegetation, some ecoregions are heavily threatened by human activity. The best examples are the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest, where 54% and 48% of the land has been deforested, respectively. About 11% (123,600 sq km) of the basin are protected in some way, and only 5% (56,800 sq km) are fully protected within national or state parks and ecological stations. Despite being the most endangered area, the Cerrado is one of the least protected areas, with only 2% of its land under full protection (Table 1 and Figure 4).

In addition, more than 170 protected areas are not evenly distributed across the ecoregions, and their layout does not take into account any biodiversity considerations. The Brazilian government has been making efforts to discuss the issue in meetings with experts and through initiatives leading to different proposals for new protected areas and reorganisation of existing areas in the Cerrado and Pantanal Wetlands. 12 13

Table 1 – Conservation status of terrestrial ecoregions in the Paraguay River Basin Ecoregions Area (sq km) Remnant area % Chaco 518.099 433.443 84 Cerrado 207.825 95.921 46 Pantanal 160.505 146.212 91 Andes 89.339 83.612 94 Chiquitano Forest 72.339 53.322 74 Atlantic Forest 45.441 23.403 52 Andean Yungas 42.445 38.175 90 TOTAL 1.135.992 874.089 77

500000

400000

300000

Area (sq km) Area 200000 Remnant Area 100000 Converted Area

0 Chaco Cerrado Pantanal Andes Chiquitano Atlantic Andean Forest Forest Yungas

Figure 4. Conservation status of terrestrial ecoregions in the Paraguay River Basin.

The basin is home to over 8 million people, with seven out of ten living in urban areas. The largest population concentration is in the Metropolitan Area of Asunción, Paraguay, with over 2 million inhabitants. Cuiabá (Mato Grosso), San Salvador de Jujuy (Argentina), Potosí and Tarija (Bolivia) are also major urban areas, but there are large “population blanks”, such as the central region of the Pantanal and north-western Gran Chaco.

The main economic activity is agriculture, with more than 30 million head of cattle and nearly 7 million hectares of croplands. There are multiple approaches to livestock management, ranging from the most rudimentary, such as extensive cattle ranching, to more technology intensive methods involving feedlots and a high degree of genetic improvement. Similarly, in the river basin region traditional and precision crop farming areas exist side by side, with the latter benefi tting from large amounts of inputs and providing high yields. Besides agriculture, the basin has key mining areas, in particular Andean regions such as that of Potosí (Bolivia), which provides natural gas and lies in the transition area between Chaco and the Andes; Mato Grosso, where gold and diamonds are prospected; and also , where iron, manganese and limestone can be found.

The Paraguay River is navigable during a portion of the year, from Cáceres (Mato Grosso) to the confl uence with the Paraná River and along the latter up to the mouth of the Plata River and into the Atlantic Ocean. This waterway was traditionally used for passenger traffi c, but now it concentrates the transport of ore and grains. A discussion has been ongoing since the 1990s to make navigation a constant activity throughout the year in the upper stretch of the river, which would require dredging, construction of canals and dikes, and straightening of the river bed. All of this would severely affect water patterns and survival of aquatic species in the Pantanal fl oodplain. Despite these potential impacts, there is constant pressure to push through these changes. © DAVID HARRISON/TNC © DAVID Hydroelectric plants have a signifi cant presence in the basin, and the potential for energy generation is high, especially for Small Hydroelectric Power Plants (SHPs). There are currently 8 large Hydroelectric Power Plants (UHEs, > 30 MW); 7 very small Hydroelectric Power Plants (CGH, up to 1 MW) and 16 small Hydroelectric Power Plants (SHPs, 1-30 MW), generating around 850 MW – about 1% of the total hydropower-based generation in Brazil. On the Brazilian area alone, nearly 70 new energy projects are underway, including plants under construction and undergoing the licensing and assessment process. About 70% of hydropower capacity in the basin is already in use. 14 15

Methods

The purpose of nature conservation planning is to inform actions meant to preserve a representative and functional set of ecosystems that ensures the long-term existence of animal and plant species and the products resulting from environmental services while minimising confl icts between the different legitimate interests of the production sector and society in general.

This process depends on the minimise adverse impacts, activity, for instance, ecological assessment of the whether by adopting increases soil erosion and areas to establish which are, rehabilitation measures or sediment load into the water or are not, essential to the acting quickly to prevent since the protective function health of ecosystems and its degradation. Human of the riparian forest is lost. for maintaining biodiversity. activities cause changes As a result, the sediments However, because of in the environment that carried by water cause the the scarce resources for usually affect the integrity decline or disappearance conservation, it is also of ecosystems, leading of aquatic plants and necessary to assess the to reduced populations algae that rely on light for degree of ecological risk or extinction of plant and photosynthesis. With the involved in these areas in animal species at local level, removal of trees, less fruit order to establish where reduced water quality and will fall, thus reducing the conservation actions have other ecosystem services supply of energy and food the best chance of success. that are important to society. for fish, which could affect the size of their populations Understanding the ecological Evidence shows that or even drive them to risks in an area also helps complete removal of natural extinction, especially to defi ne the sort of action vegetation along river those that depend on a necessary to avoid or banks, due to agricultural particular food. Ecological Risk Index – ERI

Given this context, a method for assessing the level of risk to the integrity of aquatic ecosystems is necessary. According to Karr et al. (1986) and Mattson & Angermeier (2007), at least fi ve functional aspects should be considered in determining the ecological risk and should these be altered, they could seriously undermine the integrity of aquatic ecosystems (Figure 5):

I. Sources of energy;

II. Hydrologic Regime;

III. Water quality;

IV. Biotic interactions; and

V. Physical structure of habitats.

Sources of Energy Organic Matter Trophic Chains Physical Quality Water Quality Chemical Quality

Introduction of Integrity of Biotic Interactions Exotic Species Aquatic Ecosystems Migration

Geometry of Canal Habitat Structure Riparian Vegetation Hydrologic Regime Timing Speed Quantity

Figure 5. Ecological integrity of aquatic ecosystems and their key attributes. Modifi ed from Karr et al. (1986) and Mattson & Angermeier (2007). 16 17

Assessment of the degree of risk to a given it can vary depending on the ecosystem itself. ecosystem may take into account the For example, a stressor such as pollution following variables: from oil spills will cause more damage to still or slow fl owing aquatic ecosystems, such as I. The severity of a given stressor and a fl oodplain (where it will tend to accumulate) the degree of alteration or potential than in ecosystems with faster fl ows, such disturbance that this may cause to the as river rapids, which tend to dissipate the individual functional aspects considered; pollutant. That said, an additional variable was considered: II. The frequency with which a given stressor causes alteration or disturbance in III. The level of sensitivity of the individual functional aspects. ecosystems in relation to a particular stressor. Based on this theoretical framework, Mattson & Angermeier (2007) proposed the Ecological This variable can lessen or magnify the Risk Index (ERI), which is used to assess the severity of a given stressor depending on the stress to which a particular ecosystem or level of resistance of the ecosystem to its area is subjected. The ERI makes it possible impact, which yields the Ecological Risk Index to identify which areas have the highest level (ERI). It can be expressed as follows: of ecological risk for a particular type or set of stressors and to guide conservation decisions IRI = F × S × Z and actions. For example, it can reveal the (i) (i) (i) (i) (j) essence of a particular area – whether it is (i) = stressor ID pristine and should be protected, or if its level (j) = ecosystem ID of degradation prevent rehabilitation actions from being taken. It also helps determine F(i) = frequency of stressor ‘i’ the main stress factors in a given region S(i) = severity of stressor ‘i’ and indicates targeted actions that are most Z(i) = sensitivity of ecosystem ‘j’ to stressor ‘i’. effective in mitigating these stress factors. Based on the ERI, it is also possible to Therefore, the ERI is the result of a combination calculate the Composite Ecological Risk Index of the severity level of a given stressor as (C ERI) which is the sum of all ERIs for the defi ned above and the number of occurrences individual stressors. It allows an integrated (frequency) of this stressor in the location view of the risks to the individual basins. considered. Its mathematical representation can be expressed as follows: The mathematical representation of a C ERI can be expressed as follows:

IRI (i) = F(i) × S(i) C ERI (k) = ∑ ERI (i) (k) (i) = stressor ID F (i) = frequency of stressor ‘i’ in the basin (i)= stressor ID considered. (k) = ID of the river basin or area considered S (i) = severity of stressor ‘i’ in the basin considered. In short, the ERI is a tool for decision makers, an aggregate indicator that makes it easier An important observation is that the for non experts to understand the problems magnitude of the impact caused by a given allowing for more targeted and effective stressor is not always the same everywhere – actions to fi ght degradation of nature. Steps of the ERI

Final computation of the ERI is a multi step process (Figure 6). Once digital maps containing data on the physical environment (climate, geomorphology and topography) are available, digital maps with data on stressors (or threats) are developed. These details make up the thematic basis of the basin. The integration of digital maps (spatial information) for the determination of the Ecological Risk Index (ERI) of the Paraguay River Basin was conducted using a Geographic Information System (GIS).

Identification of threats to ecological integrity Mapping of threats (land use & water use) Georeferenced information

Assignment of severity values based on the Expert meeting potential impact of each stressor on aquatic Entry of severity scores systems Space distribution of values per HU

Assignment of sensitivity values of hydrologic units Expert meeting in relation to stressors, considering environmental Entry of sensitivity scores variables Space distribution of values per HU

Frequency for each stressor Calculation of frequency for each stressor in hydrologic units considering hydrologic units GIS Operation %, area (sq km), density (unit/sq km) sq m, ranking, etc. per HU ERI - Overview

Calculation of T ERI Calculation of T-ERI (multiple scores) Threat specific Ecological Risk Index -> T ERI = severity x sensitivity x frequency

Calculation of C ERI Calculation of Composite ERI Composite Ecological Risk Index -> C ERI = ∑ Ti ERI

Validation of indexes Expert meeting Total and Composite Ecological Risk Index Validation of T ERI and C ERI ERI values for each hydrologic unit

Figure 6. Risk assessment steps for river basins 18 19

In the absence of ecosystem maps environmental variables is equal to the refl ecting the region’s environmental sum of all values assigned. diversity, ecological units were identifi ed by crossing the following environmental The assessment process involved variables: climate, geomorphology, tables that were given to each expert, vegetation, and hydrologic units. Basin which were then analysed and validated qualitative assessments and stressors by the group. The responses provided were also included, such as the by the experts were checked for attributes of spatial information obtained consistency in order to determine the through consultation with experts. number of contradictory answers. The fi nal result is shown in Table 2, which Computation of the ERI was based on covers 13 selected stressors. It shows information on the spatial distribution that hydropower plants, people and and frequency of the main stressors agriculture are the most important of aquatic ecosystems in the basin. stressors as a source of impacts to A preliminary list of stressors was put aquatic systems. together by looking at the literature. The list helped create a georeferenced The experts evaluated how each database for preliminary analyses. environmental variable is impacted in terms of the severity of stressors. The Local experts were consulted for the sensitivity was calculated from the selection and evaluation of major values assigned to each environmental stressors (Table 2). To accomplish this, variable, with respect to each of the 13 experts of various scientifi c domains stressors. Table 3 provides an example from Brazil, Paraguay and Boliva met. of the classes assigned to a particular The selection of stressors was based environmental variable in terms of the on a list covering 13 relevant sources of severity of some stressors and of the stress to the aquatic ecosystems of the sensitivity of this variable against some Paraguay River Basin. stressors under various climate regimes. This table was subsequently added to The stressors were assessed the spatial database, which allowed to individually by the experts as to their establish the location of sensitivity by severity as a source of direct impact stressor. on the functional aspects of aquatic ecosystems, as mentioned earlier. Once the list of stressors and the associated values of sensitivity The sensitivity of these functional and severity were established, the aspects against the impacts of frequencies of occurrence of stressors stressors was also assessed. Each for the individual hydrologic units were of the environmental variables was calculated. This involved crossing the assigned a class, such as low impact distributions of occurrence for each (1), medium impact (2) or high impact stressor with the hydrologic units. The (3). The final value of severity and resulting values were then scaled to sensitivity for a specific stressor “0” (not found in the hydrologic unit); and the sensitivity of the individual “1” (low occurrence); “2” (medium occurrence); and “3” severity and sensitivity and at the aggregate level. (high occurrence). For the are available, it is possible The experts described the separation of the occurrence to calculate the ERI for necessary corrections and values in these four classes, each stressor by simply adjustments. The results the frequency distribution multiplying the three factors. provided here refl ect the curve and the Jenks To ensure that the result is a adjustments made after the algorithm (1977) were used. true refl ection of the basin, a validation meeting. The idea was to identify a meeting was held to validate set of classes with the least the results with experts from possible variance within the four countries involved – group variance. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. On that Once the frequency has occasion, the results were been calculated and the presented for each stressor © TNC-ALBANO ARAÚJO © TNC-ALBANO 20 21

Table 2 – Stressors identifi ed for the Paraguay River Basin

Weight Stressor Parameter (Severity) Hydro plant 2.67 Density of UHEs and SHPs at hydrologic unit (hydro plant / sq km) Population 2.61 Population density at hydrologic unit (inhabitants / sq km) Crops 2.61 Crop lands within hydrologic unit (sq km) Deforestation 2.61 % of cleared land in the drainage unit (% of deforestation) Waterways 2.28 Length of waterways within the hydrologic unit (km) Roads 2.22 Length of roads within the hydrologic unit (km) Mining 2.17 Mining areas within the hydrologic unit (sq km) Average number of outbreaks of fi re in 2002 2008 per drainage unit Fire 2.13 (outbreaks / sq km) Livestock 2.11 Density of cattle within the hydrologic unit (head / sq km) Dams 1.94 Dam density at hydrologic unit (dams / sq km) Ports 1.67 Port density at hydrologic unit (ports / sq km) Crossings/bridges 1.56 Density of road crossings at drainage unit (crossings / sq km)

Gas pipelines 1.17 Length of gas pipelines within the hydrologic unit (km)

Table 3. Sample severity assessment by estressor. In this case, the main climate classes considered against climate sensitivity were semi-arid, dry and sub-humid.

Sensitivity to climate classes Stressor Severity of impact 123 Semi-arid Dry Sub-humid 1 Low Crops 2 Medium 2 3 High 3 3 1 Low Population 2 Medium 2 3 High 3 3 1 Low 1 Roads 2 Medium 2 3 High 3 1 Low 1 1 Crossings/bridges 2 Medium 3 High 3 1 Low Waterways 2 Medium 2 2 3 High 3 1 Low ...... Hydrological analyses

For the results of the ERI to watersheds developed by Fitzhugh be obtained at multiple scales, (2005). This series includes fi ve different thresholds for sub-basins different basin size classes – the in a hierarchical system have smallest basins ranging from 100 been established. The data set to 1,000 sq km, and the largest used for these determinations ones ranging from 1 to 10 million was the digital elevation model sq km. The different size classes Shuttle Radar Topography Mission have a hierarchical structure (SRTM/2000), which is processed where the smallest unit will always and available from a database be under the subsequent larger called HydroSHEDS (Hydrological size unit so that work can be Data and Maps Based on Shuttle performed at multiple scales, and Elevation Derivatives at Multiple also allowing headwaters as well Scales). The HydroSHEDS as small and large river beds to be database was developed by delineated. WWF and contains river basin information on a global basis and Moreover, each hydrologic unit at various resolutions (Lehner et was assigned abiotic attributes, al. 2008). It is used to perform e.g. climate, geology or global and regional assessment of geomorphology, which were used watersheds, hydrologic modelling, to defi ne existing ecological units and freshwater planning and (ecosystems) and estimate the conservation with a level of quality, sensitivity levels of the individual resolution and coverage that was hydrologic unit to different threats. previously impossible. Considering the altimetry data together with other hydrological The fi rst assessment was the data from HydroSHEDS, delimitation of sub-basins in different analyses of cumulative runoff size classes based on the SRTM were carried out and the average data (2000). The minimum unit annual fl ow per sub-basin was of assessment adopted in this calculated. Thus, the water input study were catchments basins from the basins was divided ranging from 100 to 1,000 sq km. into the following types: high, Computation of the ERI was then medium, low, and minimal. This based on these units. assessment resulted in the map of water towers for the Paraguay From the altimetry data, a series River Basin, which identifi es of hydrologic units based on the the sub-basins with the most catchment area was obtained signifi cant inputs in terms runoff using the method of nested volume (Figure 8). 22 23 © WWF-BRASIL/BENTO VIANA © WWF-BRASIL/BENTO Results Hydrological analyses

Through the model of nested watersheds developed by Fitzhugh (2005), 1,837 basin units were identifi ed (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Result of a risk assessment for 1,837 drainage units. 24 25

The slope and runoff sub basin of the Cabaçal some headwaters of the assessment (Figure 8) and Sepotuba Rivers, Pilcomayo River emerge, clearly shows which sub- tributaries on the right bank in the Bolivian department basins generate most of the of the Paraguay River, in the of Tarija. The map clearly fl ow and that contributes to state of Mato Grosso; the illustrates the importance the seasonal fl ood pulse that karst area of the sub-basin of the connection between regulates life in the Pantanal of the Salobra River, in the the central fl oodplain and fl oodplain. Standing out are Bodoquena Mountains; the remote areas of springs the areas of high input in the and the Andean area where in the adjacent headwaters. Any changes in these connections both in terms of quantity and timing of fl ows will have unforeseen impacts on the systems of the Pantanal. Therefore, areas of high and medium input, as well as headwater systems that connect them, should be a priority for conservation efforts in the basin.

Figure 8. Water input areas in the Paraguay River Basin (water towers), considering slope and runoff. Risk assessment

The analysis shows that 14% of the aquatic resources in the Paraguay River Basin are at high risk of being damaged, while 37% are at medium risk and 49% at low risk. The following map (Figure 9) derives from the composite risk index C ERI:

Figure 9. Result of a risk assessment for 1,837 drainage units.

An assessment of the spatial distribution of the most endangered areas shows that they appear to be concentrated in four different regions that have unique environmental characteristics. These regions are:

1. Headwaters and tributaries in the Brazilian Cerrado and Chiquitano Forest areas;

2. Paraguay River Basin’s Atlantic Forest area;

3. Salta Jujuy development zone;

4. Puerto Suarez and Tucavaca Valley, in Bolivia.

The stressors were divided into the three categories presented on Table 4 below.

Table 4 – Groups of stressors

Infrastructure and population Economic activities Environmental degradation People, roads, bridges, ports, Agriculture, mining, gas/oil waterways, dams, hydropower Fires and deforestation prospection plants, and gas pipelines 26 27

1. Headwaters and tributaries in the Brazilian Cerrado and Chiquitano Forest areas

This region covers the headwaters of rivers in areas of Cerrado and Chiquitano Forest surrounding the Brazilian Pantanal, which are under strong pressure from human occupation. The rivers that begin in that area and run toward the Pantanal fl oodplain are impacted by a number of sources. Nearly all of these headwaters are located in Brazil, and they run through areas of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states (Figure 10). The importance of this region is even greater as it is the leading source of water to the Pantanal basin.

Figure 10. Composite Ecological Risk Index (C ERI) map for the headwaters and tributaries located in the Cerrado and the Chiquitano Forest region.

Just as in the entire Paraguay River Basin, the three sets of stressors operate in this region. Although they are generally evenly distributed, the set of stressors with the most signifi cant share of the ERI is related to the impacts of infrastructure and population (39%), in particular roads and bridges density (Figure 11). Roads have a major potential activities, especially allowing the herd to drink impact on water resources, cattle ranching (23%) and directly from water courses especially unpaved agriculture (13%) (Figure and overgrazing, which backroads built without 14). Cattle ranching is a exposes the soil to the the technical precautions traditional economic activity erosive effects of rain, which required to prevent erosion, both in the headwaters in turn causes the soil to damming or alteration of area and in the Pantanal degrade. Large scale erosion water courses (Photo on fl oodplain. In the recent results in sedimentation of page 29). Roads built without past, there was a closer the water and siltation of any technical procedures relationship between cattle rivers and streams. are likely to be major ranching in these regions drivers of sediments and and rearing and breeding Agricultural activities are contaminants. Intersections herds in the plain, and conducted in the plateaus, of roads and water courses fattening herds in the which are fl atter and high, are supposed to be the areas highlands, with constant and have deep soils and are under greatest pressure seasonal displacement of less vulnerable to erosion since they are the primary the cattle. Nowadays, with since they have low entry points of materials into the improvement of planted concentrations of sand water courses. pastures and livestock and high concentrations genetics, rearing takes place of silt and clay. Despite With regard to the entirely in the headwaters this location, failing to headwater region in the area, thus increasing the use adequate agricultural Cerrado, in some areas number of cattle per hectare techniques for soil hydroelectric plants are a in these pastures. conservation causes key infrastructure stressor. serious impacts on water However, considering the This process caused resources, affecting water potential establishment of the herd to increase clarity in particular. Silt tens of Small Hydroelectric greatly over the past few and clay grains are smaller Power Plants (SHPs) in the decades, resulting in a and lighter than sand, and region, their impacts may bovine population that is they tend to be more easily increase considerably. Data three times larger than the removed from these soils on planned SHPs were human population in the and be suspended in water not included in this study area (IBGE, 2011). The for longer times and larger because they were not impact associated with this distances. available for its entire scope. activity is largely due to mismanagement of cattle This hinders photosynthesis The second set of stressors and pastures. Examples of in water bodies altering the is related to economic mismanagement include aquatic food chain. 28 29 © CARLOS PADOVANI/EMBRAPA CARLOS ©

Soil erosion caused by road-building in the Paraguay river basin.

Infrastructure and Population 39% Additionally, indiscriminate use of agricultural inputs like Economic Activities 34% fertilisers, insecticides and Degradation 27% herbicides is commonplace in Brazil. Pollution and contamination of rivers, streams and groundwater are already a reality in some areas, possibly causing the loss of sensitive species, making eutrophication events more frequent due to excessive nutrient loading. This leads to proliferation of microorganisms (especially cyanobacteria) and affects water supply in urban areas. Figure 11. Share of stressors by category. Stressors detailed in Table 4. including deforestation Livestock 23% and fi res (Figure 12). Even Roads 21% though they are often Deforestation 15% 12% times directly associated Fire 13% with agriculture, they have

Bridges 12% a behaviour of their own, which is connected to land Crops 8% speculation and tenure Mining 3% issues. While the regional Other 5% landscape changed more dramatically during the Figure 12. Stressors in the headwaters area of the Cerrado as a share of the Total ERI. 1970s and 1980s, even today deforestation rates higher than 1.5% per year are still being reported, Increased swine and The increase in poultry according to the Action poultry production in areas production in the region Plan for the Prevention and adjacent to soybean and is around 7% per year. Control of Deforestation corn croplands is also This growth comes in and Fires in Cerrado (MMA, noteworthy. Swine farming tandem with an expansion 2009). in Mato Grosso is expected in soybeans and corn to grow 180% by 2020 production used for animal This steady loss of natural (Mato Grosso Institute of feed, leading to increased environments, together with Agricultural Economics – pressure on rivers, springs the degradation caused by IMEA, 2010). A survey of and aquifers. the unnatural burning of companies operating in native vegetation has direct this industry shows that The third set of stressors and indirect impacts on water the swine herd grew 38% is directly related to resources by altering water between 2008 and 2010. environmental degradation, quality and facilitating erosion.

© TNC/BRIDGET BESAW 30 31

2. Paraguay River Basin’s Atlantic Forest area

The Paraguay River Basin area originally covered by Atlantic Forest is also a region with aquatic systems that are under high degradation risk (Figure 13). It has been long settled and the landscape is highly fragmented both due to the countless urban clusters and agricultural areas focused on dairy farming and monocultures, such as sugar cane. The Metropolitan Area of Asunción stands out with over 2 million inhabitants and nearly 1,000 square kilometres – the largest population density in the basin. Figure 13. Map of ERI for the Metropolitan Area of Asunción and Issues related to the lack of water Atlantic Forest in Paraguay. supply and sewage treatment capabilities are commonplace, as in most large urban areas in South America (Figure 14). It should be pointed out that about 30% of the water supply to the Metropolitan Area of Asunción comes from the Patiño Aquifer, and its uncontrolled use can lead to gradual salinisation of the water source (Foster and Garduño, 2002).

In the region are some of the Departments (states) that stand out economically in Paraguay, with a network of services supporting regional production. As far as infrastructure is concerned, the existence of the densest road network in the basin and, consequently, of bridges and crossings with drainage areas, has the most impact on aquatic systems © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO GAMBARINI (Figure 15). Asunción is also the crossing point of three development hubs in the so called Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA): the Paraguay-Parana Waterway; the Central Inter-Oceanic Hub, which connects Chile, Bolivia and Brazil; and the Capricorn Hub, which connects Asunción and Paranaguá. Here, the transport infrastructure tends to become denser and branch out to other areas, especially the Chaco.

The region brings together approximately 56% of Paraguay´s industrial businesses, mainly in the agricultural commodity processing sector. There are several plantations, sugar and alcohol mills, grain crushing mills, and cotton and tobacco processing plants. Agricultural production is geared to supplying urban areas, and it includes dairy farming, and vegetables and fruit production.

Infrastructure and Population - 47%

Degradation - 29%

Economic Activities - 24%

Figure 14. Stressors in the headwaters area of the Cerrado as a share of the Total ERI.

Roads 25%

Bridges 16%

Fire 15%

Livestock 15%

Deforestation 14%

Crops 9%

Waterways 3%

Other 3%

Figure 15. Stressors in the Metropolitan Area of Asunción and Atlantic Forest in Paraguay as a share of the Total ERI. 32 33

3. Salta Jujuy development zone

The development zone in the western side of the basin, which stretches from Salta to Jujuy and goes northward into Bolivia, crossing the headwaters of two major tributaries – Bermejo and Pilcomayo – is an important area of impact on the aquatic systems in the Paraguay River (Figure 16). It is part of the IIRSA Capricorn Hub and is expected, in addition to boosting regional development, to merge with the Pacific via the Central Inter-Oceanic Hub, connecting Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Brazil.

These hubs intersect the two main Because this is a border area crossed by tributaries on the right bank of the a transnational motorway, development of Paraguay River – the Bermejo and infrastructure as a result of an increasing Pilcomayo Rivers. These areas were population is expected to speed up over originally covered by montane forests, the coming decades. The pressure on which are known as the Yungas, and natural resources, notably water, will Chaco plain vegetation. This area is increase as a consequence. traditionally occupied by extensive cattle ranching and logging activities, and crop Emerging crops such as sugar cane, farming and oil and gas prospection are tobacco, citrus, and vegetables will rapidly increasing activities. also have a socioeconomic impact. Cultivation techniques may be divided in Considering the grouping of stressors, two types: the more traditional crops in those associated with infrastructure are fertile lands in valleys, and vast irrigated the most relevant, and once again roads, areas in the plain, which are booming. railways and bridges stand out (Figure The intensifi cation of agricultural activities 17). As mentioned earlier, one of the goals leads to increased use of inputs and the of IIRSA is to improve regional transport potential contamination of surface or systems by implementing a number of groundwater. There have been reports of road-paving and duplication projects, as contamination in the Pilcomayo Basin and well as railway rehabilitation projects. the Bermejo Valley (LIDEMA, 2010).

In addition, satellite imagery indicates a The profi le of cattle ranching is also recent proliferation of backroads on the changing. The extensive approach to cattle plains as a result of expanding agriculture. ranching was traditionally employed, where seasonal grazing areas in activities –, oil desalination that are only partially the plains or mountains causes huge amounts of degraded, and they can were used. Today, water to be contaminated generate even more toxic planted pastures have with hydrocarbons and compounds. As the local been expanding in large chemicals, such as SO2 and rainfall regime is extremely properties on the plain. SH2. In concentrations of a concentrated, dissolution mere 0.01 parts per million of these substances risks It should be stressed (ppm), they make water unfi t contaminating water that this region is a major for human consumption. courses. producer of gas and oil. In spite of being an occasional Research studies on the Degradation-causing activity, both exploration environmental conservation effects stressors include and prospecting should status of Bolivia (LIDEMA, fi re, which is a sizeable be considered important 2010) warn that source of regional impact. sources of impact. In contamination by organic Its occurrence is largely addition to prompting compounds is severe in oil associated with cattle the creation of trails for and gas exploration and ranching as it is traditionally prospecting activities – prospecting areas. These are used for the renewal of which support logging low solubility contaminants pastures (Figure 18).

© LEANDRO BAUMGARTEN/TNC 34 35

Figure 16. Map of ERI for the Metropolitan Area of Asuncion and Atlantic Forest in Paraguay.

Infrastructure and Population 40%

Economic Activities 37%

Degradation 23%

Figure 17. Share of stressors by category in the Jujuy and Salta region.

Fire 22%

Crops 19%

Roads 19%

Livestock 17%

Bridges 14%

Population 4%

Other 5%

Figure 18. Share of stressors in the Jujuy and Salta region. Stressors detailed in Table 4. 4. Puerto Suarez and Tucavaca Valley

Located near the Brazilian border, in the direction of Santa Cruz, along the Tucavaca River Valley (Figure 19), the ecological risk in this region is also high. The Tucavaca River is one of the main components of the southern Bolivian Pantanal, providing a large volume of water to the Paraguay River. The Tucavaca River originates in the Chiquitano Forest and runs almost parallel to the old railway and road that connect Corumbá, in Brazil, to Santa Cruz de la Sierra, in Bolivia.

With one of the lowest Human Development Indexes (HDI) of Bolivia, this region has experienced a gradual increase in environmentally degrading economic activities, mainly associated with Brazil’s growing demand for timber and coal and the establishment of mining ventures. It is also covered in the planning for IIRSA’s Central Inter-Oceanic development hub, which aims to improve the connection between Santa Cruz, Puerto Suarez and Corumbá and, from there, the connection between the Pacifi c and Atlantic oceans.

Figure 19. Map of ERI for the regions of Puerto Suarez and Tucavaca River Valley.

The risk assessments This upward trend in manner, where no forest (Figure 20) show that cattle deforestation may become management techniques are ranching in association even stronger once mining used (UNDP, 2009). with deforestation and and steel operations are set burning are the primary up on the Bolivian side. The This reckless use of forests sources of stress on water Bolivian government now has a negative impact on resources (Figure 21). recognises the importance water because it not only Regional cattle ranching is of regulating logging in the causes the loss of forest traditionally extensive and Chiquitano Forest. According cover and the ensuing uses fi re to renew pastures. to the Human Development problems of erosion, siltation Deforestation has been Report for Bolivia, forestry is and alterations in infi ltration stepped up in order to meet a strength for the Chiquitano and runoff, but it could also Brazilian steel mills´ demand Forest, but this is currently lead to these areas being for timber and coal. being exploited in a predatory used for cattle ranching, 36 37

which could make the Even though mining Tucavaca Valley. These situation worse. Although an does not feature as a activities pose both direct environmental protection plan major stressor, the risks and indirect risks to aquatic is in place for the Santa Cruz associated with activity systems. For instance, Puerto Suarez corridor, it is are likely to increase. the Mutum mining and only partially implemented, There are three regional steel project is using large with limited concrete results mining development hubs: volumes of water, and thus in terms of lessening impacts the Mutum project in the endangering the Laguna in the region (Arkonada & Urucum Mountain area; Cáceres (LIDEMA, 2010). Laats, 2009). Rincón del Tigre; and the

Infrastructure and Population 34%

Economic Activities 33%

Degradation 33%

Figure 20. Share of stressors by category in the Puerto Suarez and Tucavaca Valley region.

Livestock 25% Fire 18% Deforestation 16% Roads 15% Bridges 14% Crops 5% Gas Pipelines 4% Mining 2% Other 1%

Figure 21. Share of individual stressors for the Puerto Suarez and Tucavaca Valley region. Discussion and Recommendations

The central portion of the basin, i.e., the Pantanal and the Dry Chaco, displayed low ecological risk. However, the fl ooding regime in the region and the interdependence between the highlands and the plains are an indication that the situation is very dynamic in hydrologic terms. In view of the high risk identifi ed on the highlands, the cascading effect of impacts downstream will represent a proportionately high risk to the fl oodplain.

It is important to look at the should be conducted in input areas (water towers) maps in time and space, a concerted manner by should be given priority and not as a static item. implementing effective in the basin conservation In view of the above, the conservation actions on the plans. It has been noted, Paraguay River Basin has highlands and plains. however, that there is a high potential ecological considerable overlap risk, and requires immediate Given that the Pantanal is a between middle and high and priority action to floodplain fed by headwater water input areas and the protect its headwaters. systems located in the areas at ecological risk However, the management adjacent highlands and (Figure 22). and care of the basin plateaus, the high water

Figure 22. Overlap between areas at ecological risk in the Paraguay River Basin and medium and high water input areas. 38 39 © WWF-BRASIL/TUI DE ROY & MARK JONES & MARK ROY DE © WWF-BRASIL/TUI

Protecting middle and Basin, which is a region that technical studies and social high water input areas in feeds a significant amount engagement actions. The the highlands is key to of water into the Pantanal results of this project will be supporting the seasonal Wetlands in Mato Grosso. used to inform conservation flood pulse in the Pantanal. and sustainable Considering future TNC also runs the development actions in the climate change scenarios, Sustainable Cerrado area, including ecosystem adaptation measures that demonstration project in the based actions for climate enhance the resilience of São Lourenço River Basin – change adaptation. the basin would support one of the main tributaries the flood pulse and the of the Paraguay River, In collaboration with its connectivity between the which plays a key role in the strategic partners, WWF highlands and the plains, amount of sediments carried Bolivia has been pursuing and would also protect the to the Pantanal Wetlands. land use planning actions headwaters. based on municipal Another TNC-run Pantanal development plans in For this reason, WWF- protection project is being areas that provide a high Brazil and several partner implemented in partnership water input to the basin institutions have started with the Pantanal as a whole, such as the the Waters of Cabaçal Research Centre (CPP) Correreca and Curichi Movement and have been and will include several Grande River Basins. developing a project to technical studies and restore springs and fight social engament actions. erosion in the Cabaçal River It will include several The Waters of Cabaçal Movement

The Waters of Cabaçal Movement was launched in late 2008, and it was the culmination of an environmental expedition to the so called “arco das nascentes” (belt of water springs) in the Pantanal, in Mato Grosso. At the time, WWF-Brazil and its partner institutions conducted an assessment of the environmental status of the springs. The Cabaçal River Sub basin is extremely important, not only for the high erosion potential of its fragile soils, but also for its abundant surface waters, sources and springs of great scenic beauty and ecological signifi cance. The Cabaçal River Basin is a major water source for the Pantanal fl oodplain, which is a high input area (water tower).

The social and political years and has been a started working with solid mobilisation, as well as the transformational force in waste recycling. involvement of the residents town. The Environmental in the basin area with the Education programme has And the movement went environmental issues were reached about 60% of on to involve farmers – important to kick off the the population, including about 50 of them became movement. To strengthen students, public authorities involved in activities and the movement, WWF-Brazil and citizens. In the teaching workshops on the recovery set up an alliance with the environment, 75 teachers of water sources and the University of Mato Grosso from two local public development of organic (UNEMAT); the Mato Grosso schools and one state cattle ranching. Rural Extension Agency school have been trained, (Empaer); the Municipality benefi ting pre-school, Recovery of the Dracena of Reserva do Cabaçal; primary and secondary River – a secondary tributary Intermunicipal Consortium shcool students, as well as of the Cabaçal River – was for the Economic, Social, university students in the selected as a demonstration Environmental, and Tourism region. It has involved the action that allows farmers Development of the City Council with lectures to learn about soil and Pantanal Springs Complex; and drama workshops. spring recovery techniques. and local schools. Other citizens have also Six thousand seedlings been directly involved, have already been planted The movement has been for example a physical in 12 springs, and a large in existence for two education teacher who has crater is being repaired – all 40 41 © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO GAMBARINI © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO

supported by a seedling into consideration local nursery. Women at social solutions; risk were trained to make crochet hammocks and • Training of residents became involved in erosion from other towns on the restoration efforts by making environmental recovery contention screens and techniques employed in nets. In return, they receive the Dracena micro basin; baskets of staple food from the local government. • Technical visits and fi eld activity days for farmers. The movement is now being expanded and replicated in other sub-basins along the belt of water springs. The efforts involve:

• A publication on the lessons learned in Cabaçal that will focus on low cost techniques to restore degraded areas, taking The Sustainable Cerrado Project

© MARCI EGGERS/TNC © MARCI to anthropogenic compliance tools that uses – especially involve lower costs to cattle ranching. Any farmers; actions that would reduce this impact • Cattle ranching best should be a priority. practice program launched in fi ve TNC’s fi eld team municipalities across involved local the region with a view partners, which was to improving production crucial and strategic without harming the to the success of environment; the project. Its The Sustainable Cerrado solid technical base, good • Innovative technologies Project in the São Lourenço operational capabilities, to rehabilitate riparian River Basin, in Mato Grosso, leverage with local forests provided to is run by the Great Rivers farmers (which facilitated farmers. Alliance, a TNC and partners the registration of rural initiative to protect the great properties) and a strong This experience helps TNC rivers of the planet. Work ability to mobilise and make headway in the São began in four major river raise awareness in the Lourenço River Basin, where basins: Paraguay (to which production community the Water Producer project the São Lourenço Basin was a strong point, and – for the implementation of belongs) and Paraná, in allowed for activities that payments for environmental South America; Mississippi, promoted compliance with services – will soon be in the United States; the requirements for legal launched in collaboration Yangtze, in China; and reserves and permanent with its partners. Work in Zambezi, in Africa. Work in preservation areas, and the the basin has also produced Brazil began in 2006. use of sound agricultural other results in Mato Grosso, practices. Pará and Bahia. In the In the São Lourenço municipality of Lucas do Rio River Basin, TNC tested a • Over 2,000 rural Verde (Mato Grosso), TNC legal reserve legalisation properties mapped and mapped all rural properties methodology with two basic registered; – totalling 360,000 hectares goals: reducing the costs of – and fostered requirements • Environmental liabilities compliance with legal reserve for legal reserves and identifi ed through the regulations and rehabilitating permanent preservation use of cutting edge permanent protection areas areas (APPs) as well as technology and satellite (APPs); making vegetation good agricultural practices. imagery; inspection and monitoring Thanks to these efforts, more effective in the region. • Technical discussion Lucas do Rio Verde became The São Lourenço River of environmental the fi rst municipality in the Basin was chosen because compliance processes; country to have all of its it plays a major role in the properties registered in load of sediments carried • Development of more the Rural Environmental to the Pantanal and due effective environmental Registry. 42 43

Vulnerability assessment and land use planning in Bolivia

The vulnerability assessment they provide to the local while respecting rights of helped identify the most population and regional possession and use. susceptible basins in the economic activities, mainly Bolivian portion of the through water concentration Local capacities are Paraguay River Basin. and distribution. strengthened in this process Two of them are key to for the development and maintaining water fl ows In the municipality of San allowing for subsequent of the southern Bolivian Matías, in the Correreca implementation of this Pantanal – Tucavaca and Curichi Grande Basin, WWF planning tool, and helping Cáceres –, just like the is working on a municipal generate and collect technical Correreca and Curichi development plan, where and social information Grande River Basins, it identifi ed, through the so that the strategic which provide water to the vulnerability assessment, the lines of development of northern Pantanal. need to include adaptation the municipality have and risk management sustainable development While these basins are strategies in this planning as pillars, climate change offi cially considered tool. Therefore, incorporating adaptation and mitigation, protected areas, at municipal these items, including in and appreciation of the level in the case of Tucavaca, the municipal land use knowledge and customs and at federal level in the plan, will make it easier for of indigenous peoples and case of Cáceres, – within municipalities to implement communities living in the the Otuquis protected area, them autonomously region, such as Chiquitano and Integrated Management through public investments and Ayoreo. Natural Area of San Matías in the case of the Correreca MAGALLANES © WWF-BOLÍVIA/VICTOR and Curichi Grande Basin –, their conservation is at risk, particularly due to lack of a comprehensive development proposal that includes land use plans, but also due to the ever accelerating expansion of the agricultural frontier and charcoal production.

The data provided by the vulnerability assessment make a compelling case for the need to conserve these basins, not only for the biodiversity to which they are home, but also for the environmental services Protecting the Pantanal – The largest wetland on the planet

The Nature Conservancy and the Pantanal Research Centre (CPP) are working on a project to propose actions for the conservation of freshwater ecosystems in the Paraguay River Basin, with a focus on protecting the Pantanal.

The various actions will be outlined using the Ecological Risk Assessment as one of the main inputs. This is a key approach for the effective development of conservation portfolios.

This project has a technical and scientifi c profi le as it involves highly complex studies, and also a profi le of broad based social engagement. Along these two lines, it will benefi t from the work performed as part of the SINERGIA Project, which is run by the CPP and aims to engage the scientifi c community and the society on the challenges of water management in the 21st century in the Paraguay River Basin, taking climate change into consideration. © TNC/JANIE M. GREENE GREENE M. © TNC/JANIE 44 45

The work plan is comprised of six main steps: 1. Collecting, storing, organising, and sharing data and information 2. Engaging stakeholders 3. Applying the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) approach to the Paraguay River Basin 4. Ecological management of reservoirs 5. Profi ling aquatic ecosystems in the Upper Paraguay River Basin 6. Computing and assessing sustainability of the Water Footprint of hydroelectric ventures in the Upper Paraguay River Basin

The results of this study will be made publicly available through reports and publications, and will contribute to the decision making process related to conservation actions as well as sustainable economic development in the Upper Paraguay River Basin area. The studies also provide input for the assessment of ecosystem based actions required for climate change adaptation. © TNC/SCOTT WARREN WARREN © TNC/SCOTT These projects are viewed as no regret adaptation actions4 because efforts to protect water sources, rehabilitate degraded areas, create ecological corridors, and conduct land use planning ensure the basin itself is resilient, regardless of any risk and climate change vulnerability assessments.

The Dry Chaco is sparsely populated due to water scarcity, a limiting factor for human occupation on a large scale. It is also the region with the largest coverage of protected areas (Figure 23).

Figure 23. Protected areas in the Paraguay River Basin.

Nevertheless, the areas at greatest risk are those with the least number of protected areas. Not only are they insuffi cient in quantitative terms, the existing protected areas lack interconnectivity to facilitate gene fl ow of populations and increase regional genetic diversity and resilience to climate change (Figure 24). According to Combes, S. in Hansen, L. J. Biringer, J. L. & Hoffman, J. R. (2003), ecosystems naturally develop connectivity as a mechanism to adapt to climate change as this also supports migratory routes to provide access to thermal refuges for some species.

1

4 No regret adaptation actions refer to those measures that enhance the resilience of a river basin or any ecological, geopolitical or socioeconomic systems, and reduce its vulnerability to the effects of global warming. Adaptation measures are generally identifi ed by systematically assessing vulnerabilities. However, due to technical or fi nancial limitations for the development of a vulnerability assessment in many cases, some measures may be implemented without a systematic assessment of vulnerabilities in view of its well known potential to enhance the resilience of a given system. Protecting water sources and sustaining the connectivity of aquatic ecosystems is an illustration of a no regret action for the adaptation of river basins. 46 47

Figure 24. Crossing between protected areas and areas at ecological risk in the Paraguay River Basin.

The establishment of public polygons alone are not or private protected areas suffi cient for the preservation and implementation of of aquatic ecosystems. conservation measures on private land are essential In this case, ecological to ensure connectivity processes are vital, such as between existing protected maintaining water quality, blocks and ensure resilience natural water regime and of ecosystems. As far as connectivity. For connectivity, aquatic ecosystems are support should be provided concerned, the design of to ecological corridors protected areas should take comprised of riparian forests into account important areas (longitudinal connectivity) for the maintenance of water and the connection between cycles, such as areas for the the river bed and fl oodplains recharge aquifers, springs and river side lakes (lateral and sources. Protection connectivity). Hydropower plants are also a such as the Manso UHE – in remain underestimated and stress factor that endangers the Manso River, a tributary will focus on local impacts. connectivity in the basin. In of the Cuiabá River – as they It is also recommendable this study, the stress caused have less capacity to store to include data on SHPs in by hydropower plants may water and regulate water the assessment. According have been underestimated fl ows. On the other hand, the to Calheiros et al. (2009), in the maps since only local cumulative effect of various aspects of damming impact impacts are shown, and not SHPs on the water regime of prevention in the Pantanal the cascading effect along the Pantanal fl oodplain is yet include hydrologic modelling, the rivers. One hundred and unknown. A holistic approach integrated environmental fi fteen damming projects are is required to look at the assessment to jointly expected to be implemented impacts and viable alternatives determine the impacts in the Pantanal over the next to circumvent them. along the entire basin, and decade, the majority of which prescription of environmental (75%) for small hydroelectric A tool that addresses the fl ows so as to quantify power plants (SHPs) cumulative cascading medium term losses and (Calheiros et al. 2009). impacts of large, medium gains from the change in the and small hydropower plants seasonal fl ood pulse in the To start with, SHPs cause along the water course as Pantanal. lower environmental impacts a whole is recommended; than large hydroelectric plants, otherwise this impact will Likewise, the agricultural data © TNC/SCOTT WARREN © TNC/SCOTT 48 49

Figure 25. Risk map (T ERI) for cattle ranching in the Paraguay River Basin. considered only large scale production, but failed to cover small scale local production. It may be that the latter is less technology intensive and has more impacts on the soil and water. Hence the importance of gathering this data set and feeding it into a revision of this study.

Cattle ranching proved to be one of the main stressors in the basin, especially in the highlands, where the Cerrado vegetation is found. The livestock risk map clearly shows this (Figure 25). Extensive cattle ranching in the Cerrado still lacks technical support, rural extension and economic incentives. The technology does exist; however, it is not made available to farmers due to the state of dilapidation of agricultural extension agencies.

Many fi nancing banks are already changing their policies for development and rural credit as they seek to incorporate environmentally sustainable requirements to extend credit to agriculture. This is a recent development, but an important step to mitigate the impacts of cattle ranching.

As far as the Paraguay River Basin is concerned, in view of its extremely fragile hydrological system and economic importance in terms of farming production (Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states have the largest bovine herds in Brazil), it requires an effective rural extension policy and better ranching practices, such as water and soil conservation, management and recovery of pastures and crop-livestock integration (BPA / Embrapa / WWF, 2011). Conclusion

Although the ecological risk assessment method proposed by Mattson & Angermeier (2007) is semi-quantitative, when coupled with a GIS it proved to be an important planning tool, which can be used in a participatory manner and easily replicated in other regions.

As it relies on a digital database that can be easily fi ne tuned and updated, more important than being used as a risk map, it can be a dynamic portal. Therefore, it can be accessed online, and by identifying problems and confl icts, it provides quality information to managers and decision makers from different fi elds in a convenient and straightforward manner, thus enhancing the effectiveness of natural resource management. © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO GAMBARINI © WWF-BRASIL/ADRIANO 50 51

The ecological risk assessment is the be drawn for the individual industries and fi rst step in understanding the Pantanal´s communities, and they will make up the vulnerability to climate change. As noted climate change adaptation plan. earlier, in order to outline climate change scenarios for a river basin one must fi rst The political/institutional vulnerability identify and assess existing stressors assessment is now underway, and it (i.e., non-climate stressors). The next is looking at criteria for good water step is to develop a projection based on governance and integrated water the information from the global climate or resources management based on regional climate variability models in order to identify management indicators. Just a few which existing stressors will be intense to examples of political/institutional resilience a greater or lesser extent in the future, and indicators include aspects such as the also where and how these stressors will existence of river basin forums, boards occur. This makes it possible to design and or committees; presence or absence of implement effective adaptation actions. natural and water resource management bodies at state and municipal levels; Therefore, an essential step in this arenas for public participation; progress sense will be to complement the results of offi cial programme and project from this study with an assessment of implementation; and level of technical climate change scenarios for the basin. capacity of state and municipal These scenarios will be developed governments. in collaboration with the scientifi c community and key stakeholders, such as The underlying assumption is that a governments, the private sector and civil consistent, active and participatory society organisations. “social fabric”, and well prepared, trained and well equipped governments will help In addition, socioeconomic and political/ attenuate the impacts of climate change institutional vulnerability assessments in the basin. This political institutional will be conducted, and the ecological arrangement will also be an integral part vulnerability assessment presented here of the adaptation plan. will be the third pillar in this broader assessment. The socioeconomic TNC will develop a conservation portfolio assessment will look at the vulnerability for the Paraguay River Basin by identifying of inhabitants in the basin area, from priority areas and actions for conservation indigenous communities, traditional based on the principles of Systematic fi shermen and farmers to major industries, Conservation Planning. This “Blueprint” such as navigation, tourism, fi shing, also starts with the mapping of risks agriculture, etc. Recommendations will and vulnerabilities in the basin so that biodiversity can be mapped. For each implementing all these studies, which priority area, a detailed assessment of is the ultimate intention of the partners the conservation status and gap analysis involved in this publication. will be carried out, and goals and priority actions will be outlined, including Finally, the results of these studies will establishment of protected areas or be widely published and disseminated to rehabilitation of degraded areas. inform public policy making at the local, state, federal, and international levels so Therefore, it should be noted that such that they are mainstreamed in conservation efforts are distinct but complementary. and climate change policies and tools in Hence the importance of building on the region. strategic partnerships like this. In the case of the Pantanal Research Centre, the WWF, TNC and CPP will collaborate to results of all nine research subprojects help decision making bodies work to under the Synergy Project will be conserve biodiversity in this important systematized and merged in order to river basin and prepare it for the future make up an action plan to counter the uncertainties imposed by climate change. effects of climate change in the Pantanal. The Pantanal is, and will remain, an It will certainly be a part of all results of important sanctuary for several species ecological, socioeconomic and political/ and a strategic reserve of fresh water, a institutional vulnerability assessment, resource that will become even scarcer in as well as the Blueprint, with a view to the future. © WWF-BRASIL/SCOTT WARREN WARREN © WWF-BRASIL/SCOTT 52 53

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English Translation Marsel N. G. de Souza

Layout Henrique Macêdo (Supernova Design)

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With support from CPP/Sinergia, TNC/LAR, Caterpillar, HSBC, WWF-Bolivia and WWF-Paraguay

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